Knicks Morning News (2016.08.05)

  • [NY Newsday] Rio Olympics: Knicks’ Carmelo Anthony embracing leadership role for Team USA in quest for third gold medal
    (Friday, August 05, 2016 1:21:19 AM)

    Carmelo Anthony could have followed the paths of his closest NBA friends, LeBron James and Chris Paul, and skipped the Olympics. But Anthony saw an opportunity to be a leader for this team and do something no men’s basketball player has ever done.

  • [ESPN] Friday’s Knicks Links: Anthony embracing leadership role for Team USA
    (Friday, August 05, 2016 5:14:38 AM)

    Friday’s Knicks Links: Anthony embracing leadership role for Team USA

  • [ESPN] Kristaps Porzingis adding post moves to help the Knicks’ triangle offense
    (Thursday, August 04, 2016 1:40:48 PM)

    Kristaps Porzingis adding post moves to help the Knicks’ triangle offense

  • [ESPN] Thursday’s Knicks Links: Willy Hernangomez left speechless after meeting Phil Jackson
    (Thursday, August 04, 2016 7:28:04 AM)

    Thursday’s Knicks Links: Willy Hernangomez left speechless after meeting Phil Jackson

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks agree to partially guaranteed deal with Chasson Randle
    (Thursday, August 04, 2016 2:30:33 PM)

    The Knicks have agreed to a partially guaranteed deal with PG Chasson Randle.

  • [NYDN] How Russell Westbrook’s OKC deal impacts Knicks in 2017
    (Thursday, August 04, 2016 12:55:33 PM)

    Russell Westbrook isn’t going to hit the market next summer, and another dream for the Knicks went from pipe to evaporated.

  • [NYTimes] Russell Westbrook Re-Signs With Oklahoma City Thunder
    (Thursday, August 04, 2016 8:56:28 PM)

    Westbrook, 27, decided to stay with the Thunder, the team said on Thursday, a month after Kevin Durant left for the Golden State Warriors.

  • [NYTimes] Basketball: U.S. ‘B Team’ Kills Opponents With Kindness
    (Friday, August 05, 2016 10:12:38 AM)

    If living up to the adage, “if you can’t say something nice about someone, don’t say anything at all,” was an Olympic event the United States men’s basketball team would be standing atop the Rio Games podium on Thursday.

  • [NYTimes] Westbrook Stays With Oklahoma City After Durant Bolts Town
    (Friday, August 05, 2016 1:15:28 AM)

    Five-times All-Star guard Russell Westbrook has signed a contract extension with the Oklahoma City Thunder, the NBA team said on Thursday.

  • [NYTimes] AP Source: Thunder, Westbrook Agree on 3-Year Deal
    (Friday, August 05, 2016 12:16:10 AM)

    A month after Kevin Durant bolted for Golden State, star guard Russell Westbrook signed a contract extension to stay in Oklahoma City.

  • [NYTimes] Basketball : U.S. ‘B Team’ Kills Opponents With Kindness
    (Friday, August 05, 2016 12:03:32 AM)

    If living up to the adage, “if you can’t say something nice about someone, don’t say anything at all,” was an Olympic event the United States men’s basketball team would be standing atop the Rio Games podium on Thursday.

  • [NYTimes] Basketball : It Looks Like the U.S. and Then All the Rest
    (Thursday, August 04, 2016 7:09:31 PM)

    With the United States’ men’s and women’s basketball teams having dominated the Olympic tournament for more than two decades, the main battle should be for second on the hardwood when the first game tips off in Rio on Saturday.

  • [NYPost] Robin Lopez found out about Knicks trade from brother’s texts
    (Thursday, August 04, 2016 1:25:20 PM)

    New York wasn’t big enough for the two Lopez brothers. And Brooklyn’s Brook couldn’t wait to let everyone know twin Robin had been traded out of town by the Knicks to Chicago as part of the deal for Derrick Rose. The Lopez twins were overseas on a promotional trip and Brook left a little early….

  • [NYPost] Kristaps Porzingis all-in on new-look Knicks: ‘Big season for us’
    (Thursday, August 04, 2016 10:39:36 AM)

    Knicks fans aren’t alone in their optimism following the team’s flurry of offseason acquisitions. Kristaps Porzingis is right there with them. “We all know it’s going to be a big season for us,” the Latvian sensation said on Anthony Donahue’s “33rd and 7th Podcast.” “I can tell the guys are really locked in and ready during…

  • Liked it? Take a second to support Mike Kurylo on Patreon!

    Mike Kurylo

    Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

    69 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2016.08.05)”

    1. The key for Rose: his assist rate has to be significantly higher (like 10%) than his usage rate. If he can cut his usage down to 25-27% and up his assist% to 35-40%, his TS% won’t matter nearly as much (and would probably go up since fewer shots would mean better shots.)

    2. 3) That said – it’s the combination of him and Chris Paul that makes the offense great. Jordan’s individual offensive numbers are amazing when CP3 is on the court with him (eFG 71 on a 16.5 usage) , and still pretty great when CP3 is off the court (eFG 62.8 on 17.1 USG), but overall offense is disproportionately worse when he’s on the court without CP3. With Jordan on the court but CP3 off, the Clippers offense is legitimately awful with a PPP of 0.985. If you swap that (CP3 on, Jordan off), the Clippers offense scores 1.220 PPP. If Deandre Jordan is as amazing an offensive player as individual advanced stats would suggest, that really shouldn’t be the case.

      This is unbelievably disingenuous.

      1) Who is the backup PG on the Clippers? Is his name Austin Rivers? Stop comparing on/off numbers for an entire team’s offense based on the drop-off between the league’s best PG and one of the league’s worst.

      2) Jordan’s value doesn’t come from his 99th percentile efficiency and very low usage. It also comes from him being a 99th percentile rebounder and blocker. And a strong defender.

      3) Chris Paul is present in 17 out of 20 of Jordan’s top 5-man units by minutes played. Unsurprisingly, Austin Rivers is a guard in the other 3. Paul and Jordan have enormous overlap in minutes played — because they are both exceptional players and exceptionally complementary.

    3. Yes, Jowles, I believe that Rose will play closer to his MVP form than his play last year. I believe he will play at around 2016 John Wall level.

      Well Wall’s ts% was .510? Granted Rose’s been below .500 post-injury, but .540 is about league average. Heck .510 is less than Rose’s rookie year efficiency. Is .510 considered a success?

      Wall shot like 35% from three last year. Where do you think Rose will fall? 33% 31%? 30%?

      Wall had 10ast/36 last year. Rose was ~ half that. Do you think Rose will top 8.0/36 (his best single season, although it was only 39 games)?

      Does this really qualify as “closer to his MVP season?”

    4. What I hope Rose can get to is 52 TS% on 25-27 USG% and 30-32 AST% or back to his roughly 8.5 ast/100 possessions he was at his first 2 years in the league and in 2015/16.

      Forgetting the debates over how much he’ll suck or if he can bounce back to being an average starter, Rose is going to have one of the stranger career arcs in league history.

    5. that much is certainly true… i think his rookie year numbers are a reasonable expectation for this season… which i don’t think is good enough but we’ll see…

    6. Why don’t people do mixed tapes of Rose missing 17 shots? I wonder what that looks like?

      Mike K. is my lord and savior

    7. which i don’t think is good enough but we’ll see…

      Good enough for a $21.9M salary? Or good enough for a mega-max extension next summer?

    8. Wall was the 10th-15th best starting PG in the NBA last year, depending on which measure you use. That’s about where I think that Rose will wind up. That’s clearly closer to his MVP season than last season, which by your’s and many others’ accounts, he was the worst starting PG in the NBA except for Mudiay, and one of the worst players in the NBA.

      My guess is that he will probably have a TS% around .510, a 3-pt% of around 32%, an assist% of around 35%, a usage% of around 27% and a WS48 of around .110. I’m hoping for better but am feeling good about these numbers as a reasonable median projection. I base this relatively positive projection on:

      -Contract year, he’ll go stronger to the hoop and get more FTs
      -Long off-season to work on his game and his body after his first full season of play since 2010-11
      -Trend towards better offensive play in second half of last year
      -Good coach for PGs
      -Good GM for team-oriented play
      -Quality supporting cast
      -Good team chemistry
      -Reasonable backup to limit his minutes or replace him if he sucks or sulks

    9. That’s clearly closer to his MVP season than last season, which by your’s and many others’ accounts, he was the worst starting PG in the NBA except for Mudiay, and one of the worst players in the NBA.

      Are you seriously not in agreement about this?

    10. My guess is that he will probably have a TS% around .510, a 3-pt% of around 32%, an assist% of around 35%, a usage% of around 27% and a WS48 of around .110. I’m hoping for better but am feeling good about these numbers as a reasonable median projection. I base this relatively positive projection on:

      I’ll man up and put my prediction next to yours:

      TS%: .492
      3p%: 30%
      AST%: 28.6
      USG: 29.3%
      WS: .50

      To me this is an optimistic prediction. I’ve basically taken his last 3 year averages and upticked them slightly (except usage). For WS/48 – I just tripled his 3 year production (0.17).

      Someone put this in their calendar for the first week of April.

    11. Mike, just wondering because your numbers seem very specific, but did you run some kind of statistical analysis on Rose to get those or just educated guesses from basic number viewing and your own individual projections?

    12. Not debating that point, Jowles, just using it to explain what I meant in saying closer to this than to that.

      Essentially, I’m saying that he will likely be an above-average starting PG, if only slightly so. My guess is that if the Vegas oddsmakers set an over-under line for his WS48, it would probably be at or slightly above .100. I think that your doomsday scenario (you are on the record saying that there is NO WAY his WS48 is at .090 or above) is just as ridiculous as suggesting that he will regain his MVP form. I don’t think anything I’m saying is outlandish, given my reasoning above.

    13. I’m looking at BKREF comparison of Rose/Jennings, and honestly I’m not sure what to root for. A Rose injury puts a better PG out there, but boy was he bad last year too. And then I notice that Chasson Randle made less than 44% of his twos in 3 of 4 seasons in college. Although it appears that Randle & Jennings can at least hit threes, so there’s that.

      Any Ivy League PGs tearing up the Summer/D leagues?

    14. Mike, just wondering because your numbers seem very specific, but did you run some kind of statistical analysis on Rose to get those or just educated guesses from basic number viewing and your own individual projections?

      “I’ve basically taken his last 3 year averages and upticked them slightly (except usage). For WS/48 – I just tripled his 3 year production (0.17). ”

      So I averaged his last 3 seasons, except giving a yuge boost in WS. And I think those are optimistic numbers. I’d wager even money he falls short on 2 of them (500+ minutes minimum).

    15. Our differences are base on two different assumptions:
      1) Rose is and will continue to be who he has been since his ACL tear, and no amount of time or work will make any more than a marginal improvement in his game

      vs.

      2) Rose has passed a critical stage in his recovery from several injuries and can now focus more on improving and adjusting his game than either rehabbing or playing to prevent re-injury.

    16. Interesting. I’ve basically ignored his 2013/14 because he played 9 games after sitting out for close to 1.5 years, but I guess the sample was probably so small it barely impacted your projection anyways.

    17. This conversation isn’t paying much attention to the face that Rose wasn’t even a good defender in his pre injury days and has been a very poor defender recently. In fact some of the worst point guard defense I’ve ever seen outside of Calderon came late last year during Rose’s supposed resurgence, which basically consisted of him no longer missing over 70pct of his 3s. Wall is a good defender and Rose isn’t at all, and WS numbers are not useful in that respect. John Wall at a .1 ws48 is mostly likely above average and Rose at .1 is almost certainly below average thanks to a defensive chasm the size of Ron Baker’s stamp collection.

    18. Interesting. I’ve basically ignored his 2013/14 because he played 9 games after sitting out for close to 1.5 years, but I guess the sample was probably so small it barely impacted your projection anyways.

      Pretty sure it’s a average based on the total sum. Not just adding up the individual years. I could be wrong though…

    19. 1) Rose is and will continue to be who he has been since his ACL tear, and no amount of time or work will make any more than a marginal improvement in his game

      vs.

      2) Rose has passed a critical stage in his recovery from several injuries and can now focus more on improving and adjusting his game than either rehabbing or playing to prevent re-injury.

      So each of these also includes the assumption that there isn’t a constant stream of new talent creating more competition, and that talent is also improving and adjusting. Or the existing talent (Chris Paul and friends) is not constantly practicing in an attempt to improve. Or Derrick Rose is somehow more capable of improving and adjusting (due to his inherent gifts, none of which permanently affected by his multiple minor knee surgeries) and will thus improve at a greater rate or degree than his peers. Because ultimately, basketball isn’t about how many shots you can make; it’s about how many more shots you can make over that of the opposing team.

      Lots of assumptions.

    20. It’s hard to make a statistical argument for Rose improving because his circumstances are so rare.

      It’s extremely easy to say he’s going to be some average of his former post-injured self.

      But a few confounding factors. He’s still an elite athlete relative to the pg position, with speed, quickness and explosiveness that exceed most.

      He also said he played conservatively last season to avoid injury. When you juxtapose videos of his drives with his attempts at the basket, it seems valid.

      So, it’s possible that much of Rose’s issues stemmed from a mental approach to the season.

      He’s still 27, and in a contract year.

      There are very few precedents, if any, for Rose’s situation in the modern era of rehabilitation.

      It should at least give those who are considering Jowles and other commentators who speak in absolute terms some pause.

    21. Unlike many others, Rose has clearly demonstrated that he is capable of top-shelf play, and therefore his range of outcomes has a higher ceiling than most.

      I understand your point of view, but I think it’s fair to say that Rose’s situation is unique. He has objectively recovered most of his athleticism and shown that he can play 2000+ minutes in a season. He is also only 27 years old.

      Your assumption is that he can’t possibly go back to being a productive NBA player without recovering 100% of the athleticism he had pre-ACL. Your assumption is a straight line trajectory from the last 4 years to next year. Phil thinks he can be productive, and that he’s well worth a 1-year flyer, given the current PG market. I’m with Phil on this one.

    22. Or Derrick Rose is somehow more capable of improving and adjusting (due to his inherent gifts, none of which permanently affected by his multiple minor knee surgeries) and will thus improve at a greater rate or degree than his peers.

      Let’s see who responds…

      He’s still an elite athlete relative to the pg position, with speed, quickness and explosiveness that exceed most.

      ding ding ding

      However, several “minor” knee injuries later…

    23. Phil thinks he can be productive, and that he’s well worth a 1-year flyer, given the current PG market. I’m with Phil on this one.

      Stop. Calling. It. A. Flyer.

      We gave up legitimate value for Derrick Rose. If Derrick Rose sucks, that’s a disastrous outcome.

      I think that your doomsday scenario (you are on the record saying that there is NO WAY his WS48 is at .090 or above) is just as ridiculous as suggesting that he will regain his MVP form. I don’t think anything I’m saying is outlandish, given my reasoning above.

      One of these things happened in each of the last two seasons, while the other last happened in 2010-2011. How in the world are they equally plausible scenarios?

    24. It should at least give those who are considering Jowles and other commentators who speak in absolute terms some pause.

      This is fucking infuriating. We’re talking about probability, not certainty. This is the future. Of course it’s not absolute. However, when we evaluate Rose’s PAST production, we can speak with certainty. The minutes he’s played have happened, and no quantifiable evaluation can leave one with the assessment that Rose is even close to average. He has been terrible; therefore, he will likely continue to be terrible.

      Over and fucking over I will say this to you: he has played 3500 minutes since his two injury-lost years. He has been absolutely — I use this word without pause — totally and absolutely awful at NBA basketball relative to virtually every other starting PG in the league. He plays losing basketball. He does not help his team win relative to his NBA peers. (He does, however, help his team more than if they played 4-on-5. That seems to be the only explanation for “Rose ain’t that bad” folks.)

      There is a low probability that he overcomes all of the injuries and develops an outside shot and doesn’t 8-for-25 the Knicks into another lottery season.

      There is a high probability that he either (1) continues his absolutely awful play or (2) gets injured again. Because over the last four seasons, these are the only outcomes that Derrick Rose has mustered.

      It is patently ignorant to look at four years of outcomes and make a claim that there is a significant, discussion-worthy chance that Rose returns to 2010-11 form. This is absolute.

    25. The major difference to me in Rose’s athleticism is his lift and explosion at the rim. Still don’t see a lot of guys around the league that can stay in front of him and prevent him from getting to the rim. His percentage of total shots at the rim is similar to what it was before the injury, but he’s not as good at finishing those shots when he gets there and may also be drawing fewer fouls because he’s more careful about protecting his body.

      If he could get back to being good at drawing fouls it would make a huge difference in his level of play.

    26. We gave up legitimate value for Derrick Rose. If Derrick Rose sucks, that’s a disastrous outcome.

      This is total nonsense. If Derrick Rose sucks, we gave up a good but replaceable player (PS he’s already been replaced…possibly twice!) and got back $14 million in cap space for the next 2 years. It would be disappointing, but far from disastrous.

    27. This is total nonsense. If Derrick Rose sucks, we gave up a good but replaceable player (PS he’s already been replaced…possibly twice!) and got back $14 million in cap space for the next 2 years. It would be disappointing, but far from disastrous.

      Assuming Derrick Rose will suck based on 3500+ minutes of pure sucktitude is not fair, but we can completely write off Jerian Grant’s entire career because of 1200 minutes in which he was very bad, though not nearly as bad as Derrick Rose. Gotcha.

      Also if for whatever misguided reason we really felt the need to trade Lopez, there is simply no way we couldn’t have received something of actual value (i.e. not Derrick Rose). That would have opened up the same amount of cap space (which, again, didn’t need to be “opened” because Lopez was a smart allocation of the space) without taking back a shitty player.

    28. Forgetting the debates over how much he’ll suck or if he can bounce back to being an average starter, Rose is going to have one of the stranger career arcs in league history.

      It’s only going to be a strange career arc if Rose manages to come back and play great ball again. If he continues to play the way he has played post-injury, it will be a very common career arc: guy is good, guy sustains severe injuries, guy is no longer good. We’ve seen that many, many times.

    29. We did get more out of that deal than Derrick Rose. I think it’s feasible that both Justin Holiday and the 2017 second round pick become more valuable assets than Jerian Grant.

      Unrelated, but I also think if Randle sticks he could be a better passing and shooting version of Galloway.

    30. Unlike many others, Rose has clearly demonstrated that he is capable of top-shelf play, and therefore his range of outcomes has a higher ceiling than most.

      True. However these outcomes are probably extremely unlikely to occur. For instance the range of outcomes of winning the lottery has a higher ceiling than playing poker with a group of friends. But you’re likely to make more money and win more often playing poker.

    31. It’s only going to be a strange career arc if Rose manages to come back and play great ball again. If he continues to play the way he has played post-injury, it will be a very common career arc: guy is good, guy sustains severe injuries, guy is no longer good. We’ve seen that many, many times.

      If he comes back to be an average PG it’d be pretty weird too. Great player who gets injured, totally sucks when he comes back and then becomes a solidly average player for another few years is a kind of McDyess-ish career arc.

    32. He also said he played conservatively last season to avoid injury.

      But if you put this into consideration, you also have to submit this quote as evidence to the contrary:

      “I think a lot of people don’t understand is when I sit out, it’s not because of this year. I’m thinking about long term. I’m thinking about after I’m done with basketball, having graduations to go to, having meetings to go to.

      “I don’t want to be in my meetings all sore or be at my son’s graduation all sore just because of something I did in the past. Just learning and being smart.’’

      Rose playing conservative in the past wasn’t so that he could turn it on and play 100% if he was traded to the Knicks one day. If he wasn’t trying his hardest for the Bulls, in his home town, on a team with championship aspirations, to earn the $100,000,000 they were paying him, what makes you think he will play his hardest just to make the playoffs for a team he has nothing invested in?

      I mean, he’s still going to have to go to meetings one day. And his kids haven’t graduated yet.

    33. Great player who gets injured, totally sucks when he comes back and then becomes a solidly average player for another few years is a kind of McDyess-ish career arc.

      That’s probably my best-case scenario – that we get an adequate player who performs within his limitations. (Which apparently include meetings where he’s jumping around a lot….)

      I don’t think we’ll get that – Rose doesn’t understand his limitations – but that would be a good scenario if it happened.

      My 43 wins is projected on Rose sucking, but not as much as the last couple of years, and not for a full season of minutes. Numbers between what Mike and Z-man are each putting out.

    34. True. However these outcomes are probably extremely unlikely to occur. For instance the range of outcomes of winning the lottery has a higher ceiling than playing poker with a group of friends. But you’re likely to make more money and win more often playing poker.

      The difference her is that your assessment of probability is based on a false assumption: that Derrick Rose is analogous to a deck of cards or a scratch-off ticket or a Ping-Pong ball scrambler. We actually have recent evidence that Rose is a) significantly recovered from his injuries and b) capable of stretches of strong play (see: Mid-Feb-Mid March 2016). You are betting that his “good” games are going to be more than cancelled out by his “bad” games based on the entire 2000 minute sample from last year (the 1500 minutes during his injury-riddled seasons before that are irrelevant to me, and should be to everyone now that his ability to play an entire season has been established.) I am suggesting that there is a reasonable probability that he produces more good games and fewer bad games on the basis of the things I listed in @12. You will argue that I’m cherry-picking, I will argue that he is a special case that merits cherry picking.

      Your analogy is also flawed b/c there is no way to affect the odds of winning when buying a lottery ticket, but there are lots of ways to increase your odds of winning by playing poker. If a novice poker player gets in a game of texas hold ’em with guys from the World Series of Poker, he/she’s extremely likely to lose, regardless of the cards that are dealt.

      Phil Jackson has more info on Rose than you or I do. Rose has a degree of control over how he prepares and plays, certainly more than lottery balls have control over how they bounce.

    35. Phil Jackson has more info on Rose than you or I do. Rose has a degree of control over how he prepares and plays, certainly more than lottery balls have control over how they bounce.

      ahahahahaha I’m fuckin dead

    36. @rama

      Yeah, I’m thinking around 44 wins for us, so basically the same as you. Maybe Shaun Livingston would be a viable comp though he never reached the heights Rose did pre-injury.

    37. okay…we get it: D-Rose sucks and we are all in store for another year of tragedy and torture from our favorite team…

      on a brighter note though – right on about Ewing’s birthday…be it rational or not – i place all the blame for the last 16 years of crappy basketball on the fool move to ship out Ewing back in 2000…

      I’m also still holding a grudge against Riley from ’94 for giving starks too much of a green light and not letting harper shoot more…

      wow…i feel a lot better getting that off my chest…go knickerbockers…have a good weekend everyone…

    38. Walt “Clyde” Frazier called to wish me a happy birthday today so none of you guys can bother me here.

    39. ahahahahaha I’m fuckin dead

      With this keeping you from posting laughable shit constantly?

    40. This is unbelievably disingenuous.
      1) Who is the backup PG on the Clippers? Is his name Austin Rivers? Stop comparing on/off numbers for an entire team’s offense based on the drop-off between the league’s best PG and one of the league’s worst.

      If one of the very best offensive players in the league is on the floor, don’t you think the offense should be at least passable even without Chris Paul?

      3) Chris Paul is present in 17 out of 20 of Jordan’s top 5-man units by minutes played. Unsurprisingly, Austin Rivers is a guard in the other 3. Paul and Jordan have enormous overlap in minutes played — because they are both exceptional players and exceptionally complementary.

      Agreed re: their complementary nature. I am not disputing that Deandre is an exceptional offensive player. That’s why I wrote #1 and #2 (see below) which you ironically and conveniently decided to leave out when calling me disingenuous:

      1) Deandre Jordan is a great offensive player, much like Tyson Chandler was in a similar role.

      2) His offensive effect far outstrips even his amazing eFG and USG, because much of the amazing Clippers’ offense is based on how he deforms the defense when he comes down the lane, since he’ll dunk anything close. So even when he doesn’t take a shot, he’s a positive offense force (not taking into account his awful FT shooting and possessions hijacked by Hack-a-Jordan)

      Re: the Rose discussion – I think it’s fair to say that Phil thinks there is some small-moderate chance that Rose will be good or great, and that that betting on that small chance has a higher relative value than going forward with the sh*t sandwich we would have been otherwise. Pot odds, if we’re talking poker terms. The disagreement here is how small the small-moderate chance is, and whether the pot odds are worth the gamble. The optimists think it is worth it, the pessimists don’t.

    41. My preference is to stay away from the Rose debates. Mainly because I don’t have much knowledge when it comes to advance stats, so I happily defer to you guys on that. However, I will say this- Rose has sucked lately. Eye test and advanced stat-wise. But there is hope. High usage/Lower(than Melo) efficiency guys like Rose and Jennings now aren’t required to do as much heavy lifting as they have in the past, because Melo & KP. So maybe..just maybe in this hybrid offense with a coach who has done well with guards, Rose can play at a respectable level or better. Certainly better than he has been playing. Rose and Jennings typically take a good number of shots under duress. They are now gonna either get more open looks or create more open looks, because they now have more weapons out on the court than they’ve had- on the strength of Melo and KP alone.

      So..yes..I think it’s entirely possible that Rose will have a “bounce back” season. In fact, I’d even give it at least a 60% chance. And with the way our Knicks have kinda sucked lately, I’ll gladly take that. After all, Rose by all accounts, looks healthy and explosive again. His saving grace health-wise may end up being the fact that he doesn’t need to be “the guy” on this team.

    42. I recently read on P&T that D-Rose likes to get a little freaky (supposedly there’s a very good chance he’ll get off – again)…from this day forward whenever I see him in a knicks uniform I’ll always be thinking of the hair gel scene from there’s something about mary…I mean how is it possible to not have a little collateral damage with all those sweaty appendages moving around…

    43. Can someone explain how replacing $14M/year Lopez with $18M/year Noah is opening up cap space because it looks to me like it doesn’t.

    44. Shhhhhhh, vin, don’t be a hater. More long term money tied up in older players is the new market inefficiency

    45. High usage/Lower(than Melo) efficiency guys like Rose and Jennings now aren’t required to do as much heavy lifting as they have in the past, because Melo & KP. So maybe..just maybe in this hybrid offense with a coach who has done well with guards, Rose can play at a respectable level or better.

      This is the same argument that has been put out there for every player that has been put next to Carmelo Anthony. Bargnani would be better because he wouldn’t have to do the “heavy lifting.”

      Quoth ruruland on Bargnani:

      Copeland, who I love and think is legit, had the benefit of playing against team’s inferior defenders and was no tilted to by the team defense, nor scouted as heavily as a primary option. That’s what’s happened to Bargnani through most of his career. He doesn’t have to deal with that anymore, and he might just be out on a mission to prove he belongs in the league.

      Over and over we see these arguments. They rarely pan out. Rose is not going to suddenly defer. His usage will be about the same.

    46. Over and over we see these arguments. They rarely pan out. Rose is not going to suddenly defer. His usage will be about the same.

      Indeed Jowles. I guess the hope here is that Rose, in particular, hasn’t had as diverse offensive weapons alongside him as Melo & KP. Maybe this will be exception to the rule? To your point of Rose not being able to defer, that is my biggest problem with this new age of players. I believe if you are a PG who touches the ball a lot, then you are incredibly important- and you HAVE to know when to defer and when to go for yours. Chris Paul does that masterfully. He may be the last of a dying breed.

    47. You opened up more money for next summer because instead of Calderons expiring at $7.7m you have Rose’s coming off at $21.8m. Unless you think the Knicks were not going to spend all their cap space this summer with or without the Rose trade the Knicks definitely did open up cap space for next summer since the deal wasn’t Noah for RoLo.

    48. So..yes..I think it’s entirely possible that Rose will have a “bounce back” season. In fact, I’d even give it at least a 60% chance. And with the way our Knicks have kinda sucked lately, I’ll gladly take that. After all, Rose by all accounts, looks healthy and explosive again. His saving grace health-wise may end up being the fact that he doesn’t need to be “the guy” on this team.

      @53 – That’s about how I look at it. But to me, when I consider the trade, I think there was a 0% chance that Calderon would ever be an all-star, 5% that he would give the Knicks either offense or defense.. I would say that Rose gives us 50% chance of being a top-30 point guard, and maybe 20% that he would return to all-star form.

      Obviously his health is an issue. Some guys are just snake-bit. If he fails this year I think it’ll be because of health. If that’s the case, the Knicks can just not re-sign him, find another PG and/or draft one. In this scenario they would have a relatively high pick, because they’ll suck.

      If he does well and they do go after him as a free agent, I would hope that he goes for market value. For a season it’s a worthwhile gamble. It’s better than the alternatives.

    49. I guess the hope here is that Rose, in particular, hasn’t had as diverse offensive weapons alongside him as Melo & KP.

      That’s the hope, but is it true? Here are the FGA and FTA per 100 numbers for last year:

      Butler 21.0 and 9.6
      Gasol 21.8 and 6.3 (with a whopping third of his possessions used in the midrange)
      Anthony 26.6 and 8.2
      Porzingis 22.2 and 6.o

      I fail to see how Gasol’s offense could be considered anything but diverse, given that he put up nearly the same shooting volume as Porzingis, with a pretty even distribution of his shots by distance. On top of that, he’s considered among the great big passing big men of his generation. This was a thing before he was even traded to the Lakers! If anything, Porzingis taking fewer midrange shots (about half that of Gasol) should indicate that he’s less versatile and doesn’t stretch the floor, right?

      The prevalent narrative on this site is always about how Carmelo and friends are the ones who space the floor best. It only holds up to anecdotal evidence.

      My point isn’t to prove that Gasol and Butler are necessarily better than Carmelo and Porzingis, but that the converse assertion doesn’t have much to back it up when you look at even the simplest of per-possession numbers. And even if Melo and KP are better, are they better enough that they’ll turn Rose into even an average shooter? Such a stretch.

    50. Diverse was the wrong word to use. He hasn’t played with players that teams respect beyond the arc at every spot 2-4 and at times the Knicks can put KP at the 5 and spread it with 4 shooters for him.

      Whether or not that actually helps Rose be effective is it’s own issue.

    51. You opened up more money for next summer because instead of Calderons expiring at $7.7m you have Rose’s coming off at $21.8m. Unless you think the Knicks were not going to spend all their cap space this summer with or without the Rose trade the Knicks definitely did open up cap space for next summer since the deal wasn’t Noah for RoLo.

      This is ridiculous thinking especially because one of the arguments defending the Rose trade is that it helped us sign Joakim Noah.

    52. It’s not ridiculous thinking it’s simple logic. If you have a 7.7m expiring versus a 21.8m expiring you created cap space for next summer even if the total outlay is ultimately the same because the Knicks were always going to spend up to the cap.

    53. We could have just done something like give Derron Williams 12 million for a year. Trading for Derrick Rose so you’ll have cap space next year is nonsensical.

    54. While just looking at his injury history and the difference between post injury and pre-injury play when he’s ostensibly been healthy, I doubt Rose becomes a useful player again, another factor that adds to my doubt is his mental makeup. I know some guys just suck at talking to the press, but Rose always comes off as really out of touch completely without self-awareness.

      McDyess, Shaun Livingston and Grant Hill — all guys who were able to recuperate and become reasonably productive after similarly awful series of injuries — all came off as humble and pretty intelligent. That mental makeup lends itself to being able to observe and adapt. I mean, you just look at the dudes who are still in the league at an old age (a similar transition to the one Rose will have to make), and they’re all like that: Dirk, Duncan, Richard Jefferson, David West, Manu — these are all smart guys with the sense of humor to be able to recognize the deficiencies their aging bodies have created in their games. I just have a hard time seeing Rose showing that degree of perceptiveness and humility.

    55. We could have just done something like give Derron Williams 12 million for a year. Trading for Derrick Rose so you’ll have cap space next year is nonsensical.

      OMG, Derrick Rose has been bad, but at least you can see the upside (even if unlikely)

    56. The point is you could get one of the benefits of the Rose trade (more capspace next year) without trading anyone

    57. Dirk, Duncan, Richard Jefferson, David West, Manu — these are all smart guys with the sense of humor to be able to recognize the deficiencies their aging bodies have created in their games.

      Except Rose is 27 – far younger than those guys. I can understand his optimism: he’s supposed to be in his prime and he believes he can get back to it or close. Now, whether that may happen obviously is a different story.

      I see it like this: if he’s good, we have options. If he’s bad or even mediocre, we have options.

    Comments are closed.