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99 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2024.01.03)”
Tonight is an 8:30 game at MSG, apparently on ABC…weird!
After my quick review of yesterday’s thread I’m almost glad I have so many personal issues going on right now and don’t have much time to read and post.
A few notes.
1. We are only 18-15, but given we’ve played way more games on the road our record understates our performance.
2. Our SRS of 2.06 is 10th in the league, but SRS does not include home/away. So it also understates our performance (which is why I included it and other things in my own SRS calculations back when I bet on the games more often).
3. Regardless of where you are in terms of the contribution to winning of Quickley vs. OG, OG is going to start and play more minutes than Quickley was. So we are almost certainly better now.
4. If you share my view that OG is going help with the spacing for Randle and Brunson relative to RJ beyond just his personal stats, we are going to be a little better.
5. The one negative is that are our current record and SRS includes Mitch. We don’t have him anymore. Personally, I don’t think we’ve lost much if anything in the starting lineup. So maybe subtract a little on the backup side for going from I-Hart to whoever going forward.
Net, we are better than we look, just got a bit better, are still one player away, but have more than enough assets to land anyone in the next year or so to finish the team.
Before I post anything else, just want to say if I’ve said someone’s opinion or post was dumb, I’m sorry about that. I don’t take posting here THAT seriously and if I say something like that, it’s just me shit talking cause this is like an online bar for me where a bunch of knicks fans are hanging out and debating bball and when I do that with my friends, we say stuff like “are you crazy?” or “no fucking way” or “you gotta be kidding me!” and it’s not about dismissing their opinion or thinking they’re dumb. It’s just shit talking about sports.
I do find it weird when people only post the possible negative outcome of ever transaction. So yeah, DJ, I’m gonna call you out on that but it’s all good. I’m not trying to make you feel stupid. We’re all knicks fans. I just can’t abide to approaching my fandom that way. Especially after 20 years of us sucking and the team being relatively fun and good with no bad contracts (bye RJ!) and all of our picks. Like are we going to win a chip? Most likely not cause only one team wins every year. But we can dream now and when I turn on the knicks most nights, they win or at least compete. They make the playoffs, they win series. And they got some good players. And it’s not all old dudes putting in one season before we suck again for a decade. So I just don’t really get being negative right now but that’s just me.
So it’s all good to all of you from my end (except maybe E, but even he/she/they can be fun to fuck with).
On another note. Someone made a comment I think on P & T about this trade that I thought was interesting. How this was an “old school” trade. Where players were swapped for players straight up (with a second round pick thrown in) and it was more about each team helping the other team in terms of where they are and what they need.
We’re so used to trades these days being the type where a star or good player is traded because a team is blowing it up and that team is trying to get as many “assets” (picks) to rebuild and the other team is trying to add that piece to make them compete. And then we get to look back in a season and say “oh man they got fleeced!”
But these types of trades are harder to gauge. It could be one where both teams benefit from it so looking at it solely through the lens of who won and who lost the trade is not necessarily the right way to look at it (at least not right now).
Yeah, it was a sad experience. I’m skipping the 3-4 posters who incinerate the discussion but still.
Mitch and Hart are both good players, we probably lose more in certain matchups than others. Our backups are pretty terrible unless we can get more out of Precious than Toronto did, it’s kind of like our PG situation
this is like a broken record… it’s not because i hate leon rose… it’s not because i just want to be negative…. it’s not because i am dug in on having a certain slant…. at almost every opportunity this front office has looked at whatever possible upside there was and decided to sell out for insurance to borrow a blackjack acronym… and yes you get something back for insurance and you get to feel pretty good about yourself sometimes… but over a long period you’re going to be a loser… with these series of moves we’re buying into the big move not setting us up for contention but to even stay relevant… i loved the jalen brunson signing despite all that… do i get a new york knick fan decoder ring now too?
i’ve had to explain that position maybe a thousand times…. i don’t know how people still don’t understand that… it does not come from no where… it should not come as a head scratcher… and it certainly should not come as a surprise….
i go through extra effort on a data driven.. well thought out approach.. at each step in the process…. precisely because of people like you who will automatically assume i’m trolling the board…. and instead of engaging on any million of the datapoints… or logic.. it all gets handwaved away in favor… of accusing me as a bad faith actor… like you’re wrong sometimes right? does the other person have to act in bad faith to show you that you’re wrong?
like we’ve gone through this apology cycle a few times right? look out in the real world… i can call my friends dumb… and they know i don’t mean it.. but i usually can crack a joke … like you’re calling people dumb and there’s no punchline dude… why you so mad? these discussions go into the toilet cause of that… so stop it… treating others with respect should not be this hard…
I’m always late this days, but when threads are like yesterday’s maybe I should be glad to miss them… 😀
– Barring an offer they can’t refuse or a discount special, I’d rather have the FO will let the “cake bake” (thanks Hubert) on a big trade at least until close to the TDL if not next summer.
– The starting lineup is more balanced with OG. He gives us a new, more switchable dimension on defense and add another moving target opens up things a bit on O.
– The Bench Mob is weaker. IQ’s role as primary ballhandler and main scoring threat is badly missed.
We can discuss how to cover for it (a minor trade? a different PT and shots distribution? wait a couple of weeks to test Flynn?) but something must be done or Brunson will be gassed come playoffs time.
– I’d really like to re-sign I-Hart and in my opinion he deserves as much money as Mitch.
I spare you the “becauses” and I view this not as a slight to Mitch but as a way to acknowledge I-Hart’s underrated value.
– @djphan
Before the season I predicted 47 wins (if memory serves, or maybe 48).
Barring another trade or significant injury (knock on wood) I stay with that number.
– English (american) is not my native language, but the last time I checked “realism” and “pessimism” are not the same thing.
And it isn’t my “opinion”, it’s that it’s blatantly wrong.
Such a statement would lead to expulsion in any philosophy course, no matter the country. 😉
– @Strat I’m sorry to hear about your personal issues, my best wishes that everything will be resolved in the best way and as soon as possible
I’ll miss tonight game (hate 8:30 PM home starts!), I hope to be able to watch the weekend B2B, I’m very curious about the Philly game.
Max! Don’t leave us 😉
Like you and Hubert, I want to see how the cake bakes.
Grimes and Deuce must now prove they belong, and that’s a good burden for them to bear.
I do fear Thibs will run Julius and Jalen into the ground by April, but that fear has always been there.
And I still say 50 wins, but I have crazy hope, along with the hope that Thibs did not “teach” all the cutting and passing out of our boys at practice.
i don’t actually think the roster is more balanced…. from a ‘role’ perspective we were actually fine… we had 4 guys with usg over 20… which is completely normal.. and actually almost mandatory for a functioning offense… we just needed a vastly better version of RJ who shot from outside better… and/or december Julius + 2021 3pt Julius to be considered contenders…
we replaced two high usg guys with yet another 3 and D guy… to go along with the half dozen or so 3 and D guys we’re going to spend over 100mm of our cap on… and that’s going to hurt in very real ways sooner or later… because for almost half the game there’s only going to be one guy creating all those 3pt opportunities that you are increasingly depending on…. and brunson and randle are good but they’re not jokic good to have a high octane offense on their backs alone…. even booker struggled with this until he had cp3….
in either case… you have donte and OG who will almost certainly absorb most of the usage vacuum and we’ll see how that turns out…. a darkhorse here is ihart which we can hope pinch-post triangle ihart won’t get mothballed since that would relieve alot of the burden from the others who are going to struggle mightily creating shots in the ways that we’re used to creating shots….
getting clarkson or burks is not the answer either.. because they’re worse than rj in a lot of respects…. and a very real risk of spontaneously vaporizing on the court…. but whatever we do… mcbride will need to be replaced… hopefully we can come to our senses and give flynn a try….
Just to be clear, “come to our senses” doesn’t really make sense when the player under consideration is injured.
On the more fun side, good article on how Chet’s start compared to all-time greats in The Ringer, but my favorite non-sequitur quote is this, about the Pacer’s recent attempts to play defense:
As Carlisle cracked over the weekend, “Being historically great on offense is fun, but even dating a pretty girl gets boring after a while if she can’t guard anybody.”
Correct me if I’m wrong 😝 DJ
Doesn’t replacing RJ’s bad minutes and IQ’s good (but fewer ones) with OG’s good ones (on both sides of the ball) and DDV’s good ones equate to the team being better? Seems like it would.
Not sure its PTSD that runs rampant. Feels like “Pessimism Porn”
Sports Porn also feeds a powerful sense of intellectual vanity. We post online feeling superior to all these fanatic orange and blue fans who have no clue that this rebuild will end in a disaster. By making oneself miserable about the frightful hell and shame that awaits the Knicks, we actually feel better because we were smart and we knew it. Pessimism can be bliss too. Hope this helps.
Humor me
Say we do trade for KAT in the offseason:
1. Who do we replace Randle with? And..
2. Do we retain Hartenstein and trade Mitch for that Randle replacement?
I can see where retaining Hartenstein works in that scenario because I think he and KAT can play together for stretches. Obviously the Randle replacement has to be a defensive minded forward bigger than OG that can keep defenses honest now and then, because if we get KAT- he’s playing C.
Thoughts?
Who are the other 3 and D guys on the team? And are they 6’8″ and can guard 5 positions?
howdy Swifty…just so you know – you are my anger buddy…if there’s anyone here on this site who would have any chance of understanding what it is like to feel pissed off most of the time, to be filled with continual rage, i have a feeling it is you…i apologize if that notion might offend you…
i absolutely love how furiously positive you are at times…
to the point now, future reference – if you are going to apologize – short, simple and sincere is almost always the best path forward:
nothing else needs, or should, be said following that first sentence.
yes but those possessions are going to look a lot different… of course we’re not going to ask OG to run a play from the top of the key and ask him to drive to the hole…. that might not even happen even once.. and we used to run that action a dozen or so times between RJ and IQ…. to sometimes get better looks for Brunson/Randle or as a result of earlier action failing with them earlier in the possession….
that burden will now fall on Randle and Brunson alone.. there are no more secondary playmakers on the floor with them at all times which is why they had to play 14 minutes straight against the wolves…. but they’re not going to be able to take all of those possessions so it will look very different when it’s not in their hands… and how those possessions occur will determine how good our offense will be… our offense was already hanging on a knife’s edge and elevated due to 3pt shooting… if we get less open 3s… if we get to the line a lot less (this part is a guarantee to happen)… that has enormous ramifications for the offense….
and it’s unclear at best where the difference will come from….
Poindexter, couldn’t really follow your convoluted trade scenario, but I don’t really need to cuz I really don’t want KAT. Sure he’s a bit more of an offensive threat than Randle (although 29 vs. 39 last game), but they’re very similar, and it feels like KAT is just the weaker sauce. Randle has tons of warts, but he’s trimmed off some and I’m used to the others now. I don’t want another warty guy who’s warts I will need to spend time getting used to (sorry, this post is getting a bit grotesque).
you mean all those open 3’s that RJ Barrett made?
Trading Randle for KAT seems like a lateral move. He’s just a grass is always greener type player. We’re looking at the things he does well that Randle doesn’t, mainly 3 point shooting, and some think that means he would be better. But I bet if we got him, we’d find just as many things to be annoyed about with him. Minny is doing great now but KAT has been in the league for almost a decade now and is just now having some real success. Seems like a fringe all-star to me. He came in more talented and better than Randle but I think Randle is maybe better than him now.
just noticed there are five teams now within 1 game of spots 4 through 8 in the east standings (heat, magic, pacers, cavs, knicks)…
this may be how the season ends with very little difference in record/performance between the fourth and eighth seed…
I agree. That’s what makes this deal kind of tough to evaluate. It’s “possible” we gave up a little more value than we got back but still improved the team.
That’s if you assume Julius and Brandon trending towards their recent 2 point averages is not real, assume guys shooting lower than average from 3 wouldn’t improve and that any guys shooting better than you expected didn’t improve at all. Which is a lot.
I so want to make a comment.
yes we have the donte 3 and D guy who’s short and can playmake a tad.. we have hart the 3 and D guy who can rebound but doesn’t shoot 3s as well… we have grimes who can hit catch and shoot 3s and that’s about it…. we have mcbride who doesn’t actually hit 3s… and now we have OG who can do the 3 and D part very well….
they all do more or less the same thing… we traded our 3rd and 4th options on offense for a souped up version of the guys we already had…. RJ and IQ may not have been all that great… but what they did do was allow all these 3 and D guys to play within their abilities..
you can look at purely TS and just look at that number and call it a day… or you can also look at the 10fta/36 and the 7-8 assists that also just evaporated from the offense… and maybe you start to realize that offense isn’t all about hitting open 3s….
so what arbitrary endpoint do you think is real? the 2021 or 2022 julius or the 2023 julius? the nov 2023 or dec 2023 julius? do you really think december julius is the real one? then why would you stop at 45 wins then? shouldn’t we be at 50 if he’s going to put up a 60% ts?
so who’s not shooting well from 3 that’s going to make up for the fact that the two highest volume shooters are shooting near 45%? we can quantify this… so just tell me who you think is not shooting what they should be shooting and let’s see what if that makes up the difference….
Everyone thinks replacing IQ is going to be a problem for the current team’s offense.
Saying that OG, Hart and DDV are all 3 and D guys really kind of negates all of the other things that each one does well that is different from the other.
Unless, of course, you’re using that term in comparison to RJ. Then yes, Hart and DDV and OG are all 3 and D guys because all of them play D and shoot 3’s better than RJ Barrett.;
I think I figured it out now. DJ is RJ BARRETT!
The team is clearly better than before, and best suited for the playoffs, where IQ didn’t play well. Usually in the playoffs is the starting 5 that matters and we’re much improved in that aspect. The 2nd unit used to win us games in the regular season and now it won’t keep doing that, but in the playoffs that was not the case. It’s hard to say the trade made us worse unless there’s someone that believes IQ was going to take over Brunson’s role.
I’m not sure how anyone could possibly think going from RJ to OG in the starting lineup is an issue on offense (not to mention the huge upgrade on defense).
First, there’s not even a huge drop off in usage from RJ to OG. To the extent there is, it’s because OG is smart enough to not throw up bricks all night long. When he’s defended well he moves the ball instead of driving into traffic and getting his shot blocked or taking a bad shot. The better ball movement is going to help also.
Second, we’ve seen that both DDV and even Grimes are capable of upping their usage a bit and staying efficient. They were being underutilized with an inefficient RJ in the starting lineup.
Third, the better spacing from having OG on the court instead of RJ is going to make it easier on everyone else as far as getting into the paint goes.
The only potential problem of the trade is on offense in the 2nd unit because we are going from the high usage solid efficiency from Quickley to low usage and questionable efficiency from Deuce and also removing RJ’s minutes from that unit. We don’t have anyone to make up the gap. Most likely that means either Brunson or Randle will play some with the 2nd unit until we make another trade to strengthen the bench scoring (which I feel certain we are looking for) or Deuce shocks to the upside on offense. We may even give Fournier some minutes for awhile.
I hate that Quickley is gone. I hate the way he was handled and think it will hurt the 2nd unit, but we are not finished making moves yet. The first move strengthened the starting rotation on both sides of the ball.
Cyber,
Last post +1
In the playoffs the starting unit is more important. Agreed.
I think both of these things are true:
1. DJ is right that replacing RJ with OG is going to create new issues for the offense (usage increases and bench questions), though it will also solve old ones (spacing issues, primarily.) I think it’s at worst a wash, but matchup wise it might cause issues when we hit the playoffs if we’re facing elite defenses who can shut off paint forays effectively. In any case, I think it’s incumbent on Thibs to let I-Hart be his Clippers self a little bit more. This would go a long way towards alleviating the easy buckets issue if OG doesn’t show a little extra tertiary shot-creation ability.
2. We are going to get back what we lose on offense (if anything) on defense (and from improved ability to matchup against bigger teams–though this is surely hard to quantify so I’ll keep it vibes-based.)
To put my money where my mouth is: If I recall correctly, I predicted 47 wins at the beginning of the season. Post-Mitch injury, I thought we were going to be more around 44. If we stand pat until the offseason, let my prediction now be 48 wins at the close of the season. If we make a remotely sensible trade for a backup PG, put me up for 50.
I think we’re better (if not quite as charming). DJ (or RJ) makes a good point about fewer people making regular forays into the paint, but given how often RJ did that and failed, I suspect we may make that up with more three pointers and back-door cuts and the like.
As discussed, we need a drive-and-kick backup for Brunson. Assuming his shooting wasn’t a mirage, Deuce is perfectly cromulent at bringing the ball up, but forays up to and around the rim aren’t really his thing.
do you think replacing Julius Randle with Cam Johnson would be better or worse for the offense?
If the Knicks had OG and DDV vs Miami in the playoffs instead of RJ and IQ do the Knicks win that series?
Granted to me the biggest reason the Knicks lost was cause Randle missed Game 1 and then played rest of series on a bad ankle that needed surgery but to me the current team is much better suited to win a playoff series against the elite of the East than it was before. Mitch being out though obviously is a huge issue for this year’s postseason.
RJ Barret USG 27.1
OG Anunoby USG 18.0
we probably wouldn’t beat cleveland
We all know what E’s answer would be to the Randle or Cam Johnson question….
Why are we concerned with replacing the usage of someone who couldn’t shoot? I don’t get it. What am I missing here
Bricks and blocked shots are not relevant usage.
on a clear day it can seem as though you can see til forever…
18 wins to date (winning pct. .545), 49 games remaining…on our current pace that means about another 27 wins…
to date, 7 more road games than home games…i don’t think it is entirely unreasonable for us to achieve around a .625 winning pct. moving forward…that would give us an additional 30 wins instead of 27…
now that we’re a good bit in to the season – i would adjust my initial 47 win prediction to 48…
OG is not like Grimes and Hart. For starters he’s better than either of them defensively, and has the size and defensive chops to guard the other team’s top scorer. And he is clearly a better offensive player than either of those two. He’s the best two-way player on the team. We didn’t really have a true defensive stopper before we acquired OG. Now we do.
The team does need another initiator, and Brogdon is such a good fit that I’d go for it if the price isn’t exorbitant. You’d have to move Fournier’s expiring but then you could simply trade Brogdon in the offseason if you want to make another consolidation move, as he will become an expiring after this season. Plus unlike Fournier he actually has value.
I’ll do it for you, walker:
“That’s if you assume Julius and Brandon trending towards their recent 2 point averages is not real, assume guys shooting lower than average from 3 wouldn’t improve and that any guys shooting better than you expected didn’t improve at all. Which is a lot.”
Brandon? Bogdan? Bojan? Boban? Brogdon? Brogdan? Brojan? Burksan? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?
Huh? (“Brandon” is *nothing* like “Brunson.”)
Going from Barrett’s usage to Anunoby’s is a blessing because we’re replacing bad usage with above average usage. OG has shown in his first game already that he can cut to the basket well, pass, play in transition and provide spacing, those are all things that lead to quality shots on offense that aren’t connected to a player being able to initiate a play. So I’m not concerned at all with the starting 5.
For the bench, it’s obvious we need a playmaker, because no one else can create for themselves and others and there’s a limit to how much we can stagger Brunson and Randle’s minutes before it hurts us more than it helps. But then again, everyone understands this and I’m pretty confident Rose and the rest of the front office is capable to understand this very obvious situation just like we do.
Donte is shooting unusually well, he’s probably going to get worse. Bronson is shooting 43%, last year on pretty.much the same team he shot . . .42%. assuming hes going to collapse is the negative shit you are doing that annoys people
I suspect Randle is going to play more or less like Julius Randle. He’s 29 we know more or less who he is unless you read way too much into a bad six games
Oh, yeah. I forgot (Charles) Bronson in my list.
We all know OG is more efficient than RJ but I was curious about consistency so far this season from the game logs in terms of good shooting overall and cold shooting from three. Small sample but still interesting.
This season RJ shot 50% or better from the field in only 8 out of 26 games (31% of the time). OG shot 50% or better almost 2x that rate at 15/27 games (55% of the time).
In terms of going ice cold from three, RJ shot three pointers – 11 times out of 26 games at under 20% or less (42% of the time). OG shot under 20% at less than half that rate – 5 times out of 27 (19% of the time).
In the playoffs where cold streaks hurt even more, he should prove even more valuable.
Via mike vorkunov:
Knicks-Bulls tonight at 8:30pm ET on ABC. That’s the first NBA regular season weeknight game on broadcast TV (not counting Christmas) since at least 1991, via NBA research.
you do realize that Donte shooting ‘just’ 40%… results in 2 less 3s per 100…. that’s 6pts….
again.. i ask what else is making that up…. might i add… what else is making that up to the point that im making all this ‘negative shit up that annoys people’…..
if you can’t come up with it… then please retract… because that does annoy the shit out of me….
so you can do the same by replacing Randle’s usage with Cam Johnson and have a similar effect on the offense right?
Randle’s ts has not been stellar either… in fact… most of our heavy usage players … aside from Branson…. have not been great… so if you replace all of them with higher ts guys we should have the #1 offense eventually right?
or no?
Yes. Branson, Missouri, for sure.
“And then the offense collapsed because we got rid of RJ Barrett” is not something I’m worried about honestly. We should acquire another initiator for the second unit but we should be very excited that we got rid of a shitty player on a toxic contract.
RJ shot the ball a lot despite his putrid 92 TS+ and 88 eFG+. He fucking sucked. Sure you gotta redistribute those shots to other guys but the other guys can probably do better than that piss poor efficiency to be honest.
Plus how many of RJ’s buckets came at the end of blowouts where nobody was even guarding him anymore but he was determined to get his 20 pointzz? Not zero!
What about Bronson, Missouri, the place where everybody looks and acts like Charles Bronson?
https://youtu.be/-Bt4Ly9_9Qg?si=1Fw8FoZtvhXsg8YI
We already did Bronson a few posts ago.
I’m getting a different number
Per BKRef, Donte takes 12.9 3PA per 100 and hits 5.7
If he drops to 40%: 12.9 x .4 = 5.16
Difference in 3s made: 5.7 – 5.16 = .54
Multiply by 3 for points: .54*3 = 1.62
So I’m getting 1.62 fewer points, not 6.
Shot creation really is important, and the fact that the Berri crew denied as much is one of their many takes that has aged poorly. To get defenses to react the you want them to you need guys with the ability to get off a reasonable look without an assist. That’s why even decent shot creation is valued highly in the NBA.
The operative word there is “decent,” though. RJ simply didn’t meet that bar. He’s 52nd out of 58 players with 100+ FGAs and 25% USG in TS%. Simply redistributing his shots will likely result in better efficiency, even if you’re skeptical of the ability of the guys on the current roster to shoulder more usage without an efficiency drop off.
We probably should get an additional shot creator if at all possible, and I think if/when we do we’ll see that shot creation at RJ-range efficiency just does not cost that much in the NBA. There are a lot of guys who can do it and choose not to, because it’s detrimental in most contexts. We can throw the Pistons a few seconds for Alen Burps and call it a day.
I think Strat is absolutely right that the difference between OG and RJ when it comes to usage just boils down to decision making, not ability. OG isn’t a higher usage 53% TS guy because he doesn’t want to be.
“so you can do the same by replacing Randle’s usage with Cam Johnson and have a similar effect on the offense right?”
No, because Randle is a much better player than Barrett is.
You’re not the only enlightened person on this board that understands shots are not created equal, man. I’m just never going to lose sleep over having to replace the 8 usage points Barrett had over Anunoby because they can be replaced in so many ways, and it’s such a hard to quantify thing because every game has its own flow. We could talk about how Anunoby’s defense forces worse shots from opponents which open up more transition opportunities, we could talk about how he’s bigger and stronger and thus could theoretically help another uptick in offense rebounding that creates x amount of quality shots or extra possessions, etc etc etc.
You’re arrogantly choosing to die on this hill that you’re somehow the only voice of reason on this stuff while it’s such a complex point of contention that nobody, and that includes you, can properly quantify or predict. That’s why I barely engage with it.
Everyone knows we have to somehow replace Quickley’s production, and the way he created shots, but I won’t ever consider going from Barrett to Anunoby a problem, all things considered.
i should’ve included 3pa from last year was also 9.4… but i was taking last year’s #s from GS… but if you regress to his career 3pt attempt rate then you’ll get to 10.4 also.. he’s making more 3s so he’s taking more 3s… if he’s making less he will take less…
but even still… taking off 1.4 pts essentially wipes out our whole net rating so that’s not some insignificant number…. it’s going to be somewhere between that… and it’s going to have a big impact no matter how you slice it…
I don’t know, it’s not a lot of points, you can make that up lots of ways. Brunson could start making more 2 point shots, Randle could get up to his career level in 3s, maybe the new roster improves the defense a bit, maybe we run some offense through iHart and get a couple layups, etc. Or maybe our offense gets a bit worse. I don’t know what’s going to happen.
and cam johnson is a better shooter than og… what’s your point?
ok so the fact that you don’t know… does that mean it may or may not happen?
so what makes you assume that i’m making all this negative shit up when i could just be assuming that all those may or may not happen cancels each other out and the difference we’re left with is the huge outlier coming back to earth?
do you think you were being fair to me with all this in mind?
yea and you can use the same logic for replacing Johnson for Randle…. it’s hard to quantify yes but can you expect that the offense DEFINITELY gets better simply because you replaced Randle’s shitty ts with Cam Johnson?
i mean it sounds you’re not sure… but you’re way positive about RJ because RJ sucks…
thibs also had a top offense in minnesota… and this was despite having sucky usage soakers in Andrew Wiggins and Jamal Crawford taking up a huge amount of possessions? how do you think that was possible?
trading OG’s offense for RJ’s is not some clear cut plus on the offensive side… you probably make it up and then some on the other side of the ball but it’s not some chasm of a difference…. you also factor in IQ’s usage and you all of a sudden have a pretty hefty difference to make up in order to tread water….
dj you seem to be having trouble reading what I write, you should go back and read it over. You didn’t make up Donte shooting unusually well. I agree with you about that. There was literally one (1) guy on the team making 3s at an unusually high rate, there’s nothing there that says the offense was on the verge of collapse before our trade because the theoretically future points lost by Donte shooting his career percentages going forward could also be made up by other guys doing that from 2 or 3.
Now missing IQ, that might fuck things up.
I’m interested in seeing how RJ does in Toronto playing at SG. Maybe he can play in the post more and bully the smaller players or finish through them on drives.
IQ seems like a great fit next to Barnes, maybe Siakam too if they turn it around this month.
Nah, RJpham is right. Everyone else is just a Pollyanna.
Dj, at some point you have to realize that a small group of people have made picking you apart their personal pastime and it’s now something they bond over.
Your concerns are valid and you’ve made your points well. You just have to know who not to engage with. Joe Biden doesn’t go on Fox News to explain how successful the American Rescue Plan was, you know?
That’s a good point about RJ’s garbage time stat padding. I’d forgotten about that, a bit.
I still like the trade a lot. You know, this is a chance for someone to step up and fill some or all of that usage void.
Is it totally out of the question that Thibs will not let Fournier get some run with the second unit and try to help it?
OG usually has around a 100 TS+. RJ is usually hanging out around 90. OG has about 2/3 of RJ’s usage.
That other 1/3 of usage we’re talking about— a handful of possessions a game is now going to be soaked up by some of the other guys. Those additional shots would have to be positively dreadful to bring that collective TS+ to something BELOW the godawful number that was amassed by RJ.
IQ is a different story, we will need a usage soaking replacement for him, which everybody agrees about. But there is no question to me that OJ Anunoby is a far better player, and far more conducive to winning than RJ Barrett, who frankly stinks.
I would imagine they’re going to run this Flynn kid out there when he’s healthy, he at least has some ball distribution ability
No one will step up! It will never happen now that I’m in Canada!!!!
One of us willing to die on RJ Barrett’s hill was not on my bingo card.
“Dj, at some point you have to realize that a small group of people have made picking you apart their personal pastime and it’s now something they bond over.
Your concerns are valid and you’ve made your points well.”
I actually agree with this. The problem is one of tone. They’re concerns about what might happen in the future, not truths. And when others present counter points, he accuses them of not understanding how true his concern is (which is incredibly condescending), or of being mean to him (which is playing victim), when in all honesty people just don’t feel as strongly that things will go as badly as presented.
Re usage, DJ thinks it’s going to be a real problem, others don’t. That’s cool. I look forward to finding out who’s right.
whoa you are correct there mister z-man, weird start time, like a saturday start time, and on ABC…
okay, my one thing i think everyone is overlooking about the OG trade – dude’s got a british accent, when doesn’t that sound cool…
i have a feeling one thing different between OG and RJ – julius randle will not be walking straight in to and bumping OG after a play between them goes south…
i don’t know if OG weighs 230, 235 or like 245, more likely, but he’s got boulders for shoulders…
can’t wait for mitch to get back…with julius, OG, mitch/isaiah – the knicks now have one of the strongest (literally) frontcourts in the NBA…
seeing as how you’re vice president of the optimist club and you can’t come up with an optimistic assumption to offset this 3pt shooting… then it’s fair to assume that an optimistic assumption may not exist right?
and so what… we shouldn’t talk about these effects? because what they’re too small? they don’t matter? i am just being negative for the sake of it? if you think you’re being clear in what you wrote.. you’re not… so if you want me to understand you need to be more direct….
You know, Geo, I’ve been contemplating Julius’s game, and the only power forwards I can think of who can compare with Randle when it comes to flat-out bully ball is Giannis and Sabonis (not sure if the latter is more of a center now?). Anthony Davis is better, but he tends not to play bully in the same way. Perhaps because he keeps getting hurt…
There are some big-ass bully centers (Joel, Vuc, Valanciunas, Bam, Jusuf), but power forwards?
oh raven, you’re just making it too easy for me 🙂
You know, Geo, I’ve been contemplating Julius’s game
time to dance…
I’m not a victim! I’m ballin’ out in Toronto!
One of the strangest things about the tv schedule tonight is not only does our game tip off at 8:30 on ABC, but the Heat and the Lakers are on ESPN at 10 pm.
So they’re directly against each other from 10 pm on , and ABC and ESPN are owned by the same company! Just bizarre.
hey d-mar, you would think they would have the data that would support that being a good move…primetime basketball on a wednesday on a major network…
i hope we stomp the bulls…i have a feeling though it’ll be a competitive game…hopefully we pull away by the end of the third quarter…
deuce needs to play better, soon, otherwise it is flynn in…
and how is it that.. that i’m dying on this … rj barrett hill? seriously…. just because i am the only one who mentioned this and i’m taking on the whole blog… again…. because i’m the lone wolf of this opinion that apparently offends so many people…
we have the same people crying from the rooftops about how OG is the savior of the offense now that he replaced RJ in the starting lineup…. and that’s DEFINITELY the case…. and i’m saying no… you probably have that in reverse… and i laid out the reasons why….
but i am being positioned as the extremist…. how? i am the only one asking anyone any questions here… i’m the only one actually interested in having other people’s opinions clarified so that we don’t misunderstand each other… i am not accusing anyone of bias and if i’m being snarky it’s because i’m getting a ton of hostility back at me for no reason….
and then you have a guy changing his username with the appropriate level of capitalizations and playon words… and that’s so fucking cool right? that oh yea that’s a perfectly mature and level headed response that just plays into the victimhood… boohoo…. you don’t have your ny knick fan decoder ring…
and you’re taking a magnifying glass to what I’M writing about? and i got issues? and I’M unreasonable? wow… that’s certainly a way to treat people…
buddy you replied to this
Donte dropping to 40% from 3 is less than a point a game in offense. I mean that’s a real thing over a long enough span of games, but it’s not some insurmountable problem.
i’m with ya DJ, us dad’s got to stick together, plus you’re a knicks’ fan, plus – dj is my son’s name…
let me know what you need, i’ll try to help…
Wow. *That* escalated quickly.
ok so that’s out of bounds got it.. so then what is significant enough to talk about and point out that we can quantify to that extent that would not be construed as bias? just so i can fit into your parameters next time and don’t hit any tripwires….
Hi Doogie, have you ever sat and watched people. Watched how their bodies moved in conjunction to each other. Particularly groups.
I remember being over in Germany and feeling like i was being constantly mauled when i was in the store, felt like my personal space was consistently being invaded. It was weird and intrusive for me.
Personal Space Seems to not Exist at All on the Internet. not even a little…
my point, i think a lot of folks relish the opportunity to “compete/debate”…sort of like doc bob likes to run, a “release” of sorts…
in that sense, it’s a good thing, i guess…my concern for some of you here – is that some KB’rs take this meaningless bullshit from the site, and the negative/shitty energy that’s created – and then unleash that on the folks around them – in the “real” world…
that is my concern…
Cybersoze, pessimism is definitely not the same as realism. But pessimists always seem to claim they are realists instead of pessimists
“i am the only one asking anyone any questions here…”
‘What about Bronson, Missouri, the place where everybody looks and acts like Charles Bronson?’ (JK47)
‘you mean all those open 3’s that RJ Barrett made?’ (Swiftie)
‘Who are the other 3 and D guys on the team? And are they 6’8″ and can guard 5 positions?’ (Swiftie again)
‘Thoughts?’ (Poindexter)
‘Doesn’t replacing RJ’s bad minutes and IQ’s good (but fewer ones) with OG’s good ones (on both sides of the ball) and DDV’s good ones equate to the team being better?’ (cgreene)
So, no.
I can’t wait for more data. Bring on the games.
DJ- have you given a prediction for the Knicks final record post-trade? It seems like most people are sticking to their original picks- I haven’t seen anyone who thinks the trade moved us into a different tier. I think OG will help mitigate the loss of Mitch and I expect Randle, Brunson and OG will be among the league leaders in minutes played going forward to help mitigate the loss of Quick. I said 47 before the season and now I’d say 45-47 and either 6th or 7th seed barring a big injury. How big a hit do you see them taking? Do you think the Knicks are going to be sub .500 from here on out? You seem to think 47+ is Pollyanna territory so exactly where are you? If you’ve already given a number I apologize for missing it.
i assume you’re talking about me… i talk to people.. a lot of people during the day…. i have to negotiate and look at a number of things.. and i grill people.. i live a pretty fast paced life… and i have a need to get things right… that’s not the same thing as ‘winning’ an argument.. but i don’t like leaving a convo without at least an understanding… how you interpret that is up to you…
i think what you gotta worry .., if you truly are worried about others… are the folks who don’t actually interact with a lot of people.. and don’t know how to… and think that they are and wind up not.. which is why they can’t get along with many and use the internet to have one way conversations with each other…
which is why most folks end up isolated and goto extremism…. which is why the internet becomes a breeding ground for this stuff.. you see smaller versions of it everyday on this blog if you pay close enough attention….
do you think i’m the type of guy that would ask others to go on the record without doing so himself?
i said we’re gonna be a sub.500… do i have 100% certainty? no.. baseline certainty for any of this is probably in the 70% territory… it’s enough to have some sort of conviction… teh point is not to flog them for getting it wrong.. the point is to get people to clarify their positions especially when someone says something crazy that it could tank the offense and might be a net 1 or 2 win loss…. and everyone else is net 0… (and yes random noise can impact any of these random win totals)…
and we tell everyone to burn the witch… over that…. the fucking heresy to make those claims!
no no no no no…please stop taking everything so personal…it is not…it is you/me/everyone/people in general dj…
okay whatever, over honest – i worry that you take this bullshit personal and it bleeds over in to your life, where things really matter…
and the fact is – most likely you have people depending on you…why spend much emotional energy on people that do not really matter in your life: us, this, anything reall
that’s not a helpful or healthy thing…
sorry for nagging you…i hope you’re doing well…
i’m going to shut up and go get food now: spaghetti and a calzone…yum 🙂
edit: you do make valid points in your post…heck, make that: posts…
talk about whatever you want. I am engaging your argument that the Knicks offense is propped up by ‘ungodly 3 point shooting’ on the merits. This is what you claim you want. The only Knicks making 3s at a particularly high clip were Brunson (and we have something like 500 attempts over 2 years that suggest he’s become an excellent 3 point shooter) and DDV. DDVs shooting 3s better than his career would suggest he’s going to shoot going forward was not a significant reason the Knicks offense was pretty good.
“i am the only one asking anyone any questions here…”
I asked a *lot* of questions!: Brandon? Bogdan? Bojan? Boban? Brogdon? Brogdan? Brojan? Burksan? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?
So 40 or fewer wins? I really hope you are wrong, but I do enjoy reading your analyses.
And I hereby declare this site to be a dj-response-free zone for a few days, for myself at least, since my mostly tongue-in-cheek comments seem to be making some sad (although I’ve been having a hearty chuckle or two).
Thanks- I agree with your concerns but think that the defense should improve (OG is one of the few wing defenders that can be a real difference maker) and I think Thibs will (hopefully) make the rotations more fluid to mitigate losing Quick. Given the easier second half schedule I think they can play a few games over .500 the rest of the way. I don’t think you’re crazy at all but I still think a 6/7 seed is more likely than 8/10 (or worse). Hopefully we’ll have decent injury luck and we’ll see where we are at the end of the year!