Knicks Morning News (2024.03.21)

I moved my post to yesterday’s thread so as not to get this one off to a negative start…have a great day everyone!

Just don’t engage, says I.

Meanwhile, porting this over from when I was up in the middle of the night for the end of the last thread, an excerpt from Macri’s latest mailbag, when asked about the impact of whatever OG’s new contract will be on other moves like retaining iHart and/or Precious:

Best guess: they’d love to come out of this summer with both Anunoby and I-Hart, but still ducking the first apron (and don’t rule out them dealing away one or both first round picks for future draft assets if it means ducking the apron). I think they can get OG (and I-Hart) to agree to a number that gets them in just under the line.

More likely, I imagine they hope to use one or both of those picks to trade for a star, which would in turn lessen the blow of being a first apron team, since the primary apron restrictions hamper the ability to pull off big trades, and in this scenario, they’d only be above the first apron to begin with because they already made their big trade.

I don’t see how they can both trade for a star and stay below the second apron unless there is considerable salary going out…

and don’t rule out them dealing away one or both first round picks for future draft assets if it means ducking the apron

We’ve detailed the problems with this line of thinking many times, but a new one is the fact that this team is close enough to contention where two impactful draft picks could help almost as much as a star.

Let’s just say, for instance, we manage to pull a Jacquez Jr type player with the Dallas pick, and a quality backup point guard with the other. That’s an entirely plausible outcome, and the net effect of doing that could be greater than acquiring a star at a price that includes several of our core players like Mitch, Donte, or even Randle.

Not to mention we are talking about the first apron here, whose limitations are relatively benign. The biggest impact is matching 110% of salaries in a trade instead of 125%.

The list of players we could have right now if we’d just made our bloody picks is incredible. If Jalen Johnson & Jalen Williams were on this team, no one would even want a star bc we’d be in the highest tier of contenders already.

The Jalen Johnson one is maddening, agreed. With Jalen Williams, I can’t remember if it was a situation where we needed to trade away that draft pick in addition to Burks, Kemba, and Noel in order to have the cap space for Brunson and iHart, or if we just needed to unload those salaries to do it, and flipped the Williams pick because the FO mistakenly believed the three heavily protected firsts would have more value than whoever we took in that spot.

And if we make a star trade, I would argue that making at least one or two picks in this draft becomes even more important, because we’ll have a top-heavy roster that will desperately need contributors on their rookie contracts. Plus, my guess is there’s a better than even chance that any team engaging with us on such a deal would insist on DiVincenzo being part of it. Which, again, would increase the necessity of bringing in more role players, preferably on the cheap end. And while the Rose FO has a mixed drafting record overall, it has tended to well at identifying useful role players.

At the end of the day, this team is much closer to being a finished product at this stage of the hybrid rebuild than it was last year. I am guessing that the FO will ultimately consider how things play out in the playoffs before determining a path forward.

The “absolutes” are:
-Brunson will be a Knick for life (i.e forseeable future)
-OG will be extended for a pretty penny
-They will do everything possible to keep iHart in the fold

Beyond that, it is likely that none of Julius, Mitch, JHart, or DDV are going anywhere any time soon. But can a trade involving any of them be totally ruled out? I’m less sure about them than I am about the ones above, but a lot might depend on how these playoffs go and on who becomes available.

Bogey, Deuce, and draft picks ain’t getting a star trade done. At minimum, Mitch would need to be added, both to help with salary matching and to make the other team feel like they’re getting something. More likely, though, would be some combo of Julius and DDV. Heck, maybe it would be all of Julius, Mitch, and DDV, and Bogey would either still be here, or we simply won’t pick up the team option if the offseason tea leaves suggest he wouldn’t be helpful for this plan.

I think Josh Hart is the most likely of the non-Brunson/OG guys to stay, because at that salary, I think he has more value to a team with this coach than he would in many other situations around the NBA. (On the other hand, if you were to flip his salary with DDV’s, I think every team in the league would be happy to acquire either of them. It’s funny how this all worked out.)

Also, I don’t love that we’re already talking about breaking up this team before we see what a healthy-ish version of it can do in the playoffs. But we’re coming off of a few days off, and better this than a repeat of… you know.

Also, I don’t love that we’re already talking about breaking up this team before we see what a healthy-ish version of it can do in the playoffs.

One wonders how much this nebulous “pursuit of a star” is getting in the way of making this the best team it could be. Adding two first round picks to this core this summer should be a no brainer.

One wonders how much this nebulous “pursuit of a star” is getting in the way of making this the best team it could be.

The answer is “completely.” It caused the OG overpay, and prevented the value-and-talent-accretive DJM acquisition at the deadline.

(By the way, since the meta simply won’t go away — virtually everything I say on Knickerblogger is either an established fact — TT’s playoff record — or a completely mainstream basketball opinion — “BB is a better basketball player than PA.” Why these mainstream opinions cause such a ruckus is truly incomprehensible (*) , and certainly not a me issue.)

(*) In the analytical sense. The ruckus is entirely comprehensible in terms of people defending their team and its players/management because it’s their team/players/management. That’s just fandom, which while completely defensible and admirable, should be clearly seen for what it is.

One wonders how much this nebulous “pursuit of a star” is getting in the way of making this the best team it could be. Adding two first round picks to this core should be a no brainer. Instead we might end with a star on a team that is full of holes and not as good.

Exactly. But I think the FO should realise this. Everything has changed in the last few months. First, we pretty much now know we have that star. Second, the obvious position to upgrade/insert a star–shooting guard–is no longer obvious with RJ gone and DDV emerging. Third, re-signing OG to star-like $ is an even bigger no-brainer. Fourth, the baseline status quo has moved to a low 50 win team assuming good health, making the risk reward in favour of adding a star that much harder to satisfy. Who would we be willing to sacrifice our depth/draft picks for who might be available–Giannis, Booker? That’s the extent of my list. And if they are not readily available by draft day, you make the damn picks!

We know that the last few years were planned with a star trade in mind. But do we know for a fact that this is still the plan? My guess is that unless a start that fits them like a glove becomes available, they will not break up a team that has so much potential as currently configured. And – as we discussed a bunch – it is really hard to find a star that fits them and that significantly improves the team. Unless guys like Booker or Giannis unlikely become available, I just don’t see a star trade that meets the criteria. I don’t think Mitchell is that guy – even for the FO. Brunson’s leap changed calculations.

So I think there is a realistic scenario in which they build around this team, and frankly I don’t hate that at all. Maybe they look to bring players like OG – higher synergistic non-stars who are elite at a few things (I keep dreaming of Herb Jones, but it’s a pipe dream).

The other scenario I see is that they really lose faith in Randle – because his injury might make it difficult once again to test whether his playoff yips are truly a thing – and try to upgrade there with a non-top-15 star. So a Markkaken or even a KAT. I don’t love that because of the cost, and think there might be better ways to improve the team (though the spacing that an elite shooting 4 would provide is tantalizing).

Edit: I see BernieErnie made basically the same points just before me.

Edit2: Of course, the perfect trade for building around the current team with non-superstars is Mikal.

File this in the category of “why can’t the Knicks run a modern offense like the Warriors”:

https://x.com/JADubin5/status/1770467157932966331

Friends: My Mom passed away yesterday at the age of 89, three days shy of her 66th wedding anniversary with my Dad. She was indeed a very sweet, kind, and loving woman.

So should we keep the same lineup we used against GS or do we bench Deuce to matchup with Aaron Gordon?

The big lineup with Precious can’t score for shit, but Gordon is going to go Trayce Jackson-Davis against Hart if he defends him

And if they are not readily available by draft day, you make the damn picks!

That’s the key. We’re at the point where the immediate cost of not adding support via the draft is so high it can’t be ignored.

Of course we shouldn’t assume this is going to happen just bc Macri said “don’t rule it out.” I just wish we could definitively rule out something stupid like “front office won’t use draft picks to support contender it built.”

If we make those picks, then maybe finally we can. The draft is Leon’s “final boss”, so to speak. There’s a part of me that’s looking forward to seeing what happens in the draft as much as the playoffs.

One wonders how much this nebulous “pursuit of a star” is getting in the way of making this the best team it could be. Adding two first round picks to this core this summer should be a no brainer.

Precisely.

Current management has mostly well, yet far from perfectly, maneuvered this team from a laughing stock , 20 win team in a short time to a low 50 win ( with average health) team with all of its draft choices with a few extras.

The core is young enough to have a good 5 plus year run and they have I believe 10 first round picks in the next 7 years. They don’t have any need to force a move. The building will be packed, they should get at least 2 rounds of playoff receipts for the forseeable future and taking enough bites out of the draft apple, they might run into a top player via the 20 ish pick. No need to do anything rash.

Rose HAS shown he is able to make a (what he considers) a reasonable price for a player and stick to it (even if he really wants him , like Donavan Mitchell) and has a good eye for value (I Hart, DDV, J Hart Brunson).

They are really in a surburb spot moving forward.

I thought this was interesting:

@JADubin5
·
22h
Watch the Knicks run Jalen Brunson through a Steph-like maze of on- and off-ball screens here.

Off-ball screens per 100 poss:
Pre-Randle/OG injuries: 7.1
Since injuries: 23.4!!!

Off-ball involvement has more than tripled as opps pressure his P&R/Isos.

edit: I see this was already posted

my condolences to both you and your dad, Doogie.

My condolences as well, Doogie. I lost my dad a long time ago. At any age, it’s awful.

Doogie, my condolences to your family, I hope the Knicks can bring you a bit of joy in the next few months.

My condolences, Doogie.

Friends: My Mom passed away yesterday at the age of 89, three days shy of her 66th wedding anniversary with my Dad. She was indeed a very sweet, kind, and loving woman.

Condolences.

89 is a sweet run. God bless. Having experienced this with both my parents who died at 89 , 9 years apart, I always recommend going out of one’s way to spend as much time as you can with them while your parents are still here. You have no conception how much you will miss them when they are gone.

I hate to be predictably dour but I don’t think the content Dubin posted matched the enthusiasm of his caption. Seemed like a pretty basic series of screens by Hart & iHart.

Doogie, I am sorry for your loss, my friend. Be well.

Who would we be willing to sacrifice our depth/draft picks for who might be available–Giannis, Booker? That’s the extent of my list.

The thing about the a NBA is you never know who is going to become available and when. The Day before Durant’s big toe tickled the three point line in the playoffs, who would have predicted Harden, Durant and Kyrie would all be move tout de suite?

The Knicks are in optimal position to move in virtually any direction. Or… sit with a pat hand and add incrementally through the draft.

Condolences, Doogie. My mom passed about a year ago and her final years were very difficult. I hope you and your dad find peace and solace during your time of grief.

My condolences, Doogie.

Sorry to hear it DDB but sounds like she had a good run.

Do we even need a star? Our team, fully healthy, is pretty good. Brunson is a star. I think Randle is too, although of a lower order. IHart and OG are kind of in that almost-star sweet spot. DDV might be too which is crazy. Deuce looks like an average offensive player all of a sudden with great defense. Mitch is Mitch. Hart is Hart.

It’s a fair amount of talent.

So should we keep the same lineup we used against GS or do we bench Deuce to matchup with Aaron Gordon?

The big lineup with Precious can’t score for shit, but Gordon is going to go Trayce Jackson-Davis against Hart if he defends him

It would be funny (in a cruel, ironic way) if this is the day Thibs gives Bojan a chance. Chasing Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr around the court in high altitude with Jokic throwing dimes all around him is probably his worst nightmare.

There are no good options for Thibs tonight. We banked 3 wins already, and the third one was in large part due to a coaching masterpiece. I’d say he’s earned the right to do whatever he wants so long as he gives the players a rest if we’re down big in the second half.

No loss is guaranteed, of course, but this is the least winnable game on the NBA schedule. Throw in the revenge factor (we humiliated Denver in the exact same situation, i.e. it was the last game of a long road trip and they’d already banked enough wins to make it successful), and I’m pretty confident we won’t be up late tonight. But I would absolutely welcome the ridicule tomorrow if my pessimism turns out to be unfounded.

The thing is, this team just continually surprises us. Pretty sure we’re not beating the Nuggets, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if we take them down to the wire.

Do we even need a star?

We just need trades like the ones the Celtics have been making.

I’m very sorry Doogie, my condolences to you, your dad and your family. Be well friend.

Condolences, Doogie, and sorry for your loss. Be well.

A quick aside to the Razor Haters: the fact we’re dealing with the sudden emergence of “aprons” at the only moment this century when we have a lot of players we want to re-sign is Dolan’s Razor. Two years ago we’d be happily bringing back all these guys and maybe even giving Precious $8MM just to use as matching salary in a trade. Now we might have to give away draft picks to maintain flexibility. Sigh.

Sorry for your loss, Doogie. I am spelling Alec Burks correctly all day today in your honor.

don’t rule out them dealing away one or both first round picks for future draft assets if it means ducking the apron

First I’d like to say that it’s nice to have a front office that leaves no stone unturned, including the option of prioritizing signings/re-signings over immediate draft picks that would please the fan base.

That said, it’s easy to argue Rose didn’t make the correct move at the right time (you could also argue Jalen Williams is cherry picking, but you get the idea.)

But I don’t think Rose “hates the draft” or anything like that. I think he weighs his options depending on where he think the team currently sits. After this playoff run, making our picks might be the best option, who knows?

Irregardless (sorry Doogie), I have faith that Rose & Co. will continue to improve this team, even if it’s incrementally.

Condolences, Doogie. So sorry to hear that.

Alec Burks!

Lauri Markkanen!

Doggie…condolences to you and your family. Sorry to hear that.

First I’d like to say that it’s nice to have a front office that leaves no stone unturned, including the option of prioritizing signings/re-signings over immediate draft picks that would please the fan base

If we have to trade a draft pick to re-sign Isaiah Hartenstein, that’s something entirely different. What Macri described is trading draft picks to prioritize a nebulous future transaction that is not currently in the works and may never come to pass. That particular stone seems better left unturned.

It’s really hard losing your mom. My condolences to you DDB.

Sorry for your loss Doogie

Alec Burks, indeed.

This offseason, barring a star trade, we have a couple decisions to make for our bench. We know Deuce & Hart will be here but who fills the other 2 bench spots?

The options at C:
* iHart/Mitch
* Achiuwa
* Draft pick
* MLE player

Other bench spot:
* Burks
* Bojan
* Achiuwa
* Draft pick
* MLE player

You can’t rely on Bojan or Burks due to their age regardless of how they play the rest of this season.

Precious is okay at C but his shooting has been catastrophic at the 4 next to Hart.

A MLE player is either a tax MLE worth a bit over $5 or a non-tax MLE worth ~$13M, but I’ll just assume it’ll be $5M which doesn’t go very far. Even that could make it difficult to maneuver the 2nd apron.

So that leaves us with the option of making a draft pick. That pick may play behind Bojan or a vet MLE player initially, but we need at least 1 to secure the back end of the roster and probably a 2nd to stop Thibs from killing everyone with minutes.

The alternative would be packaging Bojan & a pick for a better/younger player.

So a Markkaken or even a KAT

I keep wondering if Markkanen is actually the move.

He makes just $18MM next year so he’s perfect for our apron concerns. He seems to be ahead of Utah’s timeline. And I imagine Ainge would be thrilled to have unprotected Knicks picks up to 7 years in the future.

You could do it with Randle and a lot of future picks, and then let Utah auction off Randle similar to how Portland worked Jrue. The trade would actually save us ~$9MM in salary, which would help us resign everyone. We could probably keep a pick in this draft, as Utah has two already and would likely rather have our future ones.

I would hate to cast off Randle but Lauri will be 27 next year and fits like a glove while Randle will be 30 and unless a minor miracle happens he’ll still have unanswered playoff questions surrounding him.

Lauri being so cheap allows us to still use Bojan’s expiring to pick up a quality third guard, assuming Ainge hasn’t robbed the store blind. You could get Brogdon, for instance, or perhaps scour the league for someone even better.

Nice breakdown, EB.

One future need will probably be a legit backup ballhandler/passer. I have a lot of faith in Deuce, but probably not as a backup point guard. In fact, getting a PG through the draft who can come in and produce immediately for a playoff team seems like an impossible ask. I think it’s more likely we pick one up off the scrap heap next year… possibly a Lowry type.

Assuming Thibs wants an 8-man (possibly 9) rotation, and that we resign OG and iHart, that gives us:

1. Brunson 2. Randle 3. OG 4. Donte 5. Hartenstein 6. Hart 7. Deuce… which leaves two spots left: 8. backup PG/ball-handler and 9. shooting big.

Not sure I see a lot of draftees like that in our range… maybe Devin Carter as a PG and Ulrich Chomache as a PF. Of course, we might just roll with Bogey as the backup PF and Burks (or a suitable replacement) as the backup ballhandler. Not to mention a “star” trade would change all of these variables.

Additionally, we could just go BPA in the draft and grow some guys as future rotation players, although that doesn’t seem like a very Rose thing to do.

Thank you so much, pepper, Owen, Max, marechal, KFNINJ, KBA, Hubert, ess-dog, Early Bird, E, DRed, darules, Bo Nateman, BernieErnie, and Alan…….I truly hope that I haven’t forgotten to mention anyone, and thank you all for your kind thoughts.

Go, Knicks.

Doogie, my condolences to you and your family. I lost my dad a little over a year ago, and it’s like Alan said… there’s no age when it hurts less. I hope time will let you learn to live with the loss. What i do is try to remember good times i had with my dad, and it gives me some comfort.

I honestly can’t tell if this is a reasonable or insane offer for Markkanen:

Julius Randle
2027 1st (unprotected)
2029 1st (unprotected)
2030 pick swap (unprotected)
2031 1st (unprotected)

It feels like an insane overpay. And yet I think I’d be very happy.

We’d still be able to make/trade picks every year while Brunson is in his prime. We’d still be able to package Bojan for another upgrade. And we’d get to hear Clyde say Markaten for years.

I keep wondering if Markkanen is actually the move.

I am a Lauri stan and it is clear he is a better shooter, more efficient and spaces the floor much better than Randle.

However, his rebounding, passing and defense are considerably worse.

I wouldn’t expend a lot of additional draft capital for that upgrade and Ainge isn’t gifting him to us unless we hire Kevin McHale as coach.

hi doogie, I’m sorry to hear of your loss…

I wish you and your dad the very best during a really tough time…

However, his rebounding, passing and defense are considerably worse.

His rebounding numbers since joining Utah don’t actually seem that much worse, but agreed on the passing. Feels like Lauri would leave Brunson doing all the shot creation. I’d prefer Lauri still.

I think Thibs would be the problem, he loves his burly PFs and iso-ball.

I honestly can’t tell if this is a reasonable or insane offer for Markkanen:

Julius Randle
2027 1st (unprotected)
2029 1st (unprotected)
2030 pick swap (unprotected)
2031 1st (unprotected)

I’m not trading an all star plus 4 unprotected picks for anyone not named Shai or wemby, and I don’t think they are coming to market any time soon.

Hi Doogie,

I’m sorry for your loss. I lost my dad last year. Losing a parent sucks, no matter what they’re age.

@doogie, sorry for your loss. Wish I could say that things get easier over time, but the truth is — you’ll just get more used to it.

There’s never a good time to go but 89 years sounds like life well lived.

Here’s a quote from one of my favorite movies, Dreams:

Man: Is there a festival today?
Old Man: No, that’s a funeral. You seem to find that odd, but a funeral is actually a joyous occasion. It’s good to live well and work hard and then be congratulated on a job well done. We have no temple or priest, so all the villagers gather and carry the deceased to the cemetery on the hill. Of course, it’s different if a child or a young person dies. You can’t really call that auspicious. But fortunately the people here lead a natural way of life and most die in the order in which they were born. The lady being buried today died peacefully at the age of 99. In fact I must go now and join the procession. Please excuse me. To tell you the truth she was my first love. But she broke my hearty and married another guy.

That’s the conundrum with Markkaken. The cost is very unlike to justify the potentially small upgrade over Randle.

Markkanen is a really nice player but (of course) it all comes down to dealing with Ainge, who is a huge pain in the ass and might want to take him to the trade deadline or something

The good news is that the consensus here seems to be that we are dealing with the “last” piece which puts on a lot of pressure because it has to work yet means that we have the luxury of overpaying for it.

i like how you started your post with the word: Friends doogie…

over the years I’ve lost touch with almost all the Friends I had gathered along the way…

down to 3 now, plus kids and mom…

and then there is KB, and the many of you whom I feel very familiar with, people whom I enjoy speaking with and look forward to hearing from…

Friends also, for sure…

it’s nice to know there are people whom care…also good to know you have a friend close by to help you along doogie…

the end of life is such scary stuff, not so much for myself, but mostly for those whom I care for…

it’s amazing considering just how different we all are, that we’ve all found a way to fit in here at KB…together…

So sorry Doogie. Sounds like she lived a long, fulfilling life.

I actually do think we’ll make at least one pick. We need the cheap talent infusion and have clear needs that can potentially be addressed e.g. a bona fide back up point guard. I’d keep my eyes on Tyler Kolek, he fits the profile of guys the Rose regime has generally targeted–analytically friendly, should be able to contribute immediately, good shooter.

I also don’t think we’re dead set on making a star addition. Trades like the Detroit trade, results aside, show Rose and co. are willing to spend some future equity building on this core. I think they just…want to assemble the best team possible, and will continue to try to do so whether it’s with another star or with some more singles and doubles. Isn’t it nice to have a normal front office?

I’m intrigued by the Randle/Markkanen swap idea, though losing Randle would be sad. However dealing with Ainge is just such a nightmare I’d short the possibility.

I still think we’ll be having the next round of the Donovan Mitchell Debate.

Well well well, take a look at Kevin O’Connor’s Tyler Kolek comp: https://nbadraft.theringer.com/

Sincere condolences DDB. She had a nice run at 89. May she rest in peace.

Now. Losing Julius Randle and four unprotected picks for Markkanen? How serious is that? How can one even entertain such a ‘thought’? This is not adult talk; this is kids video games talk. It is mindboggling and confirms a lot.

I still think we’ll be having the next round of the Donovan Mitchell Debate.

which I hope we do simply because it means Cleveland had another post season to forget.

My condolences, Doogie.

I think we’re making 2 picks but I think what will happen is Rose will do one of his patented trade back to pick up another pick in the draft or a future pick moves. And we’ll do a late first round pick and second round pick. People will be mad.

But I think the must trade for a star imperative is still there but maybe not as strong as it was or their in wait and see mode. I think Randle being hurt has muddled this up a lot, unfortunately, and I said this the other day but I could see him now being the focal point of a big trade because of this unless he just goes gangbusters in the playoffs, which seems unlikely since he needs surgery after the season ends.

But I think Leon is also open to NOT making a star trade and I think he will start making some picks to fill out the bench and refill the pipeline for young future talent. He’s actually put us in a great spot where we could add a few young players to the end of the roster and spend a couple of seasons developing them before putting them in the rotation.

I think we’re making 2 picks but I think what will happen is Rose will do one of his patented trade back to pick up another pick in the draft or a future pick moves. And we’ll do a late first round pick and second round pick. People will be mad.

No one will be mad if the value is clearly good. If it’s ambiguous, there will be some debate.

If it’s pants-on-head-what-the-fuck-are-you-doing stupid like 2021, then yeah, people will be mad.

The good news is that the consensus here seems to be that we are dealing with the “last” piece which puts on a lot of pressure because it has to work yet means that we have the luxury of overpaying for it.

I’m not so sure.

The reason Markkanen stands out as someone I would overpay is bc he makes $18mm next year.

Overpaying for Markkanen at that salary lets us:

1. Upgrade Randle
2. Re-sign OG & iHart plus sign two first round picks without going over the apron
3. Retain Mitch
4. Trade Bojan & and a pick for another important piece

Between the two picks, keeping both Mitch & iHart, and getting someone good for Bojan, that’s four players added/maintained while upgrading one position.

It’s too much for Markannen but it’s fair value for all that.

If you trade for someone already on a max contract, you don’t get any of that.

They are not trading Randle AND picks for Markkanen. You guys forget how good was Randle before his injury.

I totally missed that James Harden tried to block Kahwi’s corner 3-pt attempt he had just assisted.

I totally missed that James Harden tried to block Kahwi’s corner 3-pt attempt he had just assisted.

A Clippers fan friend saw the clip and shrugged it off as Harden being “goofy.”

Doogie: condolences, so sorry to hear about your mother.

I have to think that if he falls to us, Rose is going to jump all over McCuellar. He’s the exact type of player the Rose admin seems to like: blue chip program, big + team/culture/Thibs guy, and a plug-and-play guard/forward who can credibly play 1 – 3. I wouldn’t be mad, though he’s probably not my first choice. I need to look at more tape (haven’t been paying attention to the draft this year since the Knicks are so good!)

Condolences, Doogie.

In respect I will avoid involving myself in the discussions about the big guy on the Jazz as it’s too easy to incorrectly spell his name…

I totally missed that James Harden tried to block Kahwi’s corner 3-pt attempt he had just assisted.

This was one of the wildest things I have ever seen in the NBA. It was a good closeout!

Good to see Julius back at it with Josh and Jalen.

It’s too much for Markannen but it’s fair value for all that.

You know what they say about the dice table,” You can’t take 2 bets with a negative expectation and end up with a positive expectation.”

There is no convoluted way to make Lauri for Randle and 4 unprotected picks (even if you get a lesser one back) fair value.

Thank you, walker, TNFH, Rough, Raven, KBPR, geo, EBKB, cyber, and Brian, et al.

NBA is shutting down the G-League Ignite team after this season. A good idea in theory, but between the introduction of NIL money for college players, and the fact that most of the Ignite prospects have been iffy so far in the NBA, it doesn’t seem to make sense anymore.

probability and stats crush me – but is this:

In a classic martingale betting style, gamblers increase bets after each loss in hopes that an eventual win will recover all previous losses.

this:

You can’t take 2 bets with a negative expectation and end up with a positive expectation.

i almost failed probability & stats for the second time when i had to take it again during summer school, way back in ’84…

that’s not easy to do…it’s about the only thing you have to worry about at the time…not much military stuff…go to school for that one class, go to the fieldhouse and work out, and then catch a tan up on pebble beach afterwards…i remember hearing van halen a lot up on the rooftop there…

about the only thing i think that stuck with me from getting the opportunity to take the course twice was this thing where i can more easily extrapolate and round numbers and guess at percentages of stuff…

actually that is kind of useful stuff…gambling feels way esoteric though…or should i say: gambling successfully seems like a really out there, time consuming, skill…

I still can’t wrap my head around what a catastrophe this Shohei Ohtani mess could potentially be for MLB. Feels like the tip of the spear for an impending sports gambling apocalypse, now that all the leagues are not only okay with gambling, but are partnering up with gambling sites.

i thought it was just the translator/friend who was tied up in the betting aspect…

has something come out linking shohei more than paying off the translator/friend debts through his account?

is there something now linking shohei himself to betting on stuff…

In college I had a friend try to convince me that he could basically clean out the house if he played blackjack and used a 2X martingale betting strategy.

At first I tried laying out the statistical case for why it’s really not that rare to lose enough consecutive times to be wiped out as the bettor even in a 50/50ish game like blackjack, but when that failed I had much more success just telling him if this was really a way to beat the house someone would’ve figured it out before him.

As a lawyer and obviously big sports fan, the Ohtani story is like crack to me. The range of outcomes is quite wide.

If he was betting himself…oh dear.

Even if all he did was pay off the illegal gambling debts of his friend, an audacious federal prosecutor could absolutely pursue a conspiracy charge. My guess is in this scenario he’s just an unindicted co-conspirator though.

One thing is for sure, I don’t buy the “theft” story one bit, and not just because they frantically switched to that after going with the previous story initially.

The problem with a martingale strategy is that it only works if you have unlimited money. And it doesn’t affect the house edge. As such, you’re mathematically guaranteed to lose your bankroll in the long run. Hope your friend made some money in the short run though!

Lauri is better than a fully healthy Randle and his age should give us a couple more shots at a title.

Whether we should make that trade for Lauri depends way too much on the playoffs to say. How far we go, how well Randle plays, and what other teams crap out are too important in evaluating a trade like that to have a good answer. But we can perhaps make conditional statements about what outcomes would lead us to make or not make that trade.

For instance, if Randle sucks and we lose game 7 of the finals, then absolutely give me the Lauri for Randle trade. If Randle plays well but we lose in round 1, no way should we go all-in. We can draw thresholds for when to or not to make the trade between those 2 endpoints.

In college I had a friend try to convince me that he could basically clean out the house if he played blackjack and used a 2X martingale betting strategy.

Of course, the house has a table limit maximum bet they will accept. Hence, flush the ‘double the bet’ strategy flushes down the toilet.

In 8 hours I can teach anyone to count and beat blackjack for short money, but any time you show any skill and bet green chips or more, out the door you go, or in NJ where they must deal to you they shuffle.

I’m very sorry for your loss Doogie.

If we do an upgrade trade, imo it’s better than even money it includes Bojan, Mitch, and a boatload of picks. Whether it also includes Deuce or one of the Villanova boys depends on who it is, but I think all the Villanova boys are protected politically unless they are OK to go themselves.

I think the #1 target is Mikal Bridges and the Nets will consider it if the haul of picks is large enough. MB wants to be a Knick. He just can say it too out loud. His desire will part of the equation.

In college I had a friend try to convince me that he could basically clean out the house if he played blackjack and used a 2X martingale betting strategy.

I tried that at my Catholic grade school charity bazar playing Acey Deucey. I was probably about 10 years old.

1. My attempt to win money destined for charity means my Catholic education sucked.

2. Betting against God and Brother Hugh was a bad idea. Even if I won, Brother Hugh would have held it against me and eventually kicked my ass for something trivial.

that was funny strat…really funny…

The problem with a martingale strategy is that it only works if you have unlimited money. And it doesn’t affect the house edge. As such, you’re mathematically guaranteed to lose your bankroll in the long run. Hope your friend made some money in the short run though!

wake up silky you can’t run your halting program here in cantor’s paradise – the one point in spacetime where it is continuously proven that finite beings can in fact unceasingly double down without a positive expectation

Condolences, Doogie. Wishing you all the best during this difficult time.

very sorry to read that, doogie. best wishes.

he one point in spacetime where it is continuously proven that finite beings can in fact unceasingly double down without a positive expectation

are you trying to start some shit milo, if so – bring it on…

you know what, on second thought, i’m a bit tired, think i’ll take a nap…maybe later, i won’t forget though…

cantor’s paradise – ha…

I think the #1 target is Mikal Bridges and the Nets will consider it if the haul of picks is large enough. MB wants to be a Knick. He just can say it too out loud. His desire will part of the equation.

If the nets decide they must trade Bridges, the ONLY place he is going is to Houston to get their picks back so they can do a proper tank. They aren’t trading him to Ny for 4= 20 ish picks. Bridges would actually be a big get for the Rockets.

And don’t forget that Bridges is having a horrible year. BK probably won’t want to trade him at his low-value point, but if they do, we definitely shouldn’t overpay.

I’m wondering if all of the injuries might play out in a way that advantages the Knicks going into the playoffs, in the sense that if everyone is back with only 7 or 8 games left in the regular season, and we avoid the play-in and have some time to practice prior to the playoffs, maybe we’ll be harder to game-plan for.

If you’re interested in a true gambling story you should read the book “Gambler”. He also explains Phil Mickelson’s gambling at the end, because he bet for him. 52% wins at -110 to break even in gambling. If you can somehow hit 60% you’ll be rich. Very few people can approach that. Although AI may help if employed correctly. The problem is the books will can you, which I think is complete horse shit since they make millions a day and are licensed. I could understand individual bet limits but banning people for winning should be disallowed as part of getting a license.

I still can’t wrap my head around what a catastrophe this Shohei Ohtani mess could potentially be for MLB. Feels like the tip of the spear for an impending sports gambling apocalypse, now that all the leagues are not only okay with gambling, but are partnering up with gambling sites.

I’m with you, it does look like the tip of the iceberg for so many reasons.

For Ohtani (and the Dodgers) I don’t know how you can expect this to lead to no consequences whatsoever. The theft story makes no sense, especially considering the other information that came out before. I think it’s at least likely that this leads to Ohtani in some way. I strongly recommend Craig Calcaterra’s breakdown of the situation:

https://cupofcoffee.beehiiv.com/p/cup-coffee-extra-breaking-shohei-ohtaniippei-mizuhara-story

But for sports, it’s so obvious that there will be more and more problems. From players betting on sports (check out what has happened in the Premier League) to the broader social consequences. Players are already fed up with fans that reach out on social media to complain that their performance lost them money. Bickerstaff, for all the grief we give him, was pretty on point yesterday talking about the threats he’s been getting. It’s a shit show, and the only reason this is even an issue is the league’s greed – they should never be associated with gambling, and now you can place freaking bets on League Pass.

Sincere condolences to you, Doogie. My Mom has worsening Alzheimer’s and is slipping away from me by the day, so I empathize.

Legalization of gambling, poker really, and marijuana were things I was for for a long time. Hasn’t worked out as expected. I was in a hotel the other day and someone was smoking nearby. It was unendurable. It’s also way too potent. Dont smoke but have several friends who have had terrible episodes. And the sports gambling I envisioned as legal was more of a mom and pop sort of thing – not the hyper capitalistic way hung we have now.

We will see how it all turns out.

I still can’t wrap my head around what a catastrophe this Shohei Ohtani mess could potentially be for MLB.

It seems like the Dodgers angered some sort of baseball Gods, because first Yoshinobu Yamamoto stunk out the joint in his MLB debut and then this Ohtani thing happened.

Gee, it’d sure be a shame if those FA signings blew up in the stupid Dodgers’ faces.

Here in LA you don’t really notice that pot is legal as much. We had a wink-wink medical cannabis system here for a long time, and people just sort of got used to that culturally, and so my experience is that I don’t get engulfed by weed smoke everywhere I go. People are still at least somewhat discreet.

When I was in NYC recently, I couldn’t believe how much the Bowery area smelled like I was in Cheech’s car from Up In Smoke. I’m a longtime cannabis user myself and even I was like DAMN

good read marechal…okay then, i guess this is a big deal anyway it goes…

interesting to see how it plays out…surprising if it turns out that shohei was also gambling, very possible though…

the article did a pretty good job of outlining the rules…yeah, wow – bad day for shohei…

arguably the greatest player who has ever played the sport…yeah wow…glad the yanks didn’t sign him…

cano, arod, cabrera and who knows who else is more than enough of that kind of outside the rules…boston and houston forever should be shamed for cheating as much as they did…

shoot, if giancarlo and aaron can get that damn big without juicing – it can be done…

i know a bunch of the stuff they use is related to physical recovery…still, rules are rules…

of course the dodgers won’t even hardly notice missing him if it comes to that…

i do though wish the yanks could put together a roster like the dodgers’…that clubhouse of players is amazing…

I’m a longtime cannabis user myself and even I was like DAMN

It’s literally everywhere you go in NYC now.

Waiting at a restaurant? Smells like weed
Walking by a kindergarten? Smells like weed
Planning to jump off the 59th Street Bridge? Probably smells like weed

dang, y’all making me feel guilty way out here in so cal…

for the record i’d just like to say – i have 1 huge air purifier and another 6 smaller ones throughout the house, i got an aromatherapy oil diffuser in each room…

i’ve closed the air vent in my room…occasionally when the boys are over i’ll go out on the street to smoke…i think i’m at least a good fifty feet from anyone’s home…i walk around so, hopefully it dissipates quickly…

yeah right, i’m not too sensitive about the weed stuff…

i still remember years ago a friend at work stopping me as i came back from lunch and them letting me know i should probably go to the bathroom and washup – i remember telling them that maybe there was something going on with their nose…deny deny deny deny…

Gee, it’d sure be a shame if those FA signings blew up in the stupid Dodgers’ faces.

It would be funny if I’m the event of an Ohtani suspension he were to lose the $2m only, with the Dodgers on the hook for all that deferred money 10 years from now.

well well, take a look at Kevin O’Connor’s Tyler Kolek comp: https://nbadraft.theringer.com/

I’m sold.

There’s actually a lot of inefficiencies in the sportsbook market because of its fragmentation. Notionally it should be a very efficient market but as a matter of fact there’s lots of mispricing of lines day to day—especially at the recreational books. Mostly requires a quick trigger and a lot of discipline. I’ve made a tidy sum for myself since I started in August.

That said, I wouldn’t recommend starting if you can’t stomach swings—it can get brutal.

It’s literally everywhere you go in NYC now.

Waiting at a restaurant? Smells like weed
Walking by a kindergarten? Smells like weed
Planning to jump off the 59th Street Bridge? Probably smells like weed

“Hug me till you drug me, honey; Kiss me till I’m in a coma: Hug me, honey, snuggly bunny; Love’s as good as soma.”
― Aldoux Huxley

The more narcotized the sheeple are the easier they are to herd….

Tristan DeSilva’s draft profile is very appealing, as well. Shades of another Jacques Jr.

The oldest verifiable brewery has been found in a prehistoric burial site in a cave near Haifa in modern-day Israel. Researchers have found residue of 13,000-year-old beer that they think might have been used for ritual feasts to honor the dead.

interesting to wonder which came first: fermentation for enjoyment, or worshipping of gods…

same might be said for weed…

Cannabis was attested to around 12 000 years ago near the Altai Mountains in Central Asia, and since then, cannabis seeds have accompanied the migration of nomadic peoples.

i’m gonna take a wild guess and say folks reasoned out the effects from opium poppies and magic mushrooms a pretty long time ago too…

hmmmm, i see a pic of ‘ol aldoux sucking on a death stick from back in the day…yeah, i forgot to mention tobacco use…

8,000 BCE, First probable domestication of sugar cane by the indigenous people of New Guinea, who chewed it raw.

The first evidence of cacao use dates from approximately 5,300 years ago by the Mayo-Chinchipe civilization in Ecuador. Traces of theobromine (a chemical compound in cacao) have been found in their pottery, suggesting cacao was first used in a drink.

and – now we have burgers, fries and shakes…mmmm pizza too…

oh shoot, almost forgot, was watching a commercial today that said you can get this yummy gummy covered in air nerds…nirvana don’t get much closer than that…

Just want to add my sincere condolences to you and your family Doogie.

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