Knicks Morning News (2019.05.15)

It’s actually not a lousy pick, and I can finally change my handle without jinxing the draft

Just one question, since NO likely won’t accept the 3rd pick without MitchRob for AD…

Can Barrett play the 2 defensively in the NBA?

Just tryina warm up to the idea of not having Zion and Morant…

Don’t get me wrong, think Barrett is a fantastic prospect…but I want Zion or Ja.. dammit shit! LOL

@5

Maybe if someone does really well in a 3 on 3 workout, heh

Maybe if someone does really well in a 3 on 3 workout, heh

Silky.

@4

Can Barrett play the 2 offensively in the NBA? Dude can’t shoot. Unless he turns into Dwyane Wade I’m not seeing how he survives at guard in the pros. Of course, I’m not really seeing how he survives at the 3 either without a shot.

@7
Barrett fits better to me as a secondary playmaker. I wonder if his shot can be fixed though. Sometimes it looks like his shooting woes are a result of selection and other times…oof…at least from 18 and out

The silver lining of this all (besides the Dallas picks) is that the other 2 teams with the same odds of picking #1, got screwed worse.

I’d be open trading down to get Culver all being said though. To those thinking Morant is going to drop – it’s not happening.

My main points about the lottery results:

1) No pre-emptive divorce (I kinda hoped for better, but #3 was ok). That’s good.
2) The KP trade now becomes a solid B+, with the Dallas pick conveying in 2021 and the other protected one in 2023. Good.
3) Fuck the Lakers.
4) Fuck the Celtics.
5) Actually, as Hubert already said, this year’s third pick is just perfect as a trade asset. RJ Barrett has a lot of reputation around the league (which means is/could be a coveted asset) but there’s no way that we’ll feel bad if/when we send him pack his bags goodbye.
6) There’a chance that we can really trade for Zion, as absurd as it is. If the Lakers or some other big market team jumped ahead of us, that’d be way more unlikely. Now we only have to work all the angles of a potential trade if Zion makes it known that he doesn’t want to play in NO. Barrett + unprotected Dallas 1st in 2021 + own pick in (your year of choice) could be enough to grab him, if Griffin has to save face. Unlikely but not impossible.
7) No chance in hell we’re drafting Cam Reddish. That wasn’t a guarantee from #4 on. Very good.
8) There’s an off chance Memphis doesn’t draft Morant and goes for Barrett. That would be stupendous.
9) Even if we keeping Barrett, if we nab Durant and spare pieces it’s a good roster. Token PG-Dotson-Barrett-KD-Mitch with a bench of DSJ/Frank (one has to go)-Trier-Knox-Morris-Kornet is a decent team in the East. If we get Kyrie or Kemba (and subtract the pieces needed) even better.
10) Fuck the Lakers.
11) The AD trade looks more likely. But I don’t want Mitch to go, so that’s kind of a bummer.

I feel a bit better after reading this

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2019/05/14/the-new-york-knicks-nab-the-no-3-overall-pick-in-the-2019-nba-draft/

I mean, if Culver and Brandon Clarke were there at #8 and #10

Are Atlanta desperate enough?

If we trade with Atlanta it puts Cam Reddish dangerously in play. So let’s not.

The whole thing eerily reminded me of the bingo auction in Get Out. I don’t mean to go all Debbie Downer, but the whole lottery/draft thing is really kinda fucked up.

That’s a very good comparison, hyperbole and all. It’s always been this gross, but this year’s spectacle sure shined a unique light on it.

I can’t fathom being one of the most highly sought after workers in your field, and yet having no say when it comes to your salary, living location, and co-workers for the next five years at a bare minimum.

I am, as all of you are, disappointed. It was a dream, but the odds were never in our favor. We just hoped to have the luck that New Orleans found. Oh well. On to new things. I agree with the fact that there were 3 tiers for the Knicks in this draft. Zion stood along in tier-1. Morant and Barrett were tier-2. Tier-3 might include a half dozen good players. We ended up in tier-2 which, any other year would be considered tier-1. Ja and RJ are both potential perennial all-stars. No, they aren’t the generational stud that folks predict Zion to be. Still, these are real stud players. Either kid would fit the bill for us.

In an interview with Mike Greenberg, Barrett called himself the best player in the draft and said that in one-on-one battles with Zion, the results were “split”. I’m hopeful that the gap between Zion and Morant/Barrett is narrower than the Zion hype makes us believe.

And I don’t want to make any trades. I’m ready to go to battle with Knox, KD, Kyrie, Barrett/Morant & Robinson. With 7 picks in the next 5 years, good things are coming our way. Let’s hope that Dallas sucks wind for the next few years.

Of course it’s gross. It’s always been gross.

You’re right, but something about old man Griffin being suddenly reinvigorated really drove it home for me this year, especially in light of that scene entering the public consciousness.

In an interview with Mike Greenberg, Barrett called himself the best player in the draft and said that in one-on-one battles with Zion, the results were “split”.

Lol nah

@32

Maybe he was talking about Fortnite

In an interview with Mike Greenberg, Barrett called himself the best player in the draft and said that in one-on-one battles with Zion, the results were “split”.

Pfft. Talk to me when you’re the best at 3-on-3.

Here’s a sobering QUERY after ignoring 4 or 4/5s:
– Freshman
– G or G/F or F
– Greater than 250 MP
– BPM > 7
– FT% < 68%

Perry should be fired if he doesn't:
(1) Trade RJ for Covington (presuming KD and Kyrie/kemba ready to sign)
(2) Offer RJ/Lance/DSJ/Frank/Knox/Mavs picks for AD

Here’s our new baseline, btw, factoring in a max for Durant.

x Noah – 6.43
1. Durant – 38.15
2. Barrett – 7.82
3. Lance – 7.11 ($1.0 guaranteed)
4. Frank – 4.85
5. Smith – 4.46
6. Knox – 4.38
7. Trier – 3.55
8. Dotson – 1.61
9. Mitchell – 1.55
10. Empty Penalty – .89 (You can put Kornet here, but I think he can be brought back on the min)
11. Empty Penalty – .89
12. Empty Penalty – .89

Total – 82.58
Cap – 109.00
Space – 26.42
Room – $4.49

It’s really easy to come up with ways to create the space for Kyrie and put together attractive trade options featuring Barrett and Lance’s nonguaranteed salary. The flexibility Perry will have this summer to trade Barrett for a $20-25mm player is tremendous!

And it’s not completely impossible that Durant and/or Kyrie would be willing shave a tiny bit salary, which opens many more possibilities. Kyrie, in particular, could be motivated to do a 1+1 like Durant did.

And I don’t want to make any trades. I’m ready to go to battle with Knox, KD, Kyrie, Barrett/Morant & Robinson. With 7 picks in the next 5 years, good things are coming our way. Let’s hope that Dallas sucks wind for the next few years.

You forgot to mention Ntilikina

What if NO says no to that deal? What if they insist on MRob?

There’s a part of me that would prefer to fizzle out with Mitch in tow than to win the whole shebang with Kyrie, KD and AD. I guess that’s the part that makes me root for the Knicks.

What if NO says no to that deal? What if they insist on MRob?

I wouldn’t include Mitch because I think there’s diminishing returns to AD when KD and Kyrie are on the team. I’d rather have Mitch and Covington than AD in that situation.

An interesting dilemma would be choosing between these 2 options (we keep Mitch in both):
(1) Covington in a deal for RJ/Knox/Lance
OR
(2) AD, if he agrees to extension, for RJ/DSJ/Frank/Knox/Trier/Dotson/Mavs picks/one of our 1sts/two 2nd round Charlotte picks.

. I like Covington, but he’s not a guy that you should base the heart of a GM’s eval on.

It’s weird, because Covington is most likely better than Barrett, but trading Barrett for Covington would be a criminal overpay.

I would do Barrett for Covington, Saric, and the Wolves pick this year, though. I don’t know if they’d be keen on pairing Wiggins 1.0 with Wiggins 2.0, though.

All you guys bashing Barrett should remember that up until the actual draft this blog was mostly in the camp that this was a three player draft.

I’m not sure this is true. The NBA generally thinks this is a 3 player draft. Knickerblogger is more split. He definitely has some tools and his high usage may explain his not so great defense, but he can’t score efficiently. So why is he taking more shots than Zion? His numbers and even his highlights say he’s not an elite athlete. Can’t shoot + average athlete is a bad combo.

Culver put up similar numbers. But his defensive numbers are better.

Clarke put up significantly better numbers. I don’t know why Clarke isn’t higher. Except I do and it’s because he wasn’t number 1 out of high school.

Bol Bol & Garland look good too.

There are multiple tiers to this draft. Zion and Ja take the first 2. To me Barrett is in the third tier with the above and I don’t think he’s at the top. I’d rather pick 5th, we still get a top player and we don’t have to dump one of our guys to sign 2 maxes.

I’d rather pick 5th,

That would be a reasonable stance if they didn’t air the rumor that they liked a lot Cam Reddish.

It’s always scary with the prospects who “just” need to learn how to shoot because it has become such a make or break skill in the league. If Barrett’s jump shot is broken I think it completely takes away his ceiling as a star level talent because I donn’t think he’s high enough level as an athlete to dominate without it. But the key to me is that it also makes it hard for him to be all that useful as a role player. Wings who can’t shoot are a tough piece and the higher level the games get the more those guys get squeezed out if defenses won’t guard them. Look at Harkless and Aminu in Portland, both of whom are really nice role players but are causing them problems in these playoffs because they’re just not great shooters. And both of those guys are bigger than Barrett (I realize he can, in theory, do many things they can’t as well).

Barrett is (or I guess I should say was) a really good playmaker. Yes, he only averaged 4.3 assists per game, but that’s a very good number in college basketball. He was 5th in the ACC in assists per game. If you pull back a bit he was in the 89th percentile in assist percentage out of all college players. Sure, some of that is probably tossing up lobs to maybe the best college player of all time, but he was also on the floor with a host of dudes who couldn’t shoot.

There were 15 forwards in the NBA who averaged more than than 4.3 assists per 36. Assuming RJ doesn’t take some massive leap in shooting he’s probably something like Carris LaVert early in his career, except much younger.

Clarke put up significantly better numbers. I don’t know why Clarke isn’t higher.

I’m all about Clarke, and I would easily trade Barrett for him at #5-7 with sweeteners coming back, maybe a future pick swap or 1st. But it’s true that he’s 3 years older than most of the freshman phenoms, so I see why his stock is lower. djphan is absolutely right that if he put up those numbers as a freshman, it’d be a different story, but the fact is that he did put up those numbers, which has to count for something. His team will probably get a lot of value out of him over the next four years, as opposed to the rest of the young guys who won’t start to be good until their first 4/$80M extension. I mean, the Lakers paid D-Russ to be a shitty player and locker room cancer, and now the Nets got like 4 months of excellent play out of him and likely will have to give him $100M to keep him. And we still don’t know if he’s legit. Contract year, baby!

I think it’s a waste of a pick to get him at #3 when he could be gotten at 6 or so, but he projects to be at the very least a serviceable player in the NBA. No way (IMO) that he’s going to turn into a guy who shoots .480 TS% and can’t rebound and can’t defend (especially in the era of small-ball perimeter players at the 4). He’s a safe pick with a very high floor. I am happy to get that kind of player at any point in the lottery, given how terrible the average one-and-done player has been over the last few years. I mean shit, do we all remember that Kris Dunn was the #5? Ingram #2? Josh Jackson, Ntilikina and Monk between 4 and 11?

If you can get a good starter who can defend 1 through (smallball) 5 through the beginning of his athletic prime at #6 while capitalizing on the Barrett hype train, why not?

All you guys bashing Barrett should remember that up until the actual draft this blog was mostly in the camp that this was a three player draft.

Here are some comments from the last week (all before the draft lottery) about Barrett (all different posters):

After the top 2 picks, there is not a single player that projects as a sure-fire star. Barrett, Clarke, Culver, Garland, Bol, Little, etc. all have high floors and low ceilings. Even Reddish is a consistent jumper away from being a very good rotation player or better. So at the end of the day,

and

1. Zion
2. Ja
3. Culver

and

3. Clarke
4. Garland
5. Hunter
6/7. Culver or RJ Barrett

and

There’s no way I’m even considering Bol with a top 5 pick. I’d rank the top 5 Zion, Morant, Barrett, Garland, Clarke. Barrett is the player I like the least, but I think he’d have the highest trade value.

In other words, I don’t believe that’s an accurate description of the blog vis a vis Barrett before the lottery. A bunch of people liked him and a bunch of people did not.

I could remember wrong. I don’t follow college basketball and mostly get my player impressions from here. I did just look up some RJ scouting reports. He reminds me a bit of Carmelo or Wiggins or other guys who score but not with modern efficiency, except that he scores at the rim and gets fouled more than most of them. That gives me really mixed feelings. I think how much potential he has may depend on his mental attitude, and that is really hard to tell from the scouting reports.

So Conley guaranteed his enormous 2020-21 contract by playing 70 games this season ($34.5M). That’s probably immovable, right? There’s a chance that Memphis takes Barrett, right?

seriously… don’t look at college efficiency numbers…. his numbers are weighed down by 8 attempts per 40 at a 30% clip… it’s very likely that barrett doesn’t shoot as many 3s in the pro’s…. and if it’s way lower then he might even be really good out of the gate….

I would say all you guys bashing Barrett should remember that he’s probably never going to play here.

Yeah, if we get KD and Kyrie I think not getting 1/2 makes it very unlikely whoever we pick ever suits up for us. If you have those two and an offer on the table for #3 and change that makes you clearly immediately better, can you really pass it up?

It’s very, very hard to see a team that has those two taking time to develop 19 year old RJ Barrett.

Clarke was roasting players as a freshman too. It’s not his fault NBA teams have an aversion to mid majors.

I like Clarke but I’m pretty sure we’re not trading back

I’d be totally fine with drafting RJ, but I think it’s really really likely that he will be traded so it barely matters.

Wonder whether Phoenix would send us their 2nd round pick for Frank? Probably not.

Wonder whether Phoenix would send us their 2nd round pick for Frank? Probably not.

Absolutely not. Teams should have understood by now that high second round picks have crazy value. Frank’s value right now is like, I don’t know, the 45th pick?

I like Clarke but I’m pretty sure we’re not trading back

I feel the same, given the impeding situation of the max free agents chase. You have to draft RJ or Morant because a) if you get two max guys you need a good trade chip, even if it’s not the best player you could get and b) if you don’t get two max guys you still need to make the safe pick for a lot of purposes (later trades, fan base, whatever).

Since the draft will be held before free agency (and anyway I’m pretty sure that by then – tampering rules permitting, wink wink – we’d know if Durant will come here) I don’t see any reason for the Knicks to trade down.

It’s hard to project who will fall in love with RJ and who won’t. It would be terrific if Kevin Pritchard loves the kid, because the Pacers could be in a precarious position with Oladipo only signed for two more years. Beal seems ideal, but maybe Washington doesn’t like RJ.

Let’s see this play out. All I know is Perry has a ton of flexibility. The problem may be the lack of targets.

if we’re not willing to include the 2021 mavs pick then i don’t see us doing better than a lakers deal that probably includes than 3 of the ball, hart, kuzma, ingram cohort + #4….

and trading #3 for beal wouldn’t be a good deal…. there needs to be some upside to the roster and it’s reasonable to expect barrett to be a solid starter from the jump….

barrett and mrob can take the torch from kd and kyrie…. and you add in reinforcements from the mavs picks + our own (if we don’t light them on fire like we did with the knox pick) and we have a good shot at being decent for the rest of the next decade….

Seriously, have you learned nothing on this blog? Not saying RJ can’t become great, but very little of that article (save a mention of his high free throw rate) is significant evidence of star potential.

Seriously, I’m trying to unlearn anything I was once foolish enough to consider correct as a result reading stats blogs. Stats have been monumentally important to the sport, but not the stats and all in one numbers many fans focus on. IMO, those are often misleading garbage because they missing things, misvaluing things, and can’t incorporate context and other factors.

IMO, for an 18 year old, Barrett is an above average play maker for 2/3, a good rebounder for 2/3, defends well enough now and has the body type to be able to switch 3 positions, gets to the FT line a lot, and is efficient around the basket. So basically the entire knock on him is that his FT% and 3P% are below average and that means he has a low TS%.

I’m totally horrified. I’ve never seen a 18 year get better at shooting.

You can find flaws with virtually every 18 year old player that gets drafted including Zion. What you are buying is his talent, athleticism, work ethic, basketball IQ, mental strength, body, and skills that you hope are above average for his age overall. Then you go to work developing the package.

This is a terrific talented young player who by all accounts is terrific young man. I don’t give a shit if he’s shooting 3s worse than Frank the 1st year. I’m worried about years 2, 3, 4, and 5. We got a very good prospect.

it’s reasonable to expect barrett to be a solid starter from the jump

Huh? A guy who shot 30% from the 3 in college is gonna be a solid starter next to KD and Kyrie? Do we need a “playmaker” next to them?

I will show you a subset of my previous query. Here are the 13 freshman tagged as G or G/F who put up a BPM > 7 and FT% less than 68 in more than 250 MP. All but one of them had a better 3FG% than RJ in college. RJ's a terrible shooter. Period. QUERY

What you are buying is his talent, athleticism, work ethic, basketball IQ, mental strength, body, and skills that you hope are above average for his age overall.

Sure, but RJ didn’t show many of those things at Duke.

Talent? That’s a nebulous term. RJ had a reputation coming out of high school that he was a polished player with strong ball skills, and I for one was kind of shocked at how this turned out not to be true. He looked to me like a straight line player who did not have ways to get easy buckets.

High basketball IQ and mental strength? Again, I didn’t see much of that. He had good assist numbers for a wing but he also turned the ball over a lot and took a lot of low-percentage heroball shots. Basically he created a lot of empty possessions, which is the number one enemy of winning basketball.

Strength and athleticism? Good,
but not elite for a high lottery prospect. Doesn’t have sick hops, isn’t lightning quick.

It seems to me like Barrett is still coasting a bit on his high school rep, and that people are still attributing qualities to him based on a HS scouting report that turned out to be flawed. The hype exceeds the results, and I think there is a very high chance his perceived value right now is higher than what his actual value will turn out to be.

Which is why he is a perfect trade chip.

Yeah, as someone who thought McCagnan should have been fired a while ago I have to wonder why you’d let the GM you don’t like draft for you one last time before you give him the sack.

I will show you a subset of my previous query. Here are the 13 freshman tagged as G or G/F who put up a BPM > 7 and FT% less than 68 in more than 250 MP. All but one of them had a better 3FG% than RJ in college. RJ’s a terrible shooter. Period. QUERY

Wasn’t he a forward at Duke?

i think it’s absolutely reasonable to expect barrett to be a solid starter…. he’s a good prospect and good prospects generally play pretty well right away…. maybe not allstar caliber but a ws48 >0.075 is not hard to attain for guys as good as barrett….

he might not… and if you don’t have a high opinion of him to start with then you probably think he’ll suck…. but guys who have been worse than barrett have routinely performed up to starter level quality from the get go….

ppl shit on jayson tatum coming out on this board…. and im seeing a lot of those guys going back to that poisoned well to shit on barrett… and i’m saying… maybe you should re-think your assumptions on what prospects and rookies do…

if you use a bpm > 6 you get the list i have further up the thread….. don’t draw too many hard conclusions from a narrow dataset….

Barrett is (or I guess I should say was) a really good playmaker. Yes, he only averaged 4.3 assists per game, but that’s a very good number in college basketball. He was 5th in the ACC in assists per game. If you pull back a bit he was in the 89th percentile in assist percentage out of all college players. Sure, some of that is probably tossing up lobs to maybe the best college player of all time, but he was also on the floor with a host of dudes who couldn’t shoot.

There were 15 forwards in the NBA who averaged more than than 4.3 assists per 36. Assuming RJ doesn’t take some massive leap in shooting he’s probably something like Carris LaVert early in his career, except much younger.

His playmaking and ability to get to the FT line are both really, really nice attributes but I worry that a lack of shooting (if indeed he turns out to be not a good shooter at the next level) really causes those attributes to play down. LeVert is a an interesting comp but Brooklyn runs a very democratic offense – perfect for that kind of secondary ball handler/slasher. I worry about both whether he’d be the same in other types of offenses, and also about what the growth trajectory for that kind of player is. He needs the shooting to grow into a primary ball handler or to increase his off the ball potential. I’d love to see the Knicks run a Brooklyn-esque offense but I can’t see if with our current coaching staff, nor with the FAs we’ve been linked with. If he’s doing a lot of standing around on the wing the problems are only exacerbated.

I don’t think anyone on this board has been excited at any point about getting RJ Barrett. Unless it’s as a trade chip. Wiggins 2.0 is right.

This comparison has been out there and I just don’t agree. Everything about Wiggins has been about how he’s not competitive, doesn’t work, and is willing to disappear into the background. Everything about RJ is how hyper competitive he is and how great his work ethic is.

I think being hypercompetitive is an actual skill. The reason Westbrook is great is because while he has supreme athleticism, plenty of dudes have great athleticism (ie. Wiggins) but don’t have that drive to get every ball and compete to the last millisecond. I know this is difficult to quantify, but RJ strikes me as a guy who likes to be in the middle of everything — this is a good thing. Wiggins disappears for games at a time.

We may be just a little harsh with the Barrett assessments. It’s not like he’s Ntilikina/Josh Jackson level bad on offense. He has proven he can score and be a secondary playmaker. And although his game is reminiscent of Melo type inefficiency, he does look to pass. He’s certainly got some growing to do, but I can see why some pundits think he may be the best all around player in the draft. At 3 and sans Zion & Ja, you hafta pick him- unless a winning trade down option is there. I LOVE Clarke, and I’m not so sold on Culver, but I can’t deny they would be great fits with the current projection for free agency. However, if we didn’t have all this cap space, I’d be ecstatic to pick 3rd in this year’s draft.

Barrett’s a hard guy to project. He, by all accounts, has the work ethic and hoops IQ to mesh with his scoring and playmaking talents- but we were also proven very wrong to bet on Ntilikina’s work ethic and hoops IQ to drive him towards quicker improvement. Granted, Barrett’s floor is waaaaayyyyyyyyy higher than Ntilikina’s, but we’re still banking on his ability to improve upon his weaknesses which seem to be shooting and shot selection.

I’ll tell ya this much though, I will riot..all by myself..if we select Garland, Culver, Bol, or Reddish at 3

I was traveling yesterday when all this hit so didn’t have a chance to weigh in.
Not surprised the Knicks didn’t hit the Zion jackpot that was too much luck to expect with this franchise.

Picking third is not ideal, but it could be a lot worse, I was bracing for the fall to #5. From what I saw of Barrett, the hype seemed to outweigh the reality. He was ok, not great in my opinion. Handles the ball well, shoots a lot ( which was annoying with Zion on his team), and looks stiff in his movements. On the bright side he doesn’t turn 19 until later this year so there is a chance he’ll improve, especially with the Knicks superlative developmental staff ( not really).

The thing that pissed me off more than anything was the Lakers, moving up from 11 to 4. With a 2.8 % chance of that happening, just of course it happened. The Knicks had a 14 % chance for the #1 pick, but nooooo, we have to suffer more. LA is the luckiest fucking team in the history of team sports. I hope they go down in a LeBron induced flaming wreck, but more likely they’ll get AD and some other good player and be in the WCF next year.

Boston and the Mavs getting screwed was some good news at least.

@99
It might be a slight stretch to call KD & Kyrie leaders lol

There’s a real chance Memphis takes Barrett, right?

Maybe if they think he could be the primary ball handler in the offense.

Oh, you’re right. KAWHI LEONARD (.250 3pt% in college) definitely couldn’t start next to those guys. Your arbitrary cherry-picking means nothing.

Uh you realize you’re the one who’s cherry picking, right?

if you use a bpm > 6 you get the list i have further up the thread….. don’t draw too many hard conclusions from a narrow dataset….

Let’s take BPM out of the selection criteria and make the query all freshman who played more than 250 minutes and posted a FT% less than 68 and 3FG% < 32 (sorted by bpm). Does this long list inspire any confidence? QUERY

I don’t understand why a few people are so sure this guy’s a stud when the stats suggest a low probability of success. I’d be more optimistic if his steal % or block % were not so anemic. He looks like a straight line driver who’s got a bit of court vision and not much else.

Because it really is fucked that talented children have to sit there and watch some ping pong balls determine their future.

Imagine campus recruiting day being like that. “Hey, kid, I know you really want to work for Goldman Sachs, and they’re prepared to offer you $500k to start, but here’s the thing: it was determined in the back room that you’re going to have to work for a paper company instead. Good luck. You can change careers in 7 years. Maybe 6 if you’re willing to be an asshole and let everyone drag your name thru the mud.”

I don’t really agree with this line of thinking (and several people have endorsed it in this thread, including Brian). Consider:

1. These guys are going into a collectively bargained league. Their negotiating power and assistance is far, far, far higher than the average 19 year old, who has absolutely no one negotiating on their behalf.
2. The blame, to the extent that there is blame, should primarily rest on the the player’s union. They are (as is common in many organizations and groups) giving young employees the shaft to favor veterans. They could easily argue for many more protections for rookies, but they don’t because it would take money from the vets.
3. Goldman Sachs vs a paper company? A more apt comparison is Goldman Sachs at $5M in New York or BofA at $4.9M in Charlotte. Boohoo. People move across the world for 1% of that amount. And most US college grads are making $30-50k at-will, maybe being fortunate enough to get health insurance.
4. These rookies are all getting guaranteed contracts that make them multi-millionaires. Most first rounders will receive more money by around the time they can legally drink than the average American (forget about the rest of the world!) makes in a lifetime. These young men are among the most privileged people on the planet from this point on. For this reason the comparison to Get Out slave/body theft auctions is really quite preposterous.

I’d do a #3 and others for Beal if Mitchell was not included. Beal is a slightly better younger more well rounded C.J. McCollum. If he gets his 3pt shooting back up as he continues to improve his other areas going into his prime years he would become a great player.

1. These guys are going into a collectively bargained league. Their negotiating power and assistance is far, far, far higher than the average 19 year old, who has absolutely no one negotiating on their behalf.

This is objectively true, but their skills are far more valuable than the average 19-year-old’s.

2. The blame, to the extent that there is blame, should primarily rest on the the player’s union. They are (as is common in many organizations and groups) giving young employees the shaft to favor veterans. They could easily argue for many more protections for rookies, but they don’t because it would take money from the vets.

Agreed, but the outcome is still unfairness.

3. Goldman Sachs vs a paper company? A more apt comparison is Goldman Sachs at $5M in New York or BofA at $4.9M in Charlotte. Boohoo. People move across the world for 1% of that amount. And most US college grads are making $30-50k at-will, maybe being fortunate enough to get health insurance.

It’s still involuntary. Despite all of the privilege around banking recruitment, applicants are still allowed to choose exactly for whom they work. The only other American enterprises that eliminate prospective-employee choice (AFAIK) are the military and certain law enforcement jobs (like the FBI). Entertainer-athletes shouldn’t be subject to that kind of conscription, no matter the salary.

For this reason the comparison to Get Out slave/body theft auctions is really quite preposterous.

Having a bunch of billionaire white men (whose wealth is the end-result of 300-plus years of systemic and institutional exploitation) holding a lottery to decide the labor of black bodies? Is it really that preposterous?

This argument has been around for a long time, and it has teeth.

I’m more concerned that he’s going to be mediocre and get paid like a star.

That was our Porzingis issue, and I feel like this administration dealt with him correctly, so who knows?

It’s just funny that someone said months ago that RJ was this team’s destiny, and it looks like now it’s actually happening.

judging by 2 or 3 factors is cherrypicking…. and it is terrible analysis….

this is you:
a)’if he’s a bad shooter then he won’t succeed’… that’s false…. pretty obvious why…
b)’his bad ft shooting means he won’t be a good shooter’… that’s false… i showed why…
c)’his bad ft shooting and bad 3p shooting means he won’t be a good shooter because look at all these guys who are terrible…. ‘ …. again false… because you’re also looking at all the terrible shooters in college who never had nba careers…. by default that list is going to be filled with terrible players… you filter the list to folks who actually got drafted and you can see why this is false…

you’re making bad assumptions to reach a bad conclusion… it’s weak…

djphan, of course his shooting might improve but you definitely didn’t show why.

oladipo’s shitty freshman ft year was on like 80 attempts. ditto for kcp and tj. barrett shot 66.5% on 224 attempts, a different universe of sample size. and ingram is a bad example because he hasn’t actually shown he isn’t a problematic shooter. he’s been a terrible nba ft shooter so far. derozan might be a better example, but even that is saying very little. some guys improve but college ft shooting on more than 150 attempts is, on average, informative. it’s a yellow flag.

and i never contended otherwise…i said barret’s shooting is a concern… but this guy is saying he definitely won’t improve or a ‘low probability’…. that is a bad conclusion…..

if you don’t like the current crop… let’s go back to the 2000 group of nba’ers….

dwyane wade
jason richardson
andre iguodala
jason kidd
grant hill
ron artest
trevor ariza

case closed…

Having a bunch of billionaire white men (whose wealth is the end-result of 300-plus years of systemic and institutional exploitation) holding a lottery to decide the labor of black bodies? Is it really that preposterous?

Yes!!! In Get Out they essentially killed the people!! You’re comparing that to 5 months a year in a situation so luxurious it’s hard to fathom. And it wasn’t “decided by billionaires”, but rather agreed to by the billionaires and the union that represents the players. This is a far better negotiating process than almost any employee gets.

One final thing that’s important to consider: the rules may ultimately be in the players’ best interests. Would small market teams capitulate if the best rookies could choose their destinations? Might some teams even just fold if they have no chance of being competitive? Might basketball be less popular nation-wide if parity got even worse? Hard to say, but it is quite plausible that this could be detrimental to league popularity, and hence revenue, and hence player incomes. Would the players be willing to accept a say 10-15% paycut to have total free agency upon entry to the league? Maybe, maybe not. I don’t think this is even so clearly a complete negative for the players though.

Isn’t it usually the case with every union, that they negotiate on behalf of their members not future members.?

There’s no way I’d trade the 3rd pick for Covington. He’s coming off of knee surgery (he missed almost 50 games last year) and is at the age where you might expect to see some defensive drop-off anyway. Even the third pick for Covington + 11 might be selling low for the Knicks depending on who’s left on the board.

Isn’t it usually the case with every union, that they negotiate on behalf of their members not future members.?

My wife teaches for LAUSD and they have a strong union. One of the things the district always tries to do when it comes time to negotiate is to grandfather in benefits for current employees but not guarantee them for future employees, and LAUSD always stands firm on this. They realize they will need more members in the future in order to survive.

There’s no way I’d trade the 3rd pick for Covington.

If I can’t get a guy like Beal (and yes, Jowles, we only want Beal as support to Kyrie and KD), I would trade Barrett for Covington, Saric, and the 11 pick. I think that’s fair value.

I don’t know if Minnesota would want two Andrew Wiggins, though.

I would trade the 3rd pick for Covington, Saric and the 11th for sure, obviously if we know we’re getting the stars in free agency. I’m a fan of Saric, I think he could flourish in the right team, and Covington is solid enough to be a very good 5th starter on a team, even though it would be a bit of an awkward fit with him at the 2 next to Durant and Saric at the forward spots. But I have no idea what Minnesota is doing and I don’t think they do either.

My wife teaches for LAUSD and they have a strong union. One of the things the district always tries to do when it comes time to negotiate is to grandfather in benefits for current employees but not guarantee them for future employees, and LAUSD always stands firm on this. They realize they will need more members in the future in order to survive.

That’s a pretty good and farsighted union. Not being a union person leaves me to rely on anecdotes and such. The flip if you will might be the retired NFL players and I think health insurance. Anyway back to basketball

and i never contended otherwise…i said barret’s shooting is a concern… but this guy is saying he definitely won’t improve or a ‘low probability’…. that is a bad conclusion…..

okay, maybe i missed the context if you were just shooting down someone who said he definitely won’t improve. but i don’t think it’s cherry picking to worry about rj’s FT% and low steal numbers. these are far from the whole story, but they are, on average, informative. and when you are picking a wing 3rd in the draft you damn well should be worried if those numbers are frowning at you.

there’s a lot not to like about rj. he can’t finish right. he is fast, athletic and strong, but he doesn’t have anything like derozan’s silky fluidity. he has good vision when he’s on the perimeter, but he’s a bad decision maker when driving, which resulted in way too many turnovers and bad shots for a guy with zion on his team. he is supposed to be a good defender, and he looks like a good defender at the combine, but did he actually look like a good defender on the court? not to me.

he’s still a legit prospect and he does look like an nba player. but for a #3 pick there’s a lot to be concerned about. i think i’m a lot less grateful than 90% of this board that we landed 3rd.

What a day for Jets fans. I wanted Mac fired long ago, but the timing and all the drama around it shows how worse the Jets are run these days than the Knicks.

I still don’t want Kyrie Irving here. KD, fine. Anyway he’ll come with someone else, but not at a max?

His biggest flaw was playing on the Duke team with Zion and Cam. Did he have to defer to them?

I don’t know what Duke team you watched but it definitely wasn’t this year’s. Barrett dominated the ball at Duke. He had a usage of 32 compared to 28 and 25 for Zion and Cam. Barrett also took over 18 FGA/game compared to 13 and 12 for Zion and Cam.

God, this is annoying AF, though. This guy has won 4 out of the 5 lotteries he’s been in, and now he thinks he’s a god:

Griffin echoed that during a brief chat with ESPN.com after the televised reveal. “We can be Oklahoma City with Paul George,” he said. “We can hold onto [Davis] and let him see what we really are. [Winning the lottery] changes how quickly he can buy into it. It gets us closer. Every day, maybe he believes a little more. As much as elite talent likes to play with elite talent, I can’t imagine any elite player in his prime looking at our situation and saying to himself, ‘There’s a better grouping to play for’ than ours.”

I really, really hope this is how it plays out:

1. Davis sticks to his guns.
2. Zion pulls an Elway/Eli and says “trade me, I’ll never play for you.”

It’s what the league deserves for shoving this shit down the throat of its players and fans.

that dude was using a query filtering for college players who shoot less than a certain % from 3p and the line…. and based off of it returning very few nba ‘successes’…. barrett’s going to be bad…. that is an unfathomably bad way to look at it….

yes he’s not a great shooter… his defensive numbers are on the low side…. he might be the SF version of jahlil okafor…. those are risks… but there are risks with any draft pick…. i like culver better… i have been on record the whole year that he’s been better than barrett…. but that does not mean barrett’s chopped liver either….

you put barrett’s back into any other draft… and he’s very likely a top 5 pick in any one of them… and he is a slightly better prospect than kawhi or pierce or george or jefferson or iguodala was…. i realize that most can’t be happy with that… but those are solid players… and it’s not too hard to imagine barrett realizing his potential…. this isn’t kevin knox.. or harrison barnes…. or andrew wiggins… and if you keep that perspective you should be pretty happy with him…

There was a moment last night… after Chicago, Phoenix, and Cleveland all got shown… and they showed all 4 teams and we all realized that the odds were in our favor… for a couple of minutes, it felt incredible, like it was finally going to happen.

yep, i was even stupid enough to do the math during the commercial. if you assume zion is worth 10X, Ja 3X, RJ 2X and the 4th pick X (highly debatable to say the least), our equity during the top four commercial break was: 50% * 10X = 5X + ~32% * 3X = .96X + ~15% X 2X = .3X + 3% * X = .03X = 6.29X. But we walked out with 2X. boo.

But Beal as your third best player would be a damn good outcome. He had an outstanding season, 27-7-7 is nothing to sneeze at.

What? More like 25-5-5, although I agree it would be a great 3rd star if we keep Robinson.

EDIT: The list of players with 27-7-7 is just Westbrook, Lebron, Jordan, Harden, Bird, Havlicek and Robertson, of course nothing to sneeze at!

My bad, for Beal it’s actually 26-6-5, with a TS% of .581. Still pretty damn good, and an above average defender also.

Hubert, I want to believe. But I dunno. Until I see the KD/Kyrie press conferences I’m assuming Lucy is going to pull the football away again.

Funny you mention that, because yesterday I felt like Linus foolishly expecting the arrival of the Great Pumpkin.

Tacko’s standing reach is 7 1/2 inches longer than Boban’s.

Barrett’s perceived value appears to be higher than his projected value. I trust the Knicks FO to exploit that opportunity.

Barrett’s perceived value appears to be higher than his projected value. I trust the Knicks FO to exploit that opportunity.

Yeah, I feel exactly the same. Well, except the part about how you “trust” the Knicks FO to exploit the opportunity. I kind of expect them to fuck it up. But that’s cynical old JK47 for you

maybe i’m naive, but, it seems the days of rampant tanking could be past…

This seems to be the take today. But consider:

the teams that won two more games than us fell all the way to 5 & 6. The team with the 4th worst record is picking 7th. There’s going to be a lot of teams who will think “I better secure the worst record so I’m guaranteed not to fall further than 5.”

Also, New Orleans, Memphis, and LA all shut it down and tanked hard down the stretch. That worked out well.

We probably will never see another Process, though. It’s no longer as logical. That’s really all the league ever wanted. They didn’t like being shown up for their stupid system. That is why I hope Zion refuses to play for New Orleans and AD demands a trade. Shove it up their ass.

My thoughts last night, best summed up in Haiku:

Damn it Damn it Fuck
Fuck Damn it damn it Fuck Fuck
Damn it. Thanks, Patrick

Grizzlies are reportedly “locked in on” Ja Morant.

https://twitter.com/draftexpress/status/1128799179684368385?s=21

There goes that sliver of hope.

If anyone can control the trajectory of his career from day one – it is Zion. The Eli move is definitely on the table.

@161

Yeah like as a human being, I’d like to see Zion go back to school if he doesn’t want to go to NO. But it would probably be bad for the Knicks.

It puts Reddish back into play lol

My biggest thing about winning the lottery is drafting Zion would’ve made this an A+ offseason regardless of what happened during free agency. With Zion the front office could’ve stayed patient if they missed out on KD and sold the future with Zion and the draft picks and everybody, including the media, would’ve been on board. The future just cause of Zion would’ve been bright.

But now I fear if they miss out on KD they will feel compelled to do something stupid cause just drafting Barrett and not signing anybody significant they would be criticized for having an awful offseason and how tanking backfired. I feel like drafting Zion would’ve basically been a safety net that allowed the front office to be patient and truly stick to rebuilding and that might not be the case anymore.

You know, if Zion really wants to come to the Knicks that badly, I say more power to him. By not signing with an agent he gave himself some serious leverage.

Zion has to withdraw from the draft by May 29th to retain his college eligibility. He can withdraw later (June 10th) but wouldn’t be able to return to Duke. If he told NO tomorrow that the only team he would play for is the Knicks or else he’d go back to school then the Knicks would have a couple of weeks to work out a deal to swap picks. What would you be willing to give up to swap three for one? My guess is it’d take Mitch + the unprotected Mavs pick and that’s a pretty steep price.

Draft pcks are exciting, i hope we dont deal our future picks.
Reg RJ Barret, he is a consensus number 1 before the season started. May i know why his stock drop to number 3?

@169

Man, it would be very difficult to part with Mitch, but if it’s the 3rd plus Mitch, Knox and one of the Dallas picks I would do it. I’d rather trade literally everyone else plus those picks and keep Mitch, but if New Orleans won’t budge I’d probably do it.

I love Mitch to death but he’s a guy who probably tops out as the 3rd, or maaaybe 2nd best player in a very good team. Zion can be the number 1 guy.

If Zion went back to school, even knowing it could hurt the Knicks, I would be fucking thrilled. Good for him. Please do it. Please let’s see AD and Zion bend the Pelicans over. This is a team that only exists so owners could get an expansion fee and has already wasted 12 hall of fame years from Chris Paul and Anthony Davis. Please fuck them over.

And no fucking way do you give up Mitch if Zion puts New Orleans in a vice grip. You offer Barrett, Frank, and Dallas’ unprotected pick. That’s it. Because that’s more than they’ll get if he goes back to duke.

I think I want to see David Griffin have to deal with trading the #1 pick and AD bc both of them refuse to play in New Orleans more than I want to see the Knicks get RJ Barrett over Darius Garland.

Zion refusing to play for anyone would be bad for the league. Even if it helps us, I hope it doesn’t happen. I don’t want to win that way.

The fact is, he’s already more marketable than most NBA players already. Why go back to school when you could go play in a massive market for a year? Shanghai, Beijing, Istanbul… or Madrid or Rome if he wants to do a euro year.

It’d be interesting to see what would happen if he withdrew from the draft and then in September tried to sign overseas- I’m guessing the NBA would put pressure on the China/Euro leagues not to sign him (and I’m sure neither would want to cross the NBA- not even for Zion) if there’s not some sort of rule to prevent it already.

It’d be interesting to see what would happen if he withdrew from the draft and then in September tried to sign overseas- I’m guessing the NBA would put pressure on the China/Euro leagues not to sign him (and I’m sure neither would want to cross the NBA- not even for Zion) if there’s not some sort of rule to prevent it already.

I would imagine he just goes back to Duke and let’s Nike keep paying his grandmother or however it works there.

Zion refusing to play for anyone would be bad for the league. Even if it helps us, I hope it doesn’t happen. I don’t want to win that way.

You think any Broncos or Giants felt even a smidge of regret when Elway and Eli won them Super Bowls?

Also, who do you mean by the league? The cartel of 30 owners? They’d be mad, sure. But is it really bad for the people who watch the league? You know what was bad for the league? Wasting 12 years of Chris Paul and Anthony Davis in New Orleans. Getting Zion to a real team – and I don’t even care if it’s us, frankly, just get him out of New Orleans – is *great* for the league.