Knicks Morning News (2023.08.20)

“It was mentioned by strat, who confirms all media reports with his own direct sources, so I went there. Was that wrong?”

heh heh nothing wrong…I just think the “he’s trying to be more like Player X” narratives are not all that illuminating. Jimmy Butler is a HOF-level player with a vast array of skills. Which ones are RJ emulating (i.e. working on)? Plus their physical/athletic profiles are quite different. So it is only in a very general sense that the two players are comparable.

“I think RJ will improve from here but won’t be a star. I expect him to level out as an average offensive player with a high usage with defensive shortcomings. He won’t be a disaster but will still be a market value or worse asset.”

This is a fair call for 23yo RJ, but I expect continuing development for the next 3-4 years. I think he tops out as a fringe all-star…will probably get a couple of nods as a reserve.

“I would take Murphy over him in a second.”

Again, a fair call. Personally, it would take me a lot more than a second, I’d have to examine lots of game film to decide for sure, beyond the obvious salary considerations. Again, I saw lots of stuff in these playoffs that was overall very encouraging. I suppose how you come down on RJ comes down to whether you think that it was just a random “good” stretch like he has had throughout his 4 years, or whether it is a glimpse of what he will eventually be when he becomes more consistent. I’m more in the latter camp.

Who did that?

One point each for the 29 NBA teams that could use a player like that!

Raven, I appreciate the thoughtful defense of the comparison. It’s quite hard to quantify what I find to be glaring differences in their physical profiles, and how that translates into their “presence” on both sides of the ball. It’s glaring to me that they are just not the same physically, beyond things like height, weight and wingspan. But I’ll try.

First, there is the “faster-twitch” factor that you yourself pointed out. I think there is a massive gulf here, and that it is something that is not fixable. Jimmy has it in spades. RJ doesn’t. It’s as simple as that.

Second, there is a “physique” factor that stands out to me. I see it on their postures, their shoulders, their torsos, their legs….Butler is a perfectly proportioned athlete. RJ is not. And this plays out into how they look when they move and shoot. RJ looks stiff. Jimmy looks fluid.

Third, while Jimmy is not known as an “above the rim” player, I think that more of a choice with him rather than a limitation. Here’s an example of a young Jimmy Butler going eye-to-eye with the rim. He reportedly has a 39″ vertical. I don’t know what RJ’s vertical is, but doubt that it’s in that range.

Fourth, there’s innate body coordination. Again, I think the wide disparity is evident in watching film. Butler’s shooting mechanics are pretty standard. RJ’s look highly unorthodox. Jimmy has much better body control with the ball in traffic. Jimmy stays in front of his man better.

Then there are b-ball IQ things (anticipation, court vision, mental toughness) that are more subtle and hard to gauge because RJ is so young…in fact, at RJ’s age, Butler had played a grand total of 359 NBA minutes. Obviously Jimmy is elite in this area. RJ so far has been meh, but there is room for improvement here.

While I am sure some of what I am posting here is refutable on more detailed analysis, I think enough of it would stand up to scrutiny to conclude that aside from role and size, they are not all that comparable.

The knocks against Trey seem to be:
-he gets pushed around
-he doesn’t create and is more of a low-usage off-the-ball guy
-he doesn’t pass or rebound much

But he’s not a finished product by any means and the case for him being the better prospect than RJ is pretty strong. You have to kind of buy into E’s theory that RJ will grow into his usage to think otherwise.