Knicks Morning News (2023.07.25)

I think the Knicks (and most other teams) are grappling with the new CBA and its implications for building a sustainable “winning” roster and at the same time be one or two big moves from being a sustainable contender, if there is such a thing under the new constraints.

There are essentially 3 macro levels to the roster: rotation (9) non-rotation situational (6) and 2-way (3).

The rotation players are obviously the priority and drive most of the decision-making. The Knicks don’t want any “projects” in the rotation, but they also don’t want players in decline. All 9 players are of the win-now variety (we can quibble about RJ later). All are on reasonable contracts. All are under 30.

The non-rotation situational players need to minimum salary players who are at least capable of filling in due to injury or as stopgaps in the case of a consolidation trade, but they also need to be not so good as to be justifiably unhappy in their roles. Deuce and Sims are perfect examples. Roby and Jeffries are a step down from that. Fournier sticks out like a sore thumb, but that will eventually be remedied. So it seems like the 11-15 spots and the 3 two-way spots are going to be continually churned in an effort to find the next rotation-level player that can fill out the rotation after a trade or defection.

In other words, these spots will continue to not be reserved to develop first round picks who aren’t close to being rotation-ready. The FO seems to feel that it can get better value by rostering new CBA casualties from other teams, like Roby, Windler and Knight, or UDFAs like Martin and Jeffries on minimum non-guaranteed deals. Keels just seems too far away from being a rotation player to survive in this model.

KFNINJ, obviously it’s true by definition that no one hires players on 2-way deals to be part of the rotation per se. But what are the options for those spots? Generally speaking, it’s either very raw but young players with theoretical upside that they are unlikely to reach anytime soon if ever (i.e. Keels) or for older (but still youngish) “fringy” players who have at least one projectable skill (e.g. Windler) that might develop further.

Sims is a perfect example of a Knicks two-way guy who made good. He easily could have gone undrafted, but it didn’t really matter considering where he was picked. There are a bunch of players on main NBA rosters who at some point were on two-way deals. Alex Caruso, Jalen McDaniels, Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, Danuel House Jr., Monte Morris, Chris Bouchier, and George Niang all were on 2-way deals at some point.

I don’t expect much from Windler, but I think it’s possible that he isn’t a finished product yet, even as he approaches 27 years old. The main problem with him, other than several injuries that have limited his availability, is that his one NBA-level plus skill has not materialized. He was a knockdown shooter in college and has been anything but in the NBA. So the question is, what if he actually starts hitting 40% from 3, is there enough peripheral skills to project him into a deep bench role at a minimum salary? In other words, into Fournier’s current role? He apparently has at least some value on defense, not a complete nothing like Novak or Stauskas or Fredette.

I think it’s worth a look.

So what is Boston’s tax status? Are they taxpayers? (spotrac says yes) Are they hard capped? (spotrac says no).

Since Brown’s extension doesn’t kick in until next year, and they don’t appear to have used their MLE yet, it seems that they can still use the taxpayer MLE. Then next year they might be over the second apron unless they ditch a bunch of guys. And they have to make Jayson Tatum happy as well. Could get really messy.

Embiid is a perennial top 5-10 player (and arguably top-3) who does a lot more than just score, which is all Melo really did. If you could feel at least tentatively confident that his injury risk was not any different than for other top 5-10 players for the next 5 years, he’d be a total no brainer no matter what the cost.

But I have nowhere close to that level of confidence in his staying healthy through a long playoff run where he was the #1 guy playing 36 mpg. At least with Melo you had confidence in his durability.

“He floated RJ/Fournier/Grimes/ 4FR for Dame.”

That would be fine by me. Not that I want it to happen, but it’s a beyond fair deal…maybe even lopsided in our favor.

I doubt that either Dame or Portland would go for it though.

Embiid had conditioning issues early in his career. Brett Brown uttered the quote posted above in 2019, and the 538 article actually went on to laud his approach to conditioning after that (the article was written in Feb 2021.) Since that time, Embiid has apparently worked hard on his conditioning, for example, training with Drew Hanlon during the offseason, According to every report I could find, Embiid’s commitment to better fitness was only limited by injuries, such as coming into the 2022-23 season, when he had to deal with some plantar fasciitis. So I’m not worried about his dedication to being in shape.

I am, however, worried about his ability to stay healthy. That is the only reason I would hesitate to go all in with him.

And while I sort of agree with JK when he says: “Passing on Joel Embiid because you think RJ Barrett or Immanuel Quickley might become superstars is some of the most endowment effect-addled insanity I have ever heard…”, I personally don’t boil it down that way. It’s not passing on him for that reason; it’s passing on him due to the enormous cost of getting him plus the very real injury concerns. Passing on Embiid would involve keeping the powder dry for a better opportunity, and while waiting, hoping that RJ and IQ improve enough to become more valuable in such a future transaction, or to make a less all-in type of deal for another very good player.

Let’s remember that no one saw the Spida to Cavs deal coming a year before it happened, or Harden to the Nets or to the Sixers, or Durant to the Suns, or Kawhi to Toronto, etc. I don’t see the Embiid deal as a once-in-a-lifetime type of opportunity. More stars are going to move, and it’s important to be ready when the RIGHT opportunity comes along. I don’t think either Embiid or Lillard are right for this situation.

EB, that lineup has some holes, particularly in the 3pt shooting dept. I don’t see that as a championship-level mix in today’s NBA.

I should also state that I am highly dubious that Morey would trade Embiid to a team in Philly’s division, let alone conference, without getting a mammoth haul in return. I just don’t think there’s much of a chance of it happening on any terms that are favorable to the Knicks unless literally no one is competing for him and Embiid proclaims that he only wants to go to the Knicks (which is not working out so well for Dame thus far…)

“If you look all the way back to the July 25, 2023 thread you’ll actually see a number of people refer to it as gutting the roster.”

Today is July 25, 2023 and your link is to today’s thread…

“I’m looking at a worse case scenario where you trade every young player and pick. Even then you have a competitive roster.”

We have a competitive roster right now.

“Yes. That’s the point.”

We’ll have to disagree on that. Right now, I don’t see Embiid as the final piece to the puzzle in the current NBA. But I’ll keep an open mind.