[news.google.com] — Sunday, June 25, 2023 7:11:00 AM
Brunson Burner! Knicks’ Star Roasts Ex-Rival, Teammate Sports Illustrated
[news.google.com] — Sunday, June 25, 2023 6:34:19 AM
Hart, Knicks to Extend Option Deadline – Sources – GVS SPORTS Global Village space
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Knicks and Josh Hart extend player option deadline until Thursday New York Post
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Knicks make big Josh Hart decision amid NBA free agency ClutchPoints
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 9:52:53 PM
Sources: Josh Hart, Knicks to extend player option deadline ABC News
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 9:37:00 PM
Josh Hart, Knicks agree on player option extension Yahoo Sports
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 9:34:34 PM
Money Talks: Knicks, Josh Hart Agree to Extend Player Option Deadline Yardbarker
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 9:23:00 PM
Josh Hart, Knicks Agree To Push Back Option Deadline RealGM.com
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 9:22:00 PM
Sources – Josh Hart, Knicks to extend player option deadline – ESPN ESPN
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 9:13:39 PM
Money Talks: Knicks, Josh Hart Agree to Extend Player Option … Sports Illustrated
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 9:11:38 PM
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[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 8:48:00 PM
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[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 5:48:33 PM
Derrick Rose to Lakers? Knicks decline his $15M option, becomes a free agent Marca English
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 5:36:59 PM
The Knicks reportedly won’t pick up Derrick Rose’s option for 2023-24 Posting and Toasting
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 4:00:07 PM
Chicago Bulls Rumors: Zach LaVine against trade to New York Knicks Da Windy City
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 3:35:00 PM
The Future of the Knicks Roster: Key Moves to Watch New York Post
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 3:22:00 PM
Reports – Derrick Rose to hit free agency after Knicks decline option – ESPN ESPN
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 3:15:32 PM
EXCLUSIVE: Knicks Champions Attend Tribeca Premiere of Bill … Sports Illustrated
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 2:41:00 PM
Knicks decline Derrick Rose’s contract option as tenure appears to be over New York Post
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 2:32:00 PM
Knicks Decline Team Option For Derrick Rose RealGM.comReports – Derrick Rose to hit free agency after Knicks decline option – ESPN ESPNLakers can finally sign long-rumored target after Knicks’ latest move Lakeshow Life
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 2:23:43 PM
NBA Free Agency: Warriors’ Donte DiVincenzo to Knicks? Sports Illustrated
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 2:21:26 PM
Report: Knicks declining option for PG Derrick Rose The Albany Herald
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 1:55:44 PM
NBA rumors: Knicks decline former MVP’s team option FanSided
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 1:54:20 PM
Knicks Decline Derrick Rose’s Contract; Former MVP to Become … Sports Illustrated
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 1:37:26 PM
Knicks make major Derrick Rose contract decision ClutchPoints
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 1:32:01 PM
Knicks Won’t Pick Up Derrick Rose Option for 2023?24, per Report Sports Illustrated
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 12:54:10 PM
Knicks Rumors: Derrick Rose’s $15.6M Contract Option to Be Declined, Will Be UFA Bleacher Report
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 12:12:34 PM
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[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 11:48:20 AM
Knicks: Jalen Brunson roasted about NBA Draft outfit from 2018 ClutchPoints
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 11:11:47 AM
Post-Draft Trade Idea Lands Knicks Damian Lillard Sports Illustrated
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 10:00:51 AM
Stephen A. Smith can’t stop tampering with the New York Knicks Daily Knicks
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 9:31:07 AM
Mike Lupica: Knicks need to take a big swing on Zion Williamson New York Daily News
[news.google.com] — Saturday, June 24, 2023 7:54:00 AM
Before Wembanyama hit the NBA draft, there was Fr?d?ric Weis – ESPN ESPN
113 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.06.25)”
Djphan, you cannot just gloss over the uncertainty of the draft and measure a front office against the best player available in hindsight. Even with the extra information that front offices do have, there is no evidence of one of them simply getting it ‘right’. Even for perceptually good drafting franchises you have to take into account the likelihood of a given team to be lucky for a certain period of time.
Heck, with our limited information I don’t think djphan is better than Chad Ford. At some point you have to quantify your results and back up your claims. I make win predictions before the season starts, I could take the average absolute error and compare with Pelton or Hollinger or whatever other metric is out there. How are you quantifying your draft predictions and why do you consider yourself better than Chad Ford?
It is obvious that Rose would be mr. Smarty Pants if Hart turns into Lebron 2.0, the same way that he would be mr. Smarty Pants if he drafts the next unknown gem Jokic 2.0 before anyone else. And perhaps I am going crazy here, but my guess is that with he chose the option that was better with the information he had, which coincidentally agrees with the notion that the 23rd pick does not give on average a player of Josh Hart’s value. Perhaps, there is a fantastic drafting team that will leave Rose’s (and other franchises) drafting strategy in the mud, and is bound to be champions for the next decade based on their sheer awesomeness. But until there is proof of that, I will consider Rose’s decisions at least reasonable. Besides, the different connections with Josh Hart makes me think that Rose was more likely to make a good decision on the trade that other franchises (although having a connection does not give you decision-making powers on itself, just ask Divac about Doncic)
Using Hubert’s accurate list of “bot” draft picks (*) as the benchmark (as the S&P is typically the hedge/mutual fund benchmark), Leon is underperforming.
He’s generating negative alpha. He’d be on “do not invest” lists of pension funds and other large institutional investors.
He’s making do with a holdover quintessential mezzanine asset and a free agent he relationship-ed his way into who’s pretty significantly outperforming his ex ante consensus market value. And some low-ceiling, high floor, low risk hustlebunnies. The Josh Hart trade was like paying 50x earnings for Campbell Soup common. There’s no real GM-driven foundation there.
(*) I don’t remember the actual list, but the benchmark technically should be the pre-draft consensus pick at the various slots. I assume that’s the list.
Imagine not liking players because they try hard.
The view from the mezzanine is quite nice.
Josh Hart collects crucial rebounds. Numbers and eye test bear that fact out. He has an incredibly good relationship with our team’s best player. I would not play him 40 minutes, but I want him on the floor with 2 minutes left and the game in doubt.
Judging any of our players by the Miami series is not reasonable. The injuries and conditioning of our team by round two was being tested in a way that almost no players outside of Brunson had experienced. The mystery is gone now.
again it’s a free country… but i do not believe for a second that’s the standard anyone truly has in this situation if it were anything else.. you absolutely judge everyone based on their results… and maybe in certain isolated incidents you might excuse certain things.. but eventually those outcomes need to be delivered… i can speculate why that’s the case here but that’s a different discussion….
tried to find a more favorable read of your perspective but couldn’t get there. it reads like you’ve decided to soak obstinately in selection bias because you believe some gms can be elite drafters and everyone is full of shit when they feign concern about mixing hindsight with outcome vol. and also bc david griffin might get fired.
if josh hart does suddenly morph into lebron, don’t let the chirping distract you. the great betting line in the sky would barely inch toward leon suddenly being a basketball savant. but it’s a low utility analogy, here, only capturing the general difficulty of untangling luck and skill from volatile results, ignoring selection bias entirely. josh hart, for all his wonky shot mechanics, has the acute benefit from a sampling perspective of being a particular person. we can’t wait a year and sift through ten or twenty josh hartish players and mistakenly credit leon for the best performer. so if he succeeds wildly at least those fooled are fooled by the walk of the right drunkard.
it’s true that people’s fates in the world will often get determined by the vicissitudes of the roulette wheel when results are noisy and samples are modest. and it’s even true that this will be made worse by implicit selection bias in some cases. but that’s not a reason to worship the outcomes. it’s a reason to pray.
Josh Hart was converting 3PAs at a rate of 30% when we traded for him. He hit 52% of his 3PAs after. That is the tiny chance of striking oil, and it seemed to factor highly into the trade grade. I don’t see why a second oil strike should be treated differently.
Maybe go back to bed for a few more hours, mate.
Oh dear…
https://twitter.com/Vator_H_Town/status/1672741520867315714
Results of trades are evidence, but they don’t start becoming meaningful until the sample sizes are large enough to be statistically significant.
When we are discussing a handful of drafts and even trades, randomness/luck plays a huge roll in the outcomes. The results don’t always demonstrate superior or inferior skill. An exception might be someone that does a public analysis of a couple of players BEFORE THE FACT explaining why the consensus is wrong using insights not commonly known or used and then after the fact hits the nail on the head. Then you be more certain his insights have value not fully reflected in the market for players and picks.
With his draft picks, E. You can’t dismiss the Brunson signing. Overall, he has generated alpha on that alone.
All the possible extremes of a draft like finding a Jokić in the 2nd round are already built into the estimates of the intrinsic value of draft picks.
Those possibilities are NOT ignored!!!
Those probabilities are fairly well known. We may not have enough data for each individual draft position, but if you group them into ranges when appropriate there is reasonable enough data to make good estimates.
There are now two Hart trade branches, btw.
The new one with Strat, ptmilo, etc is a more reasonable discussion of the short term v long term complications.
But I was directing my argument at The Circle Jerk Club, whose stated position was that Leon had made a trade so perfect, with so little downside, and that it was so obvious that anyone who failed to agree with their take was a “hater”.
I am not making the argument that the trade was bad, just that it was very expensive, and perhaps we can’t afford it.
For what it’s worth, I was pretty impressed watching Jaylen Martin’s highlights. Yes, it’s an unimpressive level of competition, but he’s definitely a quick-twitch athlete with a high motor and a “hustlebunny” attitude. He’s already active defensively and has a nice looking stroke. His biggest negative imo is his footwork, both on offense and defense. It causes him to be off balance on some of his jumpers and and get caught off guard on defense. This is fixable but can take years of work (Quickley, for instance, is still working on it, although he’s come a long way.) I don’t see a ton of passing skills in his future, but his ceiling could be an active 3/D wing who rebounds and has good driving ability.
You are making up a guy to get mad at
Adding marginal wins to bad team whose goal is to tank and maximize draft position makes no sense.
Adding marginal wins to a team that is positioned to be a playoff team (like us), that still upside from development, and that still has tradable picks and assets, makes perfect sense as long as the player is likely to help both short and long term. Josh Hart IS part of the long term plan.
The tanking mindset stopped being applicable to the Knicks once they added RJ and opened cap space to try to add good younger players in other ways. Once they added Randle, they were switching to a draft, trade, free agent path. Some people may not like that path, but it’s hard to argue it’s not working. We have a good young team and several paths to contention – including a lot of draft picks – regardless of whether they use them or trade them.
You could be right. I have had 9 flights in 5 days, so to be grumpy is an aspiration right now. I fell asleep in a terminal the other day and dreamt Geo was sitting next to me, offering me a joint. That was nice.
Josh Hart was converting 3PAs at a rate of 30% when we traded for him. He hit 52% of his 3PAs after. That is the tiny chance of striking oil, and it seemed to factor highly into the trade grade. I don’t see why a second oil strike should be treated differently.
it shouldn’t
In the biggest possession of the year, Josh Hart was wide open at the three point line for a go ahead triple … and his college mate point guard decided against passing him the ball, in lieu of trying to thread a pass to a cutter through a mosh pit lane .. .that was mosh-pitted in large measure because Josh Hart was on the floor.
He’s a Knick because he fits the profile of their churlish, stick-in-the-mud head coach and he “works” within said churlish’s coach’s Moneyball schemes. (*) It’s central casting mezzanine stuff. I don’t confuse that with anything real. Others can — it’s a free country.
Bad trade.
That’s what I meant, yes, using your list as the benchmark measuring stick.
Tough to say. It was obviously a great signing, but unlike the S&P, free agent prices aren’t particularly efficient — though they often are. Had Brunson been properly priced as he would have been if he was an S&P stock, Leon would have been priced out of the market.
Do you generate alpha by seeking out the mezzanine and proudly, open and notoriously, planting your flag there? Debatable.
But Leon gets credit for Brunson.
(There’s also no real equivalent of the mezzanine asset in the S&P; i.e., an asset that’s on its face “better” and more productive than other assets, let still less appealing. That’s an interesting discussion, but not really within the scope of this particular one.)
(*) In terms of that term, let’s have no more fainting couch about it, shall we? Association GMs have come right out recently and said essentially, “He works for the Knicks, wouldn’t work for other association teams.” At this point, it’s settled precedent.
I also think the Rose contract situation hints that no “big” deal is likely. I considered his expiring construct an asset, especially if a LaVine trade became likely because we’d be sending him back to Chicago. That would have made it an easier sell to those fans.
I’m revisiting a De’Andre Hunter trade in my head. I dismissed it quickly yesterday, but maybe I should do some more research into the injuries that sort of derailed his progress. I was a fan of his coming out of college and early on thought I was going to be right. The disappointing development since may have as much to do with injury as they do anything else. If he’s finally healthy, he could take a nice jump up for the Knicks.
Can we keep Josh Hart in perspective?
No one on planet earth ever said he was a star or the final piece to a Knicks contender. He’s a high quality ROLE player that fit a need and that can be part of the rotation of a contender. So he’s well worth having on any team as long as the salary is reasonable. IMO, the intrinsic value of what we gave up for him was LESS than his value as a player INCLUDING all those extremely low probably home run possibilities you get via draft in the 20ish range.
(ptmilo I’m highlighting you but I’m not directing this at you.)
This happened!! Josh Hart did morph into LeBron for nearly two months, and people did declare this made Leon a savant! That’s the whole argument here.
Should I have ignored the chirping? 100%
Will I let it go? Sigh. Fine.
They already have a low-ceiling hustlebunny role player. They didn’t need another one, especially at retail and costing a 1.
They should not be building this team in the image of Tom Thibodeau. That road leads to Palookaville.
He’s not “kept in perspective” on the positive end.
Find someone who loves you like E loves using “hustlebunny” as an insult.
E you said Hart was going to come here and clog up the paint because he was in terminal decline and shooting 30% from 3 and then he made 52% of his threes and we went to the second round of the playoffs. Try to keep some perspective. The trade was okay and worked out better than expected, and then Josh didn’t take a 3 in one game in the playoffs. If he was a great scorer we wouldn’t have been able to get him for a middling first round pick.
Remember when that guy got hurt and Josh had to play 46 minutes in the clinching game of our first playoff series win in a decade? Having a bunch of good NBA players is really useful. We absolutely did not need Josh Hart, but he’s good to have.
He did come here and clog up the paint.
Example: Penultimate possession, Game 6.
What did we see?
oof
You know I am starting to have doubts about how much you really value accountability
and like Josh Hart isn’t even that good. I probably wouldn’t have traded for him, but it wasn’t that big of a deal and it worked out very well at least int he short term. I don’t know why we have to keep arguing about this. If he was a great offensive player you couldn’t get him for a first.
“What did we see?”
We saw him come to the Knicks and clog the lane, just as feared. We also saw the coach play him and his fellow LCHB way too much in the playoffs—lowering the team’s ceiling, again as feared.
As with all the rest, not exactly sure where the mic drop gotcha is here.
As to why he’s argued about now, first of all not sure why he’s some kind of special sacred cow who never gets questioned, but it’s obvious why now — we just saw the tangible impact of the draft cost, and he’s about to get paid retail.
E what was the Knicks record after they traded for Hart?
Who cares?
The season’s over, they didn’t contend, they aren’t projected to contend next year, and I’d rather have Cam Whitmore and the $20 million off the cap.
This roster isn’t good enough to be a second apron team. You get to the second apron by paying the Josh Harts of the world $20M.
Lol
I see no reason to throw shade at the Circle Jerks in this argument. They’re one of the greatest American punk bands of all time, especially the original lineup of the early 80’s. And Lucky Lehrer is/was kind of the Buddy Rich of Rock and Roll drummers…
Camper Van Beethoven mentioned the Circle Jerks in “ Where the Hell is Bill?” (“… Maybe he went to go ride his skateboard// Maybe he went to see the Circle Jerks”)
No one can argue the Knicks haven’t gotten excellent value from Hart so far. If Kris Murray hits 40% from three and Hart hits 30% next season, that will invite legit criticism. If anyone else picked after Kris plays well, that might reflect poorly on Leon as well. At the time of the trade we thought we’d have two picks coming. So, not being in the draft and, instead getting Obi’s brother, is a little boring. I’m a big fan of Hart. (He does more than shoot threes obviously) NBA seems like a game of calculated big risks. Not like the stock market.
Sounds like a few people are afraid of the D Rose trade effect. Remember? Rose was so perfect and instrumental to this team’s success in the season we traded for him, but not so much after. IMO, Rose didn’t have the same effect in the following season because we needed a PG to emerge BADLY in that season, and he was coming off injury this past season. Luckily we have Brunson, so the Rose effect didn’t matter as much. We don’t have to worry about that with Hart. Both he and the team understands his role, and he THRIVES in it. He’s also younger and not coming off of injury. My only real concern with Hart coming back, is the possibility of an overpay- because that would make it harder to retain Quickley. That said, I really hope he elects to opt in, then sign an extension so we can go after a bench scorer, extend Quickley, and possibly make a good trade. What I’d love just as much would be Obi coming back less stiff in his movements and a better ball handler with the ability to play both forward spots.
In a vacuum sure, you want Whitmore and $20M, but this is kind of like the Taylor Swift black metal argument again. It seems incorrect to focus on the Josh Hart trade in a vacuum like that: we’re not doing the asset-collection rebuild in which you patiently wait for Whitmore to become a perennial 1 BPM player like Hart. We’re doing incrementalism here, we’re doing the hybrid thing. It’s not my preferred method, as I have stated about eighty billion times. But it is what we’re doing, and in that context the Hart trade makes some sense.
The more compelling argument to me is that we may be bumping into the ceiling of the hybrid approach here, as we’re seeing first hand how difficult it is to escape the mezzanine given our relatively short stack of assets. We’ll see what Leon is able to pull off— he’s already exceeded my expectations so I’ll give him some benefit of the doubt despite the fact that he’s not building the team the way I would have preferred.
The season’s over, they didn’t contend, they aren’t projected to contend next year
They didn’t contend? Did you actually watch a playoff game? Possibly not since Thibs was coaching and Cam Reddish was unavailable. Troll on!
Come in, take off your shoes
Laughing with my feet in your lap
Like you were my closest friend
Here’s to all of the plans we tried to make that didn’t happen
Cause we lost track of time again
You always came to play my music in my garage
The only thing that makes me happy
How’d we end up on the floor, anyway?” you say
“Your roommate’s cheap-ass screw-top rosé, that’s how”
Cause there’s always rubber between us and the ground
Took my dog to put her down
She wagged her tail the whole way there
I see you every day now
— Taylor Sprain
I think the Hart trade was a good trade, but don’t complain about the merits of discussing it, i think both sides have a point. On one side we did get better faster, and we were able to check the “win a playoff series” item on the to do list. That’s why i like the trade. On the other side, we could’ve waited and maybe have a player younger with more potential than Hart, on a cost controlled contract. But how long would it take for that player to produce, how long would it delay the items on the list (win 1 playoff series, win 2 playoff series, and so on) ?
Oh, and the Hart trade at least has finally put to rest the incinerated pick debate. Hallelujah, my brothers! 😀
@Cyber
It looks like finally our friend Micic intends to come to the League 🙂
Now it’s about deciding if OKC keeps him or sells his right to another team.
He and his agent are working on it with Presti and Co., it appears the deadline for a decision is July 20, if nothing materialises he’ll stay in Europe.
That’s very good news, Max. He’d be great on the Knicks. Come on Leon, send OKC the worst* protected pick for his rights.
* – it’s the Washington pick, i think, given the latest developments.
The incineration debate was better.
I know that being a Knicks fan in the 21st Century has made some of you surly, and lugubrious, and unable to recognize and relate to pleasure. But as a member of the far end of the Knicks pessimism spectrum myself, I can say, objectively, that the Josh Hart trade was a good one. He helped make a squalid team fun and relevant seemingly for the first time since dirt was born. Concocting an alternative outcome and cloaking it in hindsight is beneath even the lamest posters on this blog. You all are making reub proud.
I consider the squalid history of the franchise a sunk cost, and not so much a reason to change standards. YMMV.
They went to 6 games in the second round against the Eastern Conference finals representative
Yeah, that’s not contention. Non-contenders through the years have done that. The ’84 Knicks took the champion Celtics to 7 in the second round and weren’t contenders. Not even worth litigating.
it’s not an either/or scenario tho… you could’ve signed hart in the offseason! EVEN IF you deem that a mega impossibility… there’s donte divencenzo… there’s brown…. there’s any number of guys that could approximate hart…. is anybody claiming that hart is super duper special? no right? so why is it that the choice HAS TO BE exclusively hart vs a draft pick then? there’s no reason why both can’t be a choice unless we’re really all about getting hart no matter what and no matter the price… and i’m pretty sure that’s where some folks have cornered themselves into….
not directing that at you jk but just using the question to make that last point…
i’m not sure if pt is trolling by throwing the dictionary at me… but i think the use of selection bias overlaps with this point so i’ll use it as a proxy…
nobody is glossing over the uncertainty of the draft… the draft is hard… not everyone gets everything … and nobody is expected to get everything right… but the name of the game is to get the best player available…. or otherwise attain value and maximize your opportunities… some teams don’t even get opportunities in the draft….
if you trade out of the draft entirely…. you’re going to be judged on your return…. we’ve done this with the eddy curry trade… or the antonio mcdyess… was it unfortunate that mcdyess broke his knee in literally the first 10 minutes? yea that’s bad luck isn’t it? was that factored into why that was a bad deal? yes of course! he had a knee injury!
was cam whitmore dropping foreseen? no of course not…. but when you trade out of a pick you’re not only responsible for the things that can be foreseen… because hwen you trade out of a pick you’re forgoing anything ever positive happening with that pick…. including someone valuable dropping… including a handful of guys who could turn into all stars…. you don’t get to cherrypick the handful of guys you deem appropriate and that’s that…
you’re basically saying we pick josh hart vs the field… that’s generally not a great bet to be making…. and someone valuable dropping is just one reason why…. someone turning out better is another… and the fact that you can just sign josh hart or his equivalent outright without giving up anything is another…
ok first i never said i was better than him… that’s generally because he hasn’t put anything out for the last 8 years so i’m not sure where you think i made that claim…. and i post my big board every year for the last 8 years..
if you want to step into the arena you’re more than welcome to backtest any of them…. you’re also more than welcome to contribute… my top 10s are generally pretty good despite some pretty egregious misses… by winshares i’m outperforming generally but you might have other observations and i’m curious what you find….
but if you make accusations you should perform and show your work before you do…. but it’s a free country… we can be assholes to each other if you prefer that approach….
The Knicks are 15th in 2024 championship odds on Fanduel at 50-1. They aren’t a contender. The 2023 playoffs were fun, but it’s now back to reality time.
they had the second best offense in the NBA, you’re just making shit up.
I guess you mean they played because people got hurt? Nobody wants Josh Hart playing 46 minutes a game. Considering you thought the teams ceiling was getting eliminated in the first round of the playoffs I once again don’t know what you’re even arguing about.
when your’e a hammer everything is a nail… and when you like the hart trade… everything seems like a concoction.. yes…
but the great thing about the truth is that it will be there whether you shake your head at it or not….
This doesn’t feel like a chip contending team right now, because we don’t have a superstar and it’s virtually impossible to win a chip without one. If Leon can’t acquire that superstar in the next couple of offseasons, that’s not a great look. That’s where I’m at. We’re not in a bad position per se, but the hardest part of the job isn’t done yet.
This is still more enjoyable than watching Jason Smith and the Wear Bear
If Leon made no trades and simply took the highest player available on the last ESPN mock draft using picks either acquired by someone else or automatically conveyed:
2020: Obi Toppin at 8, Malachi Flynn at 27
2021: Keon Johnson at 19, Cam Thomas at 21, Sharife Cooper at 32
2022: Ousmane Dieng at 11, Trevor Keels (funnily enough) at 42
2023: Nick Smith Jr. at 23
Not that it’s a particularly high bar, but I think real Leon is outperforming Bot Leon.
You’re not taking Josh Hart vs the field, because we can only draft one guy. The odds are probably very good that someone from say 18 on down in the draft is going to be much better than Hart, but NBA history says nobody is good at knowing for sure who that guy is.
Now do Leon vs Knickerblogger Hive Mind
But you cannot only take into account unforeseen “good” outcomes, but also bad ones, like Whitmore maybe having some kind of chronic injury or perhaps being a bust. Michael Porter Jr. falling unforeseen, but he was a risky pick because of his injuries. What if he was out of the league by now with a back injury, that would not count too?
If we have an average drafting team, Josh Hart is more valuable than the 23rd pick. We would need to be very good at drafting for that pick to be more valuable than Josh Hart, and not every year you find late picks worth that much.
And I am not really sure how do we sign Josh Hart in FA if we dont trade for him. Not to mention than having him playing for us this season gives us quite a lot of information to make decisions in the future (players moving from one team to another dont always pan out)
but those aren’t mutually exclusive! you don’t have to pick hart vs the pick… you can have both! like do you think i’m talking crazy that we could have someone equivalent to hart and possibly even hart himself AND the pick? if you think that’s an impossibility then we are just in two different realities… and that’s the reason why this discussion is in the toilet with so many people…. reasonable people can at least acknowledge that i hope or people are just gonna soapbox this discussion to death…..
for the josh hart vs the field part of the discussion… you don’t have to get every pick right every time… that’s crazy… nobody is making that claim… but when you trade out you NEVER EVER EVER get a consequential player if you keep doing that for guys like josh hart….
and if you say.. we would never have even picked haliburton.. or jalen williams… or jalen johnson… or desmond bane or whitmore… or whoever… i mean isn’t that an indictment on the front office also? the point isn’t that we missed out on ALL those guys… altho a good front office could probably get a couple of them… it’s the fact that we didn’t get ANY of them…. and ANY (ex-whitmore ) of them would be really really good right now… better than josh hart right ?
and what’s the reverse of that? what do we miss out on exactly when NOT trading out for josh hart? were those… let me check my notes… 2.999 games that we better with josh hart… really worth that? ok we don’t sign josh hart either… is there nobody on the free agent market as good as hart? is that the claim we’re making?
It’s not clear that Cam Whitmore would’ve been available with the pick regardless
Yeah, of course that’s possible. I probably wouldn’t have done the Hart trade. But it’s also possible to not make that trade, not sign Hart, and draft someone who sucks. And at least for the draft pick that’s the more likely outcome.
Hart’s not just some random guy, he’s a guy who fit our roster last year pretty well. We badly needed rebounding help, it was good to have someone who Thibs would play instead of RJ, and he got us points on the break that nobody outside of Obi was really getting. As JK keeps saying this team was, for better or for worse, trying to be good. Look at the wing FA class, it’s bleak.
As for the overall draft, yeah I’d like to have more picks. We also did draft one of the best players in the 2020 draft with the 25th pick and one of the best players in the 2021 draft with the 25th pick. McBride and Simms are at least reasonably good where they were drafted.
yes of course… that’s all accounted for in however you calculate EV for a given draft slot at any point in time…. but there’s a difference between saying that and saying… oh you know we would’ve picked a bad player anyway… yea that happens sometimes… but usually there’s some sort of urgency like you’re contending for titles to have to make that choice for players like hart… we’re no where near there! we have a chance at a good player! take that chance!
and punting picks… that’s a repeat occurrence! this is not some isolated incident! we have a good idea on what we missed out on and it’s not good! and excusing that by saying shrug it would’ve turned out bad anyway… i’m sorry that’s pretty race to the bottom type of circular logic….
you don’t have to be moved by any of this… i’m sure if i say the sky is blue people will tell me josh hart would never have signed with us….. but i sure hope you can understand some of this….
do you also walk out your door.. think that you’re gonna get hit by a bus and go back in every time?
Dude, just stop. It is very much within most people’s power to avoid buses in the street… it’s almost always pretty easy. It is very difficult, as you said, to pick a good player in the draft, even for “experts.”
I can’t believe I had to type that out but here we are. DRed, I wish I had even an ounce of your patience.
Also, just for clarification, the Knicks didn’t think they were “trading out of the draft.” They, like basically every person, didn’t think the Mavs would be flaming hot garbage and then would tank the last game to keep their well-earned #10 pick. In fact, Leon was being prudent by betting on his own team versus Cuban’s crew, but things went much worse than expected in Dallas.
This just in: Drafting 12th and 19th in the same draft is permitted under association rules.
I think some of you are still underselling that we were six wins from the NBA finals. I mean that’s definitely a bit flukey, but so is getting a star player 19th in the draft or whatever. We had a very, very good season.
Not doing this as some kind of brag, it’s just a fun and interesting exercise. I actually have no idea what the results look like as I’m typing this.
Bot Leon with TNFH’s big board: Tyrese Haliburton, Tyrell Terry, Jalen Johnson, Jaden Springer, Jared Butler, Tari Eason, Leonard Miller
Real Leon definitely has better picks at the margins, but Bot Leon with TNFH’s board probably wins solely due to Haliburton.
I am always in favor of making as many draft picks as possible. If I was running a team my entire back bench would be players on their rookie contracts.
But I also know that Rose was probably not about to add two 1st round picks with guaranteed contracts to this team. If you want to argue whether Leon should be fired and a more draft-focused approach is the way to go I am with you. Sign me up for that. Unfortunately, that does not seem to be happening anytime soon.
So with Rose at the helm, I really liked the Hart trade. It looked like we were going to add Hart, a player I really like, and still have a draft pick in the mid-first round. That is why I personally upvoted the trade. I had a feeling we were most likely going to trade our 2nd 1st anyway and Hart seemed like a great outcome.
What I did not foresee was Dallas falling out of the playoffs and keeping their pick. That has made the Hart trade worse and was unfortunate. I am still very happy to have him on the team and happy with our playoff run but I am quite unhappy we did not draft anyone this year.
No one here is happy to not have first-round picks, no one here is hoping we keep trading out of the first round to pick up a bunch of vets or future picks. I feel like there are a lot of strawmen being built and hands being rung when no one is endorsing ignoring the draft.
yes i realize it’s not a 100% completely 1:1 apples to apples apt analogy.. i too do not seek out buses when i cross the street believe it or not..
but the larger point is that only looking at the downside of things is a very bad heuristic…. and if you can’t acknowledge the upside then yea every decision to you is going to look pretty terrible…. hence hammer/nail…
is that more clear?
Fwiw, Hart was significantly better than Donte by DPM LEBRON & EPM.
He was marginally to slightly better by BPM & RAPTOR.
Hollinger’s BORD$ values Hart at $28M, which is way too high but he’s certainly worth more than the MLE that some think is the price. (Donte is $16M).
There is value to shooting in the playoffs so you need to ask how much that counts.
Anyways, there’s a strong argument that Hart is better by a sizable amount.
i think the false assumption is that nobody or only a small group believe this… that’s not the case…. and it’s not a strawman….
the whole reason we’re having these arguments is because people think that not having first rd picks is no big deal… a large group of people on this blog have said those exact words in relation to multiple deals…
This sentiment is a bit strange to me. I don’t think we’re “contenders” per se, but run the 2023 playoffs 100 times and we’re in the finals in at least some of the simulations. We had the 7th ranked SRS, one spot higher than the 2010-2011 Mavericks.
The fact of the matter is we’re at a place on the win curve at which 30 GMs are probably making trades that emphasize present value to some extent. That’s not a license to be reckless, but trading a lottery protected first round pick for Josh Hart is just…not reckless.
We still badly need another star, but the chances the pick itself would get us one were always very low, and we lottery protected it for good measure on that front. The trade also didn’t put a dent in our ability to put together a trade package for a star.
We got a little better in the present and near future at a small-ish cost to our more distant future. It’s the kind of trade teams in our position make all the time.
Can you find any of them? I certainly haven’t said that.
bless you hubie 🙂
made it out again today to go visit the goats…it was pretty sunny so the sheep were chilling in the shade (I don’t know why the owners haven’t already sheared the poor creatures, their wool looks like shit, and it’s hot)…
no pigs in sight, it was hot so they were being smart and chilling in the shed…
the goats did stop by for a bit to say hi to me and the dog, they dipped out pretty quick though to scratch themselves on the fence and hit the water barrel…
edit: confession – one of the pigs has this huge pot belly, while talking to it nicely the other day – I was also thinking it would be pretty tasty to eat…
E doesn’t give a shit about draft picks. He’s just using that as a cover. He’s mad we traded Cam Reddish. That is why Grimes and Hart are labeled “hustlebunnies” and not IQ, McBride, Sims or Mitch.
He’s mad Grimes started over Cam and he’s mad we traded Cam for hart. That’s why he constantly insults them with that label, as if trying hard is some kind of knock in a player. I guess it is when you idolize Cam.
Anyone who is complaining about the Hart trade now but was going apeshit in game threads when he came here and we were blasting teams or when we stomped Cleveland is a hypocrite. If you truly feel this way then you should also lament signing Brunson and Randle.
um… so strat and eb literally said in 2021 before we made the incineration that we do not have room for two rookies anyway… in fact i’m probably forgetting a rather large contingent who made that argument…. and hence the aftermath of the incineration argument… but the whole fact that the incineration was an argument even till today is based on the fact that not having a late rd pick is ‘no big deal’….
then you have 2022 in which we traded out of a LOTTO pick… and yea we got ‘something’ for it… but again.. how many people said ‘no big deal’?
then in 2023 with josh hart…. even presented with the info that cam whitmore would be in the vicinity of what might have been the pick…. how many have said that it was ‘no big deal’?
what do you think swifty’s position on all this is? or bba… strat or eb… or z-man…. or gonynynygo… or iserp… or i dunno i’m running out of names… but you know we should run a poll… or does any of this move you?
Too bad that lane clogging Hart got lucky and hit the go ahead 3pter off the dribble with under 2 mins left in Game 1 vs the Cavs…
That wasn’t a pick for a vet that was a pick for a pick with an extra open roster spot to sign a vet.
It was a shitty pick, so it was a bad trade, I just don’t think it was the end of the world you did. The Cam Reddish trade was that trade.
The Pacers and Thunder both kicked picks down the road this year due to roster constraints.
on feb 9th we were 30-26 at the 7th seed and 5 games out of the 4th seed.. what place on the win curve would you think anybody but the knicks would be if you were given those facts?
do you know who was in a very similar spot that we were in the year before? charlotte….
Yes, I think most GMs of a 30-26 team would trade a lottery protected first round pick to improve rather substantially, provided the team quality wasn’t obviously transitory a la Chris Paul’s year with OKC.
I don’t know why people keep glossing over the lineup change, but…
Since the lineup change til Feb 9th the Knicks were 20-13 for a .606 win%. That’s 49.69 wins over 82.
Over that span for Charlotte they were 15-18 for a .455 win%, that’s 37.3 wins
They were not in the same position
I think I’m gonna need some examples of a 30-26-ish, 5 seed, non-contender, trading a 1 at the deadline for a role player.
Well the Lakers were worse than that and traded firsts for several of them this seasons. Does that count?
What was the clippers record when they traded a first for morris?
37-16, and they were an obvious contender.
Raptors traded a 1st and two 2nds for Poeltl at 26-30.
Poeltl is a starting center. Teams trade 1s for starters; the Bulls traded 2 for Vuc. That’s not this case.
‘so strat and eb literally said in 2021’
This place is so damn funny sometimes.
‘does any of this move you?’
Nope.
I can only imagine the reaction here if the Knicks had made that Bulls trade for Vucevic…
the year memphis beat the spurs as an 8 seed they traded a first at the deadline for a 30 something shane battier.
The Heat at the trade deadline in 1998 traded their 1st rd pick for Brent Barry who by the time they played the Knicks in the playoffs was completely out of the rotation.
Josh Hart 30mpg
Poeltl 27mpg
Best part is the Raptors traded their 1st rd pick just to lose in the play in tourney, talk about marginal wins!
We’re the lakers “obvious contenders” this season when they trades firsts?
Should we even mention what the Bulls have done the last 2 postseasons since trading their 1st rd picks for starter Nikola Vucevic?
BTW I know I’m being a dick bringing up the Vucevic trade cause it was heavily criticized at the time for good reason and it has played out about as bad as possible for the Bulls. It’s actually a very good example about not trading 1st rd picks when you’re not close to contending.
Just like pointing out the hypocrisy of E justifying that trade but continuing to crap on the Hart trade.
Worst case scenario for the Hart deal would be the Mo Cheeks trade. NYK gives up Rod Strickland and beats Larry Bird and the Celtics in the playoffs, with Cheeks playing a huge role. Next season Mo fell off a cliff and we had to watch Rod’s entire brilliant career unfold elsewhere. Slightly different here because we didn’t actually draft the guy we traded but, I think the consensus is that, in this case, you take that swing. I think Rod was an eighteenth pick. Where you are on the win curve is important. I guess it depends on if you think winning and losing is a zero sum game. No championship=out of playoffs entirely? Not for me. Fun to beat Donovan and CLE. Didn’t give up any first round picks for him. Should we have?
so i see we’re also handwaving the fact that we were the SEVENTH seed at the time of the trade…. and that teams in our position making that deal ALL THE TIME constitutes once a decade…. am i counting this right? anything else we’re missing here so i’m not misrepresenting anyone?
and how have those deals turned out for those teams? that’s a top 6 protected 2024 pick for poeltl btw…. shane battier played one season…. if you want to squint the pacers also dealt a #32 pick for tj warren…. which i’ll be happy to spot also…
the return on those deals were not great… and so if this shit happens ALL THE TIME… are we also jumping off the cliff ALL THE TIME too with everyone else?
again this is assuming this has to be mutually exclusive.. it’s not.. there’s no reason dealing for josh hart has to be josh hart and only josh hart… he’s not special… we’re not even starting him! what’s the urgency to get a bench player that couldn’t wait until the offseason that necessitated giving up a pick when we’re still looking for core players…
we’re talking about divencenzo now.. he’s a bench player… maaaybe hart is clearly better ok… but is that really worth whatever we’re gonna be paying him AND a 1st? in all these back and forths… people are dodging this and that’s because it’s really hard to square isn’t it? i dunno someone have at it if i’m totally offbase….
and i get it… this is leon rose.. he doesn’t like the draft… but leon rose being leon rose also doesn’t excuse getting nothing for draft picks…. or getting 50 cents on the dollar for some future maybe picks that probably won’t ever amount to the lotto pick we gave up…. or torching picks to win 2.9999 more games…. there’s nothing within the hybrid approach that makes you do any of these things…. you don’t have to go full hinkie… but teams going the hybrid approach are fully capable of making fair deals…. we haven’t…
you can like him… and still acknowledge that these are terrible deals… people are so caught up in this halo effect that everything is gold that what would normally be lampooned if it were any other team… we can acknowledge both the good and the bad or at least understand it… and we would have more productive conversations… so please for everyone’s sake let’s try….
Knicks traded a 1st rd pick for Derek Harper but I think that trade can be justified considering where they were in the win curve…
This is getting beautiful mind-ish. Dude, Hart played out of his mind. Made half his threes. Hit big shots. Clearly helped us have our best season in forever. Yes, we still may have lost the trade. Yes, there’s a slight chance we rue the trade, we’ll see. But you’re so used to NYK being a bad organization that you’ve lost your perspective
i fucking love josh hart.. i probably went to more playoff games than anyone on this board… kings fans loved their season too.. but to a man they all hated the sabonis trade…
it’s ok not to like everything! i promise you won’t turn into a frog if you admit it….
Stop trying to minimize Hart by saying he was just a bench player, it’s so fucking disingenuous. He played 30mpg in the regular season and 32mpg in the playoffs both 4th on the team after Brunson, RJ and Randle.
By every metric he was one of the 2 or 3 best players on the team after his arrival. We all know the team’s record after he arrived and if you want to say it didn’t matter cause of what happened in the playoffs well shit they were one basket away from hosting Game 7 in the 2nd rd, a scenario that if were presented at the time of the trade even the most optimistic fan wouldn’t believe was possible.
Keep harping on the trade cause you don’t like the process fine, there’s a valid argument to that like JK and DRed have mentioned. You can go back and look I didn’t really have a strong opinion on the trade and I stayed far away from all the incinerated picks debate. But again JFC to criticize a trade that made such a positive impact and lead to the Knicks winning their 1st playoffs series in 10 years, in a very convincing fashion against Donovan Mitchell no less, is to me just trolling at this point.
“it’s ok not to like everything! i promise you won’t turn into a frog if you admit it….
We’re all cool with you not liking the trade, djphan. There are even people here kind enough to concede certain points to you. The problem is you’re convinced we will all climb on board with you if you just yell loud and long enough. That’s kind of an unpleasant experience for the rest of us.
I dunno what the amount of playoff games you attended this year has to do with anything but I don’t even live in NY and I went to a Knicks playoff game this year so I guess that counts for something!
you can have a difference of opinion.. but if you understand the position then we can have productive discussions…. but for whatever reason not liking the hart trade is being trollish…
not just you either… it’s a big part of the board…. and i’m not gonna get into what E says because i don’t agree with everything and especially not the way he delivers it… but i’m not a troll.. i’m here in good faith trying to have a discussion… i want to understand people which is why i bother with the internet… i ask a lot of questions but they end up being rhetorical because nobody wants to engage with them… fine…
but i’m some terrible person for not liking the deal? i’m not a fan of the team? i’m misrepresenting facts? ok yea we have a problem…. and sometimes i’m gonna spend a lot of effort to make a point … but if you don’t like what i got to say.. you don’t have to immediately infer bad intentions… and that’s generally why these discussions get in the muck…
you don’t have to like anybody’s opinion.. just come to an understanding and move on.. is your mind blown? yea cause that happens all the time i bet with you… we’re all capable of it… i promise you all these discussions.. even with E.. will go way way better if you just do that..
but i’m harping on this trade because still to this day.. people do not understand…
we had mission accomplished signs after the cavs series… if we’re signing hart to like a 25mm aav deal.. did we really win? if cam whitmore turns into a hof’er did we really win? that’s why this whole thing came up! there are at the very least other things to consider… and i’m certainly not the ones bringing this up… i promise you i am never ever instigating these discussions… i hardly ever prompt any discussion in fact… but if you challenge me i will challenge you right back….
so yea i promise i dont have leon rose voodoo dolls in my closet… or i am a trojan celtics fan or whatever… you won’t like everything that i gotta say.. but like.. you don’t have to… and you don’t have to be enraged or infer bad intentions when that happens…
seriously? that’s what you’re inferring with all this? that i’m trying to convince people on the internet to change their opinion? do i get kb clout from the 10 people who post here regularly?
i’m not that smart.. but i’m also not quite that dumb…. just give me a little credit here…
Like hell they were!!!
Sorry E, but as you know I deal with FAR too many Laker trolls to let this bit of misinformation slide. For crying out loud, they were a play-in team! Yes, The Lakers went 17-9 after the all-star break and jumped from outside the play-in partly because of the deadline roster changes, but they also leapt over a bushel of WC teams that either tanked or couldn’t get their heads out of their asses. And they drew arguably the most vulnerable #2 seed in the history of the league due to the Ja Morant situation. Followed by a matchup with a Warriors team who’s defense was bleh and a Steph Curry who used up his turn-back-the-clock sensu bean in Game 7 of the Kings series.
You wanna say they were contenders because they reached the Conference finals? That’s debatable. But they damn sure weren’t obvious.
I finally got rid of my cable last week…I’ve been thinking about getting rid of those ugly and noisy cable boxes for years…
yep, I’m a youtube tv person now…only bummer being no History channel on their lineup…
my 3 favorite shows right now are all on the history channel: Skinwalker Ranch, Beyond Skinwalker Ranch and season 10 of Alone…thankfully I was able to buy those seasons off of amazon…so all’s good…
still, feels a little weird to not have cable anymore…
DJ, I understand you think it would have been better to wait until the off-season to try to get Hart or someone equivalent because you prefer having our first round pick. But please don’t argue we could have gotten Hart this off season. Portland had to trade or lose him to because of tax issues. If they waited until the summer it would probably be to just lose him for nothing because they couldn’t sign him and trade him after the season without taking salary back unless he went to one of the few teams with salary space and those teams were unlikely to be interested. And since he can opt out and sign somewhere else, why would one of those few teams trade for him if they can just hire him into cap space. On the other hand he is a useful player on a good contract for the season just finished, and I’m sure other teams would have traded for him if we didn’t. Once he was on another team, that team would have the inside track to re-signing him like we do now. Net: it’s very unlikely he would be available to us now if we didn’t do the deal.
That said, it’s fair to believe he’s kind of fungible in that we could get someone else instead of him this off season. DiVicenzo is a good comparison. Let’s see where he ends up and for what salary. DiVincenzo is restricted, so the Warriors have some leverage. If he ends up costing the team that acquires him something like what we paid for Hart plus what we pay to keep him, then it was clearly a good deal to get Hart earlier and have a good run in the playoffs.
I’m with you geo, I got rid of my cable and signed up for YouTube TV last October. Only thing that has disappointed me was YouTube TV no longer carrying MLB Network starting in February but other than that I’ve been thrilled with ditching my cable for YouTube TV.
I think Amazon has the MLB network…
I’m saving a bunch getting rid of cable…the 2 boxes alone was costing me about $300 a year to “rent” – I’m probably giving it all right back with the different subscriptions I’ve got going on though 🙂
also used some of the money I saved on getting rid of the cable to up my internet from 150 mbps to 2 gb…the kids love me for that move…
no more complaints about our crappy McDonald’s wifi in the house…
There are clearly a lot of examples of non-contenders trading 1sts, silly “role player”/starter distinction aside. There’s no blanket rule for determining whether these trades were smart, because, well, they are all different trades.
I also don’t know how useful it is to look at the team’s record before the trade, since the whole idea is that the team would be better after. That’s not hindsight bias, it’s very much part of the ex ante calculation. To use an extreme example, if a 30-26 team trades a first and then wins a title, either that season or in a later season with the traded for player still on the roster, would be more than a bit bizarre to continue to critique the trade.
YouTube tv just dropped SNY. Value to me eroding.
I also like draft picks.
I won’t weigh in on what’s been said already in this tedious discussion beyond throwing my lot in with the loose coalition of ptmilo, TNFH, strat, JK47, Raven, BBA, EB, etc.
Some additional points:
It seems pretty clear that the Knicks fully expected the DAL pick to convey. If not, it would have made more sense to offer that pick over their own top-14 protected pick, which I would imagine that POR would have accepted at the time. So the notion that they wanted to trade out of the draft seems absurd; they just rolled the dice on the DAL pick being the better one to retain and lost.
And had the DAL pick conveyed, it would not have been used on Cam Whitmore. Does anyone really think that he would have been the pick, given this FO’s emhasis on character, work ethic, and durability? Teams with notoriously good GMs…OKC, TOR, MIA, UTA…passed on him for not meeting their standards on that front, nor did anyone try to trade up or in to draft him as he dropped. It’s ludicrous to make the argument about him in any way whatsoever.