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65 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2022.11.07)”
Not much to say.
Clearly, based on the one whopping comment so far today.
So once again we are lucking out with an opponent missing at least one of its big guns:
MEM: JJJ
CHA: LaMelo, Rozier
MIL: Middleton
CLE: Garland
PHI: Embiid, Harden
BOS: Horford, RWIII
MIN: Gobert
and BKN will be missing Kyrie
I guess Mitch being out is a big loss, and Grimes continues to mystify but he’s not even a proven better player than the guys he’d be replacing, so on balance we’ve been pretty fortunate.
From Owen yesterday:
“I think basically all basketball analysis ends with one fact. Some players are a lot better than others.”
Yes, exactly this why I want as many minutes as possible from players who still have unknowns — real or perceived — in their skill sets. We need to learn how good/bad they really are.
On the defense, I’m curious if wiser posters believe we have a flawed scheme or have individual players who can’t physically do what’s being asked of them. If it’s the former, how do we fix? If it’s the latter, I suspect no amount of “rah rah buy in” stuff from Thibs is gonna fix it.
From Macri:
I think this is an excellent chance to pick up a road win, although if we were ever going to miss Mitch, this is the game…
On the flip side, Z-Man, it seems as if the Wolves are really struggling to play KAT and Rudy together. So Gobert’s absence may actually help them, at least offensively.
Can we make a pact that if any of us win Powerball we buy the Knicks?
Well that was predictable. KAT is a poor defender, and turning him into a stretch 4 makes then vulnerable to getting bombed like we did vs. Celts and Cavs. I don’t think it will work nearly as well there as it is in Cleveland, where those guys can both move their feet on the perimeter better than either Gobert or KAT.
Man, the way Mitchell is playing is threatening to change the calculus on whether we should’ve bit the bullet. My initial reaction was a begrudging acceptance that we weren’t in position to make the kind of trade Cleveland made, but that was when he looked more like a top 15-25 guy than a top 5-10 guy.
The trade would’ve been painful for us regardless, I mean adding Luka Doncic to this group after sending out RJ, et al. wouldn’t make us a contender. But man, if Mitchell keeps 70% of this up there’s gonna be a lot of handwringing rightly or wrongly.
Re: Donovan Mitchell, he is a great player in his own right, but now he in the absolute perfect situation for his game. The supporting cast was literally tailor made for him.
What made that trade perfect for the Cavs was being able to throw in really good players in Markkanen and Sexton, and if you include Agbaji, 6 unprotected picks and swaps, without having to make a single additional move to be a legit title contender. And they still have Ricky Rubio as another bullet in the chamber.
Obviously the correct course of action would be to fire Thibs, bench Randle, and get into the high lottery for a shot at an Evan Mobley-level lottery pick. But since that won’t happen, we have to hope that the team makes at least two picks in the teens and hits on at least one of them, while none of the other protected picks convey so that we can get in the position where making a Mitchell trade wasn’t a Melo-like dead end.
Speaking of missing Mitch, I’m wondering what happened to Sims. Last year he looked better to me than this year. And Thibs seems to think so too. He just not playing him much even though Mitch is hurt.
The best news for the Knicks thus far is that 3 November games, RJ is averaging 23-6-4 while putting up a .621 TS%. One thing that stands out is that he has only committed 6 fouls in those 3 games, meaning there is room for him to be more aggressive on D. He’s also shooting over 80% from the FT line. So while his contract is still a concern, it seems like this 22yo is coming around.
“Speaking of missing Mitch, I’m wondering what happened to Sims. Last year he looked better to me than this year. And Thibs seems to think so too. He just not playing him much even though Mitch is hurt.”
I wouldn’t read tha much into it, Thibs is tinkering and taking the opportunity to look at small lineups. Sims would probably need a few extended stints to get in the groove he was in last year. Playing spot minutes is tough.
Good points re Mitchell and Sims.
I don’t think Mitchell can change my mind about the trade. He’d have to be prime Lebron to take this team to an ECF. I don’t think he will be that this year. But he is off to a great start.
I love Mobley and I love what the Cavs have done. He is fun to watch on defense.
“I’m wondering what happened to Sims.”
Thibs is tired of the pasting he gets here, so he’s going with Randle and Obi to shut you guys up.
And hire the rest of KB to work there? 😉
Serious question: Is there anything Thibs is actually good at?
Defensively we’ve been terrible, especially guarding the 3. Yes, you can have poor personnel, but come on.. dudes are WIDE OPEN!
One thing that Thibs is terrible at is closing out on 3pt shooters after hedging towards the land. He doesn’t switch very well either.
Of course, he’s 64 years old and 80lbs overweight, so I don’t expect much improvement on that front…
$2 billion will not get it done as far as buying the Knicks.
Seriously though, one can safely assume that Thibs generates a top-notch defensive game plan based on opponents tendencies. Whether the game plan is successful depends largely on the players executing it.
Brunson is clearly getting hunted on D. You need length to mitigate that. We have four “long” players: Mitch, Cam, Obi, and Hart. Mitch is really the key to our defense because he compensates for guys getting beat off the dribble somewhat, but it clearly comes at a price on O. Obi is often a hot mess and will also be hunted if counted on as a defensive stopper, so his length is not much of an asset. Reddish is goodish on D but baddish on O.
So the alternatives…Randle, RJ, Grimes, IQ, Fournier, Rose…are not going to offer much protection for Brunson. They just don’t have the tools to play long and fast enough to keep up with teams like CLE and BOS who know how to attack, swing the ball and find shooters. And we don’t have the shooting to keep up on the other end. We seem to trade 3’s for 2’s against teams like that, and it’s a losing formula unless guys like Tatum and Brown and Spida and Garland go cold and you can lay off them a bit.
In Boston’s case, they have 4 massively switchable defenders in Horford, Smart, Tatum and Brown…and when RWIII gets back, that makes 5. Derrick White is pretty good on D for his size. Even with their bench, there isn’t anyone to hunt like a Brunson unless they have Pritchard out there. Brogdan and Williams are both strong defenders.
The C’s are going to be a problem when they get healthy (and if they stay healthy…Brgdan has been injury prone and Horford is no spring chicken). They got a bit lucky last year, but at full strength they are certainly capable of winning it all. Cleveland needs more seasoning, but when they are rolling they are pretty monstrous. Milwaukee should be there in the top 4 in the East. The other spot is pretty much up for grabs between PHI, BKN, ATL, and MIA.
maybe a only a poor chuckle…however, noise did escape my face after reading this:
One thing that Thibs is terrible at is closing out on 3pt shooters after hedging towards the land. He doesn’t switch very well either.
Of course, he’s 64 years old and 80lbs overweight, so I don’t expect much improvement on that front…
oh okay, now i’m laughing…that you z-man, i needed that…
Has this Kyrie trade been discussed yet? The idea is that we send our bad contracts, basically Randle and Fournier, to BK for Kyrie, and then we cut/buyout Kyrie. I like this so much on multiple levels.
And while I think this team is still gelling, I don’t see any possible way (barring season-altering runs of injuries) we finish with a better record than any of MIL, CLE, BOS, ATL, MIA, TOR, or PHI. With BKN, it depends on what hapens with Kyrie (fuck him and fuck them) but I would’t bet on us unless KD goes postal and demands a trade. CHI has a better and more cohesive roster than we do. WAS is probably at our level, but might gel better than we do.
I don’t see a finish above #9 in the cards for us without a MAJOR breakout from several players and a MAJOR change in Randle’s 3pt shooting.
“Has this Kyrie trade been discussed yet? The idea is that we send our bad contracts, basically Randle and Fournier, to BK for Kyrie, and then we cut/buyout Kyrie. I like this so much on multiple levels.”
SOLD!
Anyone looking at the late-lottery through 20th pick part of the upcoming draft? Who are the most intriguiging “if he can only improve at this and that…” guys that will be available in that range?
It’s still way too early to know, but so far I like Brandon Miller the 6’9” frosh SF at Bama. He’s like a good version of Cam.
I also like New Zealand guard Rayan Rupert, who looks to be a defensive whiz.
Since I like them, odds are they will both rise out of our range by draft night.
Again from Macri’s newsletter:
Has to be a first for this blog to have nothing to say.
We managed to come up with 1,000 comment threads for a basketball blog when there was zero basketball being played.
Z-man,
Think it might be time to update the 10 game forecast with an L to the Jazz
We’re not going to lose the RJ revenge game
Will it be the D’Angelo or Austin Rivers game tonight?
I actually think Edwards is going to blow up on us, but what do I know.
Good point, EB. The Jazz are overachieving and will definitely come back down to earth once the league gets a proper amount of scouting film. That said, they have a non-tanking roster with Conley, Clarkson, Olynyk, Markkanen, Beasley, Vanderbilt, and Sexton all legit rotation players and some other decent nuts and bolts. They will likely be betting favorites in that game.
More generally, I don’t think there are many easy wins in this version of the NBA, especially on the road. Every team has 4-5 guys that can get hot from 3 on any given night. And the Knicks lack consistency on both ends of the floor.
To me, our worst game this season was against CHA. That was so close to being a devastating home loss, and the non-LaMelo/Rozier version is possibly the worst roster we will face all year. That game suggested that we can easily lose to any team with an actual NBA roster. And that’s why I think the Vegas number (38.5) always made sense for us.
For me, the biggest disappointment by far to this point is IQ’s shooting. I know he’s passing and rebounding well and all that, but you just can’t have a 6’3″ nominal shooting guard out there with an eFG% of .420 on 20% usage and expect him to help you to win games. If we are gonna get 40+ wins, he has to start hitting shots.
But if this number makes sense, should we be trying to win? 38 or 39 wins probably will put us out not only the playoffs, but also the play-in.
Cyber, of course we shouldn’t be trying to win!
But alas, we are, so it becomes a question of whether we “can” win when we are trying to. Vegas said “no” before the season started. Nothing that we have seen thus far says otherwise. So it’s really about whether we can get a few extra wins beyond that “chalk” prediciton.
I mean, there’s “potential” for getting some of those wins:
-RJ “could” blossom into more than a flawed usage-eating combo wing…
-Julius “could” become a more well-rounded and heady player on both ends, the physical potential is definitely there…
-IQ “could” start kocking down shots
-Grimes “could’ get healthy and become Fournier plus defense…
-Obi “could” thrive in a larger role including reasonable time in a small lineup configuration…
-Cam “could” round off some of the jagged edges in his game and become a plus 2-way player…
-Hart and Mitch “could” become an interchangeable rim-protecting duo depending on matchups
-A trade for a versatile rotation wing “could” happen at some point…
But the default position is what we have seen thus far…a team that will flounder around the .500 mark until mid-season and will either a) continue to flounder, b) find some magic like they did in 2020-21, or c) go on the same kind of bender that wrecked last season. For now, I’m guessing some version of a) that lands us in the 10-spot, maybe 9.
I’ve withheld comment on IQ because last season he got off to such a brutal start shooting wise I was nearly convinced we’d been had by the empty gyms year yet again and he wouldn’t amount to much. Then he had a .600 TS% after the break.
So I’m not gonna hazard a guess as to what’s going on there, but yes, he absolutely has to hit a lot more shots for us to have a prayer of doing anything remotely interesting this year, and more importantly for our long-term outlook to not be incredibly bleak.
In other news, Bill Simmons said on his podcast he’s heard the Lakers might look to trade AD and naturally we were mentioned. Can’t dismiss the possibility out of hand with someone who has been as good as AD (I say “has been” because it’s been a few seasons now since he was really an elite player), but very hard for me to see the Knicks and Lakers agreeing on his value. Especially considering the Lakers traded three firsts, a swap, a borderline all-NBA candidate in Ingram, and solid players in Ball and Hart for him.
There’s a part of me that’s upset that LeBron’s still-very-good twilight years are unavoidably going to be part of a 38-win-ceiling team in LA, but then I remember that he chose and continues to prioritize his entertainment/business ventures in CA over basketball.
Lebron is 38. Not worried about it.
He should take a load off and go eat the pancakes at the Bel Air. They are amazing.
I’m thinking Thibs may actually be benching Sims to create more spacing? Is that physically possible for Thibs to give that order?
If RJ & Randle keep shooting like crap, I’m thinking we finally make a move for Myles “Eternal Trade Block” Turner.
AD would accomplish the same thing as Turner… in some theoretical world where a 30yo AD isn’t Mr. Glass.
I’m guessing, if a move gets made, AD is traded for Rose/Fournier rather than Randle to open up more cap space for LA next year.
Or even a package with Mitch plus either Rose or Fournier
AD was a guy I wanted to trade for for years.
Not sure how I would feel about it now though.
Absolutely agreed. They were pathetic in that game. Charlotte was just luckily more pathetic without Ball and Rozier.
We did bite the bullet. It wasn’t enough. The Cavs blew our best offer out of the water.
Sign me up all day and tomorrow for an Anthony Davis trade if we’re moving our long term contracts in the process. Give up Mitch, Julius (lol) and the fake 1sts and you have a deal. I’d be so excited to watch Anthony Davis and Isaiah Hartenstein as our front court, and the health concerns aren’t too bad with Obi Toppin on the roster.
Hard NOOOOOOOO on AD. He’s not the same player he used to be. He’s exactly who you don’t want to go for. It would be a massive blunder to give up anything close to what the Lakers would want for him.
“Give up Mitch, Julius (lol) and the fake 1sts and you have a deal.”
Sure, that’ll get it done! Then trade Obi for LeBron straight up and we’re in business!
The Lakers are an asset barren team that traded Kyle Kuzma and KCP away for Russell Westbrook. Smart dealing isn’t exactly what this front office is known for. Also, you probably missed the “lol” that suggested I wasn’t serious but sure. Go off.
Who actually knows what the Lakers would want for Anthony Davis, and who is paying a big price for the soon-to-be 30 year old injury prone big man?
I can’t believe so many people here think our 2 time COTY (that got screwed out of a 3rd) is a bad coach. lmao If I wasn’t already warmed up to the skepticism, I might hurt myself from laughing so hard. He took a mediocre team with Elfrid freaking Payton as the PG to the 4th seed in the east and then a mediocre team with no PG at all to 37 wins. Those are herculean efforts. We had no legit #1 option, no legit #2 option and no PG at all and people expect more? . rotflmao No coach is going to get be exactly what anyone wants, but we have one of the best coaches in the NBA. It’s the players that middle of the road partly because they are young and partly because we haven’t landed the whale yet.
Mitchell was a better fit for the Cavs because they have a few defenders that can cover for him. In NY, he and Brunson would be a problem, especially in the playoffs. The price and the defensive issues were always the major problem for NY, not whether Mitchell is a good enough scorer.
I will maintain that a 6’1” guard not named Chris Paul will never be worth five unprotected years of your draft, especially when those years don’t start until he is 29 years old. The only way that trade becomes worth it is if Evan Mobley turns into Kevin Garnett, and even then you probably could have held fast to your assets and gotten a player that better fit what they were building.
The Knicks in retrospect couldn’t have come close to matching that offer without destroying the franchise. Good for Utah. We’ll see how it works out for CLE.
I’m a hard No om Anthony Davis too simply because there’s no way the Lakers simply trade him for Randle or Barrett or whatever we can put together without asking for prime picks in return to use in other trades, and AD is just not the player he used to be, too many injuries, too many bad jumpers.
Mike D’Antoni was a two-time Coach of the Year who was also a terrible choice to coach the Knicks. So was the three-time Coach of the Year, Don Nelson. It’s almost as if context matters when considering criticism.
7 COTYs, 0 rings…
https://www.sny.tv/articles/knicks-obi-toppin-rick-brunson-argument-nothing-serious
Was anyone aware of this little dustup between Rick Brunson and Obi?
I saw it. Apparently patched up before the news broke.
If Cam can defend Ant Edwards reasonably well tonight, I think we should win this game.
With Quickley playing like shit, maybe Cam wins the starting job and Grimes eventually becomes the backup swingman? That would be an interesting twist of fate.
Small sample theater maybe, but the Cavs are 8-1 with a 11.94 SRS. Sure, they’ve played 3 OT games so far (but have won them by a combined 20 points) and the rest of their wins came by 11 points or more.
Allen is under contract for 3 more years, Mobley isn’t up for an extension until the summer of 2025, and Love is the only rotation player over the age of 28.
The Cavs are exactly the kind of team that trades for a Donovan Mitchell, even if he’s not a Chris Paul (who would probably cost about 12 1sts and swaps in today’s market). The Knicks were not.
Grimes out again…sigh..
All 30 teams in action tonight!
Yeah, Cavs are super legit. I bet they could attract some free agents next year too. Even to Cleveland.
What did Walt say about Cleveland? Something funny I recall
Donovan Mitchell is averaging 31/4.5/6.5 with a .624 TS%. He has an 8.4 BPM. He’s newly 26. I don’t think Cleveland is having buyer’s remorse.
He said it was like being traded to Siberia…
Walt Clyde Frazier tonight at Puma event: “I was traded to Cleveland. It was like getting traded to Siberia. There was one reporter. On the weekend, there was no reporter.”
I think he’s coming to see postmodern jukebox with me, geo, and jk47.