Knicks Morning News (2018.07.21)

  • [NY Newsday] Michael Beasley agrees to deal with Lakers, reports say
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 5:31:45 PM)

    Former Knicks forward Michael Beasley has agreed to join LeBron James in Los Angeles with the Lakers, according to multiple reports.

  • [NYPost] Lakers add Michael Beasley to LeBron James’ sidekicks
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 2:37:43 PM)

    The Lakers again were tempted to add to LeBron James’ cast of characters. Los Angeles agreed to a deal with former Knicks forward Michael Beasley on Friday, showing their continued push to assemble a veteran core around James, who signed as a free agent July 1. Beasley reached terms on a one-year, $3.5 million deal…

  • [NYTimes] Clipper Darrell Won’t Bow to King James. But He Wants To.
    (Saturday, July 21, 2018 3:55:48 AM)

    Since LeBron James signed, Lakers fans have unleashed a fresh strain of venom — and jokes — on Darrell Bailey, the Los Angeles Clippers superfan known for his red and blue suits.

  • [NYDN] Child abduction in Queens sets off Amber Alert
    (Saturday, July 21, 2018 3:05:00 AM)

    The NYPD issued an AMBER Alert for a baby who was abducted in Queens.

    Police said the abduction took place at the child’s home near Van Wyck Expressway and 91st Ave. in Queens at 9:55 p.m. Friday.

    The infant was identified as August Pippins, an 8-month-old black female. She was last seen wearing…

  • [NYDN] Maryland newspaper shooting suspect indicted on 23 charges
    (Saturday, July 21, 2018 2:25:00 AM)

    ANNAPOLIS, Md. — A grand jury has leveled 23 charges against a man accused of killing five people in a mass shooting at a Maryland newspaper office, a prosecutor announced Friday.

    The grand jury indicted Jarrod Ramos, 38, of Laurel, on five counts of first-degree murder in the deaths of Gerald…

  • [NYDN] Guatemalan pleads guilty in crash that killed Colts player Edwin Jackson
    (Saturday, July 21, 2018 2:10:00 AM)

    INDIANAPOLIS — A Guatemalan man living illegally in the U.S. pleaded guilty Friday to driving drunk in a crash that killed Indianapolis Colts linebacker Edwin Jackson and his Uber driver.

    Manuel Orrego-Savala, 37, pleaded guilty to two counts of operating a motor vehicle with a blood alcohol content…

  • [NYDN] Raising hell: Cynthia Nixon wants to raise the age, even for the most serious violent crimes
    (Saturday, July 21, 2018 1:05:00 AM)

    Gubernatorial candidate Cynthia Nixon is an experienced actress, but on criminal justice reform, she’s not playing the part of an off-the-rails liberal: She’s the genuine article.

    Witness her proposal, announced Friday, to revise state law passed last year raising the age at which youthful offenders…

  • [NYDN] Missing the Mark: Zuckerberg’s confusion on online lies
    (Saturday, July 21, 2018 1:00:00 AM)

    Defending the right of Facebook users to share lies, the CEO of the social media giant stepped in it, confusing falsehoods devised to attack and denigrate people with other types of misinformation, from mistakes to conspiracy theories.

    The Holocaust is one of many “things that people get wrong,”…

  • [NYDN] Put it back together: The vandalism of Navy SEAL hero Michael Murphy’s memorial is a high crime
    (Saturday, July 21, 2018 1:00:00 AM)

    Thirteen years ago, Lt. Michael P. Murphy, a Navy SEAL from Patchogue, L.I., was among 18 Americans killed in a fierce gunfight in Afghanistan’s Kunar province. He was posthumously awarded the Medal of Honor. In 2006, Lake Ronkokoma, where Murphy once worked as a lifeguard, dedicated a park in…

  • [NYDN] Teacher with history of alcohol arrests charged with DUI after crash involving eight vehicles
    (Saturday, July 21, 2018 12:50:00 AM)

    DOVER, Del. — A Delaware teacher with a history of alcohol-related arrests has been charged with drunken driving in an incident in which eight other vehicles were damaged.

    Rehoboth Beach police say 45-year-old Martin Tuohy of Middletown turned himself in Thursday evening to be charged in the July…

  • [NYDN] An excited, energetic Taylor Swift brings tour to MetLife
    (Saturday, July 21, 2018 12:10:00 AM)

    EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — Taylor Swift brought her explosive Reputation Tour to the MetLife Stadium on Friday and will make history as the first female artist to play three consecutive shows at the venue when she performs Saturday and Sunday.

    Swift was energetic and excited during her two-hour-plus…

  • [NYDN] Readers sound off on tipping, Trump and sharks
    (Saturday, July 21, 2018 12:00:00 AM)

    Tips for workers to make a living

    Manhattan: Marc Molinaro’s Op-Ed against raising the tipped wage (“Cuomo tips balance against restaurants,” July 16) is inaccurate, condescending and flippant. While true that New York’s restaurant industry is thriving, it’s false that its tipped workers are: They…

  • [NYDN] Woman charged with driving drunk in car with kids twice in two weeks
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 11:30:00 PM)

    WARWICK, R.I. — Police say a Rhode Island woman has twice been charged with driving drunk with children in her vehicle in two weeks.

    Warwick police say 41-year-old Leah Duran was charged with driving under the influence after refusing a Breathalyzer test on Thursday. Police say the Woonsocket woman…

  • [NYDN] Exclusive: Lieutenant in Brooklyn precinct busted down to sergeant for alleged sexual harassment
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 11:00:00 PM)

    An NYPD lieutenant — who was reported to the Civilian Complaint Review Board by another cop for foul language — has been demoted and placed on desk duty over sexual harassment allegations, the Daily News has learned.

    Jonathan Blatt, assigned to Housing PSA 1 in Coney Island, had his guns and shield…

  • [NYDN] Joe Benigno to take leave of absence from WFAN amid sexual harassment allegations
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 11:00:00 PM)

    Joe Benigno, currently embroiled in a sexual harassment scandal as part of a lawsuit against WFAN, is taking a leave of absence from the station.

    Benigno, who was originally scheduled to jump back behind the microphone on WFAN Monday, is taking a leave while Entercom, the station’s owner, tries…

  • [NYDN] Ackert: Jacob deGrom’s teammates have his back amid ace’s demands to Mets front office: ‘He has every right to say that’
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 10:55:00 PM)

    Jacob deGrom’s demands at the All-Star Game completely blindsided the Mets’ front office, but in the clubhouse, it did not surprise anyone who had been paying attention. DeGrom’s agent’s proposition to either extend the Mets ace beyond the two years that he is under team control or trade him now…

  • [NYDN] Red: Brian Cashman must make ‘Boss’ trade before deadline for Yankees to have best chance at World Series
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 10:50:00 PM)

    With a sparkling 62-33 record entering Friday’s Subway Series opener in the Bronx, rookie Yankees manager Aaron Boone said he expected his club to “go out and be great” in the second half of the 2018 season, and that there is the potential for Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, CC Sabathia and Co….

  • [NYDN] Ackert: Mets firesale begins with Jeurys Familia most likely headed to Athletics, sources tell The News
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 10:45:00 PM)

    Zack Wheeler was first to walk over and offer Jeurys Familia a handshake and a hug. The catchers followed and then bullpen coach Ricky Bones went over and said their goodbyes. The Mets were finalizing a deal to send their closer to the A’s late Friday night, two team sources confirmed. Word had…

  • [NYDN] Yoenis Cespedes stunningly says he may need heel surgery, Mets slugger could miss 10 months
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 10:30:00 PM)

    Yoenis Cespedes finally returned Friday night after missing more than nine weeks and came back with a bang, but how long will he last?

    After going 2-for-4 with a homer which hit off the left foul pole in the Mets’ 7-5 win over the Yankees, Cespedes revealed that all the leg injuries he’s dealt…

  • [NYDN] President Trump attempts to create more NFL drama, declares national anthem protest debate is ‘alive and well again’
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 10:25:00 PM)

    President Trump is once again getting the itch to insert himself into NFL players’ peaceful protest against police brutality by kneeling for the national anthem.

    One day after the Miami Dolphins announced they intended to discipline any player who kneeled on the field during the anthem with a fine…

  • [NYDN] Suspect in the murder of Hawaii police officer killed in shootout with cops
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 10:00:00 PM)

    The man police believe fatally shot a Hawaii officer during a traffic stop was gunned down during a wild shootout with cops after a three-day manhunt.

    Justin Joshua Waiki, 33, evaded police with the help of people on the Big Island, before they tracked him down at the extreme southern end of the…

  • [NYDN] Parking feud led to slaying of Brooklyn man whose pleas for help went ignored by cops
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 10:00:00 PM)

    A feud over a double-parked car escalated into the shooting death of a Brooklyn man whose pleas for help were overlooked by passing patrol officers, cops said Friday.

    Jimmie Russell, 33, was busted Friday in the slaying of Robert Fason, 43.

    As he feuded with Fason early on June 30 outside a bar…

  • [NYDN] Captain of the capsized Missouri duck boat told passengers not to wear life jackets
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 10:00:00 PM)

    Tia Coleman, who lost nine members of her family in the Branson, Mo. duck boat wreck Thursday, said her loved ones would still be alive if the captain hadn’t told them not to bother with their life jackets.

    “My husband would want me to say this. He would want the world to know that on this boat…

  • [NYDN] Noah Syndergaard’s shortened outing due to fatigue not injury; Jay Bruce unsure when he’ll start hitting again as back woes persist
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 9:55:00 PM)

    ??The Mets disastrous season has conditioned manager Mickey Callaway to expect the worst with regard to injuries.

    But in Friday’s 7-5 win over the Yankees, Callaway’s Mets avoided more bad news as Noah Syndergaard attributed his shortened outing and decreased velocity to fatigue and insisted he’d…

  • [NYDN] Gary Sanchez shows shades of early season struggles as Yankees blow countless opportunities against Mets
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 9:40:00 PM)

    The Yankees hoped to add some pop to their lineup with the return of Gary Sanchez on Friday, but the power-hitting catcher might as well have remained absent.

    Sanchez, who returned to the lineup for the first time since being placed on the disabled list June 24 with a strained groin, went 1-for-5…

  • [NYDN] Yoenis Cespedes crushes home run in return as Mets take down Yankees in Subway Series opener
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 8:45:00 PM)

    Yoenis Cespedes returned to the Mets lineup, Noah Syndergaard battled and the Yankees continued to struggle with their starting pitching and runners in scoring position as the second half of the season started with a 7-5 Mets victory in the Bronx on Friday night.

    Cespedes went 2-for-4 and homered…

  • [NYDN] Cop who caused the chokehold death of Eric Garner hit with NYPD charges
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 7:00:00 PM)

    The cop blamed in the death of Eric Garner was charged Friday night with violating NYPD regulations against using a chokehold to subdue a suspect, sources told the Daily News.

    The Civilian Complaint Review Board will prosecute the departmental case against Officer Daniel Pantaleo, who has been…

  • [NYDN] Lawsuit: Taylor Swift swiped the name of a Long Island business
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 6:45:00 PM)

    A Long Island computer guy has some bad blood with Taylor Swift, saying the pop princess swiped his trademarked label and hurt his business.

    Patrick Bénot, the owner of a Wantagh-based computer consulting business, said he trademarked the “SwiftLife” name in 2007 — nine years before Swift the singer…

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks’ Beasley reportedly set to join LeBron James, Lakers next season
    (Friday, July 20, 2018 7:25:10 PM)

    “The Walking Bucket” is headed to the West Coast.

  • 58 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2018.07.21)”

    Also, I’m not buying that the Spurs are regressing yet. They lost Parker who was absolutely garbage last year, Kyle Anderson (who I like) and Danny Green who was also garbage, and replaced them with DeRozan, who had a pretty good regular season, Poeltl, who was quietly very good and Belinelli who is a very good shooter, plus whatever Lonnie Walker can contribute.

    They won 47 games without Kawhi and now they add DeRozan in his place. I hate the fit with Aldridge and Murray, but they have good shooting with Belinelli and Bertans and I really wouldn’t put it past Popovich to coach the hell out of DeRozan on this team.

    You make some valid points, but last year w/o Kawhi the Spurs went from 61 to 47 wins and from the ECFs to getting spanked by GSW in the first round. LMA is 33, Gasol and Ginobili are ancient and I’m sure they know there will be no long playoff run for them so who knows if they can get the juices flowing. Murray is a good defender but can’t shoot. Green had an off year but still made over 36% of his 3’s and had a positive BPM and VORP (6th and 4th on the team, respectively.) Parker played less than 20mpg. LMA is 33. Anderson is a big loss.

    DeRozan is another not Pop’s kind of player (along with LMA and Gay) and his BPM and VORP were only slightly better than Danny Green’s.

    At the very least, I would say that the Spurs have at least as low of a floor and a significantly lower ceiling than the Lakers. They have virtually no 2-way players and can’t really shoot 3’s. They need guys like Murray, Bertans and Walker to step up, or for DeRozan to transform himself into a legit star. My guess is that the Lakers finish with a better record and go further in the playoffs.

    And again, if the Lakers can manage to get a healthy Kawhi into the fold, look out!

    Between Rondo, weird Lance, crazy Beas and a-hole LaVar, I actually think the Lakers will self destruct at some point. There’s no Pat Riley leading with a steady hand. I think it’s too much.

    Tough call on Lakers vs Spurs regular season wins. Keep in mind that Cleveland only had 43 pythagorean wins last year, and won 50 because of luck and LeBron’s clutchness. Can he duplicate that this year to push a mediocre Lakers team to 48-50 wins? The Spurs are likely to be in that range.

    @3 that’s the fear, although I think Rondo’s stuff is overblown and Beas and Lance have both been on excellent teams without derailing them (and Beas has played with LeBron on a Heat team that lost in the finals). Beas says some crazy shit but hasn’t been much of a distraction to any of his recent teams.

    And for all his craziness, LaVar was one of the first to predict that LeBron was coming. OTOH, if he shoots his mouth off, that could grease the skids for a Ball for Leonard swap.

    Winning cures all ailments and if Lonzo, Hart, Ingram, and Kuzma improve on the players they were last year (I expect Ingram to take a big leap) nobody is going to be worried about all the distractions. I do think that, ironically, LeBron James is the worst thing that could have happened to that developing Lakers’ team. His presence marginalizes a lot of guys talents and relegates them to 3&D duties, and that might work really well for a guy like Kyle Kuzma and Josh Hart but players like Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram will likely need the ball in their hands to reach their full potential. I also don’t know if LeBron is going to make himself coachable to Luke Walton or if he going to push for Mark Jackson to get the job.

    The thought of LeBron’s Lakers being unable to beat GSW plus the thought of LaVar Ball and Mark Jackson being associated with the same team would worry me if I were a Lakers’ fan. I’m not sure a couple playoff spankings before LeBron’s 36th birthday will be worth the drama, and I think Magic Johnson’s arrogance is going to hurt them in free agency. He lost Paul George to the worst market and biggest ball hog in the NBA. Toronto is a way better city, is already a dominant team in their conference, and they can still offer him the most money of anybody.

    As far as the Lakers being better than the Spurs, I think that can go either way. I like a lot of the players still in San Antonio and I don’t think betting against Pop is a good idea generally.

    When I look at what the Spurs are doing, I think back to the evolution of the Oakland A’s under Billy Beane. The Moneyball team put an emphasis on slow guys who walked a lot, and then as the OBP obsession filtered throughout MLB, Beane recognized that those kinds of guys were no longer undervalued assets, and began turning his focus towards building a better defense, even at the cost of OBP.

    With the emphasis on 3-point shooting from every position, is it possible that mid-range specialists are becoming undervalued assets? I’m not saying DeRozan and Aldridge in particular, given how highly they’re paid, but if you could put together a team of cheap Trey Burke types that nobody else wants because their specialty is long 2s, might you have something that could pleasantly surprise people?

    Alsep, I agree. I think often lost in the rush to doing more and more three pointers is the fact that an open two can be much better than a contested three. If you are Mike Antoni and you have a lot of good three point shooters you can design an offense that gets lots of open threes, but if you don’t have personnel to do that, available two pointers may be better shots.

    A midrange shooting team can only win if they have an excellent defense and can limit opposing threes. The Knicks lost so many games last year—to terrible teams like the Hawks—simply because the other team shot better from outside the arc. Aside from Frank, there’s not one good perimeter defender on the team.

    Sure it’s possible, but the thing is the Spurs have done little to bottom fish discarded short range players. They aren’t scooping up Greg Monroe or MKG from the closeout rack, they’re paying the same price LMA and DDR would have commanded in the peak how’s it goink era. Sure they have Murray, but they also just walked away from an affordable 4 years Kyle Anderson and paid a 32 year old there’s-no-D-in-3 Bellineli almost as much over 2.

    Pop has shown as a coach that you can still run a decent or better offense if you lack shooters, though they were only 17th last year. That should improve this year but I’m guessing the defense will suffer. But there’s a difference between a great coach making the best of it and a great GM zigging against the 3pt zag. I really don’t think this is a next level situation for them.

    Since this has become Lakerblogger I’ll put my two cents in.

    I think Magic sees Ball, Ingram, Hart and Kuzma + draft picks as trade pieces. I think he sees all the one year deals as checks he can eventually write to FA’s. So, I think there are two more stars coming. I imagine, Kawhi and AD next summer.

    Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if dominoes started to fall earlier than that. I just have a hard time imagining them playing a whole season with this roster. I mean, Lonzo seems totally lost. How does he get any run next to LBJ or Rondo?

    Question: Let’s say they cut bait on the idea of Kawhi, who might be a trade target right now?

    My prediction: Lakers msje the playoffs as a 7 seed w 45 games, Spurs miss the playoffs with 40 wins.


    Yeah, I agree, there’s a lot that could go wrong with the Spurs. I just have an irrational confidence in Popovich I guess, and I’m feeling he’ll know how to channel DeRozan’s anger about being traded in a productive way for the team. I think their future looks terrible, but that they will put together at least one good season with this core before inevitably having to look towards a massive rebuild.

    But there’s a difference between a great coach making the best of it and a great GM zigging against the 3pt zag. I really don’t think this is a next level situation for them.

    I agree that’s probably what this is. I’m just using that as a jumping off point to ask if there is a genuine argument to be made for some team to zig against the 3-point zag if they do it competently and not Phil-style. I don’t know enough about the math of it to know if it’s an utterly pointless idea, if it’s something to be done in moderation, if it’s something where you could surround a ball dominant DeRozan type with a lot of three and D guys (akin to our offense in the Jason Kidd season), how many mid-range guys you can justify carrying, etc. it’s dog days and we’ve already had our big vegan discussion, so need something new.

    With the emphasis on 3-point shooting from every position, is it possible that mid-range specialists are becoming undervalued assets?

    I think it’s a brilliant question, and thanks for the info about Billy Beane changing course once the entire league adjusted to his strategy. (strategy = looking for market inefficiencies, NOT the result of this strategy which was looking to improve OBP).

    It’d be interesting to experiment with it and look for players who…

    1. Rate high on statistical models
    2. Do not shoot 3’s very well, and
    3. Are paid less than what the average player makes given his said statistical model score.

    If Demar Derozan and LMA are on this list — wow. I’d prioritize going after the other players on this list.

    I can think of Beasley, who was underpaid relative to his stats and probably O’Quinn too, who meet those criteria. Beasley couldn’t defend, of course. Maybe some point guards like Rubio and Exum.

    I still feel like the lakers need a center, I’m just not sure who is crazy enough. Can Birdman come out of retirement? What about Paul Mokeski? How tall is Kim Jong-un?

    Since this has become Lakerblogger I’ll put my two cents in.

    It’s the offseason, my dude. There are 29 other NBA teams and LeBron leaving the East makes for a power vacuum.

    If we spend the next three months talking about Knox’s and Ntilikina’s upside, Lady Jowles is going to find me fallen off the wagon, a gallon of Clorox in hand.

    @7 I think that the notion that long 2’s are a good thing is absurd. Every time that I see a Knick hoist one up, I throw something at the TV. Realization that 3 feet of difference to get a 3 instead of a 2 has transformed the game.

    I won’t miss Beasley in NY at all. Had he stayed you could count on him going off at some point and producing 2 or 3 meaningless wins. He’s also the not the kind of player you want mentoring the younger guys.

    @11 I hate the Lakers, but if I were them I would target Jimmy Butler. He’d be cheaper than Kawhi and they could likely get him sooner.

    From yesterday’s thread – “I have come to believe that the entire GOP was bought with Siberian oil money” . It’s completely exaggerated statements like this and others (“Trump is a Russian spy” , “Putin must have something on him” , “Traitor” ) that make the stupid shit that comes out of Trump’s mouth sound almost reasonable in comparison. For someone “colluding with the Russians” it’s kind of counterintuitive that he’s approved more arms sales to Ukraine, expelled dozens of Russian diplomats, and levied new sanctions against the Russians.

    I think long 2s are never going to be more efficient than 3s for a team simply because of the expected percentages of hitting each shot and the degree of difficulty involved.

    As long as the average good 3 pt shooter hits 38% of his threes and the average good mid range shooter hits 45% of his jumpers it just can’t be different, 3 pointers are just more valuable.

    There could be a case where a specific team inches closer to 50% on the mid range level and has no very good 3 pt shooters (let’s say a 33% overall percentage), but then it’s just bad roster construction in the first place simply because there are pretty much always 3 point shooters available around the league.

    Yeah, given that 50% on 2s equals 33.3% on 3s, it’s tough for midrange shooting to be truly valuable. The only arguments I can see:
    1. Against good, switching defenses in the playoffs, the expected points per possession goes down and being able to generate middling efficiency midrange shots becomes more valuable. The same holds true in late clock situations generally. Still, as someone like Harden shows, you can still generate 3s, FTs, and shots at the rim in isolation.
    2. If you can make defense adjust to the midrange, it could make other shots more open/valuable. I would argue that’s bad strategy by the defense though. Maybe this could happen if a player consistently hit like 60% of their midrange shots.

    In order to really compare, you can’t assume all three point shots are created equal. An open Steve Novak three is great, but if he’s well covered by someone his size, his odds of making it go down a lot. Then an open two by, say, Porzingis, could be the better shot.

    The question is not are long 2’s better than 3’s. Clearly they are not. The question is are good players that cannot shoot 3’s become so undervalued that adding them at a good price is a winning strategy.

    RE: Spurs

    Yal ready for my conspiracy theory? Pop is done. 1st the deterioration of the relationship between Kawhi and the franchise. While it’s not necessarily Pop’s fault, that stench is still there. And now there’s the letting go of the types of players that Pop likes and excels in coaching in favor of the 6’11” version of DeRozan and the actual DeRozan. Remember Stat & Melo? Add to that the heartbreak that Pop has had to deal with recently, I’m not sure if the fire still burns for him right now. He may not retire, but I can see him sitting this one out.


    But that doesn’t really happen in today’s NBA, in fact it always seems that the mid range shooters are the ones overvalued, like DeRozan, Wiggins, Melo, Aldridge etc.

    I would say being very good at making mid range shots is so hard, since it requires footwork, good handle, athleticism that there’s no middle ground, there’s very few players that can do it, while you can find guys who can hit open 3s at super low wages even (and it’s much easier to create an open 3 than a very good mid range shot I think).

    Like, can you think of a very good mid range shooter that’s currently undervalued? I might be missing the mark entirely here but I really can’t recall many players that fit this definition. Most of them are considered superstars and paid accordingly even when they aren’t superstar level.

    I think it could theoretically happen down the line but it really still hasn’t happened. Maybe in a few years.

    Seems like the NBA is only beginning to come around to the value of the three point shot. The three point attempt rate is increasing every year and bigs are only starting to consistently unleash threes. DeRozan made an All-NBA team when he clearly didn’t deserve it (and wasn’t even the best offensive player on his team) and is being paid near max money. There’s a lot of backlash from the “smarter” fans/analysts, so that might make it seem like DeRozan is being undervalued, but by accolades, money, and mainstream consensus he’s not. He’s still a good offensive player because of his other skills (foul drawing, playmaking, low TOs), but he’s not a star.

    (He’s also shown he can’t generate efficient offense against good defenders, and he’s basically useless if he’s not scoring with the ball in his hands. That makes him a hard player to fit around—you basically have to build your team around him, and he’s not really good enough to justify that. He effectively caps your ceiling.)

    Jowles, you have any thoughts on the Moneyball question?

    As usual, I agree with Bruno. This is a big, macro-level question, one I’m struggling to organize my thoughts around, but the difference between the value of successful 20-footers and a 23-footers is so large, and the degree of difficulty so narrow, that it seems that you’d never be able to pay so little that you reach the break-even point.

    It’s like bunting: there’s no market for bunt specialists because the expected value of a bunt is so low. It got moneyballed out of the league, but that market deflation looks permanent.

    I think you’d have to create 2-, 3- and 4-point zones to balance the value of these kinds of shots.

    Say, 0-15 = 2
    15-25 = 3
    25+ = 4

    Perhaps then you could flatten the distribution of shots, and it could lead to some very exciting positions.

    It would be very interesting to run on-court experiments with different shooting-zone incentives to see how it affects the xPPS value of each shot, as well as the spacing between players when you have 3, as opposed to 2 outcomes (sans FTA) for any given FGM. As it stands, I don’t see the long midrange shot coming back into fashion, so long as players are learning to shoot from deep from an early age.

    In order to really compare, you can’t assume all three point shots are created equal. An open Steve Novak three is great, but if he’s well covered by someone his size, his odds of making it go down a lot. Then an open two by, say, Porzingis, could be the better shot.

    Harden shot 34.6% on tightly guarded 3s. Aldridge shot 45.8% on wide open 2s >10ft and 44.8% on open 2s >10ft. DeRozan shot 47.1% on wide open 2s >10ft and 40.8% on open 2s >10ft

    I think the more interesting question would not be mid range specialists against 3 point shooters, but iso heavy players against spot up shooters. Houston’s offense is heavily based around the 3 pointer but it’s also one of the most iso heavy offensive sets we’ve seen in a while. In that environment, a guy like Eric Gordon for example is extremely valuable, as he not only can shoot 3s and drive to the rim but create a bit for his team, all coming from iso sets or one screen, go actions. Gordon makes considerably less money than guys like Allen Crabbe or Otto Porter Jr who are mostly spot up shooters.

    There’s a lot of side stuff here, Gordon’s injury history and age, the inflation of the cap recently and all, but there might be a market inefficiency in terms of undervaluing players who can create efficient offense off of iso sets, as long as they add other skills to the mix (3 point shooting, free throws, passing, defense etc). Lou Williams is another guy who seems heavily underpaid to me now and fits the same definition.

    Again, just food for thought.

    It seems like people are talking about two different things here.

    Are players who can’t shoot threes but stuff the box score in other ways undervalued? It’s possible–between KOQ having to play for the minimum, Faried being viewed as an albatross at $12m AAV, OKC trading Rubio for a mediocre pick, Dwight Howard bouncing around all over the league, Enes Kanter’s reputation being in the gutter despite technically being one of the most efficient scorers in the league at his usage level, Willy being traded for two seconds, Ed Davis having to play for the minimum, and so on it seems like having a semi-reliable 3PT shot is almost considered a prerequisite for being valued at all highly outside of a few rare cases (Capela, etc.).

    What I don’t understand is the idea that DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, both of whom make close to the maximum amount of money they’re legally allowed to make, embody this potential trend.

    Harden shot 34.6% on tightly guarded 3s. Aldridge shot 45.8% on wide open 2s >10ft and 44.8% on open 2s >10ft. DeRozan shot 47.1% on wide open 2s >10ft and 40.8% on open 2s >10ft

    Of course if you have Harden you shoot threes, because he can hit at that rate even defended. But he’s so good, he’s not a representative example. If you are the Spurs your three point shot has to have a 30% chance of going in to match Aldridge’s points per shot on open two pointers. Does Patty Mills hit three pointers at better than 30% when he’s tightly guarded? If not, it’s better for him to pass to an open Aldridge.

    Note: I don’t know how to look up Mills’ shooting percentage when guarded, or I would have.

    Speaking of undervalued players, the Clippers re-sign another one, Montrezl Harrell for 2 years 12 million.

    I’m a big fan, can’t believe no one else took at least an extended look at him.

    Rondo is a pretty good example of the market inefficiency type of player you guys are talking about. He’s making about half of what Timmy makes but does everything better except shoot 3s.

    Most of the Lakers FA signings are market inefficiency guys, though in many cases the inefficiency is “he’s a complete knucklehead.”

    Most of the Lakers FA signings are market inefficiency guys, though in many cases the inefficiency is “he’s a complete knucklehead.”


    I would look forward to a pendulum swinging between “Has LeBron lost a step?” and “Does LeBron need more help?”

    The answer will probably be yes to both, but, yeah, sports talk radio is going to have a fucking field day with that team.

    Predictable 2018-2019 Lakers headline:

    “______ and _______ have to be separated after exchanging words in practice”

    (any combination of Rondo, Stephenson and McGee)

    Yeah, every single practice this team has is going to be scrutinized to no end.

    I saw a screencap of an espn analyst putting the Lakers 2nd in the west and the Rockets FIFTH. It’s almost like they’re setting the bar unrealistically high so when the Lakers fail there’s more material to go with.

    It’s quite startling to me that Mills shoots only 1% worse than Harden on contested threes. Is Patty Mills really good at threes or is the typical spread between players much smaller than I thought?

    Well, maybe we can get a 1st for Lance then? He shot over .400 from three last year. So what if he does literally nothing else?

    Apparently he’s much better han Mills or Harden.

    Lance Thomas making more money than KOQ or Cousins is a strong argument for the non-existence of a benevolent god


    And shoots almost TWO threes per game! I mean, you can’t really argue with the percentages, we’ve got a bargain on our hands.

    I think the 3-point shot brings excitement to the game, but it causes a problem when it trivializes the long 2. There is a solution: eliminate the corner 3 and add 3 more feet to the arc. Make the 3 a tougher shot by a full yard. That reduces the percent and evens the values better.

    @49 I agree on the problem, but not necessarily the solution. I’d try widening the court by 6 feet and make the 3-pt line 25 feet.

    My reasoning is that the 3-pt shot was intended to be a specialty/situational shot that few players shot at a TS% significantly higher than a 2-pt shot. But as was pointed out, the difference in TS% between a long 2 and a 3 is so dramatic that two of my favorite aspects of the game…the face-up 2 and the post-up game…have been marginalized. I also think the court dimensions were designed for smaller, less athletic players, so widening it would make sense.

    If the purists don’t go for this, just bring back hand-checking so that 3-pt shooters can be better defended. Or eliminate screening beyond the 3-pt line (i.e. eliminate the high P&R.) Anything that reduces the efficiency gap between 2’s and 3’s is worth considering.

    I like the idea of making the court overall bigger and the 3pt line 25 feet.

    I honestly have no issue with guys like Curry for example making 30 footers. He’s a transcendental superstar who has worked tirelessly on becoming one of the top shooters ever, it’s a strategy and one that I don’t think is cheap or lessens the game in anyway. Anyone can take those shots, only the absolute top tier can consistently make them.

    However it does bother me that tons of guys can just sit on the corner doing nothing and shoot 3s and get rewarded so much by what no longer should be considered a tough shot (or at least a shot tough enough to warrant 3 over 2).

    Make it so that 3s are harder to hit, so specialists and superstars are rewarded for their work, while adding some relevance to a more 2 point oriented game.

    Nah, corner threes punish bad defense. They’re fine. Anyway, it’s non-obvious that introducing more shot parity would make for a better game.

    Besides, extending the 3 line means having to cover more space on defense which will lead to more open threes and more space to drive. You’d see more shots at the rim and the three line and even fewer mid and long twos.

    25 foot arch and the bigger court makes sense. I would go to a full 100 feet in length and 60 feet wide. 60 feet wide allows for about 5′ of space for a corner 3 – if the 3 point distance was uniform. That’s another thing I would promote.

    I’m more in favor of bringing hand-checking back or at least a modified version of it. That would also reward teams with better passing, which I like to see.

    Alsep, I agree. I think often lost in the rush to doing more and more three pointers is the fact that an open two can be much better than a contested three. If you are Mike Antoni and you have a lot of good three point shooters you can design an offense that gets lots of open threes, but if you don’t have personnel to do that, available two pointers may be better shots.

    Did you know that the Rockets had the sixth-best defense in the NBA this past season?

    That D’Antoni probably gets too much grief over the defenses on his teams. When he’s had the personnel, his teams have been good on D. He just happened to coach Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire during his prime years.

    I doubt the league will widen the courts, because that’s a lot of revenue teams stand to lose.

    Comments are closed.