Knicks Not As Good As Their Record (Or Are They?)

The New York Knicks have defied the odds and now sit tied for 3rd in the Eastern Conference. The last time the Knicks finished the season 3rd or higher was in 1913 … err I mean 2013. That New York team lost in the second round to Indiana. For those two young to remember, coach Woodson decided that he would give the Pacers a fair chance to win the series by matching their slow-footed big men with the same. New York could have easily ran the Hoosiers off the court by going small, but then what example would that set for the children about sportsmanship?

While one might be tempted to start parsing the reasons for New York’s awesome start by identifying the players responsible, that puts the cart before the horse. Or as Woodson would say, the cart before three tall plodding mules. We should first ask are the Knicks really this good, or is this a mirage?

The most simple way to determine a team’s true strength is to look at their expected win-loss based on points scored (aka Pythagorean wins). Scientists in a laboratory that resembled their parents’ basement noticed that a team’s Pythagorean wins is the best predictor of team success from season to season. Hence it does a better job of showing a team’s true strength than actual wins. Although expected wins isn’t perfect, it scores much higher than the two other methods tested against it — “this is our year because we’re due” and “that’s what my cousin Lou says and he knows someone on the inside.”

Based on this year’s stats, the Knicks expected win-loss is 10-14, lower than their actual record of 14-10. So how can we explain this discrepancy? The first thing would be to look at a strength of schedule. However New York ranks 16th on that scale, in the middle of the pack. Next would be to look at close games, let’s say 3 points or less. The Knicks have played in 4 of these games, and have won all of them. They beat Detroit and Sacramento by 3, while edging Charlotte and Minnesota by 2. It’s unlikely that the Knicks will repeat their victories in close games at this rate, and is the primary reason Pythagoras is pessimistic on the New York’s current standing.

But to stop there would be incomplete. There is another factor weighing in — Cleveland. The Knicks have played the Cavs twice this year, despite not even being 1/3 the way through their schedule. The reigning champs have beaten New York mercilessly, totaling 243-182. Against non-Cleveland teams, New York’s expected win-loss rebounds to a more healthy 11-11. While this is a cherry-picking-pie-in-the-sky way of looking at things, it does give optimists hope that the Knicks aren’t as bad as their numbers would say.

346 replies on “Knicks Not As Good As Their Record (Or Are They?)”

While this is a cherry-picking-pie-in-the-sky way of looking at things

You should double check the Knickerblogger bylaws. I’m pretty sure cherry picking is only allowed in the service of running the team or certain players down (e.g. JK47’s remark from a couple threads ago that if you take away a bunch of the shots Noah has made, his FG% would be much worse… now that’s the kind of analytical rigor I expect).

I’m used to “don’t believe your lyin’ eyes, the team sucks” but “don’t believe the W-L record” is a new one. I, for one, am grateful Phil acquired some veteran talent who know how to close tight games. If you want to see what the opposite looks like, rewatch last night’s game and pay attention to the guys in yellow.

I think the idea of tossing the two Cleveland games at this point in the season is probably a smart approach, Mike. And yeah, the point differential makes a lot more sense when you do that.

The Knicks’ negative point diff is primarily because of 4 games: Cleveland x 2, Houston and @Boston.

Not going to get into the specifics, but the loss to Boston was skewed imo by one of the worst officiated games of the season. Fuck Tony Brothers.

Cleveland and Houston are really bad matchups for us. We want to push the tempo, but doing so against teams like that plays right into their scheme and personnel for spreading the floor and launching treys. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get wiped in similar fashion in the remaining games we have against both teams.

Another interesting thing is that in a lot of the close games we’ve played, we have had double digit leads in the 3rd and 4th quarters, but always let teams back in. My eyes tell me some of this is because we revert to lazy offense and our effort defensively drops. If they can fix those 2 things then I don’t see the current performance of basically being some 3-8 playoff team as unsustainable or unlikely.

I took a look at the Pythag formula, and it is approximatedly 0.5 + 0.25*exponent*Differential/Teampoints up to 1% level (for a differential of +10.0). Since it isnt based in anything fundamental to the game of basketball, and the exponent is obtained adjusting to the observed data, it may be possible that deviations from the expected W/L do not come entirely from statistical fluctuations, but some other factors that are obscured by grouping all the data together.

I would say that there are teams that have beaten their pythag systematically (Grizzlies comes to mind). I am not saying we are one of those teams, but who knows…

So do you think that the Lakers would still pick D’angelo Russell over Porzingis today if they could redo their selection?

The Lakers have beaten Houston, Golden State OKC and Atlanta at home this season. Granted, they are in a slump and just got 2 players back from injury, but it’s still a good road win. These long West coast trips have typically been horror shows for NY, and now we’re 2-o with another winnable game on Tuesday.

And yes, pythag says we’re not that good, Derrick Rose’s shooting is not sustainable, blah, blah, but we would have ALL signed for 14-10 after 24 games. Enjoy it!

DRose’s floater is just an amazing shot. A secret weapon. He shoots some of them from 15 feet away and they seem to have radar guidance on board.

Report card for last night:

Rose-great
KP-great
BJ-terrific
Lee-solid
Noah-good
Willy-good
Holiday-good
Lance-poor
Melo-bad

And yes, pythag says we’re not that good, Derrick Rose’s shooting is not sustainable, blah, blah, but we would have ALL signed for 14-10 after 24 games. Enjoy it!

One of the best things is that even if they “should” be worse than 14-10, they’re not, and they don’t have to, like, give those wins back, ya know? They’re there no matter what, and even if there is a regression later, they likely will still finish ahead of their pythag, which is great. Wins are wins, you take them however you can get them.

That isn’t to say that there isn’t a lot of analytical value in expected wins, as there clearly is. It likely does suggest that the Knicks are having a bit more luck than expected based on their performance so far. But the wins are already in the book, so we should just be happy that they have won pretty much every “toss up” game so far. They could easily just be one of those teams that exceeds their pythag. It happens to a couple of teams every year, might as well be the Knicks this year! 🙂 We’ve had such shitty luck for years, I’ll sure as heck take some good luck for a change!

Based on this year’s stats, the Knicks expected win-loss is 10-14, lower than their actual record of 14-10

It’s interesting that that 10-14 is exactly where I had the Knicks right now based on pre-season predictions. They are playing very well and I see them pacing towards a 50-win season. The team is taking all the right steps to becoming a real winning team. Step 1 was to start dominating at home. Step 2 is to play at least .500 ball on the road. The 4-game road winning streak brings them now to 5-6 away. Step 3 is to find ways to win the close games. Put a check mark next to that. Step 4 is to be able to win when the star (Carmelo Anthony) is cold. Check.

This all makes me start to wonder. Let’s say they’re really as good as I think they can be.

What player that will be on the market at the trade deadline could put us over the top? I don’t think there is such a player. I like all the pieces – even Noah. If anything, I think we need to get our kids to hurry up and improve and it’s mostly about shut-down defense. We don’t have someone that can shut down a 3-point threat and we’re not a dominant 3-point shooting team. We’re starting to dominate the offensive boards but we’re not getting to the line and we’re putting the opposition on the line too much. The negatives are all things that are fixable. My hopes are high but I don’t want to jinx things.

Blah blah blah Pythagorean wins blah blah blah Derrick Rose is bad blah blah blah the Knicks are bound to regress.

Sure. Or maybe the Knicks are a 14-10 team through 24 games and we should be happy? You’ll never enjoy the sunny days if you’re always waiting for rain. We’ll be 15-10 after tomorrow’s game, too, and I’ll wait for the explanations for The Knicks Team That Dares To Defy Pythagoras.

We won a road game without Kyle O’Quinn who has been at worst our 4th best player so far this season. We won another road game with Sasha Vujacic as the back up point guards. We’ve been winning games without Joakim Noah being the player he was expected to be this season.

I can’t wait until we’re 25-15 and the pessimist party is waiting for the sky to fall in.

We need to sign Rose soon before we can’t.

… and Jennings!

That was vintage KP last night

KP is to young to be called vintage.

I have to say that I feel there’s no game we have won because of luck. I’d say we have been consistently better than the other team when we won.

You have to remember only 5 guys were on the team last year. They have meshed quickly. Every team has injuries, but Noah has missed 4 games, Rose 2, Lance 10, Lee 2.

I’m not saying 14-10 will hold. But, we were 4-6 after 10 games, 7-3 in our last 10. Maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle, and we are a slightly better than 500 team with a deep bench who might get lucky?

I wouldn’t mind Phil signing Mario Chalmers (if he’s healthy) for our championship run.

I think we will know more when we square off against Indiana, Orlando, Boston, Atlanta and New Orleans to close the year. If by 31 december we are 19-13 as we should (W against Pho, Den, Ind, Orl, Nor), then nothing is precluded to this team.

The Knicks should look to add another scorer off the bench I think. This way teams can’t load up on Melo/Porzingis when they’re out there alone with the second unit. Rudy Gay sucks as a starter in Sacramento but I wonder if he would be okay in New York off the bench as an expiring deal getting his offense off BJ. His .558 TS% along with 20, 6, and 3 per 36 would be pretty valuable coming off the bench. And Sacramento is the kind of team I could see being dumb enough to make the deal for one of our uglier contracts.

So there’s this story in the daily news about Metta World Peace. And on the broadcast last night Breen was saying how Kobe was telling Melo that it’s how Phil rolls. Is it any wonder that Anthony had 5 assists in the 1st quarter? Last week Berman, Bondy and Isola (amongst others) were all over Phil, some calling for him to step down.

I guess that’s why those guys are writers and Phil’s wearing rings.

Chalmers is interesting but he’s coming off an Achilles tear. I take Chalmers over Sasha any day of the week as the 3rd point guard at the veterans minimum.

I’m against having Rudy Gay on the team. He’s a high-volume, low pct shooter. He plays decent defense but is he better than Thomas and Kuzmiskis? Would you trade for him straight up for one of them (forget about contracts and money and only focus on talent and fit).

Ive read this blog for about 8 years now. Never did I hear any mention of pythag except maybe in the preseason/off season to predict win totals. Only in passing was it mentioned. Now, all of a sudden, its what all the realists are hanging their hat on. I’m sorry but its kind of pathetic. We are who our record says we are. 14-10. If we lose tomorrow we’ll be 14-11.

Now if we want to say we need to do better at closing teams out when we have the lead, then fine. But we won our last 3 road games. We started out 4-6. Then we got above 500. Now we’re closing out games on the road that we should win. This is called progress and its fun to watch The Knicks win. Are we gonna beat Cleveland in the ECF and GS in the Finals. Nope. But hey, we might make it to the ECF this year and maybe make it an interesting series. That would be pretty dope considering we also have our draft pick, 2 second rounders and a young star on the rise. Phil has done a good job assembling this team. We can complain about Noah and Rose and their contracts but we also have a deep bench and some good value with KP, Willie H and KQ. I don’t see how you can’t be somewhat optimistic about this franchise right now. Enjoy it.

I was thinking about that question of mine, “what player that will be on the market at the trade deadline could put us over the top?” and came up with Metta World Peace. I had a vision of him off his meds, guarding LeBron like a sock on a foot in game 7 of the ECF.

The Lakers are a bad team, but any time you can win in California it’s good. Sad I missed the game last night-it sounds like Kristaps was amazing.

I’m pretty sure cherry picking is only allowed in the service of running the team or certain players down (e.g. JK47’s remark from a couple threads ago that if you take away a bunch of the shots Noah has made, his FG% would be much worse… now that’s the kind of analytical rigor I expect)

I feel compelled to respond to this. Ruru made the point that Noah’s FG% was the best it has been since 2011, which is the real cherry pick here. The fact that it’s a cherry pick should be pretty obvious by the fact that if you take THREE– not “a bunch” but THREE of Noah’s makes and turn them into misses, he would have the same cruddy .450-ish FG% he usually has. He is seeing an improvement that is pretty much a mirage. It’s three field goals over 24 games.

We need to sign Rose soon before…

On this day in history – Monday December 12, 2011 – Chicago gave Rose a 5 year 94m extension. A mere 4 months later, Rose suffered an ACL injury. Those Who Ignore History are Doomed to Repeat It!

We should take the surplus wins and be happy. The only concern is doing something stupid at the deadline (e.g. anything involving a future pick) because we think we’re closer than we are. That’s a situation in which referring to pythagorean record would be a lot smarter than just taking a glance at the standings.

@ 38 – that’s a good point but I don’t see Phil doing that at all. I think he would only do that if a real home run trade in our favor was available. Phil has shown that he is not quick to make a trade involving picks esp during the season. I think he knows that this team can’t really win a title bc of Golden State and Cleveland but we can get better and get to that second level of teams keeping the team we have. We’re 14-10 with a brand new team. We can be better than we are now with this exact same team.

We should take the surplus wins and be happy. The only concern is doing something stupid at the deadline (e.g. anything involving a future pick) because we think we’re closer than we are. That’s a situation in which referring to pythagorean record would be a lot smarter than just taking a glance at the standings.

preach

I guess my whole point of asking the question was to highlight the fact that there’s nobody out there that is affordable in a trade. I like the Chalmers idea because he’s a free agent. I relish the idea that we have a all our future 1st round picks!

@37 June 22nd, 2016: “Heck even a Grant-Rose swap would have been a bad deal ” Zanzibar

The fact that it’s a cherry pick should be pretty obvious by the fact that if you take THREE– not “a bunch” but THREE of Noah’s makes and turn them into misses, he would have the same cruddy .450-ish FG% he usually has. He is seeing an improvement that is pretty much a mirage. It’s three field goals over 24 games.

The fact that only a handful of made FGs constitute the difference between an improved FG% and a poor FG% should suggest to you that Joakim Noah’s FG% is immaterial to his value. Of course, if his FG% were that bad, I’m *sure* we’d be hearing all about from you as evidence that he is washed up beyond repair. Indeed, we are *still* hearing all about it from you, because you chose to believe your own alternate version of reality wherein Noah’s FG% is to what you feel it should be based on your a priori opinion of him. What should we call that? Pythagorean shooting percentage?

The best thing this team can do is sit tight at the deadline and just build a healthy team through the NBA Draft over the years. It’s unlikely we have a high pick and that depresses me because Lonzo Ball and Harry Giles are two guys the Knicks could use badly. I don’t see Phil Jackson making a trade, and he shouldn’t unless he’s stealing somebody.

If D Rose and Noah improve as the season goes on, though, we’ll be hard to beat down the stretch.

“if you take THREE– not “a bunch” but THREE of Noah’s makes and turn them into misses, he would have the same cruddy .450-ish FG% he usually has.”
Or, if you add THREE — not “a bunch” but THREE of Noah’s misses and turn them into makes, he would have the same decent .525-ish FG% that he had in his peak years. We optimists can do the same thing with his FT% too…

@44

It’s unlikely we have a high pick and that depresses me because Lonzo Ball and Harry Giles are two guys the Knicks could use badly.

I would love to see them trade up in the draft this year.

June 22nd, 2016 on the Rose trade: “This trade argues for GMs as well as players being required to take physicals. Only some form of dementia could explain this. What a gut punch.” Zanzibar

I want Lonzo Ball to be a Knick so badly it hurts. We’re only 9 games ahead of Dallas there’s still time to bench everyone!

June 22nd: “And some of you are ready to put Rose in prison for simply coming to New York to make the Knicks great again? Really??” Reub

I mean you can’t have it both ways with draft picks. You either suck and get a high draft pick or you’re decent/good and have lower draft picks. You can’t have your cake and eat it too except in the rarest of situations like you tricked a bad team into trading you a first round pick and they still suck but you’re good and you get a lottery pick. That rarely happens. I get that some people hate being a low playoff team or a playoff team that doesn’t have a real shot at contending. But just about every team every year except 2 to 4 teams has no real shot at contending. Last year it was GS, Cleveland, OKC and Spurs. This year its GS and Cleveland. Everyone else is a pretender.

BUT you often have to be a pretender before you are a contender. And once you are a pretender, it may only take one player developing or making one shrewd trade or pick to catapult you to the next level. We all ready know KP and Willie H should only get better. GS was a 50 win, second round playoff team for a few years before they catapulted to the next level. Maybe Phil gets lucky with the draft pick this year. who knows. So bellyaching that we won’t have a lottery pick this year seems silly to me.

@37 June 22nd, 2016: “Heck even a Grant-Rose swap would have been a bad deal ” Zanzibar

Yes I still believe that! I also said that I believed Rose could be average or slightly above average and argued that it still would be a bad trade. The reason is that other than a short-term high there was really no benefit to trading for Rose unless you would re-sign him to the 4-year deal he would want. At the time, I advocated for keeping Lopez/Grant and signing Jennings on a 1 year deal. Had Phil followed my advice, we’d be in much better shape. No Noah, more flexible roster in terms of trades, improved record (probable playoff team).

June 23rd 2016: “Will all of the nattering nabobs of negativity please at least give this 27 yr old former MVP a chance?” Reub

Lonzo Ball is a really good prospect but he’s going to need to re-work how he brings the ball up on jumper, otherwise that shit will get picked all the time in the league.

I like Fultz and DeAaron Fox more as pro prospects.

Giles might be gettable if his knee issues scare off enough teams. The kid on Duke I really like and would probably scoop if the Knicks finish 17-23 range is Luke Kennard. He’s extremely underrated and has stood out as the best player on the floor almost every time I’ve watched Duke the last 2 years.

I hear all the pythagorean wins arguments but still think the value of “expected wins” is probably much more valid season-long as opposed to 25% of the season in. All it took/takes is 2-3 lopsided wins or losses to throw those things off.

I wonder if smart people have looked at the in-game “expected win probability” (graphs such as this) and tried to transform that into something that would be more predictive than pythagorean wins. As I understand it, part of what goes into pythagorean expectation is that, like in that Hinkie article, some people don’t believe that looking at each game as a discrete event is valid, which is why you take total points for and against for Pythagorean. That seems iffy to me (disclaimer – I am someone who has not looked into it any depth) since there are game-based strategies that differentiate one part of a game from another. Anyway, let’s say you took the area-under-the curve of the expected win probability graphs and added them all up. would that be any better? Or could/should you cut off all win/loss margins greater than, say, 15 points, and just count them as 15? Because what is the purpose of including points for/against when Ron Baker, Marshall Plumlee, Sasha, Kuz, and Holiday are the ones on the floor?

@45 Exactly.

If we’re going to live in the alternate reality of our choosing, I chose the one where Derrick Rose’s first seven games (which should rightfully have been his preseason) don’t count toward his TS%. Anyone who isn’t posting from their phone care to calculate that?

June 23rd 2016: “Oh btw youth is wasted on the young. Phil has found the key to making us great today. No promissory notes that never develop. He’s going to probably add KD or Batum or Noah plus Bazemore or Turner and turn us into instant contenders with a rejuvenated All Star at the PG. This is the offseason when we should all see the amazing possibilities.” Reub

P.S. Please substitute Lee for Baze or Turner

@52 You’d probably look a little better if you just came out and said that you were totally wrong here.

The fact that only a handful of made FGs constitute the difference between an improved FG% and a poor FG% should suggest to you that Joakim Noah’s FG% is immaterial to his value.

DING DING DING! YES!

This in fact IS what I am suggesting. It’s a tiny sample size. Ruru’s original point that “Noah’s FG% is his best since 2011” was essentially meaningless. That’s the point I was trying to make. Glad we’re on the same page.

No Noah, more flexible roster in terms of trades, improved record (probable playoff team).

I was and am not a fan of the Noah signing, but I think you are overstating this. I think at worst, Noah has been a wash on the court, basically an average player – that’s borne out by multiple statistics including his net rating, RPM (+0.46), WS/48 (0.105), and PER (14.7). The major issue is that the resources put into him for years 2-4 of his contract could better be used elsewhere given the strength of this roster is in the young bigs.

And re: probable playoff team, we are already there. Really guys, we’re tied for the 3rd seed right now.

Fultz is he point guard version of KD and is easily the best prospect from the past two drafts. I watch him play and pray he doesn’t end up in Boston or Philly.

De’Arron Fox is a bad scorer at the college level and that is the reddest of flags. No way I take him over Ball. I like Fox because he does everything else well but there’s only so far you can go with a sub .500 TS% guy at the PG spot.

So let’s say this was our roster today:
1: Jennings/Grant
2: Lee/?
3: Melo/Lance/Kuz
4/5: KP/Lopez/KOQ/WH

I’d take that roster over what we have. No way I’d re-sign Rose.

And there is no way on Earth the Knicks are a better team with Jennings and Grant over Rose and Jennings. Lopez and Noah probably is a wash. Look at Lopez’s numbers.

Fox owned Ball head-to-head. His scoring is a concern for sure, though we’re still early in the season where he could conceivably improve.

Just to expand on my post above about using some transformation of the expected win probability graphs — look at this graph from one of our wins against Minnesota (when we were up double digits pretty much most of the game but then had a lapse that made it close) — doesn’t this graph seem to match the quality of the team’s play more than just looking at the 4 point final margin of victory?

Zanzibar, when you were saying that you wouldn’t trade Grant for Rose straight up we had no reasonable reason to believe that Jennings was coming here. Just admit that you were totally wrong and you’ll look a lot better going forward.

I promise to expose some of the other nattering nabobs of negativity on this board in the future too.

June 22nd 2016: “If we can’t get Durant I’d settle for Bazemore and Whiteside or Noah.

Please try to stay positive guys! We’re getting really close.” Reub

P.S. Please substitute Lee for Bazemore

@62 – I understand. It’s obvious that you would rather have that lineup because you want the lottery pick. There can be no other sane reason.

I don’t put too much stock into head to head matchups. Deron Williams use to own CP3 in head to head match ups but we know who the best PG of his generation is. Lonzo Ball has UCLA humming and he’s the biggest reason they’re #2 in the nation right now. He’s the kind of guy who makes everyone better. Fox is a good prospect and would be a top 5 pick if it weren’t for PGs like Ball and Fultz. One thing I really like about Ball is his low usage relative to his profile. He’s a true distributor and having a guy like that next to KP would be amazing.

Knicks now 13th in NBA.com power rankings and 12th in the ESPN ranks. They are behind the Celtics despite having a better record.

I’m hoping somehow Ntillikina (sp?) falls into the teens. He’d be an ideal guy to draft and let develop so he’d be ready to start in a few years.

June 22nd 2016: “Lopez for Rose – An average center with a long contract for nothing.” GoNyGoNyGo

Fox was my favorite guard coming into the year because when you hear him speak you can sense he has a great head on his shoulders and he sounds like a true leader. If he fell to New York or if we traded up for him I’d be ecstatic. I see his TS% is now over .510 which is good, but I need that at least over .550 before I’m pounding the table for him.

@SJK

Strongly agree. The guys I hope/pray drop to our range are Giles, Ntilikina, Fox, Bridges and Anunoby. Even if they don’t there are a lot of guys in the late teens, early 20s that are intriguing.

Part of me thinks that Rose and – to a lesser degree – Jennings are showcase-pieces and placeholders i.e: this us what the offense looks like with capable point guard play, so image if we had even better point guards.

Here’s a question: is Hernangomez an eventually starter in this league? As others have noted, his post game complements Zingis’s (kind-of)inside-outside game really well, and last night the two of them showed again that they can shut down the paint area (with KP spearheading). Let’s say Billy makes that Year Two jump that many stud-players tend to make, along with improving his p-n-r D… I can see it.

Ive read this blog for about 8 years now. Never did I hear any mention of pythag except maybe in the preseason/off season to predict win totals. Only in passing was it mentioned. Now, all of a sudden, its what all the realists are hanging their hat on. I’m sorry but its kind of pathetic. We are who our record says we are. 14-10. If we lose tomorrow we’ll be 14-11.

Is this the standard that I should adhere to? I should look at how optimistically I can paint the Knicks, and then find stats to back that up? I mean then what would ruru do?

Geez I even found the silver lining with the Cleveland blow outs. Although the true silver lining is as I think Brian first pointed out — being above the expected wins is its own reward.

So be it. Our 14-10 record, extrapolated across our current win streak, means the Knicks should finish with precisely 72 wins in the regular season. Somewhere my high school math teacher is spinning in his grave.

You have to give Hornacek some credit for the improvement. He is pushing the right buttons, not married to the triangle, and he’s actually getting Melo to pass the ball ( sometimes at least).
That and having an NBA caliber backcourt this year ( Rose, Lee, & Jennings) vs. the hot garbage they threw out there last year are things that jump out at me.

getting his offense off BJ

Hey this is a respectable blog

nice work on that one farfa 🙂

brian, i saw you post from last night, man that must have been a really awesome experience…

I’m just hoping we don’t have to give rose mike conley money…maybe 3 extra years at 25 mil per – isn’t so bad under these new cap salaries…

cdiggy – it sounded like there were a whole lot of folks rooting for the knicks at staples…

@73 – Put it into context. I was putting out a worst case scenario that EVEN if it was an average center for nothing it was a good trade. Here’s my entire post:

I dunno, maybe it was a bad trade, but not that bad? [pardon while I grasp]

Put it into context.

Lopez for Rose – An average center with a long contract for nothing.
Grant for Holiday – A wash
Calderon for 2nd round pick – I would have taken a bag of basketballs

Yes. Bad, but it could have been much worse. We have more cap room. There are better choices at center in the FA market than PGs. Rose at least has a name that’s attractive to free agent ears. His money comes off the books next year, which is a MUCH better free agent class.

But yes, it was a moment of weakness by me. I got back on my meds right after that and the sun started shining again.

Geo, there are slim pickings out there at PG for next year. If we don’t sign Rose we might have to trade for Jerian Grant because he’s one of the few out there who are better.

I have to be honest about my understanding of Pythagorean wins – as in, what is the point of it? Does it predict the next season’s win total? Does it predict who wins the championship? In all seriousness, who cares if a team’s point differential suggests a 65 win team when in fact they won 62?

Basically the question is – what does it do for me that regular wins and losses don’t? I get the idea of total point differential, but does that actually play out in the postseason or in something that actually matters?

It should be noted that the pythagorean win expectation is different based on whose model you use. Morey used 13.91, Hollinger uses 16.5 — it’s empirically fitted to the actual win/loss data. So to me it seems like an answer looking for a question. But if I’m thinking about it wrong, please tell me.

The one thing that’s clear is that this is NOT the draft to trade our #1. (No draft is, though last year at least the damage was minimal.)

I would hate to do it, but I could see successfully trading our #1 plus O’Quinn for a top 10 pick. That trade I’d make.

I watched the game on the Laker broadcast last night. One of the few road crews I can tolerate. One of the things I learned was that Courtney Lee is top 5 in 3 point percentage.

I have to be honest about my understanding of Pythagorean wins – as in, what is the point of it? Does it predict the next season’s win total? Does it predict who wins the championship? In all seriousness, who cares if a team’s point differential suggests a 65 win team when in fact they won 62?

Basically the question is – what does it do for me that regular wins and losses don’t? I get the idea of total point differential, but does that actually play out in the postseason or in something that actually matters?

It attempts to show that “actual wins” are dependent, to some degree, on chance and not on quality of team.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation#Theoretical_explanation

It’s a similar concept to BABIP.

Zanzibar, when you were saying that you wouldn’t trade Grant for Rose straight up we had no reasonable reason to believe that Jennings was coming here.

We knew he always wanted to play for Knicks and I argued that we should give him 10-15m on a 1 year deal. I was right about this although I believed it would take more than 5m for him to sign a 1-year deal. I also think his agent communicated this to Phil through various channels that he wanted to play for Knicks before the Rose trade.

This team is reminiscent of that Felton/JR/Melo/Tyson/Kidd team. Everybody had a nice high for a year….then the talk we’re one player away…..Bargs signing…..old players’ production drops plus injuries…..long drought. I fear we’re repeating that cycle.

By the way, I’m glad people enjoyed my “best player” post. I didn’t see any comments during the game and figured everyone hated it.

I thought of it because I had a hard time answering the question – I think Hornacek has been the most valuable addition, because he actually plays the good players, sits the bad players, is willing to give rooks a chance, and isn’t dogmatic about any particular offensive system. His play calling is good out of time outs and he seems to have the team on his side. I don’t see mich wrong with what he’s done, actually. Grade at quarter pole: A.

@ 77 – Mike – I liked what you wrote today. This was not directed at you. I’m guessing that you wrote this today because pythag has been mentioned so frequently among the commenters recently as we’ve won more games. I like what you wrote and yes the cleveland point is salient. Its been a big thing with me since people starting bringing this up. Take out the cleveland games and that pythag changes a lot.

My point was more that pythag was something that wasn’t really talked about on this blog for as long as I can remember but now suddenly that the knicks are winning games, some of the posters who predicted Rose would suck and we wouldn’t be a playoff team are now changing their tune and using pythag basically to say “yeah but we aren’t as good as our record.” Which honestly seems like weak sauce to me. Again, I have no problem with people throwing it out there in discussion, especially in preseason or after the season but a little over a fourth of the way through the season when we’re 14-10 and winning games we should win (and starting to win road games), it seems like wet blanket behavior to try and justify that you may have been wrong about the team (and Rose). The goal posts keep changing with the “realists.”

By the way, I’m going to the Indy game on Monday with my buddy and we got a great deal. Here’s the link. I’m posting this as a public service. I just hope it’s really legit.

@86 – That’s the type of trade I might make. I would rather it not be O’Quinn, but our the front court is very strong and next year, Willy and Plumlee are going to step up.

@89

If Phil trades first round picks for some trash player with no history of success then sure it’ll be exactly like that. Because we totally had a young player like KP on that team also.

I don’t think you trade for a top ten pick if it’s in the lower half if Ntilikina/Fox/Giles fall to the mid first round. There’s a big drop off between 1-5 and 6-10 in this draft, and not nearly as big a one from 6-10 and 10-16. The mid first is still going to be a really good spot to be.

Obviously if you can get Ball/Fultz you trade everything but KP to get them. I bet Kennard can be grabbed in the second unless he lights up the NCAA tournament as much as he’s doing currently

I understand that there are some quality wins and non-quality wins, and that some really close games are really toss-ups. But the reason the exponent on NBA games is much higher than those in baseball is because there is much less left to chance in basketball (basically meaning you have to look a lot harder to find differences between expected wins and actual wins in basketball).

I dunno – I think if you look at the expected win probability throughout a game, it tells you more about a team’s quality than the final answer. Those games against Minnesota we were up by double digits for what seemed like 80% of the game. they made 1 run that made it close at the end. Remind me – have we won a close game in which we weren’t ahead for most of it (and expected to win by in-game win probability)? It feels like the pattern has been we are up huge in the 3rd or 4th quarter then blow 90% of the lead, but then still win.

June 22nd 2016: “We still need a PG and now we also need a center so good job Phil” Dred

June 22nd, 2016: “This trade is rock-solid, smoking gun evidence of Phil Jackson’s rank incompetence as a general manager. It’s one of those trades we’ve seen so many times, where most fans who are looking at it objectively know within 1 second of glancing at the particulars that it is a doomed, horrible trade.” JK47

thanks for sharing Go Ny…that looks like a great deal!!! wish i wasn’t a couple of thousand miles away right now…

oh wait a minute – it’s 44 degrees in the city today…yeah, no thanks 🙂

it’s amazing that after growing up in new york (still remember that crazy ice storm in ’78 – one of the craziest weather things i’ve ever seen), now that i’ve been out here in cali for so many years, once the thermometer dips below 60 – i’m freezing…

Good article from Kevin Ding about the Lakers and how they missed on Kristaps.

My favorite part for those thinking that KP “fell into Phil’s lap”:

Yet Jackson, despite his age and the pressure to win now with Carmelo Anthony, had his mind open enough to endure the draft-night boos and choose Porzingis. Jackson did it even though Porzingis hurt his leg early in his private workout at the Knicks’ practice facility three days before the draft and couldn’t even continue…with Anthony among those watching with frustration.

June 22nd: “He is really bad at basketball and the Knicks just traded maybe the only actual value on the roster for him. This may be the worst team in the league next year. I am so pumped.” Mr. Cock Jowles

June 22nd: “But we just got Porzinigis. We finally have one good young player. WTF would you go get Derrick Rose?

How can Melo like this trade? How could any FA like this trade? Doesn’t everyone realize that Derrick Rose sucks?” Owen

@99 – considering that the cheap seats are running ~ $70-100 for a lousy game, it is. $70 for a seat and a $50 coupon is a deal! I’m about a decade away from moving somewhere warm so yeah, I’m jealous. 44 degrees is warm, btw.

If Phil trades first round picks for some trash player with no history of success then sure it’ll be exactly like that. Because we totally had a young player like KP on that team also.

What will happen here is KP in a couple of years will have diminished or injured players like Noah/Rose/Lee/Melo at the end of their careers and then once they’re off the books we’ll sign a couple of past-their-prime 30+ year olds who happen to be available in free agency. To be fair, NYK’s are a business and executive incentives are such that short-term success is valued more. Phil cares more about Knicks’ record this season than he does about the Knicks’ future in 3 or 4 years.

And there is no way on Earth the Knicks are a better team with Jennings and Grant over Rose and Jennings. Lopez and Noah probably is a wash. Look at Lopez’s numbers.

And you left off Justin Holiday, who’s been a real pleasant surprise for us.

Before the season, I was strongly against the Derrick Rose trade, because I thought (1) prime Derrick Rose was about as far as possible from a Triangle-friendly point guard and (2) we were highly unlikely to see prime Derrick Rose.

I predicted that the Knicks would go 38-44. Today, I would take the over. If Derrick Rose, Unicorn and Melo stay healthy, this team looks like it is heading to the playoffs. They would have a chance against anyone in the East except a healthy Cavaliers team.

What will happen here is KP in a couple of years will have diminished or injured players like Noah/Rose/Lee/Melo at the end of their careers and then once they’re off the books we’ll sign a couple of past-their-prime 30+ year olds who happen to be available in free agency. To be fair, NYK’s are a business and executive incentives are such that short-term success is valued more. Phil cares more about Knicks’ record this season than he does about the Knicks’ future in 3 or 4 years.

I guess that explains why he kept the KP pick instead of trading it for a win now vet.

June 22nd: “But honestly, who gives a fuck at this point? James Dolan is the worst fucking owner in sports and Phil Jackson is a senile old man who doesn’t know the first fucking thing about how to put a team together.” Mr. Cock Jowles

(Well, he may be half right here)

June 23rd: “I’m not that excited to see what they do with the cap space, because Phil just traded the one good use of cap space he’s ever made for a fucking terrible player.” noblefacehumper

I watched the game on the Laker broadcast last night. One of the few road crews I can tolerate. One of the things I learned was that Courtney Lee is top 5 in 3 point percentage.

Also that they really fear Porzingod. They were thrilled when he was on the bench during the 4th.

I’ve watched a lot of away broadcasts lately and a lot of announcers are just homers. It’s pretty ridiculous.

I understand that there are some quality wins and non-quality wins, and that some really close games are really toss-ups. But the reason the exponent on NBA games is much higher than those in baseball is because there is much less left to chance in basketball (basically meaning you have to look a lot harder to find differences between expected wins and actual wins in basketball).

Or that baskeball scores are typically 10-20 times that of baseball, or 3-5 times that of NFL, or ∞ times that of soccer.

Reub – you shouldn’t forget all the amateur orthopedic surgeons we have here who thought there was no chance Rose could ever again finish effectively around the basket.

(Yes I know I am opening myself up for if/when Rose gets hurt – but for now at least, the Rose “health optimists” are doing ok)

I guess I’m not the only Knicks fan still sore about Woodson eschewing Copeland at the 5 in favor of the Martin-Chandler frontline.

I like the way you hold a grudge, Mike.

@reub you’re misrepresenting the position of many though not all, of those who opposed the Rose trade. For many of us, it didn’t matter how well Rose played – we weren’t going to re-sign him because of his injury history and age. Given that, there was no reason to trade Lopez and Grant for him except that the team might play better for one year. Nothing has changed in that regard.

Or that baskeball scores are typically 10-20 times that of baseball, or 3-5 times that of NFL, or ? times that of soccer.

I mean that’s why there is less left to chance.

Now Rose is a former MVP and Felton was not, though he was the starting PG for a national champion. But we all had our opinions turned about Felton sometime around this time in his first season. I really like what D-Rose brings to the table. A proactive PG, rather than a designated dribble it up past half court dude is a nice thing, but I am still in a wait and see mode. After all the rash jump to reward a run of moderate success is what led to Mensa Dolan to give Isaiah an extension one season when the team was @ .500 in December or January.

It feels like the pattern has been we are up huge in the 3rd or 4th quarter then blow 90% of the lead, but then still win.

Do you not remember the Knicks during the 1990s?

The Rose trade has left both teams happy with the return. Chicago likes RoLo and he’s helped them become the best offensive rebounding team in the league, a primary reason for their early success. The Knicks are happy with the added offensive dimension that the threat of Rose’s penetration provides and Holiday has bolstered their depth on the wing, a major weakness of the team.

From what I’ve seen of the Bulls and read on their blogs, they are in large part not believers in Grant. The Knicks do still have to make a decision on Rose, retain Holiday potentially and use the 2nd round pick Chicago gave up in this year’s draft. It’s too early to give a grade for the deal, but in terms of on court results this season it’s benefited both the Knicks and Bulls.

Just remember that if Derrick Rose performs well we’ll either have to extend him (very risky) or lose him after a year. If he didn’t perform well this year, we’d have traded assets for a pair of one year rentals and a late 2nd. Rose has been somewhere in the middle and he’ll likely be extended.

There is no optimal outcome from this trade, even if there’s a range of somewhat acceptable ones, I guess. It’s still not obviously good even if we’re currently reveling in the small sample size theater. We’all have to wait to fully evaluate the trade.

I can’t remember a time on this blog when we didn’t talk about pythag. However, it was usually in reference to other teams because the Knicks have mostly been bad.

Derrick Rose has produced below average numbers so far. His TS% is still below average. He still doesn’t look like a top 20 NBA point guard to me, although I didn’t watch last night’s game when he assuredly posted top 20 numbers. He has shown himself capable of having a few great games at least and if people want to optimistically hang their hat on that peg, go for it.

To me, same same but same. Rose has 8 threes all year, which is a good half for Klay Thompson. His FTR is still below his MVP levels. Signing him to an extension, based on the current data, would be a disaster.

But I am enjoying our 14-10 record. Those wins are banked which is a very nice thing.

“Doesn’t everyone realize that Derrick Rose sucks?” Owen

I don’t think so. Phil doesn’t think so. And our record doesn’t think so either.

you’re misrepresenting the position of many though not all, of those who opposed the Rose trade. For many of us, it didn’t matter how well Rose played – we weren’t going to re-sign him because of his injury history and age. Given that, there was no reason to trade Lopez and Grant for him except that the team might play better for one year. Nothing has changed in that regard.

Reub doesn’t make these kinds of basic considerations, it’s not even worth responding.

I can’t remember a time on this blog when we didn’t talk about pythag. However, it was usually in reference to other teams because the Knicks have mostly been bad.

Type “pythagorean” into the search box and you get a ton of results dating back literally over a decade. I have no clue what swiftandabudant is talking about.

Phil cares more about Knicks’ record this season than he does about the Knicks’ future in 3 or 4 years.

I guess that explains why he kept the KP pick instead of trading it for a win now vet.

That explains why Phil didn’t pivot to build around KP for the future (once KP’s potential became evident) versus signing Noah and Lee and trading Lopez/Grant for Rose.

Rose’s efficiency numbers are not great, but if you (yet again) look at trends, they are pointing up. (FWIW I think looking at his trend is appropriate since he basically missed the preseason). For his last 15 games he’s averaging (per 36) about 19 points, 4.5 assists, 5.5 assists on a 53.8 TS and 25 usage. For the year, the only other guards with those thresholds are Harden, Curry, Lillard, Westbrook, and Bledsoe.

There’s no doubt we all wish he would be more efficient, but his gross production is pretty darn good right now.

For many of us, it didn’t matter how well Rose played – we weren’t going to re-sign him because of his injury history and age.

Except that the Knicks are probably going to resign him. Isnt he like 2.5 years younger than board fave and oft injured George Hill?

That explains why Phil didn’t pivot to build around KP for the future (once KP’s potential became evident) versus signing Noah and Lee and trading Lopez/Grant for Rose.

Most adults can walk and chew gum. Having those players really hurt KP last night right?

So… you dismiss EWL while talking about “trends,” politely ignoring the -11 net rating he posted on 12/6, or the 3.4 GmSc he posted on 11/30. His best scoring efficiency game came last night, but his 2nd worst one came less than a week ago. Trends? What trends?

Yes, he had a strong game last night. A superstar-level game, even, at least on offense. But you must hold that in balance with his shit games, which occur regularly. He’s been better than expected, but he’s still a below-average NBA player. You touting per-game numbers over a cherry-picked sample don’t change that.

If this were a Denver Nuggets blog, you’d be talking about Emmanuel Mudiay’s “trends,” about how he scored 30 points on 18 FGA a month ago, so he’s trending upward. It’s all confirmation bias.

er, these blowhards would rather that KP was playing with Okafor, Embiid and Saric and learning how to lose properly.

Rose’s efficiency numbers are not great, but if you (yet again) look at trends, they are pointing up. (FWIW I think looking at his trend is appropriate since he basically missed the preseason). For his last 15 games he’s averaging (per 36) about 19 points, 4.5 assists, 5.5 assists on a 53.8 TS and 25 usage. For the year, the only other guards with those thresholds are Harden, Curry, Lillard, Westbrook, and Bledsoe.

Could you please cherry-pick the rest of those players’ games so we can see what their numbers look like over their best 15 games? I’d prefer to not look at games #1, #2, and #6 of the season, as he shot like doo-doo and turned the ball over too much from rust and a lack of rhythm. I mean, that’s what my eyes told me, at least.

Again: “This may be the worst team in the league next year. I am so pumped.” Mr. Cock Jowles

The fact that Derrick Rose doesn’t take 3s is a GREAT thing.

Even his best year shooting 3s, 34%, is efg % of 51, and virtually no free-throws created on attempts, is a major hamper on his efficiency.

And you’re wrong, Owen. Rose’s FTR is above league average (.240 to .204)

No, the trend that matters in this discussion about Rose is how often he is driving, how well he is finishing, and how infrequently he is shooting jumpers.

KP with Okafor Embiid and Saric (and Ben Simmons) would be wonderful, actually. Especially if we traded Okafor

I’m trolling right now to make sure that I don’t miss any of the quotes that reub is going to throw into people’s faces…..

“KP with Okafor Embiid and Saric (and Ben Simmons) would be wonderful, actually. Especially if we traded Okafor”

What the fuck does this have to do with reality?

@137 That June 22nd KB thread should be placed in the Smithsonian for safe keeping.

What the fuck does this have to do with reality?

Its a non Knick team that they can throw “Rose” petals at. That’s literally what it is.

What evidence do we have that acquiring young teammates around a young superstar is the optimal way to build?

Most of the anecdotes I can think of are the opposite.

Can you imagine if the Spurs decided to axe Duncan, Ginobli and Parker when Leonard turned the corner?

Even his best year shooting 3s, 34%, is efg % of 51

his current efg is .477. If he’s really a 25% 3 point shooter, yeah, he shouldn’t take 3’s, but if he’s really around 30 it might help a bit if he turned some long 2’s to 3’s.

@139
“I know it’s been a while, but I guess we should have an official thread for this garbage trade.”

Haha love this headline by BC

go back to Dirk. The Mavericks surrounded young Dirk and in-prime Dirk with guys close to their prime or older veterans.

No modern super-team has been formed by a long-term lotto draft approach.

Get good players and keep getting them.

That doesn’t mean giving Noah 4 years is a good idea. That doesn’t mean giving Rose anything close to a max is a good idea.

There’s some grey in-between.

“really around 30 it might help a bit if he turned some long 2’s to 3’s.”

Yeah, for sure. Easier said than done. But if he keeps shooting 37-40 % of his shots around the rim, he’s going to have a very good year and be a solid to good player.

I expect his FTR to continue to rise if he continues to drive as much as he has so far.

June 24th: “I can’t wait for this debate to carry theoughout the season, as Rose shoots 352-983 on FG attempts, but of those 352 makes, 3 of them are game winners and make the ESPN highlight reels.

“He’s a clutch game winner!”

“But what about the 79 games he didn’t win for us!”

“How many game winning shots does Robin Lopez have this year?!”

“The game wouldn’t have come down to the last shot if Rose hadn’t turned the ball over 8 times that game!”

“Bargnani sucks!”

There we go. I just Woj-Bombed the content of the entire 2017 knickerblogger game threads.”

Donnie Walsh

In prediction generally there’s no expectation that differences from an exact number require an explanation. It’s only if the size of the difference is outside a confidence interval, – conventionally at 80, 90, or 95% – that there is a search for why the prediction didn’t succeed in a given case.

I only did a quick search, but I didn’t find a method for calculating a confidence interval for pythag. Without that, I don’t think you can say whether the size of the deviation in the Knicks current record is greater than you’d expect. Even if pythag beats other models, it isn’t meaningful unless you know how much deviation from the exact W/L prediction to expect at this point in the season.

So, does anybody know how to construct an 80% CI around a pythag W/L prediction and whether the Knicks current record is outside of that?

This team is one KP injury away from sucking so bad. As it is, we are counting on him playing around 35 minutes a game to win every night. But with that said, I am pleasantly surprised to see how well we’ve performed in the win-loss column.

@139 – Reub, That IS a fun thread. I know that you’re pulling the band wagon, but I’ve got a prime reserve seat.

@151 –

The Cavs are one LeBron injury from sucking so bad.
The Thunder are one Westbrook injury from sucking so bad.

See the trend?

And you’re wrong, Owen. Rose’s FTR is above league average (.240 to .204)

I am not wrong. I said it was well below his MVP levels.

There are issues with point differential and run differential. One of the biggest ones generally is the fact that the team on a court for a given matchup isn’t representative of the team that produced that differential, most often due to trades, injuries, SOS, or lineup changes (rookie emergence.)

As a general kind of yardstick, it’s pretty good. And currently it says the odds of us being significantly than our record are quite low.

“As a general kind of yardstick, it’s pretty good. And currently it says the odds of us being significantly better than our record are quite low.”

knicks are on pace for 48 wins. No one here thinks the Knicks will be significantly better than that.

We’re running victory laps now because our $20M+ PG has racked up a lofty .063 WS48 over a quarter of a season?

YEAH BITCHES, ROSE IS 2/3 AS GOOD AS A LEAGUE AVERAGE PLAYER. SUCK IT, NEGATIVE NANCIES

Can you imagine if the Spurs decided to axe Duncan, Ginobli and Parker when Leonard turned the corner?

This is such a straw man I can’t even

The Cavs are one LeBron injury from sucking so bad.

Put another way, NYK could be one Gillooly away from playing GSW in NBA Finals. Hmmm…maybe Phil could have Rosen take some pictures of Bron and his posse when they take their annual 2-week sabbatical to South Florida to “rejuvenate”. Or at least Phil should ask them to take Noah along.

I guess James Harden, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green weren’t the result of long term building around the draft

We’re running victory laps now because our $20M+ PG has racked up a lofty .063 WS48 over a quarter of a season?

Yes. That’s it. You figured this out. Look at God

I guess James Harden, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green weren’t the result of long term building around the draft

Klay was the result of tanking. Which we did to get KP. Draymond was a second round pick….. we got one along with Rose.

Kevin Durant and James Harden are literally the only team I can think of that had the draft luck that they had. Ill give you that. Mind you they were the result of two types of luck.

1) that the young players weren’t good enough to win early but still developed into great players
2) Getting 4 top 5 picks in 3 consecutive drafts (Including Green) and hitting on them all. Using Green to get Perkins

“I guess James Harden, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green weren’t the result of long term building around the draft”

Whoa….. No. 1: Superteam. No. 2: Lotto picks.

What did OKC win?

Every team builds through the draft to some extent, including the KNICKS!!

“Kevin Durant and James Harden are literally the only team I can think of that had the draft luck that they had.”

And what did they win?

Re Rose: Even if you throw out the first ten games of the season (and while this is certainly cherry picking there is some justification to it- going to a new team/system and missing most of camp) I’m not sure his numbers 549% TS (which would be close to a career high) and a 22.3 assist rate warrant a huge deal. Sure, if he finishes out the season with a TS% around 54 and gets his assist rate above 30 (it was 40 in his MVP year) he might be worth a big (but non-max) extension given what else is out there. But pitching him an extension now as some have suggested seems crazy. In this stretch he’s been above average but not great and given that he doesn’t shoot threes I don’t see how he can improve his TS enough to make up for his low assist numbers. He’s been a huge improvement over what we had last year but just about anyone else would have been too.

Generally speaking I think saying “what did a team with Westbrook, Harden, Durant win?” as an argument against rebuilding primarily through the draft is a pretty shitty argument when the only reason they didn’t win a ring was because they were facing the greatest player of all time

Never mind the fact that that team was perennial contenders despite not winning

Building around Melo and KP will not make us perennial contenders–building a team around KP and other young players will

Generally speaking I think saying “what did a team with Westbrook, Harden, Durant win?” as an argument against rebuilding primarily through the draft is a pretty shitty argument when the only reason they didn’t win a ring was because they were facing the greatest player of all time

I think its more of the fact that you aren’t guaranteed a title, even with the greatest execution of the plan ever.

What did OKC win?

4 55-plus-win seasons, an MVP award, 4 All-Defensive selections, 11 All-NBA selections, a dozen All-Star appearances, 4 All-Rookie selections, 10 playoff series, and a Finals appearance. And Harden probably wins them many more playoff games, if not a chip, if they had chosen him over Kendrick “Championship Centerpiece” Perkins and put him at the point whenever Russ wasn’t. But of course, can we really consider a team a success unless they win the Finals? America sez no.

Admittedly, Rose is playing the best basketball he has played in years. In fact, I would go as far as to say he’s playing smarter now than at any time in his career. But a big portion of the “anti-Rose sentiment” was that he was unlikely to make it through an entire season. And if he did, we might actually resign him to a long term contract. So we were better off keeping younger players with attractive contracts like Lopez and Grant. Even as well as Rose is playing lately, the downside of this deal is still very much in play.

I think its more of the fact that you aren’t guaranteed a title, even with the greatest execution of the plan ever.

Sure, but shouldn’t you go with the plan with the highest chance of success, the one that involves building primarily through the draft with the cap mainly devoted to savvy below market free agency acquisitions?

This isn’t necessarily the same thing as tanking, mind you. But it’s not what we’re currently planning on doing, either.

“We shouldn’t try to be like the Durant, Harden, Westbrook Thunder team because they didn’t win a championship” is really a thing that’s being said?

“We shouldn’t try to be like the Durant, Harden, Westbrook Thunder team because they didn’t win a championship” is really a thing that’s being said?

Yes. By you. Literally no one else said this.

Knicks are improving. I think there’s a finishing kick that’s missing on their runs. Last night 2:33 in the second Carmelo misses an open three pointer, 2:12 Courtney Lee misses an open three pointer, 2:00 Nick Young draws a BS three point shooting foul and makes 2/3. This is a situation where we were up 7 and could have been up 13 but ended up with a 5 point lead. As time goes on I think the Knicks make more of those type of situations. They are clearly playing with more confidence and have deeper talent then LAL and SAC. They are in control and it’s good to see that they are making shots in pressure situations. As the season progresses I’d like to see them leverage leads and get some rest for Porzingis. Rose was brilliant last night. More games like that and he deserves his extension. It’s certainly too soon to talk about it if you’re Phil, though.

On that note, I remember how there was a lot of talk about the “bright future” of the Harden Durant Westbrook trio. Unfortunately Presti is a moron and ended up trading Harden in what is likely one of the worst trades of all time.

How bonkers would an OKC team with all 3 of those players playing in their career years (I.e. This year) have been? Could they have been better than last year’s GSW team? It’s possible, but Iggy and Bogut are hard to replicate simultaneously.

Sure, but shouldn’t you go with the plan with the highest chance of success

Serious question here. Do you have the calculations for this? What are the percentage of teams that have won by primarily building through the draft. Obviously this has to be a post 90s thing or whenever free agency started.

Off top of my head:

Dallas- NO
Miami-NO (06 got Shaq- Big3 for the 2 peat)
Spurs- Yes
Lakers-NO
90s CHI- not sure how to quantify
Warriors-Yes (Finals MVP was a free agent)
Cavs- NO
Boston – NO
Detroit- NO

Unfortunately Presti is a moron and ended up trading Harden

I thought the penny pinching oil billionaire is the one who pushed him to do this?

If you want a laugh, go back to 2012 when Harden got traded and watch the “optimists” talk about how Harden was the tertiary option and would never be able to replicate his Thunder stats as a team’s star.

and Melo with 7 assists / 8 rebounds / 3 steals. Yeah, poor shooting but doing quite a bit to affect the game despite. This is the player we’ve wanted him to be. 14-10 and it’s easy to see ways we can and may get better. No KOQ last night and he’s been excellent.

Lots to like. I have to admit I’m loving seeing the Rose haters get theirs. He’s clearly been a major reason for the transformation. Nothing proven but I really hope it continues.

talk about how Harden was the tertiary option and would never be able to replicate his Thunder stats as a team’s star.

Yes, that is 100% accurate. Harden was just a guy benefitting from playing in Westbrook and Durant’s shadow.

from danvt on friday…

Of all the Collison, Teague, Hill PG chatter I’d say that Rose has one thing in his favor. At his best he was better than any of those guys. Yes, he’s produced less well since his injuries. He’s got to show that he’s all the way back. This is an audition year for him. Phil bet on a long shot but it was a one year bet. He should not get an extension unless the team wins fifty games and pushes a playoff series to at least six games. (Obviously he can’t ride coat tails either). Rose has showed signs of dynamic talent. If he is the Derrick Rose of old, we go at least 3-2 on this trip. Otherwise, we are truly, as BC wrote, a mediocre team.

If we win fifty, I can see the melo/noah/rose core staying and hoping for the continued improvement of our otherwise quite young roster. Otherwise, I hope Phil goes another direction starting with letting Rose go this summer. I personally am rooting for him though. I like his no nonsense attitude. I like how he’s nowhere near satisfied with the teams performance and isn’t afraid to get in guy’s faces. I LIKE his game. So, GO Knicks! Make the haters pay. All we got is what’s on our plate, folks!

hey danvt…
sorry for the blast from the past – but, this has been stuck in my head for a couple of days…

so, it seems like you have a pretty decent grasp on reality (not too suggest others here don’t)…so, the knicks continue at roughly this pace, d-rose the same…the end of january comes and we need to make a decision as to whether to extend rose or not: do you do it; and, does 25 million a year sound like a “fair” bargain (referencing recent point guard salaries under the new cap)?

if you don’t do it…what’s a possible better option for next year and at what price?

@159 – My post was in response to Ras1980 who said: “This team is one KP injury away from sucking so bad.”

Spurs, Jazz, 90s Bulls, OKC, GSW, Nash/Stoudemire SSOL Suns, early Howard-era Orlando

The Celtics, Lakers, and Heat won by free agent acquisitions. But that *still* doesn’t mean that they’re on equal footing. And that’s because for free agency to work you have to get Lebron or Kobe or Shaq or KG on your team to have a shot at beating the low cost homegrown talent. Maybe if we traded for three legit superstars that would work, but that’s not open to us, and it’s very rarely open to any team. Moreover, it’s not sustainable; I’d rather be the Spurs and be good for almost 20 years.

I’d rather be the Spurs and be good for almost 20 years.

You make it sound like that shit just happens all the time. They are literally the only team like this is in the post FA world

Owen and Jowels clinging to an Under estimation of Harden from 2012…..classic. Yeah suck it “optimists”! You were wrong about James Harden. Shhh no more Rose talk.

Thought Experiment: NBA expands # of teams and you are hired as GM of one of the new teams. Let’s say you were gifted a 21yo C/F player who you absolutely knew (take this as a given) would be at least as good as Nowitzki and would follow his improvement curve. He’s the only player on your team at the moment and you would have the luxury of building around him any way you want. What strategy would you follow?

@Geo

Thanks for the shout out. I guess my preference would be to wait until the season is in the books. If Derrick plays like he did last night and we win a couple of games in the ECF, sure, give him max-ish money and years. Why not? I’d sign up for competitive with a punchers chance for three years. Years three and four of Lee, Melo, Noah, Rose, maybe they have the makings of a solid bench and the kids take over. Duncan, Manu, Parker have worked within a team concept as their games have matured.

I worry, because Knicks…, that we have a Marbury moment where he declares himself the best PG in the NBA and we go on to lose ten in a row. Then, obviously you let him walk.

Scary to think Rose becomes a force of nature and then walks but I think it’s a chance worth taking rather than locking it in before we know that we’re actually better than a .500 team. I think team success is the bottom line.

Mets did a great job with Cespedes last winter (and maybe this winter too). They knew they had no offense without him but also knew how far they were willing to go in negotiations. They waited it out and got him for their #. It paid off as they went, briefly, to the playoffs but there would have been not even a brief appearance without him. He’s probably a safer stock than Rose. Right now Phil holds the cards and Rose still has a lot to prove. If it gets sweaty that would be a good thing. I hope we’d all be convinced by January but that would take a pretty amazing and consistent run by Rose. I am rooting for it.

True, they’re currently one of a kind, but that’s partly my point: the Spurs are proof that you can continually reload around 2 or 3 young foundational players ( Parker Ginobili and Duncan; we have one so far in KP) so long as you draft well and make savvy under market free agent acquisitions–which is exactly what I recommended. I recommended it because the Spurs have been the most successful team in American men’s professional sports for the past two decades.

Everyone should be emulating the Spurs unless they can acquire KG, Ray Allen, or Shaq or Lebron in a trade or free agency. We’re currently doing neither, so our ceiling is the 50-ish win Atlanta Hawks

danvt with the nerves of steel 🙂

no extension for rose by february and try to possibly resign him this summer…

that actually sounds pretty reasonable – but, man, that sure doesn’t sound like the knicks…

This is a funny place. When we lose it’s “5, 4, 3.. Theo (or whatever negative poster that gets your goat) should be posting up a storm”, Derrick Rose has a good game and we have a near 200 post thread of gloat posts. Sigh.

DanVT has the best negotiating strategy if we are actually interested in signing Rose, I think. But it gives me pause because of how weak this free agent class is where if we have standards we’ll likely just be outbid. Since I’m not too keen on Rose, I’m fine with that outcome. Let’s pay him on the basis of real production over 82 games plus a playoff series or two.

@ 191- I believe that is because the negative posters dominate this board during the off season and pre season and whenever we lose. I believe there are a lot of silent positive supporters who now feel empowered to speak their minds.

People just can’t stay realistic.

What was the deal with Kyle not playing last night? Injuries? Some matchup thing?

POWER TO THE PEOPLE (positive, negative and all those shades of folks that fall between)!!!

i’m glad i’m not the gm silky – i’d sign him to the extension and hope for the best (yeah, what good has ever happened with the knicks and that particular strategy)…

hard to make present, future decisions without being weighed down by all the failures of the past…

But a big portion of the “anti-Rose sentiment” was that he was unlikely to make it through an entire season. And if he did, we might actually resign him to a long term contract. So we were better off keeping younger players with attractive contracts like Lopez and Grant. Even as well as Rose is playing lately, the downside of this deal is still very much in play.

I have no clue why signing Rose to a contract is a horrible idea if he gets through the season unscathed and plays well. That would be 3 consecutive seasons without a recurrence of knee issues and an increased percentage of games played in each of those seasons.

And honestly what the fuck is attractive about Jerian Grant? If the Bulls shopped him around what would they get for him? A protected 2nd rounder?

@danvt –

I worry, because Knicks…, that we have a Marbury moment where he declares himself the best PG in the NBA and we go on to lose ten in a row. Then, obviously you let him walk.

It’s a valid fear. Most big FA signings are dangerous because they are both long-term and big-bucks. Thing is, Marbury was a straight-on wack-job (please don’t make me scour the Internet for videos of him eating vasoline again). Rose might be a bad dude (see rape trial) but he isn’t insane.

I think a better comparison is Linsanity. Had the Knicks signed made him an offer during the season, history might be quite different now.

I think a better comparison is Linsanity. Had the Knicks signed made him an offer during the season, history might be quite different now.

that’s interesting Go Ny – different, good or bad?

@186 – Zanzibar Re:Thought Experiment

I would surround him with wily vets with pedigree that teach him how to become a great pro and add good pieces, over time, in the draft. Kinda like having KP and trading for former MVP Rose and signing the high-energy Noah.

There’s no question that Rose is playing better than the naysayers expected. There is also no disputing that his recent play is better than his first few games, and nothing he is currently doing seems unsustainable if he stays healthy. At his current level of play (i.e. his play overall since we were 3-6), he’s in the second level (top 11-20) starting PGs. But 2 questions remain: 1) will he avoid injury issues for the rest of this season and hopefully playoffs, and 2) if yes, will he be re-signed to a near-max, long term deal? I, for one hope the answers are 1) yes and 2) hell no. But if we have success with him this year, other FA PGs might take notice (Chris Paul, anyone?)

In consideration of Rose’s better-than-expected play, it’s fair to say right now that essentially getting Holiday and a 2nd rounder for Grant makes the trade less of a shit-show than if either Rose totally sucked or got hurt, or Holiday was not a rotation player, or Grant was one. At this point, the trade seems like it benefited both teams. I, for one, realize that while Lopez is a decent starting C, he was easier to replace than a PG of Rose’s current level of production (again, since we were 3-6) was to acquire given the market conditions in June. It’s easier to find a Kyle O’Quinn than a Derrick Rose at this level.

In consideration of Rose’s better-than-expected play, it’s fair to say right now that essentially getting Holiday and a 2nd rounder for Grant makes the trade less of a shit-show than if either Rose totally sucked or got hurt, and Holiday was not a rotation player, or Grant was one. At this point, the trade seems like it benefited both teams. I, for one, realize that while Lopez is a decent starting C, he was easier to replace than a PG of Rose’s current level of production (again, since we were 3-6) was to acquire given the market conditions in June. It’s easier to find a Kyle O’Quinn than a Derrick Rose at this level.

Great post.

The fact that you got Holiday and a 2 for Grant is amazing in itself alone. Rose for Lopez is a toss up and as you said, the big man play is far easier to find

The fact that you got Holiday and a 2 for Grant is amazing in itself alone. Rose for Lopez is a toss up and as you said

If we gonna sign Rose after this season as some here are suggesting, Holiday is probably gone.

I don’t think we have capspace to keep him.

Grant for a second rounder seems OK for me.

We have EB rights on Holiday. I think that will be enough to keep him regardless of what happens with Rose.

I don’t know why people are in love with Holiday BTW.

.66 WS/48, 11.7 PER, .522 TS%

He’s OK on defense and can hit a 3PT shot. Like a 27 y.o. Galloway.

Bigs who can’t a) shoot the 3 , and b) guard the high PnR (i.e. switch and close out on perimeter shooters or prevent penetration) are not the asset they once were. Rolo and Mozgov are two good examples, maybe even Bogut. Seems like everyone is going small at the end of games, including us, and those guys are simply not versatile enough to make teams pay for doing it.

O’Quinn and Noah aren’t great, either, but at least they are above average passers at the 5. But I think we go small more and more at the end of games (if you can cal a 7’3″ guy small!)

@206, he’s a solid rotation player who is long, runs the floor, rebounds and guards the perimeter. He’s not great by any stretch, but definitely great value at $1 mill. Galloway’s a great comparison…which is why I said all along that Galloway was a dime a dozen and wasn’t sorry to see him go. If only we let Lance go (although he has looked a tiny bit better of late, but I hate the look of his game, maybe irrationally even!)

I also love the way that Jennings and Rose are closing games together. Neither is very efficient, but they do add a ball-handling/quickness dimension that seems to work well with Melo and KP. Jennings was AWESOME in the 4th quarter last night!

He’s OK on defense and can hit a 3PT shot. Like a 27 y.o. Galloway.

Except he’s an athletic, long-armed 6-6 Version of Galloway who can guard 3 positions……

My only fear is that you can’t expect that awesomeness from Jennings on a nightly basis at all, but while it lasts is wonderful to watch!

I also love the way that Jennings and Rose are closing games together

Yeah I was one of the first to advocate for this a few weeks ago and my best visions were realized last night. Rose is definitely a glorified 2 guard so im happy when Jennings is out there with him

@Farfa

Yeah, Jennings is a total wild card, but he amuses me greatly and I love him for it.

There challenge of building a great team is one of fitting more talent under the cap than other teams. It doesn’t really matter all that much how GSW got their talent or how OKC or San Antonio go their talent other than to say that it wasn’t through signing non-superstar veteran free agents. On the other hand, for Jackson, non-superstar veteran free agents have been Jackson’s white whale. If there’s anything we can say Jackson intended to do, it’s clear cap space to sign veteran free agents. He hunts after the cap space to sign them as though they are the opposite of what they are.

The way you follow this path is by refusing to overpay for talent (i.e. sign or trade for veteran non-superstar free agents) until adding those players gives you a reasonable chance of winning 55+ games.

Can we all agree that these things are true? Can we also all agree that Jackson doesn’t seem to believe these things are true?

I imagine the response to this will be, “But we can get superstar free agents!” No. We can’t. We won’t be good enough and simultaneously have the cap space to sign superstar free agents if we keep signing non-superstar veteran free agents.

Now, Jackson has apparently learned a little bit. This past summer, he stopped giving out 1 year minimum contracts to young/unknown players (Kuzminskas, Plumlee, Ndour), but the vast majority of his resources, limited as they were in value, went towards non-superstar free agents.

That’s dead-end money.

The Knicks may win 45 games this season. Who knows? But if your ceiling is being the 12th best team in the league or whatever even after hitting the jackpot with a young player, that’s incredibly depressing, isn’t it?

And honestly what the fuck is attractive about Jerian Grant? If the Bulls shopped him around what would they get for him? A protected 2nd rounder?

Not much. Hes cheap and young. Point guards seem to take longer to develop, so what was the downside to keeping him? We’d be slightly worse?

@lavor

For sure! I love to see him and KOQ on the court together (and even better in the Garden). They are the emotional/swaggy sauce that makes the Knicks dish so delicious

Not much. Hes cheap and young. Point guards seem to take longer to develop, so what was the downside to keeping him? We’d be slightly worse?

Prefer having Holiday and another 2nd.

The Knicks may win 45 games this season. Who knows? But if your ceiling is being the 12th best team in the league or whatever even after hitting the jackpot with a young player, that’s incredibly depressing, isn’t it?

Haha, depressed? You are depressing yourself. Also I don’t think there are 11 teams better than the Knicks this year.

Cavs
Spurs
Warriors
Clippers
Rockets/Thunder/Utah (and these 3 teams are barely better and it may not be the case by the end of the season)

These are the only teams that are for sure better than the Knicks right now. Ill take that given that most of the teams are out west

@215

We’d miss the “Pudgy Sasha point guard – break glass in case of emergency” experience

Not much. Hes cheap and young. Point guards seem to take longer to develop, so what was the downside to keeping him? We’d be slightly worse?

Hes not good though. So what does cost or age have to do with it? And to be that shitty, he aint that young. Dante Exum is young

I don’t know why people are in love with Holiday BTW.

.66 WS/48, 11.7 PER, .522 TS%

He’s OK on defense and can hit a 3PT shot. Like a 27 y.o. Galloway.

Because to the optimist sports fan, potential will always trump current production. Just masturbate over what “could be” and dismiss “what is.” That’s how you do it.

Or we could bring back all the posts Jowles made about Westbrook, Walker et al

You know Westbrook’s career WS48 is still going to be .163, no matter how many MVP awards he wins this year, right? You realize that it’s possible that a player could be for years a solidly above-average, but sub-superstar-level player (and have lots of highlight reel plays to make you think he’s better than his middling efficiency stats suggest) and then improve, right?

You are the biggest hack on this board, and bringing up posts about 2012-13’s world beating Westbrook shooting stats (.532 TS%, virtually identical to Carmelo’s TS% this year) won’t change the fact that you are the site’s greatest con artist. Be mad, tho.

Because to the optimist sports fan, potential will always trump current production. Just masturbate over what “could be” and dismiss “what is.” That’s how you do it.

So you are saying having a taller more athletic Galloway is bad?

ER, even if they are the 8th best team, and they are trending downwards, and this is what you get as a result of the Phil Jackson team building philosophy after he gets the incredible break of drafting Porzingis… How does that make you feel? Like realistically, what is this team? Let’s be really generous and say 50 wins this season and a conference semis loss to Toronto or Cleveland…

Okay, next year, the entire starting lineup is on the downswing other than KP. Let’s give them 42 wins.

Next year, still tons of money invested in Lee (now 33), Noah (now 33), Melo (now 34)… even if that’s KP’s “I’m a superstar, bitches!” year, maybe he props the team up as a borderline playoff team.

What emotions does that provoke in you if not disappointment? You have to be pretty cynical about this team to be excited by that IMHO.

You are one of those prognosticators who thinks everything will go wrong for the Knicks and great for everyone else. You forgot the Knicks have draft picks and a fairly young bench. Nah none of these players can have a valuable impact. Nah. Also Derrick Rose is 28…

Because to the optimist sports fan, potential will always trump current production. Just masturbate over what “could be” and dismiss “what is.” That’s how you do it.

hmmmm, think i’ll head off to the rest room now to go enjoy a little “private” time and reflect on your statement…

oh yeah baby, big willy and kp for ever and ever…feels so good…

We don’t have holiday, he’s a free agent. The reason Holiday is good is that he’s so cheap.

Hes not good though. So what does cost or age have to do with it? And to be that shitty, he aint that young. Dante Exum is young

Because he’s young he might get better, and because he’s cheap it doesn’t hurt much to have him on the roster. He sucks, true, but so what?

So you are saying having a taller more athletic Galloway is bad?

Yes, a soon to be 28 y.o. Galloway earning 5 million per on a multi-year contract is not exactly good.

That’s like LT’s contract that we all would love to get rid of.

Gallo’s value was that 1) he’s young 2) he’s cheap.

For Holiday the ship has sailed for number 1 and next year he probably won’t be a minimum contract anymore.

I think Holiday is a serviceable rotation player. Not league average, probably, but above replacement value.

i had the knicks for 37 wins and all things being equal we’re probably on track for about 39 -40 now….

for all the good things rose has been doing his ws48 of .063 falls squarely in the middle of his 2nd year in the league and the last two seasons of production… which is about as good as you can expect for a deteriorated but healthy rose… the narrative surrounding him would be vastly different if we were only 10-14 and i’m pretty sure it will slowly change as the season progresses….

i’ve said this plenty previously but if we start giving oquinn major minutes that could drastically change our outlook and might make us a lock for a playoff spot instead of being on the fringe… he’s in his age 27 season with a career high ws48 of .164… that might regress some but i think it’s pretty clear that he’s the best option over noah or wily in the pecking order and it’s about time his role gets expanded..

Holy shit Galloway is 25. Again, That’s not that young. And for what it’s worth Galloway has actually played more NBA games than Holiday so he can improve just as much

You are one of those prognosticators who thinks everything will go wrong for the Knicks and great for everyone else. You forgot the Knicks have draft picks and a fairly young bench. Nah none of these players can have a valuable impact. Nah. Also Derrick Rose is 28…

What am I predicting will go wrong? My hypothetical says the Knicks win 50 this year and that KP will become a superstar. If I just went by health and the historical aging curves, Noah, Melo and Lee (and Rose) would all be likely to decline in a major major way in the next couple years. If Melo goes the way of Danny Granger, Lee goes the way of like every other player like Lee (i.e. role player guard in his early 30s), and Noah’s injuries become more and more of an impediment as his athleticism continues to dwindle, you’re talking about $80m (assuming we pay Rose what he’ll want) invested in like $35m of players. That might be a better case scenario for the Knicks since they’d get a high lotto pick, but it’s not one I’m imagining.

What i’m asking is even in this optimistic scenario that gives you your hope and optimism, are things really that good?

What i’m asking is even in this optimistic scenario that gives you your hope and optimism, are things really that good?

Yeah, your take here is extremely optimistic.

Holy shit Galloway is 25. Again, That’s not that young. And for what it’s worth Galloway has actually played more NBA games than Holiday so he can improve just as much

Don’t get me wrong Er, I’m not defending Gallo.

He’s having a bad year and I wouldn’t want him with his new contract.

I was just explaining why I don’t see the upside in signing Holiday after this season.

@MSA

But does every contract need to have upside? Let’s just say we give Holiday 3/18m and he continues to play at his current level. Is that such a horrible thing and if we wanted to get rid, would we need to give up assets to do so? I doubt it, but it’s subjective, so maybe you see it differently.

@236 Why not? He’s a fine 8th-9th man on a team.

Good point Lavor. These guys here will find fault with anything

The question is: is a .60 mediocrity worth 6M a year?

I’m not being rhetorical–it may be that in this inflated market that’s what somewhat below league average players get. I’m just not sure it’s worth it as opposed to finding a guy on the vet min again.

If you guys just keep saying, “They will find a fault with anything,” or “they are pessimistic”, i.e. attacking people’s credibility rather than their comments, there’s no room for discussion. Is that what you want?

Credibility has nothing to do with anything. You can say what you want. As I just did. And I feel like you and your like minded friends will find fault with just about everything the Knicks do. For fucks sake people deride the KP pick saying things like the Knicks lucked into it etc. or phil wasn’t indending to tank.

The thought of resigning one of our key bench cogs who has even started a couple of games is met with “hey look at his ws/48” fine but how is he playing with the team? how is he fitting into his role? Nah just straight to the negativity. He’s old (27) he’s played 145 NBA games !!! Not even 2 full seasons. He could turn into a steal if hes somewhere for more than a week. But nah fuck that har har har win shares FOH

If you guys just keep saying, “They will find a fault with anything,” or “they are pessimistic”, i.e. attacking people’s credibility rather than their comments, there’s no room for discussion. Is that what you want?

What discussion are we having? You think the Knicks future sucks and you’re depressed about it whereas I don’t feel that way at all. You’re entitled to feel however you want, but when you state unequivocally that the Knicks’ best case scenario is win 50 this year and decline no matter what moving forward it’s a discussion with a premise that seems loaded to favor your viewpoint.

There are plenty of paths that we can’t predict or foresee. That’s how the NBA works. 2 years ago if you told me the Knicks’ roster would look as it does now I wouldn’t have believed you. I don’t think we’re nearly as stuck into a horrible downward trajectory as you seem to believe.

The question is: is a .60 mediocrity worth 6M a year?

I’m not being rhetorical–it may be that in this inflated market that’s what somewhat below league average players get. I’m just not sure it’s worth it as opposed to finding a guy on the vet min again.

Could be true, but when a guy like Solomon Hill is getting 4/48m for the Jerome James, one good playoff series special, a 6m/yr contract for a rotation caliber wing that Holiday has played like seems fair.

But does every contract need to have upside? Let’s just say we give Holiday 3/18m and he continues to play at his current level. Is that such a horrible thing and if we wanted to get rid, would we need to give up assets to do so? I doubt it, but it’s subjective, so maybe you see it differently.

It’s not a horrible thing. This could be a very fair value for his production TBH.

But if we are really tied with a lineup of Rose, Lee, Melo, KP and Noah for the next 4 years, I belive we better find value on smaller contracts.

At 28 y.o. this is probably the best we will get from Holiday.

Wouldn’t be best to try invest in 3 young euros or dleaguers with the same money?

I don’t know. It just seem like a lateral move at best for me.

@MSA

You could be right. It’s very hard for me to really know what I’d feel comfortable with until seeing how this season plays out. I’m not tied to keeping anybody other than KP and Willy.

If you guys just keep saying, “They will find a fault with anything,” or “they are pessimistic”, i.e. attacking people’s credibility rather than their comments, there’s no room for discussion. Is that what you want?

whutcha want?
fat beats for my rides
mad clips for my nines
a ill posse
And my name up in lights, n-i-n-e

i don’t think anyone can find fault in a knicks fan being pessimistic…as good as things look at the moment – i’m still waiting for something to go wrong…

it’s gonna take more than one decent season (47 wins and a playoff series win) for the bad memories from the last 15 or so seasons to fade away…

i imagine one of the biggest obstacles phil faced in the first year or so was everyone’s “loser” mentality in the organization…self fulfilling failure…

I’m sorry if my comment came off as framing things as bad. I was trying to frame things optimistically! Give me a frame to start from. Let’s say the Knicks have a reasonable amount of good luck but no earth shattering luck (i.e. find a star in the middle/end of the draft, manage to convicne Chris Paul or some other true superstar to come, Hernangomez becomes a star)… Predict the win totals for this year and the following two.

If you think we should sign Holiday, a 27 year old playing good basketball for the first time but think a 24 year old is too old to ever turn into something useful you’re not making the right connections

@latke

I feel like almost every time I respond to a comment of yours it’s in vehement disagreement and I take a dickish tone, which is usually not my intent. As far as I’m concerned it’s very hard for me to be discouraged by what I’m seeing on the floor and their flexibility moving forward.

I can understand and get why people were and are down on the Noah contract. The backside always looked sketchy and nothing so far makes me think it’ll be better than expected. Other than that I’m fine with the contracts on the roster because I think they are all movable in trade if we want or need to.

It’s extremely hard for me to project this team moving forward because I’ve only seen these guys play together for 24 games. They look like a playoff team to me this season, but as far as ceilings moving forward or paths to progress further it’s a little early for me to say. What I like is that we have all of our hedges (1st round picks) against any downside risk and KP is likely to be a Knick for awhile giving us a longer window to put the pieces around him.

TL;DR I have a tough time giving you an answer for the hypothetical, but I don’t think things are that bad!

Nah I never said Grant was too old. I rarely bring up age. I bring it up in response to others. My point about Grant is that he’s not that young. He’s 24 not a guy fresh off a 1 and done

@248

signing holiday if keeps this up to a long term deal would be like signing lance thomas last year… it is something you will most likely immediately regret….

it makes zero sense to lock up money longterm on bench players.. let alone bench players who only have one ok year after 6 years in the league…

signing holiday if keeps this up to a long term deal would be like signing lance thomas last year… it is something you will most likely immediately regret….

I’m not regretting signing Lance. He had plantar fascitis in both feet and a sprained ankle. His contract is fine if he plays close to the level he was at last year.

This is a league where Allen Crabbe is getting $18m/yr. Bench players are getting paid.

@lavor

I don’t think you take a dickish tone. Impassioned!

I’m not really asking you to predict so much as tell me what would make you happy without thinking, “God damn! We got all the lucky breaks!” What future could I have predicted that would have made you think, “yeah, that’s fair”?

I like that we have all our hedges too. My concern is not so much that we’ve cornered ourselves and cannot recover for a long time as has been the case in the past. It’s more that we seem IMHO to be on a trajectory where we’re going to hover in that middle area of 30-35 wins if things go bad and 45-50 wins if things go great for a couple seasons.

That last year of Noah’s and Lee’s deal is likely to be pretty bad for us. Then, we’re gonna leave that period with a bunch of middling draft picks and a bunch of cap space and not much else.

That trajectory can be changed, but Jackson hasn’t shown much flexibility other than when he’s been absolutely forced into changing paths (i.e. when we started the 14/15 season 5-36).

I’ll also add that when you are pursuing present success, you will continue to invest in short term value type signings. We signed Noah and Lee long term last summer. There’s a good chance, especially if we manage homecourt in the playoffs (not that I expect this!), that we end up signing Rose and Jennings and and MLE player who are all in or at the end of hteir primes. So it’s not just about the contracts we have now but about the choices you have to make to sustain being “pretty good” and how they affect your future.

I don’t know why people are in love with Holiday BTW.

.66 WS/48, 11.7 PER, .522 TS%

He’s OK on defense and can hit a 3PT shot. Like a 27 y.o. Galloway.

Because to the optimist sports fan, potential will always trump current production. Just masturbate over what “could be” and dismiss “what is.” That’s how you do it.

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wait…

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@199 –

think a better comparison is Linsanity. Had the Knicks signed made him an offer during the season, history might be quite different now.

that’s interesting Go Ny – different, good or bad?

Hmmmmm. Different for sure. Butterfly effect. I think better but it’s too random. We may have been too good and missed out on KP. We had a really good team that next year and lost in the EC semi-finals to Indiana and who lost to Miami and LeBron/Wade/Bosh who went on to win it all.

“perverted” bandwagoners ????
i have the impression that most knicks-pessimists don’t really care to watch the knicks games but only read the box score/stats to bash the team till it become a contender…

Unlike past moves, there is no hard ceiling on this team for the foreseeable future. We have all our draft picks, a young budding superstar on a rookie deal, another young piece, and 3 years tied up in Noah and Lee, and 2 years tied up in Melo, Lance and KOQ. When all of these guys expire, KP will be 24. Which was Ewing’s age his second year, when he put up a whopping WS48 of .075 in 63 games.

Thankfully, we don’t have max money tied up in Monroe, LMA or Conley.
Thankfully, we drafted Porzingis instead of anyone after him and 2 of the 3 guys before him.

But yeah, if only we had kept fucking Robin Lopez, what a future we’d have!

I don’t think we need to re-sign Holiday. He’s a valuable player at his CURRENT contract but I don’t think there’s a reason to pay him even 6M/year…

I feel like we can find another similar guy for less money in the draft or FA. Phil has actually done quite well rounding out the roster.

.66 WS/48, 11.7 PER, .522 TS%

By citing these statistics and saying because he’s below average in them he’s bad, you are essentially saying that because he doesn’t have the output of a starting guard, he’s bad. But he’s not a starting guard, he’s a role player in the rotation, and maybe in the rotation only because Thomas is not. He’s not getting paid like a starter either. For his role he’s good, and for his salary he’s excellent.

Where’d reub go? The first 150 or so posts were pretty fun to read.

@229 I can’t do this full time

Unreason, I don’t know how to do the confidence intervals, but I think what are called non-parametric statistics could help. These statistics don’t assume any underlying distribution. For example, the Pythagorean WL logic basically assumes that close games are chance and random and large margin games are better at showing the real capability of a team. Sometimes you can test with parametric statistics of the low margin games are random or not. For example, if the Knicks are three and zero in toss up games, there is a 12.5% chance of that being a chance result (50% to the third power). That’s not quite statistically significant at the 10% level.

For what it’s worth, I remember Phil’s Chicago teams winning more close games against us than t g eye “should have”. In retrospect, I don’t think that was chance. They played what Phil calls system basketball that moved the ball and the players looking for a good undefended shot rather looking to get the ball to their best player. Not too many teams do that and it helps in close games. It could result in beating Pythagoras.

Because they think he gives them value relative to the other offers they might field.

You have to look at the salary in context.

If Holiday gets 6 mil next summer he will be tied with LT for the 5th highest salary on the team.

Is that really the production you expect for such money?

Because if you can spend the 6M on someone better while replacing that value with someone cheaper, why wouldn’t you do that?

Unless I’m misunderstanding the situation, we need to keep Holiday’s cap hold in order to go over the cap to resign him. So by keeping him, we’re wasting cap space, no?

His cap hold is really cheap so renouncing his rights would gain us extremely minimal cap space at best. You can also take the view that if the contract is something you think is movable it makes him an asset in hand that you can move in trade later on.

If Holiday gets 6 mil next summer he will be tied with LT for the 5th highest salary on the team.

That’s a meaningless stat. You have players wayyyy below value in Oquinn and KP and Willy.

Because if you can spend the 6M on someone better while replacing that value with someone cheaper, why wouldn’t you do that?

Sure. Who?

That’s a meaningless stat. You have players wayyyy below value in Oquinn and KP and Willy.

Exactly!!!

If you can have better value with lower salary why settle with him at 6 mil?

We are not talking about a starter.

Exactly!!!!

Who is that better value and will we have the cap space for them?

We’re also not talking about a german shepherd.

@er

Sure. Who?

ask the spurs. Whenever a dude gets big with them who isn’t a star, they either get him to take a discount or they move on and find the next Boban Marjanovic or Danny Green or Patty Mills or Jonathan Simmons or George Hill or Beno Udrih or Cory Joseph or Gary Neal… Or Kawhi Leonard or Manu Ginobili or Tony Parker. All these guys were drafted late first round or later or were signed as FAs after their previous teams didn’t give them a chance or after going undrafted.

There are few issues with this strategy:

1) As GM, you will always take more criticism for failing with unknowns that you tried to get at a bargain than failing with a known quantity who you paid market value for.

2) You actually have to create opportunities for these lesser known players to get real NBA minutes. That means not wasting minutes on the arron afflalos and derrick williams and derrick roses and justin holidays and brandon jennings. You have to give minutes to your unknowns, and some of them will disappoint, especially if your pipeline hasn’t been flowing for long like the Knicks’.

3) You have to be willing to trade replaceable guys like Justin Holiday (when you’re smart enough to sign them for multiple years) to get younger even if it means there’s a risk you will not be quite as good the following year to replenish your pipeline.

These are all things that Jackson has shown the occasional interest in. Kuzminskas, the second rounders, Plumlee and Ndour’s contracts. If he keeps swinging in that direction, things could look great for the KNicks in a few years, but he’s made at least as many choice that show he’s not committed to that kind of sustainable team building model.

If we don’t spend every single penny on Rose we will have cap space.

Where the fuck is the “discount for playing in NY”?

Here is a list of guards in the 20s sorted by WS/48.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=20&age_max=29&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&year_min=2017&year_max=2017&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&force%3Apos_is=1&c6mult=1.0&order_by=ws_per_48

I suggest you start from the top.

Or you could try in the D-League or Euroleague.

@277

That’s a great breakdown of how the Spurs do scouting… but how replicable is it? The Spurs are one of the best teams in the league at player development — they taught Kawhi a jumper from scratch. Players also take discounts because the Spurs organization has no parallel in the league.

The Knicks have a really good track record of unearthing value from Europe but I don’t think I’d describe it as a steady pipeline that reliably produces and replaces players.

One one hand, I can see the reasoning behind such an approach. On the other hand, I don’t think it’s that simple to “DISRUPT SCOUTING” and copy the Spurs with the same results.

So if we don’t spend all of our money on our point guards who are both expiring contracts there’s a chance that we can find better value in the backup off guard by letting the one we have go. Ok.

The Knicks are in a better position now than any time since before the Melo trade. Not great, but much, much better. For all of his warts, Phil has been a better GM than anyone in the Jim Dolan era, maybe even going back to the championship era. Low bar, but is this even disputable?

Re: team building

There is so much variance in the team building process that the only principle I’ve settled on is “don’t trade away first round draft picks.” A second might be “don’t do dumb shit.”

The Warriors lucked out when they extended Curry at far below market value because of his injury history. They drafted Klay with the 11th pick, outside the lottery. They drafted Draymond Green in the 2nd round. They traded Monta Ellis for Andrew Bogut. They also traded four draft picks for Iguodala once they were already a 50 win playoff team.

San Antonio, as latke described, has probably the best scouting and player development of any NBA team. They reliably replace their role players year after year. They also drafted three superstars who all took less money to stay because of the quality of the organization.

Miami schemed their way to the greatest single-season free agent haul of all time.

Cleveland won the draft lottery three times and LeBron decided to go back to Ohio.

Dallas surrounded Dirk Nowitzki with just the right supporting cast of veteran free agents.

If we expand to non-championship teams: The Clippers traded the outcomes of three first rounders (Eric Gordon, Eric Bledsoe, and one other first) for Chris Paul and J.J. Redick. Blake Griffin was a first rounder. DeAndre Jordan was a 2nd rounder.

OKC hit on four first rounders: Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, and Harden.

If there’s a discernable pattern, someone inform me because I can’t figure one out.

paying bench players market rate is not an efficient use of cap space…. their talents are easily replaceable on marginal commitments…. that is why they are bench players…. and we will most likely be having noah and thomas already anchoring our cap space for the next 3 years….

if this was a playoff contender… then a gaping hole at the backup 2 might justify it…. but we’re not… we have a giant hole at pg that needs to be addressed in the offseason….

@282

By my entirely subjective opinion, if the Knicks are above .500 at the All-Star break, he’ll have outdone Donnie Walsh; if the Knicks make the second round of the playoffs, he’ll have outdone Glen Grunwald.

He hasn’t done anything worse than either trading a first rounder for Bargnani or selling the farm for Melo.

Like you said, low bar.

The best quality that Phil Jackson has as a GM is his immunity to Dolan’s meddling.

@285

This is an honest question I ask out of curiosity: are bench players that fungible? Can an average NBA front office reliably replace production from letting bench players walk before they sign market rate deals? Some have suggested it’s as easy as looking up a seasonal WS/48 ranking — which I can see the reasoning, but it’s hard for me to see how it’s that simple.

@287 it’s not easy, but the bottom line is, you should never squander too much cap space on a player that plays a role that is easier to fill. Holiday’s role is easily replaced. Brandon Jennings’ is not.

Depends on what you mean by bench player.

Shit, back to the drawing board.

@290. I washed the drawing board and gave up and went home. I’m going to enjoy this season. You guys can have at it with your hypotheticals and easily replaced 6m dollar players. Like Allen Crabbe right lol

Phil cares more about Knicks’ record this season than he does about the Knicks’ future in 3 or 4 years.

That is so obviously untrue. It’s the same absolutely wrong argument that Latke made, that Phil doesn’t value flexibility. I’ve posted this before, but it’s very clear from every move except the Melo Mega Max (which I think Dolan had a lot to do with) that Phil values flexibility above all. He wants options, just like he wants an offense with options. He does not want to be locked into one path. Trading for Rose left him tremendous flexibility, because if Rose is good (and still ambulatory) at the end of the season he can sign him. If he isn’t, he has around $25M to use on another PG. If he doesn’t get that PG (like CP3 or George Hill), he has tradeable assets and a first round pick. Other than that last year for Noah, none of his moves got in the way of that flexibility, unless you think having 3-and-D CLee for four years at below-market value kills flexibility. Every contract is tradeable now and next year except possibly Noah and certainly Melo.

I’m not arguing that his moves are either good or bad. I’m simply saying that, completely separate from an evaluation of the actual roster moves, Phil is executing on one path without closing the possibility of another.

Sometimes in order to move forward you need to close doors. But USUALLY it’s a good idea not to close any doors unless you have to. I am certain this is Phil’s philosophy, and USUALLY it’s a good philosophy. Sometimes it isn’t: signing injury-prone Steph Curry to a long deal took away some of the Warriors’ flexibility, and could have backfired if Curry didn’t get past the injuries, but instead was a risk that paid off beautifully. But USUALLY staying flexibility is part of long-term success.

@Geo: yeah NY was well repped last night. Listen to the very end of the game: you can hear cheers from some parts of the crowd.

My theory on this season (give this a shot):

If we were to compare the path and trajectory of this team since Phil was hired, I would argue that it would mirror a more traditional rebuild – it just doesn’t look like it bc instead of loading up on young, high-ceiling talent, we got one proven star, a young transcendent talent, and reasonable gambles on reclamation projects to bounce back to career norms. Two of those projects have contracts that end after the season.

This has been echoed before but it really bears repeating: when Phil took over, he was looking at having ONE first round pick btwn 2014-2016. He gambled on creating a .500 team in ’14-’15, and used the draft pick he had that year to hedge. And when he ultimately was given the ONE shot to nail the 2015 draft, he smashed it out the park by getting the 2nd best player with the 4th pick. In my eyes, that was Jackson’s biggest shot to potentially change the course of the franchise and he NAILED IT.

While we’re all arguing about Derrick Rose, Kristaps became the best rim protector in the league. Like literally the best FG% allowed when he’s near the play of guys defending more than 5 shots per game. (H/t to Jared Dublin on his podcast today). Also, check out the ages of the best rim protectors. The big man position is back.

And by the way Jowles- I’m not picking random games to make my point about Rose. It’s literally the last 15 games which is the max amount of games back in the NBA.com stats site filters. But thanks for flailing away as usual.

I have not been a big fan of Phil Jackson the GM outside of the Kristaps pick, but credit is due to him for finding some diamonds in the rough (KOQ who was getting zero interest in FA, Hernangomez, Kuzminskas) and maintaining pretty reasonable flexibility going forward. We have a pretty reasonable group of young guys, old guys, and mid career guys, and we have all our first round picks. The next big decision is Rose, and it’s not as if it’s all up to him- Rose may choose not to extend, to hit the market, etc.

And by the way Jowles- I’m not picking random games to make my point about Rose. It’s literally the last 15 games which is the max amount of games back in the NBA.com stats site filters. But thanks for flailing away as usual.

Oh right you definitely don’t have a pre-existing narrative about Rose that you clutch to like it’s your own personal life’s defining teleology

Actually I precisely did NOT have a narrative about what to expect from Rose unlike others here. The only idea I had was that what someone did coming off injuries does not doom them to the same things in the future if he is healthy. It’s a good rule of statistics- if your sample is not applicable, then it’s not worth much in your analysis.

Having an open mind about things and having an optimistic (but realistic) view IS my personal life’s philosophy though. So you’re sort of right about that.

Oh right you definitely don’t have a pre-existing narrative about Rose that you clutch to like it’s your own personal life’s defining teleology

Wait, are you trying to say that YOU don’t have a pre-existing narrative about Rose that you clutch to?

Please.

When I look at what Phil did this year we start with the fact that he improved this team with no draft picks. None. Zero. Yet there are 5 rookies on this roster. (Willy, Kuz, Baker, Ndour and Plumlee). We also have Randle in the D-League. Is this team better than last year’s team? If the answer is yes, how much better? That’s how good Phil has been.

If the nuggets aren’t tanking from the get go, Mike Malone should probably be fired in year one. And the Nuggets broadcast get more unwatchable every year. Play Jokic FFS.

if phil valued flexibility then i don’t think the noah, lee or LT deals happen… i think he either got a bit impatient or melo got a bit impatient and so wanted to field a ‘respectable’ team to try and compete right now and what resulted was his best attempt at it….

@304 – it’s entirely likely that our improvement will be mostly explained by just KP’s and giving oquinn more minutes… there were a lot of changes but the net impact of those have been fairly minimal… if we brought everyone back and just signed jennings to start at pg with calderon backing up… i have no doubt we’d end up with a similar record…

From a story on NBA.com about the Wiz:

“That left Washington with a lot of cap room and a rapidly dwindling list of quality free agents on which to spend its money.”

This is part of what some don’t understand. No, Durant didn’t want to meet with us – or DC, for example. DC is a good example, as the Wiz have gone from a solid playoff team to…not so solid.

I know our bench was widely derided early in the year (mostly outside of knickerblogger), but Phil brought in 3 quality players in Willy, Kuz, and Jennings, resigned Lance for not much, traded for Holliday, and kept O’Quinn. Those 6 add up to $21M, and they are at least a league-average bench with room to grow. The Wiz…signed Mahanmi for $64M? Andrew Nicholson for $26M? Their Euro is Tomas Satoransky, and their trade was for Trey Burke. Those 4 players make $27M.

Or take another move: I know people aren’t excited about Lee, but he plays good on-the-ball defense and is in the top 5 in the league on 3-pointers. That’s pretty much the definition of 3-and-D, a valuable player in this league, and we got a good deal on him. DC re-signed Beal for the max.

Point being that these things don’t happen in a vacuum. Other teams are trying to sign and trade for players too. No one compares with the Spurs, but they aren’t the only measuring stick.

if phil valued flexibility then i don’t think the noah, lee or LT deals happen

Seriously? Lee’s below-market deal and LT’s $8M are handcuffs? Get a grip.

And as for the “Philly has it right, they just haven’t been lucky,” and the “we should jettison all the vets and build a young team around KP,” how about what KP himself thinks?

1. He WOULD NOT MEET the Sixers. He did not want to be drafted by them.

2. He has publicly said how helpful it is to have Melo on the team to take the heat.

Given that he wouldn’t even try out for the Sixers before the draft, I believe KP when he says it helps to have experienced players around him. If you want to build a team around someone, doesn’t it make sense to listen to what he says makes him comfortable???

wow, great stuff today, reub steals the show with the whole “this is your life” thing…

rama”s (@295) and cdiggy’s (@297) break down of phil’s team building strategy makes a whole lot of sense…

then again – the fine columbian, the cuervo gold…

dang rama, you working the night shift somewhere – out in hawaii???

you can sign vets and not sacrifice maneuverability…. signing lee, jennings, kuz… keeping rolo… let LT walk… sign bench players to a few one year deals… probably would have resulted in a very similar year… the net impact on future flexibility is about 10mm with rolo as a trade chip instead of noah’s untradeable contract…

i’ll be happy to eat crow if we finish in the 48 win range… but a)it’s not likely.. and b)it’s unclear if that’s even worth the long term commitments…

You can also trade contracts. Just because you sign a player doesn’t mean you’re attached to them for the whole time. If the contracts aren’t albatrosses they can be moved and some may even return assets.

Does anyone think we’ll have a chance to draft a young PG project next year? I’d much rather have a backup plan for developing a talented 1 guard if we sign Rose.

Thanks Lavor. I appreciate your insight and understanding of the game.

djphan, I hear you about RoLo, who I think is underrated and always will be. (Though by the end of last year I think Knickerblogger had come to appreciate him.) I have always LOVED Noah’s game, and yet I still hated the fourth year on his contract, and am worried by what we’ve seen so far this year. But our guards were absolutely terrible last year, so I don’t see how we’d have a “very similar year” with Grant and RoLo instead of Rose and Noah. And once we traded Lopez for Rose, we needed to sign Noah. The moves were related.

Whether trading for Rose was a good idea is a long thread we’ll come back to at least a thousand times more this season, but there’s no way you can argue we’d be having a similar season with Jennings and Grant. Jennings is highly entertaining – especially when he’s passing to the other team – but he’s in his ideal role. (I’d joke “same for Grant, on the bench” but that would be mean.)

By the way, another underappreciated C: Bogut. I thought this stat was interesting: “The Mavs have allowed just 95.3 in Bogut’s 400 minutes on the floor and 112.0 in 714 minutes with him off the floor.” Some team is going to pick him up and make a nice playoff push in a couple months. Didn’t he go out with another injury during last year’s playoffs? I wonder if the Dubs are going to be a little thin against the Cavs front line this year. (I also wonder if it will matter…)

God, I want Jokic so bad. Its insane the Nuggets are playing him off the bench.

What the hell is happening with that team? If they’re tanking, they aren’t doing a great job. If they actually think Jokic isn’t a starter – never mind their best player – than Malone isn’t the coach I thought he was.

Geo-n-SoCal, I’m in NYC, a few blocks away from the mecca. Definitely working the late shift…

If they actually think Jokic isn’t a starter – never mind their best player – than Malone isn’t the coach I thought he was.

Ahem…

According to BSN Denver, Malone said this about the expectations regarding Jokic, “You guys got to understand, he’s not going to be the same player he was last year,” Malone said after Jokic scored eight points, grabbed 12 rebounds, struggled defensively, but notably closed the fourth quarter and overtime for Denver. “Gallo was out, Wilson Chandler was out. Last two months of the season we played our young guys, we played them 35 minutes a night almost. We’re healthy, we have guys playings, so everybody stop expecting Nikola Jokic to be something he’s not. I think it’s unfair to him.

Denver’s front office consistently lets it’s coaches down by holding on to guys for way too long and quite frankly not figuring out what they’re doing.

Denver’s front office consistently lets it’s coaches down by holding on to guys for way too long and quite frankly not figuring out what they’re doing.

I still believe they should trade for Boogie Cousins and hope he grows a brain in a newer, more laid back Rocky Mountain environment.

@316 – i dont think we’ll get anything of value for LT or noah… unless we’re taking on something arguably worse…

@319 – i honestly do think we’d be in a similar situation if we had jennings and someone like tim frazier… or even kept galloway… or we probably could’ve just traded for rose with calderon and grant if we just waited out the bulls…

i mean it’s not farfetched to have a pretty similar offseason but just say no to LT and noah and come away with a similar team… this is just not in hindsight either… i was harping on the timing of the rose deal and the LT and noah deals from the very beginning….

@317 – if we get in the lottery i think there’s a decent chance one of the ok pg’s falls to us… fultz and ball are the diamonds but i’m pretty sure they go top 5… dennis smith is rated #2 on DX but he’s overrated and probably goes mid 1st rd or out of it entirely… frank ntilikina is also probably a bit overrated…. but i’m betting those are the names we’ll be looking at but they don’t rate highly statistically or from the eye test…

the good target is deaaron fox.. currently rated #10 and i think he stays in that area… he rates similarly to mike conley coming out with a weaker shot… he’s worth missing the playoffs for in my eyes… since the draft after the lottery takes a steep nosedive…

we probably could’ve just traded for rose with calderon and grant if we just waited out the bulls…

Yeah, probably. I’m sure they would have made that trade. Of course, it’s at least $12M away from being possible, as the salaries didn’t come close to matching. But sure.

As for LT being tradeable — never mind basketball, have you ever WALKED? Imagine every step feeling like your feet are burning. Plantar fasciitis hurts like a mother. No way you could play through it…except LT apparently was trying to do so. Now that he seems to be healthy, care to give him, you know, maybe a few weeks before you decide he’s terrible and untradeable?

awwwwww, right on rama – i hope you have better luck/restraint than me staying off the forums at work…

couple of blocks from the mecca…man, it’s been a long time – but, I remember even at night the city always felt so alive…

Yeah, probably. I’m sure they would have made that trade. Of course, it’s at least $12M away from being possible, as the salaries didn’t come close to matching. But sure.

By “waiting them out,” he was referring to waiting until free agency had begun, at which point the deal could have been done without the salaries matching, since the Knicks would be under the salary cap limit, and could have taken Rose’s salary into their cap space.

@326 –

I couldn’t believe it was meant the way the quote read, so I following the link. This is mind-boggling:

Jokic is playing more often with Gallinari and Chandler and less with another big, a combination in which he’s excelled. Those three have shared the floor in eight of Denver’s ten regular season games, have outscored the opposition 168-146, a +22 margin and have clocked a 7.2 NetRtg, the highest of Denver’s three-man combinations, per NBA.com.

The Nuggets sit at just 4-8, two games into an important four-game homestand. They’ll take on Utah Sunday and Chicago Tuesday, as Malone and the Nuggets continue to try and get Jokic back on track.

Even a writer who knows something about stats sees evidence that Jokic is the same player he was the previous year and then states that he needs to “get back on track.” He IS on track! He is just being used poorly. Wow.

Would they take LT?

@330

I like Ntlikina a lot on the basis of his defensive upside. Dude has the athleticism and wingspan to be a versatile defender. Right now he’s being used as a 2-guard in Europe, so he’s not getting a lot of run to show what he can do at the point.

I will check Deaaron Fox out.

By “waiting them out,” he was referring to waiting until free agency had begun, at which point the deal could have been done without the salaries matching, since the Knicks would be under the salary cap limit.

It’s still a trade only a fan could suggest. They didn’t want Calderon and had to add picks to trade him away. So…Grant would have been the magic piece? It’s obvious they weren’t resigning Noah and liked getting a good center on a cap-friendly deal. That’s the only reason they made that trade. (Which is a good reason.)

#326

I’ve been following the situation over there in Denver because it seems like Jokic is there for the taking.

I was just joking about trading LT for him, but you look at the way he’s being undervalued and you wonder if they understand what they have with him. I’d trade our high first round pick for him in a NY minute even knowing we probably need to draft a future starting guard because I am so high on Jokic’s talent. Rotating him with Willy and KP down the road would stack our front court for the next basketball generation.

we had cap space to do the rose deal with unmatching salaries…

my qualms with LT have almost nothing to do with how he’s played… it was just a bad decision rewarding someone’s first ok year at age 27 based on a small sample of his 3pt rate…

It’s still a trade only a fan could suggest. They didn’t want Calderon and had to add picks to trade him away. So…Grant would have been the magic piece?

I agree that in that “not having to match salaries” scenario, Calderon would not have been involved. It would have been more just to give them a chance at parting ways with Rose (which they were frantically trying to do – they were very motivated sellers) so that they could go out and overpay veterans in free agency (Chicago’s offseason plan was really bizarre). By the way, I’m not saying that that scenario was a probable one, I’m really just addressing the issue of whether they had to worry about matching salaries in a Rose trade.

we had cap space to do the rose deal with unmatching salaries…

Only once free agency began. At the time of the trade, they still had to match salaries.

I’ve decided that all game threads up until Christmas will now also include a clip from a 1970s Christmas Special.

Like Sonny, Cher, young Chaz Bono (when he was known as Chastity Bono), Bernadette Peters and Captain Kangaroo from 1976…

Add Jokic to the list of guys we should save from their teams. We just don’t have value to trade back which sucks.

Also we should definitely draft Kennard. He plays like White James Harden.

Kennard is a very intriguing possibility. You know he’ll just slip in this draft because he’s a white American. But damn is he smooth.

The guy I hope falls is Harry Giles. Hopefully he gets overlooked due to how talented Duke is and he comes off as a good role player instead of the super stud he actually is. That young man is the next Kevin Garnett. His Team USA play was vicious.

Oh right you definitely don’t have a pre-existing narrative about Rose that you clutch to like it’s your own personal life’s defining teleology

The irony here is so thick you could cut it with a knife.

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