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[New York Post] – Thu, 16 May 2024 22:18:00 GMT
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[USA TODAY] – Thu, 16 May 2024 23:23:45 GMT
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[New York Post] – Thu, 16 May 2024 12:20:00 GMT
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85 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2024.05.17)”
Hi guys, are you ready?
I took a day of rest, doing therapies for my typing fingertips and sacrifying scores of beer bottles to the Basketball Gods before game-6…
About Alan’s question of the (yester)day, I’ll keep it short, my answer is “no”.
I wouldn’t undo the OG trade for reasons that I spare you (of course I’ll never forgive Leon for the huge overpay 😉 ).
I’m elated for Kreider’s herculean 3rd period that saved the Rangers after two very bleak ones (and what about Shesty’s point blank save on Staal? Restoring a two goals lead could have been the game for the Hurricanes).
Kudos to the Yankees for an historical feat (it has been 72 years since the Yanks allowed only 1 run* in a 3-game sweep in the regular season, 25 years if you include playoffs).
Minnesota trounced Denver beyond expectations, but in the playoffs only wins and losses matter not the scores.
Game-7 is in Denver and starts 0-0, I still think the Nuggets are slightly favorite (according to Pelton and other analytical pundits role players tend to play better at home).
And finally, I have Nash-In-Brooklyn vibes about Redick rumors in LakersLand but I can be totally wrong.
Let’s Go Knicks!
* And the Twins’ first batter of the series hit a leadoff homer, they went scoreless for 27 full innings after it.
I just want to tell you both good luck. We’re all counting on you.
So I can only assume that I should not be preparing to take a late morning flight to Indy today on Knickerblogger’s dime, right? Because the clock’s ticking, boys.
What do we think of the PER metric? Because if we think it’s a good one, it says that Alec Burks is leading the team in the playoffs with 29.1, while the Brunson Burner comes in at 24.0 and iHart comes in at 18.9.
Mitch comes in at 16.1, Hart comes in at 15.3, and DDV at 14.9. OG at 14.0, Precious at 13.3, and Deuce at 12.5.
If I ever thought that PER was a good metric before now, the eye test is certainly telling me that it’s not the case.
Max loves all New York sports? Who knew?
I never watch hockey but I did last night and it was amazing.
“What do we think of the PER metric?”
PER is a better metric than it is given credit for here. It is (and always has been) as good or better than WS48 or WP48 in correlating with more modern metrics. It has a flaw that rewards high-volume/low-efficiency shooting, but the fact that so many KB posters have considered that flaw particularly “fatal” is an overreaction to the anti-pointzz revolution of the early KB days. Turns out that each metric has equally fatal flaws, especially WS48 which was the gold standard around here for a while.
Top 10 in PER:
(Embiid would be 1 but didn’t qualify)
1. Nikola Jokić • DEN 31.0
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL 29.9
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander • OKC 29.3
4. Luka Dončić • DAL 28.1
5. Anthony Davis • LAL 25.8
6. LeBron James • LAL 23.7
7. Jalen Brunson • NYK 23.4
8. Tyrese Haliburton • IND 23.3
9. Kristaps Porziņģis • BOS 23.2
10. Kawhi Leonard • LAC 23.2
Top 10 in BPM:
1. Nikola Jokić • DEN 13.2
(Embiid would be 2 but didn’t qualify)
2. Luka Dončić • DAL 9.9
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL 9.0
4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander • OKC 9.0
5. Tyrese Haliburton • IND 6.9
6. LeBron James • LAL 6.5
7. Domantas Sabonis • SAC 6.5
8. Jalen Brunson • NYK 5.8
9. Donovan Mitchell • CLE 5.8
10. Kawhi Leonard • LAC 5.5
Top 10 in WS48:
1. Nikola Jokić • DEN .299
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander • OKC .275
(Embiid should be 3 but didn’t qualify)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL .246
4. Kristaps Porziņģis • BOS .226
5. Luka Dončić • DAL .220
6. Rudy Gobert • MIN .216
7. Jimmy Butler • MIA .214
8. Jarrett Allen • CLE .210
9. Anthony Davis • LAL .210
10. Domantas Sabonis • SAC .206
Top 10 in EPM:
(1. Embiid)
1. Shai
2. Luka
3. Giannis
4. Jokic
5. Brunson
6. LeBron
7. PG13
8. Kawhi
9. Spida
10. Hali
But Z-man, what do you think of those Knicks playoff PERs as shown? I always thought that PER was a good metric, too, but those number just don’t seem to reflect what I’ve been seeing on the court.
*numbers
LOL
My guess is that all the metrics are vulnerable to small sample bias. But to your point, Burks is our leader in PER, WS48 and BPM. However, iHart jumps Brunson for the #2 spot, possibly due to rebound/ultra low usage-high efficiency bias. Unless you include Jericho Sims, whose 26 minutes basically causes all three metrics to start smoldering like NOMAD in the original Star Trek.
Yes, I filtered on “Qualified” to get rid of the Sims, Shakes, and DaQuans of the world.
Would any of you use an attorney from the law firm of Sims, Shakes, and DaQuans, LLC?
Nobody uses PER or WS anymore and hasn’t for years. There are several +/- metrics, like EPM, that are considered the best.
Show of hands.
For how many people is this the biggest Knicks game of their lifetime?
Definitely for me.
I was a casual Knicks fan in the 90’s but didn’t really fall in love with the team until the 99 run. And while I guess the stakes were higher for game 7 against The Pacers in the conference finals, that run was so magical and also it was my first real Knicks love, that it was all just fun and new and exciting for me.
But this? I mean…we’re one game away from the Eastern Conference Finals. We haven’t been there in 24 years. This is fucking huge!
It’s all well and good to say it’s all gravy right now because of the injuries this season. But right now. FUCK THAT. Let’s handle our business tonight. The Twolves helped us out a lot. We close tonight, the team gets a rest, we get a longer break so, in theory, less games next round without OG. But we gotta put these kids to bed tonight.
I can’t really focus on my work today at all.
Owen,
I’m a Giants fan too, but my (then strong) attraction for american football weakened after the Ray Rice and Colin Kaepernick “situations” and after unsubscribing my League Pass before the 2017 season I don’t watch it anymore… 🙂
To explain my affinity, in the winter of 1980 my father went on a business trip to New York and for some reasons took me with him (skipping a month of school AND going to New York felt like 10 Christmas in one for 12 years old Max).
Our hosts took us to games at the Garden and in a few days I watched the Knicks beat the Nets (yes, I watched Pearl Monroe play live) and the Rangers beat the Bruins in a close game.
From then on my NY fandom was on, I have “favorite teams” in every sport but I don’t hate the “cousins” (I’m amicable towards Mets, Jets and Islanders, I think the current Brooklyn version of the Nets are “parvenus” while I would have been a fan of them in the ABA).
… And I’m a St.John’s fan thanks to Lou Carnesecca (and Chris Mullin!).
Swifty, I came into the team when Pat Riley did, so nothing will yet be bigger for me than Games 6 and 7 of the 94 Finals. Hoping this goes a lot better than that. And if we should somehow not only beat Indy, but beat [REDACTED], well, then we might have a new contender.
Think I’m gonna have to get some wizard hat pizza for the game tonight. I’m feeling anxious and o eat my feelings.
Yeah, like Alan, i was here for the disappointing end of the 1993-94 season. But later i was able to appreciate what we achieved that season, although we didn’t get the ultimate goal.
Same here. Plus, I still don’t see this team as an actual title contender or one with a realistic shot of making the Finals so I definitely want to win tonight but it’s not as important as a bunch of playoff games from 93-97 or any playoff game against Miami or Indy from the 90s and 2000/2001 since I truly hated those teams.
I go back to Willis Reed walking out of the tunnel and Walt Frazier having one of the greatest finals performances of all time (if not the greatest). 😉
Very cool Max! Your Dad sounds amazing.
Despite having no association with St. John’s at all I absolutely loved Lou Carneseca and his sweaters as a kid. The basketball was great too and very NYC.
Maybe I should make Lou Carnesecca’s Sweater my new handle.
Yeah, I mean I watched the 94 finals for sure and was rooting for The Knicks but I also loved Olajowan, lol. At that age I was really just a fan of NBA basketball in general and didn’t have a team. My brother did live in NYC, so I would root for The Knicks especially when they played The Bulls but it wasn’t until I moved to NYC in 99 and watched that run that I truly became a Knicks fan.
So this one is huge for me.
The thing that worries me on a personal level — Pacers are totally focusing on not playing soft, which is likely to mean beating the absolute piss out of Brunson; while the game is in Indiana, which means they’re likely to get the (non) whistles. Which will make me apoplectic, regardless of result.
That game you remember never happened, Knicks in six!
I’d argue that this is precisely the argument that shows PER’s uselessness. Advanced stats, at least how I see them, are more useful the more they show us things we can’t easily see when simply watching a game or looking at a box score. For all of NBA’s existence, we’ve know that more points at more volume = good, right? So what’s the use of a stat that simply orders players in a ranking based on something everybody already knew was important and can already see just by looking at a box score?
The other stats that were en vogue in different moments for different reasons at least attempted to give us additional information, teach us the importance of efficiency in comparison to just sheer volume, the importance of offensive rebounding, extra possessions, low turnover players, etc.
In my opinion, that’s the reason I tend to ignore PER. in a sea of available stats, it’s the one that tells me the least new information.
Devo was right though. Pacers are not built to be tough. They go that rout I think it favors the team that is built to execute in a dog fight. If we get two of Deuce and Asterix B and Devo to show up I think we’ll have a decent shot. If we get three of them we’ll win. Then I’ll get some Cherry Garcia to eat my feelings.
PER has a high level of stability across different contexts. I’m not sure how helpful that is, given that it’s not a very good metric, but whatever.
No… that’s just what they’ll be expecting us to do.
Game 5 NBA finals 1970…. the game where Willis went down early and somehow Dave Stallworth and Dave De Buschere held Wilt to 22 when all hope seemed lost. Wilt scored 45 in game 6…
Oh yeah, you’re right. I always forget that series ended in 6.
On a side note and getting way ahead of myself. I think my new favorite ending to this magical season would be for us to beat The Mavericks in the Finals and for us to close it out on their home court so Mark Cuban has to watch Jalen Brunson hoist the trophy in his own building.
Then when we use their draft pick, we end up drafting the next late first round diamond in the rough who turns into a superstar and it secures our dominance for the next decade.
I agree that the odds of a Finals appearance, let alone a championship, is unlikely for this squad in its current state. The wishcasting version would have to go something like this:
1. Beat Indy, preferably tonight, so that everyone has more time to rest before Tuesday.
2. KP is still not back for the start of the ECF, if not for the whole series. That negates their biggest problem we’ve had with them. (Also helpful: if Boston winds up rusty after such a long layoff, allowing us to steal Game 1 despite likely being without OG.)
3. OG is back, and back at his usual self, by Game 2, Game 3 at the latest. You put him on whichever of the J’s is cooking, put Hart on the other one, and see if Jrue or Derrick White can slow down the current version of Brunson. (My guess is they cannot, but Porzingis being around the rim would, again, significantly change things.)
4. Whichever team comes out of the West is, if not quite as battered as we are, at least beat up enough that our hustle, our schemes, and the respective offensive/defensive genius of Brunson and OG is enough to overcome whatever Jokic/Luka/Ant/SGA can do against us.
Hey, you never know. Once upon a time, in the week leading up to Super Bowl 42, I kept dwelling on the idea of the Giants’ pass rush beating the crap out of Tom Brady, and…
We have a tendency to short the 2013 team. The game 6 they played in Indiana with their backs against the wall was probably as big as this one.
My opinion of this Knicks team won’t go down if they lose but there’s a lot to gain if they win. If we are the kind of team that takes care of business in a game like this, like the Rangers were last night, then I like where we’re at a lot more.
The Denver series has been so strange, and now it’s going down to the wire even though every game has been a blowout. It’s the antithesis of the Knicks Sixers series.
I was at game 7 of the Pacers-Knicks conference finals in 1995. Will never ever forget the Ewing finger roll bouncing off the back rim and the entire Garden going deathly quiet. Just brutal
Oh yeah that was a big one but they were down 3-2 and that whole series they were behind the 8 ball.
Fan since 88. Biggest game/s for me all 1994.
Game 5 win. Up 3-2 in the series! (despite the White Bronco).
Game 6 loss. In my parallel universe, Starks made that last three pointer, and we are (the) champions. He remains my favorite player.
Starks Game 6 box: 46min (!), 9-18, 5-9 from three, 4-5 FT, 8 AST, 2 STL, 27 PTS
Starks Game 7 (REDACTED, as Alan might say)
I still tear up ….
@Alan,
We’ll reimburse you after you show proof of attendance and after the Knicks have won
Yeah for me the 3 Game 7’s in 1994 were the biggest games in my lifetime. The last truly big game was 2000 Game 7 at Miami. You can also say Games 5 and 6 vs Indiana that same year but nothing feels bigger than a Game 7.
The estimate was ~ $600 all in, right? I’m still down to chip in $60/70 if others feel the same urge. Just for the story of it.
Alas, we appear to have missed our window. Earliest flight I can find now on Expedia doesn’t even get to Indiannapolis until after 7 p.m.
I think we need to save sending somebody across the country on a whim for the finals or for something really, really dumb
We usually don’t start playing until Q2 anyway 😉
But, point taken. Next time.
And maybe the flight should be transatlantic, as for one of our intrepid European comrades.
Game doesn’t start till 8:30 🙂
It starts at 7:30pm central time!
Yeah, EB, but with waiting for the plane to taxi, all the other passengers to get off, get through the airport, out to the curb, in a taxi, and either straight to the arena with a suitcase in my hand or with a stop at whatever hotel y’all are springing for… that’s very tight, if not impossible.
That said…
Because of various StubHub/SeatGeek issues, I didn’t get into the Garden until late in the first quarter on Tuesday. And while they already had the lead by that point, I was there for them holding back multiple Indiana surges, and for them ultimately piling it on in the third and fourth.
“Game doesn’t start till 8:30 🙂”
Right. Which begs the question: What the hell? (It’s literally the only NBA game tonight.)
PER has a lot of obvious, endemic flaws. One of them is that has some rather random features – kludges, seemingly – that are never well explained, such as the notorious “f” factor. People sometimes incorrectly think that Hollinger only gave credit for points and failed to include a cost of inefficiency, which isn’t true. But it is true that the cost of missed FGA is lower than most other models and that PER begins to reward marginal usage at rather low levels of implied TS% — probably too low to pass the smell test of even the biggest high usage stans. Still, this is very different from a model that ignores the cost of missed attempts altogether.
PER is also just a combination of first principles and intuition (similar to win shares), so it doesn’t every try to benefit from information that leaks into boxscore stats from game results. By that I mean the more modern stats like BPM or EPM generate coefficients by regressing against some kind of RAPM in the testing sample. This allows you to go beyond first principles and ask the world how important each statistic is, but of course also comes with new problems such as overfitting. For the uninitiated, note this is separate from stats like EPM/Raptor (but not BPM) that ALSO use actual individual-player RAPM (adjusted plus minus) to calculate their result.
The lack of RAPM sampling to generate coefficients leaves something like PER or Win Shares even weaker on defense than other metrics that either allow some hope of defensive signal leaking into coefficients or directly add an RAPM component.
But you can pretty easily kind back out the estimate the implied coefficients in PER (BPM style) and see that while there are significant differences, they aren’t quite as big as you’d imagine — especially if you focus on OBPM.
Over short samples like a few games, these metrics add very little value at best. The knife-edge volatility is so large relative to people’s much better ability to spot the effect of outliers in small samples (e.g. game 2 he had 3 steals that all just literally fell into his hands while he was yelling at marc davis). i don’t think PER or BPM or literally any advanced metric even improves on the simplest summaries like Bref Game Score if we are talking about a single game or few games, and the volatility of +/- makes versions like RAPM or the old RPM completely unusable.
now that all the teams are using machine learning and player tracking that isn’t publicly available the boxes are going to get even blacker.
it’s so Californians can finish an honest day’s work and still tune in for tip off
They posted the ECF schedule. Game 1 is Tuesday, not Wednesday. And it’s every other day for the whole series.
i will provide a backstop if alan wants to truck to the airport
Even more imperative we win tonight. 3 days rest vs. 1 day rest (with travel) makes a huge difference for our team.
Point of information: Indianapolis is actually on Eastern time.
Tonight Knicks and Rangers fans are gonna party like it’s 1994
Looking for some good omens. Found one—today is Hubert Davis’ birthday.
Today is also the date of Ewing’s game winner in Game 5 vs Indiana.
Good omen, just found five dollars on the corner of Rogers and Maple in Flatbush.
I think the 2013 team had more championship equity than this version of the current team, so I’d give game 6 in Indiana, 2013 version, a slight edge. Still, I absolutely want to make Boston earn it so I’m very nervous and excited for tonight. If anyone will be making the Brooklyn sports bar rounds, let me know!
I don’t ever really look at AIO metrics in the playoffs. The samples are just too small and easily thrown off by things like pt’s random 3 steals example. Take a look at the overall numbers, and to understand their context look at things like the average TS% in the individual series, what a given player’s PPG represented as a share of his team’s total points, etc. Every series should be treated like it’s own mini league year, basically.
Its crazy that Thibs gets genius level tactician credit now that he finally got his rotations right and is on a verge of cashing in an extension; starting Deuce, moving Achiuwa to back up Hart/iHart and playing Burks as winger. There was plenty of evidence that this was the optimal lineup for rebounding, defense, spacing and shooting. Giving Jalen the ball in the half court and forcing switching so that he can hunt and fest on weak defenders is far from groundbreaking brilliant genius level coaching.
Instead, – I would ask why didn’t Thibs go to these rotations since OG went down and why did Jalen have to endure 94 feet defense entire Philadeplia series and the first 4 games of Indiana series? – It’s just plain common sense to most of us that follow this team and know basketball.
Carlisle is screwed. Instead of JB coming of a PnR, its straight iso. They trapped him 28 times last game and JB still put up 44 on 7FTA. What is their material counter move now?
Going into those playoffs, absolutely, that team had more equity. I think the expectation was we would win a title.
But after not closing out Boston in 4 and letting them make it a series. Melo getting hurt and us going down 3-1 to Indiana, I think those aspirations went up in smoke. Obviously it was more important because it was an elimination game but I personally had a sneaking suspicion we were losing that game.
I think this current team is more of an outside shot of winning it all and yet, I somehow believe in them more now than I did in that team going into game 6 of that series.
I’m sorry guys. I’ve been in a work black hole all week and so have t managed to wangle a late work junket to Indy to repeat by game-6-on-the-road heroics from the first round. I nonetheless have total confidence in our guys. LETS GO KNICKS!!
Melon tweren’t Brunson.
Show of hands.
For how many people is this the biggest Knicks game of their lifetime?
Not trying to be pedantic, but today pales in comparison to last week’s game 6 for me. I thought if we lost that one game , game 7 looks iffy at best. I want to win this one badly, but on to game 7 feeling nervous but good. So this is not it.
“It starts at 7:30pm central time!
Point of information: Indianapolis is actually on Eastern time.”
Pags, I was already going to say that, but then I realized that the statement that the game starts at 7:30 p.m. Central is indeed a true statement and deleted the comment prior to posting it.
Don’t understand the assertion that our 2013 team had more title equity. First of all that team was inferior (3.73 SRS to our current team’s 4.36). That’s with the 2014 squad being relatively healthy outside of Amare, while we had a shitload of injuries this year. Our SRS in January was approaching 6, which is probably a fair expectation for our full squad.
There was also a brick wall in our way at the top of the East then, the 66-16 Heatles. Despite their lower SRS, they were probably a more dangerous opponent on balance than the Celtics, especially without KP. The teams at the top of the West were stronger then as well.
In short, I think this team is better than the 2013 team even down Randle.
I came to this country in 1995 when I was 8 years old. Going to the local park, the only sport I could play by myself (no equipment, no friends) was basketball. Being in NY, my classmates quickly educated me about Ewing, Starks etc. I remember being devastated when everyone was suspended in 1997. I remember Gus Johnson calling the 1998 Knicks/Heat series on the radio. I missed Allan’s shot in 1999 but I watched LJ’s on TV. I’ve been a Knicks fan throughout for the past 29 years, even though I’ve moved 5 times in adulthood.
This is the biggest game of my Knicks’ fandom.
Pags, there was a sentiment back on 2013 — not just here, but throughout Knicks fandom/media — that while the Heat were more talented than us, they were also a good matchup for us. We went 3-1 against them in the regular season, Melo tended to play well against LeBron, Chandler had already caused Miami so many problems when he was with the Mavs, etc. No one thought we were a lock to win, but the feeling was we had better than a puncher’s chance if we got to the ECF. Then we ran into Indiana — and, specifically, into the refs abruptly deciding to reward Hibbert for his “verticality” — and we never got to find out how we’d have done in South Beach.
Which isn’t to say that this squad in its current form matches up great with Boston, should we get to the next round.
If we’re looking for precedents, there is a lot of similarity between this series and the 2000 EC Finals where home court held for 5 games before the Pacers broke through at MSG in game 6.
Indianapolis is only on eastern time during the playoffs, during the regular season they are on central standard time. (It makes it confusing for when they play the Cavs and the Bulls).
This team is better than that team, but it’s missing 4 critical rotation players. It’d be like if the 2013 team was missing Tyson, JR, Kidd, and Novak or something.
A little late to contribute to Alan’s journey to game 6 in Indy, but i’d like to say that it can be a good idea for us all to contribute to a trip+ticket+hotel for 1 KBer (or 2, depending on the contributions) to go support the Knicks. Like a reward for being here to a lucky member, being drawn like Mike K did two or three times when he had tickets to spare.
The 2013 Knicks also went 2-0 vs the Spurs, 5-1 against the NBA finalists. I legit thought that team had a chance at winning it all but after the 2 ass whoopings they got at Indiana in Games 3 and 4 reality settled in quickly.
Oh yeah, I remember this because it was one of the weirdest things I’ve ever seen. The NBA seemed to invent this verticality thing spontaneously and it turned Hibbert into prime Mutombo. 2 years later he was completely unplayable and on his way to being out of the league, LOL.
We did match up pretty well with Miami, but I’d argue that with OG we match up as well as anyone against a KP-less Boston… We are missing more players but Randle’s been bad in the playoffs, Mitch probably would be a liability vs. Boston, and Bogie’s spiritual essence has been osmosed into Alberic Bimblybop.
If we were fully healthy, I think this would be our best title shot since 1994.
This team is a bit like that one where if they somehow get to the finals they’re going to get steamrolled and I won’t care.
I *especially* think that now that Alec Burks is performing this well for us (leading in PER, regardless of how much or how little one might think of it), he deserves enough of our respect not to have his name spelled incorrectly on purpose.
But that’s clearly just me. 🙂
I guess I’m not too worked up about this game because I don’t think we have a legit chance at a title this year. This team always surprises – you just can’t count them out, ever – but if they get past Indiana, I don’t see them beating Boston unless KP doesn’t return. And I wouldn’t see them beating either Joker or Minny without Randle.
I wasn’t aware that Indiana has won 10 straight home games.
They’re like a different team at home, especially Hali. Not gonna be easy to grab game 6, but then again we have the best player by far and that always helps.
Jason Kidd was a dead man walking by the time we played Indiana in 2013. You could have put in a fan from the stands and gotten better results. Ancient waiver wire Kenyon Martin was one of the better players on that team.
The 2013 Knicks were fake contenders. This team would have wiped the floor with that team.
Apologies if this has already been posted but:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/40157348/go-ny-go-new-york-knicks-anthem-inspiring-playoffs-madison-square-garden-jesse-itzler
I hadn’t seen that, yet, Rohan. Thanks for sharing!
Also, can we make sure that either DaQuan or Jacob are served a chipotle veggie burrito with double beans and double fajita veggies before tonight’s game?
Do we know when game 2 of the ECF will be?
Respect. Burp
GoldClub, here’s the breakdown: https://x.com/IanBegley/status/1791303673521295706
Lull before the storm, or is the site down at a pivotal time for you all?
Since I can post, but apparently nobody else can, let me sum up what would have otherwise been said:
“If the Pacers jump out to an early 4 point league the series is over.” -Pags
“Burks needs to play 48 minutes tonight.” -Hubert
“The Celtics are vulnerable.” -Brian
“Let’s play 7!” -Donnie
“And that, as much as anything, led to
My drinking problem.” -Strat
LOL
Thibs on the sidelines through the years.
https://x.com/sny_knicks/status/1791568060102345006