Knicks Morning News (2016.12.30)

  • [NYDN] Hornacek defends Carmelo Anthony, says Sefolosha had it coming
    (Thursday, December 29, 2016 8:11:45 PM)

    Jeff Hornacek was adamant Thursday that his star didn’t deserve the ejection and was merely reacting to the mugging from his opponent.

  • [NYDN] Carmelo: Phil’s breakup with Jeanie Buss puts Lakers rumor to bed
    (Thursday, December 29, 2016 12:31:31 PM)

    Carmelo Anthony says he never viewed Phil Jackson’s relationship with Jeanie Buss as the conduit for the Zen Master’s escape to the Lakers.

  • [NYTimes] After an N.B.A. Christmas, the Best Games This Week
    (Thursday, December 29, 2016 5:05:30 PM)

    The Cleveland Cavaliers edged the Golden State Warriors on Sunday. Can the improved Boston Celtics expose Cleveland’s weaknesses on Thursday?

  • [ESPN] Friday’s Knicks News: Leaving New York an easy decision for Langston Galloway
    (Friday, December 30, 2016 5:45:48 AM)

    Friday’s Knicks News: Leaving New York an easy decision for Langston Galloway

  • [ESPN] Carmelo on ejection: Sefolosha flopped a little
    (Thursday, December 29, 2016 9:19:26 PM)

    Carmelo on ejection: Sefolosha flopped a little

  • [ESPN] Jazz’s Hill back Thursday after 13-game absence
    (Thursday, December 29, 2016 2:50:27 PM)

    Jazz’s Hill back Thursday after 13-game absence

  • [NY Newsday] Kristaps Porzingis’ blocks charity up to $43G for NY hoops program
    (Thursday, December 29, 2016 11:52:48 PM)

    Knicks star Kristaps Porzingis’ campaign to raise money through his blocked shots has generated $43,000 thus far for a New York-area youth basketball organization.

  • [NY Newsday] Carmelo Anthony: That’s it for Phil Jackson to Lakers idea
    (Thursday, December 29, 2016 11:07:00 PM)

    Carmelo Anthony joked that Phil Jackson’s chances of returning to the Lakers took a major hit when he and Jeannie Buss ended their engagement.

  • [NY Newsday] Jeff Hornacek defends Carmelo Anthony after ejection vs. Hawks
    (Thursday, December 29, 2016 5:48:00 PM)

    Jeff Hornacek defended Carmelo Anthony for hitting Thabo Sefolosha in the face during a tussle for a rebound Wednesday, and said he sometimes he wants to “wrap” his hands around the referees’ necks to see how they would react.

  • [SNY Knicks] Did OT loss prove Melo’s worth?
    (Thursday, December 29, 2016 6:57:56 PM)

  • [SNY Knicks] Porzingis’ play suffered Wednesday night after Melo’s ejection
    (Thursday, December 29, 2016 11:30:20 AM)

    Carmelo Anthony was ejected just over three minutes before halftime during the Knicks’ 102-98 overtime loss to the Hawks on Wednesday night.

  • [NYPost] Carmelo gets testy when asked about latest George Karl dig
    (Thursday, December 29, 2016 10:42:53 PM)

    NEW ORLEANS — Carmelo Anthony, who is blamed for almost everything that goes wrong with the Knicks, joked to not pin blame on him for the Phil Jackson-Jeanie Buss engagement breakup. “You want to ask me if I had anything to do with that?,’’ Anthony quipped. Actually, Anthony was queried on whether he thought Jackson…

  • [NYPost] Why leaving Knicks was an easy decision for Langston Galloway
    (Thursday, December 29, 2016 6:25:18 PM)

    NEW ORLEANS — After getting married to his high-school sweetheart from Baton Rouge, La., on June 25, Langston Galloway got a phone call the next day from Jeff Hornacek. The Knicks new coach said he wanted to re-sign Galloway, thinking he would fit in well with the team’s vision of a high-speed attack. At the…

  • [NYPost] 2016’s biggest sports splashes, from the Sanchize to Linsanity 2
    (Thursday, December 29, 2016 12:24:20 PM)

    Even without a championship to celebrate, 2016 was another year to remember for the New York sports world. Emerging stars such as Gary Sanchez, Kristaps Porzingis and Jimmy Vesey injected new energy into the city, even as longtime veterans such as Henrik Lundqvist, David Wright and Jacoby Ellsbury battled performance and health issues. Linsanity returned to…

  • [NYPost] Jeff Hornacek’s bizarre excuse for Carmelo Anthony ejection
    (Thursday, December 29, 2016 12:00:58 PM)

    NEW ORLEANS — Knicks coach Jeff Hornacek fiercely defended Carmelo Anthony on Thursday, saying he believes Anthony’s second-quarter ejection — for throwing a forearm at Thabo Sefolosha’s head — the previous night in Atlanta was the wrong decision. Anthony showed no remorse and also said he believes he was wronged, even suggesting the Swiss shooting…

  • [NYPost] How 2016 set up New York’s next sports golden era
    (Thursday, December 29, 2016 9:14:46 AM)

    Quietly, 2016 slipped away without bringing a championship to New York City, which means that for the first time in 48 years, we have endured a five-year window in Fun City without throwing a party for ourselves. The quiet zone of 2011-2016 pales to the last great drought (the ’62 Yankees through the ’68 Jets)….

  • Liked it? Take a second to support Mike Kurylo on Patreon!

    Mike Kurylo

    Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

    91 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2016.12.30)”

    1. Funny. As I get older and read the ongoing debates here, I understand the comment, there are no new stories.
      – Eyeball v. Data.
      – Who would one take over Melo?
      – Panic, frustrations and calls for tanking after a tough loss.
      – Disparaging comments about role players.
      – A complete lack of recognition that role players rarely offset lost starters, like the Knicks losing Melo and Lee. Most teams that lose two starters lose.

      I think the Knicks have performed better than expected. They are basically a .500 team with potential to be better.
      Why?
      1. If Noah continues pulling down double digit rebounds, and near double digit scoring while also being heavily active on D, this team gets much better.
      2. Rose can be inefficient, but I can see where he is causing havoc for the defense and creating space for other Knicks.
      3. KP is only going to get better.
      4. Melo is what he is.
      5. Lee has been a solid addition.
      6. Jennings is an effective back up.
      7. The Knicks have a solid young core of contributors.
      8. If the Knicks can limit “bad” Rose who tries to do too much, they win more games. (I think we saw bad Rose because KP went through a dry spell in the middle of the game).
      9. The East is shitty, man.

      I think they’re a playoff team. After the wreckage of last year, that is no small accomplishment.

    2. I agree with you Frank. And I would add that Phil is maybe being somewhat successful at having his cake and eating it too. That is, he’s trying to rebuild and have a competent team at the same time. He has a bunch of veterans and a bunch of youth at the same time (the most rookies of any team in the NBA). Since the general assumption here and in other places is that you can’t do both, this is a fascinating experiment. The Knicks have been pretty good at finding overlooked talent, so that gives me hope.

    3. I’m not worried about this season (I think we have a 55% chance to make the playoffs), I’m worried about the next two, when our core players (apart from KP, Willy and maybe KOQ) will be worse and getting too much cap space.

    4. Quote:
      The “hard” sciences–like physics and chemistry–make progress because strong-minded, intelligent people question previous theories in order to either strengthen or topple those thoeries; even though Isaac Newton’s Theory of Gravity provided a useful model for many centuries Albert Einstein questioned it and ultimately replaced it with a more complete theory (Special Relativity). Can any intelligent, open minded person really believe that within the past five to 10 years the “stat gurus” have “solved” basketball to the extent that their mantras should never be questioned and that all one needs to do to understand the sport is to stop watching games and start devouring spreadsheets? “Stat guru” advocates like Henry Abbott tend to refer to my articles about this issue as “cranky” and they suggest not too subtly that I am some kind of anti-stat Luddite who is stubbornly clinging to outdated notions but the reality is that the field of “advanced basketball statistics” would benefit more in the long run if its practitioners critically examined their methodologies instead of basking in Abbott’s praise while snobbishly dismissing valid critiques.

    5. Except the current advanced stats metrics in use in basketball are much more predictive than neoclassical macroeconomic theory was for pretty much, well, anything.

      No ones saying that stats are uncontroversial and infallible. People are saying that stats should take precedence over eye test in judging player productivity more often than not. Yet another straw man. Sad!

    6. Further reading on why the only rational approach is the eye test plus stats:

      http://20secondtimeout.blogspot.com/2008/10/economics-is-not-science-nor-is.html?m=1

      Let’s call the BS on those who try to force others to abandon common sense in favor of hand-picked, erroneous data. Unfortunately, most of them are not interested in the truth; they just want to win the argument and their blind adherence to hand-picked stats is just the ultimate appeal to authority. The fallacy goes like this: “numbers don’t lie; therefore this little (flawed) statistical nugget prove my point”…

    7. No ones saying that stats are uncontroversial and infallible. People are saying that stats should take precedence over eye test in judging player productivity more often than not.

      False. Stats should go hand in hand with the more rigurous, complex and ultimately more accurate eye test conducted by a trained eye. Yes, a trained eye, not a moron who knows nothing about basketball, the same way stats can only come from trained minds, not morons who know nothing about basketball or statistics.

      That’s the simple truth.

    8. Quote:

      Unfortunately, the general public suffers not only from illiteracy (or at least poor reading comprehension) but also from “Innumeracy.” If I make a skill set-based comparison of two players based on my informed opinion–i.e., an opinion based not only on watching a lot of basketball but also on interacting with professionals who make their living evaluating basketball players–every Tom, Dick and Harry thinks that his opinion is just as valid and informed but if some guy invents a formula, gives it a catchy name and says that player x is worth 30.2 but player y is worth 28.7 then Tom, Dick and Harry are ready to bow down to those numbers as if they are the Golden Calf. Guess what–all those numbers reflect are the knowledge (or lack thereof) and bias of the person who created that formula; the numbers may be 90% correct or 90% incorrect but most people don’t understand math or statistics so they don’t feel comfortable challenging the numbers, or else they only lash out at the numbers that speak poorly of “their guy” but they love the numbers that elevate “their guy” and/or downgrade “their guy’s” rival. One tell-tale sign that these numbers are not the products of science is that you do not hear their creators speak of margin of error. If a scientific formula spits out the number 30.4 as a player value the reality is that there is a certain probability that the actual value is somewhat higher or lower than that–but the “stats gurus” rarely if ever mention this and they certainly don’t emphasize this point as much as it should be emphasized; they like to promote the idea that their numbers are “exact” while observations by seasoned professionals (scouts and other talent evaluators) are subjective. It is true that observations are subjective but so are the stat formulas; that is why intelligent people understand that you have to combine observation with statistics and that you have to watch games in order to figure out what the numbers…

    9. Theo makes a great point by distinguishing between the “trained” eye test vs. the “average” eye test. Is it uncommon for the average high school student to think Paul George is a top 10 player? Hell, he’s on the cover of 2K, after all. But as someone who’s been watching basketball for years and years now, it’s safe to say I can make an educated guess at his production and it’s surely no where near top 10.

    10. Okay the Knicks have to get this victory in New Orleans or else we’re gonna go under .500 after the Houston game. The Knicks need to keep hold of the #5 seeding because we can definitely beat Charlotte but we don’t stand a chance in a 7 game series against the Celtics. I’d rather beat Charlotte and get beat in the 2nd round by Cleveland than to get my hopes up in a tough series against Boston only to get smoked by Toronto because Kelly Olynk ripped KP’s shoulder out of place “diving” for a rebound. I honestly want to avoid a playoff series with Boston much more than I want to avoid one with Cleveland. Boston is too dirty a team and I refuse to risk the long term health of Kristaps Porzingis. I don’t think we’ll be fighting for a playoff seed and I do think that we need to figure out a way to get our most productive players (Billy, JoNo, and O’Quinn) on the court for more time if we want to win. Unfortunately all of our non Courtney Lee guards aren’t exactly productive enough and it’s going to hurt down the stretch. I wonder what it would take to get Lou Williams and Nick Young out of LA.

    11. Theo makes a great point by distinguishing between the “trained” eye test vs. the “average” eye test. Is it uncommon for the average high school student to think Paul George is a top 10 player? Hell, he’s on the cover of 2K, after all. But as someone who’s been watching basketball for years and years now, it’s safe to say I can make an educated guess at his production and it’s surely no where near top 10.

      That’s exactly my point: the best and most powerful approach is the eye-test PLUS stats.

      But it seems a lot of people here just want to dismiss all that very important data that numbers can’t capture. Insane.

    12. But it seems a lot of people here just want to dismiss all that very important data that numbers can’t capture. Insane

      Oooh, it’s time to self righteously pull the stuffing out of some straw men

    13. Blind adherence to stats led to some of the ‘stats experts’ here (like “Clueless Joe Jowles”) saying LeBron is the best NBA player, but not the most productive and that he should not be in the starting lineup of the Best of NBAteam because other players have ‘better stats’!!!!

      If he is not the most productive player and the stats ‘prove it’, why do these same people consider him the best NBA player? Why not give the distinction to whoever their stats point to?

      I repeat: any statistical analysis that results in LeBron being out of the starting lineup in favor of an inferior player is grossly inaccurate and needs immediate revision.

    14. This information and postings is my contribution toward keeping the blog sane and balanced. These debates shed much-needed light on the often-murky eye-test vs stats controversy that should not be one in the first place: eye-test and stats should go hand in hand as the main tools of intelligent basketball commentary and analysis.

    15. The quetion isn’t whether or not eye test and advanced stats should be used together, that’s a no-brainer. The question is, which is better on its own? There really is no refuting that advanced stats are better than even the most trained eye using per game stats. Nowadays, a computer could probably do a better job of team-building than most GMs and coaches without the use of advanced stats.

    16. stats should go hand in hand with the more rigurous, complex and ultimately more accurate eye test conducted by a trained eye.

      Theo, I could requote a lot of your posts in this thread but this one sums up my thoughts exactly. Eyes gather data that numbers can’t. There’s an old baseball phrase: “That play won’t show up in the stat sheet.” It applies so much more to basketball where effort and hustle are not quantified. Kudos for posting this. Those who use one and disregard the other are the ones who fail. Neither can stand alone.

    17. No trained eye can tell the difference between .54 and .56 TS%. A trained eye doesn’t mean shit–Mike Malone’s trained eye said Nikola Jokic belonged on the bench and Rick Barnes trained eye said KD belonged at shooting guard.

      When I say that stats take precedence over the eye test that doesn’t mean we discard the eye test. That means that if the eye test and advanced stats clash (they actually don’t in about 90% of cases), you should probably put more confidence in the deliverances of the stats–without simultaneously discarding the considerations the eye test brings to bear.

    18. No one is arguing that we should only look at stat sheets Jesus fucking Christ some of you people cannot read.

      Stop giving credit to someone who’s tilting at windmills!

    19. The question is, which is better on its own? There really is no refuting that advanced stats are better than even the most trained eye using per game stats. Nowadays, a computer could probably do a better job of team-building than most GMs and coaches without the use of advanced stats.

      How would you know that? And why isn’t anyone doing it (letting the computer make the decisions)? Do you really think *everyone* in the NBA is so ignorant and stupid nobody sees what you see?

      Finally, why this fixation with determining whether stats or eye-test is best when you acknowledge they *complement* each other?

      Absent proof that just looking at numbers alone gives us the compkete picture, embracing the hybrid (eye test/stats) model makes all the sense in the world.

      This is not rocket science, guys. And that, by the way, is what everyone in the NBA is doing: combine their trained eye and expertise with statistical analysis. Some teams are more successful than others for the simple reason…it’s not a science!!!!!

      See?

    20. Frank

      I think we need to make a move before the deadline. Either toward win now mode or future improvements. Sounds like Phil wants to do both. It I don’t want to be one and done in the playoffs and miss the lottery like many of us.

      Having said that, what is the best move?

    21. We lost a game on the road in OT against a decent team with 2 of our starters basically missing the game and with Rose not being able to consistently hit his previously reliable floater. The KB vultures were eagerly waiting in the wings to pick at the corpse.

    22. @23 I think we need to poach the Lakers of their veteran guards in a trade. Lou Williams and Nick Young would go a long way towards improving our offense. As much as those two love LA (and trust me they do), they don’t really fit on a rebuilding Lakers team as their both over 30 years old. We’d have to get a 3rd and maybe 4th team involved but those are the guys we need. Of course since Phil and Jeanie broke up I wouldn’t hold my breath.

    23. The problem with this Knicks team is we need more reliable guards. We’re solid from 3-5 if the right guys get minutes but we’re not getting enough production from the back court on either end of the court.

    24. No trained eye can tell the difference between .54 and .56 TS%.

      Sure, the same way TS can’t tell the difference between effor or lack thereof, attitude, anticipation, defensive skill, interaction, situational decision-making, etc., etc.

      That’s why both the eye test *and* stats must be combined for best results. Alone, they are limited. Together, they are very powerful.

      BTW, what is the margin of error for those two numbers you provide? That’a crucial distinction, you know?
      O.54 and 0.56 are virtually the same if the margin of error is equal or greater than 0.02, right? Do you realize that the data used to reach those numbers is fairly subjective (coming from a human using his EYE TEST to determine what the numbers are!!!!!)?

    25. Silky put it best: “No one is arguing that we should only look at stat sheets Jesus fucking Christ some of you people cannot read.”

      stats are still a useful tool and they will continue to be so for the smarter teams in the league, like the Rockets we face tomorrow.

      but if you say “stats are a better tool than the eye-test” people will read it as “don’t even watch games, just look at stat sheets”, so not much can be done.

    26. Point to remember: all the numbers used in statistical analysis come from HUMANS using the EYE TEST to determine when a rebound or basket or foul, etc, is entered into the game data.

      Think about that one.

      We are not dealing with science here, guys!

    27. one prime example: we spent 20 posts discussing Ntilikina yesterday, and every single one of my posts explaining why he would be an exciting draft pick and a potential top 5 guy have been instantly ignored by reub.

      there’s no point in discussing if people won’t even read what others write.

    28. but if you say “stats are a better tool than the eye-test” people will read it as “don’t even watch games, just look at stat sheets”, so not much can be done.

      And that’s when you see stupid people like Jowles saying LeBron is the best player in the NBA but he should not start for the NBA’s best team because the numbers say he is not the ‘most productive’. And you see lots of morons thinking that it makes all the sense in the world…because the numbers say so and Jowles knows more that they do and why bother questioning the numbers even if the conclusion is patently absurd?

    29. I’m stuck on players like Rubio and bad defense or dragic who Riley won’t let go unless we overpaid.

    30. Theo, LeBron is the best player in the game, I don’t think anyone rejects that idea, and he would 100% always start for the team composed of the best 5 guys in the NBA.

      but his production has not been the best he’s ever been, this is just a fact, there’s no need to get so damn triggered about it.

      if LeBron decided tomorrow to give 100% every single regular season game, he would be the most productive player in the NBA by a long margin… but he’s a smart veteran that’s saving himself for the playoffs, that’s all.

      I’m pretty sure if even Jowles had to choose the best 5 players for a team, he would 100% choose LeBron, and yet you keep talking as if anyone argued he’s not the best player in the league.

    31. Theo, LeBron is the best player in the game, I don’t think anyone rejects that idea, and he would 100% always start for the team composed of the best 5 guys in the NBA.

      but his production has not been the best he’s ever been, this is just a fact, there’s no need to get so damn triggered about it.

      if LeBron decided tomorrow to give 100% every single regular season game, he would be the most productive player in the NBA by a long margin… but he’s a smart veteran that’s saving himself for the playoffs, that’s all.

      I’m pretty sure if even Jowles had to choose the best 5 players for a team, he would 100% choose LeBron, and yet you keep talking as if anyone argued he’s not the best player in the league.

      This is a perfect example of why numbers are not enough by themselves and need the eye-test in order to reach valid conclusions: your eye-test has determined LeBron is ‘saving himself for the playoffs’ (which I can agree with). A moron luke Jowels ignores the eye-test data and concludes that not starting him is fine because the numbers point to at least 5 pkayers more ‘productive’ than him!!!

      Glad you presented an example that proves the point I’m making: stats are best when combined with the more-encompassing eye test.

    32. Lou Williams and Nick Young would go a long way towards improving our offense.

      Oh, God, please no swaggy P. We have a hard enough time making good passes without one of our own players intercepting them.

    33. but that’s what silky was arguing before: we haven’t ever said stats are perfect by itself, you and others have read that and started screaming and shouting.

      like I said, whenever I write that I think stats are more useful as analytic tools than pure eye-test, people read that as “he’s saying we don’t even need to watch games!!!!”, which is simply not true and a stupid interpretation of that phrase.

      something can be more useful than something else without rendering the less useful one completely useless.

    34. and please please no Swaggy P, we endured JR for so long, there’s no need to get his less talented clone.

      he is shooting amazingly well this season, incredibly, but there’s no way he suddenly turned from a career .534 ts shooter to a consistent .631.

    35. The irony of course is that the more stat-oriented among us have reached pretty much the same conclusion that Theo has, which is that the Knicks are not really all that great. It’s the eye-testers who seem to think this team is some kind of contender.

      So basically Theo thinks every poster here except himself is an idiot.

    36. It’s funny that most posters are saying the exact same thing, yet arguing for the sake of arguing. Meanwhile over at Poasting & Toasting, anyone that says anything remotely negative is mocked with unfunny memes and gifs.

    37. It’s the eye-testers who seem to think this team is some kind of contender.

      Not true. Some might, but not most. Most people here (regardless of whether they are eye-ballers or stat-heads) would say this team will end up in the .500 – .575 range which translates to 41-47 wins.

    38. We should take a very hard look at Josh Hart and Justin Jackson (and Joel Berry if he declares) in the mid second round and Diego Flaccadori in the late late second.

      Hart has been the best player in the NCAA so far and has a blistering .67 TS while filling the stat sheet shad playing quality defense.

    39. Point to remember: all the numbers used in statistical analysis come from HUMANS using the EYE TEST to determine when a rebound or basket or foul, etc, is entered into the game data.

      Think about that one.

      Nobody tell this guy about scientists

    40. The irony of course is that the more stat-oriented among us have reached pretty much the same conclusion that Theo has, which is that the Knicks are not really all that great. It’s the eye-testers who seem to think this team is some kind of contender

      Yes, some fans here do think the team is better than what you or I think. Some of them use the eye test only. Some use both, some use stats only and point to them as proof we have great players who only need to revert to their former glory for the team to flourish.

      But it’s also true that some of the stat-heads here stubbornly refuse to accept the obvious: Rose has not been as bad as they predicted and he has a very strong impact on team performance. They are not good, but Rose does make them better.

      So, both parties are at fault and you should mention it.

      Finally, no, I don’t think I’m smarter than everybody here. Never said that or pretended that. I have presented my arguments like everyone else. YOU have reached that conclusion on your own. Why? Only yo know…lol…ob the other hand, yes, I do think SOME posters are truly stupid or inane and I just ignore them.

    41. Dillon brooks might be a good look in the second round as well.

    42. I don’t know if anybody is checking the numbers but Nick Young has posted a TS% of .631 and an eFG% of .606 this season and only makes $4M this season. I absolutely would add him to the Knicks.

    43. Yes, but have you used the eye test? He’s lackadaisical, and lacks the heart of the champion and the fluidity and feel for the game that any good player needs, TS% be damned.

    44. @50

      I just wrote that, he has been absolutely insane, but this number is .100 better than his career average… unless he suddenly changed bodies with James Harden that screams regression all around.

    45. But yeah, I don’t want players that help our win total improve from 40 to 44. Either make my team worse for the picks or make it significantly better.

    46. Swaggy has 13,000 minutes under his belt in the NBA that prove pretty conclusively that he is not an efficient scorer. You don’t need the eye test to figure out that his 750 minutes from this year are very likely an outlier and that he is due to regress to the mean.

    47. Even if he regresses 60 points he’s still better than our guard rotation. I’m not suggesting we get only Nick Young, though. I’m saying the combination of Nick Young and Lou Williams would make us a lot better if we managed to keep our front court intact.

    48. “one prime example: we spent 20 posts discussing Ntilikina yesterday, and every single one of my posts explaining why he would be an exciting draft pick and a potential top 5 guy have been instantly ignored by reub.

      there’s no point in discussing if people won’t even read what others write.”

      @33 I’m sorry that you felt I was ignoring you, Bruno. Honestly I wouldn’t mind drafting him if Phil and company think that he’s good enough. I just differ on the whole tanking issue. Life is too short.

    49. it’s just that you were so caught up in arguing against tanking at all costs that the discussion felt useless, every argument I made met the same response.

      today we will get to argue about everything else again when the pelicans game starts lol

    50. I will try to be more sensitive to the feelings of others next year. Except for Jowles.

    51. The quetion isn’t whether or not eye test and advanced stats should be used together, that’s a no-brainer. The question is, which is better on its own? There really is no refuting that advanced stats are better than even the most trained eye using per game stats. Nowadays, a computer could probably do a better job of team-building than most GMs and coaches without the use of advanced stats.

      I just fell out of my fucking chair.

    52. @50 – That’s a perfect example of stats telling half truth’s. Nick Young is one of the most polarizing players in the NBA. I can start listing non-statistical reasons why I wouldn’t want him on the Knicks if you need to see them.

    53. This “stats/eye-test” debate is tedious for a simple reason: neither party agrees on a mutual premise which would allow them to disprove the other’s argument. One side won’t accept statistical data in favor of a subjective interpretation and the other side can’t accept someone else’s interpretation because its subjective.

      I personally think the “eye-test” is important insofar as it can be used to contextualize data sets. But, ultimately, its the data which everyone should use to quantify a player’s value. The problem I see here is that people don’t really understand what certain data sets are really saying. A stat like WS/48 for 2016/17 season doesn’t tell us who is the better player in absolute terms. It says who is contributing more wins to their team so far this season. Its important not to conflate the two. Its also important to understand how that fits within the larger context provided by the eye test which may account for differences in production due to external factors not considered in the WS equation like injuries, a player’s role in a particular offensive system, etc.

    54. It’s not that a person can’t use his or her eyes to see more than some flat formula applied to everyone in the same way. They def can. It’s that subjective views don’t make for good conversation. If my eye test says X and yours says Y, how do you decide who’s right? Your conversation is done.

    55. #62

      Exactly. The reason statistics exist is for the simple reason that two subjective parties won’t be able to come to a mutual conclusion without some form of abstract measurement they can accept. We need a shared premise to base our observations upon in making these types of determinations.

    56. but if some people stand their ground and refuse to accept statistical evidence as relevant, well, that kinda makes it impossible to find that middle ground.

      the problem I see is with projection… I like advanced stats because they can generally show how a player typically performs and thus you have a way to understand if what’s happening on the court in on par with statistical evidence or if it’s under or over performing. However, people get angry when their preconceived ideas get rebunked by the stats and choose to believe the most improbable stuff will happen, like the whole Rose debate.

      it’s much more likely given the statistical profile for their whole careers that Noah will be good and Rose will be bad, and while it’s certainly possible for Rose to improve, the stats show it’s highly unlikely… you can choose to believe something highly improbable will happen, but to me for example that’s not a good choice most of the times.

    57. but if some people stand their ground and refuse to accept statistical evidence as relevant, well, that kinda makes it impossible to find that middle ground.

      Which is exactly the reason I find this debate tedious. You can’t have a rational argument with an irrational party.

    58. The thing is, I would guess that most GMs know something about advanced stats, but disregard or undervalue them anyway. That’s why they make so many stupid decisions. It takes balls to disregard the eye test. Rudy Gay looks damn good when he’s swishing that pure jumper of his and rockin’ the rim. Rose looks “vintage” when he puts in three or four of those impossible reverses of his in a row. But neither guy is particularly productive relative to his contract.

      But hey, I still love watching the game. I love watching those reverse layups and pure jumpers. And if the guy’s on my team, I’m gonna hope he plays at an outlier level. But most of the time, the player becomes who advanced stats say he was before he got here. Some guys are more complicated, but most aren’t. And over time, as I have become more familiar with advanced stats, the 4 factors, etc., it definitely has affected how I put my own eye test to work.

    59. @Z-man

      in the end, your job security depends on the owner, who is less informed than you are. The more you conform to traditional talent evaluation methods, the less blame you will receive from a poorly informed owner when your team sputters. It’s typical corporate culture: keep your head down, don’t do anything controversial, don’t speak out against the stupidity, and you won’t end up a target when shit hits the fan.

    60. yeah, I agree with both Z-Man and latke.

      owners are also generally clueless about basketball, they have million other businesses to look after and are mostly looking to satfisfy their egos… they are much more likely to trust a GM that has basketball history and sticks to conventional (and financially profitable) ideas. Stars bring fans to games, even if they suck.

      just look at how the Spurs were always considered to be a “bad tv team” when they were incredibly good for such a long time.

      it is very naive to think that GM’s don’t understand this sort of stuff and aren’t under any sort of pressure.

    61. @ 15 “Are you being obtuse? ”

      Be careful about using that phrase, remember what happened to Tim Robbins in the Shawshank Redemption after he uttered that to the warden…..

    62. in the end, your job security depends on the owner, who is less informed than you are. The more you conform to traditional talent evaluation methods, the less blame you will receive from a poorly informed owner when your team sputters. It’s typical corporate culture: keep your head down, don’t do anything controversial, don’t speak out against the stupidity, and you won’t end up a target when shit hits the fan.

      That’s right. What Hinkie did, for example, was controversial, and his embodiment of Bay Area venture capitalist techno-revolutionary memery was easy for the layman to dislike, but he really was a creative thinker in a league full of old-hat yes-men. That’s a large part of why he got fired. That and a propensity to draft big men with leg injuries.

      There was an article about white noise and free throw “psyche-outs” several years back. Researchers went to Mark Cuban with an idea to create a “field of background motion” that had some evidence behind it. He abandoned the idea after a few games because the Lakers shot 78 percent (league average) during a single game.

      http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/11/magazine/scientific-freethrow-distraction.html?_r=0

    63. Thanks, guys, for bolstering the eye-test position by enumarating the myriad factors that influence decision and playing in the NBA!

      It’s clear that basketball statistics, flawed and subjective as they are, are still a very powerful tool when put to work at the service of good basketball minds and their eye test.

      That’s all for now. Have an enjoyable evening, everyone!

    64. keep your head down, don’t do anything controversial, don’t speak out against the stupidity, and you won’t end up a target when shit hits the fan.

      took me a long time to figure this one out – truer words could not be spoken though…

      back to basketball…i knew my statistical ignorance would pay off one day: eye test only here folks; and, if it ain’t something in your typical box score – well then, shirley it must not exist…

      It’s not that a person can’t use his or her eyes to see more than some flat formula applied to everyone in the same way. They def can. It’s that subjective views don’t make for good conversation. If my eye test says X and yours says Y, how do you decide who’s right? Your conversation is done.

      Exactly. The reason statistics exist is for the simple reason that two subjective parties won’t be able to come to a mutual conclusion without some form of abstract measurement they can accept. We need a shared premise to base our observations upon in making these types of determinations.

      stop being so freaking rational will ya…it’s a sport, we are fans – none of this is supposed to make sense…

      who needs external validation anyways – i have a thought, it’s in my head, hell – good enough for me…

    65. That’s an interesting article, Jowles… Didn’t there used to be a guy at Knicks games who would bring a sign that looked like this and wave side to side when opponents took free throws?

      On another note, I’d love for us to trade for Hezonja. he’s been awful this year, and the Magic seem to have given up on him — 12 DNPs so far this season. He wasn’t that bad last year… maybe we could trade them Holiday for Mario? He’s so young and has 2.5 years left on the rookie deal.

    66. nice job latke…i looked at the image for like half a second and now it’s burned into my retina…

    67. @75 that’s perfectly fine geo, nobody can tell you what to think.

      but this is a discussion board in the end.

      and I would trade for Hezonja if it only costed Holiday, he’s still under contract for the next 2 years… I personally think he sucks, but Holiday is probably playing at the peak of his ability while Hezonja could potentially be better.

    68. who needs external validation anyways – i have a thought, it’s in my head, hell – good enough for me…

      Who need’s extrenal validtion anywy? If I look at earth and the groun is flat, the earth it is flat am I rigth?

    69. @ 15 “Are you being obtuse? ” ….remember what happened to Tim Robbins in the Shawshank Redemption after he uttered that to the warden

      I’d like to believe this exchange took place after the non-Triangle offense was clicking:

      Phil: Jeff, I’d like you to play the pure Triangle.
      Hornacek: Are you being obtuse?
      Phil: No Jeff, this is an acute situation.

      Ba-dum bump. I’ll be here all week. Also available for New Year’s Eve parties.
      If you’ve forgotten your geometry – or is it trigonometry? – this will clear it up.

    70. honestly bruno…for the most part, i just really enjoy reading the way a lot of you write (there’s some seriously smart and funny folks whom kick in on this site)…i used to also spend a lot of time on posting and toasting – but, that can get a little too cheerful and positive for my taste – ‘baby, i like it raw’ ;-)

      i get a kick out of what you write bruno because your’re normally very straight forward and logical about such a passionate subject…not only that – you’re so damn polite, which is in such stark contrast to most of the rest of us…

      all the stats give my brain the feeling of slogging through mud…some of it is a little interesting though at times…

      cuz we’re talking sports and about a particular a team which i’m a big fan of – emotionally the season is a big roller coaster ride for me…and, i realize my perspective on the players, coaches and management will change daily…trade em/keep em – trade em/keep em…

      i really enjoy the bickering/debate stuff – it gives me a warm and fuzzy and reminds me of growing up and having dinner with mom and my sister wherein we would take turns ridiculing each other about some little individual oddity…

      our residents cynics really are whom give me the biggest feeling of being back home (without having to endure the crazy cold weather)…

      my joy or sorrow for the evening will no doubt be affected in some way by how this dysfunctional team performs in the next few hours (used to be worse when i was younger) – either way i know i’ll be coming here to either rejoice, vent or find some small point of solace…

    71. Who need’s extrenal validtion anywy? If I look at earth and the groun is flat, the earth it is flat am I rigth?

      and, the answer is – okay???

      what the hell happened to you’re spell check…hey – you’re not suffering from blurred vision/speech or numbness anywhere are you?

    72. On another note, I’d love for us to trade for Hezonja. he’s been awful this year, and the Magic seem to have given up on him — 12 DNPs so far this season. He wasn’t that bad last year… maybe we could trade them Holiday for Mario? He’s so young and has 2.5 years left on the rookie deal.

      I totally agree with you about Hezonja (although I really like Holiday). That Orlando situation has gotten up there among the league leaders like Sacramento in terms of a lack of direction and a clear plan. They’re terrible, but they’re kind of trying to win, they keep benching/jerking around their young guys, the roster is a mess. Hennigan got an extension just last year but he’s coming up on his 4th anniversary in charge and they’ve really stalled out. Seems like his entire tenure they’ve had some vaguely talented young guys but none who really are anything more than that – I’m guessing his seat is getting quite warm. Basically I’m saying there are some reasons Hezonja’s development might have stalled out, I liked him going into the draft and he showed promise last year. I’d love to liberate him.

    73. @81

      well, I’m a weird half-norwegian, half-brazilian professor, so the politeness and the straightforwardness make a lot of sense… english is not my best language so I tend to write more carefully too.

      I do get very emotional with the Knicks, but since most of my other favorite teams are pretty much used to winning all the time, I guess I just got used to a different level of expectations.

    74. There was an article about white noise and free throw “psyche-outs” several years back.

      Breen once asked Clyde if there was anything a fan ever held up which diverted his attention while shooting free throws. Frazier responded there was only one thing: a picture of a naked woman!

    75. half-norwegian, half-brazilian professor

      Well, there goes DRed’s claim as “handsomest poster.”

    76. hahahah
      it’s funny because my brazilian mother thinks I look norwegian, and my norwegian father thinks I look more brazilian… I’m fine either way lol

    77. If you’ve forgotten your geometry – or is it trigonometry? – this will clear it up.

      hell no – i ain’t clicking on shit here for a while (unless i suspect it may involve some kind of porn or drugs – i have vices, so what)…not after latke fucked me up with that evil spinning image bullshit…which i can still see by the way – almost an hour later…

    78. Right now I’d want more than Hezonja straight up for Holiday.

      He’s arguably a younger, better version of Courtney Lee right now and I don’t think you trade Lee straight up for Hezonja except to get out of Lee’s contract.

    79. Right now I’d want more than Hezonja straight up for Holiday.

      He’s arguably a younger, better version of Courtney Lee right now and I don’t think you trade Lee straight up for Hezonja except to get out of Lee’s contract.

      Holiday would be a rental for Orlando, and they’re going nowhere this year. He is an unrestricted free agent after this season.

    Comments are closed.