Knicks Morning News (2023.10.10)

“For example, I agree with Noble that his first 2 years are virtually irrelevant when forecasting his injury risk for the next 2 years, but agree with Hubert that they are relevant in forecasting how long Joel has before he drops off and what that drop off may look like.”

This is fair. OTOH, it is patently absurd to compare Embiid’s durability and health issues to players like Shai and Doncic in the context of whether the Knicks should trade for Embiid. They are both 5 years younger than Embiid and don’t weigh 300lbs (Embiid weighs 280 like Trump weighs 215.) You couldn’t possibly get more apples to oranges.

But that’s only a part of the deep dread about such a deal. TNFH’s contention of IQ being “untouchable” in a proposed Embiid deal is logically equivalent to asserting that the Suns could have traded for KD without including Mikal (sorry, they could have included Booker, just like we could substitute Brunson for IQm my bad.)

And because of that, meaning the grievous cost of acquiring him, the entire premise that Embiid will be the final piece for the Knicks given the likely outgoing haul fails the smell test worse than a dumpster full of rotting fish guts down on Fulton Street on a 100 degree day. Any team with a single MVP-candidate (who is not actually, you know, the best player in the NBA) surrounded by at best borderline all-stars, is a prohibitive underdog to ever win a championship, unless that team has the means to build a quality rotation around that player post-trade. So while there is dread about doing something before the second apron closes some window, that dread should be even more intense if an Embiid trade puts us into the second apron. Are we actually forgetting that improving that post trade roster is virtually impossible?
-no mid-level exception
-no ability to sign players bought out by other teams
-no ability to take on salary in trades without “perfect” matching
-no ability to acquire players through the draft, or package draft picks for additional players.

And because of that, the Knicks would be completely dependent on a) Embiid not only being healthy, but playing heavy minutes at an MVP-level both during the regular season and in the playoffs, and b) his key supporting cast (in this cans, almost certainly Randle and Brunson) also playing extremely heavy minutes because the bench is thin as the toilet paper in a Super 8 motel.

And god forbid there is a decline or a serious injury…then you are saddled with an albatross that would make Russell Westbrook look like a bargain, and a team that would be irrelevant for the better part or a decade going forward. At least teams like the Nets, Utah, and Portland were able to cash in on their superstars to accelerate a rebuild. No doubt the Celts, Bucks, and Clips could do the same. The Knicks would be dead as a doornail.

I know that this sounds overly-apocalyptic, and if it does happen, I’ll accept it and root hard for the best-case, as I did in the wake of the Melo trade. But if the cost for Embiid is what I think it will be*, I might actually feel worse about it than I did about acquiring 26yo Melo.

*and if it is less, than my dread will subside substantially. But let’s be real, it won’t be.

“Since all of our players except RJ are kind of good, we would be doing all of this in service of paying to give away a good player, and even the biggest RJ skeptics among us don’t want to literally salary dump him.”

Um, we actually just did something like this this with Obi, and many here (including you?) liked him more than RJ. Is it really that big of a deal? I would think that there wouldn’t be much outcry about “literally salary-dumping” RJ unless he takes a leap, which many here (including you?) feel is highly unlikely. Would it be any more painful than the Hawks essentially salary-dumping John Collins?

Alec Burks would have come in handy right now, and he was essentially a salary dump.

The Blazers would have preferred to keep Josh Hart. The Celts would have preferred to keep Grant Williams. The Warriors would have preferred to keep Donte. The Nuggets would have preferred to keep Bruce Brown. The Heat would have preferred to keep Gabe Vincent and Max Strus. These kinds of non-ideal cap-clearing moves have taken place since forever, often involving good players. It wont be all that different in 2025.

On a somewhat related note, It hasn’t been part of this discussion, but what about the impact of the almost certain prospect of league expansion? Everyone is going to lose the best of all but its top 8 “good” players to an expansion draft in 2025 or 2026. Picking who you leave unprotected might depend on whether you are over the 2nd apron or not. Not sure how that factors into the debat about strategizing right now, but it sure seems like it should be factored in.

I loved what I saw from both Wemby and Chet, but let’s keep in mind that these were two NBA babies playing in a nothing game vs. nothing competition. Last night was closer to a high-level summer league game than a NBA regular season game. Can we at least wait until one of them weighs more than Jowles coming out of a 2-hour steam bath after a 7-day juice cleanse?

I respect the right of anyone to take a knee or not take a knee. Much more concerned by the health of said knee.

Since the Knicks are owned by Dolan and have employed a wide range of assholes and suspected felons over the years, Isaac would be pretty low on the list of guys to be appalled by. Not my cup of tea, but whatever.

“I’m not quite sure what we’re supposed to take away from those Raptors teams in any event. If someone wants to trade us a superstar at a laughably low price to spite the Lakers, yeah, we should accept that offer. I wholeheartedly agree that ripping off some team for a superstar is a better idea than paying the market rate for Embiid.

On the off chance that no one wants to get ripped off by us though, Embiid still strikes me as a good option.”

I originally made the point to suggest that Masai would a) not have a championship without the Kawhi trade, which was a once-in-a-generation steal, and b) he would never have paid “market price” for Embiid, which btw I think you have consistently underestimated, as evidenced by your suggestion that it would be possible to not include IQ (or Brunson) in a trade package…do any other posters think that’s possible? Please raise your hand!

You said pretty definitively that IQ is untouchable. Do you really mean that? If not, please clarify. Because if you do, then why bother even discussing such a trade?

If the price was IQ, Mitch, Grimes, RJ, three unprotected picks out to 2029 and two unprotected pick swaps, would you make the deal? Because anything less than that just isn’t going to get it done, and even if it did, it wouldn’t be a package without one of IQ or Brunson (who actually IS untouchable!)

It would help to know that in advance, so that if Leon either pays or rejects that kind of offer, we’ll know where you drew the line.

It’s true that the Knicks have not made “optimal” use of their draft opportunities, but they have not squandered them either. Three of their protected picks are likely to convey, and are therefore draft assets. One of their own picks (lottery-protected) was used to acquire Josh Hart…who is better than 90+% of the players available in that crap-shoot draft slot would turn out. Trading mediocre draft picks for sure fire excellent rotation players on good contracts is never a bad strategy. Having protected picks that convey is sometimes better than having your own if your team is a top-10 team. There’s ample room for legitimate criticism there, but these are quibbles, similar to quibbles one would have with any FO making a slew of decisions in a rebuilding process. The only unforgivable mistakes for me are a) the Obi pick, and b) the trade of the CHA pick for Cam. And even wanting to trade the farm for Spida was idiotic.

So overall I’m very happy with where we are compared to where we were when Leon took over, and while I want a championship before hanging out with Gus over the rainbow bridge, I don’t want to mortgage a decade of hope for an outside shot at one. As such, kicking I’m my final judgment of this FO down the road until trade deadline 2024 unless something crazy happens.

“That either gets it done, or it doesn’t and we have to raise serious questions about whether Leon has accumulated enough assets to build a contender.”

Well it won’t get it done, so have at it with the serious questions!

“…since we’re obviously not doing any kind of OKC, nuts-and-bolts style rebuild.”

It’t still an option for a future GM if Dolan gets impatient.

“If it’s not, then the whole plan sucks because we’re probably not incrementally putting together a better team than that.”

No, it’s your “all or nothing” “my way or the highway” attitude about the plan that is the issue. One would think that you would allow for some room for alternate positive outcomes other than trading for Embiid without including IQ, especially given how your takes from this time last year have aged.

We have no idea whether Embiid will ever become available to us, or whether Morey will simply insist on trading him to anyone but the Knicks. But I would agree that if landing Embiid, and only landing Embiid, is the only potential avenue to building a contender that Leon will consider, then yes, that is one shitty plan.