Knicks Morning News (2018.09.04)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-jazz-did-nothing-this-summer-and-are-title-contenders-now/

Not sure if these guys have been reading my posts, but it’s not bad to see some confirmation that the Jazz sure look like a potential #2 seed this year. (Also, there was no plot twist about the loss of Gordon Hayward — we on this blog know that he had a solid contract year, but was horribly overrated before that.)

While we’re posting links, here’s another good piece:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24426920/nba-mental-health-trae-young-kevin-love-future-mental-wellness

A reminder that these are human beings we’re mocking on here. I promise to be nicer, Trae Young! Even though you were a terrible choice!

I like the jazz a lot, but Gobert gets hurt every year

@2

This makes me feel better about my unending devotion to defending Rudy Gobert and Joe Ingles in any argument basically.

@3 – I have pegged New Orleans as the team most likely to give us an attractive package for Trey Burke if he continues his stellar play from last season. I don’t think Payton is good. They’ve already demonstrated the willingness to trade a 1st round pick when they moved for Mirotic. They are sound enough defensively to cover for Burke’s weakness on that side. I think he would be a stellar midseason addition for them, and his salary makes him very easy to acquire.

Sometimes I forget that Chris Paul (top 3 all-time PG, perennial MVP candidate), Tyson Chandler (DPOY, All-NBA), Anthony Davis (DPOY, All-NBA, All-Defense, perennial MVP candidate) and DeMarcus Cousins (All-NBA, Carmelo Anthony Memorial Volume Chucker of the Year Contender) have all been Hornets in the last ten years, and they still have just a single >50 win season to show for it.

They have one season in franchise history with an SRS above 1.52. That is so goddamn bad.

If Mirotic suffers a big injury I would be happy to swap them Lee for his expiring contract.

yeah, but is guard their biggest need? Seems like a good wing would be more important.

That article does make it seem like acquiring a wing is more important, but only with regards to matching up with Golden State.

I’m projecting that Burke will continue his renaissance and Payton will be underwhelming. In which case, it could be a dynamic upgrade for them.

Either way, I’m optimistic Burke could net us a decent 1st this year, but only if he is playing at the same level he ended last year at and there is a contender with lackluster PG play. I’d say there’s maybe a 15-20% chance of that. And part of me worries we’d still be stupid enough to not trade him at the deadline and lose him for nothing in the summer.

“Maybe we can trade this veteran for a draft pick or asset!”

We say that a lot around here. It never actually happens.

I did handicap it at a 15-20% likelihood.

If Trey repeats his level of production last year, that production plus the ease of acquiring him (no commitment beyond this year and the ability to absorb him without having to match large salaries) makes him the perfect rental to a contending team in need of PG help next year.

This isn’t like asking someone to give us 1st for taking on two more years of Courtney Lee in decline or an expiring center like Kyle O’Quinn who (for whatever reason) isn’t valued by NBA GMs as much as his advanced stats indicate he should be. Trey Burke’s level of play last year, if repeated, could certainly warrant a pick in the 20s.

I think the Knicks are going to flip Hezonja mid-year for the Sixers’ top-1 protected pick via SAC. Maybe they’ll throw in a pair of 2nds as a sweetener. And cash. And the Eric Jr. Twitter account. And Embiid. And then Embiid will take a discount to play next to Future Knicks Star PG™ Frank Ntilikina and Future Knicks (Definitely Not A Volume Chucker) Superstar™ Kevin Knox and Future Knicks DPOY™ Mitch Robinson. Hell, he’ll even move to PF to play next to our rising young core!

Odds are Burke will tear up the league and be a coveted free agent; why would someone trade anything for him when they can just sign him up; we are going to lose him. It is what it is.

is there another dude named Burke that you guys are so high on? stellar play? trade for a 1? tear up the league? huh who what?

The only value we’re getting out of Burke is if he plays really well and re-signs. It’s extremely unlikely that he plays well enough at an exact ratio that a) we still want to trade him b) someone with assets wants him c) he won’t want to simply wait for free agency to get a better deal or simply more options.

The fact that Burke is short and also older might mean that even if he continues to play well this year, he may not command a huge overpay for his services. I’m hoping we get to keep the guy.

This is the time of year when Knickerblogger is at its most optimistic. Most of it is wishful thinking. But I will say that this year we have more players to enthuse about their upside than we usually do. We only have Thomas and Noah as veterans who are just as likely to be worse than better than last year. If some of the young guys do well that would be fun, even without having a wnning team

The point is that Burke’s production is entirely hypothetical. Not one of us has any idea if what he showed in those 30 something games is who he is as a player or not.

If he maintains the same stats then yeah, of course he’s tradeable. But the only team with good chances for the playoffs that even needs a Point Guard is New Orleans, and they’ll give Payton a chance and they could always just move Holiday back and grab wing players.

It’s very unrealistic to expect a team to trade a first rounder for a guy who could be had last year off the scrap heap and would be a rental anyway, even if he plays well.

I’ll take your bet. Define the terms. Not a stat person …what does a top 10 – 15 PG in the league look like when painted in advanced stats?

Burke’s production is not “entirely hypothetical.” Nor is it “pure fantasy.” He’s essentially Jeremy Lin 2.0, meaning that there will likely be some regression but even so, he’s still at worst a solid rotation player. He had an outstanding half-season in the G-League followed by an outstanding half-season in the NBA.

If you think we shouldn’t hold our breath for a crazy trade offer or sign him to a big contract, sure, I agree. But everything Burke did last year was consistent with who he was initially projected to be as a lottery pick and nothing he posted (other than perhaps an unsustainably high 2ptFG%) is all that far removed from his established skillset. He’s a very skilled ball-handler and passer, and scored reasonably efficiently at all three levels. And he was 25 years old, which is a common age for PGs to turn the corner.

@38

What I mean by his production is hypothetical is not that he did not produce, he did and very well for a limited amount of games, it’s just that people seem to be guaranteeing he’ll be this guy from now on and that’s a done thing. We haven’t seen him play even a minute yet, we can’t possibly know if he is a solid starter.

Teams trade for expiring contracts, yeah, but my point was more about: for a trade scenario to come up, he has to be good enough to warrant
1) a team willing to trade for him to be sure he’ll be impactful enough even if he bails next season
2) the Knicks not wanting to keep him while he’s playing very well.

Those two scenarios are incredibly unlikely to happen at the same time. If he’s good enough that a team with playoff aspirations is willing to give a pretty good asset for a 6 month rental of him, then why the hell would we be trading this 26 year old dude that’s very fucking good?

This is what I mean when I say a trade is probably absurd to think about. In the scenarios where he doesn’t develop, he won’t have trade value; in the scenarios where he does, why wouldn’t the Knicks just keep him, when he fits a need and is young enough to be promising plus would probably be inclined to re-signed with the team that put him on the map once more?

If Trey does well the Knicks will think they can sign him on a “hometown” discount. Then we’ll overpay him.

I agree it’s unlikely that the Knicks trade Burke, for all of the reasons given above. But they do have other guards on the roster, and they will see those guys in practice. They then might make a trade for the traditional reason that the backup guy is almost as good and they can get something useful for the starter. In the case of the Knicks, maybe they will have Burke starting with THJ, Knox, Hezonja and Kanter; but then think they could do better with Ntilikina because that lineup needs defense more than scoring. But assuming we will have two starting quality point guards on the roster is a big big if, and I have no faith at all that our current management values defense over offense.

Don’t call the Burke talk optimism, though. It’s pure fantasy. It’s like scratching off only part a match-3 lotto ticket, finding a pair of $20 symbols and going around asking people if they’d pay you $15 for it.

Actually, it’s like watching someone produce a specific way for three months and thinking that it’s reasonable to be cautiously optimistic that he might be able to reach the height he already reached for another three months.