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Knicks News: Division rival declines player option, Mitchell Robinson comedy Daily Knicks
124 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.06.14)”
From Macri’s newsletter today:
Hartenstein has more playmaking skills and a slightly more varied offensive game than Mitch, though he didn’t really get to show the former until the second half of the season. But Mitch’s limitations on offense creates challenges for us that are then exacerbated (as Macri also writes about today) our relatively poor passing.
Yeah, but let’s not forget that Mitch’s league-leading 4.5 offensive rebounds per game was a big reason why we had the 3rd-ranked offense in the league (it sure as hell wasn’t RJ’s shooting!)
Mitch was, in fact, ridiculous this year. Capela came in a distant 2nd with 4.0 orb/game and then it drops to the 3.4/3.3 range.
Mitch is a super valuable guy to have — at least for a few more seasons.
Replacing RJ would be a much clearer/easier upgrade except losing all his bricks could negatively affect Mitch’s O-rebounding…
Yeah, Mitch was key to our very unconventional path to having a top offense. Entirely possible that we can keep kicking butt that way if everyone is healthy, and/or if we upgrade at SF (whether replacing RJ or him being more consistently good). But we might have more room for error if we had a center who could do more on that end, even if the offensive rebounding wasn’t quite so otherworldly. (And it helps that we have Certified Hustlebunny Josh Hart in the rotation.)
Katz polled a bunch of FO execs around the league about what IQ’s new contract might look like: https://theathletic.com/4608478/2023/06/14/knicks-immanuel-quickley-extension-how-much/
Lots of interesting stuff in there, including the complications of the new CBA that we’ve been talking about lately:
As always, this is your friendly media member reminder to actually click on links to support the writers you like.
Yeah, Alan, I feel the ‘upgrade Mitch’ story line, while a valid take, is also classic NBA jump-on-the-bandwagon behavior — look, Jokic is a magician, let’s all get one! Unfortunately there’s exactly one Jokic, so most teams are, in the end, going to have to invent another way of doing things.
I do think we have a minor-league version in iHart, but we have failed to use him effectively so far. I’m hoping we can expand our bench plays to enable us to take advantage of his baby-Jokic skills, but I’m not holding my breath.
re: IQ, I think somewhere in the 4yr/$80M range, give or take $5MAAV depending on market conditions, seems fair. For all of his gifts, he’s a flawed player, not a top-3 guy on a contender, maybe not even a top 4 or 5 guy unless the team is stacked. I think Katz’s points about how one GM felt about the Poole and Herro contracts says it all, and that was pre-new CBA:
And that’s the key: the contract has to not be “team unfriendly.” It has to be something that you can sell to the GM that thinks he’s worth $30M AAV and will give you back that kind of value in return.
I don’t necessarily want to trade Mitch but if we moved on from RJ and got a 3 who was a much better shooter, wouldn’t Mitch’s offensive rebounding prowess be a little less necessary?
He was huge for us this season because we were a poor shooting team. But if we improve our shooting, that advantage for him becomes less necessary, no?
Here is a name I randomly thought of last night as a trade target:
Klay Thompson.
Look, I don’t know if he’s available or not and I’m not saying he’s who we should get. But I thought it was an intriguing idea. He’s 32. Golden State is getting older with their big three. He’s got one year left on his contract. Would Golden State maybe look to pivot and rebuild? How realistic is it for them to make another run at a title?
He played in over 60 games this season. Maybe he’s ready for that 3rd year fully bouncing back from his injury? His 2 point shooting percentage has dipped from his pre-injury days but it was higher this season than last season and he shot 41% from 3 this season.
I’m sure his defense has taken a step back post-injury but I can’t imagine he would be a net negative on that end.
Maybe it’s a dumb idea but what do people think?
you don’t need a playmaking 5 just like you don’t need a playmaking 1-4… your lower usg players who finish plays that your playmakers make can come from anywhere….
the thing that we’re lacking is being able to play to mitch’s strength besides running an rj/mitch pnr a couple times a game…. we’re not very creative in using him which is the bigger problem…
Re: Mitch, I think it’s fair to say that he’s a huge reason why we got to the second round, both in terms of playoff seeding (we would likely have lost to any of the top-3 seeds and his domination of the Cavs’ bigs. And like the Dubs with Looney, or the Lakers with Dwight, or the Spurs with Splitter, or the Pistons with Ben Wallace, he can undoubtably be an important part of a championship team.
But that team has to have the personnel to absorb his weaknesses. And so the question is more “how do you use your assets to get those guys?” and less “how do you build around Mitch to absorb his flaws?”
Mitch’s incredibly team-friendly deal makes him a super-valuable trade asset, especially now that teams in the West know that Jokic isn’t going anywhere and having someone who can disrupt him without constantly helping off of cutters and shooters is highly valuable. If losing Mitch is the price for getting stronger at the non-C position, I think it’s worth paying. I will continue to stick by the “you can get 80% of Mitch for X% of the cost, with X being something between 20-60)” is applicable here. Isaiah Hartenstein is a case-in-point. Is the drop-off you get by replacing Mitch with iHart worth the uptick you get at the position you improved by trading Mitch? It’s a very valid question, imo, and one without a simple answer because Mitch’s contract is SOOOO team-friendly that keeping him also makes lots of sense.
If you want a clean bathroom you can hire a janitor or you can stop shitting on the floor. You don’t need to do both.
Windy says teams around the league are monitoring Zion’s availability, implying that people think NOLA might be willing to move on from him. That team is definitely going to get too expensive, and while he’s in theory the franchise player, he so rarely plays that I wouldn’t be stunned if they decided to make him the guy they don’t want to pay anymore.
So your Knickerblogger Question of the Day: What would you be willing to give up to acquire Zion? Don’t worry about what NOLA would accept. Just how many players/picks/swaps would you be okay going out in a deal for the guy.
Maybe Mitch could just, I don’t know, practice shooting one summer.
you’re saying this indirectly but it’s important to note that upgrading from RJ won’t necessarily result in a straight upgrade… we were already the #3 offensive team so thinking in terms of the 2023 reg season offense isn’t gonna work…. we had a very similar effect with thibs’ wolves team with butler.. towns and wiggins… with wiggins playing the rj role ‘tanking’ a top 5 offense…
where an upgrade will help is make the offense more robust…. we could theoretically replace rj with lavine and finish ‘worse’ at #6 but we’d be tougher to defend come playoff time….
“Maybe it’s a dumb idea but what do people think?”
It would obviously depend on the price, which I think will be high. Indications are high that GSW are going to run it back one more time, so it sounds like it’s not going to to have a chance of happening. The question is, if you are willing to go there, why not just go for LaVine, who is probably the better long-term bet at this point in their respective careers, especially since any Klay deal would have to include an extension to make sense.
“So your Knickerblogger Question of the Day: What would you be willing to give up to acquire Zion? Don’t worry about what NOLA would accept. Just how many players/picks/swaps would you be okay going out in a deal for the guy.”
It’s a great question, one that I was contemplating yesterday when I read that report. Honestly, I’d probably just pass without making an offer, since I know that the offer would have to be at least as large as the Spida deal. Zion is a bad defender, like really bad. He’s a suspect shooter from 3 and the line.
When you throw in the injury concerns and the character issues, seems like a “fool’s gold” kind of guy I’d stay away from at this point. The hype from his college and pre-draft days are still inflating his value and obscuring the risk.
Of course, if he becomes a salary-dump like Julius would have been in the 2022 off-season, sure. But that’s not happening. The hype is still too strong for that.
this is not just this cba… gm’s were behaving the same way with the last contentious cba negotiations….
the middle class is inherently under threat just due to the nature of the talent distributions in the nba… it’s an arms race starting at the very top of the pyramid…. which is why fans are obsessed with top 10s and mvp debates…. it’s all about getting your alpha dogs .. your core guys… keeping your core guys and whatever crumbs are left are to the role players…. who are easily replaceable just due to the nature of their skillset….
it’s so much of a thing that the nbapa had to hold the line on things like the mid level exception…. so contending teams can bid up role players… if there’s anything resembling a hard cap.. and you’ll see this effect in play in any auction style fantasy league…. is that the middle class does get jerked….
there’s nothing really changed with the cba that makes obi and iq worthless… but guys like that… and grimes and hart… aren’t really worth that much to begin with….
That’s about where I am (I’d probably do 110% of the MLE). With a big “so what?” if he doesn’t accept it.
We still have him under contract for one more season and he is welcome to spend that season watching player salaries get crushed under the new CBA.
The best thing Leon has done – by a country mile – is sign Jalen Brunson to the best contract in the NBA.
He will negate all that surplus value if we have RJ Barrett, Josh Hart, Immanuel Quickley, and Obi Toppin signed to bloated contracts.
This is a no brainer. He made a mistake with RJ last summer. Should’ve let this season play out. Learn, Leon. For the love of god, learn.
Mitch is part of a dilemma.
On the plus side he’s young, improving, his OREBs are a key to the possession advantage that makes our offense acceptable, and he’s also able to defend, help, and cope with the P&R.
One the downside, you can’t have Mitch, Randle, and RJ in the starting lineup together and expect the spacing to be good enough to maximize the skills of Brunson, RJ, and Randle to get to the rim.
The question is not what we should do with Mitch.
Mitch would be fine as long as he was on the court with the correct players.
The question is who do we move out of Mitch, Randle, and RJ to open up the space?
That depends on who is available and at what price.
If you want to say it would be nice if Mitch wasn’t so limited and could do more things on offense, that’s fine. I’ve been saying for years that his limitations were going to be an issue against certain matchups and especially in the playoffs.
It’s always a plus to upgrade a position, but this not a Mitch issue. It’s a team construction issue with several options for fixing it.
We are an unfinished product.
if there’s anything we have learned over the many decades is that when nba gm’s have extra money to burn… they will find all sorts of creative ways to actually light it on fire….
players are going to get paid…. it really only takes a few stupid gm’s to set the market…..
LOL
I’m hoping the middle class of the NBA doesn’t get hurt because of this deal. I understand why people think it will happen, but that thinking assumes that teams will take the salary out of their mid range negotiations instead of by refusing to sign their best players to the max salary available. Maybe if teams have a lot of salary tied up in good, worth it, but not great players they will have leverage to give a little less to their stars.
I think we should upgrade the SF position, which means RJ for OG, but what would be the cost to do that? I love Mitch, but i also agree he’s very limited, so i keep getting back to Myles Turner. I bet Indy would bite a package of Mitch, Obi and one of our protected picks, which is reasonable value to pay for a small upgrade, but an upgrade that can transform our game (Myles Turner has range). As i said some threads ago there’s only one thing Mitch is better than Myles, yeah you guessed it, it’s OREBs. Otoh, Myles this season shot .373 from 3P and .783 from the line.
For the ones thinking we should just run it back, the oddsmakers aren’t with you. In the Sports Illustrated link above, we have this:
I like the idea of an OG and Myles Turner upgrade.
Maybe I’m risk averse or something but I would much rather go the route of nice upgrades that address specific areas of weakness as opposed to some huge, earth shattering move or moves that brings in some questionable “star” like KAT or Beal or Lavine.
OG would be an upgrade over RJ with 3 point shooting and defense. Myles would be an upgrade over Mitch offensively. Maybe a step back on defense some but to me, OG upgrade offsets that and the spacing in a Brunson, Grimes, OG, Randle, Turner starting 5 would be immaculate.
If the loss is RJ and OBi plus some picks to do all this (plus Fournier and Rose) it seems like we could then pick up a back up PF in free agency and be good to go, no?
Never underestimate the value of an elite janitor for a bathroom used by over a dozen humans. Life is messy. Shit happens!!!
However, less need for offensive rebounds allows Mitch to get back faster in transition and better protect the rim, which also leads to less high percentage transition threes. Better wing shooting opens up the PNR lob game too…not just paint space for ball carrier to finish. Mitch won a playoff series for us. Let’s celebrate him this summer.
FWIW, I’m not automatically on board with Macri’s argument. Just thought it was an interesting discussion starter. I agree that upgrading the spacing and defense at small forward is the easiest way to take the next step.
Seems like an incredibly safe assumption to me?
I’m torn on IQ because I hate the idea of nickel and diming the guy, but in a league with an increasingly hard cap I think it’s obvious the best thing for the Knicks’ financial situation is to offer him something like 4/$60M this offseason and if he doesn’t bite, just play it out. Hard to imagine anyone giving him much more than that in RFA with the double apron hanging over everyone’s heads.
Macri’s newsletter was good but I’m hesitant to draw any clear cut conclusions from the fact that a decent number of recent finalists had higher usage, and just generally more versatile, centers. It’s a noteworthy datapoint for sure, but plenty of teams that were definitely contenders but missed the finals didn’t have such a center and the sample size is necessarily small. I’m with djphan–you need a certain amount of shooting and playmaking in your lineups in general and it seems less important than ever which positions you get it from.
That said, we should be looking to upgrade the roster and if doing so via the center position is the best opportunity, then sure, let’s do it. I’d just be wary of doing something silly like hemorrhaging Mitch for, like, Vucevic.
No Beal please. He’s getting close to being washed. He belongs on some vet team that’s going to make their last run or two at a title before blowing it up. He doesn’t belong on the Knicks.
It’s about time Macri came along. It’s time to move on from Moneyball.
As to Zion. Zion’s the play, Zion’s always been the play. Start the bidding at Randle, one of the protected 1s, and two unprotected 1s. Negotiate from there. If it winds up as something like Randle, Quickley, Grimes, and three unprotecteds, I do that in half of a quarter of a millisecond.
A healthy, motivated Zion is a top 5 in the association player. IF he’s healthy and available, you immediately dispense with the debates about players like Zach LaVine and Karl-Anthony Towns and get to the real thing.
I’d give something like the Spida package, but with Randle instead of RJ. Package: Randle, Obi, one of Quick/Grimes, 2 unprotected, 2 protected. But we mustn’t forget that another move is needed after Zion, we’d need to spend a lot of money in candles and light them all, along with prayers, for him to be healthy and playing.
This reminds me of that scene from Back to School where Rodney says, “I like the way you think”.
So let me get this straight. They get a 2 time all-NBA player who gets 25 and 10 every night and literally plays 70 to 80 games a season, 40 minutes a night. Plus they get a good back up power forward, either a starting caliber SG who plays good defense or a 6th man of hte year contender, plus multiple first round picks and we get a player who has yet to play even 30 percent of the games in one regular season?
This is absolute fucking madness.
Zion to Michael Sweetney, “Hold my lunch. On second thought, give it back to me”.
Zion to Michael Sweetney: “I don’t need your lunch, bro — I got a .652 true shooting percentage on 30.4% usage.”
Probably Mitch too, with Obi to Indy. And maybe one of Quick and Grimes, with RJ to Toronto for OG. If it’s Quick, maybe we should include TJ McConnell in the Indy trade. The problem is how many picks would get this done, if it leaves us with no chance to trade for the next disgruntled superstar, i’d say pass, if not, i’d say let’s do it.
I fixed it for you 😉
No need to get mad, Zion won’t be available. I think he can be like Embiid, when he starts playing, he’ll dominate. You don’t believe that, so we’ll have to agree to disagree.
Macri has a baby brain when it comes to Mitch, he just doesn’t like him.
We had one of the best offenses in the NBA last year. We don’t need to move one of the keys of that offense because he doesn’t shoot.
If Indy accepted my package of Mitch, Obi and one of our protected 1RPs for Myles Turner, would you do it or not? And if not, if you can elaborate i’d much appreciate.
@Cyber That is a very good trade for both teams. I would do it although we would be losing 2 of my favorite players.
I don’t know, is Myles better than MItch? He’s different, I suppose. I’d think about trading them straight up but it seems expensive for a fairly lateral move.
I Hart played slightly more minutes for us last year than Mitch, only a few less per game, was worse overall and much worse against Miami. Why aren’t we trading him?
Like just FTs would really help.
Let the Beal rumors begin! I don’t want him but I’ve read reports that he can probably be had for a pretty huge discount compared to what other players of his status would command.
Gonna be another interesting summer in the NBA.
Ok, fair enough. And thanks for your reply. I’m probably weighing the differences a lot more than you. I think not having to fear the hack-a-Mitch in the playoffs is a good upgrade, and the same to the ability to score in more ways than only dunks and putbacks. It’d be good to be able to feed the C to score around the basket, whereas with Mitch they don’t even have to defend him, they just need to prevent the alleyoop.
Embiid missed one full season, his first one. He’s obviously missed time since then but he does actuall play. Zion doesn’t play. Ever.
And I will get mad. I am mad. The disrespect towards Julius is out of control. Honestly, people act like he’s a fucking scrub. It’s ridiculous.
Embiid missed his first two seasons in their entirety and played 31 games in his third season. He’s played fewer than five seasons worth of NBA games.
You know Beal offensively would be the perfect SG alongside Brunson, he’s actually a very good passer and would be a perfect secondary ball handler. Problem is he’s turning 30 and has a ton of mileage already and has never been considered much of a defender but with his shooting plus passing ability he could age gracefully at least on the offensive end. But of course there is also his contract….
Doesn’t make him a scrub, but he’s not in the same galaxy as a player as Zion is.
Don’t even know what you mean, this message isn’t for me, i guess. I just included him in a trade because we’d be getting back a PF, and i don’t think Zion and Randle are compatible.
Love Zion but don’t know about having Mitch playing alongside him on the offensive end…
When Embiid got hurt he focused on getting himself in great shape, he became known as “Swole Embiid.” He’s a high character guy who did everything he could to get his body in shape, and who took his career seriously.
Zion does not seem to be following that path. He’s young and could definitely grow as a person, and his talent is undeniable. But if he doesn’t get in shape he’s going to have a short career. I think the issue of intangibles is a legitimate one with Zion.
Turner is much more versatile than Mitch. He shot 37%. He can also play 4 with IHart at the 5. IHart is a perfectly cromulent back up 5 for the money he’s making. I don’t see any reason to trade him. I think he will put up better numbers this year if he is healthy.
Because you’re suggesting we include a 2 time all NBA player who is almost always healthy for a guy who literally can’t stay on the court and you’re suggesting that in addition for that swap we give up 2 more young players and 4 first round picks.
Even assuming Zion, when healthy, is better than Randle (a huge assumption but fine, I’ll give it to you), there is no way giving up 4 first round picks plus 2 rotation players (who are young) plus our all NBA player would make us better.
Randle for Zion straight up is the only thing I would consider. Even then, its a huge risk.
That’s why its disrespectful to Randle.
Beal’s contract is absolutely horrendous. One of the few examples of a very good player being arguably a negative overall asset because he’s simply paid too much.
That said, he also might present a unique opportunity to get a very good player for, what, Fournier/Rose/a single pick? This is a bidding war I’d withdraw from very quickly because his contract is so bad, but if he can really be had on the cheap we should be involved.
Re: Zion, I can’t quit him. He was simply too good and too fun back in the days he played a lot of NBA basketball. If he can be had for e.g. Randle and a few picks, I’m probably pulling the trigger and hoping for the best. James Dolan can afford to hire an army of chefs and nutritionists. I don’t know what can be done about the affinity for porn stars though.
It’s not even close, Swifty.
Let’s agree to disagree.
Knicks receive: Bradley Beal, Zion Williamson
Wizards receive: Derrick Rose, Evan Fournier, Obi Toppin, 2024 DAL pick
Pelicans receive: Julius Randle, unprotected 2024 and 2026 NYK picks, 2025 MIL pick
Who says no?
Yeah, this is a concern. But he’s only 22, i’d hope he can learn with each situation that comes up, so probably he’ll know better next time.
If we low-ball IQ then I’d bet some team gives him $30M to be their starting PG.
IQ is better than Poole or Herro
Zion is a 6’6″ PF who is a truly terrible defender for his position and who can’t hit 3’s or make FTs. Embiid is a 7’0″ C who is an elite rim protector and scores at all 3 levels. He just put up a .655 TS% on a 37 usage and it STILL wasn’t enough to get his team out of the second round. Comparing Zion to Embiid is like comparing KP coming off of his ACL tear to Jokic. It’s all based on hype.
IF, if, if he gets his head screwed on straight and stays healthy he’s a huge improvement over Julius on offense, but at a price of a guy who will get targeted on D all over the floor. (Not that Julius isn’t, but Zion is even worse than that!)
If NOP is looking to voluntarily swap him out, that says it all. If he’s what the hype says he is, no way they should move him at any price. If he demands out, then the price will come down anyway.
“Who says no?”
The Pelicans and the Wizards.
A few quick hits. I am not enamored with Bradley Beal. I can’t see how an often injured super-max player with a declining skill set is a good idea.
Starting with 2012-13:
Games played: 56, 73, 63, 55, 77, 82, 82, 67, 50, 40, 50
Career VORP: 1.0, 1.0. 1.1, 1.0, 3.5, 3.1, 2.5, 2.9, 1.0, 1.6
Trend is obvious.
No to Zion or anyone else other than Randle at PF, including Obi. I want a better supporting cast around him.
Mitch, I love you, but instead of posting pics of new cars to your collection, I would rather see daily videos of you hoisting 1000 free throws. And pay a great offensive big coach to teach you some down-low moves.
“Re: Zion, I can’t quit him. He was simply too good and too fun back in the days he played a lot of NBA basketball.”
When was that? He didn’t even make it through his freshman year at Duke. He got hurt his first summer league game. I would do it straight up for Julius, but he is a huge injury risk. He also doesn’t seem all that motivated to play basketball.
Unless Washington is sending us picks—multiple picks—I want nothing to do with Beal
I would, i don’t want Beal. He’s declining, he has one of the worst contracts in the league, and we’d be hoping that team would take us to the title. That’s a lot of hopes and prayers for my taste. One player in the starting lineup is enough for the hopes and prayers department.
Beal has the contract and injury history that people think LaVine has
Can we keep the janitor until we prove our sphincters work adequately?
Our diet of midrange shots is very appetizing to an offensive rebounder like Mitch, and unless we deal away Randle (for who I don’t think we will get equal value) he should stay. Our offense has been pretty good.
If you believe the on/off numbers, if we don’t play with Cam or RJ, we are a +11 team (in 1300 minutes, comparable to the +13 in 1500 minutes for the Nuggets starters that in the last thread was seen as a sign of greatness).
I would really try not to outsmart ourselves and just try to swap what is not currently working for something better and keep the course.
I’ll blame Alan for the flame wars about Zion and the disrespect for Randle! 😀
Shams says that the Bucks and Heat are expected to be top suitors if Beal is put on the market. How in the world can Milwaukee fit that contract into their salary cap?
the problem with replacing mitch.. and other jam more high usg guys in the lineup type of deals…. is you create a usg crunch…
you saw this effect with the heattles where bosh’s usg and production suffered because there wasn’t enough ball to go around for him to be like the toronto guy everyone knew of him… he was just parked outside the 3pt line and got whatever opportunities wade and bron were willing to give him….
with someone like turner.. he’s ~20 usg but with the knicks he’d probably be less… or someone else in the lineup would suffer … so you’re not really getting the offensive upgrade you’re counting on… same thing with getting OG and Turner or Beal and Turner…. you’re in all likelihood getting someone vastly different than what you intended…
which is why trading out RJ is best since he’s at relatively high usage and replacing him with a more efficient version of him would be a relative plug n play upgrade….
Everyone’s objections to Beal and/or Zion are eminently reasonable, but man, it’d be hard to pass up the opportunity to accumulate that much talent. Probably irrelevant, as New Orleans likely wants bluer chip assets if they move Zion.
iserp is right that the numbers all scream that we’re a bonafide contender if we, say, simply swap RJ out for LaVine. For that reason alone, I continue to think we should probably just do that if we can.
I’m not seeing a way unless they want to trade Middleton, which I suppose is possible? Not sure what getting someone older than Beal does for Washington though.
Sure, but let’s not preemptively be the stupid GM who extends him at the price we’re afraid a stupid GM might offer a year from now.
Beal is not even good. He is like the ideal 2007 Knick
I see ESPN proposing Bradley Beal to the Heat for Herro, Robinson, and picks and I have to say that makes a ton of sense.
I’m with you on this, Swifty. I know his postseason was disappointing but he sprained his ankle twice. He really shouldn’t have been playing. Give the guy a break.
Beal has a full NTC so he’ll have a lot to say about his destination.
I’ll be surprised if he won’t end up a Heat…
Next year is the last on Middleton’s contract, plus whatever picks they get for Beal.
They likely move Middleton immediately to a contender if it isn’t a 3-way deal.
It’s possible they bet on Khris being healthier than Beal, which could get them to the playoffs.
IMO, we shouldn’t be worried about USG beyond the point that we have enough efficient scoring OVERALL and pieces that fit together.
The Heat couldn’t care less that Bosh’s usage suffered as long as he was efficient and brought defense, spacing, and some boards to the table. James/Wade were very efficient on very high usage. As long as Bosh was OK with the sacrifice for the greater good, there was nothing else to worry about.
Turner would give our offense greater flexibility from the C position, remain efficient, and help the efficiency of Brunson and Randle going to the basket.
OG would immediately give use greater efficiency and spacing from the SF position.
Where the shots/usage wound up falling would be a matter matchups on any given night and what seemed to be working best, but that team would be awesome on offense and defense.
IMO, we’d be one of the favorites to win it all.
I don’t buy this at all because that’s exactly what the Knick’s issue is. When Randle handled the ball he got doubled because Mitch was only a thread under the hoop. Randle, RJ and Brunson could give up 2% each to a useful offensive center. Here are the USG% for last season (primary players):
Player USG%
Julius Randle 29.5
RJ Barrett 26.2
Jalen Brunson 27.2
Immanuel Quickley 20.9
Quentin Grimes 14.4
Isaiah Hartenstein 11.2
Mitchell Robinson 10.1
Obi Toppin 19.5
Jericho Sims 7.4
Miles McBride 14.6
Josh Hart 12.6
I hate the Beal contract, but if we can get him for RJ and Evan, he doesn’t have to be worth $50mm. He just needs to clear the delta between his cost and RJ’s.
Barrett v Beal
24mm v 46mm
26mm v 50mm
28mm v 54mm
30mm v 57mm
This is probably exactly what Pat Riley is thinking with Herro, btw.
I’ll just repost my original thought from early in the thread and add that his contract sucks.
It makes no long term sense.
I’d WAY WAY WAY rather focus on OG and make us better now and long term.
You’re right. It’s not close at all. Randle is way better than Zion.
That trade is also super disrespectful to Mitchell. Who is, you know, an actual all-star player who has been to the playoffs multiple times.
Zion Williamson is a bust who hasn’t done jack shit for his NBA career. He’s literally approaching Greg Oden status as far as all time busts go.
Honestly, fans of the franchise that traded a first for Bargs are even fucking considering this?
But Randle doesn’t perform well in the playoffs?
Yeah, Zion doesn’t perform at all!
But look at Zion’s numbers! OK, over how many games?
He is so overrated and an absolute bust. His career is going nowhere. Feel free to screen shot this comment when he turns it around and becomes an all nba player. It ain’t happening.
Did you love the Eddie Curry experience? Have I got the player for you, Knicks fans!
I like Randle. The player, the person, everything. But Williamson’s age 20 NBA season was much better than any of Randle’s, so you do kind of have to consider it if a swap is on the table (it’s not).
The Heat trading the Herro + picks package seem inevitable. Their preferred target is definitely Dame, so the question is whether they settle for Beal before Dame becomes available.
I, too, would rather trade RJ Barrett for OG Anunoby than for Bradley Beal.
The problem, though, is that Toronto doesn’t want RJ Barrett. They never wanted RJ Barrett. They never will want RJ Barrett. It’s just something we made up here because RJ Barrett is Canadian.
If he showed a strong desire to get in shape and actually become a better basketball player it might be worth gambling that his injuries could be put behind him also, but he’s giving me every indication he wants the money, partying, and porn stars and couldn’t care less about being great at basketball now that he has the money.
Miami is in shockingly good shape, picks wise. They actually own as many of their own first round picks as we do. They don’t have any surplus picks, but they have enough to make at least one deal.
I don’t know what Toronto wants, but if they don’t want RJ that doesn’t mean we can’t make a deal with them. They may want someone else. They don’t have Jakob Poeltl locked up yet. Maybe they’d prefer Mitch and picks than paying more for Poeltl.
Then maybe we can trade RJ as part of another deal to bring in a C. Maybe the Pacers would even be interested in RJ. They are rebuilding.
My point being, there are several paths we can take to fix this, but imo Beal is a bad option.
Eddy Curry was never any good, was a negative BPM player every season of his career. Zion is actually pretty fucking awesome when he manages to get on the court.
But that’s the thing: he doesn’t get on the court, and worse, he doesn’t get himself in peak condition so that he might actually be able to stay on the court someday. Injury prone players are a risk, but injury prone players who also have a questionable work ethic are a whole other kind of risk.
I get the idea of buying low on Zion. It’s intriguing. Superstars are hard to find. I just get the feeling that it would be immensely frustrating having him on the team.
of course but they also could do with a lot less than bosh and have been fine…. paying bosh the max to sit on the 3pt line wasn’t exactly an efficient deployment of resources… it was only fine because wade and bron gave you so much….
brunson and randle are good but if you just need your center to block some shots and sit on the 3pt line… you dont need to invest 20mm a year to do that… and yea it would hurt you in our case….
Ben Simmons rookie season is also better than any of Randle’s season, but the outlook is not good. We could get lucky (like GSW with Curry) or be stuck with a permanently injured player. Right now, Zion is already signed to a max contract, and the gap to Randle is not that big that I want to make the bet that he will be healthy.
usg isn’t outlayed all at once…. usg’s are different depending on who is on the floor… if you’re saying the offense would be better giving some percentage of their shots away from them and giving them to turner… that’s a tough case to make considering…
1)turner has a 77% 2pt assisted rate…. meaning he’s highly dependent on others creating for him…. and
2) turner is a career .350 3pt shooter…. in fact most of his outsized value is dependent on him shooting 3s well…. if he isn’t… his bpm is near zero… or league average…
and a big reason turner did well was because of haliburton… and as great as brunson and randle are… it’s going to be really hard to recreate the situations each of them had… considering we have a hard time involving any action with our bigs anyway….
I’m not worried about resources unless the owner is worried about resources. I want the best possible player at every position and players that fit together coherently. If some player is being underutilized as a scorer, I don’t care. If someone gets hurt or is in foul trouble, that guy can step up.
To me, Turner, Randle, OG, Grimes, Brunson, Quick, Obi, Hart and Hart is one of the contenders to win the championship even though it doesn’t have one of those elite superstars. Now whether we could pull that off using Mitch, RJ, picks, and filler contracts I don’t know. That’s for the Rose and company to figure out, but I think we have the assets.
you’re probably anchoring on the 2023 version of turner and OG and plugging and playing into the 2023 lineup but reality rarely ever works that way because the situations that made them successful are going to be hard to repeat… even on the same team!
give them less opportunities maybe they become more efficient… or maybe turner turns into 2021 at 16% usg shooting 33% from 3… give OG less opportunities and maybe he’s just what grimes gives you….
and these resources matter because you’re giving up picks for guys that you could probably get for a lot cheaper than first rd picks… which is exactly the mistake hart was…. maybe not all of those picks turn into good players… but each of those are opportunities that could potentially become a haliburton… or jalen williams or desmond bane or someone who could actually be a high usg star that you’re actually trying to trade all your picks for….
We don’t necessarily want Turner shooting a lot of 3s unless he’s wide open. We want the opposition to have to defend him outside so the middle is not clogged up like it is with Mitch. The value of that accrues to Brunson and Randle because they will be able to get into the paint more often and be more efficient without the opposing C standing there waiting for them, but it’s Turner providing the value.
This is basically my old KP misleading stats defense.
Why did Dallas have KP shooting 3s from 25-30+ feet?
It wasn’t to maximize his TS% and stats. It hurt his TS%. It was because he could make just enough of them that you couldn’t leave him wide open. That often took a big man out of the paint and allowed Doncic to get inside easier. It was net positive for the team even though KP’s value was accruing to Doncic on the boxscore and KP’s own boxscore looked worse.
“I’m not seeing a way unless they want to trade Middleton, which I suppose is possible? Not sure what getting someone older than Beal does for Washington though.”
RJ and one or two of the protected picks works for me.
That’s the opposite of what I do. I advocate against that kind of boxscore analysis.
I’m looking at individual skillsets and how to maximize our team output by fitting pieces together well.
I’m not saying there’s no chance I’m wrong, but I see several ways to move this team forward significantly on both sides and it comes down to correcting the spacing issues without sacrificing defense.
The advantage of Turner & OG is they’re capable of exploiting mismatches in the playoffs. You can’t hide Duncan Robinson or Trae Young on OG.
With Turner you drag Adebayo out of the paint or force him to leave someone else open (at least in theory).
I’m not sold on Turner but these things become more important in the playoffs.
Sadly, one of the two protected picks is Washington’s. It’s unlikely you’ll convince them that there’s a real chance of it converting while they’re literally in the process of tanking.
Here’s one proposed trade for OG I found…
We don’t have the firepower to compete in this space.
you would think at this point – the thunder and rockets could get just about any young talent that may be available…
I’m hoping OKC makes a move to upgrade their roster…shai alone makes them very competitive…imagine if they’re able to get mikal…
Masai is pretty smart, but I don’t think even he has the ability to hoodwink Rockets management into giving up such a massive haul for OG Annouby.
Not happening.
Strat, you’re basically saying:
Trade RJ & Mitch for OG & Turner
I know there’s “stuff” thrown in, but if Leon could pull that off, it’s a big win.
As the original advocate of RJ plus pix for OG a year ago – before the extension – I can say I would still be for it. But the time it could be done cheaply has passed. And that trade alone – for a good but limited player who is often hurt – is not enough to make us a contender. Add Myles and yes, that could do it – tons of spacing, plenty of defense. But I don’t think we’d have enough to get Myles after trading for OG.
Which is why I suggested the all-in trade for Bridges. Send Brooklyn so much they can’t say No, get a better player than OG who is never hurt, go to the ECF the next four years.
I know, Al; Brooklyn won’t do it. But 5 first round picks plus cap relief in taking Simmons would set them up beautifully. Bridges is a complementary player; you don’t build around him. That’s why it makes sense for Brooklyn. And is a gamble for us – all those picks! – but this is the moment.
We still have him under contract for one more season and he is welcome to spend that season watching player salaries get crushed under the new CBA.
i think everyone probably knows this but just in case not, it’s maybe worth saying that players as a whole are not going to get crushed or even nicked under the new cba. it’s only the distribution among players that’s up for debate. and of course there’s an argument that to the extent this happens it would merely partly mitigate the artificial price constraints that have long transferred economics from the elite players and young players to all other non minimum veterans.
The cap is going up, the players are getting more in aggregate. The big difference is teams won’t have the ability to create super teams and keep adding talent like the Warriors have done. The harder cap means more competitive balance. It’s great for the league. Speaking of competitive balance, we’ve now had 5 different champions in the last 5 years.
idk how much it matters, but Randle scored significantly better with Big Hart on. RJ was much better with Mitch on the floor. Grimes was a bit better with Hart and IQ was a bit better with Mitch. Brunson was essentially the same with either one.
Yes, poor wording from me.
One class of player is going to be squeezed, IMO: the $120mm role player. Essentially IQ.
I don’t know about that Hubert. He looks like a pretty valuable piece either as a starter or perennial sixth man of the year candidate. You seem pretty bearish on him. I don’t know why.
why can’t quik replace RJ in the starting five?
I’m not bearish on him at all. I think he can be the 4th or 5th best player on a title team.
I just think it’s critical we use our leverage to make sure we have him on a team-friendly contract.
The money you guys are talking about is Herro & Brunson money.
Herro helped carry the Heat to the NBA finals before he got his extension. Brunson lit up the Western Conference playoffs.
IQ shit the bed.
He blew it. If we pay him like those guys now, it’s straight up charity.
We get to sign him on terms he can outperform.
then the new CBA sounds like a good thing…or, is it just a thing…
so, you can have one 40 to 50 million player, and one more player making 20 to 30 million, but everyone else is below 20?
are the penalties: “significant” – outside of money, if you don’t stay within lines, do you forget any draft picks?
yeah, I don’t think I have the science of roster construction in terms of nba payroll and all the freaking rules – quite sorted out…
Speaking of Brunson, when he was at the same stage IQ is currently, he was willing to sign for $55mm. He had to go light up the playoffs in his walk year to get $100mm.
I do believe that, like Brunson, IQ will make a leap and we’re going to have a great player. But he failed to do it in time. Sucks for him, great for us.
29 years ago tonight, the New York Rangers lifted the Stanley Cup in MSG.
I see what you’re saying hubie…
it seems like quik started the year off slow and finished poorly…
honestly, if we go back at it with the same group, I’ll be a bit disappointed, but – I really believe a lot in jalen brunson…
whatever the right combo is to have around him, fill the roster in…
silly thinking, I just wish we had a JJJ on our team…I know there just aren’t very many of those…
it’s funny – the guy we seem most sure of going – seems to have played really well in the playoffs…
I wish obi well…
Is Miles Turner a Ruff Rydah?
I ask that only partly in jest. I’ve barely watched him, but in those few scattered games he never seemed to exert his will on the game. Very peripheral. Barely notice him.
On the other hand, Mitch can absolutely wreck games (I mean on D when players shy away from the paint and won’t even challenge him, and with his Oreb, although with his foul shooting there’s always the possibility…).
You’re probably right, but consider the following. Harden voluntarily signed for significantly less so that Philly would have the money to acquire mid priced role players and be more competitive. Also, generally when someone extends a max player at the max, they are paying more than anyone else could because the CBA gives a player’s existing team a financial advantage. There is financial space there where they could sign for less than the absolute max and still be paying more than anyone else can. It doesn’t have to happen that max players take less, but this new CBA is fundamentally different from the previous one in that going over the aprons significantly affects your ability to build a team instead of just taking lots of money out of high spending owner’s pockets. Players were not motivated to take less just to save their owner some money, but players do want to play on the best team possible. I can see some players making the trade off.
IQ at age 23 had a 1.7 BPM. Brunson had a -0.9 BPM.
By the time the extension kicks in the salary cap will have increased by ~20%.
The cap will continue to increase at a rate higher than IQs deal.
$20-$25M is perfectly reasonable for IQ. If he has even a decent playoffs next year he’s going to cost a lot more.
EB I agree.
I don’t think Zion is as bad defensively as Z-Man paints him to be. He hasn’t been a good defensive player yet, but he obviously has the speed and strength to be impactful, and he was an excellent defender during his year at Duke (led ACC in steals and top 5 in blocks). The fact that he has that much room still to grow is what makes him so tantalizing. When he got injured the Pelicans were 1/2 game behind the Nuggets for 1st place in the west. Even without a strong defensive presence from him, the Pelicans were a dominant team mainly because he can score the ball so easily when he plays. The issue going forward isn’t his defense, I don’t think, it’s that he just plays sooooo little and durability is the new market inefficiency. He’s a real gamble, but the ceiling is just so damn high it’s almost hard not to roll the dice.
All this said, I think the Pelicans want Henderson, so a theoretical Zion trade would have to go through Charlotte or possibly Portland. NO doesn’t want future darts, they want a specific draft asset which kind of takes the dice out of Leon’s hands anyway.
DW that’s fair, but as of now he hasn’t shown much and it’s just another thing to worry about. The larger point is that it’s hard to evaluate him going forward because the data is so sparse, and a chunk of that is a between the ears issue, not just bad luck. It’s also worrying that his game is dependent on explosive leaping, which makes the injury issues that much more worrisome.