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69 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.04.06)”
Fun game that reminded me Summer League 2021 when sophomores IQ and Obi dominated and then-rookie Grimes showed some of his all-around skills.
Two years later, IQ has made it to another level, Grimes looks on his way to do it and Obi still has something to say (even if he’s a below average rebounder š ).
Obviously there’s no “big truth” to extract from this kind of games, but watch the way these kids move the ball is heartwarming (34 assists on 52 made baskets).
They like to play team basketball (and the Hart Foundation love it too).
Next:
Two games to go, now it’s time to rest Mitch, so he can work in his FTs, play Jericho, let Keels and Jeffries and Washington get some playing time, let Fournier find his rhythm.
The Pels are out of Dallas’ reach so I can live with a loss it that means screw the Lakers somehow…
two games to play in the season and the top two offensive rating teams in the nba are the sacramento kings and the new york knicks
Some days ago i was the only one believing that we’d get the Dallas pick. I’m feeling great about the odds now. š
Aren’t we 4th, Milo? Behind Sixers and Celtics, tied for 2nd. Our defensive rating is not so good (19th), but i hope we can step up in the playoffs.
Arenāt we 4th, Milo? Behind Sixers and Celtics, tied for 2nd. Our defensive rating is not so good (19th), but i hope we can step up in the playoffs.
bref has us 2nd but nba.com has us 4th. they must count possessions differently, i forget why.
Then i’ll trust you and BRef! š
And what about the defensive rating (19th on NBA.com and 18th on BRef)? Should we worry that it can haunt us in the playoffs, when defenses matter the most?
Cyber, less worried about defensive rating per se since we can parade out there a really good defensive unit if need be. The trick obviously is Thibs getting the rotations correct at the right times.
The only thing we’re glaringly bad at on defense is generating turnovers, I’m somewhat surprised we’re so mediocre overall
Offrtg on NBA.com is different from ORtg at BK-Ref. The NBA metric just counts possessions and averages points per 100 possessions. BK-Ref uses Pelton’s formula for the 4 factors to get its number.
I want to say they count ORebs differently? It might be that Pelton was deriving ORtg from the boxscore and didn’t have complete possession information for things not in the boxscore.
if the mavs beat the bulls tomorrow — bulls are locked in at 10 — odds are very high we keep the pick. the mavs would move ahead of the bulls to 11th with only the spurs left, and they would still be alive for the playoffs bc their last game coincides with okc’s last game. the bulls could also lose their last game to detroit with nothing to play for. so the mavs would be like 90% to finish ahead of chicago and another 50% to lose the coin flip if they didn’t. then you still have to worry about chicago making the playoffs with two road wins, so that would be another ~15%. and then the ~10% chance of jumping into the top 4. all-in, if the mavs beat the bulls tomorrow they are ~75% of giving us the pick with respect to the bulls (this includes the chance the bulls make the playoffs or win the coin flip but someone jumps the mavs in the lottery).
but it’s also possible for mavs to beat the bulls, finished behind the bulls, but finish ahead of okc, including by coin flip. this adds a bit to their odds. so i think it’s something like 85% to give us the pick if they win tomorrow.
Making these odds potentially even better:
In theory the Bulls should throw the Mavs game to improve their lotto odds since it doesn’t affect their seeding. They’re another team like the Mavs who are in a hole and could use an extra few percentage points to grab Wemby
I’m glad Billy Donovan agrees with me
I’m a relatively intelligent individual, but all of these combinations and permutations for our chances of getting the pick are more than I want to deal with. And now the “human decision” (regarding which players are playing, etc.) element is being added to it, which makes it literally impossible to predict. And coin flips, too.
Here is what I’m going to do, just for myself: I’m going to assume that the pick will *not* convey to us, and then be overjoyed/pleasantly surprised if it does. Just seems easier.
I want to see a game where both teams are actively trying to lose. It would be like Detroit over Houston by a score of 61-60. Damn that made free throw!!!
I’m with you, Doogie. Picks happen, or they don’t. I just want to roll around in my Obi nest, spreading Grimes butter lotion on my arms and legs while eating IQ bonbons and sequentially drinking from my iHart and JHart cocktail glasses.
There’s like a 90% chance the pick or the rights to the future pick get moved either way. The only real difference is the trade value. But it’s nice to dream about using it.
We won’t know for sure until the actual lottery anyway, so why worry? They are also capable of winning 2 play-in games and sending us the pick that way. The possibilities are endless. I’m just enjoying the ride!
āI love our young players so much! Isnāt it fun to watch IQ and Grimes and Obi?ā
and also
āYeah weāre definitely going to trade that pick for less favorable future picks, which we will then trade for even less favorable future picks, but thatās coolā
I’m just glad we don’t have to worry about the Maurice Ndour game
Raven, i’m assuming you’re using your Deuce umbrellas for the cocktail decoration, am i right?
I’ll hazard to guess we don’t trade for a future pick. I’d bet we trade the pick as part of a star package or replace Obi with an actual drafted player. It’d have to be a combo forward otherwise they fall into the Obi minute pit.
Cyber, I’m resigned to the hope that Deuce focuses the offseason on replacing his trebuchet for the Grimes slingshot. While hopefully improving his accuracy in part by downsizing the weapon and not having to preparez la vache each time…
Think my preferred draft choices at #11 are:
#1: Cam Whitmore (if he drops)
#2: Gradey Dick
#3: Taylor Hendricks
#4: Brice Sensabaugh
Of course, none of these guys will probably be on the team come training camp due to a trade, but that’s neither here nor there.
Without having done much research this year, I’ll throw Kris Murray in as a guy I like. Probably trade down for him.
We got Josh Hart for
1. The 19th pick in the draft that brought us Grimes and Douce.
2. The 22nd pick this year.
Seems like a good trade right now, isn’t it? Or am I missing something?
Please don’t bring up the 19th pick.
LOL
I don’t love two 1sts for Hart, especially since the Knicks have done well with late 1sts.
End of the day a 1st for Hart is probably about fair value
If we are talking draft picks for Hart, isn’t Knox a first? Or are both Reddish and Knox both sunk costs?
ā#1: Cam Whitmore (if he drops)
#2: Gradey Dick
#3: Taylor Hendricks
#4: Brice Sensabaughā
Iām genuinely unsure about this draft after the top five. We need better 3pt shooting and better perimeter defense, ideally at the wing, but no one fits that bill perfectly.
Iām pretty sure we will go for a āready to contributeā guy like Kris Murray, but we might be better off in the long run going for a young āif he leans to shootā guy like Leonard Miller.
That said, the odds are high that this pick, if we get it, is going out in a trade for a vet.
It’s really dumb at this point to keep having this debate.
While you want to get good value from your picks, trades and free agent signings, not every move has to 100 percent maximize our assets in order to be “good.”
Like yeah trading the 19th pick wasn’t ideal and then getting Cam not ideal, and sure, we had to add another late first round pick to Cam to get Hart. So if you’re looking at this from a purely asset maximizing angle, you can say it wasn’t good.
But Josh Hart is a damn good basketball player and exactly what our team/bench needed to take us to a new level.
The ultimate goal of a GM isn’t to maximize every transaction and asset but to build a good team that wins basketball games. Hopefully wins enough to eventually win a title. If eggs are broken along the way, as long as you’re not just chucking egg after egg onto the ground and you got enough eggs left over, breaking a few here are there is not a big deal.
No one gets GM of the year for accumulating the most assetts or picks or “winning” trades.
And a really good move will erase multiple bad moves if those bad moves aren’t crippling bad. Getting hart, drafting IQ and Grimes, signing Brunson…resigning Mitch and Randle on a team friendly deals. These moves far outweigh worrying about late first round picks.
I get it. The Knicks threw away picks for years. But it’s just so weird when Perry and now Leon have added picks to our treasure chest to then get all upset that we “wasted” one. Who the F cares?
for the millionth time…. the trade was actually a first rd pick for 3 months of josh hart…. he is a free agent at the end of the season….
for the millionth timeā¦. the trade was actually a first rd pick for 3 months of josh hartā¦. he is a free agent at the end of the seasonā¦
No, for the millionth time the trade was a first round draft pick for 3 months to convince Josh Hart who is a free agent after this year to resign with the Knicks.
Just wondering if you have read his after game comments and if you haveā¦
And for the millionth time, it was a good trade
so what happened to all this CAA insider stuff that this front office was supposed to have? we have to give up first rd picks for recruiting purposes now too?
We have to give up first round picks to get a player’s bird rights, djphan. You know this. You have repeatedly demonstrated a Strat level of willful obstinacy regarding the trade. Maybe the player Portland takesĀ ā at what will at best be the 23rd pick in the draft āĀ will turn out to be an incredible sleeper on a bargain contract. But Hart is exactly what this team needs, and he wasn’t going to be available to us this summer with our cap situation. Cam and Knox were both sunk costs. This was essentially a trade of a late first for a guy who is turning into the perfect role player. I’d do that every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
“for the millionth timeā¦. the trade was actually a first rd pick for 3 months of josh hartā¦. he is a free agent at the end of the seasonā¦.”
Come on man, we all know you know what Bird Rights are. That doesn’t mean there are no grounds to object to the trade, but this is flatly inaccurate.
“#1: Cam Whitmore (if he drops)
#2: Gradey Dick
#3: Taylor Hendricks
#4: Brice Sensabaugh”
I like all of these guys too, but I think I’d have Sensabaugh above all of them. I’m admittedly probably being influenced too much by fit though–replacing RJ Barrett with someone as smooth as Sensabaugh is the stuff of dreams.
I’m disappointed Mitch fell 3 blocks short of a triple-double, would’ve really been a classic
This is the opposite of my entire experience being a Knicks fan.
No one gets it for finishing 5th, either.
for the millionth timeā¦. the trade was actually a first rd pick for 3 months of josh hartā¦. he is a free agent at the end of the seasonā¦.
A free agent who is free to sign anywhere he wants.
Josh Hart has also contributed to wins this season and could possibly be the reason we win a playoff round.
And even if he signed with us this off season, having him play with this group of guys now sets us up to be better prepared to go into next season with a set rotation, people know their roles, have chemistry already developed. I mean we’re seeing a difference in the chemistry with Hart and other guys now vs when he first got here. It takes a while to learn people’s tendencies and spots.
So there is a huge benefit to getting him now both in regards to the current season but also next season. This isn’t even factoring in the fact that we can go over the cap to resign him cause we got his bird rights and he is way likely to stay here vs. going somewhere else if we didn’t trade for him.
It really sucks that we traded a #23 pick in a shallow draft for a guy who has 100% certainly made the difference between being in the play-in vs. being a 5th seed. And it would have been a better pick if we didn’t make the trade, and we would have been able to sign Josh Hart in free agency for nothing.
I’m so broken up about it, I might not even watch the playoffs. What a waste!
Mmmm, JHart with an ounce of sweet vermouth, a dash of bitters, and a brandied cherry…
Now let me spread a little more Grimes on my thighs…
so what happened to all this CAA insider stuff that this front office was supposed to have? we have to give up first rd picks for recruiting purposes now too?
Did you miss the Brunson reaction to the trade? Or do you think we could have snagged him otherwise, perhaps with another tampering 2nd round loss?
No it seems the plan is to.give up first round picks for recruiting purposes when the odds favour us. Just ask Dallas.
If we end up with the Mavsā pick I hope we donāt get cute with it, and instead use it to draft a promising prospect. The team still has some needsā shooting, switchable defenders, backup PG, stretch 4, etc.
Iād be fine even with a high floor, lower ceiling ācontribute nowā kind of player but if we get that pick we should not be punting it. We still need to add talent.
and i know that you guys know that you can make trades even though you’re capped out…. or does that not happen ever? because it seems like you have to believe that it was impossible to get him without bird rights…
the case for that seems pretty flimsy if you ask me…. maybe i am being like strat or swifty or whoever but i know for a fact that you can absolutely make trades even though you’re capped out… and i think you guys know this too… but hey.. i’m probably the crazy one here apparently….
Yeah JK would nice to make the pick and perhaps the fact that the non rotation guys get effectively zero situational minutes could mean they actually draft someone.
I would love to have a pick and I would love to draft a guy like Williams on OKC.
People still being miffed about the Josh Hart trade is quite surprising to me. He’s been amazing. I think he’s possibly one of the best trade deadline acquisitions in the history of the NBA. It’s a total no brainer.
āYou have repeatedly demonstrated a Strat level of willful obstinacy regarding the trade.ā
Donāt bring me into this. Iām only obstinate because Iāve been watching basketball for over 50 years. Itās tough to teach an old dog new tricks, especially when you are old enough to have seen a lot of new tricks fail to upend the old tricks. š
I loved the Hart trade.
I have been saying for years we could build a very good team using a combination of draft, free agency, and trades that would have internal upside, experience, and reach a competitive enough level to finally attract higher level free agents.
Thatās exactly where we are now!
Of course thereās still more work to do, but even the Knick haters in the media think the Knicks are positioned well. And thatās despite some inevitable missteps I said we would make along the way.
Why is anyone whining about the Hart trade (or some minor past error) when we finally have a playoff team, excess assets, are clearly an attractive free agent and trade destination, have upside internally, a management team that is executing what Iāve been talking about well enough to get us here, and a coach who Iāve defended from the start seemingly improving right along with our players?
We should all be throwing a party!
We are probably only one player away from serious contention.
I suspect that if we had OG Anunoby instead of RJ to go with our highly rated offense, weād have an even better offense and a much better defense. Thereās not a team in the league that would want to play us, not a single one. At the rate things are going with Quick, Grimes, and Brunson, we may not even need to bring in a stop star. We may just need a very solid two way SF to be another solid efficient option and shoot the 3.
Oh yeah, one more thing. Go UTAH!
Hart undoubtedly has made a great impact.
He could have made that impact next year, too. And we would have had a useful first round pick.
IMO this is one of those trades that rests on the outcome of the season. If the Knicks beat the Cavs and give the Bucks a run, then the trade is 100.
But if the Cavs beat the Knicks, well then we gave up a first to go from the 7th seed to the 5th for a player I think we could have easily acquired in the offseason. In that case my opinion will be markedly different.
This is where it gets tricky because Utah can theoretically pass the Mavs too. They’re in full on tank mode though so OKC is almost certain to win.
“I like all of these guys too, but I think Iād have Sensabaugh above all of them. Iām admittedly probably being influenced too much by fit thoughāreplacing RJ Barrett with someone as smooth as Sensabaugh is the stuff of dreams.”
I really liked Sensabaugh, but I looked a bit at his tape and I’m worried about three things w/r/t to him: First, his defense is a train-wreck–it’s just really bad. Second, I’m concerned about the dearth of secondary skills. Third, I’m worried that his awesome scoring won’t translate 1-to-1, especially around the rim–he’s very strong but not an athletic vertical finisher (and he doesn’t really get to the line).
He feels a little like Malaki Branham, also out of OSU, who was an elite scorer in college who hasn’t really put it together in his first year in the pros. And Branham had better secondary skills than Sensabaugh (who admittedly was playing the 6th man for a lot of his time at OSU, which maybe depressed his secondary stats.)
The other guys seem to have reasonable floors, I think, especially Hendricks and Dick. And their upside cases are pretty good too (particularly Hendricks and Cam.) With Sensabaugh you’re really banking on his scoring translating, and that’s maybe the skill the Knicks need least right now (they need a three and D wing who can pass, or a genuine stretch 4)
Iām coming in late to the Hart trade discussion because it was nighttime for me, but I want add that I think the odds of signing Hart as a free agent at the end of the season are being overestimated. Of course it could have happened, but it also could be that Portland was set on trading him and there was competition for him from other teams. If he was, say, traded to the Lakers for a second round pick, do you think heād really want to move his pregnant wife twice in three months if the Lakers wanted to keep him? Also , signing him as a free agent would require us getting under the cap (which would have costs) or using up our mid level exception (also a cost). So there would be opportunity cost too because we might be unable to sign a second player because of signing Hart.
I also want to say that when their is competition to acquire a player the price often seems high even if itās a fair price.
The Jazz are playing a bunch of guys I never heard of tonight
I was thinking someone would say which Williams on OKC. I would be fine with any of the three.
Yeah, we want OKC to win this, right? So that Utah doesn’t pass Dallas. And then OKC can then still get passed by Dallas.
As long as Dallas wins out and the Bulls lose in the play in Dallas will have the 11th pick. So theoretically Dallas not passing OKC would be better for the Knicks as long as they finish ahead of Chicago no?
The Jazz are 1.5 back and starting Luka Samanic so it’s really not that risky of them passing Dallas, but it’s technically possible.
But the other consideration is that you want one of the Bulls/OKC to have a better record than the Mavs so we get the 11th instead of the 12th pick.
Of course there’s also the risk that team behind Dallas makes it through the play-in and the Mavs go back to 10th.
Then again, if the Mavs are ahead of OKC there’s always the chance they get through the play-in and you’re picking 15th or 16th instead of 12th.
Given that the Mavs play the tanking Spurs and a Bulls team that is likely resting its stars, ideally we want OKC to win out and bet that Chicago doesn’t advance to the playoffs.
It’s all very complicated and depends on how risk averse you are and how likely you think Chicago or Dallas are to make it out of the play-in.
Oh, and if OKC & Dallas both win out and OKC doesn’t make the playoffs then it’s a coin flip for the 11th lottery slot. Dallas gets 11 outright if OKC manages to swindle their way into the actual playoffs.
But all the above is predicated on Dallas not flubbing two gimmes, otherwise there’s a whole different set of scenarios.
It’s very complicated.
I have no numbers to back this up and researching examples of this would take a long time. But from my own memory it seems like more often than not a good player will usually resign with the team he is traded to if that team wants to keep him and that team is good.
While we were a fringe playoff team befor me hart, there is a good chance that he would have gotten traded to another team as good or better than we were. Hart would have made that team better and that team would have his bird rights. So I think itās highly suspect to just assume bc he played with Brunson in college he wouldnāt resign to whatever team traded for him and gone to the Knicks instead.
Didn’t even mention the 2.2% difference in chances to move up between 11 & 12.
I read a nice story about what G league is really like and it featured Bostonās G league team. Samanic was playing there and they made the Gleague playoffs. But all of a sudden he got a ten day contract from Utah. He expected to be end of the bench but his first game there he played twenty minutes. Now he actually is starting. Iām happy for him.
https://theathletic.com/4374592/2023/04/04/maine-celtics-g-league-season/
By the way, G league sounds like a good place for young players to develop.
Okay, so now that OKC has defeated the Jazz, we now want OKC to lose its remaining game?
Knicks will send Spida home in 6, go to 7 games with Champion Bucks and get the 11th pick in the draft.
On draft night, Woj breaks a trade that Leon sends Fournier, 11th pick + three other protected picks for OG.
reposting to next thread