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Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Knicks Morning News (2017.09.21)

  • [NYTimes] On Pro Basketball: LeBron James’s Future May Depend on Nets’ Success or Failure
    (Wednesday, September 20, 2017 9:59:22 PM)

    The more Brooklyn loses, the better it is for Cleveland, which holds the Nets’ first-round pick in 2018 and hopes it might persuade James to stay put.

  • [NYTimes] Kevin Durant Apologizes for Twitter Comments About Thunder
    (Wednesday, September 20, 2017 1:14:34 PM)

    The Golden State Warriors star spouted off about his old team, and denied he had intended to do so from an anonymous account.

  • [NYPost] Porzingis returning to Knicks but still thinking about Euro tourney
    (Wednesday, September 20, 2017 11:52:18 PM)

    Kristaps Porzingis has told confidants his goal is to win a gold medal for Latvia at the European Championships. As he flies back to New York this weekend for his third Knicks training camp after falling short of that goal eight days ago in the tournament’s quarterfinals, Porzingis sounds like a player on a basketball…

  • [NYPost] New Knick looking to score new NYC pad
    (Wednesday, September 20, 2017 6:36:06 PM)

    New York Knicks forward Michael Beasley, who was most recently with the Milwaukee Bucks, is apparently moving to the city with his girlfriend — professional organizer Alyse Morgan — and they’ve already started house hunting. One home they toured was a penthouse duplex at 135 W. 52nd St. that’s on the market for $7.3 million….

  • [NYDN] Why Jarrett Jack would be a good Knicks mentor to Frank Ntilikina
    (Wednesday, September 20, 2017 9:54:30 PM)

    The education of Frank Ntilikina could benefit from a teammate who executives believe will make a great coach.

  • [NYDN] Knicks need Carmelo Anthony gone and Kristaps Porzingis here
    (Wednesday, September 20, 2017 1:46:37 PM)

    Barring an 11th-hour deal, Carmelo Anthony will remain with the Knicks next week when the team holds their annual media day.

  • [NYDN] ESPN rankings don’t match Michael Beasley’s confidence in Knicks
    (Wednesday, September 20, 2017 9:03:30 AM)

    Knicks forward Michael Beasley said this week that his new team can be a No. 5 or No. 6 team in the Eastern Conference this season.

  • 95 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2017.09.21)

    1. Z-man

      There is certainly enough game film on Ntilikina to develop a sense of his game. There is also Schmitz’s excellent video breakdown of strengths and weaknesses. My skepticism about him comes largely from watching these videos and reading analytical articles about his game, as well as his statistical profile. There is more than enough info to make an informed judgment.

      After doing my own personal analysis of the above, I came to the following tentative conclusions: First and foremost, he does not play like a PG and nothing in his stint with Strasbourg suggests that he can or should be a PG in the NBA. Second, while he is exceptionally long for a guard, he isn’t particularly fast or explosive as an athlete. His offensive game (especially ball skills) looks very raw and I don’t see anywhere near the polish that would make me feel confident that he will develop into an asset on the offensive end anytime soon (meaning 3-5 years) if ever. He seemed very passive and easy to keep out on the perimeter. His only post move against smaller players is a fadeaway jumper. He has zero off the dribble or iso game compared to DSjr, Monk or even Mitchell.

      I don’t care that much about the level of competition or team success. Steph Curry and Kenneth Faried are two examples of guys who excelled against vastly inferior competition and went on to do the same in the NBA. Many young Euros do well over there but their game never translates to the NBA.

      I sure hope that I’m dead wrong about him. Everyone here knows that I am a lifelong fan who will root hard for him from day one, as I do for every Knicks player. But my guess right now is that Damyean Dotson will be the better player (possibly on both ends) for at least the next 3 years.

    2. Totes McGoats Makes 18mil For 14ppg

      Forgot to mention this a couple days ago, but I really like this year’s alternate uni. I’ve always been a little partial to the white jersey anyway because it’s easier to match other clothes with. This year’s alternate os dope- I hope they use em more than a few times this season. Every sunday home game would be nice.

    3. Frank

      Isn’t it crazy how Barnes went from one of the greatest teams of all-time to one of the worst teams in the league this year, and with the exception of shooting volume, his stats stayed pretty much at his career averages?

      It’s so weird… it’s like… it’s like basketball players… it’s like… it’s like they are responsible for their own production… so weird…

      I couldn’t let this go from yesterday’s thread.

      Superficially, Barnes’s box score stats/percentages were about the same, except that he lost 20 points in TS while his usage went way up, his ORtg dropped from 114 to 106, DRtg increased from 107 to 111, BPM went from -0.2 to -1.9, VORP dropped from +0.9 to +0.1. His WS/48 dropped from .116 to .078. His WP48 dropped from .042 (still bad) to -0.29 (super horrible). So basically, he rebounded at the same rate, assisted at about the same rate, but had a higher usage and lower TS now that he was a primary option and teams wouldn’t just leave him alone like they did in GS. Or in other words, exactly what we’ve all been saying.

      Funny how players are responsible for their own production except when they play with really good players and then suddenly they’re not. Like how GS’s players have a TS% 7.3 points better with Curry than without, or when Lebron leaves the Cavs for the Heat and suddenly no one can make a shot.

    4. ILoveHatetheKnicks

      @1 – Since you value Mike Schmitz’s analysis so much, perhaps your opinion already took into consideration his breakdown of Frank’s performance @ Basketball Without Borders. He doesn’t appear as down on him as you are with respect to his point guard skills in that video.

      Everyone is aware he played a different role with his French pro team. Whether or not that’s a reflection of the team not wanting him to get exposed because of his irredeemable suck-itude at being a point, or a function of the role he was asked to play regardless of his ability and talent level, we will find out eventually.

      I could be wrong but I get the impression when I read your posts on Frank you’re more interested in being right about his skillset, despite your assertion that you’re rooting for him.

    5. Z-man

      I could be wrong but I get the impression when I read your posts on Frank you’re more interested in being right about his skillset, despite your assertion that you’re rooting for him.

      This could be the single stupidest comment ever posted on KB. But not unexpected from someone whose name implies that he can’t figure out whether he himself loves or hates the Knicks.

    6. ILoveHatetheKnicks

      LoL. A bit hyperbolic but I guess I could have phrased it better. So I’ll re-phrase. I don’t believe you are rooting for him like you claim you are. I think you are hoping he doesn’t pan out, because you’re more interested in being right.

    7. Z-man

      But seriously, I get that Strasbourg had him playing off the ball, but that is irrelevent to me. I am judging him based on what I saw when he had the ball and tried to do something with it. He demonstrated that he’s a pretty good spot-up shooter, decent release, etc. He also demonstrated that when he decides to put the ball on the floor and penetrate, he is not very good at it. Or that when he decides to pass, he is at best OK at it (poor asst/to ratio). Or when it comes to finishing at the rim, he was not good. When I watch his game film, I don’t see George Hill, I see Justin Holiday.

      He seems like a smart kid with a great character and work ethic. If he develops into a great defensive guard with reasonable offensive skills, with the overall impact of say, Avery Bradley (different player but similarly skewed towards defense) I’d be pleasantly surprised.

    8. mase

      What is the concern here, he is not a pure pg, big deal. And I’m not buying the argument he is not athletic freak either. I watched his footage and drills and he is very fast and very long and probably a project. I’d like to see him on the break before I put any judgement out there but it’s his defense we should all be watching because that is the most glaring need for us from our guards which I think he will be easily the best we have. The kid is 19 and the next Kwahi at the guard spot. That’s all I have to say right now.

    9. Donnie Walsh

      Last 10 seasons they’ve [macericks] missed the playoffs twice, lost 6 times in the first round, once in the second round, and won an NBA title. Obviously, that’s light years better than the Knicks, but they’ve generally just been pretty good.

      Over the past 10 seasons the Maverick have a .599% winning percentage, 2nd best in the league behind only the Spurs. Couple that with their championship, and I’d say that if that is just “generally pretty good”, then your bar for success is unreasonably high and you’d make a terrible GM(!).

    10. Cock Jowles, #1 Tanking Denialist

      So basically, he rebounded at the same rate, assisted at about the same rate, but had a higher usage and lower TS now that he was a primary option and teams wouldn’t just leave him alone like they did in GS. Or in other words, exactly what we’ve all been saying.

      You can increase your usage by ~50% and your TS% drops by two hundredths of a point? That’s what we’ve all been saying? Are you fucking kidding me, Frank?

      Don’t bring that bullshit revisionism up in here. And don’t throw Steph Fucking Curry out as proof that basketball players affect each other on the court. You’re talking about the guy who put up the most dominant offensive season in the modern era. Really? Fucking insulting.

    11. Z-man

      Kawhi is a once-in-a-generation defender at his size, maybe top 2-3 of all time, and is also one of the best offensive players in the NBA. He is the exception to just about every rule of expected player development. I’d need just a bit a bit more evidence before even evoking his name as a comparison. But if he were even a poor man’s Kawhi, that would be pretty cool.

    12. kevin5318

      Frank is a risk in that he’ll need to develop some burst once he gets some more strength in his legs. There’s no guarantee that will happen so I can settle for a taller Pat Beverley.

    13. mase

      Kwahi is a big stretch but one can dream… If he can hit open threes and play lockdown defense he is halfway there though

    14. ptmilo

      So the new lottery proposal looks like it worsens 1-5, leaves 11-14 mostly unchanged, and substantially increases the benefit of being 7-10 (you can now get into the top 5 via the lottery and your overall probability of getting the top picks from these spots improve). They are trying to thread the needle by discouraging tanking at the bottom without encouraging tanking right out of the playoffs. Even though any solution along these lines will be problematic, this seems like a bigger mistake than necessary.

      The playoffs are still a marginal benefit to teams. They generate revenue and probably fan/media goodwill. The late lottery teams are the those marginally less likely to tank. What you have now is a big incentive to go from being a marginal playoff team to a 7-10 seed. If I ran a team it would mean throwing in the towel earlier, and giving away short term players for $ relief/2nd round picks at the trade deadline. If you’re in Jan/Feb and look like you might be an 8-14 seed with maybe a 20-30% chance of making the playoffs, the new incentives are clear. In the NBA, the fact is that this group is often large. You commonly have situations with a plurality of lowish probability playoff teams bunched together, all now with a much greater incentive to race down from the top of the lottery. This would reduce playoff races and playoff races are fun. The smarter move would have been to distribute the flattening more evenly. The 11-14 seed would still have a very low chance of getting a top pick. Instead you have the teams with less playoff incentive (bc they are less likely to make it) getting an uneven bump in lottery position.

    15. bobneptune

      I take Z man at face value that he is rooting for Frank but that isn’t the issue. I think he’d have to admit the amount of film he has seen is limited and it all was with an organization that had a different idea on how to deploy him. I come back to the notion that Phil and Gaines did a pretty outstanding job of drafting and they were completely sold on him. He was their guy all along in that range of picks and that stands for more to me than anything else.

      The guy shows outstanding prowess from 3 for an 18 year old and may be (has a better chance than most in this draft) to be an elite defender. Those two skills alone translate well and if he never morphs into Westbrook or Clyde Drexler penetrator offensively makes him have a pretty formidable basement as a player.

    16. Frank

      Don’t bring that bullshit revisionism up in here. And don’t throw Steph Fucking Curry out as proof that basketball players affect each other on the court. You’re talking about the guy who put up the most dominant offensive season in the modern era. Really? Fucking insulting.

      The non-WoW crowd has always said that there are shot creators and people who live off the shot creators (a continuum, not binary possibilities). Curry is perhaps the most extreme of those examples, but the extremes prove the point that it is a real phenomenon, and that lesser players than Curry probably have lesser (but still real) effects. Lebron is the same. Or Chris Paul.

      Now there will always be some guys whose production stays the same no matter who is on the floor with them, but that doesn’t disprove the idea that some guys need other guys to create openings for them.

      Some stats will probably remain the same – like rebounding (although outlier-creators like Robin Lopez exist), steals, etc. But I can’t believe we still have to argue that playing on the court with Chris Paul makes you a better offensive player than if, say, Derrick Rose is your point guard.

    17. johnno

      “You can increase your usage by ~50% and your TS% drops by two hundredths of a point? That’s what we’ve all been saying? Are you fucking kidding me, Frank?”
      His TS% his last two years in GS was .573 and .559 and, last year, it was .541. Aren’t you the guy who has argued on numerous occasions that a 32 point difference (or even an 18 point difference) was huge? Good job ignoring all of the other stats (especially the advanced stats) that he cited that got much worse. Keep right on cherry picking the stats that help your argument but ignoring the ones that contradict your argument…

    18. Z-man

      Phil also drafted Early, Thanasis, Layberie, Hardaway and Grant, with mixed results relative to others available, and may have lucked into Porzingis. His shining moment was drafting Willy. Even the most astute gm/scouts make mistakes. It’s usually at best an educated guess, especially with 18-19yo’s. But I will concede that Phil/Gaines liking Frank is in his favor. I liked their choices of KP and Willy at the time. I also really like the selections of Dotson and Jaramaz. Why is so outrageous that I disagree with them on Ntilikina?

      Again (for the billionth time) there’s no certainty here, or anything close to it. But if I had to bet, I’d project Frank topping out as a serviceable rotation player, with a career arc something like Iman Shumpert. That would be very disappointing to me, given the promise of that spot in that draft. And yes, I hope I’m dead wrong and that he becomes a Kahwi Leonard/James Harden hybrid. If anyone doesn’t believe that, they can go f themselves.

    19. MSA

      Also in my humble opinion you cannot hold a 2nd round pick that doesn’t pan out against a GM. Most 2nd round picks do not pan out.

      And we should give credit for the 2nds that pan out?

      That seems like an easy job for me.

    20. Z-man

      Oops, I searched back one year too far. And agreed on 2nd rounders, although some franchises do better than others on these late picks.

    21. bobneptune

      Phil also drafted Early, Thanasis, Layberie, Hardaway and Grant,

      C’mon Jesus… LL was the 57th pick and Thanasis with the 51th both absolute flyers. Anyone care to do an analysis on how such picks generally do?

      Over the last 15 years I can think of Kyle Korver , Patty Mills , Ramon Sessions and IT as the only players of note from the 150 drafted in those spots, so to dis him for whiffing on 57 and 51 is a little disingenuous.

      The Hardaway that played the last two years was a good pick at 24. The fact they didn’t develop him properly is an entirely different issue. Even Jerian Grant played to an above league average ws/48 = .119 last year the instant he got away from the toxic Garden.. Those picks were hardly bad.

      Early was a bad pick without question even at 35.

      It really isn’t being fair saying he lucked in KP when Gaines was considering him with the #1 pick. WHG was a genius pick at that spot.

      It is completely fair game to heap a ration of shit on Phil for a myriad of bad things, but drafting was not among them.

      You are correct if Frank becomes peak ShumpShump though :-)

    22. swiftandabundant

      @ Yes. Second round picks are not supposed to pan out. If you even get a serviceable bench player you have hit a home run with a second round pick. Also, you didn’t include Baker, who was undrafted, but scouted by Phil. If Baker turns into a serviceable bench player and Willie H continues to improve and become a good starter or even a really good bench piece…that’s a second round and undrafted player he found. That’s a pretty good ratio of success for the second round/undrafted guys.

      First round picks are another story, especially top of the draft. If its a top 5 pick and he is not a good starter, I think you deserve blame for the pick (although it does depend on the draft year cause some years are just trash). If its a top 10 to 15 and you don’t get a serviceable NBA player, then I think you failed. Once you get into late first round, second round territory, anything you find is house money.

      Also, Labeyrie could still be a good player for us. He was draft and stash project.

    23. swiftandabundant

      Yeah there were tons of people saying Phil should pick Winslow, etc…with the 4th pick instead of KP. It was considered a risky pick at the time (at least among fans). I think phil deserves absolute credit for that pick and I feel confident he would have been the pick with the 2nd or 3rd pick. I think it was Towns and then KP on their draft board.

      And again…HARDAWAY WAS DRAFTED BEFORE PHIL GOT HERE.

    24. Jack Bauer

      Hoping Frank can turn into Kawhi is expecting that the Knicks coaching/training staff is on par with the Spurs……drop mic

    25. DRed

      I wouldn’t have picked Porzingis 4th knowing what I knew at the time (I might have changed my mind if I understood how well he moved for someone as enormous as he is), but I found a site that had looked at the major mock drafts and the consensus was Porzingis would go 4th. Even if Porzingis flames out, his obvious potential and his production so far make him a good pick, so kudos to Phil & co on that one.

      I definitely wouldn’t have drafted Ntilikina. It’s weird to draft a guy who was just so unproductive. 5 points, 2 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game is not a lot to go on. I realize he wasn’t playing big minutes, I know per game stats aren’t the best way to evaluate guys, but can you think of any recent draft picks that saw the court that infrequently and did so little when they were on it? He averaged 4 shots a game-that’s wild.

    26. ClashFan

      The notion that Phil got “lucky” picking KP is hilarious, except in the sense that there is always some luck in drafting anyone.

      I remember the media laughing at the Knicks. Remember Mills in the draft lottery when the Knicks came up 4th? Him putting his head down in dejection? Ha ha. Same old Knicks. The 4th pick in a 3 player draft. Joke’s on the Knicks.

      Then draft night. Despite all the rumors (that might have been true) that Phil was feverishly trying to trade back for this guy or that guy, he made the KP pick. And the crowd booed. BOO! And the media laughed some more. Rumors of Melo being unhappy. Hookwinked! Bamboozled!

      Boom. Phil made some awful moves to be sure (Melo and NTC, Rose trade, Noah, lost his first HC choice, etc.), but he really did draft well overall and brought in some decent, cheap talent, though the story is still incomplete (Frank, Dotson, etc.).

      Good grief, give the guy credit for one of the few things he actually did pretty well.

    27. Z-man

      Thanks for that, DRed. I was more in favor of KP but would have been okay with WCS as a “safe” pick with a high floor. I did NOT like either Russell or Okafor. Those two might still develop into good players (especially Russell) but Porzingis was the best “high ceiling” pick at #4. And your take on Ntilikina is very fair, basing it on lack of data and questionable production in the minutes he did play. The only difference is that I take it a step further and believ that the lack of data and production is due more to physical/skill limitations than to age/system/coaching/competition. But we shall see soon enough.

    28. Z-man

      Also, let’s not forget that a guy being #8 on “everyone’s” draft board is not the same as “everyone” thinking that he’s the 8th best player and should be drafted there. Those boards are more about where they think a guy WILL be picked, not on where they SHOULD be picked. I think Frank would have been a solid pick in the 12-14 spots and a great pick in the 15-20 range. At #8, with the players that were available? Not so much.

    29. Owen

      Nothing has ever been more inevitable than Wiggins becoming a franchise millstone. It’s hard to understand.

    30. JK47

      Dennis Smith was probably the safer pick in terms of floor. I doubt he’ll be a complete washout unless he gets injured.

      Ntilikina is enticing though because if he hits his ceiling he will be a good two-way player. Defense is important! You don’t see lots of highlight reels of guys getting skinny and fighting through screens or using their long wingspans to deny entry passes, but those things help you win games, and those are things at which Ntilikina already excels.

    31. chrisk06811

      This could be the single stupidest comment ever posted on KB. But not unexpected from someone whose name implies that he can’t figure out whether he himself loves or hates the Knicks.

      This is just not true. I’ve posted some seriously stupid shit. One time, I suggested we should sign our ex to play center because she’s great at denying penetration.

    32. stratomatic watched KP and is less despondent

      The fact that Frank may not be the prototypical PG at this stage should hardly be surprising. He was scouted and drafted at a stage when the Knicks were still expected to play the triangle. So he didn’t have to have as developed a skill set in some areas. The Knicks can now claim they were going to draft him anyway, but what are they supposed to say “We don’t really like him as much anymore and we blew the draft”. No way they are going to say that to the press and fans.

      Here’s the deal.

      It’s highly likely he’s going to be a very good defender and a terrific spot up shooter off the ball. He seems to be the nicest kid in the world and have a strong work ethic. Those are great qualities to have. He’s so young, we probably won’t know how far he can develop his PG skills for 5 years or more. But in any event, I think he’s going to be a good player.

    33. ess-dog

      DSJr is a major injury risk imo, and Mitchell, while a good defender, has major issues on the offensive end and is older.
      I think Frank was a fine pick. Will he be a star? Not very likely, but you can say that about most draft picks. Jax went with the plus defender that was the better shooter. He has a way to go as a pg, but he was pretty sensible with the ball in a man’s league, so I feel like he can be serviceable there.
      Although wouldn’t it be great to put Doncic in a lineup with him? He’s just such a good fit with these young Knicks…

    34. swiftandabundant

      Its dumb that a lot of people are incapable of giving Phil credit for drafting KP and Willie H and also not trading away our future draft picks.

      People are capable of doing good things at their job and also bad things. You don’t have to be a Phil apologist to recognize that picking KP and Willie H (and hopefully Frank) were good picks and that not trading away our future picks (like every GM before him) were good things that have put us on the right path going forward (if our current GM doesn’t fuck it up).

      You also don’t have to be a Phil hater to realize where he messed up as a GM. Being uninvolved except to tweet or take shots at players in the media, overzealousness with the Triangle, trading Rose and signing Noah.

      Its like people are incapable of being subtle or seeing the shades of things. Phil fucked up. That doesn’t mean he did everything bad.

    35. Cock Jowles, #1 Tanking Denialist

      His TS% his last two years in GS was .573 and .559 and, last year, it was .541. Aren’t you the guy who has argued on numerous occasions that a 32 point difference (or even an 18 point difference) was huge? Good job ignoring all of the other stats (especially the advanced stats) that he cited that got much worse. Keep right on cherry picking the stats that help your argument but ignoring the ones that contradict your argument…

      More nonsense. At the risk of sounding like Ted Nelson, you completely miss the point of the argument. An 18-point difference is large in terms of productivity, especially at the low and high ends. It is NOT representative of a strongly inverse relationship between usage and efficiency. If a 60% increase in volume yields a 3% reduction of efficiency, the correlation is weak as hell.

      Barnes went from an above-average scorer to a below-average scorer by combining his large increase in usage with the drop in efficiency. If a player shoots a lot, and the average outcome of those shots is below league-average, any useful advanced stat would reflect poorly on the player. If he increased his volume by another 5 shots per 100 and kept the same TS%, his advanced stats would be even worse. You cannot improve productivity by increasing volume on below-average efficiency. It cannot be done.

      And yes, I saw the precipitous drop in BPM, which was in large part due to going from the league’s 2nd-best defense to a totally average one. And my darling WP48 reflected the minor drop in TS% as doubly bad when he’s taking 60% more shots per game. But with a jump from 15% to 25% usage, you should expect a greater dropoff in eFG% than 0.03. I mean, the guy took 9 extra shots per 100 possessions and only missed 1 extra shot for every 30 attempts. Is this really a convincing argument to you?

    36. Hubert

      Amusing 2018 mock draft. It has the Knicks picking 6th and taking Alabama PG Collin Sexton.

      http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2733947-2018-nba-mock-draft-luka-doncic-stealing-thunder-from-stacked-college-class

      It has us picking 6th in a draft where it says there are 5 players who could go #1

      It’s possible the hype for 2018’s draft ends up surpassing last year’s. There are multiple strong No. 1 candidates, even at No. 4 and No. 5 on our board

      Of course.

    37. iserp

      If a 60% increase in volume yields a 3% reduction of efficiency, the correlation is weak as hell.

      I dont think that’s weak. You have to take into account that the variance of the efficiency is relatively small… so 3% in a world where most players are in 10% bracket (50-60 %) is actually pretty big. Another question is whether you can argue that with one data point.

      In any case, all this arguments are a bit moot if you dont take into account shooting distribution, and the efficiency of each type of shot. So, is Harrison Barnes less efficient because he took more ISO shots, or because he converted those ISO opportunities less than he used to?

      And that’s where the hypothesis of increased usage leads to lower efficiency lies. I would love that every possesion would finish in Tyson Chandler rolling to the rim and stuffing it in the basket, but Felton could start every possesion with that play, and only produce 8 of those shots in a game, so you have to try other kind of shots.

    38. GoNyGoNyGo

      I am so amused after reading the Carmelo Anthony camp is hopeful that he’ll be traded to the Rockets by this Monday. ROFL!!!!! LOL!!!

      Now is the time to play hardball REAL hardball…
      I would start with the insulting Chris Paul and 2 firsts for Melo – and I announce it. Yeah, we like you THAT much Mr Anthony. I follow with:
      Melo+Noah for Anderson, Gordon, Ariza & Capella+ Two 1st round picks

      Both work financially. I would never back down from the 1st round picks.

      No way Houston makes either deal, but at least we tried ;)
      Now, try and win that 6th man of the year award Mr. Anthony.

    39. stratomatic watched KP and is less despondent

      @42

      It’s confirmation bias.

      People start with an opinion and then become close to incapable of interpreting or viewing any new information that conflicts with their opinion in an unbiased way.

    40. lavor postell

      Hahaha yeah, I was gonna say that looks like an easy under then I remembered they get to play the Nets and Knicks 8 times among a number of other shitty Eastern Conference teams.

    41. stratomatic watched KP and is less despondent

      But I can’t believe we still have to argue that playing on the court with Chris Paul makes you a better offensive player than if, say, Derrick Rose is your point guard.

      I agree 100%

      There is a measurable difference between the efficiency of assisted shots vs. unassisted shots. So if you are playing with a great playmaker and getting more assisted shots, you will tend to have a higher efficiency.

      Is anyone in their right mind going to argue that Amare would be as efficient with Toney Douglas as he was with Steve Nash over the long haul?

      These scoring vs. efficiency issues are so complex, it’s very difficult to isolate the reasons for changes from 1 year to another. But quite frankly, if you don’t think who you are playing with is a factor you are ignoring both evidence and common sense. Assists and hockey assists that result from certain players getting more attention and being good play makers all definitely contribute to greater efficiency elsewhere.

      Regarding usage vs. efficiency in general, the relationship is different for every player because they all have different skill sets. That’s why all these models and formulas are flawed. They assume some fixed relationship.

      Is anyone going to argue that Tyson Chandler could have kept his peak efficiency scoring 25 points per game?

      I hope not.

      The only reason his efficiency was so high was because he dunked so often. But you aren’t going to get enough dunks every night to maintain that efficiency at much higher usage. To expand his usage he’d have to take more shots that he’d be less efficient at.

      Other guys have more skills and greater flexibility.

    42. bobneptune

      I definitely wouldn’t have drafted Ntilikina. It’s weird to draft a guy who was just so unproductive. 5 points, 2 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game is not a lot to go on.

      I guess you really found it super weird when WHG only played 11.3 minutes for Real Madrid for 48 games in 15/16 ehhh?

      Dumb draft pick if he couldn’t break into a Euro rotation as a 21 year old :-)

    43. Will the Thrill

      Willy played for a much better team in a much better league. He was also picked in the second round…not 8th.

    44. Hubert

      Is anyone going to argue that Tyson Chandler could have kept his peak efficiency scoring 25 points per game?

      I hope not.

      The only reason his efficiency was so high was because he dunked so often.

      You were here in 2013. You should know better.

    45. Ntilakilla

      Willy played for a much better team in a much better league. He was also picked in the second round…not 8th.

      Isn’t this offset by the fact that Frank was 3 years younger and actually U18 MVP.

    46. bobneptune

      Willy played for a much better team in a much better league. He was also picked in the second round…not 8th.

      Maybe my point wasn’t clear. WHG didn’t not get PT in Spain because the competition was toooooooo hard for him and he really sucked as proved by his well above average debut in the best league by far, his performance was limited because his coach knew he was leaving and didn’t want to invest time/minutes in him to develop him for the Knicks.

      Willie did show excellent rebounding and TS% in limited minutes as Frank showed 40% 3 ball shooting in limited minutes and usage.

      Gobert only got 21 m/g as a 20 yr old in France and didn’t begin to blossom until he was 22. He sucked (ws/48 = .045 ) as a 21 yr old rookie and 2 years later is a great player.

      I really am curious where they had him listed on their big board….. however we will find out in the fullness of time.

    47. DavidCorperial

      Guys, don’t forget that when Willy was playing great alongside KP that was the season before he was drafted and while in Sevilla on loan from Real Madrid, that next year, everyone knew he was leaving for the NBA so he couldn’t crack RM’s rotation and no teams wanted him on loan after they knew there was no chance to get him.

    48. d-mar

      Why’d you guys have to get me unnecessarily excited by that BS Melo to Portland article? The writer hedges so many times, by the end he’s basically saying there’s almost no chance he would agree to a trade to the Blazers.

      But rumor has it….. )-:

    49. dtrickey

      Interesting article from Scott Perry on the MSG blog:

      http://blog.msg.com/2017/09/21/reshaping-the-knicks-agility-plus-intuition-required/

      Probably a bit of a puff piece, but the sentiment is good to read. Just need to see if he sticks to his guns.

      On the Melo trade, surely the FO has to run with the Portland scenario to get Houston to balk? I guess we will really find out how much Houston want Melo. Hoping CP3 starts really putting the screws on Morey to bring his mate to Houston.

    50. Owen

      Melo and Portland a perfect fit in my book.

      Re Ntilikina and Smith the only way this works out is that, having taken the defensive prospect over the pointz guy for the first time in recorded history, Smith Jr. ends up becoming the next Harden. Has to be.

      But I am still alright with it. Maybe Frank busts but I like the different tack he represents (even if we have rolled the FO since). If I had to make a rosy prediction I think he ends up like a Ron Harper, which would be a good get at 8.

    51. Mike Honcho

      Melo and O’Quinn for Harkless, Leonard and Ed Davis (and maybe a second rounder) wouldn’t be so bad. Losing 2 pf’s hurts less for Portland since they have Aminu, who can slot in as a small ball 4 adequately enough. O’Quinn is also a nice, economical way to bolster their back court. We get Harkless, who can give us 25 minutes of solid SF play, and Davis’ expiring contract. Davis isn’t so bad either, and might do well alongside Porzingis. Price to pay would be Leonard, but it’s 10,000 per year for 3 years instead of 27 million per year for 2.

    52. Ben R

      Portland were almost willing to give Harkless and Leonard for Anderson. I say we hold out for a real asset. Harkless, Davis and Swanigan for Melo or Harkless, Leonard and a 2018 1st for Melo, or Harkless, Leonard and Collins for Melo and O’Quinn. At least one asset and a good one if we get saddled with Leonard. Dame and CJ have put a lot of pressure on the Portland front office. We have all the leverage.

    53. Ntilakilla

      Leonard’s contract is a small price to pay for getting something of value for Melo. If they offer two legitimate assets and a draft pick, I’d take his crappy deal on for two seasons and even add on O’Quinn to sweeten the pot.

    54. lavor postell

      Leonard’s contract is a small price to pay for getting something of value for Melo. If they offer two legitimate assets and a draft pick, I’d take his crappy deal on for two seasons.

      Yeah, I’d probably bite then. I have no desire to watch Carmelo Anthony play basketball for the Knicks any longer if there’s a reasonable deal to be had.

    55. stratomatic watched KP and is less despondent

      Here’s my hope for Frank.

      I want him to become a combination of Avery Bradley and Chauncey Billups.

      I’m hoping he’ll eventually be more of play maker/efficient a scorer than Bradley but probably not quite up to Billups standards. On the flip side I’m hoping he’ll be more of a lock down defender like Bradley.

      I’ll take that all day long.

    56. stratomatic watched KP and is less despondent

      I see no reason to take on a single bad contract that will stifle our progress. Give us Harkless and other short contracts or no deal. Melo is going to leave. It’s just a matter of when. No bad contracts for him. The only way I’d even consider Leonard is if we got a 1st round pick back as compensation. Melo’s contract is bad, but it’s shorter than Leonard’s.

    57. Ntilakilla

      I see no reason to take on a single bad contract that will stifle our progress.

      I do, because the one thing that will stifle our progress the most is having Carmelo play on this team for another season. Taking on a moderately bad contract for a pick and two assets is a reasonable concession, especially considering the albatross we’re trying to unload.

    58. Ntilakilla

      And besides, I don’t believe that Melo’s contract is shorter than Leonard’s because I don’t seriously believe he’d ever accept the alternatives of opting out of his final year to 26+million dollars on the table for what the market will pay him now or accepting some kind of buyout from Perry. Everything about in history says he’s about maximizing profit during his career. Its why I do believe the rumors saying he’s so desperate to be traded to Portland even though its not his first choice. He wants to leave badly but doesn’t want to concede money to do it so he’ll comprise on where he goes to as long as they pay him the remainder of his deal.

    59. lavor postell

      Its why I do believe the rumors saying he’s so desperate to be traded to Portland even though its not his first choice. He wants to leave badly but doesn’t want to concede money to do it so he’ll comprise on where he goes to as long as they pay him the remainder of his deal.

      It’s exactly what he did in 2011 where he desperately wanted to come to the Knicks, but if push came to shove was willing to go to Brooklyn so he could lock in the max extension, because that was the main priority over anything else.

    60. lavor postell

      Here’s my hope for Frank.

      You older heads can correct me if I’m off on this, but wouldn’t an idealized upside of his game be a modern version of Dennis Johnson with 3 point range? Dare I say Clyde?

      Just thinking in that they’re all archetypes of big guards.

    61. DRed

      You absolutely take Leonard if it lets you bamboozle Portland into taking Melo. Say he hits 42% of his 3s again-you can trade him. Everyone needs a stretch big in the modern league.

    62. Ben R

      My realistic upside hope for Frank is a bigger Patrick Beverley. Great defender, good shooter, average passer, mediocre at getting to the rim but hopefully a solid finisher. Low to average usage, good teammate, tenacious.

    63. stratomatic watched KP and is less despondent

      Dare I say Clyde?

      I watched Clyde play when I was a kid. If he gets to Clyde’s level, we are going to be a VERY good team. :-)

    64. stratomatic watched KP and is less despondent

      Leonard sucks.

      The length of Lenoard’s contract sucks.

      The amount of Leonard’s contract sucks.

      No one is going to trade for him later if we take him now.

      It would be foolish to take that contract and tie up even more cap space on a bad player for 3 more years when we already have an issue with Noah’s contract.

      I want to move on from Melo as much as anyone, but he’s gone. He clearly wants out. There’s no way we are going to have to wait the full 2 years to get rid of him. I’d WAY rather start the season with him if it’s absolutely necessary and move on at the trade deadline or the end of the season than screw ourselves out of a chance to make a productive move for 2-3 years because we have another dead piece on the roster. Taking Leonard would be a weak desperate impatient move of the type we’ve been making for years. Waiting a few months longer is not a big issue. Taking a bad contract for 3 years might be if another player becomes available and we can’t get it done because no one wants Leonard.

    65. Bruno Almeida

      The real question is, will Ruruland appear on the Rockets or Blazers equivalent of Knickerblogger if a trade does happen?

      If we take Leonard but get some assets with it, let’s say a pick or Harkless, im fine with it. I would only refuse a Portland offer if it was something complete bs like Evan Turner + Leonard. Either Turner or Leonard would be fine, more fine with Leonard.

    66. Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada

      Fun fact: Leonard is the worst player to ever post a 50/40/90 season

      I’d take him. There’s even a chance he becomes decent again–it’s not like the contract is evan turners or Ryan andersons, which is all sunk cost

    67. Bruno Almeida

      Yeah, we have 7 years of evidence showing Evan Turner is terrible, we only have 5 for Leonard, and he was even decent / good for stretches in that period. Sign me up, all that matters is making sure this team won’t build around Melo any longer.

    68. Donnie Walsh

      So, is Anthony pulling another “I’d accept a trade to the Nets” move to force the Rockets to meet the Knicks’ demands? (A leopard doesn’t change its spots, after all)

    69. Bruno Almeida

      @92

      I feel kinda sorta bad but I hope so. Its pretty clear both sides are still struggling for leverage and Portland made it easy for them with CJ and Lillard going all in on Melo recruiting.

      This ball won’t be seeing the end zone soon it seems…

    70. KnickfaninNJ

      As I’ve said before, no deal was going to happen without a deadline. Training camp starting is kind of a deadline. So, if a Portland deal is going to happen, maybe Monday or Tuesday next week is the time

    71. stratomatic watched KP and is less despondent

      I’ve spent the last few minutes watching Myers Leonard summer workout vids on instagram and I’m all in.

      If I sent you my workout videos you’d want me too. :-) That’s the point of making those videos.

      He’s not a good player, fills no need on NY, and he’ll be riding the pine for 3 years behind better players we already have on the team. We’ll be paying him nicely to do it, unable to use his space to get something we actually need.

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