Hubert was faced with religious fervor and reacted accordingly.
OG’s individual defense is “helping” the Knicks’ team defense in much the same way that grabbing the ice bucket from the Titanic bar and bailing the water would have helped the doomed passengers.
Their team defense stinks. Drilling down a bit, notwithstanding the fact that by reputation at least, they have three excellent wing defenders in OG, Hart, and Mikal, they’re next to last in three point % allowed.
Where’s OG in guarding the trifecta line?
Five-man lineup data is notoriously SSS, but the Knick starting lineup leads the association in minutes played together (258). Its defensive rating is 118. That’s worse that the DRat of the team as a whole (116.4).
The four-man lineup of OG, JB, Hart, and Mikal also leads the association in minutes together (307). Their DRat together also stinks — 118.8. Swap in KAT for OG in that four-man, 272 minutes together … better DRat, 117.8. Swap in Deuce for OG, very SSS (48 minutes) … better DRat, but only marginally at 118.6.
Lies…. damnable lie…. and statistics, something, something.
Nah … what it is is that while OG can get up in people’s shit one-on-one, that’s a tiny component of modern association team defense. That’s the lesson in all of this.(*) Which is why, for example, the Knick team defense stinks and the lineups in TO didn’t get any worse and even got better when they substituted out OG for … cough … other people.
(*) Which for me is a good lesson regarding the eye test. If your eyes focus only on what a dude is doing on-ball when your eyes are caught, you’re missing a bunch of stuff. In the end, “individual defense” really isn’t all that important in the grand scheme, especially when everyone’s an association-caliber player and elite athlete.
And I’m old enough to remember when OG and Mikal were going to shut down Tatum and Brown ….
Five-man lineup data is notoriously SSS, but the Knick starting lineup leads the association in minutes played together (258)
KAT/Hart/Mikal/Brunson: 272 minutes, DRat 117.8
This is a 14min sample size without OG.
This is not how you isolate variables.
Eye test is really all you need to determine OG’s defensive impact. Trying to diminish his impact on defense is really a silly undertaking. He’s clearly one of the very best non-rim protecting defenders in the NBA. Full stop.
He is also a pretty good but not great offensive player. If one is going to compare him to all-time greats (he’s clearly not one) it should be someone like Pippen. He’s not Scottie Pippen on either end, but he’s a damn good poor man’s version.
Is he worth what we gave up for him? Most definitely.
Is he worth what he is getting paid? Probably not, but he could probably still easily be traded on his deal if he stays healthy.
And that is literally the only concern we should have about OG. He is an excellent starter on a contender-level team. He’s our Derrick White, who the Celts acquired and now extended at a colossal bargain.
Now, that said, might there have been better ways to expend RJ, IQ, a virtual first, and upwards of 25% of the cap (and Precious should be factored in, he’s pretty good!)? Sure. But there were way worse ways too. We’re not talking Tobias Harris here.
Login, see 9 comments, anticipate an interesting conversation to lurk
Wroooooong
Now, that said, might there have been better ways to expend RJ, IQ, a virtual first, and upwards of 25% of the cap?
Then you fundamentally agree with the fundamental assertion involved.
Dejounte Murray is shooting under 27% so far this year
“Then you fundamentally agree with the fundamental assertion involved.”
Not at all, beyond the assertion that nearly every transaction involves a theoretical opportunity cost. I don’t have one iota of buyer’s remorse about OG beyond lingering concerns about his durability. And as you well know, I am not a member of the RJ Haterz Hive. I just think OG is a far better sidekick to KAT and Brunson, and would have been to Julius and Brunson if we stood pat. Leon may have paid a premium, but it was for a sound reason. Trashing OG’s impact is just unnecessary. It’s fucking as obvious as hell.
I have WAY more buyer’s remorse about Mikal. And I like Mikal, but the price we paid was outrageous and unprecedented. Quibbling about OG’s cost of acquisition and salary is boring in comparison.
Dejounte Murray has only played 30 minutes this season, thus far. Kind of a small sample size for his shooting percentage.
Doogie, how do you feel about the conclusions drawn from a 14 minute sample above?
Now, that said, might there have been better ways to expend RJ, IQ, a virtual first, and upwards of 25% of the cap?
Then you fundamentally agree with the fundamental assertion involved.
Actually, no.
The modal MIGHT is generally used to describe things that CAN, but are unlikely to happen.
I actually think at the time it was very unlikely to get a better player than OG for Barrett and IQ. I’m still of that opinion. You disagree, which is certainly fine đ
There might not be a more irrelevant team in the NBA right now than the Toronto Raptors.
“I actually think at the time it was very unlikely to get a better player than OG for Barrett and IQ.”
And that’s essentially it, isn’t it? The 31st pick was also a fair price for Precious. Flynn was worthless.
OG was only available because he was an impending UFA. The risk of somewhat overpaying him after acquiring him was fully considered in the context of a) RJ already being overpaid and b) IQ about to be overpaid. (i’d be nauseous if he were on our books for #32M AAV, so let’s see how that ages for Masai.)
It was reported that RJ was largely viewed as a toxic asset, and that there were multiple suitors for OG both pre- and post-trade. Not sure what IQ could have been offered if he went RFA, but if a “smart” guy like Masai thought he was worth locking up at $32M without letting IQ test the market, one would think Masai is not the kind of GM to unwisely bid against himself.
Now, one measure of value is: what would the return be for RJ and IQ on their current deals in a fire sale trade vs. the return for OG on his current deal? How will that proposition age? It’s a fair question.
But in terms of fit, even if Leon paid a smallish premium, seems like nothing to be bent out of shape about.
“There might not be a more irrelevant team in the NBA right now than the Toronto Raptors.”
I don’t think this is true. They are getting their injured players back, and they should be a pretty good, pretty deep young team once they do.
Randle not passing to Rudy last night was pretty funny. Maybe he’s too used to playing with Mitch.
As for OG, I agree with Hubert that he’s overpaid. I just don’t understand why anyone needs to say that again and again and again.
“Doogie, how do you feel about the conclusions drawn from a 14 minute sample above?”
I feel that it is just as useless than the 30-minute sample size, if not moreso.
I think Hubert is mostly reacting to people who are saying âOG is underpaid,â which I also think people are mostly saying kind of tongue in cheek. I mean, is there anybody here who sincerely believes heâs UNDERPAID? I think people are just being kind of cheeky when theyâre saying that.
If you look at other players in OGâs salary range, you see some guys who are better value, some who are worse. Theyâre all veterans who have had some success in the league. Generally itâs hard to squeeze a ton of surplus value out of guys in this range. You want Zion Williamson for $36M? I really wouldnât. Heâs probably not gonna outperform that contract. Brandon Ingram? Nah. Michael Porter Jr? Pass.
There are Tyrese Maxeys and Darius Garlands and SGAs mixed in there too, and those guys are all excellent surplus value players. But I look at the list of guys making 35-40M a year and it seems like OG kind of belongs there. Heâs a plus starter. If you donât have an agenda and arenât using arcane noisy on-off numbers to boost whatever shtick youâre trying to do, itâs rather obvious heâs a plus defender who can credibly guard 1-4 and isnât a zero on offense. Thatâs a plus starter, and on the free market that is what plus starters cost.
A number of things can be true.
OG is a bit overpaid
OG is the best wing defender for the Knicks in 50 years.
OG makes a very big impact that isn’t measured by BPM
OG is a ton of fun to watch.
OG is reasonably young
OG has given us reason to doubt his future durability
OG probably is the best player we could have acquired
I agree with what Z-Man said above and what a lot of people have said. The price we paid for Bridges is far more of an issue for me.
But hey, if having OG bothers people, no skin off my back.
There doesn’t really seem to be much of an alternate history here. A few people seem to think we should have kept our powder dry for something. I just am never sure quite what. Giannis?
I don’t think RJ, IQ, and a billion picks would have gotten us Giannis.
I just donât understand why anyone needs to say that again and again and again.
I donât want to. My preferred topics of conversation have been Sixer schadenfreude (their over/under is down to 38.5!) and marveling at how greatly I underestimated KAT.
I would love to never think about how much weâre paying a career 0.1 BPM player who misses 1/3 of his teamâs games. But 2-3 times a week someone turns up here to run the most unearned victory laps in blog history about it.
I did not bring OG up. I replied to this:
OG is outplaying the hell out of the price we paid for him
Maybe in retrospect that was subtweeting E and carrying on the RJ nonsense (talk about a tired topic) instead of being a direct shot at my position but it sure looked like a ridiculous victory lap to me.
The last time I talked about it was in response to âwho thinkâs OG is overpaid now?â More of the same.
I am impressed by the stats ptmilo presented yesterday and am willing to reconsider some of my priors when a case like that is made. I do want to look up some other guys using the same methodology before I do. But I would put a moratorium on running victory laps bc you think a $42M player with a 0.5 bpm is definitively outplaying his contract.
And it just so happens I started drinking herbal tea instead of cappuccino yesterday.
“Heâs a plus starter. If you donât have an agenda and arenât using arcane noisy on-off numbers to boost whatever shtick youâre trying to do, itâs rather obvious heâs a plus defender who can credibly guard 1-4 and isnât a zero on offense. Thatâs a plus starter, and on the free market that is what plus starters cost.”
While I largely agree with the premise, this is not really a comprehensive way to look at it. The question should include: How many players are there earning significantly below what OG is earning that deliver similar or better value? (not including those on rookie deals)
Hubert postulated that OG would be great value at something like $20M AAV but is woefully overpaid at $40M AAV. That’s not where I am but not a crazy thought.
The problem is that teams who have the OGs of the world on at-or-below market value deals hold on to them for dear life, and only trade them for a king’s ransom.
I think Bridges is in a similar tier to OG, and look what it took to pry him loose from the Nets.
Alternatively, look what it took for Minny to pry DDV on his deal away from us!
That’s where you have to give Brad Stevens (and Ainge before him) lots of credit. They were excellent at sniffing out the White’s, KP’s, and Jrue’s of the NBA…guys who were both worth more than they paid and who they could retain on team-friendly deals.
In that sense, I don’t think that either the OG or Mikal deals measure up. That’s not to say that th OG deal was “bad,” just not anything close to a steal when compared to the moves the Celts made, or the Randle/DDV/Brunson/iHart/Mitch/Deuce deals.
You could even throw Hart’s deal in there. We got him for a lottery-protected first, and extended him for $19M AAV. Is he that much worse than OG? If not, then either Hart was a ridiculous steal or OG is a substantial overpay on both ends.
OG is almost the perfect bookend to my love for David Lee. The delta between what box score stats say about those two guys on the Knicks is pretty enormous.
When I referred to “the price we paid for him,” I was referring to the trade, as evidenced by the past tense, contra “the price we are currently paying for him.” I strongly believe that Barrett, IQ, and the 31st pick was a small price to pay for a player of OG’s caliber (and his Bird Rights, of course).
RJ is in his 6th season and has a 93 TS+ without much of a tertiary game, IQ is near and dear to my heart but not particularly close to OG in terms of impacting winning (at least not yet, I am on the record as noting I believe this is a known unknown that could impact backward looking analysis of the trade), and the 31st pick in the 2024 NBA draft wasn’t a great asset (concur with Z-Man that most teams looking to win would’ve happily traded it for Precious).
I find conversations about OG’s salary to be droll for two reasons:
1) it was baked in from the moment we traded for him because the Pistons, at a minimum, were ready to hand him a blank check
2) if you can trade a player for value at the drop of a hat, and I am 100% certain we could do so with OG, I think said player defeats any and all “overpaid” allegations
And it just so happens I started drinking herbal tea instead of cappuccino yesterday.
That’s great. đ I don’t practice what I preach because i’m still team coffee. đ
I don’t know, relitigating this stuff just seems so boring to me. We’ve got a good team. We’re going to get two very important pieces (Precious and Mitch) back soon (and also hopefully Shamet at some point).
I’d much rather discuss FUTURE moves we should make. Whether that’s adjustments Thibs needs to make or moves Leon should make, to improve the team we have. We know we’re pretty good but also probably still a step behind The Cavs and Celtics.
Theoretical past trades we could have made or holding the powder dry because maybe Jokic would one day become available…just seems like such a pointless exercise in hand wringing at this point. The moves have been made.
Relitigating moves is what fans of shitty teams do when they have nothing else to talk about.
What I’m saying in general is that I think it is fair to feel that Leon paid too much of a premium for “fit” over performance in the case of both OG and Mikal, and that these overpays combined might hamstring their ability to improve the team to compete with OKC/BOS and soon some others.
But this is where the real craft of GMing comes in. No one (certainly not me) saw the KAT deal coming at such a cheap price. Very few anticipated the breaking up of the 4-Nova core. As such, I don’t want to assume that just because our pick cache is largely spent that guys like Mikal and OG, or even KAT, are untouchable. Seems like Leon is never sitting idly by, marveling at his Magnus Opus. Let’s see how things play out between now and the deadline.
Nah ⌠what it is is that while OG can get up in peopleâs shit one-on-one, thatâs a tiny component of modern association team defense. Thatâs the lesson in all of this.(*) Which is why, for example, the Knick team defense stinks and the lineups in TO didnât get any worse and even got better when they substituted out OG for ⌠cough ⌠other people.
(*) Which for me is a good lesson regarding the eye test. If your eyes focus only on what a dude is doing on-ball when your eyes are caught, youâre missing a bunch of stuff. In the end, âindividual defenseâ really isnât all that important in the grand scheme, especially when everyoneâs an association-caliber player and elite athlete.
area man discovers optometry and purchases eye patch
I love (I actually hate it) how this site has managed to fulfill all doomsday positions with different users at the same time.
There’s the OG is shit camp, the Bridges is shit camp, the KAT is shit camp, there’s always been a Josh Hart is shit camp, there’s even been some attempts at Jalen Brunson has been exposed, the ongoing Thibs is shit camp has been around for a while too.
And then whatever happens on the games causes a shift towards which camp gets more or less vocal.
I’ve honestly just been swifting this season and I’m enjoying it quite a bit, I’m enjoying the wins and not sweating much the losses, and it seems to fit better the experience of watching a 82 game regular season.
“Thereâs the OG is shit camp, the Bridges is shit camp, the KAT is shit camp, thereâs always been a Josh Hart is shit camp, thereâs even been some attempts at Jalen Brunson has been exposed, the ongoing Thibs is shit camp has been around for a while too.
And then whatever happens on the games causes a shift towards which camp gets more or less vocal.”
I don’t get how you see things this way…even with the tongue-in-cheek element considered.
No one, and I mean no one, is suggesting that any of OG, Bridges, KAT, or Hart is “shit” in any way that you could possibly be justified in using that adjective.
Most of the arguments are about whether the trades were worth making based on opportunity cost.
I get all the reasons why one might be annoyed by those arguments:
-we have the best sustainable team to root for since the ’90s
-no use crying over spilt milk
-it’s too early to judge
-no need to employ hyperbole, distortion, conjecture, or speculation to die on a stupid hill
But I actually enjoy the conversations on these things during off-days. Some of it is tedious, but mostly folks are talking in good faith, and not in a way that suggest the camps you laid out.
Edit: the Thibs shit camp is very real, although it has only one full-fledged member and a few non-member sympathizers.
I have the emotional reaction that Bruno has, although I concede the subtle subtexts that Z-Man alludes to. And in fact I might be labeled in the camp of “Brunson is exposed” after a few posts, although that was never my position.
My position, and YMMV, is that Brunson is still figuring out his perfect role on this particular make-up of the team. To put it super-simplistically I’d rather he average 25-10 (pts-assts) than 28-8. An example of this was the latter half of the Wiz game, where it pretty much ended up KAT-JB-KAT-JB over and over, with both OG and Mikal nowhere to be seen. Macri made a good point after the game that when the mismatch is there, you have to go to work and punish it. But I would offer the counter-argument that when a game seems well in hand, you might want to work out the kinks in a new offense and get your super-capable other teammates involved.
Also solve the double-team-at-half-court faster. It’s going to be there all year.
OG isn’t any better than Josh Hart. Josh Hart makes $18,144,000.
In team building terms, they already had whatever OG brings to the table in Josh Hart.
I don’t think Thibs is “shit” at all. He’s probably not the guy you want for the final push to modernity and the highest heights, but we’ll see.
Once we traded for OG, didnât we have to pay him even if it was âabove marketâ? If Philly or Detroit had swept in and signed him, we would have basically given up RJ and IQ for nothing.
So if you think heâs a massive overpay, then you should be anti-trade as well right?
Once we traded for OG, didnât we have to pay him even if it was âabove marketâ?
Of course. TNFH is saying that’s a feature — or at least an unavoidable necessity — when actually it’s a bug.
“So if you think heâs a massive overpay, then you should be anti-trade as well right?”
Now we’re getting somewhere!
It should be fun to see how many points a cup motivated Celtics team can put up on the Wizards.
“An example of this was the latter half of the Wiz game, where it pretty much ended up KAT-JB-KAT-JB over and over, with both OG and Mikal nowhere to be seen.”
Do you mean the Wiz game or the Suns game? I’m asking because the same exact thing was said about the latter portion of our game against Phoenix, almost verbatim (“KAT/JB/KAT/JB,” “OG and Mikal disappeared,” etc.)
And of course I’m not discounting that the same thing could have happened in *both* games.
OMG E nobody fucking cares!
Like canât we just tell him to shut the fuck up already?
I agree with Z-Man that it’s perfectly well and good to discuss broad strategy and individual moves on slow news days, but people who maintain literal shticks are annoying.
I mEan, I’m old enough to remember when it was a travesty that we traded the 24th pick in the 2023 draft for that hustlebunny scrub Josh Hart.
That’s been exposed as laughable, so it’s been quietly discarded. The update is we already had OG Anunoby, one of the most coveted players in the NBA, in Josh Hart.
That right there is not good-faith discussion, it’s a guy doing a bit.
Log time reader, sometimes poster. The repetitiveness of the OG, RJ posts is becoming overwhelming. And quite frankly not fun. It has been basically the same thing said over and over. It has been covering a huge percentage of the topics.
Thread after thread ruined by one dude bitching about one player and pining for dudes that arenât here anymore.
Go write some fan fiction multiverse story where we have cam reddish, RJ and Dejonte already and leave us the fuck Aline with your bullshit.
Trying to diminish his impact on defense is really a silly undertaking.
I would say diminishing his ability on defense is silly. Impact is reasonable, though.
He might be the best perimeter defender in the world but heâs kind of easy to avoid. Over the summer I compared him to a brick wall and said teams arenât just going to run into him. They can easily bypass him by going at Brunson or setting a screen on Bridges. Hence our defense sucks despite his greatness.
OG needs to be paired with a big to make the most impact. OG & Hartenstein were dominant. OG & Precious are dynamic. OG & Mitch might be special. I think itâs fair to wonder if Towns at C will always diminish OGâs defensive impact. (Itâs doing wonders for his offense, though.)
In team building terms, they already had whatever OG brings to the table in Josh Hart.
They’re very different players with very different skillsets.
Raven, I would only go so far as to agree that Brunson has a bit of an ego and wants to prove that guarding him with the Ryan Dunns and Kelly Oubres of the world is not going to stop him from getting to his spots and scoring.
My concern is that he is going to get worn down if he keeps insisting on going toe-to-toe with defensive wings on every possession. But since that is going to be a consistent tactic in every game he plays, I also see the logic in learning how to punch through it. At the end of the day, his iso scoring is critical and he needs to show other teams that he can’t be guarded one-on-one by anyone. I just worry about him getting banged up early in games.
Only caveat is that I’m not going to break out 24 TOR from 24 NYK, but since the empty building year, every one of OG’s teams has been bad at guarding the three-point line. League rank, 3PT defense percentage:
“Like canât we just tell him to shut the fuck up already?”
Like, sure, you can tell him whatever you want, but of course he is under no obligation to comply with your wishes in any way, shape, or form. That’s how these forums work.
Your only real recourse is to appeal to the site owners for a banning, but I see literally no reason why he should be banned. He’s only expressing his opinions repeatedly much to your dislike (and to mine as well, to be honest), but he’s allowed to do that, and you’re allowed to not read them (or to block his comments, if you want to be Draconian about it).
I donât think âstealâ should be in the discussion. We paid market value for a free agent. Itâs the default position. Itâs one of the reasons Iâd prefer building through the draft: only the really elite GMs are going to consistently get surplus value from free agent signings. Leon Rose has done pretty well, but I wouldnât classify him as an elite GM. He has a hit and miss record with FA signings. More hit than miss actually. Hasnât had too many outright whiffs and has done well with some. Paid market value for others. Heâs done better than I thought he would, but heâs not in that elite tier.
The Derrick Whites, the guys you sign for $30M and give you $40M of value, those guys are relatively rare. The reason youâre able to acquire a guy like that in the first place is because somebody else undervalued him. OG was never going to be that, because he was never going to give you $50M of value. But heâs also not a BAD signing, because heâs a productive player who suits our needs. As of now, heâs pretty much playing up to his contract. Does not look horribly out of place when you look at other players making a similar salary. 31st highest paid player in the league, and that is just of the subset of players who are no longer on rookie contracts.
Like most FA contracts, thereâs a good chance it wonât age well. For now, his contract is fine.
I still think the main issue is the PoA. As Strat says, Mikal is miscast in the role. The on/off data for drtg has him at +18.8. On the other end of the spectrum, Deuce has the best defensive on/off at -9.2.
This makes sense to me because Deuce, for his other defensive shortcomings, is pretty good at scampering around screens, while Mikal runs headlong into them and too often can’t get back into the play.
Moving Mikal off the PoA should help the defense quite a bit. He’s good using his long arms to contest shots in most other contexts despite playing pretty far back, allowing him to contain drives (which I think hurts him on screens because he’s too far away to go over).
Thibs has used OG at the PoA more the last few games. Hopefully that’ll help solve the issue and keep the starting offense together.
I think that Leon’s biggest “blunders” are opportunity costs associated with punting draft picks for young players with upside. He changed that this year (Kolek/Hukporti/Dadiet/McCullar), so we’ll have to see if he learned anything or if this year was an anomaly.
Thatâs been exposed as laughable, so itâs been quietly discarded.
Oh, I was wrong about Josh Hart. I wasn’t wrong about what it showed about Leon’s improper treatment of first-round draft picks, and the hustlebunny thing Josh was kind of a part of (against his will) was very annoying — but absolutely wrong about the player.
“OG needs to be paired with a big to make the most impact. OG & Hartenstein were dominant. OG & Precious are dynamic. OG & Mitch might be special. I think itâs fair to wonder if Towns at C will always diminish OGâs defensive impact. (Itâs doing wonders for OGâs offense, though.)”
Again, it’s still a silly thing to argue. It’s like arguing that having Darrell Revis has no defensive impact because the opposing QBs are just beating guys on the other side of the field. The answer is to address the other side of the field. So the impact is there, just not optomized yet.
In other words, if you are arguing that the defense misses iHart, Mitch, and Precious (and now Deuce) that’s totally fair! But that’s not on OG. It’s still a lot harder to game plan against a defense when a “brick wall” renders one side of the court or one player much less effective. And then there’s the whole funneling thing that ardently Thibs believes in but obviously is a mirage because KB posters think it’s stupid.
The biggest glaring hole in our defense right now is KAT. The efort is there, but he changes directions like an aircraft carrier. He is extremely heavy on his feet and once he lurches it’s over. Hopefully Thibs can tinker with his footwork so that he reaches and lunges less. Then comes Brunson, who is just so physically limited that without 3 good wings and a good defensive C he is exploitable. OG, Mikal, and Hart help a lot with that, but they can’t do much to offset KAT’s deficiencies. That’s where Mitch and Precious come in. But OG’s impact is still very much there on virtually every possession.
Given the fact that OG’s teams have never guarded the three-point line well — a trend accelerating here — a plausible working theory is that a lot of stuff outside the eye test in terms of rotations, shading, switching, close outs and the like — as well as general defensive processing and feel — aren’t really working that well for him — which would explain the disconnect between his eye test skill and the fact that it doesn’t really translate to team defense that well.
It of course could also be all the other players’ fault, but I’ll never be in the “OG can’t fail, he can only be failed” business.
Z-man just (rightly) mentioned Deuce, but it’s like we barely talk about the guy anymore! We could really use him—anyone know what his prognosis is?
“the fact that it doesnât really translate to team defense that well.”
Sorry E, I’m going with ptmilo’s stats on that one…not to mention the most obvious eye-test verifiable fact most of us see with perfect clarity.
I wasnât wrong about what it showed about Leonâs improper treatment of first-round draft picks, and the hustlebunny thing Josh was kind of a part of (against his will) was very annoying â but absolutely wrong about the player.
This is just such an odd construct that only you believe in or understand. Turns out Josh Hart isnât so much of a hustlebunny after all, he was just forced to do hustlebunny things, uh, against his will or something.
He looks like pretty much the exact same Josh Hart he has always been to me, but I guess I just canât see that Tom Thibodeau had the great non-hustlebunny awakening and now he doesnât force Josh Hart to hustlebunny anymore so Josh Hart is free to be the excellent player he always was.
You keep doing you, dude. Keep being a weirdo. Iâm here for it.
I predict that we will see lots of KAT at the 4 once Precious and Mitch return. Or when the Knicks acquire a better option as a sidekick defensive 5. I don’t think KAT would be as detrimental at the 4 as he is at the 5, and his passing thus far makes me optimistic that he’d still be just as effective on O in a team offense sense at the 4.
Hey, Torquemada what do you say?
âI hate RJâ
Speaking of “isolating variables,” it’ll be funny if the defense improves materially with Precious/Mitch and then people credit OG for the improvement.
Anyone care that we are on a 4-game winning streak without our starting or back-up 4 (Precious), our back-up 5 (Mitch), and our first and best player off the bench (Deuce)? Seems pretty good to me. (Yes, I know that the Nets, Wiz, and Suns aren’t great, but we have to play who is in front of us, right?)
And if we’re going to argue about something, I’d rather it be whether our starting line-up should have Precious or Hart in it. I could probably go either way on it, but when I take into account Hart’s probable feelings about it, it would be difficult to remove him from our first five when he is playing so damn well for us. Precious would more likely be just as happy to come in late in the first quarter…….but we’d still have to find a way to experiment in parts of games with line-ups that include both KAT and Precious to see what that might look like.
And if weâre going to argue about something, Iâd rather it be whether our starting line-up should have Precious or Hart in it.
Both. Mikal hasn’t earned staying in ahead of Josh, and Mikal should be freed up for point forward second unit duty as well.
“a plausible working hypothesis”
Fixed that for you.
And since I just pulled a Doogie, Doogie you are probably right it was the Suns game. I’m so underwater on a project I have no clue what day it is. Obviously.
“Speaking of âisolating variables,â itâll be funny if the defense improves materially with Precious/Mitch and then people credit OG for the improvement.”
I don’t see why anyone would do that, so it would only be funny in the “wow, that’s really stupid!” sense. Sort of the way this comment of yours is funny.
against his will
By any metric that can actually capture an iota of defensive contributions (e.g., +/- metrics) OG has been approximately a top 30 – 50 player this year. Top 30 – 50 players who are not one-dimensional or rim runners get paid the max or near-max almost invariably. He’s not overpaid. He’s likely paid market value, which at our place on the win curve is perfectly fine to do.
By the way, OG’s biggest defensive contributions are, contra some in this thread, off-ball/not at the point of attack. There are several possessions a game where switches onto 2, 3, or 4 guys and single-handedly blows up an offensive possession. He’s a terrific help defender and free safety. He’s only playing PoA right now because Mikal is also a pretty good free safety/help defender and a much worse PoA defender when the ball-handler knows how to call for a screen.
“Both. Mikal hasnât earned staying in ahead of Josh, and Mikal should be freed up for point forward second unit duty as well.”
That definitely has some merit. I think that our overall team defense in the starting unit *might* suffer to some small degree, but moving Mikal to the second unit (hopefully with Deuce back) should solidify that unit and mitigate any small potential losses in the first five. The more I think about it, the more I kind of dig it.
(And if it somehow *totally* didn’t work, Thibs could more easily move Mikal back to the starting unit and Precious to the second unit than he could by moving Hart back and forth. So we’d have a Plan B, in effect.)
“(Yes, I know that the Nets, Wiz, and Suns arenât great, but we have to play who is in front of us, right?)”
Yes, but those teams aren’t just “aren’t great”…they abjectly suck. So I’m not all that juiced about it, beyond it’s better than losing!
“And if weâre going to argue about something, Iâd rather it be whether our starting line-up should have Precious or Hart in it. I could probably go either way on it, but when I take into account Hartâs probable feelings about it, it would be difficult to remove him from our first five when he is playing so damn well for us. Precious would more likely be just as happy to come in late in the first quarterâŚâŚ.but weâd still have to find a way to experiment in parts of games with line-ups that include both KAT and Precious to see what that might look like.”
Yeah, I suspect that Precious will come off the bench and any experimentation will occur in the late-first/early second Q to start. But if a guy starts roasting KAT repeatedly like Sengun did, it might be used at ends of games as well.
Player X can’t be good at defense because the team is bad on defense can very easily be explained by understanding the team could be worse on defense. I think ptmilo did a good job of laying this out yesterday.
Anyone care that we are on a 4-game winning streak without our starting or back-up 4 (Precious), our back-up 5 (Mitch), and our first and best player off the bench (Deuce)? Seems pretty good to me.
Yes, indeed. And perhaps exactly because our competition was weak, we were able to practice certain offensive sets until they felt routine.
The Sims dunks on the PnR strike me as exactly that. It’s prolly a play designed for KAT, but thanks to garbage time, plus Mitch and Precious being out, we run it with Sims. Next man up. I like it. Sims having those reps may be valuable in March.
On the D. Let’s hope the guys are working on our flaws in the same way. That’s what Nov/Dec are for. Keep a goin’
It pains me to say this since Hubs and E are such kindred spirits that I’ve been accused of secretly being one of them, but…
This OG melancholia is really quite over-the-top, morose, and belabored. As the poster boy for those attributes, I know something about them.
There’s a mountain of evidence showing that he’s an elite defender, and his offensive skills are very clearly more than adequate for his role. The contract is fair and only figured to get fairer over its lifespan. We didn’t fleece the Raptors in the trade, but we didn’t get fleeced either. He really is the least of our worries.
The arguments employed to attack OG’s on-court value by these generally highly astute and intelligent posters are so poor they border on disingenuous. Lineup data based on 14-minute sample sizes? BPM when we know its predictive and descriptive value collapse with this specific type of player? You guys are better than that.
Why not EPM, which pegs OG as a borderline All-Star?
Likewise, the idea that OG isn’t valuable on defense because he doesn’t make us elite by himself is just not reasonable. With Brunson and Towns at the 1/5 and Mikal having pulled the Scooby-Doo reveal that his defense was just an old man in a monster mask all along, OG is very likely the only thing keeping us from being bottom 5. Elite offensive teams with mediocre defenses can win. Elite offenses with horrendous defenses can’t. Right now OG is the thread by which our defense hangs onto mediocrity. It would be better if he was putting us over the top on that end, but his services are still immensely valuable.
“On the D. Letâs hope the guys are working on our flaws in the same way. Thatâs what Nov/Dec are for. Keep a goinâ.”
That’s basically how Andy Reid seems to approach the regular season: Experiment a bit (especially in the first halves of games), and then tighten things up for the playoffs. Seems to work.
I just want Precious in the rotation enough to spell our trio of wings, which means time with either Sims or KAT. Hopefully we stop getting crazy minute totals. Deuce would help too.
Precious/Hart might kill our spacing.
That’s not the idea though, which is instead, Player A can be really good on defense, but his team can still be really bad on defense — because really good individual defense ports to ultimate team defense very narrowly and crudely.(*)
It’s not, “The Knicks’ team defense sucks, therefore OG’s individual defense sucks; it’s “the Knicks’ team defense sucks, so there isn’t much to care about whether or not OG’s individual defense is good.”
Nothing about last year’s TO lineup data really confirms the on/off OG stuff, either.
(*) And now that we’ve seen the team 3 point data from the last five years, we can sketch a partial outline of how and why.
What are you on about E?
Team DRTG on/off. Lower is better.
2025 -3.0
2024 NYK -14.5
2024 TOR -5.9
2023 -2.3
Thereâs a mountain of evidence showing that heâs an elite defender,
There really isn’t though, and there’s plenty to suggest that either he isn’t or that the connection between that and quality team defense makes it virtually irrelevant.
Experiment a bit (especially in the first halves of games), and then tighten things up for the playoffs. Seems to work.
Yeah, and the absence of Precious and Mitch kind of forces Thibs to see what Sims, Huk, Dadiet, Kolek can do, especially in the blowouts, obvs.
As a proud graduate of Minutes Police School, I hope the (new) physio regime is holding Mitch and Precious out at least a week or two longer than necessary — to get them “fully” ready but also eager to go.
I also hope Mitch and Precious are being forced to watch endless playback of what is not working on D — with their eyes propped open while listening to Ludwig Van — so we are ready to crush everyone in Spring.
What are you on about E?
The TO lineup data, not raw on-off.
Was the team’s defensive rating better in last year’s playoffs in OG’s games than it was in the 2023 playoffs?
Thatâs not the idea though, which is instead, Player A can be really good on defense, but his team can still be really bad on defense â because really good individual defense ports to ultimate team defense very narrowly and crudely.(*)
The argument is OG helps the Knicks team defense.
There really isnât though, and thereâs plenty to suggest that either he isnât or that the connection between that and quality team defense makes it virtually irrelevant.
Ok but ptmilo and others have posted large samples showing consistent strong impact but you’re here picking at the margins with stuff like:
-3 point defense numbers. Isn’t there a pretty good body of research showing that opposing 3FG% is mostly luck, and the actual impact is on the number of attempts allowed?
-The weird arguments that team defense is independent of individual defender quality, yet OG also bears responsibility for our defense being bad.
It just really seems like motivated reasoning and cherry-picking.
The argument is OG helps the Knicks team defense.
Again, yes — but his “help” winds up not mattering much because the connection between the help and the result is tenuous. Bailing water on the Titanic.
I get that arguing about OG can be a zesty mental workout to start each morning, but once ptmilo posts, isn’t it finished đ
Was the teamâs defensive rating better in last yearâs playoffs in OGâs games than it was in the 2023 playoffs?
Do you suppose this may have to do with the fact that the opposing offenses we played in ’23 ranked 9th and 25th, while the opposing offenses we played in ’24 ranked 14th and 2nd?
Fun fact: the Sixers ranked 14th with Embiid missing 43 games. With him on the court they posted a 122.4 Ortg, better than Indy.
3 point defense numbers. Isnât there a pretty good body of research showing that opposing 3FG% is mostly luck, and the actual impact is on the number of attempts allowed?
An elite wing defender shouldn’t at some point impact the other team’s 3 point percentage? Seems counterintuitive.
But in any event, if three point percentage is mostly luck then that again is evidence that the fit between individual D and team D is tenuous. If you can play really hard and really good but at the end of the day what happens is just luck then, by definition, it doesn’t matter if you play really hard and really good.
Guess whose team allows a higher offensive rating when he is on the floor in every single season of his career both as a Knick and a Raptor?
I donât want to give it away but heâs from Canada, E claims heâs a good defensive player, and his name rhymes with âFar Fay Marrett.â
3 point defense numbers. Isnât there a pretty good body of research showing that opposing 3FG% is mostly luck, and the actual impact is on the number of attempts allowed?
Trifectas allowed per 100 possessions, OG’s teams (*)
Guess whose team allows a higher offensive rating when he is on the floor in every single season of his career both as a Knick and a Raptor?
Sorry JK, RJ Barret’s defensive bona fides are beyond question because we had the #1 Drtg in the 2023 playoffs with him in an 11-game sample against offenses with an average rank of 17th.
You really must keep up!
Do you suppose this may have to do with the fact that the opposing offenses we played in â23 ranked 9th and 25th, while the opposing offenses we played in â24 ranked 14th and 2nd?
Maybe, but until we know the spread, we can’t know the answer.
OG’s teams allow a ton of threes and the other team makes a ton of threes. That we now know.
The TO lineup data, not raw on-off.
Yeah, if there’s different players in the lineup, they’ll get different results. Doesn’t mean you can attribute them to OG when there’s 2-3 different players in the lineup.
The goal is to improve team defense. Unless there’s a new rule, a team is made up of more than a 4 or 5 man unit.
An elite wing defender shouldnât at some point impact the other teamâs 3 point percentage? Seems counterintuitive.
But in any event, if three point percentage is mostly luck then that again is evidence that the fit between individual D and team D is tenuous. If you can play really hard and really good but at the end of the day what happens is just luck then, by definition, it doesnât matter if you play really hard and really good.
The goal is to improve team defense, not optimize for opponent 3P%. OG improved team defense.
The goal is to improve team defense, not optimize for opponent 3P%. OG improved team defense.
Yeah, but team defense includes bigs and rim protection. OG’s a wing. He’s supposed to be helping stop threes and helping stop the other teams from making them. Hasn’t happened. *Really* isn’t happening this year.
“Doesnât mean you can attribute them to OG when thereâs 2-3 different players in the lineup.”
They swapped out OG, Schroeder, and Siakim for RJ, IQ, and Trent Jr. in their main five-mans and got four points per 100 possessions better on defense.
OG is a very good player and the moment he joined the Knicks they immediately got better. What the fuck else is the point?
OGâs teams allow a ton of threes and the other team makes a ton of threes. That we now know.
The #1 3fg% defense by a mile this year is GSW, holding opponents to 31%. Since this is entirely attributable to individual perimeter defenders, please identify who is responsible for this among:
Steph Curry
Buddy Hield
Andrew Wiggins
Brandin Podziemski
Moses Moody
Since this is entirely attributable to individual perimeter defenders,
It’s not — that’s literally the whole entire point. (*) GSW holding teams down this year with those guys just reiterates it. If I can lock teams down on the perimeter with those defensive jabronies, I don’t need OG’s “great individual defense” to do it. Literally the entire point.
Itâs not â thatâs literally the whole entire point. GSW holding teams down this year with those guys just reiterates it.
GSW isn’t holding teams down from 3. That’s the whole point. Opposing 3p% is mostly luck, even in a 538 shot sample.
If it’s luck, you don’t need “great individual defenders.” Same point. (Though I’m not sure why you mentioned percentage in your “challenge,” if you meant attempts.)
Itâs gotten to the point where I just scroll through to ptMilo and DRedâs posts (with a side of EB and JK) because WTF who has time for all this?
Enough of that, thanks. Moving on, would it make sense to sit Mikal for Precious (sliding Josh and that lame-ass OG down a spot)? Hard to imagine it being possible politically, but if so, would it work better? It would certainly be good for the second unit, but hard to imagine the starters being as effective.
Edit: is there a loss on the Mikal trade, I’ll take it. I was as loud about that as about the OG trade, but they have not worked out the same so far… Plenty of season to be played, of course.
Since the off-season I’ve thought it would be best if we started two of our big wings and let Deuce start next to JB, but id be game to see if precious really has improved his corner 3
Considering the starting lineup is producing one of the greatest offenses in NBA history they should probably stick with it and try to hash out the defensive issues as best they can.
E was of course well-aware that “3 point defense” is basically astrology back in 2020-2021.
It’s. A. Bit.
the idea that OG isnât valuable on defense because he doesnât make us elite by himself is just not reasonable.
That was not the idea.
The irony of you guys is you complain endlessly about people repeating themselves yet people repeat themselves because someone is constantly mischaracterizing what they say.
I will refrain from repeating myself. Look up what I originally wrote and find your mistake. Or donât. Whatever.
I mean weâre talking about a guy who tried to offer up âJosh Hart was forced to be a hustlebunny against his willâ as intelligent analysis in this very thread. His posts here are best enjoyed as a kind of dada oddball performance art and not as substantive discussion about basketball. You really have to approach his posts here in that context.
And FWIW I donât think the comparison to an NFL CB holds any water.
OG cannot simply canât lock someone down like Darrell Revis. There will never be a game where Jayson Tatum or Donovan Mitchell canât get shots off bc OG Anunoby is smothering them.
He doesnât take half the court away, either. You can score pretty easily on OG if he has to funnel his defender into KAT.
Considering the starting lineup is producing one of the greatest offenses in NBA history they should probably stick with it and try to hash out the defensive issues as best they can.
The question is whether taking a step back to merely a great offense (if Precious can sustain that much) would be worth the trade-off of not being terrible on D. I lean toward No, but I’m also aware that a fully functioning bench unit might really help us pull away while the starters sit.
I’ll catrch up on all this later, but from the looks of it we need a change of topic.
1. Cam Reddish is playing well for the Lakers since finally getting healthy
2. Frank is playing very well for his new team now that he’s finally getting healthy.
It’s a shame both of them lost so much development time to chronic injuries over the years. They are very different players, but both might have been net plus players had they been healthy.
Ducks and runs!
Can we get ruruland back in here for an update on when Melo’s TS% is gonna make it up to the .600 range?
The question is whether taking a step back to merely a great offense (if Precious can sustain that much) would be worth the trade-off of not being terrible on D. I lean toward No, but Iâm also aware that a fully functioning bench unit might really help us pull away while the starters sit.
It’s not necessarily an either or question.
Some lineups may make more sense against one opponent than another and another lineup might make more sense against a different opponent. You can always start one way, observe what’s happening and then change the minute distribution depending on what you need.
OK, I can sum it up.
OG is not God.
RJ and IQ aren’t as good now, but they have God like upside. đ
Therefore we overpaid in the trade and overpaid in salary.
The discussion of Melo’s Kobe assists was more interesting than this.
My theory going into the Gobert trade was that it was going to hurt Towns on offense because there would be less space for him to drive into the paint and finish or get to good spots in the paint. When he remained highly efficient on high volume I just assumed I was wrong and the T-Wolves managed to find ways around the spacing issues. But seeing him back at the 5 now with plenty of space makes me think he was just improving so much as a player, he was overcoming the space disadvantage enough for it to not be notcieable, but he would have been even better than that playing all 5 all along.
Guys, why are we debating hustlebunnies for the 1000th time when we could be debating Daniel Jones for the final time?
Hopefully soon we’ll be able to debate if Giants should draft Sanders or Ward.
I don’t particularly care about the Giants one way or another but their coaching staff/FO are likely to lose their jobs because they won too many games their first year in charge. Our regime sort of did the same thing but Randle fortunately was not Danny Dimes.
bobby neptune must be singing “Oh Danny boy”…in some watering hole today….
Cam’s at 7.3 USG lolol. Would have been a lot more fun if he’d just kept chuckin’.
One of the most Knickerblogger threads I have ever readâŚ.
Old beef for whatever reason has always been an essential ingredient in the Knickerblogger sandwich. We arenât kicking it to the curb.
I am happy to let things play out with OG. I think we will all be on the same page eventually. I also think that if Mitch can come back and be himself, the two of them out there together could be a lot of fun.
On the subject of Josh Hart, holy shit he is having a good season! He basically has been providing the kind of impact that was Mikalâs best case scenario..
And that rumbling bumbling stumbling layup the other night was my favorite moment of the season so far I think.
Its still early days – this isnât his level – but itâs been great to watch.
And FWIW I donât think the comparison to an NFL CB holds any water.
“OG cannot simply canât lock someone down like Darrell Revis. There will never be a game where Jayson Tatum or Donovan Mitchell canât get shots off bc OG Anunoby is smothering them.
He doesnât take half the court away, either. You can score pretty easily on OG if he has to funnel his defender into KAT.”
The football analogy was not meant to be taken literally. It was in response to what you said here:
“He might be the best perimeter defender in the world but heâs kind of easy to avoid. Over the summer I compared him to a brick wall and said teams arenât just going to run into him. They can easily bypass him by going at Brunson or setting a screen on Bridges. Hence our defense sucks despite his greatness.”
The point being that OG taking care of his business better than nearly every wing in the NBA, especially without sacrificing any offense, makes the defense better, and probably a LOT better, than it would be without him. You can tilt your blitzing/hedging schemes towards those guys because OG can handle his own business one-on-one better than most, and he is also very strong in whatever scheme you put him in as an off-ball help/team defender…deflections in passing lanes, traps, weakside contests, etc. I don’t get why that is so difficult to understand. In fact, it comes across as purposely obtuse, since I’m pretty sure you and E know this and are just being argumentative.
howdy clarence đ
I was beginning to worry that we had become too boring for you…
hope all is well for you…watcha listening to today?
a couple of years ago it seemed like we were really maximizing the roster dollars spent…
it’s not like we don’t have several players on reasonable deals – it’s just we’re paying premium price for 2 of them..
On the subject of Josh Hart, holy shit he is having a good season! He basically has been providing the kind of impact that was Mikalâs best case scenario..
if josh actually managed to go the full season at 6 ast, 9 reb, 1 3pm, but sub 2 tov a game, he’d be the first to ever do it.
the 70pct ts and the human smelling salting is just standard trim now
“Itâs a shame both of them lost so much development time to chronic injuries over the years. They are very different players, but both might have been net plus players had they been healthy.”
Or alternatively, the injuries actually helped disguise their innate weaknesses because guys like you had an excuse to believe in the development that just wasn’t gonna happen. I suppose if Kevin Knox was injured all the time, folks might be blaming his lack of development on that.
Some guys just don’t develop, injured or not. Frank fucking sucked. Reddish fucking sucks. They would have sucked incrementally less with fewer injuries, but would still have sucked. It really is that simple.
Itâs a shame both of them lost so much development time to chronic injuries over the years. They are very different players, but both might have been net plus players had they been healthy.
all 37 views of the basketball reference nanjing monkey kings page were strat refreshing in case damyean dotson dropped 15 and 4 and he could stop here by to ring the register
“Frank Ntilikina averaging 7 points per game for Partizan at age 26” is pretty much the outcome I expected all along.
It was obvious Josh Hart had a down year for him last year. I repeatedly said it was probably a knee issue he said he’d have to play through all season long but it also could have been the newborn taking some time/emergy away from the court. He eventually had a great playoff which is why I was banging the drum that he should start this year. I was expecting a big bounce back year in terms of him finishing at the rim better and being able to make up a lot of rebounding and playmaking gap from the loss of Randle. He doesn’t even have to sustain what he’s doing now to be in the perfect role for what this team needs without Randle.
That Randle ignoring Gobert clip was pretty bizarre.
“geo says:
November 22, 2024 at 15:53
howdy clarence đ.”
Ummmmmmm……. Did Clarence make an appearance? I didn’t see one.
UmmmmmmmâŚâŚ. Did Clarence make an appearance? I didnât see one.
Hot take: Geo is secretly both Doogie and Clarence cleverly hiding behind wildly different writing styles.
Or alternatively, the injuries actually helped disguise their innate weaknesses because guys like you had an excuse to believe in the development that just wasnât gonna happen. I suppose if Kevin Knox was injured all the time, folks might be blaming his lack of development on that.
I think it’s a metaphysical certainty that repeated injuries are one of the things that can stifle a young player’s development, especially when the player is rehabbing practically every summer like Reddish and Frank.
Depending on how bad and repeated the injuries are, the player may develop a bit later anyway (like KP), but there are more cases where they lose a step of speed and athleticism and never become the player they could have been.
If you are only asking how good KP is now without asking how good he could been without losing all that development time and bit of atheticism, you are mssing a key part of the KP story. To me, it’s kind of shocking he got this good despite what he’s been through given injuries and misuse in Dallas.
The goal for Frank was to become switchable plus defender (which he was before all in the injuries), good enough 3 point shooter to have to be defended (which he wasn’t) and secondary playmaker (which was kncoing on the door). He didn’t get there. It’s hard to know every reason why because initially he was making slow press from 3, but I assure you if you don’t think injuries were a major factor in that you didn’t follow him closely after he left NY. He was constantly hurt, like practically every season all season long and in the off season. He had no hope of getting better (on top of being misused most of the time as a PG).
The Cam injury story is similar. The guy is constantly hurt. It was just a different story. He was slowly improving his poor efficiency, but his basketball IQ and defense were high suspect. The strange thing with him is that on the Lakers they told him to forget about scoring because with James and AD, they didn’t need him to score. They wanted more defense. They turned him a better defender that just kind of stands oitside waiting for kickouts and other opportunities. So his usage dropped a ton, but apparently he’s defending better. Still, he’ll never be what he could have been after missing time virtually every year and off season.
I’m not sure what the story was with Knox, but imo he did improve quite a bit on offense over time. The problem for him was defense and other skills. He was so bad in every other way (as we saw fairly quickly after having some hope in summer league) that overall he could never be and NBA player even if he got a little better at those other things. He was terrible on both sides to start.
Frank and Cam showed they had talent one side and just needed to get better on the other to become rotation NBA players. Knox was a big negtaive on both sides and needed a miracle.
all 37 views of the basketball reference nanjing monkey kings page were strat refreshing in case damyean dotson dropped 15 and 4 and he could stop here by to ring the register
I learned one thing from the Dotson era. Just because a guy had one of the most relaxed strokes I’ve ever seen and put on a shooting exhibition as good as I’ve ever seen in warmups at MSG in my entire life does not mean he’s eventually going to be just as relaxed and become a 40% 3p shooter in NBA games. đ
Truth be told (and I have no inside info on this), I don’t think basketball talent and ability is why Dotson went backward instead of forward and is out of the NBA now. I think his problem was off the court.
“Hot take: Geo is secretly both Doogie and Clarence cleverly hiding behind wildly different writing styles.”
G-d forbid I be associated with that stuff. Hot take indeed, Pags. đ
One thing I have learned over the years on this blog is that some people will go through all sorts or contortions to avoid saying “Yeah, I was wrong about X.”
I’m going to make a pledge right now: if RJ Barrett ever turns out to be like a 4 BPM player, or I dunno, even like a 2 BPM player, or manages a TS+ over 100 over a 2000+ minute season, or meets some reasonable benchmark of production, I will type the following words into this box:
“Yeah, it turns out I was wrong about RJ Barrett. He turned out to be a good player.”
136 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2024.11.22)”
Hubert, please don’t drink coffee today! đ¤đ
Hubert was faced with religious fervor and reacted accordingly.
OG’s individual defense is “helping” the Knicks’ team defense in much the same way that grabbing the ice bucket from the Titanic bar and bailing the water would have helped the doomed passengers.
Their team defense stinks. Drilling down a bit, notwithstanding the fact that by reputation at least, they have three excellent wing defenders in OG, Hart, and Mikal, they’re next to last in three point % allowed.
Where’s OG in guarding the trifecta line?
Five-man lineup data is notoriously SSS, but the Knick starting lineup leads the association in minutes played together (258). Its defensive rating is 118. That’s worse that the DRat of the team as a whole (116.4).
The four-man lineup of OG, JB, Hart, and Mikal also leads the association in minutes together (307). Their DRat together also stinks — 118.8. Swap in KAT for OG in that four-man, 272 minutes together … better DRat, 117.8. Swap in Deuce for OG, very SSS (48 minutes) … better DRat, but only marginally at 118.6.
KAT/OG/Mikal/Brunson: 273 minutes, DRat 118.2
KAT/Hart/Mikal/Brunson: 272 minutes, DRat 117.8
Nothing really there.
Top two five-mans by minutes, Toronto Raptors 2023-24:
Barnes/Poeltl/OG/Siakim/Schroeder: 366 minutes, 113.2 DRat
Barnes/Poeltl/RJ/IQ/Trent: 164 minutes, 109.2 DRat
More ’24 Raptors:
Top two four-mans:
Schroeder/Poeltl/Siakim/Barnes: 503 minutes, 113.9 DRat
Schroeder/Poeltl/Siakim/OG: 500 minutes, 114.0 DRat
Sixth-rated four-man by minutes:
Barnes/RJ/IQ/Trent: 269 minutes, 110.5 DRat
Barnes/Poeltl/OG: 429 minutes, 113.0 DRat
Barnes/Poeltl/RJ: 247 minutes, 111.1 DRat
Lies…. damnable lie…. and statistics, something, something.
Nah … what it is is that while OG can get up in people’s shit one-on-one, that’s a tiny component of modern association team defense. That’s the lesson in all of this.(*) Which is why, for example, the Knick team defense stinks and the lineups in TO didn’t get any worse and even got better when they substituted out OG for … cough … other people.
(*) Which for me is a good lesson regarding the eye test. If your eyes focus only on what a dude is doing on-ball when your eyes are caught, you’re missing a bunch of stuff. In the end, “individual defense” really isn’t all that important in the grand scheme, especially when everyone’s an association-caliber player and elite athlete.
And I’m old enough to remember when OG and Mikal were going to shut down Tatum and Brown ….
This is a 14min sample size without OG.
This is not how you isolate variables.
Eye test is really all you need to determine OG’s defensive impact. Trying to diminish his impact on defense is really a silly undertaking. He’s clearly one of the very best non-rim protecting defenders in the NBA. Full stop.
He is also a pretty good but not great offensive player. If one is going to compare him to all-time greats (he’s clearly not one) it should be someone like Pippen. He’s not Scottie Pippen on either end, but he’s a damn good poor man’s version.
Is he worth what we gave up for him? Most definitely.
Is he worth what he is getting paid? Probably not, but he could probably still easily be traded on his deal if he stays healthy.
And that is literally the only concern we should have about OG. He is an excellent starter on a contender-level team. He’s our Derrick White, who the Celts acquired and now extended at a colossal bargain.
Now, that said, might there have been better ways to expend RJ, IQ, a virtual first, and upwards of 25% of the cap (and Precious should be factored in, he’s pretty good!)? Sure. But there were way worse ways too. We’re not talking Tobias Harris here.
Login, see 9 comments, anticipate an interesting conversation to lurk
Wroooooong
Then you fundamentally agree with the fundamental assertion involved.
Dejounte Murray is shooting under 27% so far this year
“Then you fundamentally agree with the fundamental assertion involved.”
Not at all, beyond the assertion that nearly every transaction involves a theoretical opportunity cost. I don’t have one iota of buyer’s remorse about OG beyond lingering concerns about his durability. And as you well know, I am not a member of the RJ Haterz Hive. I just think OG is a far better sidekick to KAT and Brunson, and would have been to Julius and Brunson if we stood pat. Leon may have paid a premium, but it was for a sound reason. Trashing OG’s impact is just unnecessary. It’s fucking as obvious as hell.
I have WAY more buyer’s remorse about Mikal. And I like Mikal, but the price we paid was outrageous and unprecedented. Quibbling about OG’s cost of acquisition and salary is boring in comparison.
Dejounte Murray has only played 30 minutes this season, thus far. Kind of a small sample size for his shooting percentage.
Doogie, how do you feel about the conclusions drawn from a 14 minute sample above?
Actually, no.
The modal MIGHT is generally used to describe things that CAN, but are unlikely to happen.
I actually think at the time it was very unlikely to get a better player than OG for Barrett and IQ. I’m still of that opinion. You disagree, which is certainly fine đ
There might not be a more irrelevant team in the NBA right now than the Toronto Raptors.
“I actually think at the time it was very unlikely to get a better player than OG for Barrett and IQ.”
And that’s essentially it, isn’t it? The 31st pick was also a fair price for Precious. Flynn was worthless.
OG was only available because he was an impending UFA. The risk of somewhat overpaying him after acquiring him was fully considered in the context of a) RJ already being overpaid and b) IQ about to be overpaid. (i’d be nauseous if he were on our books for #32M AAV, so let’s see how that ages for Masai.)
It was reported that RJ was largely viewed as a toxic asset, and that there were multiple suitors for OG both pre- and post-trade. Not sure what IQ could have been offered if he went RFA, but if a “smart” guy like Masai thought he was worth locking up at $32M without letting IQ test the market, one would think Masai is not the kind of GM to unwisely bid against himself.
Now, one measure of value is: what would the return be for RJ and IQ on their current deals in a fire sale trade vs. the return for OG on his current deal? How will that proposition age? It’s a fair question.
But in terms of fit, even if Leon paid a smallish premium, seems like nothing to be bent out of shape about.
“There might not be a more irrelevant team in the NBA right now than the Toronto Raptors.”
I don’t think this is true. They are getting their injured players back, and they should be a pretty good, pretty deep young team once they do.
Randle not passing to Rudy last night was pretty funny. Maybe he’s too used to playing with Mitch.
As for OG, I agree with Hubert that he’s overpaid. I just don’t understand why anyone needs to say that again and again and again.
“Doogie, how do you feel about the conclusions drawn from a 14 minute sample above?”
I feel that it is just as useless than the 30-minute sample size, if not moreso.
I think Hubert is mostly reacting to people who are saying âOG is underpaid,â which I also think people are mostly saying kind of tongue in cheek. I mean, is there anybody here who sincerely believes heâs UNDERPAID? I think people are just being kind of cheeky when theyâre saying that.
If you look at other players in OGâs salary range, you see some guys who are better value, some who are worse. Theyâre all veterans who have had some success in the league. Generally itâs hard to squeeze a ton of surplus value out of guys in this range. You want Zion Williamson for $36M? I really wouldnât. Heâs probably not gonna outperform that contract. Brandon Ingram? Nah. Michael Porter Jr? Pass.
There are Tyrese Maxeys and Darius Garlands and SGAs mixed in there too, and those guys are all excellent surplus value players. But I look at the list of guys making 35-40M a year and it seems like OG kind of belongs there. Heâs a plus starter. If you donât have an agenda and arenât using arcane noisy on-off numbers to boost whatever shtick youâre trying to do, itâs rather obvious heâs a plus defender who can credibly guard 1-4 and isnât a zero on offense. Thatâs a plus starter, and on the free market that is what plus starters cost.
A number of things can be true.
OG is a bit overpaid
OG is the best wing defender for the Knicks in 50 years.
OG makes a very big impact that isn’t measured by BPM
OG is a ton of fun to watch.
OG is reasonably young
OG has given us reason to doubt his future durability
OG probably is the best player we could have acquired
I agree with what Z-Man said above and what a lot of people have said. The price we paid for Bridges is far more of an issue for me.
But hey, if having OG bothers people, no skin off my back.
There doesn’t really seem to be much of an alternate history here. A few people seem to think we should have kept our powder dry for something. I just am never sure quite what. Giannis?
I don’t think RJ, IQ, and a billion picks would have gotten us Giannis.
I donât want to. My preferred topics of conversation have been Sixer schadenfreude (their over/under is down to 38.5!) and marveling at how greatly I underestimated KAT.
I would love to never think about how much weâre paying a career 0.1 BPM player who misses 1/3 of his teamâs games. But 2-3 times a week someone turns up here to run the most unearned victory laps in blog history about it.
I did not bring OG up. I replied to this:
Maybe in retrospect that was subtweeting E and carrying on the RJ nonsense (talk about a tired topic) instead of being a direct shot at my position but it sure looked like a ridiculous victory lap to me.
The last time I talked about it was in response to âwho thinkâs OG is overpaid now?â More of the same.
I am impressed by the stats ptmilo presented yesterday and am willing to reconsider some of my priors when a case like that is made. I do want to look up some other guys using the same methodology before I do. But I would put a moratorium on running victory laps bc you think a $42M player with a 0.5 bpm is definitively outplaying his contract.
+1 Cyber!
And it just so happens I started drinking herbal tea instead of cappuccino yesterday.
“Heâs a plus starter. If you donât have an agenda and arenât using arcane noisy on-off numbers to boost whatever shtick youâre trying to do, itâs rather obvious heâs a plus defender who can credibly guard 1-4 and isnât a zero on offense. Thatâs a plus starter, and on the free market that is what plus starters cost.”
While I largely agree with the premise, this is not really a comprehensive way to look at it. The question should include: How many players are there earning significantly below what OG is earning that deliver similar or better value? (not including those on rookie deals)
Hubert postulated that OG would be great value at something like $20M AAV but is woefully overpaid at $40M AAV. That’s not where I am but not a crazy thought.
The problem is that teams who have the OGs of the world on at-or-below market value deals hold on to them for dear life, and only trade them for a king’s ransom.
I think Bridges is in a similar tier to OG, and look what it took to pry him loose from the Nets.
Alternatively, look what it took for Minny to pry DDV on his deal away from us!
That’s where you have to give Brad Stevens (and Ainge before him) lots of credit. They were excellent at sniffing out the White’s, KP’s, and Jrue’s of the NBA…guys who were both worth more than they paid and who they could retain on team-friendly deals.
In that sense, I don’t think that either the OG or Mikal deals measure up. That’s not to say that th OG deal was “bad,” just not anything close to a steal when compared to the moves the Celts made, or the Randle/DDV/Brunson/iHart/Mitch/Deuce deals.
You could even throw Hart’s deal in there. We got him for a lottery-protected first, and extended him for $19M AAV. Is he that much worse than OG? If not, then either Hart was a ridiculous steal or OG is a substantial overpay on both ends.
https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExeDc4eWR4YmptZDd2aXRpdm1mMGd1c2VpbjJqNmhpN3A5aDRoY3duYiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/zQnvKzEXe5KVRTZNbB/giphy.gif
OG is almost the perfect bookend to my love for David Lee. The delta between what box score stats say about those two guys on the Knicks is pretty enormous.
When I referred to “the price we paid for him,” I was referring to the trade, as evidenced by the past tense, contra “the price we are currently paying for him.” I strongly believe that Barrett, IQ, and the 31st pick was a small price to pay for a player of OG’s caliber (and his Bird Rights, of course).
RJ is in his 6th season and has a 93 TS+ without much of a tertiary game, IQ is near and dear to my heart but not particularly close to OG in terms of impacting winning (at least not yet, I am on the record as noting I believe this is a known unknown that could impact backward looking analysis of the trade), and the 31st pick in the 2024 NBA draft wasn’t a great asset (concur with Z-Man that most teams looking to win would’ve happily traded it for Precious).
I find conversations about OG’s salary to be droll for two reasons:
1) it was baked in from the moment we traded for him because the Pistons, at a minimum, were ready to hand him a blank check
2) if you can trade a player for value at the drop of a hat, and I am 100% certain we could do so with OG, I think said player defeats any and all “overpaid” allegations
That’s great. đ I don’t practice what I preach because i’m still team coffee. đ
I don’t know, relitigating this stuff just seems so boring to me. We’ve got a good team. We’re going to get two very important pieces (Precious and Mitch) back soon (and also hopefully Shamet at some point).
I’d much rather discuss FUTURE moves we should make. Whether that’s adjustments Thibs needs to make or moves Leon should make, to improve the team we have. We know we’re pretty good but also probably still a step behind The Cavs and Celtics.
Theoretical past trades we could have made or holding the powder dry because maybe Jokic would one day become available…just seems like such a pointless exercise in hand wringing at this point. The moves have been made.
Relitigating moves is what fans of shitty teams do when they have nothing else to talk about.
What I’m saying in general is that I think it is fair to feel that Leon paid too much of a premium for “fit” over performance in the case of both OG and Mikal, and that these overpays combined might hamstring their ability to improve the team to compete with OKC/BOS and soon some others.
But this is where the real craft of GMing comes in. No one (certainly not me) saw the KAT deal coming at such a cheap price. Very few anticipated the breaking up of the 4-Nova core. As such, I don’t want to assume that just because our pick cache is largely spent that guys like Mikal and OG, or even KAT, are untouchable. Seems like Leon is never sitting idly by, marveling at his Magnus Opus. Let’s see how things play out between now and the deadline.
Nah ⌠what it is is that while OG can get up in peopleâs shit one-on-one, thatâs a tiny component of modern association team defense. Thatâs the lesson in all of this.(*) Which is why, for example, the Knick team defense stinks and the lineups in TO didnât get any worse and even got better when they substituted out OG for ⌠cough ⌠other people.
(*) Which for me is a good lesson regarding the eye test. If your eyes focus only on what a dude is doing on-ball when your eyes are caught, youâre missing a bunch of stuff. In the end, âindividual defenseâ really isnât all that important in the grand scheme, especially when everyoneâs an association-caliber player and elite athlete.
area man discovers optometry and purchases eye patch
I love (I actually hate it) how this site has managed to fulfill all doomsday positions with different users at the same time.
There’s the OG is shit camp, the Bridges is shit camp, the KAT is shit camp, there’s always been a Josh Hart is shit camp, there’s even been some attempts at Jalen Brunson has been exposed, the ongoing Thibs is shit camp has been around for a while too.
And then whatever happens on the games causes a shift towards which camp gets more or less vocal.
I’ve honestly just been swifting this season and I’m enjoying it quite a bit, I’m enjoying the wins and not sweating much the losses, and it seems to fit better the experience of watching a 82 game regular season.
“Thereâs the OG is shit camp, the Bridges is shit camp, the KAT is shit camp, thereâs always been a Josh Hart is shit camp, thereâs even been some attempts at Jalen Brunson has been exposed, the ongoing Thibs is shit camp has been around for a while too.
And then whatever happens on the games causes a shift towards which camp gets more or less vocal.”
I don’t get how you see things this way…even with the tongue-in-cheek element considered.
No one, and I mean no one, is suggesting that any of OG, Bridges, KAT, or Hart is “shit” in any way that you could possibly be justified in using that adjective.
Most of the arguments are about whether the trades were worth making based on opportunity cost.
I get all the reasons why one might be annoyed by those arguments:
-we have the best sustainable team to root for since the ’90s
-no use crying over spilt milk
-it’s too early to judge
-no need to employ hyperbole, distortion, conjecture, or speculation to die on a stupid hill
But I actually enjoy the conversations on these things during off-days. Some of it is tedious, but mostly folks are talking in good faith, and not in a way that suggest the camps you laid out.
Edit: the Thibs shit camp is very real, although it has only one full-fledged member and a few non-member sympathizers.
I have the emotional reaction that Bruno has, although I concede the subtle subtexts that Z-Man alludes to. And in fact I might be labeled in the camp of “Brunson is exposed” after a few posts, although that was never my position.
My position, and YMMV, is that Brunson is still figuring out his perfect role on this particular make-up of the team. To put it super-simplistically I’d rather he average 25-10 (pts-assts) than 28-8. An example of this was the latter half of the Wiz game, where it pretty much ended up KAT-JB-KAT-JB over and over, with both OG and Mikal nowhere to be seen. Macri made a good point after the game that when the mismatch is there, you have to go to work and punish it. But I would offer the counter-argument that when a game seems well in hand, you might want to work out the kinks in a new offense and get your super-capable other teammates involved.
Also solve the double-team-at-half-court faster. It’s going to be there all year.
OG isn’t any better than Josh Hart. Josh Hart makes $18,144,000.
In team building terms, they already had whatever OG brings to the table in Josh Hart.
I don’t think Thibs is “shit” at all. He’s probably not the guy you want for the final push to modernity and the highest heights, but we’ll see.
Once we traded for OG, didnât we have to pay him even if it was âabove marketâ? If Philly or Detroit had swept in and signed him, we would have basically given up RJ and IQ for nothing.
So if you think heâs a massive overpay, then you should be anti-trade as well right?
Of course. TNFH is saying that’s a feature — or at least an unavoidable necessity — when actually it’s a bug.
“So if you think heâs a massive overpay, then you should be anti-trade as well right?”
Now we’re getting somewhere!
It should be fun to see how many points a cup motivated Celtics team can put up on the Wizards.
“An example of this was the latter half of the Wiz game, where it pretty much ended up KAT-JB-KAT-JB over and over, with both OG and Mikal nowhere to be seen.”
Do you mean the Wiz game or the Suns game? I’m asking because the same exact thing was said about the latter portion of our game against Phoenix, almost verbatim (“KAT/JB/KAT/JB,” “OG and Mikal disappeared,” etc.)
And of course I’m not discounting that the same thing could have happened in *both* games.
OMG E nobody fucking cares!
Like canât we just tell him to shut the fuck up already?
I agree with Z-Man that it’s perfectly well and good to discuss broad strategy and individual moves on slow news days, but people who maintain literal shticks are annoying.
I mEan, I’m old enough to remember when it was a travesty that we traded the 24th pick in the 2023 draft for that hustlebunny scrub Josh Hart.
That’s been exposed as laughable, so it’s been quietly discarded. The update is we already had OG Anunoby, one of the most coveted players in the NBA, in Josh Hart.
That right there is not good-faith discussion, it’s a guy doing a bit.
Log time reader, sometimes poster. The repetitiveness of the OG, RJ posts is becoming overwhelming. And quite frankly not fun. It has been basically the same thing said over and over. It has been covering a huge percentage of the topics.
Thread after thread ruined by one dude bitching about one player and pining for dudes that arenât here anymore.
Go write some fan fiction multiverse story where we have cam reddish, RJ and Dejonte already and leave us the fuck Aline with your bullshit.
I would say diminishing his ability on defense is silly. Impact is reasonable, though.
He might be the best perimeter defender in the world but heâs kind of easy to avoid. Over the summer I compared him to a brick wall and said teams arenât just going to run into him. They can easily bypass him by going at Brunson or setting a screen on Bridges. Hence our defense sucks despite his greatness.
OG needs to be paired with a big to make the most impact. OG & Hartenstein were dominant. OG & Precious are dynamic. OG & Mitch might be special. I think itâs fair to wonder if Towns at C will always diminish OGâs defensive impact. (Itâs doing wonders for his offense, though.)
They’re very different players with very different skillsets.
Raven, I would only go so far as to agree that Brunson has a bit of an ego and wants to prove that guarding him with the Ryan Dunns and Kelly Oubres of the world is not going to stop him from getting to his spots and scoring.
My concern is that he is going to get worn down if he keeps insisting on going toe-to-toe with defensive wings on every possession. But since that is going to be a consistent tactic in every game he plays, I also see the logic in learning how to punch through it. At the end of the day, his iso scoring is critical and he needs to show other teams that he can’t be guarded one-on-one by anyone. I just worry about him getting banged up early in games.
Only caveat is that I’m not going to break out 24 TOR from 24 NYK, but since the empty building year, every one of OG’s teams has been bad at guarding the three-point line. League rank, 3PT defense percentage:
2021 — 24th
2022 — 18th
2023 — 28th
2024 (TOR only) — 24th
2025 — 29th
“Like canât we just tell him to shut the fuck up already?”
Like, sure, you can tell him whatever you want, but of course he is under no obligation to comply with your wishes in any way, shape, or form. That’s how these forums work.
Your only real recourse is to appeal to the site owners for a banning, but I see literally no reason why he should be banned. He’s only expressing his opinions repeatedly much to your dislike (and to mine as well, to be honest), but he’s allowed to do that, and you’re allowed to not read them (or to block his comments, if you want to be Draconian about it).
I donât think âstealâ should be in the discussion. We paid market value for a free agent. Itâs the default position. Itâs one of the reasons Iâd prefer building through the draft: only the really elite GMs are going to consistently get surplus value from free agent signings. Leon Rose has done pretty well, but I wouldnât classify him as an elite GM. He has a hit and miss record with FA signings. More hit than miss actually. Hasnât had too many outright whiffs and has done well with some. Paid market value for others. Heâs done better than I thought he would, but heâs not in that elite tier.
The Derrick Whites, the guys you sign for $30M and give you $40M of value, those guys are relatively rare. The reason youâre able to acquire a guy like that in the first place is because somebody else undervalued him. OG was never going to be that, because he was never going to give you $50M of value. But heâs also not a BAD signing, because heâs a productive player who suits our needs. As of now, heâs pretty much playing up to his contract. Does not look horribly out of place when you look at other players making a similar salary. 31st highest paid player in the league, and that is just of the subset of players who are no longer on rookie contracts.
Like most FA contracts, thereâs a good chance it wonât age well. For now, his contract is fine.
I still think the main issue is the PoA. As Strat says, Mikal is miscast in the role. The on/off data for drtg has him at +18.8. On the other end of the spectrum, Deuce has the best defensive on/off at -9.2.
This makes sense to me because Deuce, for his other defensive shortcomings, is pretty good at scampering around screens, while Mikal runs headlong into them and too often can’t get back into the play.
Moving Mikal off the PoA should help the defense quite a bit. He’s good using his long arms to contest shots in most other contexts despite playing pretty far back, allowing him to contain drives (which I think hurts him on screens because he’s too far away to go over).
Thibs has used OG at the PoA more the last few games. Hopefully that’ll help solve the issue and keep the starting offense together.
I think that Leon’s biggest “blunders” are opportunity costs associated with punting draft picks for young players with upside. He changed that this year (Kolek/Hukporti/Dadiet/McCullar), so we’ll have to see if he learned anything or if this year was an anomaly.
Oh, I was wrong about Josh Hart. I wasn’t wrong about what it showed about Leon’s improper treatment of first-round draft picks, and the hustlebunny thing Josh was kind of a part of (against his will) was very annoying — but absolutely wrong about the player.
“OG needs to be paired with a big to make the most impact. OG & Hartenstein were dominant. OG & Precious are dynamic. OG & Mitch might be special. I think itâs fair to wonder if Towns at C will always diminish OGâs defensive impact. (Itâs doing wonders for OGâs offense, though.)”
Again, it’s still a silly thing to argue. It’s like arguing that having Darrell Revis has no defensive impact because the opposing QBs are just beating guys on the other side of the field. The answer is to address the other side of the field. So the impact is there, just not optomized yet.
In other words, if you are arguing that the defense misses iHart, Mitch, and Precious (and now Deuce) that’s totally fair! But that’s not on OG. It’s still a lot harder to game plan against a defense when a “brick wall” renders one side of the court or one player much less effective. And then there’s the whole funneling thing that ardently Thibs believes in but obviously is a mirage because KB posters think it’s stupid.
The biggest glaring hole in our defense right now is KAT. The efort is there, but he changes directions like an aircraft carrier. He is extremely heavy on his feet and once he lurches it’s over. Hopefully Thibs can tinker with his footwork so that he reaches and lunges less. Then comes Brunson, who is just so physically limited that without 3 good wings and a good defensive C he is exploitable. OG, Mikal, and Hart help a lot with that, but they can’t do much to offset KAT’s deficiencies. That’s where Mitch and Precious come in. But OG’s impact is still very much there on virtually every possession.
Given the fact that OG’s teams have never guarded the three-point line well — a trend accelerating here — a plausible working theory is that a lot of stuff outside the eye test in terms of rotations, shading, switching, close outs and the like — as well as general defensive processing and feel — aren’t really working that well for him — which would explain the disconnect between his eye test skill and the fact that it doesn’t really translate to team defense that well.
It of course could also be all the other players’ fault, but I’ll never be in the “OG can’t fail, he can only be failed” business.
Z-man just (rightly) mentioned Deuce, but it’s like we barely talk about the guy anymore! We could really use him—anyone know what his prognosis is?
“the fact that it doesnât really translate to team defense that well.”
Sorry E, I’m going with ptmilo’s stats on that one…not to mention the most obvious eye-test verifiable fact most of us see with perfect clarity.
This is just such an odd construct that only you believe in or understand. Turns out Josh Hart isnât so much of a hustlebunny after all, he was just forced to do hustlebunny things, uh, against his will or something.
He looks like pretty much the exact same Josh Hart he has always been to me, but I guess I just canât see that Tom Thibodeau had the great non-hustlebunny awakening and now he doesnât force Josh Hart to hustlebunny anymore so Josh Hart is free to be the excellent player he always was.
You keep doing you, dude. Keep being a weirdo. Iâm here for it.
I predict that we will see lots of KAT at the 4 once Precious and Mitch return. Or when the Knicks acquire a better option as a sidekick defensive 5. I don’t think KAT would be as detrimental at the 4 as he is at the 5, and his passing thus far makes me optimistic that he’d still be just as effective on O in a team offense sense at the 4.
Hey, Torquemada what do you say?
âI hate RJâ
Speaking of “isolating variables,” it’ll be funny if the defense improves materially with Precious/Mitch and then people credit OG for the improvement.
Anyone care that we are on a 4-game winning streak without our starting or back-up 4 (Precious), our back-up 5 (Mitch), and our first and best player off the bench (Deuce)? Seems pretty good to me. (Yes, I know that the Nets, Wiz, and Suns aren’t great, but we have to play who is in front of us, right?)
And if we’re going to argue about something, I’d rather it be whether our starting line-up should have Precious or Hart in it. I could probably go either way on it, but when I take into account Hart’s probable feelings about it, it would be difficult to remove him from our first five when he is playing so damn well for us. Precious would more likely be just as happy to come in late in the first quarter…….but we’d still have to find a way to experiment in parts of games with line-ups that include both KAT and Precious to see what that might look like.
Both. Mikal hasn’t earned staying in ahead of Josh, and Mikal should be freed up for point forward second unit duty as well.
“a plausible working hypothesis”
Fixed that for you.
And since I just pulled a Doogie, Doogie you are probably right it was the Suns game. I’m so underwater on a project I have no clue what day it is. Obviously.
“Speaking of âisolating variables,â itâll be funny if the defense improves materially with Precious/Mitch and then people credit OG for the improvement.”
I don’t see why anyone would do that, so it would only be funny in the “wow, that’s really stupid!” sense. Sort of the way this comment of yours is funny.
against his will
By any metric that can actually capture an iota of defensive contributions (e.g., +/- metrics) OG has been approximately a top 30 – 50 player this year. Top 30 – 50 players who are not one-dimensional or rim runners get paid the max or near-max almost invariably. He’s not overpaid. He’s likely paid market value, which at our place on the win curve is perfectly fine to do.
By the way, OG’s biggest defensive contributions are, contra some in this thread, off-ball/not at the point of attack. There are several possessions a game where switches onto 2, 3, or 4 guys and single-handedly blows up an offensive possession. He’s a terrific help defender and free safety. He’s only playing PoA right now because Mikal is also a pretty good free safety/help defender and a much worse PoA defender when the ball-handler knows how to call for a screen.
“Both. Mikal hasnât earned staying in ahead of Josh, and Mikal should be freed up for point forward second unit duty as well.”
That definitely has some merit. I think that our overall team defense in the starting unit *might* suffer to some small degree, but moving Mikal to the second unit (hopefully with Deuce back) should solidify that unit and mitigate any small potential losses in the first five. The more I think about it, the more I kind of dig it.
(And if it somehow *totally* didn’t work, Thibs could more easily move Mikal back to the starting unit and Precious to the second unit than he could by moving Hart back and forth. So we’d have a Plan B, in effect.)
“(Yes, I know that the Nets, Wiz, and Suns arenât great, but we have to play who is in front of us, right?)”
Yes, but those teams aren’t just “aren’t great”…they abjectly suck. So I’m not all that juiced about it, beyond it’s better than losing!
“And if weâre going to argue about something, Iâd rather it be whether our starting line-up should have Precious or Hart in it. I could probably go either way on it, but when I take into account Hartâs probable feelings about it, it would be difficult to remove him from our first five when he is playing so damn well for us. Precious would more likely be just as happy to come in late in the first quarterâŚâŚ.but weâd still have to find a way to experiment in parts of games with line-ups that include both KAT and Precious to see what that might look like.”
Yeah, I suspect that Precious will come off the bench and any experimentation will occur in the late-first/early second Q to start. But if a guy starts roasting KAT repeatedly like Sengun did, it might be used at ends of games as well.
Player X can’t be good at defense because the team is bad on defense can very easily be explained by understanding the team could be worse on defense. I think ptmilo did a good job of laying this out yesterday.
Yes, indeed. And perhaps exactly because our competition was weak, we were able to practice certain offensive sets until they felt routine.
The Sims dunks on the PnR strike me as exactly that. It’s prolly a play designed for KAT, but thanks to garbage time, plus Mitch and Precious being out, we run it with Sims. Next man up. I like it. Sims having those reps may be valuable in March.
On the D. Let’s hope the guys are working on our flaws in the same way. That’s what Nov/Dec are for. Keep a goin’
It pains me to say this since Hubs and E are such kindred spirits that I’ve been accused of secretly being one of them, but…
This OG melancholia is really quite over-the-top, morose, and belabored. As the poster boy for those attributes, I know something about them.
There’s a mountain of evidence showing that he’s an elite defender, and his offensive skills are very clearly more than adequate for his role. The contract is fair and only figured to get fairer over its lifespan. We didn’t fleece the Raptors in the trade, but we didn’t get fleeced either. He really is the least of our worries.
The arguments employed to attack OG’s on-court value by these generally highly astute and intelligent posters are so poor they border on disingenuous. Lineup data based on 14-minute sample sizes? BPM when we know its predictive and descriptive value collapse with this specific type of player? You guys are better than that.
Why not EPM, which pegs OG as a borderline All-Star?
Likewise, the idea that OG isn’t valuable on defense because he doesn’t make us elite by himself is just not reasonable. With Brunson and Towns at the 1/5 and Mikal having pulled the Scooby-Doo reveal that his defense was just an old man in a monster mask all along, OG is very likely the only thing keeping us from being bottom 5. Elite offensive teams with mediocre defenses can win. Elite offenses with horrendous defenses can’t. Right now OG is the thread by which our defense hangs onto mediocrity. It would be better if he was putting us over the top on that end, but his services are still immensely valuable.
“On the D. Letâs hope the guys are working on our flaws in the same way. Thatâs what Nov/Dec are for. Keep a goinâ.”
That’s basically how Andy Reid seems to approach the regular season: Experiment a bit (especially in the first halves of games), and then tighten things up for the playoffs. Seems to work.
I just want Precious in the rotation enough to spell our trio of wings, which means time with either Sims or KAT. Hopefully we stop getting crazy minute totals. Deuce would help too.
Precious/Hart might kill our spacing.
That’s not the idea though, which is instead, Player A can be really good on defense, but his team can still be really bad on defense — because really good individual defense ports to ultimate team defense very narrowly and crudely.(*)
It’s not, “The Knicks’ team defense sucks, therefore OG’s individual defense sucks; it’s “the Knicks’ team defense sucks, so there isn’t much to care about whether or not OG’s individual defense is good.”
Nothing about last year’s TO lineup data really confirms the on/off OG stuff, either.
(*) And now that we’ve seen the team 3 point data from the last five years, we can sketch a partial outline of how and why.
What are you on about E?
Team DRTG on/off. Lower is better.
2025 -3.0
2024 NYK -14.5
2024 TOR -5.9
2023 -2.3
There really isn’t though, and there’s plenty to suggest that either he isn’t or that the connection between that and quality team defense makes it virtually irrelevant.
Yeah, and the absence of Precious and Mitch kind of forces Thibs to see what Sims, Huk, Dadiet, Kolek can do, especially in the blowouts, obvs.
As a proud graduate of Minutes Police School, I hope the (new) physio regime is holding Mitch and Precious out at least a week or two longer than necessary — to get them “fully” ready but also eager to go.
I also hope Mitch and Precious are being forced to watch endless playback of what is not working on D — with their eyes propped open while listening to Ludwig Van — so we are ready to crush everyone in Spring.
The TO lineup data, not raw on-off.
Was the team’s defensive rating better in last year’s playoffs in OG’s games than it was in the 2023 playoffs?
The argument is OG helps the Knicks team defense.
Ok but ptmilo and others have posted large samples showing consistent strong impact but you’re here picking at the margins with stuff like:
-3 point defense numbers. Isn’t there a pretty good body of research showing that opposing 3FG% is mostly luck, and the actual impact is on the number of attempts allowed?
-The weird arguments that team defense is independent of individual defender quality, yet OG also bears responsibility for our defense being bad.
It just really seems like motivated reasoning and cherry-picking.
Again, yes — but his “help” winds up not mattering much because the connection between the help and the result is tenuous. Bailing water on the Titanic.
I get that arguing about OG can be a zesty mental workout to start each morning, but once ptmilo posts, isn’t it finished đ
Do you suppose this may have to do with the fact that the opposing offenses we played in ’23 ranked 9th and 25th, while the opposing offenses we played in ’24 ranked 14th and 2nd?
Fun fact: the Sixers ranked 14th with Embiid missing 43 games. With him on the court they posted a 122.4 Ortg, better than Indy.
An elite wing defender shouldn’t at some point impact the other team’s 3 point percentage? Seems counterintuitive.
But in any event, if three point percentage is mostly luck then that again is evidence that the fit between individual D and team D is tenuous. If you can play really hard and really good but at the end of the day what happens is just luck then, by definition, it doesn’t matter if you play really hard and really good.
Guess whose team allows a higher offensive rating when he is on the floor in every single season of his career both as a Knick and a Raptor?
I donât want to give it away but heâs from Canada, E claims heâs a good defensive player, and his name rhymes with âFar Fay Marrett.â
Trifectas allowed per 100 possessions, OG’s teams (*)
2021 — 25th
2022 — 19th
2023 — 12th
2024 — 19th
2025 — 30th
(*) Again 2024 all TO.
Sorry JK, RJ Barret’s defensive bona fides are beyond question because we had the #1 Drtg in the 2023 playoffs with him in an 11-game sample against offenses with an average rank of 17th.
You really must keep up!
Maybe, but until we know the spread, we can’t know the answer.
OG’s teams allow a ton of threes and the other team makes a ton of threes. That we now know.
Yeah, if there’s different players in the lineup, they’ll get different results. Doesn’t mean you can attribute them to OG when there’s 2-3 different players in the lineup.
The goal is to improve team defense. Unless there’s a new rule, a team is made up of more than a 4 or 5 man unit.
The goal is to improve team defense, not optimize for opponent 3P%. OG improved team defense.
Yeah, but team defense includes bigs and rim protection. OG’s a wing. He’s supposed to be helping stop threes and helping stop the other teams from making them. Hasn’t happened. *Really* isn’t happening this year.
“Doesnât mean you can attribute them to OG when thereâs 2-3 different players in the lineup.”
They swapped out OG, Schroeder, and Siakim for RJ, IQ, and Trent Jr. in their main five-mans and got four points per 100 possessions better on defense.
OG is a very good player and the moment he joined the Knicks they immediately got better. What the fuck else is the point?
The #1 3fg% defense by a mile this year is GSW, holding opponents to 31%. Since this is entirely attributable to individual perimeter defenders, please identify who is responsible for this among:
Steph Curry
Buddy Hield
Andrew Wiggins
Brandin Podziemski
Moses Moody
It’s not — that’s literally the whole entire point. (*) GSW holding teams down this year with those guys just reiterates it. If I can lock teams down on the perimeter with those defensive jabronies, I don’t need OG’s “great individual defense” to do it. Literally the entire point.
GSW isn’t holding teams down from 3. That’s the whole point. Opposing 3p% is mostly luck, even in a 538 shot sample.
If it’s luck, you don’t need “great individual defenders.” Same point. (Though I’m not sure why you mentioned percentage in your “challenge,” if you meant attempts.)
Itâs gotten to the point where I just scroll through to ptMilo and DRedâs posts (with a side of EB and JK) because WTF who has time for all this?
Enough of that, thanks. Moving on, would it make sense to sit Mikal for Precious (sliding Josh and that lame-ass OG down a spot)? Hard to imagine it being possible politically, but if so, would it work better? It would certainly be good for the second unit, but hard to imagine the starters being as effective.
Edit: is there a loss on the Mikal trade, I’ll take it. I was as loud about that as about the OG trade, but they have not worked out the same so far… Plenty of season to be played, of course.
Since the off-season I’ve thought it would be best if we started two of our big wings and let Deuce start next to JB, but id be game to see if precious really has improved his corner 3
Considering the starting lineup is producing one of the greatest offenses in NBA history they should probably stick with it and try to hash out the defensive issues as best they can.
E was of course well-aware that “3 point defense” is basically astrology back in 2020-2021.
It’s. A. Bit.
That was not the idea.
The irony of you guys is you complain endlessly about people repeating themselves yet people repeat themselves because someone is constantly mischaracterizing what they say.
I will refrain from repeating myself. Look up what I originally wrote and find your mistake. Or donât. Whatever.
I mean weâre talking about a guy who tried to offer up âJosh Hart was forced to be a hustlebunny against his willâ as intelligent analysis in this very thread. His posts here are best enjoyed as a kind of dada oddball performance art and not as substantive discussion about basketball. You really have to approach his posts here in that context.
And FWIW I donât think the comparison to an NFL CB holds any water.
OG cannot simply canât lock someone down like Darrell Revis. There will never be a game where Jayson Tatum or Donovan Mitchell canât get shots off bc OG Anunoby is smothering them.
He doesnât take half the court away, either. You can score pretty easily on OG if he has to funnel his defender into KAT.
The question is whether taking a step back to merely a great offense (if Precious can sustain that much) would be worth the trade-off of not being terrible on D. I lean toward No, but I’m also aware that a fully functioning bench unit might really help us pull away while the starters sit.
I’ll catrch up on all this later, but from the looks of it we need a change of topic.
1. Cam Reddish is playing well for the Lakers since finally getting healthy
2. Frank is playing very well for his new team now that he’s finally getting healthy.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/international/players/frank-ntilikina-1.html
It’s a shame both of them lost so much development time to chronic injuries over the years. They are very different players, but both might have been net plus players had they been healthy.
Ducks and runs!
Can we get ruruland back in here for an update on when Melo’s TS% is gonna make it up to the .600 range?
It’s not necessarily an either or question.
Some lineups may make more sense against one opponent than another and another lineup might make more sense against a different opponent. You can always start one way, observe what’s happening and then change the minute distribution depending on what you need.
OK, I can sum it up.
OG is not God.
RJ and IQ aren’t as good now, but they have God like upside. đ
Therefore we overpaid in the trade and overpaid in salary.
The discussion of Melo’s Kobe assists was more interesting than this.
My theory going into the Gobert trade was that it was going to hurt Towns on offense because there would be less space for him to drive into the paint and finish or get to good spots in the paint. When he remained highly efficient on high volume I just assumed I was wrong and the T-Wolves managed to find ways around the spacing issues. But seeing him back at the 5 now with plenty of space makes me think he was just improving so much as a player, he was overcoming the space disadvantage enough for it to not be notcieable, but he would have been even better than that playing all 5 all along.
Guys, why are we debating hustlebunnies for the 1000th time when we could be debating Daniel Jones for the final time?
Hopefully soon we’ll be able to debate if Giants should draft Sanders or Ward.
I don’t particularly care about the Giants one way or another but their coaching staff/FO are likely to lose their jobs because they won too many games their first year in charge. Our regime sort of did the same thing but Randle fortunately was not Danny Dimes.
bobby neptune must be singing “Oh Danny boy”…in some watering hole today….
Cam’s at 7.3 USG lolol. Would have been a lot more fun if he’d just kept chuckin’.
One of the most Knickerblogger threads I have ever readâŚ.
Old beef for whatever reason has always been an essential ingredient in the Knickerblogger sandwich. We arenât kicking it to the curb.
I am happy to let things play out with OG. I think we will all be on the same page eventually. I also think that if Mitch can come back and be himself, the two of them out there together could be a lot of fun.
On the subject of Josh Hart, holy shit he is having a good season! He basically has been providing the kind of impact that was Mikalâs best case scenario..
And that rumbling bumbling stumbling layup the other night was my favorite moment of the season so far I think.
https://x.com/iqfor3/status/1859443135425675498?s=46&t=0wqff4cNt-sCGcDs-uMExw
Its still early days – this isnât his level – but itâs been great to watch.
And FWIW I donât think the comparison to an NFL CB holds any water.
“OG cannot simply canât lock someone down like Darrell Revis. There will never be a game where Jayson Tatum or Donovan Mitchell canât get shots off bc OG Anunoby is smothering them.
He doesnât take half the court away, either. You can score pretty easily on OG if he has to funnel his defender into KAT.”
The football analogy was not meant to be taken literally. It was in response to what you said here:
“He might be the best perimeter defender in the world but heâs kind of easy to avoid. Over the summer I compared him to a brick wall and said teams arenât just going to run into him. They can easily bypass him by going at Brunson or setting a screen on Bridges. Hence our defense sucks despite his greatness.”
The point being that OG taking care of his business better than nearly every wing in the NBA, especially without sacrificing any offense, makes the defense better, and probably a LOT better, than it would be without him. You can tilt your blitzing/hedging schemes towards those guys because OG can handle his own business one-on-one better than most, and he is also very strong in whatever scheme you put him in as an off-ball help/team defender…deflections in passing lanes, traps, weakside contests, etc. I don’t get why that is so difficult to understand. In fact, it comes across as purposely obtuse, since I’m pretty sure you and E know this and are just being argumentative.
howdy clarence đ
I was beginning to worry that we had become too boring for you…
hope all is well for you…watcha listening to today?
a couple of years ago it seemed like we were really maximizing the roster dollars spent…
it’s not like we don’t have several players on reasonable deals – it’s just we’re paying premium price for 2 of them..
On the subject of Josh Hart, holy shit he is having a good season! He basically has been providing the kind of impact that was Mikalâs best case scenario..
if josh actually managed to go the full season at 6 ast, 9 reb, 1 3pm, but sub 2 tov a game, he’d be the first to ever do it.
the 70pct ts and the human smelling salting is just standard trim now
“Itâs a shame both of them lost so much development time to chronic injuries over the years. They are very different players, but both might have been net plus players had they been healthy.”
Or alternatively, the injuries actually helped disguise their innate weaknesses because guys like you had an excuse to believe in the development that just wasn’t gonna happen. I suppose if Kevin Knox was injured all the time, folks might be blaming his lack of development on that.
Some guys just don’t develop, injured or not. Frank fucking sucked. Reddish fucking sucks. They would have sucked incrementally less with fewer injuries, but would still have sucked. It really is that simple.
Itâs a shame both of them lost so much development time to chronic injuries over the years. They are very different players, but both might have been net plus players had they been healthy.
all 37 views of the basketball reference nanjing monkey kings page were strat refreshing in case damyean dotson dropped 15 and 4 and he could stop here by to ring the register
“Frank Ntilikina averaging 7 points per game for Partizan at age 26” is pretty much the outcome I expected all along.
It was obvious Josh Hart had a down year for him last year. I repeatedly said it was probably a knee issue he said he’d have to play through all season long but it also could have been the newborn taking some time/emergy away from the court. He eventually had a great playoff which is why I was banging the drum that he should start this year. I was expecting a big bounce back year in terms of him finishing at the rim better and being able to make up a lot of rebounding and playmaking gap from the loss of Randle. He doesn’t even have to sustain what he’s doing now to be in the perfect role for what this team needs without Randle.
That Randle ignoring Gobert clip was pretty bizarre.
“geo says:
November 22, 2024 at 15:53
howdy clarence đ.”
Ummmmmmm……. Did Clarence make an appearance? I didn’t see one.
Hot take: Geo is secretly both Doogie and Clarence cleverly hiding behind wildly different writing styles.
I think it’s a metaphysical certainty that repeated injuries are one of the things that can stifle a young player’s development, especially when the player is rehabbing practically every summer like Reddish and Frank.
Depending on how bad and repeated the injuries are, the player may develop a bit later anyway (like KP), but there are more cases where they lose a step of speed and athleticism and never become the player they could have been.
If you are only asking how good KP is now without asking how good he could been without losing all that development time and bit of atheticism, you are mssing a key part of the KP story. To me, it’s kind of shocking he got this good despite what he’s been through given injuries and misuse in Dallas.
The goal for Frank was to become switchable plus defender (which he was before all in the injuries), good enough 3 point shooter to have to be defended (which he wasn’t) and secondary playmaker (which was kncoing on the door). He didn’t get there. It’s hard to know every reason why because initially he was making slow press from 3, but I assure you if you don’t think injuries were a major factor in that you didn’t follow him closely after he left NY. He was constantly hurt, like practically every season all season long and in the off season. He had no hope of getting better (on top of being misused most of the time as a PG).
The Cam injury story is similar. The guy is constantly hurt. It was just a different story. He was slowly improving his poor efficiency, but his basketball IQ and defense were high suspect. The strange thing with him is that on the Lakers they told him to forget about scoring because with James and AD, they didn’t need him to score. They wanted more defense. They turned him a better defender that just kind of stands oitside waiting for kickouts and other opportunities. So his usage dropped a ton, but apparently he’s defending better. Still, he’ll never be what he could have been after missing time virtually every year and off season.
I’m not sure what the story was with Knox, but imo he did improve quite a bit on offense over time. The problem for him was defense and other skills. He was so bad in every other way (as we saw fairly quickly after having some hope in summer league) that overall he could never be and NBA player even if he got a little better at those other things. He was terrible on both sides to start.
Frank and Cam showed they had talent one side and just needed to get better on the other to become rotation NBA players. Knox was a big negtaive on both sides and needed a miracle.
I learned one thing from the Dotson era. Just because a guy had one of the most relaxed strokes I’ve ever seen and put on a shooting exhibition as good as I’ve ever seen in warmups at MSG in my entire life does not mean he’s eventually going to be just as relaxed and become a 40% 3p shooter in NBA games. đ
Truth be told (and I have no inside info on this), I don’t think basketball talent and ability is why Dotson went backward instead of forward and is out of the NBA now. I think his problem was off the court.
“Hot take: Geo is secretly both Doogie and Clarence cleverly hiding behind wildly different writing styles.”
G-d forbid I be associated with that stuff. Hot take indeed, Pags. đ
One thing I have learned over the years on this blog is that some people will go through all sorts or contortions to avoid saying “Yeah, I was wrong about X.”
I’m going to make a pledge right now: if RJ Barrett ever turns out to be like a 4 BPM player, or I dunno, even like a 2 BPM player, or manages a TS+ over 100 over a 2000+ minute season, or meets some reasonable benchmark of production, I will type the following words into this box:
“Yeah, it turns out I was wrong about RJ Barrett. He turned out to be a good player.”
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