Clyde will never have the opportunity to say that. If Nickel makes it onto the floor for us in an NBA game, one thing he *won’t* be doing is passing the ball (a “dime”) to anyone else, or even really be *expected to* pass the ball to anyone else. He’s a really good shooter, and can’t do much of anything else (although he possesses good size and at least tries a little bit on defense).

Question: If Nickel can make our squad, would he be more of a Shamet replacement with a little bit more size and a little less defense, or more of a Clarkson replacement with better shooting and less of looking for his own shot? For the most part, Nickel scores off of passes—but dude only needs like a second to get his shot off. It’s actually kind of remarkable to watch.I’m thinking he tops out at Duncan Robinson (who was actually undrafted) if he develops, which really is not bad at all for a pick that low.

Still wish we had picked up a behemoth Center as Mitch insurance, though, whether he leaves or gets injured. I want to believe in Huk, and for sure he’s had his moments, but I haven’t seen enough to be excited by him or think that he can really be a piece for us.

It looks like LaMelo is on the move. It also looks like he just had his most efficient season in ’26. Bucks, Wolves, Raptors interested… I’d like to see him on the Warriors

How to look at the draft, glass half full edition:

The natural assumption by many (myself included) was that the Knicks pinched pennies last night to stay under the apron.

There’s another way to look at it, though.

Let’s say Dolan is willing to let Leon & Co go over the second apron to run it back. That would put the Knicks payroll somewhere around $230M. The luxury tax line is $201M. The bracket for being $30-$36.5M over is 5.75% (the Knicks are not a repeater, more on that later).

Let’s assume the front office knows they can sign these guys for the minimum like Diawara. That’s about 1.4M each, 2.8 total.

The two picks we had (24 & 31) probably would have cost $6M

That $3.2M difference, at a rate of 5.75, saved Dolan over $18M in tax.

In sum, this could signify we are planning to bring everyone back, and Brock did his magic not to avoid the apron, but to minimize the tax bill. The guys we got at 24 & 31 would have been better, but not worth $18M.

Hubs, that’s what I’ve been thinking. We will go into the SA but Dolan doesn’t want us to go crazy over it, so we’re doing everything we can to go as little over it as possible

You can also be over the SA during the season but get under it before the end, and it doesn’t count towards the penalties.

That said, I’m assuming it is what it is, and we will not go over it.

On the repeater tax, it’s been suggested that the Knicks will begin paying repeater rates this season. That’s incorrect.

In fact, this is the last season they can go all-in while paying standard luxury tax rates, which makes spending this year even more compelling.

A team pays the repeater tax only if it finishes the current season over the tax line after having been a taxpayer in three of the previous four seasons. The current season does not count toward satisfying that test.

When the Knicks finish next season over the tax line, the four preceding seasons will include only two taxpayer seasons (2024-25 & 2025-26). That means they’ll still pay the standard tax rates next year.

What does that mean?

I’ve seen people suggest it would cost $100 million in tax just to bring Mitch & Landry back. That’s overstated.

If the Knicks go right up to the second apron, as expected, their tax bill would be roughly $45 million (which is what they paid this past season).

If they went $11 million over the second apron, the tax bill would be roughly $95 million. That’s not an additional $95 million; it’s roughly $50 million more than staying at the apron.

For context, the Suns, Clippers, and Warriors have all paid luxury tax bills well north of $150 million.

Longer term, the math changes. If everyone receives the extensions currently being discussed and the core stays together, the luxury tax bill is astronomical.

So you can throw Jeremy Cohen’s remedial analysis out the window. It was built on the assumption that the Knicks will simply extend everyone to keep the starting 5 intact indefinitely. I did the math on his imaginary 2028-29 roster and the tax bill is almost $400M.

There is nothing compelling about an argument which suggests we should sacrifice today for a tomorrow that will never come. We’re not extending OG at age 31 when a $50M salary comes with a $200M tax bill.

The reality is that the Knicks probably have a 2–3 year championship window before the luxury tax bill (not the second-apron restrictions) becomes the real obstacle keeping this core together.

All signs point to now.

Just spitballin’ here…

I think Mitch is the priority signing and that the two parties have already settled on a number that his camp will accept and that Leon can pay without committing 2A “suicide.”

The FO went into the draft with that number top of mind. They had a shortlist of players they liked who would accept the $1.3 MM 2nd rd min in 26/27 and then set Brock loose to position the team to select them. That none of the players targeted in any way, shape, or form resembled a Mitch replacement was a tell.

I’m no capologist so can’t really guess what Mitch’s next number might be. I would guess that it leaves no room for the team to retain Shamet, which is sad. The sharpshooter Nickel will likely be given an opportunity to audition for his role or we’ll see Leon try & pluck another eclair out of the trash. The team prob sees Mitch’s skillset as harder to replace cheaply than Landry’s and is proceeding accordingly.

Not pertinent to the draft, but thought I’d share. For proper spacing see:

https://notapoem.com/roundball-blues/

ROUNDBALL BLUES

It’s not the chain-linked, West 4th war courts,
nor the restless irons encircling

in pale gray aboves..

Not the charity stipend of a peacekeeper,
for their bing-bong asphalts

wearing warm parade pennies thrown..

Not a bending knee (it don’t know no Never),
as evening elevated, claiming

shells of when petrified shots did stray..

Not the off, stick-&-move routine implosions,
into abysmal, Abyssinian realities;

desert watch’s negativity, peninsular..

And no to that boxed out, major collective,
reflections: this crazed that line

misaccorded, attemps stark, adumbrated..

Neither (either, ever) silky jumper past pinch-
post, nor baseline divvies

sorting up banal, rash carpeting theft..

To negate, too, a canonical, a projectile tip:
trajectory’s violence spiraling,

at odds, heedless ends, hollering all ball..

Ne’er stretched o’er buildings’ depth, balloons
thru circuitous held air,

gasp-light, & the ones finally nestling..

Put another (shorter) way:

In two years, when trading Mikal Bridges can save $150M, do you think Mikal Bridges is still going to be on the team?

The second apron problem will solve itself when the tax bills come.

Nice job, Hubert.

One other thought.

Mitch is sooo important to the team culture. Not only is he the longest tenured Knick, there appears to be a genuine love between him and his teammates. In many ways, he’s the emotional heart of the club.

We also know that personal relationships are very important to Mitch, who famously brought his Louisiana HS coach to live with him in NYC. I doubt that earning more $ elsewhere among folks he doesn’t know is something he really wants to do.

In short, both sides have compelling reasons that go beyond just basketball fit and money to make sure that Mitch remains a Knick.

Plus, the Kawhi/Ballmer misadventure has added additional scrutiny to cap avoidant schemes. No question, Leon has knowledge of and access to player revenue streams across the entire spectrum of sponsorship opportunities and partnerships. But the risks of exploiting these avenues and putting Dolan in the crosshairs of the league ties his hands.

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