Knicks Morning News (2016.08.18)

  • [NYTimes] Basketball: Spain, U.S. Set for a Sizzling Semi-Final
    (Thursday, August 18, 2016 4:30:29 AM)

    The United States and Spain finally lived up to expectations, posting blowout wins on Wednesday to reach the semi-finals of the Olympic men’s basketball tournament as France and Argentina lost much more than a game.

  • [NYTimes] LeBron Envies Team USA at Rio Games
    (Thursday, August 18, 2016 3:06:28 AM)

    LeBron James opted not to play for Team USA at the Rio Games but the greatest player of his generation said he misses the Olympic stage and has left the door open to joining the national squad at the 2020 Tokyo Games.

  • [NYTimes] Basketball: U.S. Answers Critics With Blowout Win Over Argentina
    (Thursday, August 18, 2016 1:27:33 AM)

    The United States reaffirmed their status as gold medal favorites on Wednesday with a devastating 105-78 defeat of Argentina to storm into the semi-finals of the Olympic men’s basketball tournament.

  • [NYTimes] Basketball: No Gold but Plenty of Golden Moments for Parker
    (Wednesday, August 17, 2016 9:45:28 PM)

    There will be no golden end to Tony Parker’s international career, nor silver or bronze either after France bowed out of the Olympic men’s basketball tournament with a whimper on Wednesday falling 92-67 to Spain.

  • [NYTimes] Basketball-Spain Get Their Groove Back Against France
    (Wednesday, August 17, 2016 9:30:28 PM)

    Spain steamrolled over European rivals France on Wednesday with a convincing 92-67 win that could quiet concerns that the veteran team were past their prime as they head to the men’s Olympic basketball semi-finals.

  • [ESPN] Derrick Rose expands on Super Team comment: 'I'm not taking that back'
    (Wednesday, August 17, 2016 8:15:03 PM)

    Derrick Rose expands on Super Team comment: 'I'm not taking that back'

  • [SNY Knicks] Which Melo will return from Rio?
    (Thursday, August 18, 2016 2:18:04 AM)

  • [SNY Knicks] Efficient Lee should fit Knicks to a T
    (Wednesday, August 17, 2016 11:38:00 AM)

    The Knicks recruitment, led by Joakim Noah, ultimately sold Lee on calling Madison Square Garden home.

  • [SNY Knicks] Jackson is optimistic about the Knicks this season
    (Wednesday, August 17, 2016 8:26:34 AM)

    Phil Jackson is an optimist about the Knicks chances of becoming a contender this season, CBS Sports’ Matt Moore writes.

  • 46 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2016.08.18)”

    This post is for Frank. I remember we were arguing about why the Clippers are so bad offensively with Chris Paul off the floor, as in: Why can’t DeAndre carry the load?

    Just checked NBA Wowy. In the last two years, DeAndre Jordan has played 1738 possessions without Chris Paul with an eFG% of 65.8, about five points off his average (so yes, DeAndre is much better with Chris Paul, but still efficient without him).

    Austin Rivers has played 1202 possessions with DeAndre and without Chris Paul with a 44.4 TS% and a 42.6 eFG%. That’s, like… bad.

    Jowles, does it say anything about his usage w/ and w/o Paul? If both his usage and eFG% went down, that would be telling. Or if his TOV% went up…

    LMAO

    Jowles is lying.

    Jordan’s efg 5 goes down to 62.8 without Paul. It’s over 70 with Paul.

    With both Paul and Jordan on the floor, the Clippers have a 113.3 ORTG. With Paul and no Jordan, 112.2. With Jordan and no Paul, 98.3

    Jordan has a negative career OBPM (and a negative one last season) and minuscule RPM.

    Jordan’s usage goes up to 17.2 with Paul, but his TS goes below league average.

    With Paul his usage goes down a bit, but his TS and EFG skyrocket.

    Jowles hoped you wouldn’t look for yourself. He’s a turd.

    Jordan is a great finisher and good offensive rebounder, but his offensive impact is somewhere between negative and negligible. His positive impact comes on defense.

    WS and WP are far more favorable to the low usage Jordan than they are to Blake Griffin, and yet somehow ALL of the plus-minus stats show Griffin to have a dramatically greater impact on offense than Jordan, with and without Paul.

    Griffin’s efficiency is not nearly dependent on Paul as Jordan’s is, either, of course.

    Could there be a better example of the limitations of those two box score metrics?

    In the last two years, DeAndre Jordan has played 1738 possessions without Chris Paul with an eFG% of 65.8, about five points off his average (so yes, DeAndre is much better with Chris Paul, but still efficient without him).

    You should learn how to fucking read before you (hilariously) accuse someone of lying.

    In the last two years

    Try that nbawowy! query again, genius.

    You are the malignant, festering, unsightly wart of this site. Your opinions are nothing but hot air backed only by an unwavering faith in a celebrity athlete that you endlessly praise. When Carmelo goes, you will go. And you will get to watch him walk the middle of the road for the rest of his overhyped, underwhelming career. Someday, you will write 5,000 words on how Carmelo could have been a champion, but he won’t have been a champion. It’s going to be like sweet syrup in my mouth.

    And you will get to watch him walk the middle of the road for the rest of his overhyped, underwhelming career.

    I don’t even get how a guy who is routinely said to be overrated is overhyped or how his career is underwhelming in any context but a comparison to all-time greats like Lebron. It’s absurd how much you seem to enjoy shitting on a guy who has actually been a good and productive NBA player for the team you allegedly support and root for simply because he makes more money than you think he should make.

    @3

    He took 261 TSA on 1738 possessions without Paul (15% of possessions resulted in a TSA).

    1756 TSA in 12002 possessions with Chris Paul on the floor. (14.6%) This is over two years.

    Negligible difference, especially considering that players like Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers should (anecdotally) create fewer assisted-basket opportunities for him.

    It’s absurd how much you seem to enjoy shitting on a guy who has actually been a good and productive NBA player for the team you allegedly support and root for simply because he makes more money than you think he should make.

    “Good and productive” is where we disagree, especially given the assets traded for him, the opportunity cost of his max contract, and the NTC that makes his contract functionally worthless despite his new-found “bargain” status.

    As far as guys who have portraits of themselves in their living room go, he seems like a pretty #me7o guy. No questions about his character as a person, which makes my contempt for him entirely about his play and perceived value. That’s big for me. But playing? Nah, definitely overrated. Still.

    @10 agreed, thx for doing the research. As you know, I think low-volume/high-efficiency guys are grossly overrated by WP (also by WS but less so). I also think the negative impact of well below 50% FT% is totally lost in the data.

    Jordan is a very valuable player, but not my cup of tea.

    “Good and productive” is where we disagree, especially given the assets traded for him, the opportunity cost of his max contract, and the NTC that makes his contract functionally worthless despite his new-found “bargain” status.

    None of that has to do with his actual play on the court. Melo isn’t responsible for the decision making of the Knicks front office.

    And yes he’s been good and productive even if we’ll just agree to disagree on how good and how productive.

    Jordan’s turnover rate goes from 10.7% with Paul on the floor to 12.6% with him off the floor over the last 2 seasons.

    His usage goes from 16.5% with Paul on the floor to 16.7% with him off the floor.

    it would be interesting if NBA wowy had another year of data to see how DeAndre did with Collison and no CP3. Considering how well he shot before CP3 arrived, it might be that he’s significantly worse when Paul is off the court now because his backup is uniquely bad. His offensive efficiency might not be dependent on having an all time great PG-it might depend on having a decent one.

    I can’t fucking post. If I could, I’d be able to show the numbers from the larger, three-year sample that show that Jordan’s numbers suffer dramatically without Paul.

    In fact, the Clippers offense has been better with just Paul on the floor than Jordan and Paul, and there’s a night and day difference in their offensive on/off numbers.

    Jowles was merely cherry-picking.

    Jordan’s turnover rate goes from 10.7% with Paul on the floor to 12.6% with him off the floor over the last 2 seasons.

    His usage goes from 16.5% with Paul on the floor to 16.7% with him off the floor.

    I am totally fine with the extrapolation that Austin Rivers puts the ball in less advantageous places than Chris Paul does. Honestly, I think I could toss lobs to DeAndre Jordan for 30 minutes a night and come down with a few assists.

    If you guys go into the spam comment section, you’ll see the numbers.

    Simply do a three year query, 2013-16, using the three combinations: Jordan, no Paul; Paul, no Jordan; Jordan and Paul.

    The 10,000 minute sample Jowles doesn’t want you to see

    Jordan with Paul: 71.2 efg%, 62.9 ts, 1.15 PPP

    Jordan without Paul: 64.4 efg%, 59.1 ts, 1.06 PPP (increase in to %)

    Also, we have adjusted on-off metrics to help us with understanding impact.

    Jordan has had a negative OBPM every year of his career but one. Paul has been in the top 5 in the NBA his whole career.

    Jordan’s efficiency with Paul has very little impact on the Clippers offense. In fact, the Clippers are BETTER with just Paul on the floor and not Jordan over the maximum query period for wowy.

    I am totally fine with the extrapolation that Austin Rivers puts the ball in less advantageous places than Chris Paul does. Honestly, I think I could toss lobs to DeAndre Jordan for 30 minutes a night and come down with a few assists.

    This has nothing to do with DeAndre’s turnover rate. An all-time great offensive player shouldn’t see a 2% increase in his turnover simply because Austin Rivers is on the floor instead of Chris Paul despite a negligible difference in his usage.

    And when you combine the scoring efficiency drop with his turnover drop, that 1.06 PPP without Paul is quite middling.

    Over that same period, Melo has a 1.10 PPP.

    This has nothing to do with DeAndre’s turnover rate. An all-time great offensive player shouldn’t see a 2% increase in his turnover simply because Austin Rivers is on the floor instead of Chris Paul despite a negligible difference in his usage.

    Like how this year, Kevin Durant’s TOV% went from 11.3% to 15% when Russell Westbrook was off the floor? Damn, must not be an all-time great offensive player.

    Also, we have adjusted on-off metrics to help us with understanding impact.

    “Also, we have this other statistic called WP48 that I disregard because My Precious is rated poorly by it, but I won’t talk about that because it doesn’t say what I want it to say about DeAndre Jordan’s numbers with and without Chris Paul.”

    k

    What have we learned today?

    That despite Jordan’s gaudy scoring efficiency, his 3 dunks and 4.5 field goals per game really say nothing about his offensive impact.

    He’s been a net negative offensive player his entire career. His numbers suffer dramatically without Paul. And the Clippers are better offensively when Chris Paul ISN’T playing alongside Deandre Jordan.

    “Like how this year, Kevin Durant’s TOV% went from 11.3% to 15% when Russell Westbrook was off the floor? Damn, must not be an all-time great offensive player.”

    Yes, because there are no interaction effects, any comparison always disproves it. Again, all interaction effect comparisons are the same because interaction effects aren’t REAL.

    Remember when Jowles was citing the fact that Durant’s efficiency was not correlated to RW’s on-court presence?

    Notice how quickly he’s losing track of his own argument.

    Like how this year, Kevin Durant’s TOV% went from 11.3% to 15% when Russell Westbrook was off the floor? Damn, must not be an all-time great offensive player.

    Durant 30.5 usage with Westbrook on the floor and 36.4 usage when Westbrook sits.

    Also he has a 13.8 TOV% and 30.4 AST% without Westbrook on the floor the last 2 years versus a 10.3 TOV% and 19.4 AST% with Westbrook on the floor.

    I wonder what happened to Jowles? His posting usage curiously plummets in these situations.

    Also he has a 13.8 TOV% and 30.4 AST% without Westbrook on the floor the last 2 years versus a 10.3 TOV% and 19.4 AST% with Westbrook on the floor.

    Cool. So we agree that he’s not elite, because, as you said:

    An all-time great offensive player shouldn’t see a 2% increase in his turnover simply because Austin Rivers is on the floor instead of Chris Paul despite a negligible difference in his usage.

    Except we’re talking the dropoff from Westbrook to Cameron Payne.

    Remember when Jowles was citing the fact that Durant’s efficiency was not correlated to RW’s on-court presence?

    Again, what the fuck are you talking about?

    Durant had a 62.4 TS% with Westbrook off the floor over the last two season (including postseason). With both players on the floor, he has a 61 TS%.

    So… like… what’s your conclusion? My point is there is no marked dropoff in Durant’s shooting efficacy without Westbrook (which was the point of the initial comparison, since a poster asserted that Westbrook created Durant’s high efficiency through floor spacing).

    Ruru, there were six centers in the NBA with a positive OBPM last season. DeAndre was 9th in the league. You don’t know how to use your new stat

    Wait, are you actually implying that there should be some kind of positional adjustment for a plus/minus stat?

    That makes so sense.

    Yes, compared to other centers, Jordan is a decent offensive player. But there were only 9 centers in the league whose teams played better on offense (adjusted) with them on the floor (Jordan wasn’t one).

    Guess what?

    Big men, by in large, aren’t helping NBA offenses like WP tells you they should. They are largely hurting offenses and helping defenses, just like Jordan does.

    Who’da thunk?

    Is Jordan a really good player? Hell yeah.

    Does he help his team on offense relative to the average player? No.

    Jordan wasn’t even in the top 120 in the league last year, and he barely cracked the top 5 on his own team, which outside of Paul and Griffin on offense, is quite awful.

    But the guy is great defensively and a huge reason they win.

    Guess what?

    More hot air.

    Who’da thunk?

    TIL that ruruland loves Win Shares (remember how he talked about Carmelo’s position w/r/t WS ’11-’14) until he’s asked about DeAndre Jordan (who was #9 in Offensive WS in 2014-15), at which point he becomes a diehard OBPM proponent.

    DeAndre Jordan, to me, definitely does help an NBA offense. No GM will be able to build a top NBA offense around him, but his gravitational pull as a dive man is unlike I’ve seen. That’s valuable. He’s not exactly Karl Towns but he’s valuable.

    Wins produced doesn’t say DeAndre Jordan helps his team on offense; it says he helped his team win basketball games. DeAndre, despite a complete inability to shoot, despite a limited ability to get looks without a decent PG, and despite being one of the worst FT shooters in NBA history is still one of the better offensive centers in the NBA by your chosen metrics. Seems like a valuable player to me.

    I only mention WS because it’s a stat people use here often.

    Oh ok that’s a perfectly good justification definitely not at all any kind of post hoc justification or anything I totally believe you ; )

    No GM will be able to build a top NBA offense around him, but his gravitational pull as a dive man is unlike I’ve seen. That’s valuable.

    Also when he dives, he dunks. And dunks are a great basketball play because they have an extremely high rate of success. It’s not just his “synergizing effects.” It’s also that dunks are worth 2 points and he dunks the ball a lot. Like a lot a lot. Like as many as the Celtics and Blazers had as teams last year.

    @29

    Seriously dude? Durant upped his usage 6% and assist rate 11% with a 3% increase in his turnover rate.

    Jordan isn’t upping his usage or assist rate and his scoring efficiency drops while his turnover rate jumps 2% without Paul. The guy is a really good player and giving surplus value for sure on his contract but he’s not an elite offensive talent and nothing about what Durant does without Westbrook makes whatever point you think you’re making.

    Jordan isn’t upping his usage or assist rate and his scoring efficiency drops while his turnover rate jumps 2% without Paul

    Is a 2% change in TOV% even significant?

    Is anyone arguing that Jordan is an elite offensive talent? I thought we were bickering over how much credit for his offense should be given to CP3. His second best offensive season was before Paul was on the Clippers. I don’t think it’s debatable that he can be a pretty valuable player on offense for a big man without CP3. In the last 3 seasons, he’s ranked 11th, 1st and 9th in espn’s ORPM. By ruru’s OBPM, he’s been 6th, 3rd and 9th. Relative to the other guys playing his position he seems like a good offensive player, and if he could hit free throws he’d be terrific, but that’s got shit to do with CP3.

    @DRed

    A 2% change is pretty significant especially considering his lower usage.

    And fair enough if that was the debate whatever. I just think that the idea of Jordan being some kind of high end offensive talent is silly, though I’ll agree that what he does certainly has value offensively and it’s one that I don’t gets fully captured by the box score. I think it’s a bit easier to do what DeAndre does than say what Paul or Blake do offensively, but they also benefit imo from his rolling to the rim and more than them role players like Redick and SF du jour for them probably get more 3 point opportunities because of his gravity when he gets going to the rim.

    Tbh I think the trio of Paul, Blake and Jordan all complement each other very well, but Jordan is the one I think is most indispensable because of what he brings to the table defensively, whereas in some ways Paul and Blake can adjust their games when required if the other is absent through injury. We saw that in Blake’s awesome 2013/14 when Paul missed some time and Paul in his NOP days as well as last year when Blake was out injured.

    A 2% change is pretty significant especially considering his lower usage.

    nah, you’re making up a story and then making the statistic significant to your story

    Comments are closed.