Knicks Morning News (2018.07.09)

I like Robinson’s potential but he is IMHO a long way away from being able to play consistent minutes in the NBA. If you ask me he should spend most of the year in Westchester. He was eaten alive by something called Thomas Bryant, was constantly swiping at balls with his hands, and probably is in terrible cardiovascular shape. In fact I think I read somewhere that the reason he was kept out of the combine is because his handlers thought he was so out of shape that he could only hurt himself there.

That said – great hands and feet, super quick twitch, and he definitely plays with a high motor. With those skills to fall back on, it’s hard to see how he doesn’t become a contributor if not this season then the next. It’s pretty reasonable to me to project his development like Capela — as a 20 year old rookie CC played 90 min total, then 1500 minutes the next two years, then really came into his own this last season as a 23 year old. Nice job by Perry getting him on a super-team-friendly deal– what was it, 4/6.4MM total with the 3rd season partially guaranteed and 4th season = team option? It really doesn’t get better than that.

Definitely liked what I saw from Ntilikina last night — it almost just seems like he has to believe that he’s big and strong enough to take it right at people. And his passing was MUCH better last night.

Alonzo Trier – thought he was trash Sat, and he was burning dumpster trash Sunday. We win that game going away if anyone other than Trier is on the court.

Knox was fine. Jumper not falling yet despite having some clean looks last night. Not sure what to make of his drives. Clearly he doesn’t have a lot of craft yet, but he really did get fouled all those times, and like the broadcasters said, it’s a skill to get fouled. His pullup off the PNR looked super nice.

Overall I think it’s been pretty good. Everyone playing hard. Team looks very athletic which is so different from the Phil era.

Judging Summer League performances based on W-L record is as bad as when people look at MLB Spring Training games as an indication of future success. This whole endeavor is about gleaming a glimpse of what our young bucks can do.

Yeah, the score matters not at all. You can question whether Frank can break down defenses like that when the quality of the competition is higher – and I assume Z-man will question that early and often – but the fact that he even had the inclination to do it, and the moves to go with that inclination, is encouraging after that Game 1 whimper.

What we saw from Frank yesterday:

— Drive & finish over smaller defender.
— Stop & go for floater
— Post-up fadeaway (like DeMar DeRosen)
— 3-ball (1-5)
— ISO dribbles for moving midrange J
— Drive & floater
— Bullies defender in post for turnaround J

The skeleton is there for a nuanced scoring repertoire. He should be able to drive and finish/post up fadeaway over every smaller PG they match up on him. He just needs to not give a fuck and take over the offense without hesitation or second-guessing himself on the court.

I don’t care about the score, but sub-par performance vs sub-par players isn’t a true indication of skill. Will Frank dare to drive on Harden? Can Robinson box out Boogie? Will Knox be dunking over Durant? I didn’t see anything that got me really excited.

and I assume Z-man will question that early and often

Why single me out? Why don’t you check the summer league game 1 thread and count the number of posters that questioned that? And did you read my comment yesterday saying that he should try to emulate Shaun Livingston’s game?

Aside from some occasional trolling, I’ve consistently said that I think that Frank is not an NBA PG and never will be. Yesterday I saw him score 17 points on 14 shots. Two of them were somewhat off-balance turnaround fade-aways in the lane that bounced around the rim and dropped in. Another was a straight-on floater from 8 feet that did the same thing. He went 1-5 on 3’s. He had a strong straight line drive to his right where he overpowered a smaller defender who was off balance. I didn’t see anything other than more aggressiveness than in game 1, and nothing new about his game that would give me cause for optimism about his PG prospects. He better start consistently hitting that open 3-pointer or his prospects are not good. He’s not going to get by on pedestrian passing (for a PG) and defense alone, and that turnaround shot is hardly reliable.

Didn’t Thomas Bryant sign for Washington? Who is the guy who destroyed Robinson? Was it maybe Tony Bradley? O Diamond Stone (who I thought was good)?

@13 well last I looked, JK47 said pretty much what I’ve been saying all along. DRed has been skeptical for a long time. I’ll take their intellectual company over yours any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

The skeleton is there for a nuanced scoring repertoire.

Yeah, brilliant analysis. (More like anal-ysis, as in you’ve been up Franks ass from before he was drafted.)

Frank Ntilikina reminds me of Joe Johnson

In what way? Facially? There is zero similarity to their games.

But keep dreaming big, maybe it will come true! As for me, I think Mitchell Robinson reminds me of Wilt Chamberlain. Just a matter of time!

I’ll take their intellectual company over yours any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

My world is shattered. How will I go on?

Yeah, brilliant analysis. (More like anal-ysis, as in you’ve been up Franks ass from before he was drafted.)

Mad?

DeRozan became an OK 3 point shooter, but shot it more often, which was a huge turnaround for his game in the modern NBA. I keep seeing glimpses that Frank has an above-average 3 point shot, but he really needs to nail it to become a good starter- but he has time. He’s 19, and didn’t train with Fizdale yet in camp. We have to give him the year to judge him. He’s younger than Robinson, who we’re talking about developing for 2-3 years, for crying out loud.

I really hope our impatience here isn’t reflected in the team FO.

@21

Yeah, it took DeRozan awhile to figure out how to make that game work for him at an All-Star level. He didn’t even post above replacement player level metrics until he was 26. My guess is that Frank sees DeRozen’s footwork as something he can use when he was asked to play off the ball more often. It was nice to see him incorporate aspects of that game into his repertoire as a point guard. Postup fadeaways and turnaround jumpers can be useful for a 6’7 point guard when he’s being defended by 6’2 opponents.

Whatever you think of Ntilikina, one can’t deny that his handle got much better. Maybe he’ll never be a PG, but the kid looks like he’s improving.

I go Johnson over DeRozan because DeRozan is obviously one of the top athletes at his position. Joe Johnson was a slower guy who could handle and beat you with a variety of slow crossover moves and had the ability to separate from just about anyone. He wasn’t an above the rim athlete and he was a good passer at the off guard position. I think Frank is going to live under the rim, contribute to ball movement, and use his size to score if he’s not shooting open 3 pointers. Defensively, he’s going to do his usual lockdown routine. If he never develops any other part of his game he’s on track to become Andre Roberson, and that’s still a useful player.

Frank Ntilikina is a shooting guard long term who may be able to play point guard minutes for 10 minutes a night.

I think that anyone who isn’t ultra impressed by Robinson is simply a nattering nabob of negativism 🙂

The think that struck me last night was as he was getting hammered in the post by a smaller burlier guy, I flashed to KP getting Pwned by Okafor the first 3 times down the floor in his first game until it dawned on him to 3/4 / front him the 4th time down the floor and essentially ended Okafor’s career. KP had years of pro experience to figure that out, but Robinson hasn’t played at a level higher than HS and didn’t know what to do.

He has elite skills physically and a body capable of putting on enough mass without loosing athleticism plus non Ewing hands. I’d like to be his agent in 4 years! He may not be ready for prime time like Kemp and Garnett, but he should get some NBA back up minutes and do double duty at Westchester a la Dotson last year to log sufficient minutes to grow.

I am laughing at all the experts said Knox was lazy, can’t rebound, can’t pass, can’t defend, can’t attack the rim and can’t get to the line. The guy is 18 bloody years old…. he has requisite skillz to be a very good player if he gets the time to marinate a bit. I’m thinking he is a lot better than he was 4 months ago 🙂 He isn’t anywhere near ready to help a team win, but I wouldn’t be surprised that these guys become very valuable players in the fullness of time.

They certainly aren’t Mike Sweenty or Mardy Collins….They have elite talent.

Knickerblogger is the kind of place where 10,000 minutes of shitty play will result in a “let’s wait and see what [whatever head coach we’re cursed with] does with him,” but 20 minutes of Summer League playing time is enough to plot a player’s WARP eight years from now

Fair point Jowels, but would you not be deliriously happy had you drafted Robinson 37th after 45 minutes of play from what you’ve seen?

My general take on Frank is that he’s not very good right now, but he does have some legit NBA level skills and we probably won’t know if he’s able to play point guard until he’s like 23. He’s also got the size to play off ball on the wing so it’s also possible he becomes a productive NBA player at a different position but it’s going to take some time regardless.

I don’t think the primary question about Frank should be whether he’s a PG anymore. It’s important in some respects because if he’s not going to play PG, then we still need one. But other than that, the important question is can he play basketball. He’s at least 6’6″ now and I would be surprised if he’s closer to 6’7″ based on what I saw when he was standing next to Knox. We know he can defend (probably multiple positions now) and we know he can make plays well even if not at a high PG level. If he’s not going to play PG, he’s going to have to bring some other things to the table like rebounding, a good 3 point shot, other scoring etc… I don’t care much if he’s the PG or not. Can he play basketball well?

Knickerblogger is the kind of place where 10,000 minutes of shitty play will result in a “let’s wait and see what [whatever head coach we’re cursed with] does with him,” but 20 minutes of Summer League playing time is enough to plot a player’s WARP eight years from now

lol

But then again, there would be nothing to talk about. Anways, I love Robinson’s game, hope he gets stronger and Capelaier, I don’t like Knox’s game, hope he gets smarter and Frankier, I like Frank’s game, hope he gets aggressivier and Knoxier.

I really think if someone pushes the right Frank button he can turn into Mike Conley or Klay Thompson.

yeah it’s hard not to be excited about Robinson. He has a combination of defensive traits you just don’t see much. And even though he’s getting pushed around, he looks like that might not be a long term problem. he’ll probably have a lot of 17 minute foul out type games this year and count me in for those.

Can we get some content on this site?

Frank just has amazingly little burst for a PG or really any wing player.

Frank is decently quick but it often gets mitigated because of his poor handle right now. I’m hoping that his explosion can improve when he gets more leg strength.

I think ultimately the best player to play next to Frank is probably…Kyrie Irving. Kyrie plays ball-dominant combo guard and Frank has some ballhandling duties and takes the hardest guard matchup on D. From Fizdale’s interviews it seems like maybe up to 3 players might initiate the offense on any given possession so the designation of “PG” probably doesn’t matter that much.

That said — the team has been seriously missing anything resembling dribble penetration since… Jeremy Lin?

Re: Courtney Lee – I’d try hard to move him to Memphis who really looks like they are trying to win. If we do it before the season we can do an asymmetric trade in terms of roster spots (up to 20 allowed in preseason) but if we wait until later we would have to cut guys in order to make it work. I can imagine something like Lee for Ben Mclemore, Jarell Martin, Marshon Brooks, and a 2nd round pick, then we would waive Martin and Brooks presumably. We could take Jamychal Green instead of Martin/Brooks/2nd round pick but we prob would have to give something of value up to get Green, who I think is pretty decent.

I’d like to see Frank hit the boards harder. With his height and length he should be good for 5-6 rebounds per 36. I excused him last year (he had a few games where he rebounded very well per 36) because he was a rookie and thin. But he’s taller and stronger this year. If he can get 5-6 rebounds per 36 as a guard that adds some value. I don’t think he’s going to be a top scorer. We don’t really need him to be. But when you’re not a scorer you have to find other ways to add value. Rebounding is an area that I think he should do well at if gets aggressive in that area.

Man, if we could kinda fuse Kevin Knox and Frank Ntilikina we would have a top tier superstar on our team!

Jokes aside, they have displayed almost opposite skill sets in those 2 games, Knox is aggressive and relentless and has been able to attack anyone, but no ability to slow down or play in a controlled manner, while Frank is great on defense and shown some skills on offense, but plays too much under control, too unselfish and without explosiveness.

I honestly wish fiz would stop talking about b-ball .. it’s time yo show and prove . I want his coaching to do the talking.

I’m loving the interchangeable aspect of this core of Knox frank and kp and maybe Robinson. I want to see how these guys play before we dole out big money on a fa like Kyrie. Besides the fact when is the last time a big signing worked out for us? Since Allan Houston they’ve all been busts.

Besides the fact when is the last time a big signing worked out for us?

It ended on a sour note, but I’d say Tyson worked out very well.

Other than that and STAT have even had any major FA signings since then? We spent most of the 2000s over the cap and making dumb trades.

They should be dumping older players and building/developing / creating a core… we have the makings of a core it’s time to cultivate that.
Focus on moving Lee and Timmy using lance, kanter to Take back contracts and gather assets till 2020, then see where we are at in terms of big signings.

Isn’t one of the reasons we’re trying for free agents in 2019 that we could do it before KP gets his new cap-clogging deal? How much more difficult would it be in 2020? Or would the expiration of other deals like Lee’s offset KP’s new money?

we have signing rights, We can sign him above the cap

So then the plan if we can’t move Lee is to sign Kyrie with kanter $ and buy out lance?

I dunno. Jayson Tatum might be pretty special. And Fizdale might be great, but probably won’t be Brad Stevens. And Scott Perry has made some nice signings and contracts, but he’s probably not Danny Ainge. It’ll prob come down to whether Kyrie wants to come to NY and not so much whether this team is better than that team, because unfortunately, that team in Boston is very likely to be much better than this team in NY.

I have to say I was a little disappointed in Dotson last night. You would think as a 24 year old 2nd year player he would dominate summer league. Instead he was pretty invisible. Small samples as they say.

Boston is colder than NYC, has worse nightlife and is full of racists. Never underestimate those factors when considering whether an athlete would leave a good team like the Celtics.

doesn’t kp have a massive cap hold? I doubt we can fit two max guys since we would only barely have enough for one…

I wonder if Tatum doesn’t take a bit of a step back next season. A good chunk of his offensive value was based on elite 3 pt %-is he going to shoot 43% again? And even with that 43% shooting he still posted a negative obpm. He doesn’t rebound or pass much and how much of his defensive value came from playing in that system? Still, if the C’s would like to swap him for Knox…

Re the cap – I’ve posted on this a few times before. Quick summary is we can get to one max cap slot in 2019 fairly easily – combination of Kanter space, stretch-waiving Noah, ideally finding a taker for Lee. That would get us to a max plus a bit more space. We can’t get close to two max slots unless we pay someone to take Noah to get his whole deal off the cap, and also find a taker for Timmy (ie give away picks or promising young players – bad plan).

If we wait until 2020 it’s true that KP will have his full salary on the cap instead of a 17m hold. but if we haven’t waived Noah, he expires and so does Lee. THJ has his option. If he declines it we have a remarkably clear cap – KP, Frank, Knox, our 2019 and 2020 1RPs, plus a partial guarantee to Robinson – about $50m in salary. Even with min holds, we could get to around $55m in space.

Personally, waiting for 2020 seems like the smarter play to me.

Totally fair of KOQ to say, and do.

Can you really blame him.

@72: Thanks for that.

Do you know if there are specific dates you have to stretch someone by? Everybody is talking about September for Noah, but if he and Fiz meet and make peace and we decide to roster him at the start of the season, can we stretch him before next summers free agency if we think we will need to, or would we ha e to wait for September 2019?

@78

September. That’s why it hasn’t happened yet (from what’s been reported) – otherwise you’re stretching more years, and thus sustain a higher cap hit.

I wonder if Tatum doesn’t take a bit of a step back next season. A good chunk of his offensive value was based on elite 3 pt %-is he going to shoot 43% again?

I don’t know. Tatum shot 250 3 pointers last season. Reigning 3 point king Steve Kerr didn’t shoot his 250th 3 pointer until he was 27 years old, and nobody questioned whether he’d continue to be one of the great distance shooters of all time.

Looking at Tatum’s splits, he was pretty darn consistent from 3 point range. Dropped off a bit in the dog days of January, but bounced back to elite status for the entire spring.

I think you can waive and stretch someone any time; it’s just the financial consequences depend on which year of the contract you do it in. In September it’s a new year as far as contracts go so there are fewer years of Noah to stretch, and the cap impact in following years is lower. That’s why people want to wait until then.

But Honestly, there’s no point in stretching him unless we want to spend the resulting cap space on someone. There is a point in waiving him if we don’t want to play him. It frees a roster spot and lets him go on with his life. I don’t know if we can waive him and not stretch him, but then decide to stretch him later instead of when he is waived. That would be nice for us if we could do it.

I don’t know if we can waive him and not stretch him, but then decide to stretch him later instead of when he is waived. That would be nice for us if we could do it.

I’m fairly certain we cannot do this. That’s why it makes no sense to me to even think about stretching him or waiving him before we have an agreement in place with a free agent. It obviously sucks for everyone involved (even the guy making millions of dollars to sit around to some extent) but that’s the reality of the situation. Thanks Phil!

I don’t know. Tatum shot 250 3 pointers last season. Reigning 3 point king Steve Kerr didn’t shoot his 250th 3 pointer until he was 27 years old, and nobody questioned whether he’d continue to be one of the great distance shooters of all time.

Looking at Tatum’s splits, he was pretty darn consistent from 3 point range. Dropped off a bit in the dog days of January, but bounced back to elite status for the entire spring.

There are 85 seasons where guys have shot .434 or better on 242+ attempts but there are only 5 guys who’ve averaged .434 for their careers with over 200 threes made. Is Jason Tatum a very good three point shooter- yes. Is he going to be one of the greatest shooters of all time? Not so sure.

Best player? Giannis.

Re the stretch provision, I think that’s right that it rolls over each sept. So from this sept, we’re stretching 2 years over 5. From next sept, 1 over 3. I think we can take the 2 over route any time from sept through next summer so I’m with those arguing you wait until there’s a clear use for the cap space. Otherwise let him ride it out to 2020 and get the full space.

Also agree re preferring to waive Kanter at this point as there are no cap consequences and he really doesn’t fit. Only slight caveat is might he return a 2rp at the deadline?

Slight issue we have is we have to waive someone now to create a roster spot! LT maybe?

Is Jason Tatum a very good three point shooter- yes. Is he going to be one of the greatest shooters of all time? Not so sure.

Yeah, it’s a good point. Of the 12 rookies to shoot 200 3 pointers at a +40% clip, Steph Curry, Wesley Person, Brent Barry, Mike Miller, Ben Gordon, and Klay Thompson went on to continue to be 40% shooters year in and year out.

DJ Augustin, Gary Neal, Deron Williams, Paul Pierce, and Courtney Lee tapered downward as they got older.

So, yeah, if he follows the trajectory of some of the guards on the list, he’ll have to increase is production in other areas.

KOQ said that he went to Indiana to play for ‘more than next years’ draft’

On our present course KP may be saying that at the end of his “next” contract because quite a few of our key players (if you include next year’s draft pick) may still not be at their peak. 🙂

Its almost like Dotson is a second year NBA player playing in a summer league game!

Dotson will be out of the league in two years.

KP is what, 8 years younger than KQ and would make like 60 million less if we walked and didn’t resign with us. But yes, lets take the fact that our back up center decided to sign with another team as proof that we screwed up again bc LOLKNICKS4EVA AMIRITE?

It was meant to be humor, but there was an element of seriousness to it. We are choosing to allow productive players on attractive contracts to walk in favor of all out tanking. Without making a value judgement on it, our long term core players right now look to be Porzingis, Frank, Knox, Robinson, and whoever we draft after the tank next season. That full core is at least 5-6 years away from peaking assuming a few of them actually get very good. Knox, Frank, and next year’s pick are still teenagers. KP should probably get used to playing for draft picks for awhile longer unless we are masterful at drafting or sign some all star caliber players in the next couple of years.

Loses Ariza.
Loses Mbah a Moute.
Signs Michael Carter Williams.
Can’t agree on a deal with Capela.
May bring in Melo.

Daryl Morey is obviously an incompetent boob. 🙂

(then again maybe he’s not done?)

The Knicks’ plan is probably to go all in on Kyrie Irving next summer and then to throw the kitchen sink at NOLA for Anthony Davis. I doubt we’ll actually have cap space to make a big move in 2020 if we hand out two max deals (KP and Kyrie) and a top 3 lottery pick salary next summer, so if you’re looking to add another all star it’s gotta be via trade. I’m not sure we have enough to land Anthony Davis, but I do know it’s going to be impossible to move enough money to sign two max contract players plus KP this summer.

I could see a situation where Tim Hardaway, Kevin Knox, a 2020 1st round pick, and Mitchell Robinson is the best deal on the table for NOLA. NOLA is going to have to listen next summer as they run the risk of losing AD, and if we’re going after (and landing) Kyrie, we won’t have time to develop Knox into Danilo Gallinari. Boston and Houston could offer better deals, but if I’m a GM I’m not doing business with Danny Ainge, and I’d need more than Clint Capela for AD.

Kyrie & KP healthy with a bunch of one dimensional young & veteran players will be a top 4 team in EC.

There is not single player out there in the EC that can win a playoff series by themselves other than a Kyrie Irving.

Kyrie Irving is probably in the 99th percentile of Knicksy players, but alas, he’s still a Knicksy player and thus if we sign him to a max contract I can only predict that it will end in a Knicksy way.

I love Kyrie in a theoretical sense.

Kyrie, KP, and Knox could easily become one of the most dynamic scoring threesomes in the league in a 3 years. Throw in Frank as a secondary playmaker alongside Kyrie while taking the tougher defensive assignment and possibly Robinson scoring efficiently on lower usage inside and shutting down the paint with KP and we are talking about a pretty serious team.

The risk is having both Kyrie and KP on the same team. That’s a lot of injury risk to take on both from a contract perspective view and chance to win big. I guess a lot will depend on how Kyrie holds up next year and how KP comes back.

If we are successful in acquiring Kyrie Irving I think we have to do an immediate pivot and harass NOLA until they give us Anthony Davis. Once that contract is signed there is no waiting for Knox and Robinson to develop. Ntilikina would be in year 3 at that point and should at least be a full blown lock down defender that you can slide next to Irving. Maybe the Knicks think Irving, TH2, Knox, Porzingis, Robinson, and the 2019 1st round pick is good enough, but Anthony Davis might be the best player in the league starting this season and he will be on the trade block. If Irving is indeed the play, then we need to be setting up maneuvers to land AD.

They really needed to move that Ryan Anderson contract, although I am not so sure that is an easy task ATM.

Also, really love Denver signing Torrey Craig on the 2 year $4 million offer. Had the opportunity to see him play a fair bit when he was playing in Australia. Perfect contract for a energy guy/defensive stopper (especially on an offensively minded Denver roster) and his shot has gradually improved. Deal even better now Chandler is out. If the Knicks are making any moves, that’s the kind of deal I would like to see as opposed to blowing our wad on Ron Baker (even though I have an unreasonable love for the scrappy scamp).

Morey looks good because he’s (1) traded for two Hall-of-Fame guards (2) found Capela, who is a legit max player and (3) hasn’t made any franchise-crippling deals, a la Wiggins/LaVine/Bargnani/Melo. The Lin and Asik contracts didn’t work out (but didn’t cost much), Anderson’s contract is godawful, the signing of Howard yielded nothing but locker-room cancer, and he hasn’t done much in the draft outside of Capela, unless you want to count the rookie contract of Chandler Parsons. Give him credit for putting together a package for “future perennial 6MotY James Harden,” but there were plenty of smart people who saw him as a championship piece. That Presti didn’t doesn’t make Morey a genius.

I think his many failings are saved by his few extreme-value moves. Moving Harden to PG is a stroke of genius — not sure who gave the green light on it.

Anyone who voluntarily signs MCW gets a vote of no-confidence from me. If he signs Carmelo at any price, I’m willing to wager that he’s a secret idiot.

I mean, even if the warriors suffer multiple injuries, without any depth and with Melo and MCW playing roles instead of better players is Houston even a threat? Can’t they just lose to the Lebron Lakers?

If Paul is healthy for the playoffs I can see them being the 2nd best team still, but that’s not a guarantee in any situation. They have a seriously shallow roster if anything happens to their main players.

So the Rockets got a new owner and immediately lost two or three good role players to free agency. It could be a coincidence, but if I am a Houston fan, I’m worried

I mean, even if the warriors suffer multiple injuries, without any depth and with Melo and MCW playing roles instead of better players is Houston even a threat? Can’t they just lose to the Lebron Lakers?

MCW took a minimum deal. I doubt he’s really going to play any minutes for them. He’s essentially replacing, Bobby Brown and Briante Weber. They really didn’t have an actual back-up point guard last season. So I don’t mind MCW as a break-in-case-of-emergency guy. He can also play the type of defense they like to play (he can switch with the best of them). He just has no offensive game at all (like, at all).

Celtics fans are a little jealous that we got Mitchell Robinson. Robert Williams hasn’t exactly been everything they hoped for so far in the offseason.

I don’t see Lebron putting up Lonzo’s entourage so a trade is imminent one way or the other and it will probably involve Kawhi. Supposedly, the King wants to play more off the ball as a 4 in the Lakers new look offense. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Celtics fans are a little jealous that we got Mitchell Robinson.

Boy are they spoiled.