Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Thursday, September 21, 2017

New York Signs Hardaway Jr (to an Offer Sheet) for $71M/4 Years

A number of news outlets are reporting that:

Restricted Atlanta Hawks free agent Tim Hardaway Jr. has signed a four-year, $71 million offer sheet with the New York Knicks, league sources told ESPN.

Hardaway, a 25-year-old shooting guard, has spent the past two seasons in Atlanta after spending his first two in New York.

The Hawks will have two days to match the offer. which contains a 15 percent trade kicker and a player option in the fourth year, per ESPN sources.

Tim Hardaway Jr. isn’t an awful player (see: Waiters, Dion). He’s an efficient scorer (56.8% ts%, 19.1 pts/36 last year) and is only 25 years old, so the Knicks would presumably get his best years. Hardaway also has good assist and turnover numbers as well (3.0 ast/36, 1.8 to/36). According to 82games, Hardaway appears to be a neutral defender (-0.4 pts/100).

I don’t hate this deal because Hardaway will likely keep some value during the life of his contract, unlike Joakim Noah or even Carmelo Anthony. The next Knicks GM should be able to get something in return for Hardaway, and not have to look for a place to unload his contract. [EDIT: Reports are that the contract has a 15% trade kicker, so *le sigh*.]

But there’s plenty to dislike about the signing. Shooting guard is a position the Knicks don’t really need. New York already has Courtney Lee and promising rookie Damyean Dotson. In fact the Knicks have more immediate critical needs at PG and SF (and if they trade ‘Melo, PF). If the front office wanted to put a stronger team on the floor in 2017, Tim Hardaway Jr. won’t make as much of an impact. He’s not a huge upgrade over Courtney Lee. Additionally he stunts the growth of Dotson, who unless Lee is moved, won’t see many minutes at MSG.

And while the Knicks are only slightly overpaying Hardaway (he most likely would have gotten $12M – $15M on the market), it’s not the right time for them to commit so much money. New York would be smarter to go with a cheaper option (Justin Holiday), build around their young core of players (Porzingis, Hernangomez, Ntilikina, Dotson, Kuzminskas), and save that money for a top notch free agent that can integrate with what develops from their young talent.

The problem with this acquisition is that is smacks of nearsightedness. It’s the same tactic that over the last 17 years has doomed the team. The Knicks are not in a position for a quick fix. They are not a score-first shooting guard away from competing with Cleveland or Boston (or even Washington or Toronto). Deals like this might take them from 31 wins to 35 wins or even 40 wins. But by aiming for that mark, they’ll always miss the opportunity to build a 50 or 60 win team. And more often than not, with splashy moves like this they’ll fail to reach even their meager short term goals.

Signing Hardaway for 4 years at $18M per year isn’t awful in a vacuum, but the 2017 New York Knicks are not the right context for this deal.

209 comments on “New York Signs Hardaway Jr (to an Offer Sheet) for $71M/4 Years

  1. Hubert

    On the one hand, I want Atlanta to match, because this is not what we need.

    On the other hand, I’m afraid that if they do match, we’ll do something worse. This offer sheet indicates to me that the knicks are back to aiming for the 8 seed instead of rebuilding.

  2. Z-man

    I just watched some game highlights from last year vs. vs. Houston, SA and Cavs. I have to say that physically and game-wise, he reminded me a lot of JR Smith.

    And it occurred to me: Is a 25 yo JR Smith with a higher b-ball IQ, cleaner lifestyle, and better work ethic worth $15-18 mill per for 4 years?

  3. Clyde's suit

    Just when I start to hope that this team will finally starting making moves that seem to be in their long term best interest, we do something like this….Damn!
    Hardaway is a nice young SG but we need a PG and someone to take minutes from Melo and this move doesn’t solve either need. If Dotson really is a stud, why sign a guy that will keep him from getting on the court?

    Maybe there is a deal in the works for Lee?

    Damn Damn Damn….

  4. Hubert

    This is also the kind of deal that gets you out of the top 5 picks and into the low portion of the lottery. Deals like this are why we drafted Frank instead of Fultz.

  5. Z-man

    It’s also fair to say that the value of this deal hinges on whether we can deal Courtney Lee. Although it’s also fair to say that Lee is a good enough defender that he can play some small-ball 3, or maybe Lee can play some spot PG minutes. A lineup of Dotson, TH2, Lee, Melo, and KP is a pretty lethal shooting lineup.

    I know I’m grasping at straws here, but what else is there to do?

  6. ptmilo

    I feel like ppl are overrating Bradley. I don’t even like Morris but he and Bradley are not that far apart. And Morris has a value contract. This is way better than giving away Smart or Crowder for free.

    Meanwhile SVG just paid 21m for Langston then traded for a better Langston.

  7. Bruno Almeida

    like I said before, he’s not terrible, it’s not like another Noah contract where it’s 100% obvious it’s going to suck.

    but the problem is why the hell him, and why the hell a player option + trade kicker.

    IF, and that’s a major if, he can keep up his form from the end of last season this might end up being only bad, but it is so shortsighted.

    if nothing else changes this will be once again a 30 win team on a year the draft has 4 elite prospects… thats incredivly depressing… I’m ok with the Knicks sucking, Im not ok with becoming the Charlotte Hornets.

  8. Z-man

    We just waived Marshall Plumlee. No biggie there.

    I’m not so OK with the Knicks sucking in KP’s year 3. We’re in damage control mode with him now, and another horrific season might make him play out the string and leave.

  9. GoldClub

    #FIREMILLS

    We are the worst run franchise in all of sports

    Fucking. Player options, trade kickers…insanity

  10. Ntilakilla

    Deals like this are why we drafted Frank instead of Fultz.

    So we know if this is a good thing yet?

  11. TheOakmanCometh

    THJ is not going to stop us from sucking. He’s not going to stop Porzingis from wanting to leave. All he’s going to do is add a couple wins that take us out of contention for the #1 pick.

  12. TheOakmanCometh

    And if by some miracle we make enough decent moves in 3 years to be good, he can just opt out and squeeze us for more money!

  13. chrisk06811

    Is he worth it? I don’t know. It’s funny how he had to leave here for ATL to improve. So, if he comes back, will that improvement continue?

    I think the answer here is…..If he’s worth it, ATL will match. if he’s not, they won’t. Either way kinda sucks for us.

    In today’s NBA, $18M / year is about right for the player he was after the Korver trade. If that continues.

  14. Bruno Almeida

    This team will not suck if Porzingis himself develops and becomes a star, that’s on him. I still can’t understand the idea that the Knicks need to get crappy veterans so he can ‘become’ a star.

    if he can’t develop to be a star while the Knicks win 30-35 games who cares if he leaves? If he’s not a star we’re rebuilding again anyway, and getting bad veterans just so he can develop in a slightly less awful team is precisely what will once again make sure the Knicks won’t ever get stars.

  15. d-mar

    I feel like ppl are overrating Bradley. I don’t even like Morris but he and Bradley are not that far apart. And Morris has a value contract. This is way better than giving away Smart or Crowder for free.

    I don’t think Bradley is overrated at all. I’d take him on my team any time, one of the best on ball defenders in the league and a decent shot maker. I think the Celtics are really going to miss him, and if they lose Crowder also, they may actually win less games than last year.

  16. danvt

    Oy. Any chance the hawks match this?

    I thought heads would be exploding around here. I guess he’s a bit better than he was but this is not what I was looking to read about today. I was really looking forward to a deal for Carmelo. Maybe we’d even get a pick or a pg. Maybe the salary we took on would only a year. I had visions of cap relief dancing in my head.

    Silver lining, does this mean we have to renounce Rose?

    False hopes, Mills has his next moves in place. Lee for Bradley…

    Probably not. We’re twisting in the wind. Grasping at straws. Insert your own metaphor here.

  17. TheOakmanCometh

    Average starters are worth about $15m AAV on the open market. THJ is a below average starter making above average starter money.

    On a contending team, it would be an overpay but a defensible one. On team that should be bottoming out and is years away from winning a playoff series, it is nonsensical and destructive.

  18. Cock Jowles, Not a Knicks Fan Because Fuck This Team

    I thought heads would be exploding around here.

    Did you read the last couple threads? No one is defending this.

  19. Igno-Bot 3000

    @16 No it’s not!! People need to stop talking themselves into this. If he was worth this, somebody else would have offered it! Hell, Atlanta would match it!

    You can convince yourself that he’s worth this much money (youth, improvement last year, ‘today’s market’), but players are only really ‘worth’ what teams are willing to bid for them.

    I think he’ll be OK for them, although I’m not sure what their path forward is with no PG. I’m assuming that Melo will be traded sooner than later and the team is incomplete as-is.

  20. Mike R

    The celtics are weird man. I’m not so sure they are a better team then last year if Bradley and crowder are both traded for pretty much nothing. Seems like we could have gotten Bradley for oquinn.

    I think I’m more upset that the knicks didn’t bring in teodesic. For all our stock in euro players you would have thought we would have went out and got this guy. Two years at 12 mill is worth the risk. If he sucks so what it’s only two years and it’s not much money in relation to the the cap. I think we really missed out on that one. Kid would have really helped improved kp’s game immensely.

  21. charley

    I saw Damyean Dotson dribble the ball coast to coast on one play in yesterday’s summer league game. Point guard?

  22. danvt

    #22. I expected more vitriol from Kurylo though that was hardly an endorsement.

    No one mentioned THJ in the last threads.

    I see Bradly is a Piston. Damn. That would have been great.

    Being a Knick fan is like Charlie Brown and Lucy with the football.

    Shit shit shit.

  23. TheOakmanCometh

    You know what else sucks about this deal? Atlanta was one of the teams competing with us in the tank sweepstakes. Taking THJ from them makes them worse and us better.

  24. Z-man

    I also like Bradley a lot and think that the Celts will sorely miss his All-NBA-level on-ball defense.

  25. charley

    Hang in there, Dwight is coming.

    Sources: Knicks have expressed interest in signing Dwight Buycks. Buycks impressed NYK in SL, where he averaged 17.8 PPG & 4.2 APG for DAL.— Ian Begley (@IanBegley) July 7, 2017

  26. Bruno Almeida

    @28

    reub, is that you?

    how exactly have I caused THJr to be signed to a 4 year 71 million contract?

    because I wanted Jackson out, the guy who gave Noah a 4 year 72 million contract?

  27. charley

    Waiving Plumlee may be opening the door for Meyers Leonard. Prepare yourselves, Phil haters.

  28. Nick C.

    No one here (with very few exceptions) should be complaining. You caused this.

    Caused what??? Did we really want the Mensa member who thought signing Joakim Noah and trading for Derrick Rose was a good idea? Every person on here thought those moves sucked as soon as they were made.

  29. Bruno Almeida

    can’t we just ban him again, or should we wait until he makes rape apologies again?

  30. Frank O.

    Do other teams reclaim players like this?
    I mean, are the Knicks truly in a closed loop?

  31. charley

    Actually, getting Harkless, Leonard, Hartenstein and a Portland first for Melo wouldn’t be the worst thing ever.

  32. No Knicks Lead is Safe

    Charley Rosen posting as Reub really would explain so much over the last year.

  33. briand

    The problem with this acquisition is that is smacks of nearsightedness. It’s the same tactic that over the last 17 years has doomed the team. The Knicks are not in a position for a quick fix. They are not a score-first shooting guard away from competing with Cleveland or Boston (or even Washington or Toronto). Deals like this might take them from 31 wins to 35 wins or even 40 wins. But by aiming for that mark, they’ll always miss the opportunity to build a 50 or 60 win team. And more often than not, with splashy moves like this they’ll fail to reach even their meager short term goals.

    This x 10000. The idea is to build a championship contender (or atleast consistent top 10 type team). Moves like this are killers. Makes the team slightly better in the short term (thus making the draft pick worst), while hamstringing the ability to sign a superstar down the road. Just dumb dumb dumb.

  34. Frank

    I think putting out a strong offer sheet to a RFA isn’t a bad idea as we will get all of that RFA’s prime years if the other team doesn’t match. Assuming Atlanta doesn’t match, it’ll remain to be seen whether Timmy was the right guy for that offer sheet. He was undeniably pretty good offensively last year, especially after the Korver trade and he started playing a lot more minutes as someone above mentioned. According to NBAwowy – from Jan 7 (day of Korver trade) to end of regular season, he had an eFG of 54.3 and a TS of 58.4 on a 22.4 usage. He kept his turnovers down and averaged 1.19 PPP and 1.17 PPS during that period of time (8.6 turnover rate which is very good), as well as 3.4 assists/36.

    So if you believe that post-Jan 7 Timmy is the new and real Timmy, then he becomes pretty interesting.

    If you look for all players in 2016-17 who averaged a TS of 58, 3.3+ assists/36, and a usage >22, the list is very impressive:

    Harden, Butler, Kawhi, LBJ, Curry, Isaiah, Giannis, Durant, CP3, Hayward, Lillard, Lowry, Conley, Jokic, Kyrie, Beal, McCollum, Paul George, Lou Williams.

    Out of all of those, none of them turned the ball over less than Timmy did (Timmy’s TOV% was 8.6%, next lowest was Kawhi at 9.1%).

    The question, as always with this team, is what he can do defensively. I just hope someone thought about that end of the court and saw something promising.

  35. SJK

    Even if you squint really hard to see THJ as a productive player, we now have three 2s and a 1 who is probably better suited to play the 2 in the first years of his career, so what are we doing?

    More than short sightedness, the move just smacks of “we can’t sit here and do nothing. shit. let’s just throw at offer at someone.” I mean, unless they trade Lee, what is the plan here?

  36. charley

    He could also be included in the Melo deal that is about to happen. Don’t worry about in ’cause Mills will handle it all.

  37. Clyde's suit

    We should have made a deal for Bradley. He would have been a really nice pick up if we were going to sign a SG. I have to believe there is a deal in the works to move Lee. Otherwise this makes no sense to me at all. I don’t even hate THJr as a player. I think he’s improved since he last wore a Knick uniform, he’s just not what we needed and I think it just keep us in a holding pattern instead the complete rebuild that is required.
    I guess we will sign Rondo now and shoot for the 8th seed in the east….Why or why do I root for this team…shit.

  38. chrisk06811

    my point on him and his value is, the only team that really knows his true value is Atlanta. He’s not worth this $$ unless he continues to improve. The team in the best position to assess that is Atl. If they don’t match, that tells me something.

    BTW, is there a trend here of guys playing well in the ATL system and then failing? I”m thinking Carroll for example.

  39. Frank

    @45 It looks like Lee may be going. For Okafor?

    say what?!?!

    BTW, is there a trend here of guys playing well in the ATL system and then failing? I”m thinking Carroll for example.

    Carroll had a bad knee injury in Toronto, hard to know whether he would’ve been good without it.

  40. Zanzibar

    Do you think Thibs might be interested in Lee/Lance/Kuz for Cole/Bjelica/2 2nd round picks? Lance’s career 3FG% > 40% and Lee shot over 40% last year. Both are vets and play acceptable defense. We shed enough salary to take Rondo on a 1 year deal and have greater cap flexibility in future.

  41. Owen

    I vented enough last night.

    I have to give it to THjr. I never thought he’d be an NBA player and he definitely was solid last year. I was wrong about him looks like. I also didnt realize what a solid season he had last year when the news broke. He was at least average which is definitely something. It’s still a horrible overpay and a horrible fit but you have to congratulate him on getting paid and sort of deserving it.

  42. ptmilo

    According to NBAwowy – from Jan 7 (day of Korver trade) to end of regular season, he had an eFG of 54.3 and a TS of 58.4 on a 22.4 usage. He kept his turnovers down and averaged 1.19 PPP and 1.17 PPS during that period of time (8.6 turnover rate which is very good), as well as 3.4 assists/36.

    these samples are too small to be meaningful. if you add his 6 crappy playoff games to his back half performance there is no significant difference between first half and back half per 36.

  43. Frank

    these samples are too small to be meaningful. if you add his 6 crappy playoff games to his back half performance there is no significant difference between first half and back half per 36.

    it was 1400 minutes – that’s not that small a sample. We went on for 100 comments about Ron Baker’s 800 minutes and how they proved he’d never be good.

  44. swiftandabundant

    I’m going to defend this signing (its what I do, go against the main thought stream of this blog).

    OK, so yeah, maybe this blows up in our faces. But everyone who is saying this is such a Knicksy signing, I would just say this.

    This signing is based on the possible future production of a player just getting ready to enter his prime years. Hardaway is 25 years old and has improved every single season in the league. He can get buckets and is super athletic and has improved defensively every year. This signing is in the hopes that he will continue to improve and if Frank is indeed a PG, a Frank/Hardaway back court could be a nice pairing of offense and defense. Can’t you see Frank getting a steal and then throwing an outlet pass down court to a speeding Hardaway for an easy transition bucket? When Hardaway’s contract is up he will still be only 29. We now have KP, Willie H, Frank, Hardaway, Dotson and Ron…all under the age of 26. That’s a nice young core there.

    Unlike past free agent signings (and trades), this isn’t based on past performance. We aren’t signing Noah based on former DPOY years or Rose based on former MVP years, hoping they regain form. We aren’t getting STAT at the end of his prime years. Or an older Bargs hoping a new environment will fix his flaws. Its a future looking move. So I like it for that reason.

    Of course I’ve been wrong before, as Jowles loves to point out, and its not a move I would have made. But assuming Melo is indeed getting traded soon and Lee is on his way out too, I like this move the more I think about it.

  45. ptmilo

    it was 1400 minutes – that’s not that small a sample. We went on for 100 comments about Ron Baker’s 800 minutes and how they proved he’d never be good.

    it is a small sample by definition if 6 additional playoff games can eradicate the delta you think you see. two rons don’t make a right.

  46. ClashFan

    @57
    I don’t think it is the player that is the issue here nearly as much as the fit and $$ allocated.

    The fit part could be mitigated quickly by moving Lee in a decent deal. Clearing most of his $$ would be nice, but finding a team to either take him into its cap space or send back short/expiring contracts would be okay. But, who? The worry now is that, like the Celtics have found out, once teams know that you want to just dump some salary, they get tough to deal with.

    The bigger issue is the overpay. Of course we’re speculating, but if the Hawks do not match, you wonder how much of an overpay. A decent estimate right now is $20-25m, and then there’s the trade kicker that will make him very hard to move if the deal ends up being a mistake.

  47. Ben R

    It’s not really the move that is bad it is the team making it. THJr for 4 years 60 million is a defendable move so 4 years 71 million isn’t that much worse. The problem is we don’t need a two guard and we have other gaping holes in the roster.

    We have zero point guards and since Carmelo is as good as gone we have Thomas and Kuzminskas as our only small forwards neither of which is a long term piece or a short term starter. Meanwhile at the two we have a good veteran starter (Lee), two younger players on cheap contracts (Baker, Randle) and both our rookies (Dotson, Ntilikina) and now THJr.

    Whose our PG? Who will play SF once Melo is gone? This move answers neither of those questions.

  48. KnickfaninNJ

    I don’t mind Plumlee getting cut. He has a lot of energy, which is always nice; but in the three summer league games I saw he didn’t look better than last year, and, if anything, looked worse than he should have. He could get rebounds, but sometimes fumbled them, and missed a lot of close shots. We have enough bigs, and, if we need another, we could try Labeyrie, who looked better than Plumlee in summer league.

  49. bidiong

    We’re back to doing things the old Knicks way. Have to always sign free agents to the longest amount of years possible with the player option. This team sucks. Now we’re going to make an asinine trade for Okafor.

  50. Bruno Almeida

    I do hope that the THJr signing means that the Knicks are commited to seeing what they got in Ntilikina as the starting PG. I’m well aware that he might suck initially but at least give the kid a chance, hes got the athletic tools and the mind to do it.

    if no more dumb moves are made this is still a salvageable off-season if Melo indeed gets traded (and better if Lee can be traded for something useful)

  51. heavencent35

    So THJR is the first player drafted by the Knicks to be signed long term after his rookie season.
    I heard we outbid ourselves by 20m as the hawks is only willing it pay him 4/40. Too bad k I ka what are you doing.

  52. Brian Cronin

    Why the fuck would we want Okafor?

    Maybe they plan on trading Willy for a point guard? But seriously, i have no idea.

  53. ClashFan

    @64
    Yes, but Frank is going to need to have his minutes managed. He’s never played major minutes over a long season before.

    I’m okay with him and Ron handling most of the PG duties, but the Knicks could still use a cheap veteran in the mix, just NOT Rondo or Rose. Please.

    Maybe Lee can be in a deal that nets a vet backup PG with 1 or 2 years left on his deal?

  54. Brian Cronin

    If Wily goes in a trade for Okafor I’m done.

    Being a Knicks fan is like checking into the Hotel California. You’re never going to leave.

  55. ClashFan

    Hey, yesterday I read a SBNation site that suggested the Celtics could trade Smart to the Knicks for Willy.

    First I laughed at that, then I started to worry…

  56. TheOakmanCometh

    We should not dump Lee at the first opportunity just to make room for THJ. Lee is an unobtrusive player who can play alongside anybody. He can come off the bench and play 28 mpg with long stretches as the nominal SF.

    A lineup that includes Frank, THJ, Lee, and Lance as the 1-4 would be very switchable defensively. Not amazing defensive talent, but very switchable. It would be fun to see those four plus Willy or Zingis at center.

  57. kevin5318

    We have Dotson, Lee, Baker and Frank who will all play some minutes at SG. Lee is the odd man out if Atlanta doesn’t match.

  58. Jack Bauer

    The issue isn’t if Hardaway will keep improving and turn into a useful player, it’s the overpay and use of resources and cap space on the wrong position. Some or all of that money should have been spent to pick up a serviceable point guard. This team is abysmal again at point guard unless Frank comes in and kills it, very highly unlikely. Why is it they everyone on this blog can see that issue, but the dumbasses getting paid hundreds of thousands of dollars running the Knicks cannot?? It is truly unexplainable. The rudderless ship drifting aimlessly through another wasted season. KP is not going to sign on to stay with this dumpster fire after his rookie deal if they don’t get smart pronto.

    In other news James Jones signed with Miami for 4 Years @ $60,000,0000. Incredible, I thought Riles was smart

  59. DS

    The problem with this acquisition is that is smacks of nearsightedness. It’s the same tactic that over the last 17 years has doomed the team.

    Exactly. In the NBA, there is little reason to be middle of the pack. And yet we splurge on the best garbage available to us and never stack our chips for something worthwhile.

  60. ClashFan

    Detroit renounced KCP, so he’s now unrestricted. I wonder what he’ll get vs. THJ?

  61. Ben R

    Miami is having just a terrible off season. Waiters, Johnson, Olynyk – 4 years 160million. At least we’re not the only idiot at the table.

  62. Jack Bauer

    If Atlanta matches the Knicks can sign KCP to the same offer sheet and continue to show they are imbeciles

  63. TheOakmanCometh

    Being a Knicks fan is like checking into the Hotel California. You’re never going to leave.

    Honestly Brian, I’m seriously considering stepping away from this team. It would be hard, but if I don’t watch the games and don’t read the articles or go on the blogs, it might be possible.

    It really is an abusive relationship. We stand by them as loyal fans and they spit in our faces time and time again. It really is one humiliation after another. This team is a laughingstock. Not a bad team, a true laughingstock. They are the symbol of ineptitude and dysfunction not just in the NBA, but all of sports.

    Just in the last year, we signed the worst contract of the 2016 offseason, the worst contract of the 2017 offseason, traded for a guy in the middle of a rape trial, drafted another rapist, didn’t punish a player for going AWOL, allowed the coach and players to twist in the wind trying to explain that unexplained disappearance, tried to trade our franchise player because he missed an exit meeting, planted stories with a shill reporter in a public attempt to embarrass and ostracize our highest-paid player, had our team president give cryptic and condescending public statements whenever he opened his mouth, forced our coach to run an offense that all the players hated, forced our coach to retain an assistant who was a spy for the team president, forced our coach to hand over defensive responsibilities to an assistant with a horrible track record of coaching defense, had one star player yell at the other star player for praising the triangle, allowed the team president to handle the draft and then immediately fired him, picked up a 2-year option on that team president before firing him, and had no plan to hire a replacement.

    Again, that’s just in the last 12 months. This franchise has a cancer in it. Something bone deep.

  64. Frank

    it is a small sample by definition if 6 additional playoff games can eradicate the delta you think you see. two rons don’t make a right.

    I don’t know if we’re looking at the same periods of time.

    From Oct –> Jan 7 – THJ had a TS of 55.1 and a usage of 23.
    From Jan 7 –> end of season – THJ had a TS of 58.4 and usage of 22.4
    If you include the playoffs, then from Jan 7 –> end of season he had a TS of 56.5 and a usage of 22.5.

    so he had a few bad games in the playoffs? happens.

  65. chrisk06811

    Any idea what the Atl message board is saying about matching?

    I could check myself but I’m like Melo on D…..too lazy

  66. Frank

    @80 – for the record, since I know THJ will find this in 2024 and use it against me – while I don’t think the THJ offer sheet was a good idea (I’d be more ok with it if it looked like Waiters’s offer sheet), there have been plenty of bad contracts handed out. I’m not sure this one is the worst.

    Pretty much every contract handed out by the Heat feels worse to me, for instance.

    The “bone deep” thing you’re talking about is the owner. That’s an easy one.

  67. Bruno Almeida

    @82

    on reddit, probably the dumbest place on earth to discuss basketball, they are saying that ATL should never match it… really says something.

    at least the Heat are destroying their future more effectively than the Knicks, that’s a silver lining I can get behind.

  68. stratomatic

    The Knicks now have 2 1/2 bad contracts.

    1. Noah
    2. Timmy
    1/2. Melo

    But there’s a huge difference between Noah and Timmy.

    Noah was an overpay for too long a time period for a player that was clearly on the decline. There was no way it could ever turn into anything but a worse contract (and it did).

    Timmy is an overpay, but he’s an improving player that might grow into the cost and be peaking at the end of it. It could still look OK at some point.

    The thing I am worrying about is the Melo trade. If we bring back Harkless, I’m not in love with that contract, but I can live with it. If Leonard comes back with him, that’s a disaster scenario. We’d be loaded with 3-4 bad contracts for several years, not a very good team, and nowhere to go. At that point I’d prefer just keeping Melo, suffering for another year with him, and hoping he has a good enough season to opt out.

    We still need a starting PG. We have to find a trade for Lee that somehow lands us a serviceable PG that can defend a little because Timmy is not a defender even though he’s better than he used to be.

  69. JK47

    If it wasn’t for this blog, I’d have stepped away from the Knicks many years ago. I like this blog way more than I like this pathetic loser basketball team.

    This move isn’t anything new, it’s the exact kind of move the Knicks always make. Overpay for the guy who gets pointzzz and doesn’t play much defense. Sign “win now” players when you should be using cap space to acquire assets. Show no understanding of the win curve. Put together a team that is bad and will win 30 games, but that is also annoyingly good enough to avoid a top lottery selection. Same as it ever was.

  70. Bruno Almeida

    @86

    I agree 100%… had to step away for a while because work was really hard, and I couldn’t stand the reub effect, but my feelings are the same.

  71. stratomatic

    Hey, yesterday I read a SBNation site that suggested the Celtics could trade Smart to the Knicks for Willy.

    First I laughed at that, then I started to worry…

    If something like that happened, we would have to resort to demonstrations, picketing, organized boycotting, and civil disobedience.

  72. Frank

    If it wasn’t for this blog, I’d have stepped away from the Knicks many years ago. I like this blog way more than I like this pathetic loser basketball team.

    This move isn’t anything new, it’s the exact kind of move the Knicks always make. Overpay for the guy who gets pointzzz and doesn’t play much defense. Sign “win now” players when you should be using cap space to acquire assets. Show no understanding of the win curve. Put together a team that is bad and will win 30 games, but that is also annoyingly good enough to avoid a top lottery selection. Same as it ever was.

    +1000
    same here

    that said – at the very least, Timmy is 24-25 years old, and if you believe in his growth curve, then he might not be a bad value later. Think about the Avery Bradley and Mike Conley contracts (the one before last summer) — those were both thought to be overpays at the time, but then ended up being great deals. I don’t think Timmy’s contract will ever be considered a great deal, but it might not be that terrible in retrospect. The bigger issue is that we’re not ready to win right now, and if Timmy DOES in fact improve enough to make the contract a reasonable value, it might just mess up next year’s tank.

    The Noah signing was much much worse.

    *sigh*. I was really looking forward to a good tank job next season. 2019-20, though, should be a year that we try to be good.

  73. Bruno Almeida

    meanwhile the Grizzlies get Ben McLemore, who similar to THJr is young and had a spike in his shooting percentages, for 2 years 10.7 million.

    it keeps getting better.

  74. TheOakmanCometh

    there have been plenty of bad contracts handed out. I’m not sure this one is the worst.

    This has actually been a relatively sane offseason. Considering not just dollar amount but also team situation, the contenders for worst contract so far are:

    -Blake Griffin: 5 years, $173m
    -Kelly Olynyk: 4 years, $50m
    -George Hill: 3 years, $57m (3rd year partially guaranteed)
    -Zach Randolph: 2 years, $24m
    -Otto Porter: 4 years, $106m
    -James Johnson: 4 years, $60m
    -Tim Hardaway: 4 years, $71m (trade kicker, player option)

    Of those 7, only 3 were signed by teams who have no chance to win: Sacramento and the Knicks. And while Z-Bo takes playing time away from Sacramento’s young bigs and Hill takes time away from their young guards, Z-Bo at least is on a short, inexpensive contract while Hill’s 3rd year in only partially guaranteed. Hardaway is on a longer deal for more money on a contract that gives him all the power and isn’t as good as Hill.

    I guess you can make a case for any of these 7 guys based on your own priorities, but Hardaway’s contract is damn awful either way, considering our team needs.

  75. Grocer

    On sober reflection in the cold light of day, this isn’t the worst thing possible. Yes, it’s a fairly egregious overpay at a position where we didn’t have any pressing need. It’s dumb, but it’s ‘big poison pill offer for Lin’ dumb, not ‘big overpay for injury prone center who’s already declining’ dumb. At least age-wise THJ mostly fits into the timeline of our young guys. Overpaying for improving guys entering their prime is leaps and bounds better than overpaying for declining guys exiting their prime.

  76. stratomatic

    Regarding how Timmy fits given that we already had Lee at SG.

    I’m not sure why this isn’t sinking in, but without Rose and Melo, the Knicks have 1 scorer (KP). If you think KP’s season last year was a disappointment, I’m glad we won’t get to see what it would have been if was the #1 option and players like Lee, Baker, Willy, Lance, Sasha etc.. were behind him. He’d get doubled every night and it would be a shit storm. Sasha would turn into the #2 option. lmao

    The Knicks may be idiots, but they aren’t stupid enough to leave themselves in that position. That’s why I’ve been very afraid of Rose coming back. I knew they would realize they needed scoring and they might consider Rose the stop gap PG/scorer.

    What they did instead was bring in Timmy to become the #2 option. That makes Lee expendable. (most likely that’s why they were also considering Waiters)

    Lee is a pretty good player. I’ve defended him and his contract from the start. But on a team with no real #1 option (KP is not ready yet; even Phil admitted that) and no real #2 or #3 option, he’s not a very good fit.

    The team is constructed better with Timmy as SG even though we overpaid.

  77. Brian Cronin

    The Noah signing was much much worse.

    True, Steve Mills’ dumb moves are at least less dumb than Phil Jackson’s dumb moves. That is something. But it’s something like the whole “Phil wasn’t as bad as ____.” It’s damning with faint praise.

  78. Totes McGoats

    So wait…all the team had to do was wait one more day for KCP and offer possibly less for a better defender and adequate 3 point shooter? Like I said in the earlier threads- I’m ok with TH2 as a player. But the price is way wrong because we were bidding against ourselves a la H20’s 2nd Knicks deal when we had as good, if not better, in house options. That’s my beef. That extra TV money isn’t goin to last as long as folks think it will because of the CBA, so at some point (unless he makes a leap) we WILL be overpaying for Young Crossover Who Doesn’t Have A Crossover.

  79. Frank

    I think the James Johnson contract might be worst of the offseason TBH

    He’s a good defender and knows his limitations on offense, but he’ll be 34 at the end of that contract. There is zero chance he’ll be worth $15MM by the end of that.

    Olynyk isn’t great, but it’s not terrible.
    The Blake contract is very bad, especially given his injury concerns. That’s far more debilitating than the Timmy contract.

    George Hill is fine considering it’s only 3 years and he’s partially there as a mentor and the Kings don’t control all their draft picks.

    The Timmy contract isn’t good by any means. It’s also not the worst thing in the world. The worst part of it is that it doesn’t make sense for our team right now. If, say, San Antonio or another team that had plans to be good this year had offered him this contract, it’d make a lot more sense.

  80. Z-man

    Bruno, every metric I looked at suggests that THjr was WAY better than McLemore last year. Not a good comparison at all.

  81. Mike R

    I would say blakes contract is probably the worst of this offseason. Kind of like when we maxed amare. Way too many injury concerns I still think the clippers did an ok job tho with all things considered like getting something back for Paul

  82. Hubert

    I know I’m grasping at straws here, but what else is there to do?

    Not be a Knicks fan?

  83. Ben R

    On a seperate note why would Boston trade for Morris. He’s a fine player on a great contract but they already have their starters at the 3/4 (Hayward and Crowder) and two young forwards that need playing time (Brown and Tatum). Where does he fit?

    They need to move someone for a center and maybe a SG. I don’t see their end game.

  84. JK47

    As with all terrible Knick moves, the real reason this move is terrible is because of the opportunity cost. This is a concept that some fans don’t understand (the dearly departed and possibly returned reubcharley mocked the very concept of opportunity cost) and that the front office absolutely does not understand. Hardaway at 4/71 is bad value even in a vacuum, but when you consider what the Knicks SHOULD HAVE and COULD HAVE done with that cap space it reaches the level of Complete Tragedy.

    This is a salary cap league. The name of the game is to get surplus production out of your players. When you sign a guy to a $5M contract but he gives you $10M of value, that player nudges you ahead of .500. When you give a guy $17M and he gives you $12M of production, that player nudges you below .500. At his salary, THJ is a losing player. He is putting you in a hole. At best you’re breaking even with him. We’re locked into at least three and probably four years of a guy who is very unlikely to ever outperform his contract.

    Multiply this times the entire roster and that’s why this team wins 30-something games every year.

  85. TheOakmanCometh

    True, Steve Mills’ dumb moves are at least less dumb than Phil Jackson’s dumb moves. That is something. But it’s something like the whole “Phil wasn’t as bad as ____.” It’s damning with faint praise.

    -“At least Layden wouldn’t pass on Ron Artest like that idiot Ed Tapscott!”
    -“At least Isiah brings in young players unlike that idiot Layden!”
    -“At least Grunwald doesn’t sexually harass people like that idiot Isiah!”
    -“At least Phil doesn’t trade away draft picks like that idiot Grunwald!”
    -“At least Mills doesn’t sign aging vets like that idiot Phil!”

    Call me crazy, but I’m starting to notice a pattern…..

  86. JK47

    Favorite Knick rationalizations:
    “It’s not the absolute worst contract given out this offseason”
    “It’s not as bad as the horrendous contract we gave out last year”
    “It’s not as bad as some move Isiah made”

  87. TheOakmanCometh

    @108

    Exactly. Some Knick fans are like beaten dogs. If you merely slap us rather than beat us with a stick, we thank you for the great kindness.

  88. stratomatic

    The worst part of it is that it doesn’t make sense for our team right now. If, say, San Antonio or another team that had plans to be good this year had offered him this contract, it’d make a lot more sense.

    It makes sense if you think he’s going to improve and be peaking at the same time KP, FN, WH, and any other young players we accumulate along the way.

    IMO, the complaint here should be mostly about price and not whether it’s going to make us better. If he turns into a core long term player well worth his contract, I couldn’t be happier we got him when we could. I don’t care when or how we get good young players as long as the contracts are OK.

    What you don’t want to do is sign idiotic long term contract’s like Noah’s hoping to make yourself better in the short term even though he’ll be useless when the core young team is ready.

  89. Hubert

    @13 – so that’s your new name, eh Reub?

    Yes, we already know that picking 8th instead of 1st is a bad thing.

  90. stratomatic

    @JK47

    IMO you are exactly correct conceptually.

    The debate should be entirely about the contract, but the difference between this one and many other bad ones the Knicks have signed in the past is that you can make a pretty good case the best is ahead for Timmy. He may even grow into the contract next year. The same could not be said for Noah and many other bad contracts we’ve given out. That’s why even though I’m not happy about this contract, I’m not wildly upset yet either. I think the kid may break out and score 20 PPG on a 58% TS% next year.

  91. JK47

    The real problem here is that Steve Mills is still the de facto temp Player of Basketball Operations. He’s probably gonna do more stupid shit, because he’s obviously an idiot.

    Buckle up, and don’t get too attached to those first-round picks we haven’t traded away yet. We still need our “star” point guard. Gotta win during Melo’s window. Now that we have Timmeh we’re just one piece away. Win now. Always win now.

  92. Jack Bauer

    It only makes some sense if THJR can play point guard. Guess what, he can’t!
    Mills = Moron

  93. chrismcnealy

    @97
    I’m not sure why this isn’t sinking in, but without Rose and Melo, the Knicks have 1 scorer (KP). If you think KP’s season last year was a disappointment, I’m glad we won’t get to see what it would have been if was the #1 option and players like Lee, Baker, Willy, Lance, Sasha etc.. were behind him. He’d get doubled every night and it would be a shit storm…The Knicks may be idiots, but they aren’t stupid enough to leave themselves in that position. That’s why I’ve been very afraid of Rose coming back. I knew they would realize they needed scoring and they might consider Rose the stop gap PG/scorer. What they did instead was bring in Timmy to become the #2 option. That makes Lee expendable. (most likely that’s why they were also considering Waiters)

    +1
    I get all the knick bashing today, and yes they overpaid for timmy, but stratomatic had maybe the most rational take that i’ve seen. given these are the knicks i am not getting my hopes up in any big way, but please let’s give this another week or two to see what happens with Lee and/or Melo before we completely trash this move. i am well aware that hope as a knick fan is a dangerous thing but mills did show a lot of discipline in free agency until last night so just maybe he is confident on a pretty decent outcome with at least lee or melo. we’ll find out soon enough either way

  94. JK47

    mills did show a lot of discipline in free agency until last night

    Yes, we should all be very encouraged that it took Mills a week and a half to do something irredeemably stupid instead of ten minutes. I’m sure his next moves are going to be outstanding.

  95. Ben R

    I know I’m going to get creamed for this suggestion. But what if after the Hayward contract is signed we offered:
    Lee + O’Quinn + a top 5 protected 2018 1st for Crowder and Smart.

    It fixes the huge log jam in Boston and balances our roster. I know trading firsts sucks but Crowder and Smart are easily as good as a late lottery pick and they fit into our long term core. Boston probably says no but it would be worth trying.

  96. stratomatic

    @116

    Thanks.

    I’d be shocked if there aren’t more moves coming. We just have to hope they are good ones.

  97. Bruno Almeida

    @108

    that’s a perfect explanation.

    but somehow we know that Knicks fans will Stockholm syndrome themselves to believe in any move this dumpster fire of a franchise does, it took only one day for the same pattern to emerge.

  98. thenoblefacehumper

    I’m not saying THJ can’t get any better, but after three years in college and four in the NBA we can be reasonably sure he’s already made the bulk of the improvements he’s going to make. I truly do not see a path to him being worth even close to this contract, and even if I did that still wouldn’t explain us making moves that make zero sense for where we are on the win curve.

    The Knicks are truly incompetent in every facet of running a professional basketball team, regardless of who is making the decisions.

  99. TheOakmanCometh

    mills did show a lot of discipline in free agency until last night

    If you lead a marathon for 26.1 miles and then sit down to read a book while everybody passes you, you don’t win a prize. You’re just as much of a loser as the slow guy bringing up the rear.

  100. Ben R

    I think a lot of people are stuck on the THJ that we had. He improved a lot in Atlanta. If he simply maintains the 19 pts on 57% TS% with slightly above-average defense 3.7 rebs, 3 asts and 1.8 tos for the next 4 years he is pretty close to worth his contract. If his three point shot creeps up towards 40% then his TS% would rise to close to 60% and he is at or exceeding his contract. It’s not that his contract is that bad it it’s that this is a terrible move unless there are some other moves waiting to unload Lee, Melo, Thomas and get starters at the 1 and 3.

  101. plenty

    116 – you’re a man of great patience. hope you have big lungs in this polluted city.

    not sure how rational of a take it is. first off all, in this hypothetical scenario, we are assuming the knicks somehow no longer have rose or melo, so that KP would be the default #1 scorer. therefore, the knicks now have many other players to share the ball and take shots (this is a good thing IMO, but i digress) but it still doesn’t explain why we would trade/buy out melo, if our concern in the first place is KP being double teamed. i mean i know we are talking about the KNICKS decision makers, but come on…

  102. TheOakmanCometh

    Memphis just signed Tyreke Evans for $3.3m. I don’t understand. They seem to have “read the market” and gotten a “good deal” on a player that fits their “team needs.” What sorcery is this????

  103. Frank

    @123 – yes – let’s see how this all shakes out with whatever moves are yet to come before we completely pass judgment.

    one way or the other though – this feels like a lost opportunity to tank this year, get Doncic or Porter, get some assets from others with our cap space.

  104. plenty

    126 – in ancient persian times – top decision makers and politicians would gather and had a policy w/r/t decision making.

    if they collectively agreed or decided on something while sober, they would make a point to go over it again while inebriated. and vice versa.

    it seems we are getting the drunken-decision making part only…

  105. kevin5318

    If Frank is our starting PG then we are definitely tanking hard next year. No way around it.

  106. 2FOR18

    OK, now that I’ve stopped banging my head on the wall, I’m thinking that this means melo is gone. We sign Teo, go with a lineup of Teo, Lee, THJr, Ryan Anderson and KP and try to score 120 a game.

  107. heavencent35

    It’s not the issue of thjr has improved etc. the prob here is paying thjr 71m even though we can have him for just 40-50m.
    iPhone is unquestionable great but buying it x2 the price is insane.

  108. Donnie Walsh

    Several things:

    1) Boston probably doesn’t want to deal their players, whom they like but need to move for logistical purposes, to division rivals. (So just because we can outbid Detroit, doesn’t mean that we can outbid Detroit).

    2) I don’t think Hardaway really breaks the streak of drafted Knicks not making it past their rookie contracts. They traded him, essentially, for a season of Derrick Freakin’ Washed Up Rose.

    3) Charley’s first ever post was in response to why reub was banned. (Just saying).

  109. latke

    As someone who’s been pretty down on the team for a while now, this move seems fine to me. It’s probably an overpay, but it’s a move with upside. There are realistic scenarios where this choice actually helps the Knicks. Nearly every choice since 2011 that the Knicks have made has been a net negative in the big picture. Tim is young enough that he won’t decline during this contract and may get better. That’s all you can do with cap space when your team sucks. Yeah, I’d have preferred trying to use it to add picks and bad contracts, but this type of deal is the second best option if you’re determined to spend that money.

    If you compare this deal to signing Courtney Lee, who based on age will likely be playing near a minimum salary level by the end of this deal, it comes off pretty well. Same goes for comparing it to the Allen Crabbe contract… similar $s but Hardaway is the better player.

    In the end, my guess is Atlanta matches. They’ve already committed to rebuilding now that Howard and Millsap are gone. They’re basically in the same situation as we are so have the same justification to keep THJr.

  110. Donnie Walsh

    my guess is Atlanta matches.

    Major points to you if you’re right.

    My guess is Atlanta doesn’t match and proceeds to make the playoffs.

    (ps– why didn’t we just go all in and offer a NTC?)

  111. SJK

    After thinking about it, I’m fine with the move if we trade Melo. If we run out some combination of Frank, Courtney, ThJ, Lance, KP, Willy and KOQ next year we will be BAD. Like bottom 5 team bad. And that is good, in the long run.

    Add another top5 pick next year and you could have a reasonable young core. Maybe we’re able to dump Lee as well, making us even worse.

    I’m inclined to see what happens with Melo before grading this one. If it’s a win now move though, it’s terrible.

  112. TheOakmanCometh

    We didn’t offer a NTC? Must have been an oversight. Let’s give it to him after the deal is finalized.

  113. Ben R

    As for trading Melo if Portland did in fact want Anderson what about:

    Houston – Carmelo
    Portland – Anderson – 2020 Houston 1st
    NY – Harkless – Davis (expiring) – Taylor – Onuaku

  114. thenoblefacehumper

    Latke, I’m not opposed to using cap space to add intriguing young players. I’m not even opposed to theoretically overpaying for young players with the idea that they can grow into their contracts (within reason).

    The problem is the specific young player we just signed. I don’t know where everyone is seeing this projected growth. He has played 4 NBA seasons, and has only made real improvement as a scorer. That’s not insignificant and he’s turned himself into an average player after looking like complete trash early on, but you have to think he can become an absolutely amazing scorer to defend this contract. Like, 25 PPG on a 60%+ TS or some shit, because we know he’s not going to do much of anything else. Who the hell sees that as possible?

  115. Jack Bauer

    @ 26 “Being a Knick fan is like Charlie Brown and Lucy with the football. ”

    That is a great analogy and worth repeating

  116. JK47

    This contract offer was instantly panned across the sports world. And don’t give me this shit about the media being biased against the Knicks. The media rips the Knicks because they fucking eternally suck, because they constantly make laughably bad decisions exactly like the one they made yesterday.

    We deserve the scorn. We’re a joke. This was a stupid way to use the salary cap space we had, and that should be clear to anybody who is looking at this objectively.

  117. ptmilo

    As someone who’s been pretty down on the team for a while now, this move seems fine to me. It’s probably an overpay, but it’s a move with upside. There are realistic scenarios where this choice actually helps the Knicks

    What do you think the odds are that TH2 is worth more than $18m per over the next three years compared to the odds he is worth less?

  118. danvt

    If sports fandom was rational I’d be gone. But alas the heart wants what it wants. I now *want* Tim Hardaway to be a great Knick.

    His dad’s a bigoted a-hole, btw so there’s that…to rationalize…too.

    57% TS seems um OK?

    If he’s a replacement for Courtney Lee this could be good if, let’s say we move him for a pg. Maybe Melo, O’Quinn get moved for assets. Maybe Noah gets taken by someone. I might see this as a roll of the dice on a guy with upside if there were other moves to back it up.

    Problem is that I have very little faith in this rudderless franchise. So great, we have like 5 2 guards, Arod at the 3, and an untested pg who can’t legally get a beer in NYC. (Maybe that’s at least for the best)

    I was so psyched to check the ticker today.

    Fukfukfuk

  119. Hubert

    Why can’t this team ever understand that just because you have cap space you don’t have to use it to offer large contracts?

  120. latke

    @thenoblefacehumper

    $17m is not that much with a $100m cap. It’s 5th starter type money. Under the cap of three years ago, it’s like $9m/year. Yeah, it’s similar money to what George Hill got, but when you factor in Hill’s age, I would expect Hardaway to actually produce more on average per year over the lfie of the contract as Hill is very likely on the precipice of major decline. Then factor in the fact that we are probably three years away, and who would you rather have the opportunity to re-sign with Bird rights in 3 years when you’re capped out an can’t sign other teams’ free agents, George Hill at age 34 or Tim Hardaway at age 28?

    No, this is not an ideal signing. I would have rather gambled on players with more variance to their potential futures such as KJ McDaniels or James McAdoo or tried to work to take on bad contracts to add picks/prospects. There are probably better options in terms of RFAs that we could have gone after.

    But on a scale of 1-10 where 1 means “this GM is totally clueless” to 10 being “this GM is Daryl Morey”, I’d call this move a 6.

  121. nicos

    I’d give it a 3.5/4 out of ten. There’s at least a decent chance (I’d say 50% depending on how the cap moves) THJ winds up being worth pretty close to the actual contract but I’d say it’s doubtful his value exceeds it by any significant amount. If we didn’t already have Lee (plus Dotson who looks like he could be at least a decent back-up) maybe it’s worth the risk but we had no need of another two- especially one who has little to no positional flexibility.

  122. Donnie Walsh

    Hardaway has actually gotten worse as a shooter (3pt and FT) since his rookie year.

    He’s improved in other areas, but let’s face it, he was league worst in those categories, so good for him for improving, but he could really only go up.

    This is so uninspiring, it’s awesome.

  123. Grocer

    The real problem here is that Steve Mills is still the de facto temp Player of Basketball Operations.

    This contract offer was instantly panned across the sports world.

    Here’s hoping this means we won’t have Steve Mills to kick around anymore.

  124. #fireRambis

    so who is starting? Tim or Lee? unless Lee gets traded
    Noah is suspended for 20+ games, is that without pay?

  125. nicos

    What numbers would THJr have to produce to be worth this contract?

    Given that he’s at best okay defensively and won’t grab many boards I’d say he needs to get his TS% up in the .590-.600 while maintaining his usage, assist, and turnover % numbers and playing starters minutes. That’s doable but certainly not a sure thing. The bigger problem as someone mentioned above is opportunity cost- he doesn’t play a position of need and that salary drastically lowers the Knicks ability to address the needs they do have.

  126. Z-man

    I’m feeling somewhat better now than I was this morning. To be honest, there were times last year when I heard that Tim was tearing it up, and was starting to worry that we got fleeced in the trade for Jerian. I watched some highlights and read lots of comments. There was someone at P&T that posted a video w stats on how his defense has improved from like the 19%ile to high 80s. He seems to have improved going to the basket w either hand. He had a lot of real good games once Korver was gone, really stepped up. He absolutely sucked in the playoffs, so there’s that.

    If ATL doesn’t match, I will hope that we will see his development continue and that he actually DOES significantly move the needle. I hope he actually is a smarter, more stable version of JR

  127. GoNyGoNyGo

    Why can’t this team ever understand that just because you have cap space you don’t have to use it to offer large contracts?

    @147
    Actually, that’s exactly why the 76’ers gave Redick a $23M – 1 year deal. They needed to reach the cap floor.

    $17m is not that much with a $100m cap. It’s 5th starter type money.

    @148
    No, but when you already have $30M tied up in Lee and Noah, adding another long-term deal just wrecks our future ability to sign players.

  128. #fireRambis

    i’d rather sign swaggy p for one year… imagine the laughs… passing is a point guard job..

  129. danvt

    @148
    No, but when you already have $30M tied up in Lee and Noah, adding another long-term deal just wrecks our future ability to sign players.

    That’s why this move needs to be coupled with cost saving measures. It’s really stupid if it’s all we do. It might be stupid even if it’s not all we do, but it’s definitely stupid if it’s all we do. Any other organization and I’m sure they’re thinking three moves ahead. NYK I’m thinking they’re thinking, “We just gotta get somebody.”

  130. Bruno Almeida

    I honestly don’t even care much about the cap, yeah it kinda sucks to commit this much money to a player who’s not very good, but it’s not the end of the world… the Knicks wouldn’t be able to get much talent with this cap anyway.

    What pissed me off is two things: one, if the franchise is fine absorbing big contracts, why not go around the league and see if teams want to dump bad contracts for picks? That’s one way bad teams can get value off a rebuilding effort.

    two, a contract like this signals an intent to try to win-now, again, while the team is not ready to do so and would benefit much more from going young, cheap and banking on a very high 2018 pick. Hardaway is a decent player, and because of that he will bring just enough pointless wins to make sure once again the Knicks draft just after the top 4 picks (where Porter, Ayton, Doncic and Bamba will most surely be slotted) and not enough to actually be meaningful. The signing also makes it even more possible that Melo will indeed stay, and that the Knicks might also pursue a veteran PG, kinda has to be either Rondo or Rose at this point… which is terrible and I don’t feel it’s necessary to even explain why.

    So all in all, it’s not even about the offer, which is an obvious overpay, but more about what it actually means for the immediate future of this team.

  131. ptmilo

    $17m is not that much with a $100m cap. It’s 5th starter type money.

    That’s not 5th starter type money. If it was, your average team would have to field 5 guys who are merely at the 5th starter level and then 10 replacement players, which of course would not be an average team. If a replacement team would win 15 games, the avg team will spend ~$85m more for 26 additional wins, about $3.3 million per win. $18 – $1 = $17m would be worth about 5.2 wins. This equates to a VORP (to the extent VORP is useful) of about 2.0. TH2’s career high in VORP was last year 0.9 in 2150 minutes, call it 1 or 1.1 just from an extra 400 minutes. You can take ~10% off of that for the rookie contract effect, but it’s in the ballpark.

    It’s possible he improves further and becomes a 2.0 guy. But this isn’t the 120-150th best player implied by 5th starter, it’s more like the 50th best player in the league in any given year. TH2 is still young and he improved last year, but I would definitely call it a long shot he gets to this level — and that’s just to reach fair value, let alone exceed it and actually become a win for us. On the other hand, it’s pretty easy to see him being worth a hell of a lot less, in which case it turns into a four year deal. Seems like a bad risk reward even if there’s some chance it works out okay. For a team like us, I don’t see how it makes any sense, even if it’s better than signing a 31 year old.

  132. Cock Jowles, Not a Knicks Fan Because Fuck This Team

    Shitty deals, ranked:

    1) Curry trade
    2) Bargnani trade
    3) Noah signing
    4) Melo NTC/megamax
    5) Melo trade
    6) Jerome James deal
    7) Steve Francis trade
    8) Rose trade

    Where does the $71M debacle fit in?

  133. Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada

    It ranks at 9 this is the only one of the deals with any amount of upside. There’s not much, but it’s a greater than zero amount.

    That being said the only way this truly breaks our way is that Hardaway is so good that we resign him with bird rights. That ain’t happening imo

  134. 2FOR18

    Re: the Celtics’ forward logjam, Hayward can play the 2 just fine.
    Isaiah, Hayward, Crowder, Tatum/Morris, Horford. Try to guard that team.

    I’m just saying, don’t worry about the Celtics, they know what they’re doing.

  135. Cock Jowles, Not a Knicks Fan Because Fuck This Team

    What numbers would THJr have to produce to be worth this contract?

    Hardaway is a .568 TS% player on 21 USG%. That’s about 70th percentile in each, which is very good. He is terrible at everything else, so I wouldn’t expect him to become a Kidd-like rebounder or a Harden-like passer.

    If he maintains his usage and TOV% and improves to a .600 TS%, he instantly becomes worth his salary. I don’t see how he does that at age 27, but maybe I’ll be wrong.

    Just remember the Knicks could have re-signed him (or just not traded him or let him walk, like they do literally every single other player since Charlie Ward) instead of letting him become someone else’s RFA to be bid and overpaid for. That alone makes this deal shitty, plus the fact that we have to talk about what he’ll have to improve to become worth his contract. Why not just sign some underrated guy from Europe for 5% the cost, if we have to add caveats to justify the deal?

  136. 2FOR18

    I would say this ranks as 6th worst. But I don’t remember who we have up for Francis.

    People who are not destroying this deal don’t understand math and econ.

  137. Ntilakilla

    one, if the franchise is fine absorbing big contracts, why not go around the league and see if teams want to dump bad contracts for picks? That’s one way bad teams can get value off a rebuilding effort.

    This.

  138. Z-man

    “He is terrible at everything else”

    Not true. He is now a mediocre but not terrible defender, a pretty decent passer, and he doesn’t turn the ball over or foul much. The only thing he is “terrible” at is rebounding. And even the rebound-centric WP48 stat rates him at #20 among SGs.

    That said, I agree with your benchmarks, or maybe a .580 TS% with a modest uptick in rebound and assist numbers, or a bump in FTr.

  139. latke

    @ptmilo

    you’re not taking into account that there are basically two entirely different classes of contracts in the NBA: discount contracts from rookie scale deals or superstars capped by the max individual salary and everyone else.

    Every dollar that teams save on max players and rookie scale players floods into the free agent market, making it virtually impossible to even approach average production/dollar when you sign a free agent who’s had any significant amount of NBA minutes and therefore has a narrower range for what he might become. (The alternative is to gamble on lots of young undrafted players and wait to get lucky).

    So when I say “5th starter money” I mean, the amount a team would be forced to pay in order to get a 5th starter caliber player in free agency.

    This is why it’s kinda silly to bother signing any players with any kind of NBA experience as free agents to long term contracts unless you’re already a good team, but if you’re gonna spend that money on a free agent, I’d say Hardaway is a bit of an overpay but has a bit more upside and fits better with the Knicks’ timeline, making the contract a wash for the most part relative to other free agents we could ahve signed.

  140. 2FOR18

    Ffs there is no “upside” to this deal. Best case scenario is that he earns his contract. That’s not what upside means.
    So I’m adding English to math and Economics.

  141. alsep73

    Woj:

    Free agent guard Shelvin Mack is finalizing a two-year, $12M deal with the Orlando Magic, league sources tell ESPN.

  142. 2FOR18

    Don’t worry. I’m sure Frank or Lee are capable of dribbling the ball to half court and handing it to melo.
    Shoot me please.

  143. JK47

    So looks like Frank will be our starting PG. Doncic here we come.

    Dolan’s Razor says this team wins 32 games and gets the #7 pick. Miles Bridges, come on down.

    Unless the 2018 pick gets traded away for that “star” point guard we need. We’re just one player away, amirite?

  144. 2FOR18

    Lol Miles Bridges, our destiny. Melo can mentor him for the next 4 years after he re-ups.

  145. DRed

    If he maintains his usage and TOV% and improves to a .600 TS%, he instantly becomes worth his salary. I don’t see how he does that at age 27, but maybe I’ll be wrong.

    He’s only 25-he basically has to get good at 3 point shooting to pull it off.

  146. kevin5318

    I think we’re definitely worse than last year with the horrid PG play we’re about to witness. Baker and Frank is probably a significant downgrade from Rose and Jennings.

  147. DRed

    But I don’t remember who we have up for Francis.

    WE TRADED TREVOR ARIZA FOR THE BLOODLESS HUSK OF STEVIE FRANCHISE

  148. TheOakmanCometh

    Just listened to the Dunc’d On analysis of the Hardaway signing. They said the following things:

    “Unambiguously the worst signing of the offseason”
    “Dumbfounding”
    “Depressing”
    “There’s a reason that bad franchises stay bad, because they just can’t help themselves.”

    They also used the word “Knicksy” several times in describing our stupidity. We have our own adjective. We’re a joke.

  149. Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada

    I don’t think Bridges gets past 5 or 6 next year, and after that it’s all PF/Cs and unimpressive PGs til about 11 or 12, lol.

    It’s imperative that we get a top 5 pick in this draft class because we need a young SF now more than anything with Tim and Dotson at the 2 and Frank at the 1. Our 3 position is currently Melo, Lance, and Kuz. Yuck.

    Fwiw it seems as if a lot of the 2018 SGs might also be able to play SF (Doncic, Troy Brown)

  150. DRed

    Just listened to the Dunc’d On analysis of the Hardaway signing. They said the following things:

    “Unambiguously the worst signing of the offseason”
    “Dumbfounding”
    “Depressing”
    “There’s a reason that bad franchises stay bad, because they just can’t help themselves.”

    Unambiguously wrong
    Kinda
    Kinda
    Definitely

  151. kevin5318

    Frank, Dotson, Doncic, Kp and Willy looks pretty damn promising for a starting lineup.

  152. Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada

    I honestly think that if we get another 8 pick we should just reach for Bonga or Troy Brown (current #15 and 13 on DX respectively)

    They look much more impressive to me than the players immediately preceding them

  153. Owen

    It would be amazing if the Hawks matched. Amazingly dumb too.

    I am with those who don’t see any upside in this deal. And if Timmy were to post an empty 53% ts% who would be surprised? He’s got such a narrow skill set it’s easy to see him swinging back to solidly below average.

    Good thread folks…

  154. DRed

    1. Giving Melo a NTC
    2. Signing Jo Noah
    3. Trading for Derrick Rose
    4. Resigning Melo

    Those are all worse than the Hardaway deal by themselves. Signing Timmy probably isn’t much dumber than signing Courtney Lee, except for the fact that already having Lee makes it so.

  155. Donnie Walsh

    Shitty deals, ranked:

    1) Curry trade
    2) Bargnani trade
    3) Noah signing
    4) Melo NTC/megamax
    5) Melo trade
    6) Jerome James deal
    7) Steve Francis trade
    8) Rose trade

    Where does the $71M debacle fit in? …

    … It ranks at 9 this is the only one of the deals with any amount of upside.

    The Curry trade turned out terribly, but it did have upside, as he was only 22 and showed dominance in the post (not just competence). And Jerome James was a mere mid-level exception signing, which Hardaway Jr is, noticeably, not.

    (So there it is– I just defended Isiah in the face of the 2K17 incompetence of the NYK. Yikes!)

  156. Owen

    The Curry trade turned out terribly, but it did have upside

    Donnie, please don’t troll me like that. I am in a dark place right now.

  157. 2FOR18

    I think the Lakers summer team has more talent than the knicks. Ball, Hart, Ingram, Kuzma, Bryant.

  158. KnickfaninNJ

    I wonder if Jaramaz will get a camp invite. Would love to give him a better look.

    I suspect he’s a candidate to go back to Europe as a draft and stash

  159. KnickfaninNJ

    For point guards, I still think the Knicks should check Zhao Jiwei. He is good at passing to big men, and he’s only 21.

  160. Cock Jowles, Not a Knicks Fan Because Fuck This Team

    For point guards, I still think the Knicks should check Zhao Jiwei. He is good at passing to big men, and he’s only 21.

    Two question: did his dad play in the NBA, and did he show “improvement” over a three month sample? If so, I’d offer $70M and see if he bites.

  161. KnickfaninNJ

    Good point. Honestly, he’d probably cost too little for the Knicks to even consider him.

  162. Z-man

    @198 as Archie Bunker once told Meathead, “That’s how you tell what’s good, it costs more.”

  163. Brian Cronin

    I am legit surprised at the contract Shelvin Mack got. I figured him for two years for what he got for one year.

  164. Brian Cronin

    I’m wondering what’s the best trade scenario for dumping thjr contract and our 18 first round pick at the trade deadline?

    The Hawks might match still!

  165. er

    I thought this was funny.

    Bill Simmons ? @BillSimmons
    Me: “I know you overpaid Hardaway but i kinda dig his game, he was good last year.”

    Knicks pal: “We could’ve just drafted Monk.”

    (Silence)

  166. Brian Cronin

    While that’s funny, couldn’t you argue that this is like getting Frank and Monk?

  167. Brian Cronin

    But yeah, honestly, while it’s an overpay, it’s not an obscene one. The issue is just that it does not make sense for this particular team. It reminds me a lot about how Isiah could often argue that he got the best player in a deal. Maybe true, but it doesn’t mean that it was a good idea. He got the best player in the Marbury trade, but so what? It was still a bad idea. THJ isn’t a bad player, but the move is still a bad one.

    As an aside, I think back to how Budz traded for him and I thought, “Wow, what a test for Budz’ skill as a coach. If he could turn THJ around…wow.” And damned if he didn’t do just that. Maybe the Knicks should just try to spend a lot of money to hire Budz over to New York. :),

  168. er

    While that’s funny, couldn’t you argue that this is like getting Frank and Monk?

    True, but we could have gotten another PG. Maybe Hill or Avery Bradley.

  169. Z-man

    The notion of the trade being “not bad, just bad for this particular team/situation” is either dependent on the assumption that we should be tanking hard, or that we didn’t need another SG.

    I totally get that. But if Hardaway plays in the vicinity of his value (and it is more likely that he won’t, which is MY main issue with the deal, which was too generous on the fear of it being matched) then it could be argued that Hardaway is the most important kind of asset to stockpile in today’s NBA: a uber-athletic lethal 3-point shooter that can score in multiple ways and who doesn’t kill you on D. Monk is 6’3″ with short arms and will probably struggle for a couple of years. Hardaway is ready to go right now.

    Which brings me to the notion that we should be tanking. I think that it would probably be smart in theory to tank, but it’s just not gonna happen with this management team and personnel unless it’s by accident. So the next best thing would be a commitment to youth and a more modern style of play, and letting the cards fall where they may in terms of “win now” vs. “tank.”. TH2 fits in as a piece in that particular puzzle. He is young, well suited for a high-octane, high PnR-based offense, and can play in a half-court set as well. He is a good complement for KP, Willy and Frank.

    I would rather we overpay for him than for, say, Dion Waiters, or Tyreke Evans, or even George Hill.

    He won’t be the problem with this team going forward. Melo is the problem, as is Noah, and to a lesser degree, Lee and Lance.

  170. Brian Cronin

    . I think that it would probably be smart in theory to tank, but it’s just not gonna happen with this management team and personnel unless it’s by accident.

    Oh, true, but that’s the stupid part. Especially when they tried to hint for a little while there that this time would be different. But yes, it seemed unlikely that we’d ever get an intelligent rebuild from these guys. It’s still dumb, though.

Comments are closed.