[NYTimes] Nancy Lieberman’s Return to Coaching Will Come in the Big3 (Thursday, March 22, 2018 10:23:05 AM)
Lieberman, a Hall of Famer who coached men in the N.B.A., will take over Clyde Drexler’s old team in Ice Cube’s three-on-three league.
[NYTimes] J.J. Redick, the N.B.A.’s Most Meticulous Player (Wednesday, March 21, 2018 1:39:46 PM)
In his 12th season, Redick painstakingly plans everything from his naps to his shots. It’s helped him steady a 76ers team that is poised to reach the playoffs again.
(Wednesday, March 21, 2018 6:00:02 PM)
MIAMI — The Knicks won’t run the table. Their two-game win streak was snapped in South Beach as the playoff-bound Heat blew out the Knicks, 119-98, at AmericanAirlines Arena. Count it down: Just 10 games remain to this melancholy campaign — and perhaps Jeff Hornacek’s coaching life. Worse than the defeat, the Knicks’ two neophyte…
(Wednesday, March 21, 2018 11:30:21 AM)
A lot would have to happen for the Knicks and Trae Young to be a draft match, but if that opportunity comes the Oklahoma star would embrace it. “If I was able to be drafted by the Knicks, it’d be a blessing,” Young said on ESPN’s “First Take” Wednesday morning. “That’s the mecca, that’s one…
(Wednesday, March 21, 2018 10:06:38 AM)
MIAMI – Jeff Hornacek said he thinks the Knicks should at least explore addressing the structural flaw in their roster in June’s draft by acquiring a natural small forward. After trading Carmelo Anthony, the Knicks never brought in a starting small forward. That left Hornacek to play Tim Hardaway Jr. at small forward with Courtney…
(Wednesday, March 21, 2018 9:51:27 PM)
MIAMI — Jeff Hornacek’s future as Knicks coach may be uncertain, but he made clear what direction the team needs to go to upgrade the roster: Get a true small forward.
(Wednesday, March 21, 2018 7:34:37 PM)
Tim Hardaway Jr. said he goes to sleep every night thinking about what if. What if he never got hurt and missed six weeks of games with a stress injury in his left leg? What if Kristaps Porzingis hadn’t torn his ACL?
(Wednesday, March 21, 2018 10:15:00 PM)
Kelly Olynyk scored 22 points and handed out a career-high 10 assists, Tyler Johnson added 22 points and the Miami Heat had little trouble on the way to beating the New York Knicks 119-98 on Wednesday night.
(Wednesday, March 21, 2018 7:10:00 PM)
Whether Jeff Hornacek returns the Knicks next season is irrelevant. At the moment, he’s still the head coach and in his eyes, he believes one thing the club is sorely lacking is a genuine small forward.
(Wednesday, March 21, 2018 5:55:00 PM)
The Miami Heat are coming off an incredible double-overtime win in which they set a franchise record by scoring 149 points, and now they face a team that has only recently shown signs of life after nine straight defeats.
(Wednesday, March 21, 2018 5:00:24 PM)
Now that Trae Young has officially declared for the NBA Draft, Knicks fans can officially dream of landing the player who has been called a young Steph Curry.
(Wednesday, March 21, 2018 1:45:25 PM)
Let’s take a look at a few of the top candidates and who might make sense.
(Wednesday, March 21, 2018 9:35:13 AM)
With the Knicks once again in the dumps as the regular season comes to an end, it appears a change at head coach is bound to happen.
(Wednesday, March 21, 2018 11:45:01 AM)
As the Knicks disappointing season comes to an end, some players on the team are playing for contracts next season. And F Isaiah Hicks is making a good case for himself.
[NYDN] Hornacek on what position Knicks front office needs to go after (Wednesday, March 21, 2018 8:21:36 PM)
Jeff Hornacek may not be here next season, but he has a recommendation for what the front office should focus on.
[NYDN] 5 Knicks coaching candidates if team dumps Jeff Hornacek (Wednesday, March 21, 2018 8:20:26 PM)
Mark Jackson, Doc Rivers, David Blatt, Jerry Stackhouse and Dave Fizdale all have something in common besides NBA head coaching experience.
[NYDN] Knicks’ young players atrocious in 119-98 blowout loss to Heat (Wednesday, March 21, 2018 8:19:28 PM)
Youth was served and gorged.
[NYDN] Trae Young says he’s ready for New York City (Wednesday, March 21, 2018 8:18:30 PM)
Trae Young declared Wednesday that his season in the spotlight equipped him for the pressure cooker in New York City.
77 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2018.03.22)”
I read the two articles pointed above about possible coaches. The SNY one says Mark Jackson would be an instantly popular coach among Knick fans. I find that hard to believe. Do you think thats really true?
The only guy SNY mentioned that I liked the sound of was Monty Williams. He had a good record in New Orleans, and the players seemed to like him. New management just thought they could do better, because that’s what new management does. And they changed coaches to their detriment.
I wouldn’t be mad at Fizdale or Williams. Fizdale is from the Riley tree..and we all know how that worked out the last time we had a young coach from the Riley tree..
JK47 mentioned yesterday that the prospects in the 7-9 are arguably more intriguing than the ones in the 4-6 range. I agree, but also think that’s the kind of thing that corrects itself by draft night. I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re picking one of Bagley/Bamba/Young instead of Mikal Bridges/Carter. ESPN has us taking Sexton at 9th right now which I can only pray is based on speculation and not any insider information.
Looking at the remaining schedules I’d normally think we still have a shot at catching the Bulls, but to their credit they’re pretty dedicated to making sure that doesn’t happen.
Fizdale, Blatt, JVG I would be fine with. As I’ve mentioned seemingly every day my 1st choice would be JVG — now THAT would be an overwhelmingly popular choice for NYK fans.
Stefan Bondy’s article mentioned Jerry Stackhouse as a possibility (I guess he’s G-league coach of the year)? That would be honestly pretty insulting to our current G-league coach who seems to have done a really good job with the best record in the G-league at 32-17 and a whole bunch of players getting 10-days or otherwise signing with NBA teams. But there is the former-player former-Piston aspect of Stackhouse that might be appealing to Perry. He was also mentioned as a possible assistant coach even during the Phil years.
Why Monty Williams? I mean, I have the utmost respect for the man (one of the most unskilled player ever to carve a niche in the league, a genuinely good man and someone who got struck by a life-altering tragedy – the death of his wife), but he’s one of the most unimaginative coach I’ve ever seen on this side of Scott Brooks. Is it too much to ask to hire a coach who tries something new?
Picking 9th or 10th does so much more for a winning culture than picking 8th or 7th.
I’ve been thinkin about this whole one and done issue the league has..
I like the 2 or none idea, but if I were the NBA I would add one caveat with an eye on developing and maintaining the product:
If you declare fresh out of high school, then you get drafted into the G League.
That feels fair to me. This way, those kids get to work and develop without being gifted a lofty status and salary and hopefully provide the incentive for these kids to work their way to the status and salary they want. Investing in development is the best way to help both sides IMO, because it’s not even remotely fair to say to these 18 year old athletes that they aren’t allowed to work in the field they chose for another 1 or 2 years. Either way, you bet on yourself and hopefully college hoops won’t suffer too much. Now might be a good time to consider it with this new swirl of controversy
It feels fairer than the current system to me too. The really good players might not get as much as they were worth, but colleges would have compete with someone else for talent, which would help players in general.
For those down to tank next year should we draft anfernee simons this year. Dude is probably two years away from being any good but i like his game
I’m scared that we’re looking at Knox after Horny’s comments about needing a 6’9″ small forward. Boy, what a bad pick that would be…
i happen to think porter will fall… he didn’t look all that great coming back although you can see why he was so highly regarded…. alot of the teams ahead of us have gm’s who might be gunshy about gambling on a guy with a back injury…. if he’s not working out for teams which is a good possibility i think he will be there….
trae i think is destined to be on the cavs…. there’s lots of rumors.. mostly from bill simmons.. that he will sign with klutch and that means lebron the gm will force the pick….
I don’t folow college basketball, but I remember people being skeptical of Embiid because his injury. Is Porter in the same class?
Yeah I also think Porter will be available and should’ve included him in my earlier post. It just seems like all the other players in the top-9 have shown out to an extent that teams won’t consider him worth the risk. I know I wouldn’t.
Yeah I think 2 years in college OR you have to go to the D-League for 2 years seems fair. I think it would create a better product for the NBA too. I guess my question would be as far as contracts. Those 2 years you’d be controlled by the team that drafted you but those years wouldn’t count against the team that drafted you as far as their rookie contract. So a team doesn’t lose 2 years developing a player.
I think this would be so good for everyone. Kids could either go to college or get paid a decent wage but not super star money out of the gate. They could actually develop into players too before they play in the NBA. I think there’s a real problem now with these kids coming into the league not ready to play. We talk about drafting a star to change the franchise but now it feels like most of the kids are unfinished products and don’t start getting decent till year three or four and by that time then the team that drafted them is faced with either resigning them for big money when they are still unproven and overpaying or letting them go or kicking the can down the road trading them for more picks in the hopes of drafting a star and starting the cycle over again. Guys back in the day came into the league much more polished. They get more practice in college than they do in the NBA and if they suck and sit on the bench most of their rookie year, they aren’t developing.
Meanwhile that Lebron Guy is having a historic month. He’s pretty good.
It’s amazing that he can perform at this level with all those miles on his legs. Plus he’s a big guy, Jordan and Kobe were wiry types who didn’t carry a lot of weight to add to the extra pounding. Lebron is carrying 250 lbs up and down the court and is on pace to reach the finals for the 7th year in a row I believe it is. He’s played like a whole extra season or more considering playoffs, Olympics, etc… Just really impressive.
If you want or need to earn money straight out of high school (or even younger) you can already go to Europe or China to play and get paid. If you are a top high school prospect, they will probably be anxious to get you and may even pay a premium. LaMelo (16 years old) and LiAngelo Ball are in Lithuania getting paid.
Of course, it’s kind of tough to make that move when you are 18 and fresh out of high school. But mature kids leave home to go to college all the time and I’m sure they at least try to make it easier if you only speak English and are struggling with maturity issues. Plus, if a kid isn’t ready to make that move, what makes anyone think that same kid could make a move to the NBA and take on that schedule. G league salaries will probably be limited by attendance, sponsorship, TV deals and the actual economics of the league unless the NBA is willing to subsidize the league (a portion of which would probably come out of the salaries of NBA players via salary cap tweaks)
Actually, 217 playoff games, so if you add the Olympics, it’s like 3 extra seasons. And he’s still the best player in the NBA. Mind boggling.
Nonsense. There’s nothing fair about forcing laborers into two arbitrary options so it “create[s] a better product for the NBA.”
Go on–
Oh, that’s good for everyone? Including the “kids” (adults) who stand to lose millions of dollars because of these arbitrary “good for everyone” rules? Yeah, nah.
How many times do we have to say this: it is not the responsibility of the players to make wise decisions with draft picks. The players declare for the draft. It’s not their fault if the Cavs pick a literal Russet Gold potato with the #1 overall pick, citing “upside, etc.”
So let’s penalize the players because teams still refuse to draft 22-year-old NCAA studs in favor of athletic freshmen. Yeah, sounds fair for everyone.
I agree with Hornacek.
IMO. the Knicks should try to add a legitimate SF (via the draft if possible).
When your are drafting 8-10, the ability of teams to correctly isolate the “best player available” among the 3-4 players at the top of their draft board is probably typically only slightly better than throwing darts. Unless there’s someone available that the Knicks absolutely love that does not play SF, we should probably just take the best SF available as long he’s among our group of “A” caliber talents at our spot in the draft.
I think “best player available” is a more legitimate strategy among the top 5 picks because sometimes 1 or 2 them clearly stands out from the others. Then it would be foolish to draft for need when an obviously better player is available.
Some people are going to disagree with this because they have strong opinions on a player or two, but I’m going to guess that any of us that has strong opinions right now (myself included) is wildly over estimating out ability to project who the best players will be.
Quite a few of my friends are quick to say things like, “KD is better than LeBron”. Listen- KD is phenomenal! But LeBron’s consistency throughout his career and what he’s doing IN YEAR 15(!!) beyond what KD has shown..well beyond it. And I think that says more about LeBron, because like I said- KD is phenomenal. But this season? How can you not look at what LeBron is doin and be ridiculously impressed?
The actual solution for fairness? Abolish the NBA draft and let teams spend their cap money on roster-eligible players. It’s absurd that a player should lose millions in draft position because, say, the top 3 draft-position teams already have a player at his position. Or that he should have to go to a shitty franchise as a consolation prize for inept management. Or that any legal adult should be discriminated against by virtue of his age, rather than his ability.
Maybe we should make it so veterans over 35 need to play on a winning team in the G-League for 10 games every year. If he doesn’t score 20 PPG on a winning team, he needs to stay in the G-League until he proves he can be a viable starter in the NBA. These veterans won’t stay sharp if they don’t get playing time, after all!
embiid had a lot more injury concerns since his back injury was much closer to draft day and he also had a stress fracture to his foot….. he was going to miss a good chunk of his rookie season at the very least…. he wasn’t getting much buzz before the year but his play catapulted him to be a consensus #1 before the injury…. if it wasn’t for the sixers it’s possible he would have slid even further….
porter is slightly different… and he’s probably more comparable to someone like harry giles… to porter’s credit he hasn’t look as bad as giles has but he clearly didn’t have as much lift in his two games back… porter would dunk with relative ease and he was doing a lot more hanging out on the perimeter….
so i don’t think he’ll slide as far as giles did…. but he’s also not the same level of prospect embiid was…. porter did have some questions about his ball handling and playmaking ability… which makes him something like a jonathan isaac level of prospect… only he comes with a lot more risk because if his legs aren’t there then he could be relegated to stretch 4 duty which would make him a bust….
He completed 7 last year. It would be 8 if he did it this year, but I doubt it’s going to happen for him. He’d need to go ’09 LeFuckYou to make that happen.
The problem is the pool of available 22 year olds is not as talented as the pool of available 19 years olds. Those 22 years old would typically have come out sooner if they were as talented. Everyone already knows that.
What they don’t know is how to separate the 19 years olds because they haven’t seen enough of them and their development could be explosive or not come at all between 19 and 22.
So teams have a choice.
Do they swing for the fences knowing the probability of striking out is higher or do they go for singles and doubles?
Right now they are swinging for the fences because they think they are getting better value (who knows if they are right), but that does not mean that even if they are right that the greater volatility that comes with greater value is always desirable for the participants.
When I was 25 I used to swing for the fences in the stock market on good value tech companies knowing some would be a debacle because the net of all of it was likely to be better.
At 59 I don’t. I shoot for singles and doubles.
Is the NBA 25 or 59?
That’s for them to decide.
Q: How old is the rookie leader in BPM, who has a BPM more than double that of the #2 player?
Here’s a name – Patrick Ewing. He’s been lobbying hard for a HC job for years and finally got one at his old school. He’s more than paid his dues as an assistant coach in the League as well.
Jowles, its just my opinion. Calm down.
I think its bad for the league that these players come into the league super raw. By the time they’re starting to actually get good, the team that drafted them is faced with a hard choice. If they got lucky and drafted a clear star in the making its a no brainer. Otherwise they have to either overpay for them or let them go or trade them for picks which just kicks the can down the road as far as developing a competitive team. If there was a way for these 18 year old YOUNG ADULTS to make some good money while developing in the D-League but the team that drafted them didn’t have to waste two or three years developing them only to let them go or trade them or overpay for them..how is that a bad system for everyone involved? I mean, if they got drafted they could still get paid a rookie contract salary that reflects where they got drafted. I’m just advocating a system where a team can maybe have control over that player for another year and develop them in the D-League before calling them up to the majors…you know like baseball does it. It seems fair to me.
And for the player it actually sets them up for more success because they can go to the D-League without the “shame” of being in the D-LEague. Maybe its one year instead of two. I don’t know. Or they can go to college and get a free education.
Strat I agree with you. I think at 9 we should draft a SF and hopefully the BPA is also an SF so its a no brainer. I still have faith Frank can work at PG long term and if not well there’s gonna be some big PG FA options in the next few years we could explore if that’s the way we want to go. We’re also probably gonna have a top 10 pick next year so we could go with a PG then too.
Jowles I actually agree with your last statement. I think a lot of teams are going about the draft wrong now and penalizing players who stay in college for an extra year thinking that they’ve reached their ceiling when we see players all the time continue to improve well into their mid 20s. A good floor pick is oftentimes better than a high ceiling pick. Someone mentioned this a few weeks ago that a good upperclassman might be the new market inefficiency in the draft now cause so many teams are going for the home run.
The Knicks’ roster is a wasteland with precious little young talent on it. Of course you draft BPA over positional need at this point.
And the options stateside are better? I get what you’re saying, but I think what some of us are trying to imply here, is making it more about the moneygrab than the product and fun of the sport is a bad idea. Sure, these kids can go overseas and get paid well out of the gate. But how many of them develop enough to be stars here? Where’s the professional pride in that? I’ll never knock someone for getting the money available, but this is the NBA. Isn’t it supposed to be- playing hoops at least- more fun for the fans and players than a regular hum drum job? And if you aspire to be great at it and make those millions while enjoying the lifestyle it brings, why not do it in a league designed to train you for such a life? Playing overseas is fine, but guys aspire to play in the NBA there- the leagues don’t have or want to have a plan to develop players for NBA success.
I mean, drafting 18/19 year olds is a risky business for franchises as they might get to a situation where they have to re-sign a player before they see his true development. But why should we have a rule to protect these franchises from themselves? If they don’t want to deal with it, don’t draft the 19 year old.
It’s not fair at all to punish those players because billionaire franchises need to be protected from their own stupidity. If they do need 4 to 5 years to develop they can still be drafted, play for a franchise, go to the G-league and everything. Giving more control and safety measures to moronic franchises just seems bad to me.
I don’t know.
What I would say is that everyone knows that a group of 19 year olds will improve more than a group of 22 years olds on average. How much more “on average” has probably been calculated by the smartest people in basketball.
If I could make some money as a gambler doing those calculations I’d already have the answer handy for you. 🙂
The next step would be to look the BPM (or whatever metric you like) of the 19 years old and 22 year old you like, slap the average gain on to the 19 years old, and decide which is better. Of course you should also consider the specifics of the kids you are evaluating because you may have other insights into both how much they might develop and how certain you are of it relative to average. Then you have a more informed estimate than just looking at snapshots in time for kids of different ages.
That is EXACTLY how young horses are compared to older horses in gambling on that game.
For example, I know exactly how much a 2yo horse is likely to improve between May of his 2yo season and January of his 3yo season etc… Then I look at pedigrees to see if the family produces early or late bloomers, whether the trainer tends to develop horses early or late, etc… At the end of it, I have a more informed estimate of which is likely to be better than looking at their running times now.
Can you guarantee me you are enough of a genius to know which player is going to be better between the 2-3 we have isolated as similar for the #9th pick and be right a very high percentage of the time?
If so, I’m with you!
The problem is that most teams are not geniuses like you. They make so many mistakes in the 8-10 range, they might as well be throwing darts. If you are throwing darts, you might as well be throwing darts at what you need instead of deluding yourself into thinking you are a genius that can select the best player a statistically significant percentage of the time.
No, because Embiid played (really well) for a good chunk of a college season before getting injured. Porter played (badly) in two games after coming back.
Porter might be awesome as a pro, but I have no idea if he’s good or not.
Obviously there is a crapshoot element to the draft. That being said, it’s ridiculous to act like there aren’t indicators that have historically told us which players have a better chance than others at succeeding in the NBA.
Picking Kevin Knox over Wendell Carter, for example, because theoretically we could use a small forward more than another big would be incredibly stupid. Wendell Carter has a statistical profile that has historically lended itself well to NBA success while Knox does not.
There will always be exceptions (i.e. Carters who are busts and Knoxs who succeed) but that’s no reason to ignore clear trends in the data.
It is, to some extent, but it’s even worse for the player to force them to work for much less money than they should be getting. And rookie contracts are cheap enough that it’s not like the teams are really losing out. Julius Randle sucked for 3 years, but he cost the Lakers 9-10 million and he’s way overperforming the 3 million they’re paying him this year.
I don’t see anyway MPJr falls to us at #9. Teams know who he is from his Team USA days, the Nike Hoop Summit, and his McDonald’s All-American games. He dominates everybody when he’s healthy. He’s not going to be drafted ahead of Bagley, Ayton, or Doncic because they’re dominant scorers who remained healthy, and Jackson Jr and Bamba are top 10 defenses by themselves so he won’t go ahead of them either. At #6, you’re looking at taking three of Trae Young, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Collin Sexton, Wendell Carter Jr, and Mikal Bridges ahead of Porter Jr. and I find it hard to believe that would happen. If things played our where Michael Porter Jr was available to us, the Knicks need to grab him and give him the process. Let him heal and debut him in the same game as Porzingis for all I care.
The thing I love most about MPJr is his height. He’s at least 6’10” and projects to be that 2013-2014 Carmelo Anthony (you know, when he played power forward) type of player who’s too strong for 3s and too fast for 4s. Without a doubt, a healthy Michael Porter Jr next to KP would change the course of this franchise. I have him at #2 on a Knicks’ specific big board behind only Luka Doncic.
Just cause something is hard doesn’t mean it’s bad for the league. If FOs fuck things up that’s on them. Don’t change the rules to shortchange players just because FOs get shit wrong. Talk about kowtowing to power..
I respect your basketball opinions, but this is everything that is wrong with the current regime. THINGS THAT YOU HAVE TO WORK FOR ARE NOT FREE. NBA teams, colleges, the NCAA, these groups don’t need another helping hand in the form of lower labor costs. The NBA front offices specifically just need to get better at their jobs. More exploitation of young players is a horrible idea.
First off, let me admit I’m not smart enough to know which of those two players is going to be better, but I’m going to grant that there’s enough of a difference that you can tell with some legitimate confidence.
If that’s the case, we are not disagreeing. I want Carter too if you are right. (actually I do want Carter and Mikal – lol)
I said in my initial post if there’s someone you really love go for the better player. What I am saying is that a LOT of the time, the players in the range where we are going to be selecting are very similar and any perceived edge does not translate into a statistically significant advantage in results. So going for BPA is not adding any value.
Well, The Stepien ranks four guys in their 4th tier: Porter, Carter, Bagley, and Mikal, so you could argue that you’re splitting hairs amongst those talents and you could then just go for an sf over a pf, for instance, if that was your more urgent need.
The problem is, those four guys are ranked 5 – 8 in this draft! After them comes Bamba, Miles, Robinson, Shai, and Sexton. If their rankings are correct (a big if) then we’re probably better off trading down from 9 to 13, unless someone above us makes a gaffe, which should happen at least one time.
Right but wouldn’t getting paid in the D-League for a year or two be better than going to college for a year and not getting paid nothing? Also, I think this would force the NCAA to do something and actually pay their players or at least allow them to do endorsements and profit share on the revenue. If the NCAA was facing a situation where they’re not just going to have one and one but might lose a bunch of kids to the NBA, they might change the way they do things, giving these young adults more options.
Because there are cartels that limit those options. The NCAA has spent millions to secure “amateur” status.
Wait, are you implying that the players are the cause of the “moneygrab?” The irony is so rich it’s making me want to puke.
Except that the NCAA is far more publicized, so players have an incentive to play “for a free education” since the national media focuses on a traditional, domestic product rather than foreign, even though Euroleague is a far better product than the NCAA.
Dude, if you’re NBA-star material, it doesn’t matter where you went to school or who coached you for a year or two after high school.
This is about fair wages and economic opportunity, not a philosophical meandering through ideas like pride and honor in entertainment. You’re advocating to limit laborers to two lesser-paid options and then saying, “Well, if they had pride in their jobs, maybe they wouldn’t focus on the fact that the billionaire owners make millions while they get paid $60k to stay in 3-star hotels when they would otherwise be on an actual NBA roster.
Yeah, you’re right. The players should do it for the love of the game. Nevermind the billions in annual revenue. It’s just a game! They should be happy with whatever they get, because they don’t have to go be a 9-to-5-er like the rest of us.
You just advocated for a MANDATORY two years in the G-League by comparing it to the NCAA’s sham amateurism. Why is it a false dilemma for you?
The fair call is to abolish the draft and let teams risk their cap space on “unproven” assets if they feel the payoff is substantial. But that’s not in your either-or proposition, because you choose for it not to be.
You’re assuming the Stepien is right. I’ve listened to a few of their podcasts and they are heavy on the ill defined subjective terminology.
What Jowles said. A mandatory two year G League stint is still an unnecessary labor control designed to cover up the failures of management. There’s no need to protect management from their own failures.
Assuming the draft continues to exist, and it most likely will, the most fair method for both players and teams is to let anyone* who wants to declare for the draft do so. Ideally the NCAA will adopt a rule that will allow undrafted players to continue with their college careers. As well as allowing schools to pay players however they want to. If a school wants to retain players, or wants someone who would normally hit the draft fresh out of HS they can compete for him. Hell, teams could set it up as a draft and stash if they wanted to. There’s a shit ton of possibilities if we just open it up as a free market. It would benefit everyone involved except for the people running the NCAA .
*Actually anyone. If a 16yo wants to declare for the draft and ends up on a G League team instead of finishing HS, let him. This idea that we need to force them to ‘make the right decision’ is a bunch of bullshit. Have KP or Frank suffered from playing professionally since they were that age?
I wrote this a few sentences later:
That would be SO interesting. Imagine, come “draft time” instead of a ranked lottery system, you had guys with cap space vying for young players. Players will want to go to good teams, so non-playoff teams get first dibs. With time, guys like Karl Anthony Towns can make more money right away. Risk of a bust will keep the market from getting too crazy (a few draft classes stick out in my mind).
Interesting!
Just give all lottery teams the same odds.
This shouldn’t be neccesary for the system to work. Good teams don’t have much cap space, nor do they typically want to spend the cap space they do have on guys who aren’t going to contribute for multiple years. Young guys with $0 career earnings have much higher incentives to follow the money than ring-chasing veterans who have already made millions in their careers.
Bad teams should have still generally have enough of an edge that you’d see the majority of the best young talent sign there, and isn’t that enough? Why is there the built in assumption (only for young guys) that the needs of the teams should trump the needs of the players? If a rookie wants to take less to ride Golden State’s bench rather than get as much playing time as he can handle on Phoneix why shouldn’t he be able to do that?
The reason why the needs of the teams come before the needs of the players is that the NBA is a business owned by the teams, not by the players. No draft at all would completely doom small market franchises in unpopular markets. They might be able to overpay to get mid-lottery level talent but they would never stand much chance getting any potential franchise changers. I think you are right that bad teams would sign more young talent but I’m betting the top 5 players would mainly go to good teams or teams in popular markets.
As for workers rights, the NBA is a private enterprise and can make up it’s own rules. It does not really have to worry about fair. If it wants to make the minimum two years, three years, five years out of high school it can the NFL has a similar rule and people aren’t losing their minds about it. The bottom line isn’t what is good for young players but what is good for the NBA and protecting stupid teams might be good for the overall product.
Jowles,
I have no argument against your counterpoint, because they all make sense. All I’m sayin is the NBA is business & entertainment before fun- but the game is rooted in fun & competition. But if these guys who are in it for the moneygrab aren’t enjoying the game and are just goin through the motions for the pay check, then the integrity of the game is compromised. These kids aren’t in everyman situations, they get to play a game they allegedly love that entertains the fans who in turn support this league and helps increase league revenue. And we all know there’s a bunch of players out there not giving their best and just collecting a paycheck. The idea is to at least give the players incentive to work at it as opposed to almost gifting them what they have and cause them to rest on their laurels. This is from a fan’s point of view. I could care less about finances with this idea. But again, no shade to the players for getting the money- it’s not their fault. But the NBA should operate as if it is the elite basketball league on all fronts, no?
I’m not sure I fully understand all the objections here other than the way things are may not meet “personal” desires and values.
1. The NBA has a right to determine what’s in it’s OWN interests in terms of hiring. We can disagree with their conclusion, but there is no law or free market ideal that suggests they have to hire an 18 year old kid fresh out of high school. If the wanted, they could require a college degree like many other employers.
2. Colleges have huge revenue streams from sports, but they also make enormous investments in arenas, coaches, staff, recruiting etc… Their return on capital may not be any better than the traditional business even though they get the players salary free. To determine how much they are screwing the kids, you’d have to know their actual profitability relative to their investments. I’m not sure that data is available, but revenue alone does not cut it.
3. Players that go to college for free must feel they are getting a decent deal relative to the alternative of going overseas to play because of greater national TV exposure, better coaching, and better opportunities for future endorsements. And I feel like I am getting a better deal buying a Coke than some generic cola even though I pay more for it. Brand value is part of the value equation. The college brand is more valuable in the US than than the Euroleague right now and there’s nothing wrong with that.
What might make sense is allowing colleges to pay players “if they want”. They should at least be allowed to. They may or may not choose to do so depending on their actual earnings, return on capital, and other factors. But if a few of them started competing for players partly on salary, it would open things up for the kids and they would get paid fairly. The downside would be that the richest colleges would total dominate and destroy the programs of all the smaller schools. Then we’d start arguing about caps in college.
College football makes me particularly queasy. “Come and play ball for us and turn your brain into Silly Putty, and in exchange we’ll give you a college education that will be oh so useful to you considering your brain is basically a bowl of porridge.”
The reason college players will never get paid (above the table) is because there would be a Title IX lawsuit about 2 seconds after the first paycheck was issued.
Women hockey players will demand equal payment to the players who participate in the revenue producing sports (mainly football and basketball), and that would be the end of that.
That’s kind of the point. There’s no need for any restrictions, if you want to pay you can and if you don’t you don’t have to. We don’t need a whole regulatory regime saying “you have to pay this” or whatever. It can sort itself out. Also, the colleges with the most money to spend on sports already dominate in terms of player acquisition, letting colleges pay players doesn’t change that equation for the worse. Colleges competing via pay instead of just facilities/staff/exposure also doesn’t change that equation.
And yes, the NBA is free to do whatever they want. But these restrictions on when you can enter the league hamper teams as well as players. For instance, not being able to draft someone young and stash them in their G League team limits their ability to develop players. On the one hand they get to outsource development costs, on the other hand that means sacrificing a lot of control to inconsistent quality development environments. And some players are ready to play in the NBA when they’re 19, some won’t be till they’re 23. It doesn’t help teams out for the league to make arbitrary cut offs.
This is 100% bullshit. Equal opportunity to play organized sports in no way requires equal money spent on those sports. There are no Title IX requirements that men and women’s sports receive the same financial backing and there never have been.
Of course, if schools want to compete for female recruits by offering them pay packages, more power to them.
The amazing thing is that if there was no draft we’d be even more screwed than we already are, as a capped out bad team.
I have no reason to disagree with your conclusions, but again, it’s their league. Maybe they’ve done some analysis and disagree with you If they do a poor job of running their business, it’s their problem.
True enough, but if they’re trying to make the G League more of a true development environment, they’re going to need to adjust both how they attract and keep players, and how they structure the contracts for those players.
Once again Jowles is on the money, and everyone arguing against him is just flat wrong.
Wipeout labor controls over the NBA labor market unless we are correcting for some systemic market failure or routine fraud. Don’t hand the owners even greater leverage. I’m probably fine with a salary cap that tracks some percent of revenue/profit. Other than that, let every player bid out their services at whatever price the players and the teams choose.
The NCAA is a crazy lie and sham. Everyone is getting paid except the people putting their bodies on the line. Who gets paid? Broadcasters, TV execs, coaches, athletic directors, school administrators, trainers, the list is endless.
John Beilein seems like a coach who gets it. Probably too old to move to the NBA tho
Don’t look now but Mudiay, of late, has actually been playing okay. In all phases he’s been exhibiting improved, even good awareness. The +/- bears this as well:
Avg over the prior 7 games: -2.9 (negative, but not historically so)
Avg over the prior 3 games: +7.3
He still needs to improve the shooting, which will probably take this off-season to realize. It may not seem likely, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Perry to win this trade as well as all the others.
We never had a chance in the tankathon. Chicago doesn’t even bother bringing starters on road trips, and Memphis is losing to Charlotte right now 120-59. That’s not a typo.
Andrew Johnson’s first draft model is in, and KB has done pretty well 🙂
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qjE-By_SQhcInDcdcawoVGEgaCornFOuZpsKOEp2OpE/edit#gid=0
expected RPM at end of year 4, in order (bolds are ones that I take the KB consensus to relatively match the player positions, italics for ones going against KB consensus, to me at least):
Luka Doncic Real Madrid WING 3.54
Wendell Carter, Jr. Duke BIG 2.79
Mohamed Bamba Texas BIG 1.98
DeAndre Ayton Arizona BIG 1.84
Marvin Bagley III Duke BIG 1.55
Robert Williams Texas A&M BIG 1.44
Troy Brown Oregon WING 0.90
Dzanan Musa Cedevita WING 0.61
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Kentucky POINT 0.58
Jaren Jackson Michigan State BIG 0.54
Zhaire Smith Texas Tech WING 0.38
Mikal Bridges Villanova WING 0.30
Trae Young Oklahoma POINT 0.29
Jontay Porter Missouri BIG 0.06
Shamorie Ponds St. John’s POINT -0.16
Lonnie Walker Miami WING -0.18
Markus Howard Marquette POINT -0.22
Jacob Evans Cincinnati WING -0.27
Miles Bridges Michigan State WING -0.28
Trevon Duval Duke POINT -0.39
Ethan Happ Wisconsin BIG -0.52
Kevin Knox Kentucky WING -0.60
Jevon Carter West Virginia POINT -0.61
Landry Shamet Wichita State POINT -0.61
Kevin Hervey Texas Arlington WING -0.72
Jarrey Foster Southern Methodist WING -0.76
Josh Okogie Georgia Tech WING -0.82
Dakota Mathias Purdue WING -0.86
Ethan Chargois Southern Methodist BIG -0.87
I’ve been slowly turning on JJJr. due to a combination of djphan’s concerns (most notably lack of ball skills) and his poor netrtg + on/off numbers, which put him lower on my list, though probably not as low as this spreadsheet has him at.
also a 3.54 RAPM at the end of year 4 is insane. If that were an RAPM this year, that would…
(cont’d)
be good for 12th in the league, as good as Jimmy Butler and better than Damian Lillard, at least according to this RAPM calculation (which has no prior, however, so it may be fairly different from AJ’s which has a prior iirc.)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSzp3G5rwP9xgCgluVGmR3Qj4-BMoGSYiuTKM6o_pzES6s95oQE1nQvB2CXed-4fRc_MMGgpULtDaJ_/pubhtml?gid=1825430955&single=true
Silver, freeze the fucking Doncic envelope for the Knicks.
Also, a great little +/- advanced stats primer found in the sig of a poster on the thread where I found the 2017-18 vanilla RAPM numbers:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1642970
(cont’d)
The only even-approaching-the-realm-of-ethical options for NCAA reform follow:
1. NCAA teams pay players their market value.
2. The NCAA is dissolved, prep-to-pro becomes allowed again, and the G-League becomes a true minor league farm system (with higher salaries as a result of increased investment.)
Anything else is, quite frankly, exploitation by way of market collusion (not to imply that exploitation ends at the NBA level, since owners themselves aren’t the product on the floor either and earn obscene gobs of money as compensation for simply holding onto an appreciating asset that you really don’t have a part in making better, since you’re not the one running fast, jumping high, or dunking the ball.) American sports–especially American college sports–are the closest thing we have to modern day feudalism.
I might also add that this collusion has already occurred (with the one-and-done rule being an obvious win-win for the NBA and NCAA, the former being saved from its own bad decision makers and the latter getting the superstar names it needs to maximize TV revenue), but hey, who are the majority of those exploited? Oh, it’s young, poorly-educated, mostly-poor black men who are told to compete against each other to join the “best” schools? Go on the ESPN.com comments if you want to see the true intellectual cancers of America: mostly white men from Trump country who tell these “student-athletes” to take their “free” scholarship and shut up. And to the comment about NCAA football — dead on. Totally unwatchable.
It’s not hard to be right against the (few) voices in this thread who claim “fairness” when proposing two exploitative options that they arbitrarily pulled out of their asses.
Oh and also: Fuck Donald Trump.
i like johnson’s model but i think it’s a bit too high on the ayton/bagley/bamba bigs… jackson i’m pretty high on .. i just like carter a lot more… and i think it’s probably overweighting his less than elite rebound rates because he has a ridiculous block rate….
i really like shamorie ponds also and he should be a mid first rd’er but for whatever reason he’s not being talked about there….
i’m surprised his model didn’t pick up gafford who’s being criminally overlooked….
The New York Post’s Mike Vaccaro with the awesome dumb take of the day.
In effect, he says that the Knicks tried to tank this year and it didn’t work, so they should stop tanking because it clearly doesn’t work. I won’t even get into his larger point (that the Knicks should trade Frank, this year’s first rounder and next year’s first rounder for Kawhi) because the whole premise is based on something as stupid as “The Knicks tried to tank this year, but they ended up #9, so tanking doesn’t work.”
To be fair, if Kawhi was healthy I’d totally do that trade. If RC Buford agreed to that, though, I guess it’d mean Kawhi is toast.
Yeah, but that’s why I didn’t even want to get to that debate (it probably is a fair return for a player like Kawhi if he’s healthy), as just the basic premise was flawed as fuck. Why not just write an article “The Knicks should try to trade for Kawhi Leonard”? Who in the world looks at this Knicks season and says, “Yep, this is proof that tanking doesn’t work.”
The Knicks didn’t even try to tank until after the KP injury anyways lol. What a shitty take.
Does he get paid per word? I feel like he gets paid per word.
Yeah that Kawhi article was garbage. We haven’t even had the lottery yet to determine where our pick will be and we were not tanking this year until a few weeks ago. Also this is literally our first rebuilding year and he’s advocating doing a Melody type trade when we don’t even have the pieces yet to be a good team with Leonard. Leonard and KP would pick tentially be an amazing duo no doubt but both are injured! I wouldn’t touch Kawhi with a ten foot pole right now.