Knicks Morning News (2023.10.19)

This may be a stretch, but I wonder if Leon being an ex-agent makes him not want to stand in the way of players getting better opportunities/paths to make real money.

Getting back to the Obi vs. Wiggins convo, my main point was that Thibs saw potential in Wiggins, as evidenced by league-leading playing time and the rookie max extension, whereas he saw Obi as a guy with a limited ceiling who was eminently expendable.

As to whether Wiggins ever justified the max extension, the answer is clearly NO. But he became a much better player in a system that lowered his usage and allowed him to become an elite (if overpaid) 2-way role player, probably the 4th most important player on a championship team. He earned himself essentially the same sized extension that RJ currently has, which is reasonable for Wiggins.

In contrast, RJ’s extension was for significantly below the rookie max extension. Still an overpay based on potential over performance, but comparing it to Wiggins’ extension is otherwise apples to oranges. It certainly wouldn’t take what turned out to be the 7th pick to dump his contract, like it did for Wiggins.

In other words, I agree with TNFH when he says this:

“Wiggins has basically proven he can be the 3rd or 4th best player on a championship team, provided that team has an NBA Mount Rushmore candidate.

It’s both way more than I ever thought he would prove, and not an outcome that would keep me up at night when it comes to trading RJ. Especially considering it’s hardly even guaranteed for RJ, and in fact likely represents one of his higher-level outcomes.”

“Oh but “Randle’s upside hasn’t been fully reached” at the tender age of 29?

Enjoy your trolling, old timer, I’m not responding anymore.”

I don’t blame you for not responding, since you are making what a somewhat better authority than me (Thibs) would call an absolutely ridiculous argument about Obi. If the best you can do is calling me trolling old timer, that pretty much sums it up.

As to Julius and upside, let me clarify. I think Julius is in the 10th percentile of alpha dogs in the league, in the 50th percentile of #1a or #2 guys, and an elite #3 option. Hi potential is about moving up the ladder in the #1 or #2 categories, which I believe he clearly can do. He hit a BPM of 3.8 in 2020-21 which most here attributed to a) empty gyms, b) unsustainable 3-pt shooting, and c) unsustainable % on long 2’s. Then he went on to become Mr. Most Detrimental because those numbers predictably regressed. Then, contrary to the opinions of the vaunted KB hive mind that wanted to salary dump him, he figured out how to again post a 3.7 BPM without those unsustainable percentages.

Is there further room for improvement, or is he topped out at a ~4 BPM at age 29? I think the former, mostly because he’s now in a better role (1a or 2 option) that has continuity, and there is still a possibility that a subsequent trade will provide additional safeguards against his worst tendencies.

As to Obi, I strongly believe that he has absolutely zero potential as a #1 scoring option, and very limited potential as anything beyond a solid energy guy off the bench. I doubt that he has ever even been game-planned against, beyond “hey, don’t let Toppin leak out in transition.” Most of his threes (which I think he is pretty good at catching and shooting) are the result of him being left open. His post-up game that worked against smaller players in college is totally ineffective in the NBA, and the stiff hips and high dribble make him vulnerable to getting stripped.

#1 options are the focal point of opposing defenses and are subjected to blitzes and double-teams. I truly don’t see any possible way that Obi’s offensive could ever withstand that kind of defensive attention.

Obviously any 25yo can surprise….even Frank Ntilikina and Kevin Knox II still might have untapped potential. But the vast, vast majority of players that FOs give up on after 3 years have very limited upside. This notion that Obi was hamstrung by playing behind Julius is pretty weak sauce for me, precisely because it’s Obi’s obvious lack of versatility (he is an even worse train wreck defensively at both the 3 and the 5 than he is at the 4) that contributed to his limited minutes.

I’d be happy to be wrong about this because I love the kid…he’s a neighbor, is very endearing, and does some truly spectacular shit. But I won’t be.

I 100% agree that preseason is irrelevant to the overall success of the season. Can it mean something about how ready a team is for game 1 vs. the best team in the NBA? Probably not, but I’m definitely less sure about that.

The good news is that it could actually be a positive…meaning a wake-up call with a full week to ramp up. I certainly don’t expect Brunson to go 3-12, or Grimes to go 1-4, or IQ to sit, or for Boston’s starting lineup to have 8 steals. Or for the equivalent of Mike Muscala to make 5 threes in less than 5 minutes.

I also wonder if a factor in the Knicks clearing up the roster spots is in anticipation of similar cuts by other teams. Hopefully it’s not for the likes of Kevin Porter Jr., but maybe they either have inside info on others shaking loose, or just anticipate that some will because that’s generally what happens at this time.

Either way, it shouldn’t be all that hard to replace the likes Isaiah Roby or Jaylen Martin with better players.

“I continue to read this as a roundabout way of saying, ironically enough given the classic Realist/Optimist divide, that you don’t think Leon Rose has put us in good enough of a position for a consolidation trade and we will thus not be contending anytime soon…You may well be right!”

The irony is actually that you often complain that I am misconstruing your views, yet you are clearly purposely doing so here.

I never said that Leon doesn’t have enough assets to make such a trade. Just that it would be foolish to make an utterly lopsided one like the one that you seem to be fixated on. Is your take actually that if we can’t trade for Embiid without giving up IQ, then the path to contending is kaput and Leon’s plan is a failure? Are you basically saying that if Leon doesn’t do exactly what you believe he should do, then all roads to contending any time soon are closed? Even though the roads that were closed last year at this time because of different reasons….rudderless mess, albatross contract, squandered draft opportunities, free agency is dead, etc., suddenly, miraculously re-opened?

For the record, I think there will be better opportunities for a consolidation transaction than Embiid (or an “actual” opportunity, since your Embiid idea is not guaranteed to materialize, and even if it does, there is no guarantee that Morey will deal him to the Knicks.)

And unlike you and others like Macri (who also wanted to dump a 3.7 BPM all-NBA player for a bag of balls), I don’t thing the door to such an opportunity will shut due to definitely being in the second apron come 2025. There are non-lethal ways to stay under that threshhold indefinitely until a suitable all-in opportunity comes along. It might take some imagination to visualize it, though, not pure black-and-white, inside-the-box thinking that you are exhibiting here.

“We should really try to get Fournier going, find a role for him. I just don’t believe he’s so fully cooked he can’t provide a little bit of shooting and spacing off the bench. He seems like the kind of player who’d be a real nuisance if he played for the Heat, they’d find a way to use him.”

I agree, and that’s a real issue with Thibs. Spoelstra does put players in the doghouse, like Duncan Robinson, but it seems far less rigid.

To be fair, I believe that Fournier is pretty cooked as a starter on a good team. After he went 1-6 in a diminished starting role on 11/2, Thibs did try him off the bench for a few games before giving up on him. For the month of November, he played 108 minutes in 7 games to a TS% of .290. Maybe now he would be more accepting of, and prepared for, a small, situational role.