The important thing for Game 5 is that, if it is close late in the game, the Spurs should really just give the ball to De’Aaron Fox, and let him simply figure things out on the fly.

As the high from Wednesday wears off, reality for me is setting in.

Winning the last game is going to be the hardest.

I don’t expect game 4 to destroy the souls of the spurs. I expect then to be extremely pissed off and to play with extreme desperation. Every game we’ve won has been by 1 point. We could easily be talking about us being swept right now. We’ve barely led any of this series except when it’s mattered.

Taking nothing away from our guys but San Antonio is very good and this is still a very evenly matched series.

I think we have to close out Saturday. If we lose then a lot of pressure is going to be on us to close it out at home for game 6 and MSG sometimes can be a detriment to us when the pressure is on us. And then if it gets to game 7? Who the fuck knows.

So more than any other game coming out strong in game 5 is going to be the most important thing. We cannot govern this team any hope.

Spurs are minus-5.5.

What do you guys think of this play, is Wemby trying to hurt OG, as Ian Begley implies, or is this angle, which is from the comments to his tweet, convinces you that he isn’t? I think the 2nd angle absolves him.

Every game we’ve won has been by 1 point.

They won Game 1 by ten points.

The important thing for Game 5 is that, if it is close late in the game, the Spurs should really just give the ball to De’Aaron Fox, and let him simply figure things out on the fly.

That’s a very solid strategy, I think the Spurs will be smart to follow it.

Do the Spurs have the TALENT to sweep three games in a row from the Knicks? Of COURSE they do. When they’re not doing dumb shit, they’re fucking awesome, and likely the more talented team between the two teams (the best player on the court is clearly Wemby).

But, well, they DO do dumb shit, so come on, they ain’t winning three games in a row against the Knicks. I doubt they win ONE game in a row.

Brian, statistically you are right but it has happened before and what if they immediately take the lessons of game four to heart?

They are a very talented team. We need to close them out tomorrow.

I would just say let’s not get cocky like the spurs did last game. I doubt our guys will do that but we need to finish this off now.

I didn’t look but I bet game 5, with the team leading 3:1 playing on the road, usually goes to the home team. I hope I’m wrong.

I assume the arena will be at least 50% Knicks fans tomorrow. Maybe more?

Has any Finals team ever been this dumb? It really seems like uncharted territory, which makes predicting its future a little more challenging.

I do generally agree that it’s hard to see their shooting/execution combo being good enough to win three straight games.

Maybe it really is just their youth and maybe they were just too young all along to go the distance. They probably should have gotten themselves some adult supervision at the deadline.

I think it’s their youth and inexperience but also cockiness, which is partly bc of wemby’s entitlement.

Which is why I won’t be satisfied till we win. If game 4 humbled them and they play with urgency and humility, that changes things for them.

I know we are up 3-1. I’m very happy, but I’m still not super confident. Being up 3-1 is huge when you have home court. But in this case the Spurs have home court. These kids still think they are the better team and would up 3-1 if they didn’t melt down twice. So in their minds they are a solid favorite tomorrow. Assuming they win all they have to do is win 1 game in NY to get it home for game 7. In their minds they already beat us once in NY once and should have beaten us twice. I don’t see them rolling over next game like the Cavs did after we came back on them. We better come out ready in game 5 because game 6 will be ridiculously pressure filled for NY. Anything can happen.

Has any Finals team ever been this dumb?

I can’t recall any. You rarely get teams this young in there.

Anything can happen.

Anything CAN happen, sure, but WILL it happen? Come on.

I didn’t look but I bet game 5, with the team leading 3:1 playing on the road, usually goes to the home team.

Anybody have an easy way to look this up?

Brian is not going to kick being cocky to the curb. It’s a big part of what he does around here.

We did get a triple “it’s good!” From Mike Breen. I think he was ready with the triple bang if the Brunson shot had gone in.

I suspect that it’s very easy to look up, Alan, but I suppose most of us kind of don’t want to do so because it’s likely not good news for us and we don’t want to see it. I really think whatever it says can be thrown out the window, though, because this Finals is like no Finals before it, and certainly this Knicks team is off the charts in terms of historical fit to any prior teams.

In my newsletter today (free for anyone), I wrote about the best TV show I’ve watched over the last two months. You might be able to guess what it is:

https://www.whatsalanwatching.com/friday-check-in-go-new-york-go-new-york-go/

It’s not cockiness! Just, well, come on! The Spurs have now fallen apart late in pretty much every game! They’re now supposed to win THREE straight games? Forget everything else, who thinks that that is likely to occur?

you would think almost every nba finals is unique, this series though seems to have a uniqueness all its own…

saturday will most likely be wild with no known outcome ’til the last minute/seconds or so determining the winner…

“I do generally agree that it’s hard to see their shooting/execution combo being good enough to win three straight games.
Maybe it really is just their youth and maybe they were just too young all along to go the distance. They probably should have gotten themselves some adult supervision at the deadline.”

Do we *really* think the following things will (or will not) occur?:
1. That KAT is going get two fouls in the first minute of the game again, thereby changing the whole first quarter dynamic?
2. That the Spurs torrid 3-point shooting that got them that big lead in the first place (with KAT out, and before it totally deserted them in the second half) is going to resurrect itself?
3. That OG will *not* be featured (and might even guard Wemby, as we know he can do)? There is literally no one on the Spurs that can handle/contain him.
4. That the Brunson/Alvie lineup will not be used for a longer period of time after it worked so well? This gives Jalen relief on bringing the ball up every time, and makes us play faster, which we absolutely need to do against this team.
5. That Wemby will not at least *try* to contain his emotions/hotheadedness, now that he knows he is one stupid move from being thrown out? I believe that he’d miss the rest of the game, plus the next one. (By the way, if he gets thrown out and there *is* no next game, is he just absolved? I don’t think they would suspend him for the first regular season game of next year, not that we would give a shit either way.)

#ogforfinalsmvp

“you would think almost every nba finals is unique, this series though seems to have a uniqueness all its own…”

So this one is more unique than the regular unique? Got it. LOL

E, I think that Fox was supposed to be their “adult supervision.” That didn’t go so well. 🙂

If game 4 humbled them and they play with urgency and humility, that changes things for them.

I don’t think kids get humble this quickly.

And it’s not just Wemby, Harpar is laughing at the Knicks too. And Vassell is all smiles when things go well.

E, I think that Fox was supposed to be their “adult supervision.” That didn’t go so well. 🙂

We all made fun of it at the time, too. They gave up, like, NOTHING to get him, and I still didn’t think it was a good idea. I really think it just blocked their ability to pick up a better guy than Fox later.

This team with, like, CJ fucking McCollum, even, would be SO much better than with Fox. 32-year-old Khris Middleton would CRUSH on this team (I wanted to specify an older, less talented version of Middleton would still crush).

Strongly advise you to start your morning by watching the spider cam video from the final few minutes:

https://x.com/NBA_NewYork/status/2065364315717161248

I saw a really strong analysis on Tiktok from someone named Collin Hatfield that convinced me the Spurs weren’t quite as dumb as it seemed – that the Knicks strategy didn’t change from the first half to second and that it was mostly a case of the shooters beginning to miss and Wemby tiring out.

In short, the focus was too hit Wemby multiple times on his rolls to the hoop with as many players as possible – not quite the Thibs “pack the paint,” but definitely a prevent defense bent on making it impossible for Wemby to get a good shot near the hoop and to tire him out in the process. The Spurs adjusted with space, setting up shooters behind the 3-point line, and the Knicks let them have those shots, betting that they couldn’t hurt enough to hurt them. (But of course they did.) Meanwhile, on offense, they tried to involve Wemby on every play, switching to go right at him rather than avoid him. As Wemby tired, he couldn’t do those closeouts as well, so we had more open threes, and more problematic, Brunson starting hitting over Wemby. Which is why Fox left to help Wemby when he was switched onto Brunson for the final shot, opening the lane for OG. (Or leaving him open for a shot, but Brunson didn’t pass).

This jibes with the locker room reports, which had various players saying they needed to stick with their strategy, that the Spurs wouldn’t keep hitting those threes, that the Knicks just need to be 1% better on what they were doing (hitting Wemby, rotating faster), because it would eventually pay off.

So the Spurs took what the Knicks were giving them in both halves, but didn’t shoot as well I’m the second, and Wemby was exhausted by the end – by design.

Wow, spider cam rules

How bad does John Starks want a title. Guy is locked in.

I feel like we should probably put conspiracy theories to bed:

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/article/knicks-spurs-averages-238-million-viewers-in-most-watched-game-3-of-nba-finals-since-1998-with-president-trump-at-msg-123532690.html

There’s no doubt we’ve gotten fucked but bias and incompetence are likely the cause, not conspiracy.

I actually hope there is a conspiracy, because with 159% rating improvement over Thunder Pacers, if the league does put their thumb on the scale we’re going to 5 straight finals.

Most watched game since the MJ Bulls. Insane.

I saw a really strong analysis on Tiktok from someone named Collin Hatfield that convinced me the Spurs weren’t quite as dumb as it seemed – that the Knicks strategy didn’t change from the first half to second and that it was mostly a case of the shooters beginning to miss and Wemby tiring out.

Naturally, the Knicks should get credit for making it hard for the Spurs to get to the rim in the second half, but it’s still stupidity for them to completely abandon the paint once their threes stopped falling.

They literally missed five straight threes midway through the third! Look at this Play-By-Play!

In the Finals specifically, teams down 3-1 with game 5 at home are 24-11, which is frankly extraordinarily high–higher than normal home court advantage would predict. That’s annoying as hell, but we’re hardly hopeless.

As for the entirety of the playoffs, that I wasn’t willing to tackle on my own, but here’s Claude’s answer:

I reconstructed every NBA playoff series from 1947 through the present from game-level data (home team, score, series state entering each game). The qualifying condition — Game 5 hosted by the team down 1-3 — occurs whenever the team without home court goes up 3-1 in a 2-2-1-1-1 series, or when the home-court team went up 3-1 during the 2-3-2 Finals era (1985–2013). There have been 102 such Game 5s. The results:

The trailing home team won Game 5: 71 of 102 (70%)
The road team closed out the series in Game 5: 31 of 102 (30%)
But the team up 3-1 won the series anyway 93 of 102 times (91%). Only 9 hosts completed the full comeback: 1970 Lakers, 1979 Bullets, 1981 Celtics, 1997 Heat, 2003 Pistons, 2006 Suns, 2015 Rockets, 2016 Warriors, 2026 Pistons.

…

A few footnotes on methodology. I excluded the 2020 bubble, where the nominal “home” team down 1-3 won Game 5 four times in nine tries (Denver did it twice en route to its two 3-1 comebacks) — those weren’t played at anyone’s arena. I also excluded seven ABA series that fit the pattern. And pre-1970s “home” designations occasionally meant armories or alternate venues, so treat the earliest entries with mild caution.

I hope the league knows the Knicks are driving that, not Wemby.

I suppose the concern is it is a conspiracy, and Silver is dumb enough to think “everything we’re doing for Wemby is working!”

I hope the league knows that’s the Knicks are driving that, not Wemby.

I suppose the concern is maybe it is a conspiracy, and the league is dumb enough to think “everything we’re doing for Wemby is working!”

I don’t know how anyone sees any of the crazy videos out of NYC and think this is about the Spurs.

This, by the way, is an amazing reaction video:
https://x.com/jessefinver/status/2065271212775768310

I think the league has been bucking those trends a lot in the shooting variance era, though. Home teams used to dominate game 7s, too. Not so much anymore.

I missed the editing window, but looks like my last post is actually wrong and teams down 3-1 in the finals with game 5 at home are actually just 9-8 in game 5. I accidentally counted game 5s at home for the closeout team. D’oh.

That’s much more hopeful!

They won Game 1 by ten points.

And our 1 point win in game 2 belies how in control we were of that game before a brief collapse.

Btw I don’t know if anyone has seen the follow up clip of Wemby’s “attack” on OG’s knee, but milo was right again — it was completely benign and you can see that clearly from a different angle.

Only 9 hosts completed the full comeback: 1970 Lakers, 1979 Bullets, 1981 Celtics, 1997 Heat, 2003 Pistons, 2006 Suns, 2015 Rockets, 2016 Warriors, 2026 Pistons.

EYE TEST WARNING: That skews very recent. If you believe Claude, winning Game 5 gives you around a 1 in 8 (9 series winners out of 70 total Game 5 winners) chance to then go on and win the series, but with the very recent skew, it’s probably more on the order of 1 in 3 or 4. Maybe even entirely indistinguishable from the overall odds of winning when you’re down 3-2 — which means, assuming you win Game 5, there’s no real signal to be found in you having lost three of the first four games as opposed to splitting them.

I honestly think the relevant stat is this:

We’re 3-0 in closeout games this year (all on the road) with an average MOV of 39.3 pts.

This team doesn’t fuck around.

And I think we figured the Spurs out after game 3. The one point win in game 4 belies the fact because KAT got taken out of the game. I think what we did in the second half is the real proof of concept. And if they solve what we did with Alvarado tomorrow, Brown likely has an adjustment to the adjustment.

One bit of irony is that Mike Brown probably got fired due to Fox’s dumbness. He got so frustrated with Fox that he called him out in the media in a way that I’ve rarely seen a coach call a player out.

It was one of the reasons I was worried about the Mike Brown hire, since publicly calling a player on this team out in this media market for making a dumb decision would go over even worse than it did in Sacto. Not to mention how much Leon and his team has tried to steer clear of any controversial quotes in the media. The most recent example of that was the Mitch injury, where he was about to say something and got cut off by a FO media guy.

But the Fox gaffe in that Sacto game was of the same “situational awareness” variety as the one in Game 4. It’s Bargnani-level bad.

Still, Fox is a dangerous player and I wouldn’t count on him screwing up in these final 3 games. He was huge in game 3 after everyone had written him off, and the only reason he even had an opportunity to make that gaffe was because he made a brilliant defensive play to get the ball and himself ahead of the field, a play that should have won that game for them. Now he did make a bunch of bad decisions throughout the Knicks comeback, and Spurs fans were crucifying him in real time in the Pounding the Rock. game thread.

Lev Akabas
@LevAkabas

The Knicks in this series:

+31 in 49 minutes with Alvarado on the court
-23 in 143 minutes with Alvarado on the bench

I expect then to be extremely pissed off and to play with extreme desperation. Every game we’ve won has been by 1 point. We could easily be talking about us being swept right now. We’ve barely led any of this series except when it’s mattered.

No more Swifty cosplaying Pags

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