Knicks Morning News (2018.11.30)

I hope so.

Thanks, Owen! Bring back doubleheaders!!

As an aside, I tried (unsuccessfully) to find evidence of Wilt wearing an alternative jersey that game…pretty sure it had to be March 12, 1968, as it was in the new MSG and that was Wilt’s last year with the 76ers. In researching, I was not only reminded that these 4-team doubleheaders a major thing dating way back, but that in the early ’60s, when there was a doubleheader, literally half of the teams in the league were in one building!

Frank looks like someone who might benefit from tough love.

Kevin looks like someone who woke up three seconds ago.

To me, they look like kids whose beards and underarm hair isn’t even finished filling out. That makes them about 5-7 years away from their peaks (give or take).

I haven’t changed my view at all despite all the trade talk and scout bashing.

I still think we had a good draft overall and have quite a few good young pieces. Knox wasn’t my first choice and I initially had reservations about Frank that may turn out to be correct, but I still love Frank now despite the shooting woes and like Trier, Robinson, and Vonleh. It’s WAY too early to know what Knox will become.

I think the Knicks should keep doing what they are doing, though I think settling into more stable rotations would be beneficial. The idea is to develop the rookies and see who among the reclamation projects might be able to stick long term in case it seems obvious Leonard, Durant, and Irving are not coming. If no legit max player is coming, then we should selectively add players like Vonleh (or whoever) long term if they prove themselves. As long as they are good players on fair contracts, they can be moved later. We should roll the remaining cap space over. Wherever that lands us in the draft is fine by me.

As long as they are good players on fair contracts, they can be moved later.

I guess that’s strong evidence that Courtney Lee is either not a good player or he wasn’t signed to a fair contract.

That Durant game a) was awesome, and b) is why I think he might actually come here. He’d get to do that all the time.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25407024/10-things-like-including-luka-doncic-moves-nba

I normally like Zach Lowe (obviously), but his bit about Zach LeVine’s defense is plain wrong with the clip he shows at #8.

Sexton head-fakes not one, not two, but three of Bulls defenders like he’s channeling Andre Miller. Watch Robin Lopez, Chandler Hutchison and LaVine all make a hard feint after Sexton looks right and creates space for Clarkson. (Note that this is not the normal “spacing” argument, where a player’s mere presence makes open looks for his teammates. This is a savvy move that sets the defense off-balance.)

I expect better from Lowe. I don’t think there are many defenders in the league that wouldn’t have bit on that fake, especially since Sexton is looking right between the Hutchison/LaVine gap for a teammate that he knows isn’t there.

Are we talking about the same Angband where Fingolfin challenged Morgoth to mortal combat?

Aside: if the Amazon Prime show that they’re making with Tolkien’s rights is anything other than 8 seasons of The Silmarillion I’m going to be extremely disappointed.

I had heard it was going to be based on the Hurin/Huor book that came out a few years ago (which was just putting their stories from the Silmarillion into one separate book). I just hope it is not done like the Hobbit movies

I guess that’s strong evidence that Courtney Lee is either not a good player or he wasn’t signed to a fair contract.

IMO, Lee is a solid 3 point shooter, plays average defense, and is a great locker room guy/vet to have on a team of young players. He’s a borderline starter depending on the team and would be a good piece on a few playoff teams.

I think he was signed to a fair contract in the market in which he was a free agent, but the market changed because the cap did not grow as fast as expected (that accounts for quite a few deals that made sense at the time but look sketchy now). His playing did not change.

I also think the current market is not efficient. IMO, the market is overvaluing draft picks (perhaps by a lot given the age of the draftees, their development time, and the risk of having to extend a player before they have proven their worth or are productive enough to warrant it).

I think current management has been overvaluing Lee because he’s such a great guy to have on the team and they were putting a lot of value on that. That held up potential deals previously. At this point though, I’m not even sure what their plans are. They know they have to get him on the court before they can deal him. They still value him highly as a player and as a locker room presence. They also want space. Sometimes you have to sell in a bad market at the wrong time because a better deal is available.

I think he was signed to a fair contract in the market in which he was a free agent, but the market changed because the cap did not grow as fast as expected (that accounts for quite a few deals that made sense at the time but look sketchy now). His playing did not change.

The cap was projected to be around $5m higher than it currently is. This is what would make all the difference?

Courtney Lee is the epitome of the NBA career journeyman: good enough to hand around, from team to team; not good enough to move the needle in a significant way. His contract is a mistake.

Yeah we should have offered courtney something like 2 years 36 million (actually we shouldn’t have signed him at all, but given that the Knicks thought they were going to be good)

@23

Lee’s age will be relevant to some teams depending on where they are in their development and what they need. Other than that, he could be 45 and if you think he’ll be productive for 2 more years based on what you know it shouldn’t matter.

The injury is an issue because it puts a “?” on his current level of play, but imo, he was as good last year as he ever was. I see no reason he won’t come back from a “neck issue” fine after a few weeks of catching up and getting his condition and stroke back. If it was a knee, back, or serious problem it would be different. He’ll probably start off bad in general even if he has a good game here or there. Then he’ll get sharper.

On our current path our future is a few years away. We don’t need him. We may need space. If we have to pay to move him we probably will even though imo it would be a bad deal. But a small bad deal that paves the way for Durant is not something I would not complain about.

The Clippers won again, moved to 15-6 and are 10-2 since moving SGA to the starting lineup. I’m starting to think they might be the current NBA version of that Nuggets 2013 team they won 57 games.

A lot of really efficient and productive good players without a real superstar, a rotation that can go 10 deep and maybe even more, a lot better on offense than defense… also, Tobias Harris might just be a star after all those years bouncing around.

Doing more reading than posting the last few days. With big mood swings about the team, I wanted to figure out whether it’s just wins and losses influencing me or something else.

It is something else. It is the creeping dread that the Frank/Dot/Mudiay/Hez situation looks like what it seems to be: Perry’s guys, and not Perry’s guys. There is no worse factor in decision-making than needing to be right. I do believe they gave Frank a shot, but he struggled, and it seems like they no longer believe in him. But that is less of a problem to them when he isn’t their guy. We traded low on Willy, and it seems likely we’re about to do the same with Frank, because he is not their guy.

Do I think Frank is good now? No. Do I think he’s an NBA player? Maybe. Do I think we should give a young cost-controlled asset as much playing time as possible to know for sure? Yes. The same, of course, for Dotson, who at least had shown he could be a fine bench player… Again, cost-controlled.

But Perry drafted Hez, and wants to prove he’s right, when there IS NO UPSIDE AT ALL TO DOING SO. With him and Mudiay, proving he was right only means paying market value to keep them. Utterly pointless. Giving up on Frank now? Also pointless.

If the people making the decisions are not only making poor decisions based on outdated points of view (“pointzz”), but also because they need to prove their mistakes were not mistakes, there is truly little hope.

And I felt so optimistic a week ago…

@27

In the NBA, I don’t think so (he’d still be an RFA). Maybe in Europe or China?

In the NBA, I don’t think so (he’d still be an RFA). Maybe in Europe or China?

Maybe China, but doesn’t Europe respect G-League contracts? I forget. But anyhow, the key thing to remember is that he is currently under contract for the whole year right now. So he’s already stuck with the Knicks, it’s just a question of whether it is here or the G-League (or maybe China ;)).

Mike Vorkunov dropped some knowledge that I didn’t know. We recently learned that Trier told other teams in the second round not to draft him because he wanted to go undrafted and sign with the Knicks rather than get drafted by the specific teams that were interested in him. Which sounds good for the Knicks. However, Vorkunov says that the Knicks actually told Trier that they were going to use their second on him and they changed their mind when MitchRob was surprisingly available at their pick, so Vorkunov thinks that Trier might bear a grudge over that. I didn’t know that that had happened.

https://nypost.com/2018/11/29/gregg-popovich-hates-the-way-the-nba-game-is-played-now/

I guess me and Pop see most things similarly…

But why not try to get to restricted free agency at the end of this season? A two-year/$10 million contract offer from a team wouldn’t be out of the ordinary at all, right? The Knicks gave Ron Baker 2/$9 million just last season! Especially if the Knicks are obsessed with clearing out max cap space, someone making Trier a 2/$10 million contract offer would totally screw with the Knicks’ cap room and you could almost see the Knicks passing on such an offer.

Question: does Durant winning a championship this year (or not) affect his decision to leave the Warriors? I personally think he’s made his mind up already, but winning his 2nd title might make him more willing to go somewhere where his chances are way lower to win another (i.e. your NY Knicks)

Thoughts?

But Lee can be dumped whenever we want! (Extremely sad face)

Trier got lucky to be drafted by the Knicks.

Whoa, Trier wasn’t drafted by the Knicks. He was signed as an undrafted FA. He probably had lots of choices, so while he may be lucky that the Knicks showed interest, if he picked the Knicks precisely because of what you said, that’s skillful analysis, not luck. I think what you meant to say is that he was lucky not to get drafted at all…that makes sense.

Well, Trier certainly does not lack confidence in his game, so I totally believe he looked at the teams interested in him and chose the Knicks precisely to get more playing time. He bet on himself on the draft, and my feeling is that he’s going to bet on himself again with his contract. I doubt the Knicks will be able to get a super value contract like the Robinson one with him. I think he’d be very stupid to not sign with the Knicks and go back to the G-League, because that would really destroy the hype around him, but I can see him pushing for a short term contract.

They can’t afford to lose any cap space and they only have two days to decide, so they have to not match. Durant then signs elsewhere.

Isn’t this how Houston lost Chandler Parsons? They were waiting for Bosh and Anthony to consider their offer and the Parsons offer sheet expired a day earlier?

I apologize for even putting this scenario into the ether, but I just thought of a worst case scenario. Trier signs for just the rest of this season. First day of free agency, Durant says he will meet with five teams over the course of five days, the Knicks being one of them. Team X (let’s say….I dunno…Sacramento) offers Trier a two-year deal for $12 million at midnight of the first day of free agency. Durant tells Knicks he is seriously considering them. They can’t afford to lose any cap space and they only have two days to decide, so they have to not match. Durant then signs elsewhere. Soul crushing how realistic that scenario sounds, right?

I imagined this scenario as soon as you made the details of his restricted free agency clear to me.

Unless we sign him to a multi-year deal, I expect him to be poached on day 1 of free agency. Why wouldn’t a team offer him 4 year, $20mm? That’s a solid investment.

I imagined this scenario as soon as you made the details of his restricted free agency clear to me.

Unless we sign him to a multi-year deal, I expect him to be poached on day 1 of free agency. Why wouldn’t a team offer him 4 year, $20mm? That’s a solid investment.

At least teams are restricted by the Gilbert Arenas Rule if they try to sign Trier, but nowadays, that’s not much of a restriction since the mid-level is like $9 million so an offer like 4/$20 million would be easily fit under the Gilbert Arenas Rule.

I genuinely wonder if any player cares about this. I know Kobe did. LeBron probably did in the beginning before he realized he had no chance and he seemed a lot happier after he gave up on it. I can’t see why it would matter to Kevin Durant. He is probably more interested in his private equity book than chasing a sociopath’s ring total.

He cared enough about winning titles to go to Golden State in the first place, no? It’s not like he went there thinking, “This is going to be my team.”

He is probably more interested in his private equity book than chasing a sociopath’s ring total.

I think Durant needs a therapist.

Wow, the Rockets really made out like bandits on that one.

I think they all care about winning titles, Brian. But I think Chasing Jordan might be a myth.

Even if he gets 6, it’s not like people are going to put him on Jordan’s level. They’ll just say he had more help, he wasn’t always the best player on his team, etc.

I would think winning 4 in a row would be motivating. I don’t think any team in my lifetime has won four in a row in any sport. But who knows. (EDIT: I forgot hockey was a sport and the Islanders did this when I was a child in Long Island.)

No, Parsons wasn’t matched officially on the 13th. Here’s an article from that Tuesday (the 15th)

Oh, I see.

I guess I’m confusing it with Morey declining the option on Parson’s 4th year that made him an RFA in the first place. The whole point of not picking up the $900,000 4th year was to preserve that in cap space and then match once Bosh or whoever was signed first? Is that right? (Man, that was some crazy over-thinking on Morey’s part and he’s lucky that the best case scenario ultimately rose from the ashes that summer)

The thing with Frank… let’s say we make out like bandits and Durant does want to sign here. Are we seriously going to just surround him with inefficient scorers who don’t pass? Would we actually run Durant out with Mudiay, Hardaway, Knox, and Porzingis and make him fight them to get the ball?? How self-defeating can you get?

Frank would actually be the perfect point guard for Kevin Durant if he got his 3pt shooting % up. Just hand the ball to Durant, don’t take any of his shots, and play your ass off on D.

Vonleh would be a great Durant teammate, too. He’d add body crushing screens and physicality on the offense.

Hardaway would be fine, I guess. He’d be a poor man’s version of Klay who could punish teams if they pay too much attention to Durant.

But Knox and Mudiay? Come on. You want to surround Durant with guys who can contribute without the ball, and all we do is collect the opposite kind of players.

I found a statistic that between 1964 and 2014, 496 of 3,071 players had won a ring. Now that the league is 30 teams instead of 9, the percentage of players, retired or active, with a ring should get smaller and smaller.

So even if it were active NBA players ragging on Durant for his rings, we’d be talking about an extreme minority of them. The fact that Durant gives a shit about what Stephen A. Smith, or a random 13 yo on the internet, thinks of his success is mind-blowing to me. I’m not the world’s most self-assured guy (as in, I derive at least part of my self-worth from being better at basic predictive judgments than Z-man), but I’m also not among the world’s best athletes, worth $170M and a mega-celebrity that will never fail to receive preferential treatment at the most exclusive places on earth.

(as in, I derive at least part of my self-worth from being better at basic predictive judgments than Z-man)

Correction: (as in, I derive at least part of my self-worth from at some point in the distant past, having been ever so slightly better at basic predictive judgments than Z-man)

Re: Trier, he’s had a “decent” season for a 23-year-old “so far”, but you know who had a better one at age 22? Landry Fucking Fields, that’s who.

In other words, Trier hasn’t done shite yet and he should jump on a two- year midlevel if he gets it.

That’s a weird comparison for the sake of your point, as Fields got a 3-year/$20 million deal (under the older, much smaller cap) after his weaker sophomore season.

Trier’s options are as follows: the minimum contract, which can be a two-season deal. That’s what the Knicks hope he will take, but he likely won’t.

The bi-annual, which is $3.4 million a year, which can be a two-year deal (so 2 years/$7 million). That’s a lot of money. He might take that, but that’s still $3.4 million that will cut into the Knicks’ cap room this offseason.

The mid-level exception, which the Knicks only have $644,000 left of. They can give him that per season for up to four years.

I guess it could make sense to accept the 2 years/$7 million if the Knicks offer it (EDITED TO NOTE: actually, it would obviously be prorated, so it’d be less than $7 million, but you know what I mean). But if not, then I’d sooner take the minimum for the rest of this year and hope for a good deal in restricted free agency.

In other words, Trier hasn’t done shite yet and he should jump on a two- year midlevel if he gets it.

Agreed. He took a bad beat on the PED stuff, but he landed in the perfect spot to play and earn a contract. Take the contract, accept more PT, and earn the next one, too. No one wants to be Nerlens Noel.

Team options… sorry, I can’t keep my facts straight today. Dealing with a sinus cold that’s ravaging the Portland metro right now.

Good thing I’m only writing my year-end self-assessment for my employer all day. Low stakes there, too!

Yeah, 2 years at 7 is great for him especially since one of those years is this one where at the moment he’s only making around $80,000. If he take one year at the minimum that’s 850,000 this year and who knows next- if he gets two for ten that means he’s making roughly 11m for his first three seasons whereas with the biannual he’d be making 6.6 for the first two and then hit free agency. Lots of teams are going to have cap space so maybe he thinks there’s going to be a bigger payday than 2/10 but my guess is his agent would advise him to take the sure thing, establish himself here where there’s playing time and then hit free agency with a two year track record.

Mitch Rob’s foul rate has to be historic too. Still love him.

My guess is that Mitch is going to have a nice stretch coming up. He’s an amazing defender off of the ball but just isn’t strong enough to guard anybody good in the post like Gasol and his footwork isn’t good enough to deal with bigs with advanced dribble drive games like Blake and AD- he’s like a pure pass rushing defensive end who can neutralized by running at him. Thankfully besides Dwight and Embiid again (plus maybe Turner and Ayton) there aren’t a lot of those kind of guys on the schedule between now and New Years. As long as he doesn’t have guard The Greek Freak that is.

It’s crazy to have this team and not be able to project max cap space

I mean, if they sign Trier to a 2 year deal they better have a plan to get rid of Courtney Lee, or it doesn’t make any sense, which takes us back to the fact that nobody wants Courtney Lee anyway so thanks Phil!

I’m already seeing, the Suns are interested in Ntilikina, they’ll offer Bender + a 2nd rounder and Mills and Perry will take it.

It’s hard to believe that Korver can be traded for two 2nds and an expiring but we ultimately can’t trade Lee for just an expiring. I suppose he has to prove he’s healthy first, but I’m guessing Lee would want to go to a contender or any playoff team, really.

About Lee’s trade value: it hinges on how the whole league sees this rough patch from the Warriors. I’m very firm in my belief that the Warriors cycle ground to a halt a lot of potential deals because, on average, today’s GMs (at least the ones working for contenders) are way smarter than GMs were in the ’90s and ’00s, and recognized that there was no point in trying to strenghten their rosters just to be punched in the nuts sooner or later by an unstoppable juggernaut.

If, though, the perception has changed and this Warriors iteration looks beatable, there will be many more fringe deals made by wannabe contenders, and that opens up the market for Lee and THJ.

The corpse of Joakim Noah signs with Memphis – brilliant

If Lee was actually healthy, I could see Indiana parting ways with Thaddeus Young (there’s Domantas ready) for a shooting guard. I just think they could do better, like Young, Bodganovic and a first for Beal.

I wonder if the Suns would do Frank for Josh Jackson. That could be interesting.

@28, Rama. Frank/Dot/Mudiay/Hez, Perry’s guys. Add Mills’ guy, TH2, and the pattern of proving you were right at work.

I think I’d rather have Jackson for Frank than Fultz, but I’d prefer to keep Frank and see some steadfast commitment to development.

Frank’s not even the worst regular on the Knicks. Mario is awful and Knox scores about as efficiency while shooting a lot more, never passing and he contains no defensive like substances. We’re collectively too busy bitching about Frank we’re not appreciating how incredibly bad Knox has been.

The Knicks should under no circumstances offer a one year deal to Trier. If he doesn’t accept two years then he can go spend most of this year playing in the g-league. It would make no sense for him to turn down life-changing money this year, anything can happen, he could blow out his knee and then all that money vanishes. Honestly, he should be putting his foot down now for a contract just to protect himself. Two years three million is the deal and maybe go up to four million. If he says no then he can stay in the g-league, risk injury, and then try to get a contract next year.

A one year contract doesn’t help us and gives him the best of both worlds, a chunk of money now and a chance to get paid this summer. You have to make him choose between guaranteed money now or a payday in 7 months. That first payday is the most life-changing and I don’t think he turns it down now. Too much of a gamble just to get paid one year earlier, when in tw0 years he probably signs a long-term deal that is a lot more lucrative than what he could sign this summer and makes up any lost income signing a two-year deal now.

I think they can agree on anything, as long as it meets CBA normal contract standards. So four years should be ok.