Knicks Morning News (2018.07.27)

How did he score so much if he can’t shoot? I’m asking because I don’t know him at all, but I read his profile and he averaged close to twenty a game in G league, with one game of 46 points.

Y’all seen Enes Kanter on the new episode of NBA Desktop? What a supremely likeable dude.

@BC

Even after it was reported there was alot of “well that’s the price to get a talent like DLo”. It’s really weird that somehow D’Angelo Russell, after being an inefficient volume scorer for the first two years of his career and a truly god awful defender, was deemed some kind of burgeoning young star.

Even after it was reported there was alot of “well that’s the price to get a talent like DLo”. It’s really weird that somehow D’Angelo Russell, after being an inefficient volume scorer for the first two years of his career and a truly god awful defender, was deemed some kind of burgeoning young star.

I bolded the part that explains why people thought he was a burgeoning young star. 😉

getting drafted high provides a very long tailwind to earnings, even if you are objectively bad.

Just look at Perry and Mills’ “second draft” approach with all these former lottery picks from other teams. Fortunately, they’re not really overpaying for anyone, and Burke is a good example of why you try that gamble, on the off-chance that they finally start showing the talent to justify their original draft position. But there’s a difference between signing a Trey Burke to a cheap and partially guaranteed deal and doing what Brooklyn did to get Russell, or — God help us — what the Knicks did to get Bargnani.

Just look at Perry and Mills’ “second draft” approach with all these former lottery picks from other teams. Fortunately, they’re not really overpaying for anyone, and Burke is a good example of why you try that gamble, on the off-chance that they finally start showing the talent to justify their original draft position.

It would be interesting to see the follow up data on players that were drafted in the lottery at 18-19 years of age and had 2-4 disappointing years to see what the probabilities are for reaching various peaks (all star, solid starter on a good team, role player, bust etc..).

I haven’t got a clue what the answer is, but let’s just say 3% of them become stars and 10% become solid starters. If you could accumulate 5-6 of them on the cheap you might be giving yourself a pretty good chance of coming up with a very good player.

I think Hezonja is the best bet out of all non Burke ex-lotto tickets to figure it out. In his 30 games as a starter for Orlando last year, a sample size of 911 minutes, he posted a .571TS% on a 20% USG, and he averaged over a steal per game. The per game splits were 14 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.2 assists, and he was a 37% shooter from 3 as a starter. If he can improve on those numbers as he’ll likely be a starter for us (so long as we actually accomplish a Courtney Lee trade), that’s great value on a $6M deal.

Of course I like Frank’s chances to develop into an elite defender with at least enough offense to stay on the floor and affect games positively, but we drafted him. Vonleh and Mudiay are guys who will continue to suck and drive the tank full speed.

@10

This is a good point. Sometimes people tend to forget that not every high upside low production player is equal.

There’s a difference between gambling on Hezonja, Burke, Mudiay, Vonleh or Russell. They were all hyped prospects who were considered busts for various reasons, but some of them have shown something production wise and some have not.

I would like the Knicks to focus on the ones who have shown some production at least, like Hezonja and Burke, but it’s been a mixed bag so far.

What are the main reasons that keep lottery picks from reaching their potential early on?

-stretching the floor
-limiting turnovers
-defending effectively w/o fouling
-defending in space
-adapting to the size/speed/length of the NBA game

Seems like some guys have a single thing they need to dramatically improve to be valuable players, while others have multiple obstacles. Seems that choosing the former for cheap flyers is preferable.

Weak defenders seem easier to profile and identify by scouting.

What seems to be tougher to figure out is which young versatile scorers are going to raise their efficiency to an acceptable or higher level and which top defenders are going to at least be able to add a good 3 point shot over time to make them playable.

If Vonleh could add a solid 3 point shot, he’d be a pretty darn good player, but I have no idea if he will ever do that.

If Hezonja could improve his TS% to 57% or 58%, he’d be a very good offensive player. He may or may not be be able to do that, but I can’t imagine him ever being a good defender.

Also, @18 wasn’t intended to be a complete list. You could add “scoring efficiently” to the list but that could just as well fall under “stretching the floor” and “adapting to the size/speed/length of the NBA game.” Burke was a very efficient scorer both in college (and later in the G-League) so it was “expected” that scoring efficiently would be a strength at his size when he was drafted. Without that, he’s just not an NBA player.

Even if Burke doesn’t hit 56 or 57%, I think that’s still pretty good for a point guard, b

Yeah, I bet Danny Ainge really rues the day he made that trade with Brooklyn now.

@ Z-Man # 21 – “So what would you say Burke’s single thing was, from Utah to the player he is for us”

Answer: He grew up.

Seriously, getting fired twice and kicked out the league will either humble or break you. He simply matured. Is now older, wiser, got married, had a kid and worked countless hours into mastering his craft. This helps him remove some unhelpful emotions from his game, slows it down and allows him to make better decisions out the on the court. Not rocket science. Just normal adult and professional development.

@ Z-Man # 21 – “So what would you say Burke’s single thing was, from Utah to the player he is for us”

Answer: He grew up.

Seriously, getting fired twice and kicked out the league will either humble or break you. He simply matured. Is now older, wiser, got married, had a kid and worked countless hours into mastering his craft. This helps him remove some unhelpful emotions from his game, slows it down and allows him to make better decisions out the on the court. Not rocket science. Just normal adult and professional development.

You sound very confident in this answer. Do you have any evidence to support it? Because there are many, many draft busts who have gotten married and had kids, yet never got better at basketball.

The thing about Hezonja’s deal is really how pointless it all seems, that’s why I really hated that it was just a 1 year deal.

There’s no upside here, either he’ll play well and price himself out of the Knicks next year, while still not being super tradeable because of the contract, or he’ll just be bad and nothing will happen. Bonus points if he plays super well and brings more unnecessary wins then bails the next offseason.

I liked the decision to go for him, but the contract is really bad. I get that he might not be willing to come in a longer term deal or with team options but it all seems so pointless.

Also yo we’re paying Noah more than Houston is paying Capela. What the mother fuck

Thanks, Phil!

@ 30 – the evidence comes from Trey Burke’s own words about his life and NBA journey.

@28, 36. 37: That doesn’t explain what, only why. The discussion was about the specific aspects of his on-the-court game that needed to improve. Rarely do things improve without a focused approach and a lot of hard work. Why that approach and work is brought on, whether by being humbled, growing up, or whatever, is an entirely different conversation.

Burke’s statistical profile from his rookie year to now has remained very stable in certain categories. His per36 FGA, 3PA FT, FTA, ORB, DRB, TRB, STL, BLK TOV and PF have all stayed in a very narrow range. The only significant changes are in FGM and AST. He’s shooting better (and a bit more) and passing better (and a bit more.) That’s it.

My issue with the Burke discussion is the same issue I have with sample sizes here.

Mudiay is horrible for 4700 minutes and the optimistic narrative is “we still don’t know what he is, he can still improve and be good, those minutes are not an indication of his future”

Burke plays bad for 6600 minutes then well in 780 minutes with the Knicks and he’s figured it all out and proven he’s mature and a different and improved player.

Can’t we just hold our horses a little bit on Burke at least? He’ll be part of the mix for the next season as he should, and he’ll have consistent opportunities to produce, then we can talk about his maturity and improvement and all that. I don’t understand how you guys can be so sure of some pretty uncertain things with small sample sizes and so unsure about others in the face of consistent evidence.

I have seen some abject delusion on this site, but those idiots are proving new depths of tribal idiocy that I only could have dreamed of.

I guess Morey and D’Antoni are idiots. They should throw away all the advanced stats models they are using and use the ones we are looking at instead.

Seriously, it seems obvious to me that Melo has been declining rapidly and is a downgrade from Ariza. The thing is, it’s almost 100% certain they know that too. That was not the issue. Basketball is a business. Paying Ariza would have cost them a fortune in salary and tax penalties. The idea would be to try to replace Ariza and others contributors from last year the best they can at prices that make sense for them. They are getting Melo at the minimum. Morey will probably come up with some other body off the scrap heap and make up most of the lost production at a fraction of the cost. Then they are going to have to hope Capela or someone else jumps up.

After we buy Noah out in a little over a month (which would be a mistake) he’s better than even money to help some team a LOT off the bench this year. It would be 100% if they could count on him remaining healthy, but that’s problematical. Either way he serves no purpose here (other than as a mentor for Robinson) because we are on the “get worse every year” path to the title and will be back in contention just in time for Stratomatic to hit his 100th birthday and for KP to be in Noah’s shape.

One thing about Trey Burke is he’s always been a low turnover guard with a career 2.8 per 48 while the average PG has 3.5 per 48. I think it’s also worth noting that both Burke and Kanter came from Utah and hate Utah. I’m not sure what that is about because Utah has developed some pretty good players, but Kanter was a shitsicle until he left Utah and became front-court Eric Gordon. I think Trey Burke is going to provide a lot of value over his salary, and I love that he never forces the issue. He played high IQ ball for us and wasn’t limited by an inability to shoot, drive, or pass. It’s going to be hard for Ntilikina and Mudiay to take minutes from him.

@45: Just that maybe we should wait a bit before we declare he grew up and is a different player like you’r referring to someone else.

I’m with you there. I personally don’t care much about how or why he played so well last year. I just loved what I saw, and I love that what he showed after being called up was pretty much aligned with what he was showing in the G-league and what he did way back when during his sophomore year in college. My point is that his ability to be an effective NBA PG going forward is entirely contingent on his TS%. He’ll never be more than mediocre defensively or as a rebounder. However, he’ll always take care of the ball better than most. But the shooting is variable. The biggest concern is that his shooting on 2pt shots from 16 ft and out was a freaky 56.6%! Even Steph has only beaten that mark twice. Kevin Durant never did it. If Burke missed 11 more shots from that long 2 range, he’d be around his career average. But those 22 points could have been made up on 4 more made 3’s (he shot over 40% on over 200 attempts during 2016-17 and in the G-league) and 10 more made FTs (he only shot 65%, far below his career numbers of over 80% everywhere else. So there’s reason to be hopeful that he’s figured out how to be more efficient.

@48

I have some hope, he did show good signs. My problem with assuming he’ll be good is that his production shows a worrying profile of a lot of midrange shots coupled with the combination of very low free throw rates and very low steal numbers + only mediocre 3pt%.

Like, Chris Paul made a legendary career for himself without having the size and while shooting a lot of midrange jumpers and not a lot of 3s, but he always had very good free throw rates for his size and was a monster stealing the ball. Kyle Lowry is another guy who has a similar profile, obviously a bit worse in everything compared to a guy like Paul.

I worry that Burke will simply be a huge negative on defense and if he can’t get to the line or become an elite 3pt shooter it won’t be enough to have a very good assist to turnover rate and good midrange percentages.

I’m not asking him to be Chris Paul or even Lowry obviously. His statistical profile screams Jameer Nelson to me. Low steal and FTA numbers, not an elite shooter but a good ast to TO ratio who had some good seasons. Nelson on his prime would probably be the best point guard we’ve had in a while but hardly something to get too excited about.

So what would you say Burke’s single thing was, from Utah to the player he is for us?

Isn’t it obvious?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MjaMXR-R7aA

@51

I agree, it’s a good find, but I think his best case scenario is Nelson, if he keeps the pace from the 800 minutes he played last season.

Anyway he should be starting and getting regular minutes, there’s no reason not to play him 30 mpg.

I think Trey’s ceiling is Kemba Walker. They’re similar in some ways. Kemba is a low-turnover PG who was not very good until age 25, then made a leap. The season Trey had last year in 800-ish minutes was pretty similar to what Kemba does over 2700 minutes— efficient scoring, good assist-turnover ratio, add it all up and it comes out to around .150 WS48.