Knicks Morning News (2023.07.07)

Just to clarify, RJ wasn’t “great” in the playoffs, but he was good enough to make an impression around the league that the best is yet to come. He didn’t shoot any better from 3 (32.8%) or from 2 (49.5%) than he did during the regular season, but after a slow start he was a visibly dominant player until laying an egg in Game 6 vs. the Heat. Not many 22yo’s could do what he did for 7 of the 11 games. And guess what? He was in uniform. You can pretty much bank on him being in the lineup for 70+ games and the playoffs.

His contract will never be hard to move, and might be the key to a trade for a guy like Embiid or Giannis or Doncic. He’s a no-brainer hold for me, at least for next season, given the guys we’re talking about acquiring at inflated prices…LaVine, PG13, OG…

Now if the price on OG was lower, I could see biting, but not for RJ plus multiple firsts, no way.

Toppin is on an Exhibit 10 deal, meaning that he is training camp fodder. He apparently suffered a minor injury that will keep him out of summer league. He is NOT on a two-way deal, as per Katz:

https://twitter.com/FredKatz/status/1677072939890651136

“And yeah, Randle has deservedly made two all-NBA teams. There are all kinds of valid questions about his role on a contender, his playoff performance, etc. but there’s clear cut proof of concept for Julius Randle: Good NBA Player.”

But at this time last year, you were one of the most ardent advocates for using sweetener for dumping Randle. I said at the time that that would be an incredibly short-sighted move, and for largely the same reasons I am against trading RJ as salary filler in a star deal right now…that he is at a low valuation point that is much more likely to improve than stay where it is or drop further. I think risking that RJ’s value will be higher as we go forward is a good bet, just as it was with Julius, albeit for somewhat different reasons.

There’s obviously some risk associated with the belief that the best is yet to come with RJ, but I am of the mind that it is a risk well worth taking. He just turned 23. I’m not buying that he has stabilized at this level, regardless of his prior 4 years at age 19-22. I think his good/great games will become more frequent and his bad games less frequent, and that will lift his advanced stats, just like the 7-4 good-to-bad game ratio lifted them. And if I couldn’t make a make right now that factors in a higher ceiling, then I would just keep him and bet on his upside increasing his value, both to us and to other teams.

Put differently, if you are going to consider RJ’s last four years as determinative, then do the same for Paul George. What has he done in the last 4 years to warrant exchanging RJ plus multiple other assets for him?

“Tired. Hence my slip. That, or just old age.”

lol my wife sent me out grocery shopping yesterday with a written list of less than ten items. She wrote the most important item in LARGE CAPITAL LETTERS. When I got home, guess which item I forget to buy?

“I specifically said I would not do this multiple times. I was in favor of dumping him in asset neutral fashion. We didn’t and I’m glad we didn’t in hindsight because I think he’s returned to having actual trade value, albeit lower trade than his AIO box score metrics would indicate due to various fit issues, but I was always against using sweetener.”

As I recall, you repeatedly referred to him as “the worst contract in the association,” “the most detrimental to winning,” and an albatross. You repeatedly expressed that you wanted to dump him, and just about everyone knew that it would cost assets to do so. So I don’t know what you meant in an asset-neutral deal means in that context…are you saying that you would not have used 2 seconds? One of our protected firsts? Would you have been upset if Leon did that? My guess is that you would have been thrilled.

It’s pretty clear that you still consider RJ to be a detrimental player. So what do you think is fair value in a non-urgent salary dump? One unprotected first? A couple of seconds?

It’s a relevant question because that’s what we are really discussing here, isn’t it? What should we get back for RJ in a trade? I mean, we just got 2 shitty seconds for Obi, who I believe some here think was better than RJ. Would you have traded him for what John Collins yielded…a single second and Rudy Gay? I mean statistically, Collins was waaaay better than RJ…so it’s not a crazy thought…

My point is, if that’s RJ’s current value, you bet on his upside rather than dump his salary at the current market value., even if it’s for a better player. In that sense, it’s a similar situation to Julius….in fact, I think dumping RJ at age 23 is an even worse idea than it would have been to dump Julius after his worst season. And using his age 19-22 stats to justify the salary dump would be as short-sighted as suggesting that Julius was in some kind of physical decline and couldn’t get to the rim anymore, as was done last year at this time.

I would not trade RJ right now for anything less than the value of an unprotected first from a likely lottery team. I doubt that his value will ever be lower than it is right at this time. If he plays next year like he is right now, some GM will still be enamored with a 23yo to give you what ATL got for Collins. After what he showed in the playoffs, you take that risk every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Scoot hurt his shoulder, will not return

Miller has a beautiful stroke

“Same with Miami- put RJ at the top of the scouting report and he’s cooked.”

RJ played really well in 4 of the 6 Miami games, including Game 5.