(Monday, October 15, 2018 10:10:00 PM)
Kristaps Porzingis will hit free agency.
The Knicks gambled with their future and did not sign their star Latvian to the five-year, $158 million contract extension by Monday’s deadline, adding pressure on the front office to sign another star in the summer.
In an ideal Knicks world – which hasn’t…
(Monday, October 15, 2018 9:15:00 AM)
Let’s be frank, this isn’t a big surprise.
The Knicks announced Monday that the team has exercised its third-year option on guard Frank Ntilikina, their first-round pick in 2017 draft (8th overall) from France.
Ntilikina, 6-6, 200-pounds, struggled in his rookie season, averaging just 5.9 points,…
(Monday, October 15, 2018 6:51:18 PM)
Even if Frank Ntilikina doesn’t start the first game of his second season, the 20-year-old remains a big part of the Knicks’ plans. While waiting for coach David Fizdale to determine his starting point guard for Wednesday’s season opener against the Hawks, Ntilikina’s third-year option was exercised by the Knicks on Monday. The young guard…
(Monday, October 15, 2018 3:00:22 PM)
The flowery offseason rhetoric is over and now the games — and probable losses — begin for the 2018-19 Knicks. Player development is the priority over the won-loss record that won’t be aided by Kristaps Porzingis’ uncertain return from an ACL tear. A plan is in place that should include another high lottery pick in…
(Monday, October 15, 2018 11:40:47 AM)
What was long expected became official as the Knicks let Monday’s deadline pass without signing Kristaps Porzingis to a rookie extension, making the face of the franchise a restricted free agent next summer. By waiting to sign their biggest star, the Knicks will save $10 million in cap space and be in stronger position to…
(Monday, October 15, 2018 6:30:17 PM)
Though the Knicks have yet to set a definitive timetable for Kristaps Porzingis’ return, he has impressed new head coach David Fizdale with how he’s tried to help younger players in practice.
(Monday, October 15, 2018 1:55:11 PM)
The Knicks pick up Frank Ntilikina’s option for the 2019-20 season.
(Monday, October 15, 2018 11:55:38 AM)
Based on FiveThirtyEight’s projections this season, the Knicks should be shooting for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.
(Monday, October 15, 2018 9:38:46 AM)
Knicks forward Mario Hezonja explains his slow start in the preseason and the impact Lance Thomas has on him.
(Monday, October 15, 2018 6:02:12 PM)
The Knicks decided against signing Kristaps Porzingis to a rookie extension prior to Monday’s deadline — a move that will give New York an extra $10 million in cap space next summer and will make Porzingis a restricted free agent in the offseason.
(Monday, October 15, 2018 1:42:17 PM)
The New York Knicks have exercised their third-year option on Frank Ntilikina’s contract.
82 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2018.10.16)”
You know – I sort of had early Kemba in my mind when I said we shouldn’t go for him if Kyrie/KD/Kawhi go elsewhere, but as along as it’s not for a max # (which it prob would be, or else Charlotte would just keep him), Kemba’s not bad — he’s like a healthy Kyrie-lite. Their numbers are shockingly similar except that Kyrie is just a whole lot better on 2 pointers (career 49% vs Kemba career 44.5%). FT% similar, 3P% similar (esp over last 2 years), assists, turnovers, steals almost identical. And one could argue that Kemba has had to shoulder a much greater offensive load than Kyrie (in that Kyrie has played with a TON of offensive talent for most of his career, and Kemba has had to pretty much do everything from day 1).
4 years $100MM for Kemba would not be so bad – would take him through his age 31 season. He’s been more durable than Kyrie (has had 2 minor knee surgeries as opposed to more extensive stuff Kyrie has had) too – has averaged 80 games/season the last 3 years.
It’s prob not realistic since there is so much $ out there this summer, and it seems likely that Charlotte would max him out if no one else, but a smart contract for Kemba would not be the end of the world IMHO.
I don’t necessarily disagree but, as you note, it wouldn’t happen. It’d be a max or nuttin’.
Honestly I’d probably give a contract to Spencer Dinwiddie before I gave a contract to Kemba Walker.
I don’t care too much for Kemba Walker, I don’t think he’s a superstar but he’s a pretty good player. If we were paying 20 million a year for 4 years for Kemba Walker I would not be angry about it.
It’s just that the Knicks will only have place to get one superstar, and if they do follow that plan it has to be A superstar, anything else is kinda pointless. If you insert Kemba on the current Knicks roster, would we be much better than what Charlotte is? The Hornets won 7 games more than the Knicks last season, is Walker alone worth 7 wins? Probably not right?
So I don’t really see the point, to be honest. Better to keep flexibility and wait for better targets to show up, or if they don’t just keep rebuilding slowly.
Marc Stein has Dennis Schroeder as his 6th Man of the Year.
Has he actually watched this guy play??
I mean, when Jamal Crawford was a perennial 6th man of the year candidate for so many years and all he could do is create his own shot with mediocre efficiency, I can see Schroeder getting rewarded by the same type of play.
He’s going to get 14 ppg out of the bench and be instantly heralded as a “spark plug” or something like that. Can’t forget the general media basically worships Presti on an altar, so it’s expected.
Kemba is a good player who would make the Knicks better. The problem is if we give him anything close to the max (we would have to), our team for the foreseeable future is the current team + a 2019 draft pick + Kemba. That might be a playoff team, but not much more and then we’d be picking 15-20th for a while.
Our current plan already just barely makes sense if we’re able to land a truly elite player, so I really don’t think we can compromise on that at all. I personally would consider Kyrie Irving a compromise on that but there can be reasonable disagreement there. I think we can all agree that Kemba Walker is pretty far from that level though.
Kemba is really good, but the small guard going into his 30s angle is really scary to me. And it’s so much a PG’s league at this point that in my mind he’s already closer to the 10th best PG than the best. I don’t think you need to project too much slippage to see him start looking pretty close to an average starting lead guard. Obviously there is a number where you’d happily sign him up, but he’s for sure going to be looking for the max, and I do not want to be the team that gives him that deal.
Given how shitty our point guards are, Kemba would probably make the Knicks ~5 wins better. He’s a good player, but he’s very much a win now player and that’s not the Knicks.
The closer we get to the start of the season the more I have a sense of doom and gloom. I’m looking forward to watching Frank and I still wish they’d give Dotson more of a chance, but Burke, Hezonja, Knox, and the other young players haven’t impressed me much yet. I like Robinson long term, but I think teams are going to target him to get him into foul trouble and put him on the FT line on the other end. It’s going to take time.
Kemba a very good payer. I feel confident he’ll be productive through his next contract. He’s getting paid 12m now. IMO, he’s worth more than that but it would be a huge mistake to give him a max contract. If they could get him at a fair price there’s no rule that says you can’t eventually move him or anyone else later to roll up into a legit superstar if one becomes available later. It’s a value issue. I consider his age irrelevant. Built into anything we do is the assumption that some of the players we have now will be getting better and that we’ll be adding others. He’s good enough and young enough to be part of that as long as they don’t overpay.
I love Kemba Walker and he’s entering his prime. Next year we should be win-now team. He’s from NY, is exactly what the Knicks need, and shows up in the top-20 of many leader boards last season – especially some of the important ones like VORP (18), Offensive Box +/- ( 8), Offensive Win Shares (16). Why not max him out?
I was away all last week and have been looking for a final roster. Has one been published? The latest that I’ve seen has the roster at 17, with Trier and Hicks as 2-way players and yeah, KP is injured. So does that mean that Hicks goes down and Trier stays up???
maybe it’s time for everyone to predict the Knicks record for this season.
Prediction: 25-57
We’re not getting Kemba Walker “at a fair price.” Seriously there’s no point in even talking about it. Of course there are a bunch of players who it would be beneficial to add at a far lower price than they’ll actually get paid. Say you want him at his max or near-max or say you don’t want him at all. Those will be the options.
I’ll go 26-56. There is certainly potential for fewer wins but Fizdale does not seem like a “take it easy down the stretch” type of coach.
Whiffing on Kevin Durant and then turning around and giving a max contract to Kemba Walker is the definition of Knicksy.
If you look up “Knicksy” in the dictionary, there’s just a panel of pictures. In the first one there’s a picture of the Knicks stretch waiving Joakim Noah, then in the middle there’s a picture of Kevin Durant re-signing with the Warriors and then there’s a third picture of Kemba Walker signing a max contract with the Knicks.
I like Kemba more in the context of the Knicks because Ntilikina can make up for his defensive deficiencies and he would be the best PG the Knicks have had in a while. Still, it’s clearly a no, he’s gonna get overpaid and even then he’s not worth for a team that has so many other issues.
My prediction currently is 26-54. I think this is a 24 win team that will overachieve simply because they’ll play harder and win more games than they should because Knicks and not tanking on the last few games when they obviously should. I think anything from 24 to 30 is realistic.
I’m not so sure Kemba is an automatic max contract player. What’s working in his favor is that a lot of teams have a ton of cap space. So competition for the best payers should be pretty fierce. A few will probably get overpaid. But I don’t think Kemba is currently considered among the elite PG’s in the league. If anything, I think he may have started sightly overrated but is now underrated. He legitimately got much better over the last few years. I’m not sure what a fair price is for that. We all agree he’s not worth anywhere near 30m per year. But he might be worth 20m or even a little more.
when I saw the “make your prediction” post 26 wins popped to mind. I see I was not alone.
I only see Kemba as a good addition if we got Kevin Durant, and that means we somehow made extra cap space (without surrendering future assets, hopefully) and had compromising photos of Durant. Not likely.
If we sign Kemba Walker for 4/$80m (I don’t think we can but I’ll entertain it), give Burke 3/$18m, max Porzingis, and fill out the roster with minimums or near minimums we’ll be over the cap in the summer of 2020. We’ll have around $16m of space in the summer 0f 2021 when THJ comes off. This is obviously all imperfect because I’m assuming the 6th draft pick cap hold, etc. but it’s not a bad ballpark estimate.
We would not be able to get to contender status under this framework, and it assumes a fairly sizable Kemba discount. The Kemba Walker idea sucks guys.
26 wins sounds right.
Kevin Pelton’s last projection has the Knicks winning 29 games.
24-58 if they hold KP out as long as I expect him to. If he comes back early put me at 30-52.
“World record setting step back MSG Kemba for the win is the guy”….i’d sign for the max right then …but after reading 7000 minutes of KB posts and watching Kemba play significant NBA minutes I choose Emanuel to be our guy for 1/20 of the money . Emanuel is sure bet high lottery. Kemba is sure bet fringe playoffs. Skip.Tank with proven Panzer.
Sense much groupthink here.
36 wins.
Yes, right thinking and adjusting one’s expectations to the likeliest set of prior probabilities is groupthink. You’ve figured it out!
Let’s stop pretending Kemba Walker is going to sign here for $20M AAV. It’s just a waste of internet bandwith. Tim fucking Hardaway has a contract with a $18M AAV. Let’s get real. Kemba is getting $30M from somebody, full stop. If it’s not NYK, that would be swell.
I’m finding it really hard to make a prediction for this year’s Knicks team because I think a ton will depend on how tanky we get and I just don’t feel like I have a strong enough feel for Fizdale yet to predict what he will do. I think if he tries to win the whole year we’ll exceed expectations slightly. While we are badly lacking in anything resembling top tier talent we also have a depth in mediocrity that combined with the weak conference could see us in plenty of winnable games. That said, this team could easily, easily be steered lower if that’s what coach/management want to do. I suspect we take a middle line, giving the young guys plenty of chances to organically cost us games but not doing the banishing of vets that would catapult us to the very bottom. I’ll say 29.
Whiff on LeBron sign Amare
Whiff on Durant sign Walker
Can we call Kemba “SHAT” (Standing short and talented)?
The last 2 preseason games without Kanter injected the necessary pessimism into our collective bloodstreams. There will be a ton of games where the other teams’ 3’s will be dropping. We still can’t shoot or defend the three reliably, but Kanter, Knox, and Vonleh can rebound. Fizdale is smart enough to know that the 3 ball should not be THE featured shot for this particular team. Moving the ball until it gets closer to the basket and then letting our rebounders fight for putbacks makes sense. I think 34 wins are a possibility if Frank continues to gain confidence in his shot.
23 wins and some seriously diminished expectations. This team has a real lack of talent and no amount of wishful thinking is going to change that. Knox, Ntilikina and Robinson may be fun to watch, but real NBA teams are going to blow them the fuck out.
I have great confidence that the few “impressive” wins against 4-8 seeded playoff teams will make half of this board think they’re about a half-season away from becoming a contender. That will be fallacious.
Kanter-Thomas-THJ-Frank-Trey starting tomorrow
This Knicks team is going to go 19-63.
Interesting on two levels. First, Fiz had said Knox was an exception to the “starters have to earn it” approach. He’s already walking that back, and probably wisely. Second, Frank is playing SF, at least with the starting unit. Hopefully, he’ll get some run with the backups where he runs the offense.
Kanter, Thomas, TH2, Frank, and Burke might actually be our best starting five and I did not see it coming. I expect that Fizdale feels comfortable with Frank guarding anybody 230 pounds and under, so I expect to see Frank guarding the best perimeter player for 82 games.
If we’re serious about starting the guys who played well that’s a defensible lineup. I think Lance sucks, but he did have a good preseason and I guess everyone else sucks too.
I mean it’s crazy to not play the guy on pace for the most efficient scoring season by a guard in NBA history but Ron’s time will come.
30-52. I live in Charlotte and vote no to Kemba. I would rather spend the money on Rozier and Kanter. Also, no contracts past 20-21 season.
Also, if Kevin Knox can’t outplay Lance Thomas for that starting power forward job, he shouldn’t be playing anyway. I like what Fizdale is doing.
EDIT: In bad news for the tank, Mudiay is on the inactive roster.
Starting lineup makes sense to me. Play Frank a lot and give him looks in multiple roles on both ends. Knox doesn’t have to start day one. The only other must is that Robinson and Knox get real minutes off the bench and Trier isn’t completely buried behind our excessive guard count. If Lee is in the rotation it’s probably going to be a coin flip whether Lee, Ron, Dotson, or Trier get real minutes in a given game.
…and Mudiay too if his inactive status is due to a genuine ankle injury
24 wins
We aren’t going to get to contender status on our current path either. We keep getting worse every year drafting 18-19 year old players and adding 20 year old former lottery busts. By the time we actually do get good, KP will no longer fit the timeline with the young players and we’ll have to attach a 1st round pick to his contract to get rid of him and his wobbly knees.
When is Knox going to peak in 6-7 years?
How about our pick from next year?
I’m not trying to make the case for signing Kemba Walker. That would be a disappointment in my mind even if the deal was fair (and I agree it probably won’t be)
I’m trying to make the case that we should be trying to get better. Sometimes that means going out with someone that is not your fantasy date, having a good time, and seeing where it goes later. If I was still holding out hope for Charlize Theron and Scarlett Johansson I wouldn’t have gotten very far meeting the woman that ultimately made me happy.
Some day we’ll eventually start a SF who isn’t actually a SG.
Quick question…
Do we think KP is leaps and bounds better than Myles Turner?
Turner is probably better than Kristaps, but if Kristaps can score more efficiently he’ll be a better player. Their defensive stats are roughly equivalent, but Myles scores more efficiently because he doesn’t shoot shitty off the dribble jump shots.
turner is just flat out better…. even pre-injury I thought that…
He’s not, but he’s perceived as having more potential so he’ll get the bigger contract unfortunately for us. I like what Indiana did with Turner, there’s good chance he performs to the expectations of this contract and they have a real core if he ever develops further. That’s the ideal amount I’d want us to sign KP for, but it’s not happening.
The starting lineup is about as balanced as we can get right now given the lack of two way talent on the team. We almost have to have Frank and Thomas on the floor for defensive purposes, but since neither can be counted on for much scoring, 3 out of Burke, Kanter, Hardaway, and Knox have to be out there to start. Things change a lot with KP because he does both well.
We’re going with the “Frank is not really a PG” lineup, and still giving Frank a starting job. I like this.
Who plays backup point? Scrappy Doo?
I think Porzingis is very clearly better than Turner. I didn’t necessarily think that a couple of years ago- especially give that Turner is a year younger. But I don’t think Turner made much progress last year and he may have even taken a step back. He’s nowhere near the all around scorer that KP is and I don’t think he’s as good a defender either. He rebounds a little better, but that’s mostly because he plays C instead of PF. Rebounding is not his strength either. To be clear, if he was on the Knicks I’d be glad to have him. I just don’t think he’s as good as KP.
What I would try to do is start Frank with the idea that he can get some reps guarding the other teams best players but then try to line him up for some minutes running the offense against the other teams’ backups. So I’d probably make him the first guy subbed out after 5 minutes or so and then bring him back as the backup PG to start the 2nd quarter. Interested to see if that’s what Fiz has in mind.
KP is a way better player than Myles Turner at least by the lights of PIPM (+3.41 vs. +2.27, good for 26th and 53rd in the league, respectively) and RPM (+2.61 and +.43, good for #10 and #34 among PFs, respectively) , which are to my mind the best publicly available productivity stats. He’s a better defender in space despite the similar block numbers (Turner is athletic but kinda slow-footed because of his weird gait from the leg issues) and despite all of his horrible two point shooting he spaces the floor much better than Turner because of his very good three point shooting, which is reflected in KP’s superior ORPM/OPIPM despite his obviously subpar TS%. He’s far less physically developed than Turner and is deserving of a bigger contract because he’s already better than Turner and has higher upside. Assuming, of course, that he’s healthy and not permanently set back from the ACL tear, which is a big if.
25-57. Porzingis isn’t ready to return until February when the team is well out of it, suffers a small setback, and gets benched for precautionary reasons. The team otherwise looks bad but Kanter, THJ, and Lee win them a couple games down the stretch so we finish 4th in the tank race instead of 2nd.
28 Wins.
Good choice by Fiz starting Frankie to pester Young since the start and ease Knox in with the second unit.
I don’t think KP is “leap and bounds” better then Turner, only “potentially better” (but if “potential” don’t become reality is useless). From a $$$ standpoint, as a comparison, Turner’s extension is very interesting.
I like Kemba but no, thank you.
27-55. I like the starting five, Knox didn’t deserve the starting spot over Thomas or Frank. If you plug KP into Lance Thomas role and convince him to stop shooting from the midrange that lineup could be very fun to watch.
And seriously, no to Kemba. He’s a good player but why should we be getting him to win again 36 games every season?
PAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAA! Oh shit!
I dunno, man. I like that lineup. I’ve been saying that maybe he’s a Pippen-type with his skillset, so maybe it’s fitting that he’s a wing that can guard 1-4. This lineup should help maximize THJ as the 1st option as he shouldn’t have to spend a bunch of energy guarding top perimeter guys. Now when KP is back, that probably changes. But for now, I think this is a good idea. It also opens playing time up for Scrappy Doo. I know this much: Kanter better stay healthy and grab EVERY BOARD lol. We will be seeing alot of Vonleh this season. We have no one else to crash the boards unless Fiz decides to let MitchRob take his lumps too
21 wins plus 40 percent of the games KP plays, if/when he returns.
is kemba even what we need next year? I would think after Kanter walks, a big will be our priority, unless KP is the 5 and Knox the 4. even so, we would need depth there more than at guard
So the argument is that we should sign Kemba Walker to a large contract because the last two years he’s led the Bobcats to…(looks down at stats)… 36 wins.
Um, is that right???
Gotta start Frank. There’s no sense in coddling an NBA basketball player. He only needs to show improvement, not competency, on the offensive end. Virtually no way, outside of injury, that he’s not an All-Defensive contender by the time he hits his athletic prime. Now is the time to march him out there and play sink-or-swim with his off-ball offense. Hell, let him play PG. I don’t care. There’s no downside to losing 60 this year.
27 wins. This team is severely devoid of above average NBA talent, especially with KP on the DL.
No thanks to overpaying Kemba Walker. He’s not a bad player but won’t be worth the cap space that will have to be expended on acquiring him.
It’s incredible how this concept, one of the most simple concepts in analysis of any marketplace, gets lost on such a large number of people.
28 wins
(And my other sincere hope is that the Kings really suck and get the #1 pick so that the goddamn Celtics don’t get another goddamn lottery pick)
24 wins if KP sits out the whole year. If he comes back I could see up to 32 depending on when he comes back and what kind of shape he’s in.
In the preseason Trey Burke didn’t look like “unearthed gem” Trey Burke, he looked like “back of roster journeyman” Trey Burke. Maybe he’ll play better in the regular season. Maybe not.
So if he’s just “regular” Trey Burke you’re looking at a starting lineup with four out of five below average players. Not below average starters, below average players. So I have to conclude that this team will be very bad. 25 wins or less unless Porzingis comes back and does his usual outlier-superstar-play-for-three-weeks thing that he always does.
Every board but one. Lance will get one.
Glad to see that Fiz agrees with me about not starting Knox yet after his preseason! 🙂
Frank needs 30+ minutes per night as long as he can handle it.
Yeah, no thanks to overpaying Kemba Walker.
I’m gonna be an optimist about Fiz and go with 29-53. Kanter and Timmy will steal some wins here and there.
I really can’t see how we end up with win total over 23. Fizdale already looks like a better coach than we’ve had in a long while, but we have a roster of bad players, young players, flawed players, and Courtney Lee. Our bench unit should be very fun if it’s Baker, Knox, Hezonja, Robinson, and Trier.
i don’t know if im in the minority or not, but i have no desire to bring on the ‘big time’ free agent this summer. we’re just not ready. even if it looks like our draft picks could hit, i suspect they could take 2 years to marinate. at 31 years old at the start of his knick tenure (not saying he wants to be here…but if he did), year 1 is a wash as the kids marinate. our window with him becomes his 32-34 years? and im certain in those years, we’ll do whatever we have to do to ensure we don’t ‘waste’ his window and trade who knows what for who knows what. i’m sorry, but we’re a year or two years early for our free agent splash. once we hit 45 wins organically, thats when we make our move. there will always be some big free agent ready to move at that time or the year after at that point (they always move now).
i was gonna guess 26 (mostly cuz, there’s some other really bad teams out there, and, the inevitable “schedule, and/or up all night partying in new york” loss for other teams)…
but, now that i know frank will be starting – i’m gonna still go with 26 wins…
definitely some interesting aspects to the knick season: will frank figure out how to score, can trey continue his success from mid range, will mudiay ever get on the court, how much playing time does ron get this year, is enes gonna be shooting 3 pointers now, can kevin find some consistent success, if we get a full healthy season from tim jr – what will that mean for his game, how will fiz coach the team, if kp comes back this season – can he stay healthy, and, what will his game look like…
What is all the hate on Kemba about? I don’t think he’s the best PG in the league but he’s a top 30 player, an all-star and next year we should be in a win-now mode. Yeah, we can dream about getting guys like Durant, but we need at least 3 top-30 players to be a playoff worthy team. Kemba could be that. His defense is his downside but he provides a lot of what we don’t have enough of.
I mean, what’s wrong with a little premeditated murder? Who really cares? What happens in Constantinople stays in Constantinople.
22-60, this team is bad. The only thing I’m looking forward to this year is to see if Ntilikina has learned to hit an open jumper.
Eternal Optiknist I agree that next offseason is too early in our win curve to be pursuing a max free agent. With very rare exceptions it’s just not a good idea until you have a cheap 45+ win core.
Whenever I mention the strategy and try to make sense of it it’s just because I’ve resigned myself to the fact that it’s obviously what this group wants to do.
Is this the first year this board is 95%+ in agreement that we won’t reach 30 wins?
32 wins
They ARE more athletic.
But they don’t know how to win.
I like that both back court positions have handle and I think Frank will have a very good year at the deuce.
Canter is going to do what he does, and if he plays some defense, we’ll be fortunate.
If they play tough defense, maybe they get to 36 wins.
KP will take most of the season to get his legs back. I hope he comes back with a great shot. Most guys who hurt their knees come back better shooters. He was already solid, but he should shoot even better.
But a total rebuilding year. I want to see all the young guys playing lots and lots of minutes.
It’s the first year since the pre-Amare days that I can get totally behind a bunch of young kids finding their way. I think there is more talent than a lot will credit, but they are still very, very raw and that will lose them a ton of games. Even KP is generally still inexperienced.
But I’m excited to see them learn together.
And no Kemba, thanks
I’ll put up a poll!
P sure we’ve chased away the vast majority of Panglossian optimists by this point
Did someone copy & paste this from February 2011?
“NO THANKS! Lakers refuse to sign LeBron James, because it’s too early in their win curve to pursue a max free agent. GM says try again when we win 10 more games.”
Ha, using Lebron James to refute other situations is almost always a pseudo-strawman…the rules just don’t apply to him, but well-played.