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Knicks Morning News (2023.10.09)

  • Under the Carpetbag – The New Yorker
    [news.google.com] — Monday, October 9, 2023 6:00:00 AM

    Under the Carpetbag  The New Yorker

  • Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks: Lineup Predictions, Injury Report – Hardwood Houdini
    [news.google.com] — Monday, October 9, 2023 5:00:02 AM

    Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks: Lineup Predictions, Injury Report  Hardwood Houdini

  • Celtics vs. Knicks: Start time, where to watch, what’s the latest – Hoops Hype
    [news.google.com] — Monday, October 9, 2023 3:31:18 AM

    Celtics vs. Knicks: Start time, where to watch, what’s the latest  Hoops Hype

  • Josh Hart Gets High Praise From ‘Proud’ New York Knicks Legend – Sports Illustrated
    [news.google.com] — Sunday, October 8, 2023 11:19:25 PM

    Josh Hart Gets High Praise From ‘Proud’ New York Knicks Legend  Sports Illustrated

  • Tom Thibodeau faces ‘tough call’ to fill out Knicks roster – New York Post
    [news.google.com] — Sunday, October 8, 2023 7:51:00 PM

    Tom Thibodeau faces ‘tough call’ to fill out Knicks roster  New York Post

  • NY Post Knicks Beat Reporter Stefan Bondy talks training camp and previews preseason opener vs Celtics – New York Post
    [news.google.com] — Sunday, October 8, 2023 6:16:00 PM

    NY Post Knicks Beat Reporter Stefan Bondy talks training camp and previews preseason opener vs Celtics  New York Post

  • Young Gunned; Las Vegas Aces Top New York Liberty in WNBA … – Sports Illustrated
    [news.google.com] — Sunday, October 8, 2023 6:05:22 PM

    Young Gunned; Las Vegas Aces Top New York Liberty in WNBA …  Sports Illustrated

  • Knicks Rumors: Zion Williamson Trade Was Discussed; Pelicans ‘Not Sold’ on Star – Bleacher Report
    [news.google.com] — Sunday, October 8, 2023 2:51:42 PM

    Knicks Rumors: Zion Williamson Trade Was Discussed; Pelicans ‘Not Sold’ on Star  Bleacher Report

  • Report: New York Knicks monitoring Donovan Mitchell, Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid as trade targets – Cavaliers Nation
    [news.google.com] — Sunday, October 8, 2023 10:43:57 AM

    Report: New York Knicks monitoring Donovan Mitchell, Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid as trade targets  Cavaliers Nation

  • “Disgraceful to throw a punch like that” – Mike Breen on sucker-punching by Carmelo Anthony in the 2006 Knicks-Nuggets brawl – Basketball Network
    [news.google.com] — Sunday, October 8, 2023 8:00:00 AM

    “Disgraceful to throw a punch like that” – Mike Breen on sucker-punching by Carmelo Anthony in the 2006 Knicks-Nuggets brawl  Basketball Network

  • Expected wins for 2023-24 New York Knicks: Too high, too low, or spot on? – Posting and Toasting
    [news.google.com] — Sunday, October 8, 2023 8:00:00 AM

    Expected wins for 2023-24 New York Knicks: Too high, too low, or spot on?  Posting and Toasting

  • La saison 2023-24 des New York Knicks… dans leur pire cauchemar – TrashTalk
    [news.google.com] — Sunday, October 8, 2023 7:41:00 AM

    La saison 2023-24 des New York Knicks… dans leur pire cauchemar  TrashTalk

    • 120 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.10.09)”

    I know we don’t have much right to ask for improvements to a site that’s essentially free, but is there a way to resolve whatever issue keeps killing the site on the soon-ish side?

    I know it’s preseason… but we’ve got some Knicks basketball today!

    Repost:

    We are not a contender right now (see Vegas, Las), and while I am somewhat optimistic about the potential for internal growth I would bet heavily* against us getting there unless we acquire a new best player.

    I am fairly certain Leon Rose agrees with this assessment and thus will not let this roster, plus or minus a few tweaks, hit the second apron. I bet** there will be a consolidation trade, and I bet*** Leon’s first choice is for that trade to bring in our new best player.

    Just keep all that in mind when you’re nitpicking the back-to-back 9 BPM guy to death. There’s gonna be a trade. You should hope it’s for someone really good.

    *This is not me indicating a willingness to risk financial ruin.

    **This is not me indicating a willingness to risk financial ruin.

    ***This is not me indicating a willingness to risk financial ruin.

    Derrick Rose started for the Grizz and scored 13 points in 13 minutes.

    #aproposofnothing

    Just keep all that in mind when you’re nitpicking the back-to-back 9 BPM guy to death.

    His injury history is not nitpicking. You’re talking about hitching nearly a decade of Knicks basketball to the guy. Whether or not he’s likely going to play is a pretty major pick.

    “Just keep all that in mind when you’re nitpicking the back-to-back 9 BPM guy to death. There’s gonna be a trade. You should hope it’s for someone really good.”

    I really, really wish we could have this discussion without the unnecessary shit like “keep all of that in mind” like any of us aren’t “keeping all of that in mind.”

    The assumption should be that we are all keeping such blatantly obvious shit in mind. It’s incredibly patronizing to suggest that we are not doing so.

    I also wish we’d stop reminding folks that Embiid had a 9+ BPA the last 2 seasons. Everyone knows that and doesn’t need to be reminded, unless it’s mentioned in the same sentence that he is getting old, has a chronicly bad knee and a checkered injury history, needs another star to be paired with which will be impossible to acquire afterwards, and has pretty much underperformed in the playoffs every year except one, and woefully so the last 2 years. Or should I say, just keep that in mind.

    We’re back up again? Cool! 😉 Maybe the server got a little anxious because it’s the Knicks debut. 😀

    “Maybe Joel Embiid ain’t the guy but at some point you gotta go big if you want to go beyond the mezzanine.”

    So long as we can agree that there is ample reason for a reasonably person to believe that Embiid (at the price he would command) ain’t the guy, I think your points are very well made. And I’ll be happier than anyone ever to eat massive crow if it happens and he is in fact The Guy. I love it when I’m wrong and it turns out in the Knicks favor!

    But I sure as hell wouldn’t do it. No way.

    We hardly talked about it here but Embiid committing to team USA for the 2024 Olympics is a pretty big deal.

    The assumption should be that we are all keeping such blatantly obvious shit in mind.

    I actually don’t consider the brand new salary cap minutiae that gives the Knicks approximately two years to make a consolidation trade before losing the opportunity to do so “blatantly obvious shit.” I mean, props to you for being familiar with it I guess, but don’t speak for everyone else!

    I also wish we’d stop reminding folks that Embiid had a 9+ BPA the last 2 seasons. Everyone knows that and doesn’t need to be reminded, unless it’s mentioned in the same sentence that he is getting old, has a chronicly bad knee and a checkered injury history, needs another star to be paired with which will be impossible to acquire afterwards, and has pretty much underperformed in the playoffs every year except one, and woefully so the last 2 years. Or should I say, just keep that in mind.

    What I do think is “blatantly obvious shit” is that Joel Embiid is not the perfect trade target in every way.

    The injury concerns are well-known, albeit exaggerated by you for rhetorical flourish–he has played in ~76% of his team’s regular season games in the last 4 seasons and ~87% of his team’s playoff games.

    It’s also true that. ideally, he would be 19 as opposed to 29.

    For those reasons I’m very open to hearing trade ideas that:

    1) are for players realistically available before the second apron hits

    2) clearly give us a higher ceiling than the 9 BP–sorry, sorry, than Joel Embiid

    3) so obviously fit the first two criteria that it’s worth not even getting on the phone to inquire about Embiid if he becomes available before said opportunities

    We’ve been talking about this for days and I haven’t seen a single proposal that even made me think. Fan fiction about SGA doesn’t count.

    “We hardly talked about it here but Embiid committing to team USA for the 2024 Olympics is a pretty big deal.”

    Do you mean it’s a pretty big deal when he (squints at magic ball) comes to the Knicks and then blows both his knees out at the Olympics?

    Thanks for setting that up PT! We’ll probably need a dedicated Cam Reddish/incineration channel

    What are people looking for in tonight’s game?

    Bets on who plays more minutes between Grimes and Donte? I’m guessing Donte just so Thibs can see hpw he melds in different lineups

    All eyes should be on Quickley, Grimes, and RJ tonight. If this is going to be anything other than a sideways or mildly disappointing year, it’s likely to be because of one of those three players.

    We have no idea who will be available between now and the deadline if we get off to a poor start, but we have the assets to complete a deal for a high level star player (or less) while retaining enough depth to contend. That’s the reason we’ve been rolling out picks instead of making draft selections. That’s why Fournier is still on the team. It’s going to a pick centered trade. We’ll empty the cupboard, throw in 1 or at most 2 good players, and match salaries.

    This second apron thing is really a moveable feast. In two years we could just be like “maybe it’s not a good idea to pay our 7th, 8th, and 9th guys $40mm” and make some trades to get under it.

    Embiid’s health/aging prospects are a pretty fascinating and important topic. Since breaking through the issues at the start of his career he has been overall healthier than I think common perception would think – 63 games, 64, 51(of 73), 51 (of 72), 68 and 66 games. That’s not terrible and comparable with a lot of other non-ironman stars. On the other hand he always seems to be banged up come playoff time and seems to take multiple ugly falls per game. I think his size and midrange game should age pretty well in theory but it’s definitely a risk.

    63 games, 64, 51(of 73), 51 (of 72), 68 and 66 games. That’s not terrible

    Are you sure? It looks pretty bad.

    That’s his record in his 20s. We’d be signing up for his 30s. It’s gonna be worse.

    Are you sure? It looks pretty bad.

    I mean it’s not ironman level but the last two years he has been ~top-50 in the league in total minutes. There aren’t that many guys playing 35 minutes a night for 82 games anymore. There are guys with worse health track records over the last 5 years who don’t have quite the same injury prone rep is my only point (the oft-coveted by KB Paul George for example). Obviously a lot of those guys are older and your point about 20s vs 30s is well taken.

    I don’t know, I’m not really pushing for Embiid; I just looked at his BRef page and thought to myself that he’s generally played more than the discourse around him might make you think.

    Embiid is under contract until 2026 with a player option for 2027. Let’s say we trade for him this season at the deadline. This means that before we mortgage our future to age 32 to age 36 Embiid, he’ll have to play very well and deliver results for 2 and a half seasons, or else we’ll not mortgage our future for a guy that isn’t getting things done. If he was expiring, he’d be much more of a risk, this way we’ll have 3 postseasons to know if we want to re-sign him.

    @IanBegley
    Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White are out for BOS vs NYK, Joe Mazzulla says.

    This will be a hugely informative game for us!

    63 games, 64, 51(of 73), 51 (of 72), 68 and 66 games… That looks pretty bad.

    It looks pretty good to me. A lot of those DNPs in recent years were back-to-back scenarios and other load management considerations. The Sixers have been on the inside of the playoff picture looking out, so they’ve had the luxury of being conservative. Plus, the Covid season(s) didn’t just have abbreviated schedules. They had mandatory protocols that required people that had been exposed to stay away from the team. And speaking of Covid, 9 of the 14 games Embiid missed in ‘21-‘22 were due to Covid, not injury.

    I think we have reached the point where “games played” is the new “per game” stat. It’s virtually useless without a lot of context.

    It’s a favor to Cyber, Queta will get some run

    Yeah, Queta at MSG is my dream indeed, but i had pictured it in orange and blue. 😉

    @IanBegley
    Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White are out for BOS vs NYK, Joe Mazzulla says.

    This means Thibs will only play Randle, Brunson, and RJ 40 minutes each tonight. 🙂

    Boston actually scheduled back to back preseason games. I don’t know why they would do such a thing. We are the second game of their back to back.

    since he doesn’t figure in the early rotation, i’m rooting for some good preseason deuce minutes. def rooting for him to stake out a role in the league.

    Brunson and Quickley starting backcourt tonight?

    Thibs is getting close to figuring it out. Now just put RJ on the bench and start Grimes.

    Sean Grande
    @SeanGrandePBP
    Starters for New York now updated with Grimes, not Quickley. Which makes a lot more sense.

    It’s preseason for staff, too.

    Darn it

    Boston actually scheduled back to back preseason games. I don’t know why they would do such a thing. We are the second game of their back to back.

    I have no idea if teams think like this but maybe helps themmake sure they’re ready in terms of logistics, traveling after a game, getting in late, what time is shoot around, what time is team meal, etc. And then once all the logistics are worked out you get a game to highlight the back of the roster. Just a theory

    Boston actually scheduled back to back preseason games. I don’t know why they would do such a thing. We are the second game of their back to back.

    October 17 New York @ Boston
    October 17 Minnesota @ New York

    GoNyGo, I was referring to todays game which is Boston’s second preseason game in two days

    “I actually don’t consider the brand new salary cap minutiae that gives the Knicks approximately two years to make a consolidation trade before losing the opportunity to do so “blatantly obvious shit.” I mean, props to you for being familiar with it I guess, but don’t speak for everyone else!”

    First, this is false. Second, even if it was true, two years is an eternity. Third, timing should never be a consideration in debating the merits of.a trade on its face. To me, the trade as it would likeluy shake out is a bad trade, period….whether we had five minutes left to make it or five years.

    “The injury concerns are well-known, albeit exaggerated by you for rhetorical flourish–he has played in ~76% of his team’s regular season games in the last 4 seasons and ~87% of his team’s playoff games.”

    I think the injury concerns are legit and not exaggerated by me or the other who have them. No more than they are minimized and handwaved away by you. This can be a legitimate point of disagreement, right?

    “I think we have reached the point where “games played” is the new “per game” stat. It’s virtually useless without a lot of context.”

    Here’s a list of injuries Embiid has dealt with in the playoffs.

    According to one source, here’s the fine details:
    Out: 5 games (he actually played in one of these)
    Doubtful: 4 games (he played in 3)
    Questionable: 12 times (he played 11 times)

    That’s 21 games he was injured badly enough to be listed as questionable or worse. In last year’s playoffs, it’s almost certain that he would have missed a whole bunch of games with his knee injury if it were in November rather than May.

    One can extrapolate a prediction from this stuff however one wants to in assessing the merits of a trade. I expect for him to have lots of difficulty with his knees going forward, to the point where he continues to post worse and worse numbers as he ages and as regular season and playoff grinds wear on.

    Aside from that, even assuming 9+ BPM Embiid shows up, there hasn’t been a single successful model of a team winning a championship on the back of a single star with a supporting cast that doesn’t have another top 20 player. Brunson and Randle are not those guys, in fact, none of them complement each other all that well. So trading any chance to acquire a second superstar just to say we have one superstar for a few years just doesn’t do it for me.

    Eyes on all Knicks. Special focus on …
    – Grimes breaking out as an offensive force
    – Mitch offensive game and free throws
    – Brunson ball distribution
    – RJ 3-point shot and defense
    – Sims as a PF/C

    GoNyGo, I was referring to todays game which is Boston’s second preseason game in two days

    I know. The league did this. I think the mid-season tourney has something to do with this. It makes no sense.

    We’re looking smooth. But of course starting against the Maine Celtics is making it easy.

    I was going to shit on Barrett for two forced drives already but that was a nice kick-out to Brunson. It’s early yet…

    Randall has made two quick passes as soon as he was double teamed. That is promising.

    Brunson is already convincing me that renewing my league pass was smart!
    Maaan we re lucky to have this baller!

    7 minutes into the first preseason game I’m gonna say RJ isn’t making the leap and next offseason will be the 5th consecutive “remember, he’s only [age here]” offseason

    Queta in. Let’s see how he fares against Mitch.

    Edit: Forget about it, Mitch is out now. LOL

    0-4, 0-3 from three. But hey, he’s 4-4 from the free-throw line!

    On his way to 20…

    “…and next offseason will be the 5th consecutive “remember, he’s only [age here]” offseason”

    Not from me, I promise! But maybe I’ll wait more than 10 preseason minutes before deciding…

    Danish strong beer Faxe (10%) tastes ugly but does miracles!
    I see knicks to ecf!!!

    Any two-way plus player instead of RJ would break my spreadsheet calculations for how many games the team is going to win this year. smh

    I am also wondering how Sims will do on offense as power forward. So far he’s taken one shot, which was a last second shot off of an in bounds. My guess is that Thibs wants to see if Hartenstein can do enough from outside to let Sims play offense on the inside.

    Cyber, you didn’t tell me it was pronounced Kay-ta, not Kwe-ta.

    Evan doing that weird three-point fake and drive. Just shoot it, Evan…

    And ptmilo’s dream substitution, here comes Deuce…

    That was odd. The starters had a large plus minus and the bench a large negative one in the first quarter. I think some of that was Mitch making it very hard for Boston inside. The Boston announcers were talking about how hard Mitch is to deal with.

    Cyber, you didn’t tell me it was pronounced Kay-ta, not Kwe-ta.

    We don’t say Kay-ta here, and the u is silent, meaning we say Keta.

    Lotta air balls. You’d think this was the first pre-season game or something…

    “We don’t say Kay-ta here, and the u is silent, meaning we say Keta.”

    So when he dunks for an and-1 he should yell Quetafuggouttahere!

    If Randle makes another All NBA he’ll be top5 all time among Knicks players!? 😮

    So when he dunks for an and-1 he should yell Quetafuggouttahere!

    LOL, exactly! 😉

    On Queta’s list of things to do:
    A dunk on MSG ✅
    No wonder he celebrated a little too much 😀

    “Mitch is missing his FTs with some arc on them now”

    Yeah, he won’t shoot any better but less wear and tear on the rim…

    Knicks have only seven assists and RJ is the assist leader with two of them. Some of the low assists may be due to our horrible three point shooting.

    Wemby and Chet having a preseason duel for the ages

    Time to bet the OKC over

    I’m shocked that Prichard has only hit 4-11 from 3 (7-15 overall), seems like he hasn’t missed all night!

    Some fun Jokicstein moments, but sadly looks like Deuce McBride still can’t really get into the paint

    “Let the record show I have made IQ untouchable in alllllllll my fake trades”

    Wait, you’re against trading for Embiid?

    This game is suggesting that Sims is the leading candidate for back up four.

    “This game is suggesting that Sims is the leading candidate for back up four.”

    …so long as Josh Hart is in street clothes and RJ plays 16 minutes…

    Toppin only has one rebound so far but he still seems like he might be a better rebounder than Toppin.

    “What did IQ do?”

    Pretty much everything you would expect him to do, very solid and polished in all facets of offense. Made it look easy. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but his shot looked a bit less shot-put-y to me.

    Toppin only has one rebound so far but he still seems like he might be a better rebounder than Toppin.

    Toppin toppin’ Toppin

    It looks pretty good to me. A lot of those DNPs in recent years were back-to-back scenarios and other load management considerations.

    Yeah, no.

    DATE
    INJURY
    5/10/23
    Knee
    5/8/23
    Knee
    5/6/23
    Knee
    5/4/23
    Knee
    4/21/23
    Knee
    4/7/23
    Calf
    3/26/23
    Calf
    3/23/23
    Calf
    3/1/23
    Foot
    2/14/23
    Foot
    2/12/23
    Foot
    2/9/23
    Foot
    2/7/23
    Foot
    2/4/23
    Foot
    2/2/23
    Foot
    1/31/23
    Foot
    1/29/23
    Foot
    1/27/23
    Foot
    1/21/23
    Foot
    1/4/23
    Foot
    11/21/22
    Foot
    10/30/22
    Illness
    10/28/22
    Knee-Rest
    1/31/22
    Rest
    1/15/22
    Elbow
    12/18/21
    Ankle
    12/13/21
    Ribs
    11/8/21
    Health and Safety Protocols
    11/1/21
    Rest
    10/29/21
    Right Knee
    10/27/21
    Knee
    10/25/21
    Right Knee
    10/23/21
    Knee
    10/21/21
    Right Knee
    6/19/21
    Knee
    6/17/21
    Knee
    6/15/21
    Knee
    6/13/21
    Knee
    6/10/21
    Knee
    6/7/21
    Knee
    5/31/21
    Knee
    5/15/21
    Illness
    5/10/21
    Illness
    5/8/21
    Injury recovery
    4/24/21
    Shoulder
    4/23/21
    Shoulder
    4/4/21
    Rest
    3/12/21
    Knee
    3/9/21
    Health and safety protocols
    2/28/21
    Ankle
    2/15/21
    Back
    2/14/21
    Back
    2/5/21
    Knee
    1/30/21
    Back
    1/28/21
    Back
    1/24/21
    Back
    1/15/21
    Knee
    1/13/21
    Back
    1/9/21
    Back
    1/8/21
    Health protocols
    12/30/20
    Back
    12/27/20
    Back
    8/12/20
    Wrist
    8/9/20
    Ankle
    2/26/20
    Shoulder
    2/7/20
    Neck
    1/8/20
    Hand
    12/31/19
    Knee
    12/15/19
    Illness
    12/6/19
    Hip
    10/25/19
    Ankle/Lip
    5/7/19
    Upper Respiratory Infection
    4/22/19
    Knee
    4/18/19
    Knee
    4/14/19
    Knee
    4/8/19
    Knee
    4/5/19
    Left Knee Soreness
    4/2/19
    Load Management – Knee
    3/29/19
    Rest
    3/18/19
    Rest
    2/20/19
    Left Knee Soreness
    2/9/19
    Illness
    1/25/19
    Rest
    1/20/19
    Back
    1/18/19
    Back
    1/11/19
    Ankle
    12/29/18
    Left knee soreness
    12/9/18
    Migraine
    10/26/18
    Ankle
    3/28/18
    Facial contusion
    2/14/18
    Sore ankle
    12/31/17
    Sore hand
    12/17/17
    Sore back
    12/11/17
    Back tighness
    11/20/17
    Sore knee
    9/25/17
    Left knee surgery

    https://www.foxsports.com/nba/joel-embiid-player-injuries

    Walsh is one funky looking dude…

    bless you z-man for being so willing to say the quiet parts out loud…

    you know, i don’t think he had any eyebrows, dude is dolphin smooth 🙂

    talk about a charlie brown versus lucy and the football situation:
    evian = charlie
    thibs = lucy
    playing time = football

    yeah evian, this may not go the way you’d like…

    reference new looks – julius now needs to clean up the beard and just go with a goatee…

    quik looks perfect with his new face fuzz…his braids are growing out nice…

    you know you’re missing some knick basketball when you watch a whole pre-season game start to finish…

    oh,and great job on the discord thing milo…

    awwwwwww, you really do love us ❤️

    #gamer4life

    oops, kind of what i thought, ‘ol mister walsh has a medical situation…

    developed alopecia about 5 years ago…that’s gotta be scary, not yet 20 and all your hair falls out…

    oh well, i always wanted a ponytail like antonia banderas in desperado, that wasn’t ever happening…

    hair dreams can be cruel…

    Yeah, no. [long list ensues]

    I can only assume your kid was playing with the boy next door again, and your needed to engage in some escapism. But the fox sports injury report doesn’t refute what I wrote earlier. Embiid missed 14 games last season, 5 of which were part of back-to-back games. That’s a lot of load management. Those are scenarios he’d play in May (if they existed in May, but they don’t).

    His recent games played totals really aren’t a big negative. Doncic hasn’t played more than Embiid’s 68 games since his rookie year; Giannis hasn’t matched Embiid’s in that span either; Shai has played a lot fewer games than Embiid during the these recent years. These are guys who, rightly so, you wouldn’t worry about trading for. I’m not saying Embiid is some iron horse that’s going to be playing 84 games a year soon. But his trend line does indicate that he is getting stronger, not weaker.

    I get that rooting for dry powder is fun. But rooting for MVPs is fun too.

    yes, come one, come all…welcome to the place, where no one is ever wrong…

    i blame all those legal scholars out there for getting us here – you are the worst noble 😁

    when you go out to eat, you purposefully never order rhe same thing as any one else…

    Doncic hasn’t played more than Embiid’s 68 games since his rookie year;

    Are you seriously trying to put playing 66 out of 72 games beneath playing 68 out of 82?

    That’s bad, but not nearly as bad as Noble acting like the entire seasons Joel Embiid missed don’t count against his injury record.

    (The real percentage of games played by Embiid isn’t 76, by the way. It’s 54. He has played in 394 out of 719 games during his age 20-28 seasons.)

    “I’m not saying Embiid is some iron horse that’s going to be playing 84 games a year soon. But his trend line does indicate that he is getting stronger, not weaker.”

    He sure played like an iron horse in last year’s playoff run (meaning stiff and immobile).

    I would add that Joel is a strange case because he has been remarkably durable for all his injuries. You look at the injury list and missed time in isolation and no way do you predict his year 28 and year 29 production both in absolute terms and relative to previous years. That’s why it seems hard to find consensus on this risk based on historical numbers. For example, I agree with Noble that his first 2 years are virtually irrelevant when forecasting his injury risk for the next 2 years, but agree with Hubert that they are relevant in forecasting how long Joel has before he drops off and what that drop off may look like.

    Interesting Embiid back and forth. With regards to him missing 2.5 seasons, you could argue that that is a bit of a double-edged sword. He missed all of 2014-16 and part of 2016-17. Was all that just with the initial foot issue? Apparently he has been listed as out for games with foot issues since. So, it is a long-term concern.

    OTOH, you could argue that he’s not missed anywhere close to a full season since, and he’s had less “wear and tear” on his knees and such as a result of missing two full seasons.

    I wonder if some or many of those games he missed with a “knee” or “foot” or whatever were really where he was okay to play, but the team kept him out with an exaggerated abundance of caution.

    Still, age + injury history is a big concern with him as with any big man. As it often does, the big issue would be what would have to be given up to trade for him. If Philly has outrageous demands, the whole issue may be moot.

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