Knicks Morning News (2016.08.06)

  • [SNY Knicks] Is Melo a different player on Team USA?
    (Friday, August 05, 2016 9:18:49 AM)

    If you’re a fan of Carmelo Anthony you have to be pleasantly surprised at the positive attention he’s getting this summer, particularly as part of Team USA.

  • [SNY Knicks] Why Justin Holiday continues to fly under radar for Knicks
    (Friday, August 05, 2016 8:19:14 AM)

    Justin Holiday may be 27, but with a guaranteed contract and experiencing a championship atmosphere, he can be a valuable asset for the New York Knicks this season.

  • [NY Newsday] Olympic teammates look to Carmelo Anthony: ‘We follow him’
    (Friday, August 05, 2016 5:07:21 PM)

    RIO DE JANEIRO — Carmelo Anthony was the last one to take the practice floor Friday, joining his U.S. teammates after wrapping up interviews where he was asked about everything from the opening ceremony to his diet.

  • [NYTimes] Basketball: U.S. ‘B Team’ Kills Opponents With Kindness
    (Friday, August 05, 2016 10:12:38 AM)

    If living up to the adage, “if you can’t say something nice about someone, don’t say anything at all,” was an Olympic event the United States men’s basketball team would be standing atop the Rio Games podium on Thursday.

  • [NYDN] Melo now USA basketball’s vocal leader as he goes for 3rd gold
    (Friday, August 05, 2016 6:02:33 PM)

    Carmelo Anthony has come a long way since his first Olympic experience in 2004 in Greece.

  • 61 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2016.08.06)”

    If one agrees, as many here appear to, that DRose has sufficient physical talent(perhaps excepting outside shooting) to be an above avg. pg, , the issue becomes is he capable and willing to adapt his game towards that end. Will he adjust his mindset and make the needed adjustments to improve on his recent statistically awful performance. Stats cannot produce a view into DRose’s mindset at this juncture, including how he views himself. Certainly it is in his financial interests going forward to drastically improve his metrics. Unless his people,whomever they may be, are irrational in terms of the use of advance metrics in paying players, it would seem they would counsel him to adapt. In way, this season could be his audition for the new DRose going forward. Melo, who does not have the same financial incentive to adapt certainly has changed his game over past couple of seasons and now seems to be adding a vocal leadership piece. Imo, we won’t know until the season plays out.

    The only financially driven statistic is points-per-game. If Rose averages 20 a game next year while staying relatively healthy, he’ll get another huge contract. How does one average 4 more points per game? Simple. Shoot more. (This is just one reason why the Knicks shouldn’t want to incentivize Rose, the other being that they are the team most likely to pay him based solely on his ppg).

    Pssh, don’t be ridiculous. Everything you need to know about Derrick Rose you can tell by looking at his last 3500 minutes on basketball reference, because there’s no reason to think anything whatsoever will change now that he’s several years removed from his last knee injury, doesn’t have broken bones in his face, is playing for an entirely different team and entirely different franchise and entirely different coach with a drastically different offensive system. Aside from being a repeat all-star and youngest ever league MVP, what’s to say his upside is any more than a poor man’s Jerian Grant? When I look into my crystal ball and see how Phil Jackson has given him a mega max contract extension I just can’t contain my anger.

    There, did I miss anything?

    @ 2 While my Knick fandom goes back to the Richie Guerin era, I am just starting to learn about advance metrics ( this site is a great place to start) It seems to be that the vast majority of teams use advanced metrics to inform their decisions, though many here argue the NYK do it in an inept fashion. Thus it would seem to me that the legacy ppg stat is no longer the stat that informs financial decisions for most teams. I acknowledge that the jury is out on the NYK and adavnced metrics, but absent access to FO we are left to speculate. I am guessing and hoping that PJ , Horny, Melo, and JN might be able to persuade DRose to adapt his game. If he is concerned about his legacy right after money, he doesnt want to finish his career in Sacremento

    The only financially driven statistic is points-per-game. If Rose averages 20 a game next year while staying relatively healthy, he’ll get another huge contract. How does one average 4 more points per game? Simple. Shoot more. (This is just one reason why the Knicks shouldn’t want to incentivize Rose, the other being that they are the team most likely to pay him based solely on his ppg).

    Ah yes, the primacy of points per game. That explains the only long-term investments the Knicks made this summer, in notorious volume scorers Joakim Noah and Courtney Lee. Ha ha, mo points = mo money, hur durr Knicks so stupid!!

    If one agrees, as many here appear to, that DRose has sufficient physical talent(perhaps excepting outside shooting) to be an above avg. pg, , the issue becomes is he capable and willing to adapt his game towards that end.

    This is mostly a false dichotomy. The brain is the organ behind “mindset” and it’s a physical thing, too. It might be a little easier to rewire than vertical leap or hand-eye coordination, but only a little. Changing your cognitive firing patterns to the extent you learn to say different stuff isn’t so hard, though few people do even that, but changing them to the extent that Cutler becomes Brees or Rose becomes Billups in your 20s or 30s, that is a very rare bird…and the ones who do it are those blessed with brains which already have an unusually flexible updating mechanism.

    I think people underestimate the extent to which Derrick Rose’s physical skills have diminished in the first place. He was always a below average player above the shoulders. One of the worst defenders relative to his physical skills I can remember, or at least he would be if I’d never seen Amar’e. You look at him now and see a guy who is still elite in beating all kinds of good and bad defenders off the dribble with either hand, who can change direction fluidly, pull up in rhythm, beat most of the NBA downcourt in transition, and it seems like he’s still a physical wonder.

    But this misses who Rose was in 2010. He way, way faster than he is now, despite being fast now. And when he got to the second level he didn’t have to pull up at the second dotted line and try some impressive but not really effective up and under or quick release layup; he could get up into or over the big with explosion. I don’t think it’s in his head that he can’t do that now. I think he can’t do that now. Kind of reminds me of KJ when he turned 31. Still looked like the quickest guy on the court, but wasn’t even close to being KJ.

    @6
    I concede that it requires a large leap of faith to believe DRose will adapt, but in my view mindset conotes the will to change. While there is a large component of repetitive training that informs the instinctive responses made on a basketball court, I would argue that one with the physical tools to be a good defensive player and the will to be one can improve.

    Rose reminds me a lot of Amare. We got Amare at about the same age, and for a while he absolutely dominated. What I noticed pretty early on was that he was getting dunk attempts blocked that in the past he would have gotten up higher, hung in the air longer, and finished over people. And it happened more and more as he lost more and more vertical. When a guy goes from having a 40″ to a 35″ vertical, for example, he’s still getting way up but can’t do the same things he could do earlier but might not realize it. Michael Jordan altered his shooting in his last years with the Bulls, and actually started missing dunks during his last year.

    Rose is in the same boat. He absolutely has to adapt somewhat to the reality that he has lost a few inches of verticality. He tried last year by not dunking at all, and was unsuccessful because his percentages on other shots was not good. The hope is that, with a long offseason to ponder his impending FA status and with Phil and Horny’s help, he will a) continue to work on shots he needs to make to become more efficient (3-pt and higher % 2’s); b) get his assist% up near 40%; and c) draw more fouls. And then there’s defense.

    I think it’s fair to question whether Rose has the mental capacity to change his game. He certainly is not known for having a cerebral approach to the game, and like Amare, he may be in denial about the loss of his physical gifts. He seems to (again, like Amare) have a great work ethic and an enormous amount of pride, but the jury is out on whether he can adapt to his new reality.

    I think he can. The combo of his contract year, wounded pride, long and healthy offseason, Phil and Hornacek (who clearly knows and utilizes advanced stats) off the court and Noah, Melo, Sasha, Lance, Lee and yes, even Kristaps on the court, and the aura of redeeming himself in the Mecca, all work in his favor. The chemistry here seems great, best in many years. For now, I’m a believer.

    Ah yes, the primacy of points per game. That explains the only long-term investments the Knicks made this summer, in notorious volume scorers Joakim Noah and Courtney Lee. Ha ha, mo points = mo money, hur durr Knicks so stupid!!

    Yes, I’m so sure that the reason the Knicks didn’t sign DeRozan, Beal, or McCollum is because they didn’t want to pay max money exclusively for PPG, and it had nothing to do with the fact that all the PPG players resigned with their own teams because they could max them the highest. PPG is the fastest path to max money. It was factorial then and it’s factorial now.

    Well we did offer Greg Monroe less than the max. Not exactly a high PPG guy but they seemed more interested in Lopez.

    Kind of reminds me of KJ when he turned 31. Still looked like the quickest guy on the court, but wasn’t even close to being KJ.

    That’s a very astute and interesting observation. One I’ve never really thought of, but seems fitting. Only difference is KJ was a better shooter and a better facilitator. I don’t think Rose will ever become a good shooter and great facilitator because all his career, he’s relied on otherworldly athleticism to get HIS shots- and coaches at each level pretty much encouraged him to do so at the expense of you know, being a PG. It’s great to be able to beat pretty much anyone off the dribble and get buckets, but basketball isn’t a one on one sport. Therefore knowing how and when to utilize your teammates to maximize your team’s output is paramount to becoming a good to great to elite player- ESPECIALLY as a PG. Coach Cal says Rose has that ability to do so, but he hasn’t shown it. He seems to have a ton of faith in a lead guard who’s best job facilitating usually comes when he’s leveraging his scoring ability. Whereas the Zekes/CP3s/Kidds/Stocktons/Magics/even LeBrons of the world etc. can heavily influence the game whether their shots are going or not. As much as Westbrook frustrates me as a PG, even he can greatly influence the game when his shot isn’t falling. Rose thus far hasn’t shown that ability. Let’s all hope Coach Cal is right.

    Well we did offer Greg Monroe less than the max. Not exactly a high PPG guy but they seemed more interested in Lopez.

    We also chose Courtney Lee (career 9.9 ppg) over Eric Gordon (career 16.6 ppg) when both were available for similar money.

    I’m not sure what DeRozan, Beal or McCollum have to do with anything since the latter two were restricted and not really on the market and DeRozan quite obviously had no intention of leaving Toronto. Yeah, high PPG correlates with high pay in the NBA, but the idea that the Knicks are the neaderthals of the league, blindly throwing money at anyone who can rack up points, is just laughably out of date. If you look at our starting lineups it’s obvious that Phil understands the value of a balanced roster with complimentary skills sets, not just as many volume scorers as possible. The only question is whether our core players will stay healthy enough to play at a high level, which has nothing to do with mo points, mo $$.

    If you look at our starting lineups it’s obvious that Phil understands the value of a balanced roster with complimentary skills sets, not just as many volume scorers as possible.

    Also, if you look at our starting lineups, it’s obvious that Phil has not looked at eFG%, because several of the least-efficient shooters in the league are now Knicks.

    Every possible angle of the Derrick Rose case has been examined to microscopic detail. Some believe he will play well if several conditions are met, some believe those conditions can’t or won’t be met.

    Now, does it matter a bit? Rose plays ‘well’ the Knicks are a mediocre/bad team; Rose plays ‘bad’, the team sucks. I’m far more worried about the lack of real progress under Jackson, whose only plan amounts to overhauling the roster every year with questionable talent on questionable deals. Not the best way to develop sustainable growth, to say the least.

    That’s the real disease. Rose is just a symptom.

    The last 2 posts are quite Trumpian. Particulary the assumption that if Rose plays well, we are a mediocre to bad team. That’s just mind-bogging.

    Now, does it matter a bit? Rose plays ‘well’ the Knicks are a mediocre/bad team; Rose plays ‘bad’, the team sucks. I’m far more worried about the lack of real progress under Jackson, whose only plan amounts to overhauling the roster every year with questionable talent on questionable deals. Not the best way to develop sustainable growth, to say the least.

    See post 15 for where everyone’s disagreement lies. Z-man refuses to believe that the 2011 All-Star Team could be anything but a 50-win team at full health. This makes me laugh.

    The last 2 posts are quite Trumpian. Particulary the assumption that if Rose plays well, we are a mediocre to bad team. That’s just mind-bogging.

    You really have a hard time with facts, in this case the fact that the Knicks have several of last season’s worst shooters now on the roster. This is a fact. This is not a matter of debate. Your prerogative is to tell us why this isn’t a big deal, and how it will be better in the future. This is different from the fact stated above.

    It is a fact that Russia has conducted military operations in and annexed part of the Crimean peninsula. This is a fact. It is Trumpian to declare that (1) this has not happened and/or (2) that it’s really not a big deal or will be productive for Eastern European relations in the future.

    But Z-man, why can’t you offer arguments without taking personal shots at those who don’t share your imbecilic optimism in the face of consistently dismal results? This is, after all, a stats-oriented site,

    @16 – you’re right. It’s pretty obvious Z-man is not familiar with the idea that all propositions beginning with “if” resolve to a positive (“yes!”) outcome when fact-based odds are ignored. If my grandma starts shooting 67% from midcourt, she will make the NBA.

    . If you look at our starting lineups it’s obvious that Phil understands the value of a balanced roster with complimentary skills sets, not just as many volume scorers as possible. The only question is whether our core players will stay healthy enough to play at a high level, which has nothing to do with mo points, mo $$.

    I’m not really sure how this team fits together. The offense has maybe 3 guys who can’t score (hopefully 2, but we don’t know what Porzingis is going to give us), and the perimeter defense is probably going to be subpar. I’m guessing the offense is going to try to compensate for poor shooting with ball movement and rebounding, but we’re also featuring a ball dominant PG who isn’t much of a passer. I dunno.

    I’ve offered dozens of propositions and backed them up with facts that you don’t care to accept because they clash with yours. You two are so immersed in your shitty outlooks that you assume the worst case scenario at all times. For example, you think that Rose is virtually washed up at age 27, Noah at age 31, and Melo at age 32. You ignore that Porzingis is reasonably likely to improve to all-star level this year, and superstar level beyond that (if you doubt that, tell me, what could he fetch in a trade right now?). You ignore that Lee is an very solid 3 and D 2-guard, that half the roster is composed of promising youngish players on rookie or minimum deals. You minimize that we have all of our #1 picks for the first time in several decades. You ignore the possibility that injuries heal but sometimes it takes longer. You are agnostic about chemistry and synergy, or that coaching matters very much. Your assumption that if Rose plays well, the Knicks will be bad anyway attests to this.

    Your intellects are hopelessly tainted by PTSD from the past. Jowles actually revels in the Knicks’ failures, as I believe he is on the record saying that he hopes the Knicks never do well so long as Dolan is the owner.

    But that’s fine. You both can continue to enjoy living in your miserable little “realities” and I’ll manage living in my optimistic “fantasies.”

    When it comes to Rose, it shocks me how little people bring this fact up. In his MVP season, his stats weren’t really that great. Don’t get me wrong, 25ppg 8apg 4rpg and 1spg on 44% shooting isn’t bad at all, on the surface. He was really good that season. His size and athleticism at the PG spot was otherworldly. However, Westbrooks 2015 season was better than Rose’s MVP season even with the poor percentage from deep, IMO. I use Westbrook as a comp because he looked like a man amongst boys athletically at the PG spot much like Rose did in his MVP year. Westbrook just did so much more with his athleticism.

    Although I’ve always felt Rose was a tad overrated, I don’t want to come off as a Rose basher. I think he’s a really talented player. More than anything, he needs to realize that his place on the roster hierarchy. IMO, if you play the PG position and you have guys like Melo/KP/Lee/Noah in the starting 5 with you, you need to figure out how to leverage that. Regardless of how good you can score at that position, Melo/KP/Lee/Noah makes your job easier. Much easier- especially at this point in Rose’s career. Hopefully Rose can leverage the talent on the roster with him and become more efficient. That’s kind of his job, and the stars are aligned for him to be able to do so. In a perfect scenario, everyone in that starting 5’s efficiency goes up a little because of the sheer talent in it. But we all know that’s typically not how it works. I’m rooting for it though.

    Derrick Rose is just a no-win situation for the Knicks. Either he’s terrible and he was a waste of assets, or he’s good and we run the risk of him getting a godawful extension. The one scenario that seems completely unrealistic is that Rose plays well enough to earn a max contract, then is a healthy and productive player over the life of that contract. That scenario has an infinitesimally small chance of actually happening.

    The last 2 posts are quite Trumpian. Particulary the assumption that if Rose plays well, we are a mediocre to bad team. That’s just mind-bogging.

    Seriously. Clearly some people are suffering from Knicks derangement syndrome. Symptoms include inability to concede that if Rose and Noah stay healthy and play well, this team is going to be fucking awesome. It’s one thing to doubt that both of them can and will stay healthy and play well, but to say that our ceiling is mediocrity *if both of them do* is just… pathetic. And highly ironic coming from the camp that routinely calls other people imbecilic.

    I can’t wait to see the rhetorical and logical gymnastics display that goes down on the part of the Eyeores if and when this team is actually good. Will they be too proud to eat crow and enjoy the success? I feel bad for those who have so argued themselves into a corner that they won’t be able to enjoy a winning basketball team because gosh darn it it’s simply IMPOSSIBLE that Derrick Rose could ever be the starting PG on a good team.

    I’ve offered dozens of propositions and backed them up with facts that you don’t care to accept because they clash with yours. You two are so immersed in your shitty outlooks that you assume the worst case scenario at all times. For example, you think that Rose is virtually washed up at age 27, Noah at age 31, and Melo at age 32. You ignore that Porzingis is reasonably likely to improve to all-star level this year, and superstar level beyond that (if you doubt that, tell me, what could he fetch in a trade right now?). You ignore that Lee is an very solid 3 and D 2-guard, that half the roster is composed of promising youngish players on rookie or minimum deals.

    No.

    Rose is not washed up because he’s 27. He’s washed up because after three “minor” knee surgeries, his years 25 and 26 were candidates for “worst starting guard in the NBA.” He has essentially been the Bargnani of scoring guards. Do we have to keep talking about this until you agree that they were really as bad as every reasonable poster says they are?

    Noah is not washed up. He is 31, coming off a terrible seasons on offense, but contributes a lot of value in rebounding and defense when he’s on the floor… which is a huge risk, since he’s been injured a lot. He also just received a 4-year deal, which means that there’s a good chance we’ve seen the best basketball from him already. Might he be Kevin Garnett and remain productive into his mid-thirties? Sure. Is it likely? Nah.

    Melo is Melo. I’m not wasting more breath on this. Still has a mega-max and the league’s only NTC. Whatever.

    Lee was a good pickup, but he is a run-of-the-mill NBA starter. Porzingis was a below-average player and has several years to either improve or not improve. He is the Knicks true wildcard, as he is not facing injury or age dropoff.

    This is your cause for optimism?

    Half of the roster is composed of rookie deals and UFA pickups.

    Sometimes I think you purposely ignore facts to fit your narrative. The reason the Knicks are half UFA contracts is because they spent all of the rest of their cap room on veterans! This is supposed to be a cause for optimism?

    Lee, Melo, Rose, Noah, Thomas and Jennings comprise 94% of the Knicks’ salary cap. OF FUCKING COURSE the rest of the roster is rookie-deal and UFAs. Come the fuck on!

    The idea that the Knicks are the Neanderthals of the league…

    I didn’t say the Knicks were any better or any worse than any other team when it comes to valuing PPG over TS%, /36, Orating, WP, or any other relevant stat. The fact is, players earn max money by scoring max points. That’s not the only way, but it is the most obvious way. The only reason the Knicks haven’t paid max money to the highest PPG players is, in all coherent likelihood, because those players, as you noticed, haven’t been available to them.

    That will change if Derrick Rose averages 20 this year by shooting 21 shots a game. Then the Knicks will have to show us whether they’ll are, in fact, the Neanderthals of the league. Until then, this isn’t really a sustainable argument for either of us.

    Symptoms include inability to concede that if Rose and Noah stay healthy and play well, this team is going to be fucking awesome.

    Define well. Rose playing like a league average level PG would be awesome, but it wouldn’t add that many wins, you know? If Noah plays well and produces like Robin Lopez (Robin Lopez played well last year), is this team going to win 57 games? Yeah, if everyone plays great this is a team that can do some damage, but that’s a fucking tautology.

    or he’s good and we run the risk of him getting a godawful extension.

    Well by all means, let’s get angry about it now! I think the Rose four year max extension, on top of the max deal we gave Greg Monroe, trading down to pick Trey Lyles, and hiring Kurt Rambis as head coach might make Phil the worst GM of all time in the “oh wait that didn’t fucking happen” basketball association.

    Do you guys need some paper bags to breathe into? You gonna be okay?

    Clearly some people are suffering from Knicks derangement syndrome.

    Less clear, though, is why those people seem to be right a majority of the time.

    The only reason the Knicks haven’t paid max money to the highest PPG players is, in all coherent likelihood, because those players, as you noticed, haven’t been available to them.

    Is there any reason you can’t or won’t acknowledge the several examples already provided where the Knicks have recently invested money in low-usage, defensive oriented players over comparably priced and very much available alternatives who scored more on a per game basis?

    Is there any reason you can’t or won’t acknowledge the several examples already provided where the Knicks have recently invested money in low-usage, defensive oriented players over comparably priced and very much available alternatives who scored more on a per game basis?

    Derrick Rose is a prime example, I guess.

    Define well.

    If Rose plays at league average level he will be a huge step up from Calderon, who gave the team absolutely nothing aside from accurate-but-infrequent spot up shooting. No ability to push the pace, no ability to get into the paint or create easy looks for his teammates, no ability to defend whatsoever. By his own admission, he should have been a back-up, but if a supremely athletic (still) former MVP plays to even league average standards that’s totally not going to move the needle.

    If Joakim Noah plays well, he’s a lot better than Robin Lopez. This is the best passing big man in the league, someone who can guard multiple positions and has consistently anchored some of the absolute best defenses in the NBA even when too injured to make a layup. When Noah is healthy, Robin Lopez isn’t fit to carry his luggage. But nah, won’t change anything, even if Noah is healthy.

    Courntey Lee, a good defender and accurate shooter who knows his role is going to be a huge upgrade over Afflalo, who was a seive on defense and a ball stopping isolationist. Sure that won’t make a difference.

    Oh yeah, and KP, the “below average” NBA player who did nothing aside from have a historically productive rookie season at age 20. He might have even improved, hopefully even up to average!

    Oh yes, and a recent COTY runner up instead of Fisher and Rambis, I’m sure that will make no difference.

    No sir, if everyone stays healthy and plays well this team will still suck! Nothing to see here, folks. The Knicks will suck *no matter what.*. Lol.

    Derrick Rose is a prime example, I guess.

    Sure, if you misunderstood the question. Still waiting to hear which free agent chuckers we signed to long term (one year contracts are not investments, particularly when you don’t give up anything that you didn’t immediately replace with an upgrade) deals over lower-usage, better defending alternatives who were available at the same cost, but okay. But I’ll humor you and ask which lower usage, better defending PG we could have realistically signed for one year, $20 million in lieu of Rose, who would have been a clear upgrade over both Rose and the untenable status quo of Calderon and Grant. Please enlighten me.

    I don’t know how legit these rankings are, but ESPN’s analytics rankings have us in the bottom 2 or 3 in the NBA in use and endorsement of analytics, and in the bottom 10 ranks when it’s expanded to all major US sports franchises. If that ranking means something, that’s pretty damning. And it’s pretty reasonable that it would mean something, given our track record and propensity for overpaying aging low-to-no-defense volume scorers who have mediocre efficiency stats.

    http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings

    Literally every free agent PG would be an upgrade over what Rose has done the last four seasons

    That’s a) not true, b) not a real answer and c) the free agent signings that the Rose trade precipitated allowed us to also sign Brandon Jennings on a cheap one year deal, and I guess by definition he is better than Derrick Rose, so I guess we’re good. Nice chat.

    Well by all means, let’s get angry about it now! I think the Rose four year max extension, on top of the max deal we gave Greg Monroe, trading down to pick Trey Lyles, and hiring Kurt Rambis as head coach might make Phil the worst GM of all time in the “oh wait that didn’t fucking happen” basketball association.

    What’s the “good” potential outcome from the Derrick Rose trade? What is the best case scenario in your opinion?

    Last season Rose was 77th out of 81 PGs in Real Plus minus, 118th out of 129 guards in Win Shares,second to last in Wins Produced and dead last in ESPN’s wins. I’m not kidding. Pretty much everyone was better than him. Brandon Jennings was much vastly superior to Derrick Rose the last 4 years, and Brandon Jennings isn’t that good. But yes, if everyone on the Knicks plays really well next year, the Knicks will be very good. How likely do you think that is?

    Derrick Rose still has above average athleticism for a PG in the NBA but even in our wildest dreams I don’t think anyone here is expecting Rose to have as much athleticism as before his injuries. That is a problem since Rose relies so much on his athleticism to be productive.

    It reminds me a lot of two other very athletic, penetration based PGs that were on this roster years ago, Steve Francis and Stephon Marbury. If you compare their first 4 seasons with Rose’s first four seasons you see many similarities. If you look at their careers their efficiency fell off a cliff as soon as they started losing their otherworldly athleticism. They lost it because they got older and lost a step. The thing is they didn’t decline gradually, they went from being very productive players to out of the NBA in two years.

    The amount of athleticism players lose between 28-30 is not great and most players decline but stay productive, that 5% or 10% decrease is not the end of their careers. Marbury and Francis were still very athletic PGs when they retired, still above average athletically, but the small decline from age 28-30 was the difference between them finishing at the rim and drawing fouls and not. What I’m afraid of is that Rose even after a full recovery lost that same 5%-10% of his athleticism because of his injuries and while he is still physically gifted he is no longer elite, no longer otherworldly and therefore unable to play the game the way he always has.

    But I’ll humor you and ask which lower usage, better defending PG we could have realistically signed for one year, $20 million in lieu of Rose, who would have been a clear upgrade over both Rose and the untenable status quo of Calderon and Grant. Please enlighten me.

    Not even trying to be snarky, a far more difficult question is what PG could’ve possibly been worse?

    Is there a single NBA team that can’t say they’ll be good if everything goes absolutely perfectly? Is that really what the apologists are falling back on? How good we’ll be if a bunch of things that are statistically improbable happen to occur?

    Still waiting to hear which free agent chuckers we signed to long term (one year contracts are not investments, particularly when you don’t give up anything that you didn’t immediately replace with an upgrade)

    I see this a lot with the Rose trade apologists. They seem to think if they say we didn’t give anything up enough times it’ll become accepted and/or true. The “he’s just a one year flyer” defense. It has no basis in reality. Robin Lopez is 28 and has a .135 career WS48. He makes around what Courtney Lee (age 30, career .088 WS48) makes. That’s an asset, there are no two ways about it. As for Grant, well, he was 30/60 in his rookie class in WS48, higher than that in WP48, and the rookie curve for point guards is historically harsher than it is for other positions. I don’t think trading him is much different than trading a first round pick.

    Well by all means, let’s get angry about it now! I think the Rose four year max extension, on top of the max deal we gave Greg Monroe, trading down to pick Trey Lyles, and hiring Kurt Rambis as head coach might make Phil the worst GM of all time in the “oh wait that didn’t fucking happen” basketball association.

    Are we allowed to be angry about the fact that Phil Jackson’s “win now” teams have won 17 and 32 games?

    Are we allowed to be angry about the fact that Phil Jackson’s “win now” teams have won 17 and 32 games?

    The apologists will quickly point out how that’s a 15-game “improvement”. The bar is pretty low as long as they are fed ‘names’ to attach to their dreams, a technique Dolan has mastered to perfection.

    We have good, valid reasons for being optimistic about Porzingis and pessimistic about Rose. It’s not that complicated. Really .

    If my math is right Rose had about a 41 TS% in 18 games with the mask on and a 51 TS% in 48 games when it came off. Still not great but not close to worst PG in the league numbers without the double vision.

    The thing about Derrick Rose playing better when he’s healthy is that he gets hurt all the time.

    Rose did play a pretty full season without getting badly injured other than breaking his face, which is probably a cause for some optimism. If he can stay about as healthy as last year and not break his face it seems reasonable to think he’ll be better. I just don’t think it’s reasonable to think he’ll be good. I’d be less surprised than I would have been if Brags had been productive, but I don’t know how you can look at Roses career and think he’s likely to be good next season.

    Is there any reason you can’t or won’t acknowledge the several examples already provided where the Knicks have recently invested money in low usage players…

    I haven’t axknowledged them because they are moot to my argument, which is about Rose earning a max contract, not about any of the things that you are trying to inject into it.

    Ok, it’s clear the prevailing opinion is that Rose sucks and will suck more next year for the Knicks. I happen to think he has more talent and more upside than Calderon and Grant so he may have been worth the risk and he’ll surely be motivated. We’ll have to wait and see.

    What about signing Lance Stephenson? Is he worth taking a flyer on at the vets minimum? He’s talented and crazy. What does Knickerblogger think about going after Lance? ( if nothing else discussing this will be a distraction from the Rose analysis/predictions/argument)

    Dred, I’m more interesting in talking about Jiwei Zhao. He’s the starting point guard for the Chinese national team. In the game today, he had five assist and six rebounds, and a number of his passes went to Chinese bigs near the net who couldn’t score and didn’t draw a foul despite trying a shot. He’s only 20 years old, so I think he might get very good. I thought he was being ignored as a potential NBA player because either a) China has a reputation for bigs or b) I am a lousy judge of NBA potential (which certainly could be the case). But it turns out that also foreign players aren’t NBA draft eligible until the year they turn 22, which is next year in Jiwei’s case, so maybe this is why no one mentions him. If he has NBA potential and is already a good in International play, it seems a shame that he will play another year in the Chinese Basketball league (from an American point of view). Did anyone seem him play? If so, what did you think?

    Does anyone know why foreign players have to wait so long to be draft eligible?

    Note that Marv Albert persists in calling him Jiwei, which I am sure is his given name not his family name, and this was very confusing for me at first. He kept calling Yi Jainlian “Jianlian” too, so I finally figured this out.

    I’d take a chance on Stephenson. He played really well in the playoffs against the Spurs and can get away with blowing in Lebron’s ear.

    I would not take a risk on Lance. Too crazy.

    re: Rose, yes he may very well suck, or get injured, or both. I’m not expecting him to be great, just better than anything we have run out there in the last decade or more, which isn’t saying much. If he doesn’t meet that criterion, I’ll be disappointed and deal with it. If he does, I’ll be psyched. Let’s see how that turns out.

    What I take more issue with is this BS that the current state of the Knicks is the same as it has been over recent years, or anything close to it.

    For example, look at this nonsense from Jowles: “Melo is Melo. I’m not wasting more breath on this. Still has a mega-max and the league’s only NTC. Whatever.”

    Who the fuck cares? He was not going to be traded anyway, and his contract is now below his current market value. The fact that you lament over his NTC is laughably contradictory! He has tons of trade value because his contract is crazy reasonable and most teams would jump on his current contract if he were available! So in essence, you criticize Phil for being stuck with an asset that everyone wants at his current price?

    Not to mention that he is the talk of the athletic world for his leadership on social issues. Ant that he’s playing fucking great in the Olympics. And you are concerned that he can’t be traded?????

    So apparently spike Lee has been trying to convince Ray Allen to take a vet min contract with the Knicks…

    Lance Stephenson has had a rather schizo career but he played well last year, especially with the Grizzlies, where he seemed to fit in and give good effort. As a veteran minimum pickup he would seem to be a no-brainer, but he is a definite nut case and there is the rather ugly domestic violence incident in his past. So I dunno.

    Sometimes I think you purposely ignore facts to fit your narrative. The reason the Knicks are half UFA contracts is because they spent all of the rest of their cap room on veterans! This is supposed to be a cause for optimism?

    Lee, Melo, Rose, Noah, Thomas and Jennings comprise 94% of the Knicks’ salary cap. OF FUCKING COURSE the rest of the roster is rookie-deal and UFAs. Come the fuck on!

    Rose and Jennings (at $5 mill!!!) expire this year. Melo makes less than Mike Conley. Noah is probably overpaid, I’ll give you that. Lee, Thomas and O’Quinn are on fair value deals. This is not a Melo-Amare situation from 2012.

    The guys on rookie deals include: The ROY runner up on his way to a superstar career, a sure-fire 2016 first round pick in Hernangomez, a couple of intriguing wings in Kuz and Ndour, and promising guards in Baker and Randle. Isn’t that an improvement over Seraphin, Early and Grant? Or guys like Travis Wear?

    I’d like to see Hernangomez play. Does anyone know if the Spain Olympic basketball game tomorrow will be on TV or stream anywhere?

    NBC Sports Network is showing the Spain vs Croatia game tomorrow at 5pm. All the basketball games are streamed live on the NBC website.

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