Knicks Morning News (2023.11.09)

Since Max is out, here’s an abridged recap:

The Spurs might be good someday, but not any time soon. Losing this game would have been very troubling, and the Knicks knew it. So they came out focused, immediately taking a double-digit lead, which they maintained for the rest of the game. However, every time they got comfortable with a lead, the Spurs would go on a run, facilitated by lackadaisical play and bad shot selection by the Knicks.

First and foremost, there was the Wemby vs. our C’s intrigue. And from the opening tip, it was a lopsided affair in favor of the Knicks. A combination of being physically overmatched and having opening night jitters had Wemby looking pretty helpless. His length bothered drivers, but it didn’t matter all that much since the Knicks decided to make some open 3’s for a change. Towards the middle of extended garbage time, he made some nice plays on offense, as did his teammates in making an unlikely 4th Q run to cut the lead to 14 (KJ missed two FTs that would have cut it to 12….I got a bit restless for a minute) but overall in inauspicious debut. One observation is that Wemby’s FT stroke looks as pure as I’ve ever seen from a gawky 7+ footer. NBA teams should take note that sending him to the line is a big mistake….if there’s any similarity to KD, that’s where it is most apparent right now.

Jeremy Sochan is as odd of a PGish player I’ve ever seen. But he’s actually an interesting choice. Very effective on the ball on D, and a better ballhandler and passer than I ever imagined he could be. And he gets very nice extension on drives to the basket. The shot doesn’t look horrible, but not great either. I could see his energy being a huge factor in going on 4th Q runs like the one they went on last night. If nothing else, they are fun to watch and Spurs fans should be psyched.

Other Spurs shoutouts: Zach Collins looked great, and Branham and Bassey had their moments. If Wemby can figure out how to not get bullied like he did last night, there’s a pretty good 7-8 man rotation around him.

As to the Knicks, here are my grades:
Mitch: A+
Nothing much to say here beyond rinse and repeat what he’s been doing all year. I still am troubled by his FT shooting…some form of hack-a-Mitch is going to cost us down the stretch of a close game at some point, but beyond that, he’s just crushing it on both ends.
IQ: A
It was a superb overall performance from IQ, he did mostly everything right and nothing wrong except maybe one ill-advised 3 during a Spurs run. It’s a joy to see him play this way, especially how smooth he looks in the 3-15ft range.
RJ: A
A virtually flawless night. One could quibble with his efficiency from 2 so far this year, he was 3-8 last night…but he’s an all-star candidate right now. The 3-ball and FT form are both looking sweet and pure. Sustainable? Probably not, but who cares? More please!
iHart: A+
Beyond scoring 13 points in 15 minutes, including polished post moves and monster putbacks, his stats don’t really do justice to how impactful he was out there. He could easily be a quality starting C in this league, and to have him as a backup is an incredible luxury. I know Mitch is awesome, but iHart does things that Mitch simply can’t do, and can hit a FT. Will he get to finish some close games? We’ll see.
Brunson: B
Jalen, boobala, stop drawing charges, you’ll put an eye out! Seriously, he’s incredible at this, but will it take a toll as the season wears on? He’s already got some contraption on his hand/wrist…is that from breaking a fall? Like RJ, he’s stroking it much better from 3 than from 2 thus far, but no worries! 6 asiststs vs. 0 turnovers…more, please!
Randle: B
He still looks out of sorts, in his own world, brooding. A few dumb decisions, including an inexplicable halfcourt line violation. Some selfish iso’s that wound up getting blocked badly. But compared to the steaming pile of elephant dung he had been for much of this early season, I’ll take it. Racked up some points in the 4th Q that made the night look better than it really was. But a force on the boards, and his D, while still having lapses, was generally fierce and focused. He had some promising work in 2pt range…drives, one-foot fades, etc. Stuff to build on.
Grimes: C+
Still far too invisible out there, but did make some offensive noise in the first Q, including an opportunistic drive to the rim. 19 minutes seemed about right. He better pick it up or that’s going to be a ceiling for him…a nominal starter that spends lots of time as a spectator.
JHart: B
He was his usual self with very limited usage but impactful in non-stats-producing ways. 24 minutes seemed about right.
DDV: C+
Shot poorly but made up for it in other ways. Was in during some runs by the Spurs, so needs a hit on his grade for that. Not worried about him because there is enough depth to absorb his undistinguished games.
Rest of bench: not enough to merit a grade
Thibs: A-
The team does dumb shit when they get a big lead, and that’s a reflection on him. Still, a commanding performance and reasonable minutes distributions based on play.

Overall team grade: A
Sort of a must win, and the team came out ready to play. The outcome was never really in doubt. Randle is slowly, if irascibly, coming around. We are looking more and more like a playoff team. Next up: the miserable Hornets….trap game alert!

I should add that seeing the team shoot 45% from 3 on 42 attempts was rather refreshing. Was the Spurs’ ISM out for personal reasons or something?

“I’m permanently off the Randle train. I think ultimately if we upgrade somewhere else, we want a more consistent outside shooter/defender to play PF. We need better spacing and better decision making than Randle is giving us.”

This is kind of a weird position. Randle is a 2-time all-NBA-level player on a really good contract. You keep bringing up how bad he is for spacing, but he’s drawing double teams in the midrange and in the paint on tons of possessions…maybe the only player on the team that does so. He’s a force on the boards and a good defender when engaged, as he is on the majority of possessions. If you are going to replace him, it better be for a max-level player.

We should also keep in mind that last night was our first game against a team not projected to be in the playoffs. To be 4-4 at this point is hella fine by me.

As to Randle, here’s some numbers from his last two games:

5-14 from 3 (36%)
12-26 from 2 (46%)
11-14 FT (79%)
.625 TS%
26 REBS
AST/TOV: 1:1

Those numbers are pretty good, and a couple more makes from 2 and fewer TOVs away from being great. (cue the “well, they are a couple of more misses from 3 and FT line from being bad” rebuttal)

My mistake, I didn’t include the .44xFTA in my calculation. .542 is correct! Still, not horrible!

Scottie Barnes is having an MVP-type start to the season. Seems like the coaching change is really helping so far. Here’s a nice article on the Raps and Barnes in particular.

“I get what you’re trying to do here but unfortunately the numbers do not support your trolling, and do in fact support the notion that Julius Randle continues to be hesitant to get to the rim as often as he did early in his career.”

And I get what you’re doing here as well…trying to save face by employing a sketchy statistical quirk to defend one of your worst takes of the last 5 years. It’s not trolling to point that out.

I appreciate that you are a student of the game, and one who pays attention to other students of the game like the KFS crew and Ben Ritholtz. As such, you must know full well that Randle’s move away from his rim-running ways as a role player in his pre-Knicks seasons is nearly entirely due to a) becoming a first option on offense and b) analytics that suggest that the team is better served by Julius being a high-volume 3pt shooter, even at sub-optimal percentages. That said, according to the data you posted above, the most steep decline in his rim attempt% took place between 2018-19 (45%) and 2020-21 (16%). Are you suggesting that the vast majority of his alleged physical decline took place between age 24 and 26? Because since that 16% year (when his all-NBA performance was correctly attributed to outlier performances from long 2 and 3), he’s been at 25%, 22%, and now 22% again. And in 2022-23 he was all-NBA at 22% without the outlier 3pt/long 2pt shooting largely because he was very efficient at the rim! In fact, his FTr (.371) and his number of dunks (62) last year were the highest they have been as a Knick. He also had a career high in And-1’s (81) and a career low in shots blocked (57). Nothing in that data even remotely suggests that some sort of physical decline. If anything, it suggests the opposite.

Now, I agree that his numbers, especially his shooting % from 0-3ft (.267…yikes!) and his number of shots blocked (18…yikes!) strongly suggest that something has not been right with him physically. But to not give him the benefit of the doubt at this time seems about as “unfair” as it would be to worry that Brunson is going to shoot .393 from 2 all year due to physical decline, or that Mitch is going to shoot .513 this year due to physical decline.

Randle’s ankle injury was not some devastating one like Gordon Hayward’s. He was able to play on it vs. Miami. There is zero reason to believe that it is anything that is going to permanently rob him of enough athleticism to make much of a difference in his game once he fully recovers. He already is looking more athletic in the last couple of games than he did earlier on, especially in the second game of the two b2b’s, where he was a combined 0-11 from 3 and had 2 FT attempts and 0 ORebs. Sure, if it was more serious than anecdotal evidence would suggest, he’s vulnerable. But since he is coming off of an all-NBA season that no one predicted, and since he is well known for being a maniac when it comes to conditioning in the offseason but was robbed of that opportunity by playing for over a month on a bum ankle to try to help his team, he deserves every benefit of the doubt.

Brandon Roy was a budding superstar, truly electrifying. Danny Granger was excellent but not on that level. At least, that was my recollection, having seen them both live.

Crazy thing is Brandon Roy is still 39 years old and Danny Granger just turned 40. Knee injuries suck!

I suppose as a Knicks fan you have to root for the Bucks to implode…that 2025 pick is looking better and better…