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45 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.08.12)”
We only made it to the second round bc we just happened to run into the Cavs.
There seems to be this idea here in a small circle of wild-eyed optimists that we were the runner up of the Eastern Conference. That’s not true at all. There were three other teams in the East that were near locks to have beaten us in any round. Not to mention a fourth (Atlanta) who would have had more than a puncher’s chance.
We were the 5th best team in the East last year, and it is indisputable (at least with facts).
The Cavs were just an incredible matchup for us. We can beat that team 6 days a week and twice on Sunday. But all that means is we can beat the Cavs. You can’t swap Cleveland out for Philadelphia in the first round and expect we would have won in 5 games.
There’s no “we just happened to run into the best team in round 2” bc the math in the East guarantees we will face a better team in round 2.
And that’s just the East! The team you’re so psyched about losing to got smoked by the Nuggets. And there’s at least 3 other teams out west that would be locks to beat us, too.
We are solidly a Tier 3 team. I am not knocking that at all. That’s a hell of an achievement. And we could go from Tier 3 to Tier 1 if a superstar forces his way here. But that’s what we are.
You’re very far off on a very simple point.
Losing ‘badly’ to the best team in the East, who beat everyone badly, doesn’t preclude us from being a top 3 team in the East. That’s it, that’s the point.
Does that mean we are a top 3 team in the East? No.
Does it mean we’d beat any team out west or any other team in the East? No.
If Miami beating a team badly in the 2nd rd is evidence that a team isn’t in the top-3 of the East, well I feel bad for Milwaukee who got crushed in rd 1… and probably for Boston who looked terrible in rd 3
So what exactly do we establish by saying Miami beat us badly in the 2nd rd? It says nothing meaningful about our ability to finish top-3 in the coming season.
And again, I don’t think we will finish top-3
So let me get this straight: the Knicks were “just lucky” to have matched up with the Cavs, they were “almost swept” by the Heat, and three other team in the EC were “near locks” to have beaten the Knicks in the first round.
Nothing like basing an entire argument on unprovable claims, while willfully ignoring all evidence to the contrary!
The irony is that no one is claiming that the Knicks are a Tier 1 team, whatever that means. What “a small circle of wild-eyed optimists” seem to be saying is that the Knicks are capable of beating anyone if a few things go right, and that they are positioned to make a consolidation trade to improve the team further. They are saying that other teams in the conference have serious question marks, ant that represents an opportunity.
The Heat could get better or get worse, depending on how they fill in the team around the eventual Lillard acquisition. If they stand pat, they will almost surely be worse. It’s certainly fair to boil down the difference between the Knicks and Heat last year to coaching, although injuries, prior playoff experience, and players getting hot and cold at the right time are also factors.
The Celts could get better or get worse, depending on how gaining KP but losing Smart and Grant Williams and Brogdan’s surgery works out.
The Bucks could get better or get worse, depending on Giannis’ knee and the effects of Father Time work out.
The Sixers are almost certainly going to be worse, but they have MVP Embiid and will be dangerous so long as he stays healthy.
The Hawks, Cavs, Raps, Pacers, and Bulls all have a range of possible outcomes, contingent on already executed and subsequent moves and player development.
My guess is that most here don’t really give a shit about how the Knicks measure up to teams in the West at this point, since they only have to worry about facing one of them IF they get to the finals. And if this Knicks team gets to the finals this year or next, that would satisfy nearly everyone on this board that the Leon regime has been a rousing success. Not everyone it appears, but whatever.
The bottom line is that there is more parity in the East than there has been in a long time, and who gets to the ECFs and the finals will be more contingent on luck than ever. It will be a combination of who’s healthy and who’s hot come playoff time. There are probably 7 teams with at least a puncher’s chance of making it to the ECFs. To argue that the Knicks, even as currently configured, aren’t in that mix, is just ridiculous. They have an reasonable chance of being in the top 3 record-wise in the EC, and a puncher’s chance of advancing to the EC finals IF they stay healthy, play to their “reasonable” potential, and get some luck.
No one is saying that they are locks or even favorites for anything.
They didn’t beat everyone badly. The Nuggets kicked their ass. And there were 7 games in the Boston series but for some reason you act only the first 3 count.
I suspect the Heat would dispute ranking East teams by win totals
Pro Tip: The Nuggets aren’t in the East
And there were 6 games in the Knicks series but we were “outclassed” for some reason
You said “everyone.”
The Atlanta Hawks kicked Miami’s ass in the play-in game.
The Chicago Bulls nearly beat them in the other one.
The Boston series was 7 games long, not 3.
And the NBA finals were lopsided.
But according to Early Bird, the Miami Heat “made everyone look bad.”
I am most likely in the minority here, but I think if I had to pick 1 of Cleveland, Miami, or us to be a top 3 in the East (regular season standings), I would pick Cleveland, and even if Dame winds up in Miami. They were 4th last year, they are young enough to grow together as a unit, not particularly injury-prone and their poor play-offs should spur them on rather than hinder them.
I suspect that Mil, Boston, and Philly will remain in the top 3 but lots of uncertainty: Mil has a new coach, Philly has a new coach + the Harden saga, Boston trading Smart for KP already is presenting issues and a poor run will immediately put the coach back on the hot seat.
As for us, I would hope for modest improvement on 47 wins. I would take 50 wins in a heartbeat.
BE I agree that CLE is a team to watch in the East. Strus and Niang were nice gets for them.
Still, they have serious defensive issues in their backcourt, and Spida is their only true shot creator. I just don’t have a lot of faith in their coach in masking their issues, but maybe he develops along with their young core. Put differently, I think a mastermind like Spo could do wonders with that roster.
I’m in the modest improvement boat, as well. I think 50 wins is in the cards.
What I’m not in is the perennial 55 win boat. Or the “this team is like Reggie Miller’s Pacers” boat.
If there’s any team from the 90s that this team compares to, it’s the Lenny Wilkens’ Hawks teams.
I think BE is right about the Cavs, too. We were a terrible matchup for them bc Mitch dominated their bigs, but there’s not a lot of Mitches out there so they should be fine.
IMO, the Miami series would have had a different outcome if Quickley was healthy and playing his best basketball. Quickley is very underrated. He’s just a bit inconsistent. When he’s “on”, if he’s not the best all around player on the team, he’s damn close. He’s the only player that’s a plus on both sides. When he’s hitting shots and playing with high energy on both sides the Knicks win. When he’s slumping or less than 100% the Knicks struggle. The next step for Quickley is consistency from outside. If he can become more consistent from 3 and keeps improving getting to the rim and finishing, he’s going to force himself into the starting lineup next to Brunson unless Grimes also takes a significant step up. If both happen, well, that’s a problem we all want.
If Cleveland is going to be a serious contender Mobley will have to come true in his superstar potential. Will he? What’s everyone’s take on him?
Given the additions the Cavs made this off season, they would be the favorite over us in a series. They addressed their weaknesses and a few of their very young promising players have playoff experience under their belt now. I’m expecting them to move forward more than us in this snapshot in time. What we have over them is assets to improve externally and not just internally. So we’ll see what happens before the season starts and at the trade deadline.
Hubert, what was your prediction on the Cavs series before it started? Did you think we’d win in 5 bc it was the perfect match up? I’m too lazy to look back and find that thread but I’m guessing the answer is no.
I don’t think we’re a lock to perennially win 55 games, be a top three east team next year or to to the conference finals. But I don’t think Al these other teams are so much better than us at all and I think the top teams from last year have a lot of question marks. That’s all. The total self assuredness of your negativity is what drives me crazy, especially when this team, coach and GM have proven their worth this last season and blasted through many of your past negative predictions.
Like if you blasted this team and had a super negative prediction to their future after Atlanta roasted us in the first round, shouldn’t you be reasonably optimistic now after we crushed the Cavs? I just don’t understand this pathological need to be negative and ask the team to “prove it” to you. Why? Cause they didn’t tank multiple seasons to get to this place?
I can see circumstances under which a rivalry could develop between us and the Cavs.
As for East teams being a lick to beat us last season, the only top team with a winning record against us last year was Milwaukee. It’s hard to say anyone was a mock either way.
Sorry, I meant lock, not mock
“Or the “this team is like Reggie Miller’s Pacers” boat.”
This is a deliberate misrepresentation of what was said (some things never change!)
“Reggie Miller’s Pacers” is an 18-year phenomenon. No one said that this team is comparable to the “peak” Larry Bird Pacers teams right now. That team had a core of grizzled veterans that had been together for years, which was pointed out last thread. The comparison was to the early 90’s version, when they had a young, improving team like we currently do. From that point, they continued to evolve and peaked at 58 wins without adding a single all-NBA-level player to their roster, and although they never were a bonafide favorite to win a chip, they certainly had a nice run as a legit contender, giving the dynastic Bulls all they could handle in 1998.
Here is how the Pacers did in the ’90s, starting with Reggie’s age 25 season:
1990-91: 41-41, lost in first round
1991-91: 40-42, lost in first round
1992-93: 41-41, lost in first round
1993-94: 47-35, lost in ECF
1994-95: 52-30, lost in ECF
1995-96: 52-30, lost in first round
1996-97: 39-43, missed playoffs
1997-98: 58-24, lost in ECF
1998-99: 33-17 (55 win pace), lost in ECF
1999-2000: 56-26, lost in finals
“If there’s any team from the 90s that this team compares to, it’s the Lenny Wilkens’ Hawks teams.”
Nice to throw out a comparison without any justification for it, beyond being unnecessarily dismissive and argumentative. Again, some things never change!
When Lenny Wilkens took over the Hawks, their starters were age 26, 31, 25, 32 and 34 (a washed Dominique, who was traded for Danny Manning, who was lost at season’s end to free agency.) They maintained a team largely of vets and had one decent season in 1996-97 on the backs of Mookie Blaylock, Steve Smith, Christian Laettner, Dikembe Mutombo, and Ty Corbin. with their best bench player being the immortal Eldridge Recasner.
The current Knicks have zero in common with that team.
The Miami series was competitive. We shot better than them, we outrebounded them and we got to the line more. They deserved to beat us despite that, but they didn’t beat us so badly that I think they’re a lock to be better than us next season.
As for the rest of the east, Regular Season Sixers probably beat us, but idk about playoff Sixers. The Bucks beat us if they’re healthy, but Miami didn’t beat a healthy Bucks. The Celtics probably beat us, but they should have beat Miami and didn’t so who knows. We had a good team I don’t know why some people don’t want to acknowledge that.
We had a pretty weird formula for success last year that relied heavily on limiting turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds. I’m curious to see how repeatable that is.
Defensively we weren’t very good at generating turnovers, but we’ll now have a full season of Hart and DDV, who are now the two best turnover-generating defenders on the team. So maybe that’s an area for some growth.
the heat beat the bucks with giannis missing most of the games… people conveniently forget that part like the heat shit on some full strength bucks team… no that did not happen… the bucks without giannis is probably not even a playoff team…. and the heat beat that team… good for them… but that’s not some monumental feat…
the only reason the heat series vs us went 6 was because butler got hurt and was missing in one of them and we very nearly lost that game too….. the heat also didn’t shoot impossibly good from 3 vs us and still managed a +4 netrtg differential vs us in the series…. it was not that close …
Swifty I predicted we’d win the Cavs series and take the Bucks to 7 games in round 2.
I also predicted Randle would bounce back and we’d have a very strong season last summer when most posters were despondent about the upcoming season. I ended up settling on 44 wins and the 7 seed, which probably would have been right if not for the Hart trade.
I predicted 48 wins the year before (got a little carried away that summer… Team Kemba forever).
And I think I was the only poster to predict we’d make the playoffs in Thibs’ first season. When everyone thought we were gonna crash in the second half of that year, I remained adamant that the team was going to continue to push forward.
Overall I’ve been very optimistic about the team, albeit critically. But you conflate criticism with negativity. That’s a you thing. I’m bullish, I’m just not crazy.
this is the most enjoyable usa roster i can remember watching…
a lot of that is jalen, mikal and jjj…I’ve been a fan of ingram’s since he was in LA…
antman is a real lively body 🙂
thinking about the embiid talk from a while ago…
I’d go all in on devin booker…jjj is another player I think can help win us a championship…
ha, we’ve been trying to sell the garden and ny as a destination- we just needed a flipping point guard showing out on our national team…
I believe other really good players are going to want to play with jalen in the future…in the garden…
Edit: oops, just remembered usa isn’t everyone’s home team 🙂
Out ORtg went from 117.3 in the season to 108.9 in the playoffs. It also went from 3rd best to 4th worst. And it didn’t feel fluky at all. Two teams figured us out pretty easily.
I think we can put up another good regular season but the same problems that plagued us in the playoffs last year will surely plague us again.
Hence the comp to Lenny Wilkens’ Hawks teams. Those guys always won games… they even won 57 one year and earned the 1 seed. But they were always an easy out; their shit didn’t work in the playoffs, either.
Loving all the Jalen clips on Twitter.
Bruh, I will acknowledge our team is good all day.
My issue with the small circle of you is that y’all are in complete denial about how good we are comparatively.
Take the Celtics, for example. The gulf between the Celtics and us was about as big as the gulf between us and the Wizards, and y’all sit here acting like we were a few bounces away from waltzing into the finals.
We’re good. They’re a lot better. So were the Sixers. So were the Bucks. And we’re sitting here acting like we’re gonna leapfrog all these teams because… because what, exactly? Because we added Donte DiVicenzo? Because Immanuel Quickley is young? You know Tyrese Maxey’s young, too, right? All those young guys on the Hawks might get better, too.
wow, so amazing that haliburton makes everyone else out on the floor look like they’re standing still…
it’s not that he’s super fast, he is fast though – it’s like he’s a step ahead of everyone else…
those nike uswnt ads have not aged well…
we probably have more in common with the 2021 hawks than any of the lenny wilkins hawks teams…. or any other team for that matter….
Again no one is saying we’re gonna leapfrog those teams. Just that their continued place at the top of the east is not assured bc all of them are aging or lost key pieces or are reaching points of potentially stagnating. That is all. You seem hell bent on believing that we will only stay the same or decline while these other teams will stay the same or improve. Our roster has multiple young players who can be better and no player so old that decline seems possible. Is al Hosford supposed to remain good forever? Is porzingis going to be healthy all year? Is harden gonna turn back the clock to 2015? Have the bucks gotten younger in any way?
None of these teams are assured of their place at the top, same with Miami. Yet only the Knicks, who have a younger roster than all of those teams, were a fluke who can’t improve at all. GTFOOH.
It’s weird. For years the optimists were the ones being unrealistic on this board. I feel like that’s flipped.
Mobley’s on the precipice… and it could come this year… he’s already developed into one of the league’s best defenders and that’s truly very rare at his age…
a lot of the questions are on offense…. it’s developing and all the markers are there for another step…. he’s going to need a midrange game to be a focal point… but he can continue being a play finisher and play around the rim with various hooks and drop steps and be effective.. especially if garland takes another step and they gain some chemistry on the pnr…. but he probably won’t be a star playing that way…. so he needs to shoot a bit better which i think he’s capable of and probably comes within the next few years….
and again you’d be wrong in your overzealousness…. it’s quite the pattern amongst this demo…
Nope. I said I expect us to get better.
But you’re in denial about the landscape. If we take a step forward and the Celtics take a step back, for example, they’re still two steps ahead of us.
Two, really: IQ and Grimes. But the front office just spent a shit ton of money on DDV and Hart, and don’t those guys play the same position?
Apparently, the Braves and Mets decided to play football in game one of a doubleheader today. Braves won 21-3.
Daniel Vogelbach with the FG for the Mets.
🙂
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38180876/76ers-ending-trade-talks-james-harden-sources-say
Woj says Sixers are done trying to trade Harden and want him to come to camp. This will go well.
Seen this movie before. Never a happy ending.
Get ready for fat James
‘Our roster has multiple young players who can be better’
‘Two, really: IQ and Grimes.’
I thought I had the job of shitting on RJ.
I mean, yeah the Celtics are better than us. They also got beat by Miami, who are not. (although who knows, they might get Dame)
Mets are -24 in runs scored.
Not for the season. For the DAY.