We just had one of the more boring offseasons in recent memory, complete with an absurdly stupid preseason schedule (and when the games were played, either the Knicks or their opponents tended to rest a bunch of stars) and seventy-five different players signed to the Knicks two-way contracts, but finally, mercifully, real NBA basketball is upon us, and now, in a tradition as beloved as never kicking anything to the curb, it is time to predict how many wins you think the Knicks will win this season.
Last year, I went for 49 wins, and for much of the season, I felt good about that prediction, but it turned out that I believe only Ben R guessed correctly with 47 wins.
This year, despite falling short last year, I am actually going to go higher this time around, and go for 53 wins.
Same basic concept as last year, which is that Thibs is a guy who loves to win in the regular season while few other coaches have that same approach, and so the Knicks will get a few games just by virtue of never taking games off ever. The Knicks also played at a very strong win pace after the Josh Hart trade last year, so they bring that same squad over to this season, replacing Obi Toppin with Donte DiVincenzo.
I don’t think this roster is particularly sensical, but it’s probably still good enough for some regular season success and probably the #4 or #5 seed (especially if Philadelphia continues their trainwreck of an offseason and James Harden just doesn’t play for them). It would sure be sweet to have a team win 50 games again.
Okay, that’s my pick, now I’ll open it up to all of you, along with a poll!
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151 replies on “The “How Many Wins Will The Knicks Have In 2023-24?” Prediction Thread”
So I voted 44-46, although I’m strongly rooting for 47-49 (and 53 is not outside the realm of possible). Just some weird, sneaking suspicion that we’ll struggle a bit for some as-yet unidentified reason. I sure hope I’m wrong and it’s just a personal penchant for expecting bad things to happen. Because, you know, world.
I’m going 47…the West teams will be tough.
I’m going 48. I still worry that at least a few of the teams that were worse than us last year but have higher ceilings based on talent level will get their acts together. (Atlanta with a full offseason under Snyder, for instance.) But the continuity, plus Thibs, plus Brunson, plus depth makes me feel relatively confident that we’ll either avoid the play-in altogether or at least wind up with one of the top 8 seeds.
I predicted 47 to 49. But gotta admit. After we did not extend IQ, my optimism about this season went down a lot. Maybe it’s just me being bummed out because I love IQ and hopefully it will all work out in the end. Maybe not extending him is the smart play for now. But man I want us to keep IQ.
And maybe it’s just preseason but something feels a little off. I can’t really say what it is but I’m worried we might be in for a letdown after last season.
Despite that, I still think 47 to 49 wins is a reasonable outcome for us and I would not be surprised if we won more than 50.
Even though I’m high on the young guys, I went with 41-43. We have gotten lucky with injuries, and I think this is the year our luck will run out. Plus, many teams have gotten better simply because their young guys have higher ceilings. I hope I’m wrong, though!
Forty-four to 46. Staying stagnant in this era (or any really) is a sublime recipe for regression.
This feels like a 51 win team. Crushing the Cavs provided a huge confidence boost. Physically, Randle, RJ, Mitch and Brunson will ground down opponents over a long season. The Knicks will lose the 3 point battle more than a few times and not having reliable back-up length is a problem. Josh Hart’s max effort basketball will add wins. The danger for this team will be when continuity morphs into stale. Patience can co-exist with adding talent. Leon maybe overdoing it just a bit.
Chose 44-46. We have a bit of an uneven roster and I think people are overrating Josh Hart’s impact next season (he’s not going to shoot over 50% from 3 again).
I’m going 46 wins… I think the east is generally better and there are really very few terrible teams now. Even the theoretically tanking teams have really good players! Portland has Ayton, Jerami Grant, and have guys who could take a leap (Simons, Sharpe). And Scoot Henderson might be awesome. Detroit will have Cade back. Charlotte has LaMelo back (is Miles Bridges going to be allowed to play?).
We have an obviously solid rotation, are really well insulated against any usual number of injuries (except to Randle), and have continuity – nothing new to learn really. On the high end I could see us approaching 50 wins, but mid 40s seems more realistic.
I’m super interested in San Antonio. Wemby might be amazing from the jump. And they just have a lot of interesting pieces. They are probably 2 years away, but might get to 30-35 wins I think?
I feel the same way as Raven and I voted the same way.
42 wins….
Randle splitting the difference between bad and all-nba julius thanks to floater/fade range regression… ditto IQ… it is somewhat mitigated by modest improvements from RJ and Brunson… also playing against full strength teams proves to be quite difficult….
offense tanks…. defense improves and is ranked better than our offense thanks to full seasons from hart and donte and mitch’s herculean efforts …. but not enough to make up for a mediocre offense run almost entirely by Brunson…. we fight for the play-in just like we were before the hart trade and his steph curry impression… it doesn’t matter if we make it or not… we’re bottom third in 3pt%… fournier doesn’t play…
we trade our two mid firsts rd picks because we’re too good for rookies… we get a haul of 5 top 20 protected in 2040…. KB debates whether the 2040 draft is the double draft…. summer rumors swirl about donovan mitchell…. with everyone else off the market… leon rose prepares to go all-in on a package for him….
Did my usual game-by-game pick and after a couple of wobbling months wins started to mount and my final number is 47 wins.
While higher than my last year prediction (45), for some reason my gut feelings are less optimistic…
Maybe I undervalued some eastern “middling teams” (like Orlando and Indiana, who I both like and think will compete for a play-in spot).
Anyway: 47.
44-46. The pythag for last year was 48, but I think the rest of the league has gotten better while the Knicks tread water. It feels like the FO/coaching staff is too risk avoidance/stubborn to do anything spectacular this year.
We’ll have to wait until next off-season for the Knicks to be heavily rumored to acquire Giannis or Embid, but fail to do so because RJ showed promise or something like that.
I have to go with 50. Feels a little over my skis, but I think people fears are misplaced. Only real issue is injury to Randle – we’re in trouble if that happens. Can weather a few games, but an extended absence would be a problem.
Yes, a lot of bad teams now have some good players, but becoming a team is another thing entirely. Some of those teams will make the leap, others (hello, Detroit) won’t. So I still think we’ll have our share of gimmies.
I voted 47-49. I’m always wrong.
44…feels like marginal improvement . Others took bigger steps…but the effort still wins games….
My best guess:
Celtics
Cavs
Bucks
Knicks
Philly
Hawks
Pacers
Nets
Raptors
Heat
Magic
Bulls
Pistons
Hornets
Wizards
47-49 for me. Stick me in the middle with 48.
I went with 41-43 but I’m hoping to be wrong.
47.
But this is tough. We were such a tale of two teams last year, and I think people are a bit too quick to completely cast aside the rough start. It’s a datapoint too.
I get to 47 like this:
Randle–some regression.
Brunson–stays the same.
Quickley–small improvement.
Grimes–small improvement.
Mitch–stays the same.
RJ–same old same old.
Hart–regression that’s counterbalanced by having him for the whole season.
iHart–improvement, maybe even enough to get us into 50+. An x-factor of sorts.
DDV–regression compared to last year, ultimately more of a depth piece than a ceiling raiser.
When you add it all up it seems like we should do better than last year’s 47, but that’s counterbalanced by the rest of the East, and the rest of the league, getting better.
Swing factors:
-The Julius Randle Experience. All-NBA, albatross, or in between? You never really know, and the answer will go a long way towards our success or lack thereof. He could be the reason we get to 50+ or the reason we miss the play-in and neither outcome would surprise me at all.
-iHart’s improvement. I mentioned this already, but he was a wildly productive player for the Clippers in 2021-2022 and comparatively disappointing for us last season. Can he recapture some of that?
-Quickley. It flies a bit under the radar just how divided his season was last year between “borderline unplayable” and “all-star caliber.” I’m normally not a fan of chopping up seasons in an arbitrary way to make a point, but this really does stand out:
First 30 games: 9.6 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 39/30/84 shooting splits, .501 TS%
Next 51 games: 18 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 47/40/81 shooting splits, .608 TS%
Again, I tend to think the best sample is the largest one. But it’s fair to at least hope he can simply play like he did in 51 games for the entire season. That would qualify as a pretty massive leap overall, but unlike most such leaps it would merely require him to play like he already has for the majority of a season.
-Grimes. There have been plenty of whispers among the beat writers that there’s internal confidence in there being more to him than his current Danny Green starter kit status would indicate. Subjectively, I do think we’ve seen some flashes of creation ability. Those are obviously meaningless unless the manifest into actual production though, and who knows if he’ll even get enough usage to display any new/latent skills.
RJ: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I’ll go with 48.
I think Randle and Hart will regress a bit, and we will miss Obi. Otoh the young players, Mitch, RJ, Grimes if they allow him to shoot more, and Quick will improve. In fact this is the whole premise of not doing nothing, which I supported for the offseason: to give the young guys an opportunity to improve and raise their value.
I got us for 47 again this season. But that could change depending on Leon’s plans for Quickley. I wanna believe that Rose is gonna sign him in the summer, but at the same time- only a foolish FO would let a player like Quickley go on this market and let other teams determine his value. Quickley’s good enough where you don’t take that chance(Lin much, Knicks?). I think it’s entirely possible that Leon has his eye on a rotation improving deal that includes Quickley and Fournier since we do have Deuce and Arcidiacono behind Brunson. Not saying it’s a smart idea, but I can see how that would make Rose want to take that risk. Not only that, DiVincenzo can play make a little on that second unit. So we have options. The question is, what does Rose see out there? Quickley’s cheap and talented, so he’s great sweetener for a big trade.
I dunno. 47 wins again. Ceiling of 50.
So uh, feels like this merits a mention:
Probably the single most plugged in Philly beat guy.
This incredibly obvious thing from the Pompey article has been denied by some here, so just to settle it:
It turns out that if the reigning MVP becomes available, Leon Rose will in fact try to acquire him. Shocker, I know.
I’ll go with 48 wins. Worst case scenario is 43-44, best case is 50-51.
To me though in the end just make the Top 6 which assuming would avoid Milwaukee and Boston as the top 2 seeds. Knicks would then have a very good chance of winning a playoff series again.
I’m going to be lazy and just say 50 wins without looking at the schedule or doing any calculations
Pompey is not a reliable source…. he was the one who plugged the harden to the rockets deal back during the beginning of last season … which was very obviously mouthpiecing for harden’s friend/agent who was also equally desperate… and folks here took the bait then for some odd reason….
Pompey was plugged in during the colangelo era… Morey apparently does not like him and so he has effectively zero sources now… he’s basically chris broussard….
I mean, seems pretty obvious to me that Harden to the Rockets had serious momentum. The reporting indicates it was very real until Udoka was hired, who (understandably) didn’t love the idea.
I was going with 51 but found out that the in-season tournament final does not count as a regular season win…so am paring it back to 50.
Pretty narrow bandwidth of predictions here, with the most dour pessimists predicting low 40’s and the most hopeful optimists topping out at 50 or so.
i mean it would seem to me that if a coach prevents a signing.. it was eons from a done deal…. what is even serious momentum? that he was mentioned over a cup of coffee? that he’s on some board with the rest of the potential free agents?
in any case Pompey is not reliable… this is just one example… you really only have to talk to sixers fans… of which i am friends with many… to know… and you don’ thave to believe me either.. you can go into the sixes subreddit or any of the watering holes yourself…
I also voted 44 to 46 but I have a totally different addendum than you. Solidifying our position with back-to-back respectable seasons would actually be an outstanding achievement and a solid building block.
Nothing will matter, though, if we don’t begin to see a surge in intelligent asset management, and failing to extend IQ does not bode well in that department.
45 wins, the 5 seed, and a first round victory over 4th seeded Philadelphia followed by an unsatisfying pasting at the hands of the top seeded Celtics. That is my full prediction.
Eastern conference seeds:
1. Boston
2. Milwaukee
3. Cleveland (dropped them down 1)
4. Philadelphia
5. New York
6. Miami
7. Atlanta
8. Toronto
9. Brooklyn
10. Chicago
While Boston and Bucks are a level above everyone else in the eastern conference, I’m not sure that they will have the two best regular season records due to both rest and injuries. One of them is likely to have a less than impresive regular season. Its finals or bust for them two. They don’t need to win a maximum amount of games because its not their goal like NY and Cavs is.
For this reason+ Phila circus (can’t wait till Embiid calls in sick with lower back issues because he’s pissed), – Knicks win 52 games, get the 3 seed and play the 2 seed Cavs in the 2nd round on their way to EC finals.
No one doubted this, so I don’t understand the reason for your victory dance.
The incredibly obvious thing from that article denied by some here is that we’re not going to steal Joel Embiid for the RJ Barrett pu pu platter.
The starting point includes Julius Randle.
Bet the over on Houston. They added some tough vets and Jabari Smith looked like a breakout player in preseason. Over/under on them is 31.5 and I think they’ll beat that.
Bet the under on Dallas, who are pitifully thin behind Doncic.
44 wins. like many, think the offense won’t quite sustain but the defense could improve with a full year of hart and dd. guessing opponents will adjust just enough to slightly reduce the raging success of our crash and fire offensive juggernaut. injury luck may turn against us relatively speaking but hopefully mitigated by depth. expecting a smallish randle downtick and no leap from rj.
also this year high on both thompson twins for surprisingly solid rookie years, chet, suggs, & scottie barnes showing the improvement he didn’t quite manage last year.
For arguably the first time in like 25 years the Knicks return the entire core of a really good team which you think would fill me with confidence but still feeling quite nervous about this year – I can’t shake the feeling that last years top offense was quite fluky and the total lack of non-C size besides Randle worries me. Picking 45 but can’t quite shake a bad feeling in my gut about this year.
I am going to say 43 wins. I hope I am wrong but I think our offense will not be as good as last year. We lack a lot of shooting as a team and I think we will miss Obi more than expected. Donte while a good player is completely redundant with IQ, Grimes, and Hart (the players he will be taking minutes from) so I do not think his presence will really help unless there are a couple injuries or a big trade.
OKC is the team to watch…. getting anything from chet is going to be super huge for them and has a chance to set them up for quite a window… along with a warchest to have their pick of any star on the market… even as a rental…
44 wins seems like what would happen if SGA went down…
Ptmilo, are you cheating and just using the Vegas line?
48
I have to say i’m a bit surprised my prediction is higher than Z-Man’s! 😛
I was enormously high on Chet during that draft and everything I saw in Summer League and the preseason just gave me more confidence. I like Paolo just fine but Chet not going #1 overall might look incredibly stupid soon.
I am very, very, very jealous of all things OKC.
OKC has big upside. They could use some more shooting but Chet should provide a major boost to their defense and I quite like Micic as a bench piece. Vegas is onto them as they have a relatively high 44.5 over/under.
Feels like a 49w season to me
45 wins. We will remain solid, but did nothing to improve significantly. Donte for Obi doesn’t make sense to me, except that it means IQ and/or Grimes is gone. That proposed Embiid trade sounds good to me if we can keep Randle and Brunson. No thanks on Mitchell. I don’t think anything big will happen until next off-season. In the meantime, Indiana, OKC, and San Antonio will all be fun to watch.
OKC won 40 last year with 44 expected wins. Their center last year was… I can’t really tell but some combo of Jaylin Williams, Mike Muscala, and Kenrich Williams.
With Chet in the mix, I think 44.5 isnt bad at all. Right now they’re the only team I have as an over (not including the Knicks, who I always have an over bet on)
You mean the band from the 80s? 😀
47 wins…
because _______________…and there it is…
A few notes even though I didn’t give a well thought out prediction:
* Mitch actually is in the best shape of his life, Cavs series Mitch all year
* I buy IQs shooting from 3 given his elite FT%, he’s going to improve again or at least maintain
* RJ will have positive 3pt regression but only to about 33-34%
* Hartenstein is going to show more of his game with better cutters in DD & Hart
* Randle is going to be slightly worse, I made a simplistic calculation earlier and think I got around 55 TS% based on shooting regression from different areas
* Brunson will have negative regression in his 3pt%, he may offset that with improvement elsewhere
* Grimes 3p% will dip as he tries to shoot more off 1-2 dribbles, off movement, & shoot less from the corners
* Fournier will be in the rotation as 10th man for exactly 10 games before Thibs pulls him again
* We’re going to get torched from 3 this year, so maybe I should predict 44-46 wins instead
50 because it’s time for me to be an optimist.
Ptmilo, are you cheating and just using the Vegas line?
vegas wishes
the knick players named in the pompey story are so weird it’s hard to know who would leak it. i kinda wonder if wme didn’t leak it just to keep randle and embiid in the headlines for the new nba powerhouse skechers. bet you didn’t know the guys behind skechers also started la gear, which at one time nabbed kareem, the mailman and olajuwon as endorsers.
I am going to go with 46. Because I want to be a little bit optimistic.
The “willing to include” framing about a handful of guys everyone knows we’re lukewarm-at-best on was pretty funny
Happy for Clyde, even if he’ll only get to say Ish’s name a few times a year, rather than if we had signed him. Sad for me that he is returning to a team for which he has already played, when I want him to be eligible for every single Immaculate Grid square.
Isn’t Sumner a notorious Knick killer? Hopefully he’ll go to Europe!
I was talked into a $20 bet with a friend on a O/U at 43.5 and half a beer was all it took for me to throw caution to the wind and say “over”
let’s go with 44 wins because I hate burning money
edit: I’m reading the thread in reverse and see 44 from ptmilo so I’m good, my number was pulled entirely out of my ass with no metrics whatsoever, p good job
come’on man..i said 44 before Milo…didn’t that give you the warm fuzzy feeling before you saw his prediction???
you are nothing to me
jk you’re ok
Jeremiah Robinson Earl was just waived by Houston… might be an interesting pickup as a backup PF?
of course – he is the guy that OKC took with the #32 pick after they gave us #34 (Rokas) and #36 (Deuce) for that pick. If we just picked him up off the scrap heap thereby turning the #32 pick into the #32, #34, and #36 picks, would that make up for the incineration pick – even a little?
Since almost everyone seems to agree on 40 wins as our floor, and the low 50s as our ceiling, let me play devil’s advocate and ask two different Questions of the Day:
1. What would have to happen for the Knicks to finish in the mid-50s or above?
2. Injuries aside, what would have to happen for the Knicks to finish in the 30s or even below?
For the Knicks to finish in mid-50s — you’d have to believe RJ takes a leap in efficiency and defensively, and that Julius hits 40% from deep.
Essentially -w e’d have to replicate our math-beating OREB+FTR+low-TO offense as well as up our eFG significantly, all while putting out a top 10-12 defense instead of #19 or whatever it was. Tall order with Brunson/RJ/Julius on the court defensively, and RJ specifically on offense.
I’d 100% take Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
1. RJ improves or gets benched
2. We get every other year Randle and the ism holds out for a max contract
“* RJ will have positive 3pt regression but only to about 33-34%”
Don’t you mean progression?
— Doogie
for mid 50s… randle needs to evolve into a pick and pop threat from midrange or 3…. ~80% fts with 37% on 3s…. 48% from midrange… more pnr’s with brunson instead of iso’s…. rj would also need to take a massive leap…. 36% from 3… 52% from 2…. >38% ftr…. all of these things are never happening but maaaybe half of them might if you’re optimistic…
for 30s… we’re actually just a 2022 version of randle away from being a 30 win team again… the only difference is that we have brunson which prevents the bottom from falling out but if brunson starts missing a dozen or so games on top of it then we’re sort of right there again right down to the ill advised contracts and incinerating picks….
We’d have to make very impactful trade. I can’t see this roster clearing 54 wins on its best day.
Brunson regresses slightly, Bad Julius returns, and we get unlucky shooting volatility from IQ, Grimes, and Hart.
There are a few interesting waiver possibilities out there, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl being maybe the most interesting. I have to believe he’d be more likely to contribute something positive than any of the guys who make up the Churn Squad.
Kevin Knox II: Electric Boogaloo is on the waiver wire as well!
“Brunson regresses slightly, Bad Julius returns, and we get unlucky shooting volatility from IQ, Grimes, and Hart.”
I think that puts us in the high 30s at worst. To go lower we’d need injuries.
As for mid-50s, that’s a straight-up trade of RJ and some picks for Embiid (or Mikal).
also on the RJ front… yes just preseason… but he was 50% from 2… with a >50% ftr….
any bump in his ftr.. which is already quite high will catapult his game and might just on its own put him into positive territory… so if we start seeing him goto the line early and often to start the season like he has in the preseason… that’s generally going to be a great sign…
#1. What would have to happen for the Knicks to finish in the mid-50s or above?#
Perfect Chemistry leading to absolute Team Ball + a missing puzzle piece trade during mid season
2. Injuries aside, what would have to happen for the Knicks to finish in the 30s or even below?
Thibs going berzerk and Locker room explodes
Knicks had a 50+ win rate since Thibs shortened lineup last december. Not why 50+ is not considered as base case scenario?
Mid 50’s without a trade:
Grimes getting 15 shots a game without Brunson sacrificing any, and without injuries to any of the other major players.
RJ improves his 3pt and mid range percentages.
IQ is the late season IQ.
Mitch improves incrementally.
Magically we don’t miss a true 4.
Everything else stays the same as last year.
1. What would have to happen for the Knicks to finish in the mid-50s or above?
2. Injuries aside, what would have to happen for the Knicks to finish in the 30s or even below?
Trading for KAT. Not that I would expect either to happen if the trade occurred, but it would certainly flatten the curve
I can’t answer your questions, Alan, because i’m not seeing a way to reach mid-50s without a trade, or in the 30s without injuries. This team is solid and i’d say 9 times out of 10 we’d finish between 40 and 50 wins, without trades or injuries. And that’s why everybody is betting in this range.
brief interlude…interlopers need not care…
reconnected with old therapist this morning, just what the doctor ordered 🙂
set an agenda for moving forward…
also trying to come to an understanding with a new friend: silly ‘ol simon…increased the dosage to 3 grams, that seems to be doing the trick, really wish i new the name of the genus for the shroom that hit me…oh well…going with green noise in the background, plenty of perfect anchors to keep me tethered…
back to the show…
oh shit – i think the dog just tried to tell me something…
I’d gladly waive Jeffries and Windler to sign Robinson-Earl (Nova alumn) and Taj (the love he got from our players last wednesday clearly justifies the move).
I wasn’t aware that you speak doggish, Geo. 😀
I’m going with 46 wins- Randle down a bit, modest improvements from IQ and Grimes, probably a bit worse injury luck so we’re basically treading water.
As for mid-50s (without a trade): Randle repeats last year but shoots 40% from three and either we get solid improvement from all of Grimes, RJ, and Quickley or monster improvement from one of them. Plus Brunson maintaining his post-all-star break/playoff numbers. If Randle had shot 40% last year he’d have averaged 26.5 on a .614 TS- he’d be a legit top 15-20 player even with the spotty defense. Add Brunson and 2nd half Quick plus a little more volume from Grimes and/or RJ significantly upping his efficiency and you’ve got a team like those good Atlanta teams- still not good enough to win a championship but good enough to stack up wins in the regular season (esp. with Thibs not resting guys)
30s? If Julius and RJ revert back to 2021/22 levels we’re below .500. Add in a full season of first half IQ (remember IQ also stunk for the first half of 2021/22) and we’re in the mid 30s at best even without injuries.
getting there cyber…i hope all is well for yourself and your family…
too funny, i will say one “side effect” of the site here – i find myself looking up the etymology of words i lot more than i used to…
i see you all our having a bit of an overcast evening there…i hope your dinner was enjoyable um irmão…
If we trade RJ for someone good we could clear 50 games. Maybe if he just gets hurt and we replace him with IQ and Hart.
But 53 wins seems farfetched.
Hi Folks! I’m a long-time HUGE fan of this site, and have learned so much from all of you, and am grateful for all of it, but this is my first time posting. (As my Bubbie used to remind me – it’s time to shit or get off the f’in pot.) I grew up in Flushing (Kissena Blvd anyone?), in the shadow of Shea and the open space of the World’s Fairgrounds. Went to my first Knicks game in ’73, curtesy of a b-day gift from my sister’s boy friend (and future brother-in-law). I fell in love the first time I heard (felt?) the live chant of “DEFENSE,” and have been hopelessly (and sometimes hopefully) hooked ever since. And the sound of a ball through the net, forever as sweet as that first ever open mouth kiss from my high school sweetheart. I live now on the seacoast in New Hampshire, but my eldest lives in Brooklyn and we get to a game at least once a year. (We have tix for the Knicks-Nets game in January at Barclay’s.) With all that in mind, I’ll take a novice (and much less learned) stab at a prediction: low to mid 40s, I’m afraid, but would love to be proven wrong (on the upside). Did not like what I saw in the last pre-season. Yeah, it was pre-season, but still . . . . Also concerned about Thibs, that he will revert to relying on his starters too much and this is a roster that cries out for a much more even distribution of minutes, and really afraid of an injury to Randall, JB or Robinson. And agree with all who are concerned they didn’t extend IQ – he’s the exact type of player I wold love to see grow with the team long term, but it looks like he’s gonna be traded at some point for a wish upon a star. Typical, que no? I hope to contribute more in the future, but please allow for rookie mistakes. Be well, and please pray for even a bit of sanity, humanity and peace in the mideast.
Mid 50s would require some truly unlikely stuff. I think 50-51 is within the realm of reasonable possibilities though. That can be achieved with a few feasible things all occurring.
iHart returning to form, Quickley playing like he did for the last 51 games over the full season, DDV being a real upgrade over Obi, good health, and everyone else more or less staying the same should be enough for the low 50s.
Of course, while none of those things are outrageous on their own, it’s quite unlikely they all occur.
Welcome on board QueensBoyInNH! 😀
hey queens boy…thanks for kicking in, greatly appreciated 🙂
oh, and for a proper KB greeting:
– paragraphs are not really evil and just another unnecessary constraint to direct communication…they make it easier on others to digest the AWESOME info you have to share…
We should just add Taj to the coaching staff
Duly noted Geo, thanks for the tip!
And if anyone is ever headed up this way (Portsmouth NH, Kittery or York ME), give a shout and I’ll point you to a couple of pretty cool local brew pubs, some good places for a meal, and a beach or two which are perfect for an leisurely (but bundled-up) stroll on a brisk winter’s day.
Welcome QueensBoyInNH! The early candidate to win KB rookie of the year 2024! 😉
All is good around here, Geo. Except for the heavy rain, the Gods are clearly mad at us. 😀
I’m guessing you meant “meu irmão” (my brother). 😉 And speaking of my brother… where are you Bruno? Haven’t heard from you in a while!
🙏
Welcome aboard QB!
Welcome QueensBoyinNH. I don’t post much, but love the site and I am also a Queens Boy, now living minutes from Vermont in NYS. I just visited the NH seacoast a couple of months ago and swam at Rye beach, hanging out in Portsmouth! Great time. BTW, best state to ride a motorcycle, bar none! Knicks? 48 wins as is. However, I could see 40-42 wins before 52 wins.
Welcome, Queens Boy!
Agree that injury seems to be the only way we dip below 30 wins, or even close to 30. The 2021-22 team won 37 games, and that was with Julius and RJ playing terribly and without Brunson. Brunson and all the depth would seem to give this team a late lottery floor, given reasonable health.
I do think that the version of the roster where everyone plays to the best version of themselves — i.e., RJ gets back to being a pretty good defender and also hits a reasonable percentage from downtown, Josh Hart isn’t afraid to shoot, Brunson gets the same whistle he did in the playoffs, Julius keeps his head on right, Grimes’ shooting percentages finally match his beautiful shooting form, etc — could get into the mid-50s. It’s just the chances of all of that happening — the RJ piece in particular — feel highly, highly implausible.
Took the off season … off. Thrilled for the new season. IQ is the key; All Star please. Let’s go!
I don’t think it’ll happen, but that’s why it’s a bold prediction.
I have rushed a bit my predictions this year and I might have not thought them too well, but I REALLY feel that too many teams are taking risks and carrying very thin teams into the regular season. Yes, the idea is that you will get a better team for the playoffs, but any injury might derail your season. I think the Knicks are going to win a lot of games just by sheer consistence (although we are not impervious to a hypothetical Randle injury, the rest of the spots are very well secured by our bench). As usual I overrate the pelicans, but I have suprised myself predicting a good season for Minnesota, who I usally hate on. Boston might be injury prone, but has good players at every position. I dont know what to make about Harden and the Sixers, my guess is that he will stay and half-ass the season.
EAST
BOS 60-22
NYK 54-28
MIL 49-33
CLE 48-34
PHI 47-35
MIA 46-36
———–
BRK 43-39
ATL 41-41
TOR 41-41
CHI 40-42
———–
ORL 38-44
IND 37-45
WAS 31-51
DET 25-57
CHA 24-58
WEST
LAL 49-33
MIN 49-33
DEN 48-34
NOP 48-34
PHO 47-35
GSW 47-35
———–
MEM 45-37
DAL 44-38
LAC 42-40
OKC 42-40
———–
SAC 41-41
UTA 34-48
POR 26-56
HOU 22-60
SAS 22-60
Welcome back, KBA! Your prediction is 50 wins? Or have you reached 50yo like some valuable KB members? 😀
you rock cyber…meu instead of um…got it 🙂
ditto on liking to read bruno’s words – although i am curious to now here the two of you speak together to try to discern the differences in speech…
oh and definitely appreciate queen’s boy’s piece on peace…which i initially missed by being bludgeoned by block text 😛
oh and before i forget: where the hell did everybody go!?!? – i miss you roz…
@ Cyber. Haha, yes, I predict 50+ wins. And age is all in the mind, no? If only my mind worked better …
Profile updated 😉
@Geo. Just noticed Jeffrey Wright is gone from your profile. His forthcoming movie, AMERICAN FICTION, is getting “all” the hype. I can’t wait to see it.
howdy KBA…i hope you are well today…you’re sounding good and like everyone – EXCITED for the season to begin!!!
avatar wise, although i still deeply relate to bernard’s growing realization of his “humanity”, or lack thereof, life just keeps moving forward…
i think it was rama who helped me to understand the elation charlie brown feels in his runup to going to strike the football…
and, there it is 🙂
funny, i no longer worry now that the ball may be withdrawn by lucy, happy just knowing – something is going to be kicked…
big theme in the house these days, with the kids: lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way…
yeah…
LOL! Indeed, my friend, indeed. 😉
53-55… Why? Because I’m a damn fan and I want them to win more than last year!!!
As many others here and Knicks fans everywhere, I am bummed that IQ and Leon couldn’t reach an agreement on an extension. It’s hard to know how to feel about it until we get the numbers…both what was offered and what was counter-offered. Seems like the sides were pretty far apart, but could it have been $2-3M AAV?
So where do things go from here?
Clearly it all depends on how IQ plays this year, especially in the first half of the season. It would seem like he has to play at a level that would make the Knicks regret not upping their offer….but if he does that, then maybe he will be worth matching no matter what kind of offer sheet he signs? Then again, if he plays around the same level he did this past year and just okay in the playoffs, maybe those offer sheets are not all that much more than what he was asking for and he just winds up signing a deal here without really testing the market.
I suspect we were making progress at something around $22m-$23m annual value, and then the McDaniels and other deals changed the market and IQ appropriately wanted that level deal, say $27m. I don’t think we should have done that deal. If someone offers it in 2024 it will be because IQ merited it and we’ll match.
Also, nice post QB!
Iserp: Why Miami so high? You, Hubie, others – is it recency bias? I really, really don’t see it. I have them on the outside looking in. They lost two key players, Butler will miss time, they have no one behind Bam…I don’t get it.
And why Indiana so low? If Hali is healthy that’s a playoff team. Again, I think people really aren’t keeping up with the reality of these teams. Change comes fast in the league…
Here we go! So excited to watch Joker.
If I knew the Lakers would play Cam Reddish in the first quarter of the first game I’d have shorted them to the maximum extent possible
Seriously, what the hell is Cam doing out there?
Nuggets look pretty good.
Had no idea Wood was on the Lakers
LeBron looks great….
Lebron looks amazing holy shit
wow …what a suprise…beal is already injured…
Glad the MVP voters got their fatigue out of the way so Nikola can waltz his way to the next two MVPs
they should sincerely just give Jokic the MVP trophy at halftime
lakers have too many fake bigs in their rotation with woods, rui and hayes
Myles Turner and Bruce Brown are the only player on the roster who can defend, and the rest of the team aren’t particularly close to league average on defense. Hali, Obi, Hield, and Mathurin have been atrocious defenders in the NBA so far.
Jokic should snag a scoring title one of these years just to prove he can
Not going to do it missing bunnies like that.
Austin Reaves is emerging as one of my favorite players. Got some Manu energy.
Welcome, QueensBoy!
Just curious: Who has been your favorite poster? (excluding me, of course)
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl has a biblical first name and played for Villanova. We have to sign him right away!
Welcome QB!
And I like Reeves, too, but if he’s your leading rebounder at halftime, that’s not good…
Of course it must be me, as I am a Queens Boy (Jamaica), too. Plus, I haven’t corrected him yet, so he still likes me for now!
Here are the predictions I based my O/U bets on:
EAST
BOS 57-25
MIL 53-39
CLE 51-31
NYK 48-34
PHI 47-35
ATL 43-39
MIA 42-40
IND 39-43
TOR 38-44
BKN 37-45
CHI 36-46
ORL 32-50
DET 25-57
WAS 24-58
CHO 23-59
WEST
DEN 54-28
PHX 53-29
LAL 50-32
GSW 48-34
LAC 48-34
MIN 48-34
MEM 47-35
OKC 43-39
NOP 43-39
DAL 42-40
SAC 40-42
UTA 33-49
HOU 32-50
SAS 27-55
POR 27-55
just tuned in to basketball (it was hard to pry myself away from the elephant debacle on capitol hill…oh well)…
i saw a bunch of sportscasters having the lakers in the top 3 of the west…no…
cdiggy – you can sleep soundly all season knowing them laker fans are gonna be mighty sad this upcoming postseason…
hey doogie, did ya see – stepped in on your behalf earlier…
i have a jamacia queens story…
eh man, it’s all fun and games til you start messing with the english language…
I had Miami 6th. I don’t think that’s very high. That’s like 43-44 wins.
I see them barely winning a battle with Atlanta and Toronto to avoid the play in.
I missed it, geo…….I have to go to the office, and today was one of them (tomorrow is the last for the year)…….and when I do that, I cannot check in on Knickerblogger and it is tough for me to catch up in the evenings.
Thanks, though. You want to give me the short version of it? You don’t have to.
Jokic is a cheat code.
He really is. Does it all. Where he ranks on the all time list will be very interesting when all is said and done.
Range 42-50 wins. I’ll settle at 48 wins. If quickly breaks out and starts more than half the season. More like 50 wins.
I do think Jokic benefits a bit by playing in this era where there just aren’t a lot of great pure 2-way C’s…like Ewing, Hakeem, Shaq, Robinson…No one on the Lakers can even physically match up with him. Once he gets rumbling towards the hoop it’s all over. With all of his many gifts, he’d be MVP-level in any era, but the only C in today’s NBA that he can’t straight up physically bully is Embiid.
It will be hard to keep him out of the top-10 when all is said and done. Lebron, Jordan, Wilt, Kareem ain’t going anywhere…then Bird, Magic, and Russell round out the current top 7. I don’t think Jokic can displace any of them unless he wins a bunch more championships and MVPs. (in an intergalactic re-draft, I wonder where Bill Russell would go…he benefits from his time more than any of the other top-7, but his historical stature both on and off the court anchor him in that pantheon…no one is putting Jokic above him).
I’d say he’s already moving into the second echelon…Duncan, Shaq, Kobe, Durant, Steph…Jokic is moving towards the top of that list. Can he surpass all of these guys with, say 5 more years like his last 3? I think so.
This pretty much sums up Dolan, via the NYPost:
“The Knicks’ corporate sister Sphere will feature its logo on the basketball team’s jersey this season after owner James Dolan failed to find a sponsor who was willing to meet his reported $30 million asking price, sources close to the situation said.”
I stand as one of three votes for “40 or less”. Would the other two Knick haters please stand up.
no worries doogie, i hope things are well at work – and way more importantly moving forward smoothly at home…
ess-dog, i’m not getting the negative aspect of that…seems smart…
what was it before, squarepants or something…
i swear, even up to last week, i would have never believed the d-backs would go to the world series…
2 innings ago I didn’t believe it would happen…
The Warriors are such a machine, they send away Poole and suddenly Moses Moody plays like Poole.
Damn. I didn’t follow the NBA at all during the off-season. I can’t wrap my head around Chris Paul and Steph Curry in the same backcourt.
I like this Suns team better with Nurkic but I think ultimately they may need a real PG. Booker can make plays, but he’s not a PG and I don’t necessarily want him in that role anyway. I’m not sure what Beal adds but maybe between Booker, Durant, and Beal there will be enough playmaking.
The Warriors feel washed to me. It would not shock me if they have a disappointing season.
The Warriors are just so insanely small. It’s so crazy.
The Suns used three of the players they traded Ayton for in this game, and two were starters. That seems a pretty successful trade for them.