[news.google.com] — Tuesday, November 15, 2022 6:40:00 AM
NBA Trade Rumors: 3 Julius Randle trade ideas the Knicks should explore Sir Charles in Charge
[news.google.com] — Tuesday, November 15, 2022 12:07:00 AM
New York Knicks at Utah Jazz odds, picks and predictions USA TODAY Sportsbook Wire’Falls on Me’: Knicks’ RJ Barrett Benched as Thunder Rolls at MSG Sports IllustratedOklahoma City Thunder vs New York Knicks Nov 13, 2022 Game Summary NBA.comOKC Thunder has record-setting win against New York Knicks Oklahoman.comNew York Knicks vs. Utah Jazz Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 11-15-2022 Winners and WhinersView Full Coverage on Google News
[news.google.com] — Monday, November 14, 2022 8:00:22 PM
NBA Insider Wants That ‘Big Changes’ Could Be Coming For The New York Knicks: “Thibodeau’s Seat Is Warm…” Yardbarker
[news.google.com] — Monday, November 14, 2022 6:51:39 PM
Knicks fan gets limited victory in seat ban fight with James Dolan and MSG New York Daily News
[news.google.com] — Monday, November 14, 2022 6:48:00 PM
Knicks’ Evan Fournier unable ‘to find a rhythm’ in new bench role New York Post
[news.google.com] — Monday, November 14, 2022 6:41:00 PM
Will 76ers Rival Consider Moving Former First-Round Pick? Sports Illustrated
[news.google.com] — Monday, November 14, 2022 2:07:18 PM
Trade Rumor: Knicks forward Julius Randle linked to Miami Heat Empire Sports Media
[news.google.com] — Monday, November 14, 2022 12:25:31 PM
‘Falls on Me’: Knicks’ RJ Barrett Benched as Thunder Rolls at MSG Sports IllustratedNew York Knicks at Utah Jazz odds, picks and predictions USA TODAY Sportsbook WireKnicks 145, Thunder 135: Fire Tom Thibodeau Posting and ToastingOklahoma City Thunder vs New York Knicks Nov 13, 2022 Game Summary NBA.comTom Thibodeau has back against wall during West Coast trip New York Daily NewsView Full Coverage on Google News
[news.google.com] — Monday, November 14, 2022 11:24:29 AM
Keep or Trade: Knicks’ Cam Reddish could get full MLE offers Empire Sports Media
[news.google.com] — Monday, November 14, 2022 11:19:46 AM
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120 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2022.11.15)”
Fred Katz was on Zach Lowe’s podcast yesterday, and at one point they both came to the conclusion that the team would be much better off with Randle off the bench and Obi starting, but then also came to the agreement that the team will never do that. Macri expressed both of those sentiments in today’s newsletter.
It’s just so depressing that there are all these obvious things the team should do (see also embracing Brick For Vic), and yet we all collectively understand that they won’t do any of them.
Here are the 3 trades in the first link.
Trade #1 NYK, Miami, LAL:
NYK get Westbrook, Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent, 1RP from LAL
Miami gets Randle, Derrick Rose, and Dallas’ 1RP from NYK
LAL get Kyle Lowry, Evan Fournier
Trade #2 NYK, Charlotte:
Knicks get Gordon Hayward, PJ Washington
Charlotte gets Randle, Cam, Dallas’ 1RP
Trade #3 NYK, OKC:
Knicks get Lu Dort, Mike Muscala, Darius Bazely
OKC gets Randle, Dallas’ 1RP
I’ve been on the “trade Randle for Westbrook and draft picks” train for awhile so no surprise I’d prefer the first deal even if we did have to include Dallas’ pick. The Lakers are so poorly run that I think a future 1st from them is really valuable. The other two I’m not a fan of.
Would the Lakers do that trade, though?
I could see Randle actually having value as a sixth man type.
How can the Lakers be making any win now deal with the state their team is in?
That said, Kyle Lowry/Evan Fournier/Lonnie Walker/Lebron/AD is actually a pretty non-awful starting five.
There’s been reporting that LeBron greed to the extension because Pelinka promised him the team would keep trying to win. And also, the way the deal is structured, he could leave after next year. So if you think they have to appease him no matter the long-term risk, then…
*sigh*
I’m still disgusted. And confused. I stayed away from immediately talking about this team after Sunday’s game because games like that bring out my inner Bobby Knight lol
I’m not sure if Thibs is the problem or Julius. Seems to me that either Thibs should be replaced or Obi’s not as good as we think. I watched Julius BLATANTLY not give even a miniscule fuck on defense. With Thibs’ defensive background, why did he not hold Randle accountable? Shit! Put Obi in! Obi’s problem on defense isn’t effort- it’s experience and awareness. WTF?? That shit was unacceptable and that was a microcosm of what ails this team. This dude’s not playing defense as our “best” player, and Thibs is ok with it? I can totally see Thibs losing the team if that’s the case. Brunson has been bad on defense this season, but at least he fights.
I’m not sure Johnnie Bryant is the answer at coach because we really haven’t seen him coach. But I’m also not sure if moving Randle will get Thibs to coach better. That being said- I’d rather move Randle and let Thibs coach the season out than throw Bryant into the fire and expect results with this roster.
Either way, we need to clean up our Randle and Fournier situation- and fast!
Guys, come on, we need to pivot to youth, Dort is 23yo and Bazley is 22yo. Of course it’s trade #3 that we should prefer. I just don’t know if Presti would do it.
There’s zero rationale for Presti to do that trade (as much as I’d love it).
These proposed trades….sheesh!
I forgot to mention Thibs’ handling of RJ in Sunday’s game. Here you are not holding Randle accountable and constantly going to him even when he’s having a bad game, but you bench your newly minted RJ?? Listen…the Parcells Way DOES NOT work in today’s NBA. It actually alienates these young guys. It might still work in the NFL..but not the NBA.
Perturbed, I am.
Read- ROYALLY PISSED
I think the biggest issue with the LAL trade is if the Lakers are willing to take back salary past this season. They’ve got $50M in cap space this summer and could just punt the rest of this year and try and rebuild in free agency.
Are Bazley and Dort actually good at anything?
RJ was like 2 for 10 with 4 fouls when he got benched. Randle was at least doing something on O…
True Z.
When I said “not holding Randle accountable” I was talking about more than that game. He had it goin on offense, but he’s still not good enough to hijack the offense.
PJ, I agree that Randle needs to be held more accountable in general, and specifically for his defensive lapses.
I don’t put much creedence in some of the blooper reels regarding his defense though. You could make those for pretty much every Knicks player, especially Brunson. RJ got scorched by SGA repeatedly and his D in general has left a lot to be desired.
On a related note, as an old school guy, I am appalled by the lack of boxing out in the NBA in general, and for the Knicks specifically. Isn’t that something that even biddie-ball coaches would reprimand you for?
The more I think about it..the whole Thibs-Randle relationship is the problem here. How do you NOT hold Randle accountable when you have a talented lottery pick- who has performed when given the chance- behind him? I don’t understand that. Obi should be Randle’s proverbial carrot. But he’s not. He’s been given a small amount of opportunity for Randle’s sake. And even though he’s performed when given more opportunity, Thibs still hasn’t found a way to use him. Far too many nights has Randle started 1-8 with 4 turnovers, while Obi goes 4-5 with a block and 3 assists and no turnovers- but Randle still logs 36 minutes. I just don’t get it. Or maybe I do and I’m just afraid how my words will taste after saying how much I believe in Thibs’ coaching in the past. Yeesh.
“It’s just so depressing that there are all these obvious things the team should do ”
There are multiple reasons for not doing it.
1. Current management extended Randle. It would make them look bad if he’s benched.
2. Current management probably wants to trade Randle. Benching him would probably reduce his value and make it more difficult.
3. Obi has a couple of very good and very exciting skills on offense, but he’s limited, bad on defense, and not very good overall (which of course is another black mark against them because they drafted him over Hali).
I like Obi a lot. He’s a very exciting player as an energy guy off the bench, but imo he’s overrated by NY fans and sport media. If he started he’d put up decent numbers overall, but imo against any good team that was actually trying, he’d be shut down and abused on the other end. He reminds me of Enes Kanter. They are different players completely, but overrated in the same ways (for awhile).
The solution is not to start Obi. The solution is to trade Randle and find a defense first stretch PF to replace him with Obi coming off the bench.
Randle is averaging 20.8 points, TS% 578, 9.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists and people want to trade him for negative assets. Danny Ainge has a used car for you.
This is your cue, Noble.
Randle has really short arms. I found a draft report that said he would never be an effective defender in the NBA because of that fact. That was an accurate prediction.
I think the T-Rex’s sometimes thrive on offense because you can be more powerful with shorter arms.
Look, you can hide Jalen Brunson on defense. You can absolutely take that hit. But you can’t do it with your power forward.
That’s basically what we have talked about with Randle since he got here. A negative defender at PF is hard to compensate for. Even more so if they are ball dominant and not that efficient on offense.
Obi has three inches in wingspan on Randle and is still short armed for the NBA
The issue with Randle isn’t his arms, it’s that he is constantly 20ft away from his man and doesn’t seem to care
What’s ironic about Randle is that offensively he is playing very much like he played in NO back in 2018-19, and recently even better. In his last 7 games, in 33 mpg he’s averaging 23-9-3 on a .624 TS%, shooting 38% from 3, 80% from th4 line on over 7 attempts a game. On the negative side he’s had 26 TOVs vs. 23 ASTs and has almost no steals or blocks.
Most of his detractors from last season would have considered those numbers a massive upgrade. However, it seems that the lowlights are so egregious that he isn’t winning anyone over.
There seems to be a weird dynamic between Julius and Thibs, and I can’t figure it out. It’s almost as if Thibs is afraid of “losing” Julius, and yet it also seems that Randle is tuning Thibs out. Maybe Julius thinks that he’s adapted as far as he will go and is purposely sabotaging Thibs. Or maybe some of Randle’s teammates are not big fans of his and there’s some passive-aggressive stuff going on. In any case, something has to give there.
Yeah, but what if he had 20-foot-long arms? Didja ever stop to think about that?
Here’s a very predictive piece by Jonathon Tjarks (RIP) from 2014 concerning Randle’s potential problems on D in the NBA due to his shortish wingspan:
https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/1/2/5258332/julius-randle-nba-draft-prospect-2013
My opinion is that Randle is more than long and athletic enough to be a solid defender. It’s all about effort and awareness. He’s not blocking Durant’s turnaround jumper, but he can at least contest and hedge appropriately. He can use his powerful body and quick feet to get into guys without fouling. (and his foul rate has been very low so far this year, so he has ample margin for error there.) If you watch an entire game’s worth of film, you’ll see him play good-to-excellent defense at least part of the time. But when he takes his foot off the gas even a little bit, then his defense suffers disproportionally because of his physical shortcomings.
“Randle is averaging 20.8 points, TS% 578, 9.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists and people want to trade him for negative assets. Danny Ainge has a used car for you.”
The league-average TS% for power forwards this season is .582 and Randle’s AST/TO ratio is almost even. For the second consecutive year, the Knicks AST% is higher with Randle off the floor. Forget the lowlights–the Knicks’ defense is 14.7 PTS/100 with Randle off the floor, a differential that puts him in the 2nd percentile in the NBA.
Maybe you can understand why there aren’t 29 teams pounding down our door.
Agree with all the complaints about Randle, but — psychobabble-wise — it’s more likely Thibs and Randle don’t see his play as a problem at all. Sure, he has defensive lapses, but Thibs may be thinking more like Wally who routinely praises Julius as having “monster games” and even Clyde who talks up Randle’s steady numbers and wonders aloud why the fans are disappointed with his play.
Z-man’s post above shows that Randle has even improved this year, so I doubt anyone on the team thinks Julius is the problem at the moment. More likely they think Randle is consistently *getting his* and we need help from elsewhere. I suspect the club is most disappointed with E4, Mitch’s injury, and Grimes’s injury.
EDIT: Noble’s astute post above is likely not on the team’s radar, either.
“There seems to be a weird dynamic between Julius and Thibs, and I can’t figure it out.”
It’s hard for me to differentiate between Thibs and the front office as far as Randle is concerned.
A point Macri made today is if Randle’s minutes consistently fall below ~30, that may well be tantamount to giving up on ever trading him for value. It’s very unlikely anyone is trading anything of value, or anything at all for that matter, for a player a shitty Knicks team conceded wasn’t really making them better. So there might be a front office dictate, even if it’s by implication, to continue playing him at least starter’s minutes.
Personally, it’s a little hard for me to buy his value would be much different at 28 minutes per game as opposed to 32. It’s not like we’re pulling the wool over anyone’s eyes–every other team in the NBA knows he’s a deeply flawed player and if they traded for him they’d presumably have a plan to deal with that.
I’m willing to invest in surgery or hormone solutions to give Randle 20ft arms, send me your proposals.
Also, I hate all those trades. Maybe the Westbrook one? Im skeptical the Lakers go for it.
The irksome thing about it all is that Randle & RJ just don’t seem like they’re giving the effort. Fournier sucks but that’s more because he runs like he’s waist deep in the La Brea Tar pits.
They’re potentially very fixable issues.
You can trade bad players in this league for value, but that’s conditional on the perception of the guy having some untapped value somewhere… either being young enough, or being underutilized, or used in a bad role, etc. I don’t think teams view Randle as any of that, he’s been in a good role for him, he’s been given plenty of minutes and he’s not young enough to entice teams to think he’ll get better.
I think we’re stuck with Julius for the long term unless some bigger trade happens and he gets included somehow, and I don’t see this front office making a big trade anytime soon, so this is the team I expect will be there for the season. I think it’s more likely they’ll fire Thibs if things get unsustainable and try again with a different coach.
Z-Man – Ok, maybe he is a bad defender in spite of having short arms and being slow. He has been pretty bad on defense.
Guys – the trade that the Lakers would agree to is Randle + Fournier for Westbrook – without draft picks.
Right now Randle and Fournier are both negative assets with $ owed beyond this year. No way the Lakers give up picks even when sending Westbrook’s contract back. Giving Randle/Fournier away for free is better than sending out picks to get rid of them.
Presumably we’d buy out Westbrook, start Obi.
Rotation would be:
C: Mitch when back
PF: Obi
SF: RJ
SG: Cam or Grimes
PG: Brunson
Bench – Rose, Quickley, Cam or Grimes, Hart…. and Carmelo Anthony (ducks)
The crazy thing is that if the FO had any inkling that Cam would be as good as he has been, I think they would’ve/should’ve done the deal for Donovan Mitchell.
Re: Randle’s defense – IMHO it’s 80% about effort and 20% about scheme. Clearly he is giving very little effort at times, so that definitely has to change. But various twitter-types have pointed out ad nauseam how horrendous Randle is at drop coverage, and even though it is so obvious to the point that opposing teams hunt Randle in drop, Thibs rarely has Randle switch instead of drop. I would much rather have an opposing 4 try to overpower Brunson who is built like a fire hydrant or have Randle try and move his feet to stick with a PG (which he’s done well at times in the past) than give up wide open shots when Randle stands with his hands down in “drop” coverage.
I think Julius could have value as the hub of a 2nd unit. Lakers really could use someone like him when Lebron sits. They don’t really have any other advantage-creating ball handlers on their team. He’d be better as a hub of a bench mob on the Lakers than Westbrook is. And you can bet Lebron will not tolerate his effort and attitude.
“Guys – the trade that the Lakers would agree to is Randle + Fournier for Westbrook – without draft picks.”
I love this trade except, sadly, I don’t see the team buying out WB and starting Obi, which is the important part. For most viewers, and prolly Dolan, that would seem like a mistake. They’d want to see the big (awful) star coming back for that (awful) package going out.
“Forget the lowlights–the Knicks’ defense is 14.7 PTS/100 with Randle off the floor, a differential that puts him in the 2nd percentile in the NBA.”
RJ Barrett is in the 12th percentile
Cam Reddish is in the 28th percentile
Jalen Brunson is in the 38th percentile
Evan Fournier is in the 44th percentile
Derrick Rose is in the 86th percentile
Obi Toppin is in the 89th percentile
I doubt that these numbers come anywhere close to suggesting individual accountability on D.
PS — To Dolan, sending Julius and E4 to LA might also smell too much like us sending Shumpert and JR to go win rings in Cleveland, so we could … do what exactly? Sign Arron Afflalo? Haha. If Fournier and Randle thrived with LeBron, making it a full-on Cavs redux, that would really twist the knife (again).
“Z-Man – Ok, maybe he is a bad defender in spite of having short arms and being slow. He has been pretty bad on defense.”
Owen, I agree that he’s been somewhere between unacceptably inconsistent and just plain bad on D. I don’t think he’s particularly “slow” physically. He just meanders, disengages, and misreads.
He’s sort of a different version of Amar’e…different body type/athleticism package, similar (but not identical) issues between the ears.
Jimmy Butler is in the 3rd percentile in defensive on-off, teams score +13.4pts per 100 with him on the floor.
Marcus Smart is in the 14th percentile in D on-off, and in the 7th percentile in O on-off. the team is 9.7 points worse with him on the floor. Maybe the Celts would trade him and a future first for Julius…
I don’t know what teams that have a “superstar” would take Randle, and I also have to squint to see a team with a regular star or 2 wanting to take Randle. As far as Fournier goes- the contenders who need wing shooting really don’t have the salary to send back in a trade- unless we take 3-4 players back. I would HAPPILY trade him to Orlando for Isaac. Orlando needs to surround Banchero with shooting, and Isaac may be expendable with the rise of Bol. Maybe when Isaac returns to health, we will have a player to groom.
Sending Fournier and Randle to LA will definitely not win them rings LOL.
Honestly, here is how you fix the situation.
Trade D Rose to whoever for whatever you can get. 2nd rounder? Cool.,
Trade Randle and Fournier for Westbrook, no picks.
Keep Westbrook as the back up PG. He is not the Westbrook of old but he has finally accepted the bench role and he would be better than D Rose is now. Let him play out the season and then let him go.
Start IQ.
Brunson/Westbrook/McBride
IQ/Grimes
RJ/Cam
Obi/Hart
Mitch/Sims
Brian, how could you label the Lakers lineup ‘non-awful’ with Fournier in it??? I look to you for wisdom…
“Sending Fournier and Randle to LA will definitely not win them rings LOL.”
Hahaha. True.
I like your plan if Westbrook buys in, but I still think Dolan asks, “Who replaces Julius on all the posters? The second string point guard?” 😉
“I doubt that these numbers come anywhere close to suggesting individual accountability on D.”
Sure, anything from this season alone is going to be too small a sample size. That said, Randle has made his team worse defensively in 5 of his 7 total seasons (there was no difference in either direction in 2020-2021). This includes *four seasons* in which his defensive on/off was in a single-digit percentile. That’s…pretty substantial evidence of something, IMO.
Now, Randle is not particularly unique among NBA players in that he comes with defensive deficiencies. The problems are 1) his are difficult to scheme around, because realistically his best position offensively is the 5 and it’s generally very difficult to scheme around poor defensive 5s and 2) it’s been a long time since you could make the case Randle makes this worthwhile offensively.
A player who forces a team into a lot of suboptimal choices defensively and is a high usage, mediocre-to-bad efficiency player on offense is just not going to be worth a 4/$107M contract to just about anyone.
“Jimmy Butler is in the 3rd percentile in defensive on-off, teams score +13.4pts per 100 with him on the floor.”
He also has made his team better defensively in 10 of his 11 prior seasons (last season he made the heat all of 0.5 PTS/100 worse). This includes six seasons in the 75th percentile or above in defensive differential.
“Who replaces Julius on all the posters? The second string point guard?”
I honestly don’t think Dolan cares or thinks this way (at least not anymore).
And I don’t think Dolan thinks Randle is some “star” jsut because he had one good season with us as a second team all NBA player. That was a year and a half ago at this point.
And they could still promote westbrook as a “star” coming off the bench as a super 6th man.
Yeah, but what if he had 20-foot-long arms? Didja ever stop to think about that?
nicely done sir 🙂
almost all his stats don’t suck at all…the one big one sticking out – his DBPM, well, that and his defensive rebounding, three point shooting percentage, and his high turnover rate – don’t paint a picture as a big roster hole…
and, then you watch the games, and yeah…new coach time…
someone other than thibs needs to control the minutes allocation for the players…
“I honestly don’t think Dolan cares or thinks this way (at least not anymore).”
Maybe you’re right. I just wanna see Obi play 30 minutes a night, so I’m onboard.
The Knicks approach always seems to be “act as if the best short term case scenario will come true and like long term forecasting is for loser small market teams.”
If Randle plays well, they’ll keep him because the best case scenario is he builds on that. Just like they’re keeping him now because they’re hoping for the best case scenario of him improving.
When Randle struggled last year, people were saying “you don’t sell low!” but just as we’ve seen with countless vets, the flow chart for when to trade vets for max value goes something like this:
Does he have positive trade value? Yes: trade him immediately, No: trade him the next time he has positive trade value or else let him expire.
There is no “wait around and hope his value goes up” path. Except if you’re Leon Rose that is. Every year, Leon’s seat gets warmer, causing him to focus ever more on the narrower set of outcomes that keeps him employed, his interests becoming less and less aligned with the Knicks’. The long term is irrelevant to him. A Randle resurgence might be the most likely way for him to still be working for the Knicks in a year.
The Lakers have the opportunity to either trade Westbrook’s contract for immediate help, or to use the cap space they’ll get when it expires. I have no idea which one they’ll pick, I would be utterly shocked if they conclude that trading for Julius Randle et al. is the best option that will present itself.
The one case you can make for it if you squint is it’s a potential way to upgrade immediately without having to trade their picks. The Hield/Turner package is obviously much better, but it would cost them at least one of their picks.
The problem is I highly doubt they think getting marginally better is worth punting on all of their forthcoming cap flexibility. They probably think they can spend the cap space to get better production than they’ll get from our pupu platter, and even though the amount of cap space will be smaller than the amount paid to our pupu platter, they’re probably right.
What’s the German word for when you look up and TNFH has already written what you would have said if it were your absolute best day as an basketball message board poster.
Julius BAD defense
Fin
The deadline is Feb 9, i don’t think we’ll make changes to the roster before january. So we have a month and a half, maybe two months, to endure this team with no personnel adjustments. If things keep going south, maybe we’ll replace Thibs sooner than that. This early struggles can be a good thing, and the opposite of what happened in 2020-21, we now know the team has a lot of flaws, but it also has some players worth having and getting a good pick is the best plan to add a good player to the group that we’ll keep and then see what’s still missing.
“A player who forces a team into a lot of suboptimal choices defensively and is a high usage, mediocre-to-bad efficiency player on offense is just not going to be worth a 4/$107M contract to just about anyone.”
First, my general point is that using on-off stats regarding Randle (or any player) is a tricky business. His best on-off year was 2019-20, which we all agree was a terrible year compared to 2017-18, 2018-19, and 2020-21. And in his NOP year he was in the 40th percentile on D by this metric, hardly a major liability, and was a net positive.
Specific to this year, skeptics were sort of pleased with the way he played in October, and less happy with how he’s played in November, even though he is actually at a very high efficiency on O in those 7 games. So your characterization of him as a “mediocre-to-bad efficiency player on offense” is certainly subject to scrutiny going forward, especially with regard to his historic on-off metrics, where his team has been better on offense with him on the floor in 5 of his past 6 seasons, including this one. In fact, he’s doing better at something that you suggested he couldn’t do any more due to physical decline…getting to the rim and finishing.
In other words, the question isn’t whether he’s worth 4 years/$107 mill per se, it’s how close is he to that valuation in a more suitable situation and role. For example, if he’s a $15 mill AAV player in a better role, that’s better than being a vet’s minimum player. If you look at this year’s stats, he’s definitely heading in a more positive valuation direction than he was last year.
The Lakers will have a lot better options than our pupu platter of vets just fyi.
I suggest y’all settle into this team and try to see some silver linings because it’s not gonna change much this year.
1. Yes, the D is terrible, but it’s not usually OKC-game terrible… we just need our backstop back and healthy. Honestly it makes me question ditching Noel for Hart in this “Thibs” system.
2. Randle’s gonna Randle, so just be glad he’s mostly cooperating on offense. He is not ideally suited to cover modern 4s, but it’s not like he’s the only one who sucks out there on D.
3. Yes, as the non-Zion part of that underachieving 2019 Duke team, our wings are terribly flawed. Fortunately, we have three 1sts in the next draft, which is deep with wings!
4. Hopefully Grimes is still good? If so, he should clearly start.
5. Fournier is an expiring contract after this year. He might even be a buyout candidate.
That’s all I’ve got.
“What’s the German word for when you look up and TNFH has already written what you would have said if it were your absolute best day as an basketball message board poster.”
verfremdungseffektnfh
Anyone getting the feeling that tonight’s game is sort of a must-win for Thibs….or at least a moral victory loss?
The wing thing is worth watching. Cam has had 2 good games out of 13, and Grimes seems close to getting back. And can Fournier be as bad as he’s looked?
If Randle were on the Bobby Portis contract I’d be ok with that.
People have spent years talking about how replaceable Mitch is but Randle is absolutely replaceable.
I have learned from my foolish Knicks optimism at the beginning of the season and taken the Jazz at -6.5 (at +120) tonight. Hoping that my bet hits and that the Knicks summarily fire Thibs. Dolan’s Razor dictates they’ll win just enough for Leon, Thibs, and the players to keep their jobs with the organization.
But yes, tonight feels like a must-win, or must-lose-in-the-way-a-normal-NBA-team-loses kind of night for Thibs.
Ich wünschte, ich hätte das gesagt — fick dich, Gesicht Humper.
Jazz are playing well but you can’t get too crazy about them yet. 5th in SRS but just +4. Always an advantage to play in SLC.
Interested to see Walker Kessler and all the new Jazz.
And Raven, that sounds right!
“First, my general point is that using on-off stats regarding Randle (or any player) is a tricky business.”
They’re definitely not dispositive but when a player has multiple seasons in a single-digit percentile, doesn’t rack up any defensive box score numbers, and drives everyone insane via the eye-test I’m not sure what else you need to draw a conclusion.
“So your characterization of him as a “mediocre-to-bad efficiency player on offense” is certainly subject to scrutiny going forward”
Yes, it’s subject to scrutiny going forward in the sense that if Julius Randle improves the characterization will no longer be accurate. It is now though, even though he’s improved since last year when he was perhaps the worst offensive player in the sport. He is currently below league-average at his position, is that characterization not fair?
“In fact, he’s doing better at something that you suggested he couldn’t do any more due to physical decline…getting to the rim and finishing.”
Not sure I said he “couldn’t do” this anymore, but I did suggest the drop off in both his frequency and accuracy of shots at the rim could be due to decline.
I still think this is true, because his finishing is still in the 38th percentile among bigs and his frequency is still in the 20th percentile.
Again, he has assuredly improved since last year. Would’ve been hard not to! But there are still a lot of concerning signs here.
Randle needs to go and Obi needs to start.
Whatever accomplishes this needs to happen. If it costs us draft picks or makes us the lolknicks I do not care.
On top of that Thibs should go and IQ should either start or get huge minutes off the bench.
If Rose is unable or unwilling to make these things happen then we should fire him and replace him with someone who can make this happen.
As for whether Obi is a borderline all-star or a bench player waiting to be exposed does not matter. We need to definitively find out what he is so we can move forward. He has shown us everything he possibly can off the bench and is once again putting up fantastic numbers in limited minutes. Now with a seemingly consistent and quite good three-point shot.
TNFH after getting to use the word dispositive correctly on a basketball blog
via GIPHY
I am so proud of myself right now
Owen, I’d be even more excited if I successfully posted a gif on here. How did you do that?
I feel like I look at this team in the preseason every year, and I say the same thing: they’re not going to be that good because there is no path to the team having an above average eFG%, and they’re not good enough defensively to make up for that.
Same thing this year, the Knicks are 23rd in eFG% and just about every player in the rotation except for the bigs are below average. And then this year the defense seems to be worse than the offense. I don’t know if the ship be sinkin’, but it’s taking on water.
I hit edit, posted the embed link, highlighted it, and pressed the code button in options.
Not sure whether that option is available to everyone or just for people with admin access.
Two russian missiles have hit Poland 😮
Cyber, I think it’s actually the wreckage of Russian missiles hit by Ukrainian defense systems.
Which is ever so slightly better for avoiding escalation.
TNFH, it looks like you need to add code embed link /code and enclose the code and /code with <>
TNFH, characterizing Randle generically as a “big” certainly impacts his percentile rankings, especially when you lump in low usage-high efficiency players like Mitch. He’s best characterized as a medium-high usage volume scorer. So in judging his offensive efficiency, he should be compared to guys in similar roles.
He is currently tied for 44th in usage% among qualified players. In that range, efficiency numbers are all over the place. Randle’s overall TS% is in the same ballpark as guys like Ingram, Siakam, LaVine, AD, Herro, Clarkson, Kuzma, Vassell, Franz, Bam, etc. In the last 7 games, it’s been more on a par with guys like Sabonis, Jimmy, Kat, Markkannen, etc.
So my question is: if he stabilizes somewhere between his current overall number of .578 and his November nimber of .624, would you still characterize him as “mediocre to bad efficiency?”
My sense is that his valuation going forward will largely depend on where his TS% levels out. If it’s around .600 at a 27% usage, he will be viewed far more favorably than at .530. It might not be enough to get him back to neutral value, but the closer, the better.
It’s a little early, but I’m gonna nominate Talen Horton Tucker for tonight’s Lord Sumner Award. He’s been shooting like crap all season, tonight he goes 5-7 from 3 and puts up 30.
Team had a players only meeting last night which always portends good things:https://twitter.com/StevePopper/status/1592578597734477826
via GIPHYGif test system
Edit: Yeah, I think it requires admin access
You’re talking my love language, Former Mike Honcho. Maybe I should change my name to Turambar. Being a Knicks fan is definitely what happens to someone under Morgoth’s curse.
Loved this anecdote haha – I know I would at least be a little tempted to say shake and bake at him haha.
Also geo as ever you are such a friendly and welcoming presence, you genuinely made this lurkers day by asking about my username and pfp
Early Bird – I tried making the gif go for you but could not. So it probably does require admin access.
You know OKC found one in the 2nd round with one of our picks, right?
TNFH- Yes, as you’ve mentioned Randle TS% is smidge below average for a power forward. That said, you’ve neglected to mention his usage is way higher than the average power forward- 26 to 18.2. You can’t compare first/second option players to fourth/fifth ones. As Z-Man noted- Randle’s combination of TS and usage put him in pretty good company. Now you want to argue turnovers give a lot back I’m right there with you but arguing that Randle has been a below average scorer for a power forward this year seems misguided.
Some random speculating on Thibs’ situation, if I had to pick a date for him to get canned it would be Pearl Harbor Day. This tough 5-game road trip is probably survivable no matter the record unless the team looks listless. But after that there is a brutal stretch of mostly home games: POR, MEM, @DET, MIL, DAL, CLE, ATL. If the team gets embarrassed in multiple games in that stretch, particularly that last one, it would be an excellent time to bring in a new/interim coach. They have a soft stretch of 4 out of 5 road games: @CHA, SAC, @CHI, @CHI again (?!?!) and @IND.
That seems to be the best road to the Wemby sweepstakes. If Thibs comes out of that stretch close to .500, we’re probably stuck with him for the rest of the year. I’m just not feeling that they are capable of turning things around right now. There’s a passive-aggressive malaise that seems grounded in players not being happy about role, playing time and tactics.
That’s turned into a freezing cold take.
I know we should discuss stats, and all aspects of the players and the team, but i have one question for you all that goes beyond if Randle is playing good, ok or bad. Does any of you want to keep Randle?
I’d be okay keeping Randle. But would much rather move him.
His defensive issues this year, at least last game, look fixable. It’s 99% awareness on a lot of plays.
He won’t be good on defense, but I think he can be not terrible. On the other hand maybe a Randle/Brunson/RJ defense is unfixable.
I’m mostly hoping he keeps upping his value for a trade.
It would be pretty fitting to constantly change my username haha, you just know Turin would be one of those guys. My man went through like six or seven names in one book.
Looking at the tweet Owen posted in the last thread, with some of the lowlights about Randle’s defense, I believe that he is purposefully staying near the basket, and only “recovering” when it is clear that the opposing player is taking a wide open shot, with disastrous results.
I am not sure if it is something he is doing on his own, or Thibs is telling him to stay back for rebounds/help. In any case, it is a glaring hole of the defense. And that is compounded because if the other big does not defend the perimeter either (which is more natural for a C, and this is somewhat mitigated with Mitch). So we can be against a team with its 5 players on the outside, and we are defending only with 3 players.
EDIT: Not getting back fast on transition is totally Randle and he has to stop complaining and improve that.
I think the one role Fournier is actually good at right now is being the guy who sits out beyond the arc and gets open threes on kickouts from dominant players like Lebron and (recently, at least) AD. If they pair him with PatBev, they can even hide him on defense. That’s what is so mystifying about Fournier’s usage on the Knicks. He is now on the second unit where he…doesn’t shoot that much. Like, what is he even doing on this team!?!?
Agreed, and I’m assuming they’ll come out of that stretch close to .500. Thibs as Knicks coach is like Jason Voorhees. I’ll never believe he’s finished until he is clearly finished.
“TNFH, characterizing Randle generically as a “big” certainly impacts his percentile rankings, especially when you lump in low usage-high efficiency players like Mitch. He’s best characterized as a medium-high usage volume scorer. So in judging his offensive efficiency, he should be compared to guys in similar roles.”
This is a relevant consideration for his efficiency percentiles for the reason Nicos mentioned, but what relevance does it have for his ranking in terms of shooting and finishing at the rim? Why would his comparatively high usage negatively effect his shot *distribution*?
.
The advantage of the Lakers doing the EF+Randle for Westbrook trade is that it basically is the Westbrook-Wizards-LA trade in reverse. They are taking one giant salary and breaking it up into two. This gives them a lot more flexibility for the next trade, which would involve their draft picks. Right now, they basically have no way to just trade for, say, Myles Turner because they only have Westbrook’s $47MM to trade, meaning they have to take back somewhere between 40-54MM or so – there just aren’t that many great trades out there.
With Julius and Fournier, they could trade Julius + one of the picks for something between 23-30MM and EF + one of the picks for something between 17-22MM roughly.
The real question is how hopeful the Lakers are that they can sign free agents this offseason. Hard to know who will be left over after the extensions, trades before deadlines etc. I am sure lots of players would like to play in LA, but not so sure how many want to be there holding down the fort with LBJ’s inevitable decline, AD’s inevitable injuries, and Rob Pelinka’s inexplicable extension.
Knickerblogger HTML would go 82-0 in the NBA
Looking at the clips of Randle’s D again, I’m thinking there’s supposed to be some help defense on a couple of those drives. Hart looks a step late at times.
He was also covering Dort for much of the game and Dort is not a good shooter. He’s at 26.6% from 3 for the year. That said, he’s a career 32.7% shooter. Still bad but you can’t leave him *that* open.
Overall, there was still a lot lacking.
I agree with the several people who have noted that (1) “big” probably isn’t a fair characterization of Randle assuming it includes Cs and (2) a .578 TS% on massive usage compared to other PFs at only a slight discount compared to average is a good thing.
You could cut out a lot of Randle’s attempts and raise his efficiency by a significant amount if he played like other 4s.
For blockquote you have to use the arrows (like “<") not the brackets.
@Frank
Use the greater/less than signs
not []
that “players’s meeting” tweet is rich given it says that Randle…the most unacountable/loose cannon/non-leader personality on the team…is the one who called it…that (as one of the follow up tweets said) is an indication of how messed up this squad is….i think it implodes in the next two weeks…
@cyber…no…in now way, shape or form do I want to keep Randle if given the choice…I don’t see how he really can contribute to winning on a “good” team…he is the type of guy that can “get his” on average to below average teams…
It’s tempting to wishcast a version of Randle that reigns in his worst impulses and plays to his strengths being a useful player but I just don’t think he can consistently be that. At this point I would honestly be fine with attaching one of the non-Knicks picks to move him, I just don’t see him being anything but a stumbling block for us over the life of his contract.
The fundamental issue with Randle is that the PF position has changed. A modern PFs chief responsibility is to cover the wing and the paint. Randle can do neither.
Unfortunately this will probably apply to Obi too.
Yeah I don’t see The Lakers having a lot of good options. I know it’s the Lakers and maybe they’re banking on that, but what good free agent in their right mind would willingly join that shit show right now unless it was a massive overpay? Lebron is going to fall off a cliff at any moment. AD is washed/injury prone.
And with Kyrie going full on nutso, I don’t even know if they want to go that route anymore OR maybe they’re hoping they can get him for cheap, in which case they may want to do an upgrade this season.
Thing is it’s early enough for them to turn it around NOW if they want and they could trade Westbrook for Randle and Fournier NOW as opposed to waiting till December or February. This would give them time to integrate and see if they actually help.
Also, if we don’t ask for a pick then they still have those picks to use, as noted above.
Hahaha. Then i think maybe he’ll be fired January next year, after the game in Washington on… Friday 13th.
I can’t see Mr Self Preservation actually firing Thibs. The likelihood that he’d hire a worse coach is very high, and this team with a bad coach could unravel very quickly. Leon will likely save that bullet until he’s on the hot seat himself.
Yep, Early Bird.
Randle actually has similar dimensions to Charles Oakley. He probably would have fit in fine in the 90s on defense where having a big body to defend on the block was more important.
“This is a relevant consideration for his efficiency percentiles for the reason Nicos mentioned, but what relevance does it have for his ranking in terms of shooting and finishing at the rim? Why would his comparatively high usage negatively effect his shot *distribution*?”
His ranking in terms of shooting and finishing at the rim is only relevant in the context of his overall shooting efficiency. If IQ never shot the rim or got fouled but had a .600TS% on 27% usage anyway, who would care?
The reason I brought up his efficiency at the rim is that you have repeatedly said that you don’t foresee a return to his higher TS%s of the past specifically because his shot distribution since being signed by the Knicks would make that highly unlikely, i.e. he both can’t get efficient shots at the rim any more and doesn’t want to even if he could, he’d rather take long 2’s and 3’s where he is not efficient except in empty gyms.
And lo and behold, he has traded in most of his long 2’s for shots at the rim and 3’s. His FTr is the highest it’s been since he’s been here. He’s still only shooting 33% on 3’s but it’s the shots in the paint that are raising his TS%. You don’t have to be a “big” to make that adjustment.
Someone also suggested that he would not revert to his percentage of assisted FGs from his more efficient years, yet his .492 assisted 2’s and 920 assisted 3’s are nearly identical to what they were in his NOP year, indicating that he’s playing off the ball more and is benefitting from it.
It just feels like the goalposts are being moved from what was said about indicators for significant improvement on offense going into the season.
I think Brunson is a good player, but not as good as we hoped to elevate this team to higher spots than the low seeds of the play-in. So, we got a good player but this roster won’t work, is what we seem to be concluding by now. The best plan would be to push back the timeline by trading our 3 vets (DRose, Fournier and Randle), giving a lot of playing time to the young players to see how they fare. And probably collecting a very good draft pick in the process. As it is a strong draft, there’ll be a good player available when we pick if we do this. On the flip side, if we insist on the current plan, we’ll end the season not knowing what some of the young players can do with extended time, and we’ll get a pick outside the spots where the good prospects will be. I understand keeping the plan for another month or so, to have a proper amount of games for such a decision, but they should be ready to make the decision and i’m not sure they are.
Multi year plan with the possibility of 1-2 being executed before the deadline.
1. Randle has to be moved.
2. Fournier has to be moved.
3. Add a defense first stretch PF to replace Randle and start (Obi is not the answer, as least not yet).
4. Continue developing the young players we have
5. Draft or trade for a large upgrade at one of the wing positions
6. Going forward, only add role players that defend very well (drafts or trade).
7. Baksetball IQ matters.
Short Term.
1. Continue developing young players
2. Due diligence on Randle/Fournier with acceptable deals being almost anything that makes the team more flexible without giving up a 1st round pick
3. Take a good look at Grimes when his foot is 100% and the risk of reinjury is low
4. Take a good look at Deuce when Rose inevitably needs a few games off
There is not need to panic or rush anything. We knew coming into the season this was an unfinished product with a lot of excess assets to try to finish it over time. The results are just verifying what everyone already knew. What we know better now is that moving the veteran and defense oriented players like Bullock, Burks, Nerlens, Frank, and Gibson decimated our defense. So we have to be careful about who we keep from among the young players we have and who we add going forward. Defense is a priority among role layers.
Randle is playing better offensively but even with the improvement he is not as good as Obi and on top of that Randle has been next level bad defensively. He seems to be absolutely dogging it on defense.
His effort looks terrible.
“I don’t see how he really can contribute to winning on a “good” team”
He certainly contributed heavily to winning in 2020-21 on a 4th seeded team. And that team was hardly good beyond its record. The remnants of Derrick Rose was its second-best player.
If one disputes that, it underscores that Randle has never played on an actual good team. So I’m not sure how one could possibly know what he would be if he were on one, i.e. a team with at least 2 or 3 players much better than him.
Deeefense – I know you are beating the Obi shouldn’t start drum pretty hard but him starting and getting minutes is the best way to see exactly what we have. At this point he has done everything anyone could have asked of him. His defense is better, not exceptional but solid, his rebounding is also better, again not exceptional but solid, and his 3 point shooting looks great.
We need to see if he can continue to average 20/8/2 on increased minutes as a starter. If he can without a drop in his efficiency he is a borderline all-star. If he cannot then he is probably just a bench player. At this point there is no way to know for sure but there is nothing more he can show from the bench.
“ I think the one role Fournier is actually good at right now is being the guy who sits out beyond the arc and gets open threes on kickouts from dominant players like Lebron and (recently, at least) AD. If they pair him with PatBev, they can even hide him on defense. That’s what is so mystifying about Fournier’s usage on the Knicks. He is now on the second unit where he…doesn’t shoot that much. Like, what is he even doing on this team!?!?”
Exactly this. I’m sure E4 asks himself this question every night now.
I agree, Fournier is probably wanting a trade out of here as much as we do.
“7. Baksetball IQ matters.”
I’m going with this one.
And total agreement with Ben. Obi needs playing time. We DON’T know what we have with him, Strat’s spreadsheet aside. Maybe he gets eaten up in the playoffs, but damn that would be a great result. Because playoffs. Plus maybe he’d learn something from it. And you know, get better.
Julius Randle “Preacher Of Accountability” is really funny but I’m expecting a reaction nonetheless, there’s pride involved now (or at least I hope so).
I don’t think they’re playing “against” Thibs and another no-show performance would instead say exactly that.
I believe they’ll win this game.
Wesn’t someone talking about Jimmy B’s defense being bad yesterday? That was a hell of a block on Booker.
I am not going into a maze of Randle denialism. We aren’t moving any goalposts. The goalposts in the NBA move themselves. The same way I pointed out for years that Kobe scored a ton of points on pretty mediocre efficiency, well, the same point applies to Randle. Being a high usage guy who scores around league average efficiency and doesn’t play defense doesn’t really mean much when you have a bunch of no names like Wade and Hauser running around hitting 45% of their threes. If it ever did.
When we acquired Brunson we should have done it on the Iverson Sixers model where we surrounded him with a bunch of absolute junkyard dogs. This is almost the opposite of that. Mitch and Hart are ok but we don’t have any Mckie’s.
By this standard Randle is already a borderline all-star. If all of you want to lose with Obi starting instead of Randle because it’s more fun to watch him score, just say that, because having Obi start won’t make us better. Maybe his offensive efficiency will be better but he will take less shots than Randle and the players whose shots go up to replace those missing shots won’t be more efficient than Randle in shooting. And his defense won’t be better.
As for trading Randle for Westbrook, that wouldn’t make us better either. If Westbrook actually played (instead of being waived) his defensive effort almost certainly would be bad, we know his efficiency is bad, he can’t shoot three pointers and I think the complaints here would be immediate and manifold. That’s not something I want. What’s more, the cap space we would get from Westbrook’a contract expiration will be hard to use. As I posted before, lots of teams will have cap space this summer and it’s not clear there will be a lot of highly desirable free agents to go after (Kyrie anyone?). I’m really not sure we could get someone better than Randle with that cap space. We are absolutely stuck with waiting and hoping our young players get better.
I guess not actually stuck. We could try and lose and achieve a fourteen percent chance of VW. We would have multiple competitors for that fourteen percent chance too. I leave you to w whether we have less than a fourteen percent to get better through player improvement or any other way.
Knicks fan, I’ll just say that then.
Actually agree on all your points, but you skip over one, which is what is Obi’s ceiling. He’s probably not better than Randle this year, at least at certain things (but already clearly better at others). Can he improve those things he’s not as good at? I think from the bench, not so much.
And yeah, if the choice is watching Randle hand the ball to the other team and complain to the ref while they score, and Obi running the floor like an impala, I’ll take B.
But not for Westbrook. Because I think you’re right that they’d play him because name (and trade), and that might actually be worse. In fact almost certainly would be. While blocking IQ, the other mystery that needs to be solved.
If Obi is shooting 57%+ from 2 and 40%+ from 3 while scoring over 20 points a game he will most definitely be a borderline all-star. If Randle could do that we would be having a much different discussion.
As for defense, I believe that while a fully engaged Randle can be a solid defensive player, he has certainly not been that lately. He has been absolutely dogging it lately and Obi is much better defensively this season. Anyone is better defensively at this point.
KFNINJ – I do not understand what you are saying. If Obi scores the same amount of points as Randle in less shots that is somehow bad because other people will have to take those extra shots? If Obi is scoring the same in less shots the other shots cannot be worse since by definition Randle would have had to score 0 with those extra shots. So other people taking them would have to be better.
I’m interested in Obi’s ceiling too, and maybe it’s better than I expect. I think he is actually getting enough minutes to improve, but it’s going to take months for that to happen and maybe real improvement won’t show until next season after he has a summer to work on stuff
Ben R, Obi does not score many more points per shot than Randle at the moment and he’s not getting defended the way Randle is. Per basketball-reference, Randle has 271 points on 196 attempts for 1.38 points per attempt while Obi has 131 points on 104 attempts for 1.26 points per attempt. I realize that Obi’s eFG is a little higher than Randle’s but the difference isn’t that big.
Concerns with Obadiah Toppin:
(1) Defense – he tries so I’d think he’d be better than Randle… not saying much though
(2) Rebounding – Huge concern for me, luckily we have a certain high “IQ” guard who is an excellent rebounder
(3) Shot creation – A massive (approx.) 90% of his shots are assisted. His shooting will stretch the floor, but if the offense bogs down will that be enough? Whatever your opinion of Randle doing the same, this is a concern, e.g., John Collins’s numbers look good but do you really want Collins all that bad?*
*Based on volume Obi looks like a much better shooter this year than Collins has ever been, not sure what that’s worth
When we acquired Brunson we should have done it on the Iverson Sixers model where we surrounded him with a bunch of absolute junkyard dogs. This is almost the opposite of that. Mitch and Hart are ok but we don’t have any Mckie’s.
quick isn’t mckie but he’s starting to look a bit eric snowy. a brunson/quick/mcbride polycule would be exceptionally rootable.
How many of those points come from FTs?
You are right PT. IQ actually is perfectly in the mold defensively, although without the tough guy image to this point.
Snow and Mckie and Tyrone Hill were the other guys I remember. Maybe Ratliff. And I think they added Mutombo. It wasn’t a perfect team but it made sense. It’s actually one of the few roster constructions I always think about, given that I don’t think roster construction matters that much in general.
As for the crypto stuff, I have no idea what you are saying. But I am excited for the Michael Lewis book that is coming. Although the guy on Twitter was right. If he spent six months with SBF and didn’t know what was happening I don’t want to read the book. And ditto if he did.