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25 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2022.09.24)”
Repost:
Now that Rose has suggested that our roster is set, here is my lists of 10 musts for the team to finish in the top 8 (assuming that some of the 9 teams definitely above them on paper (BOS, PHI, BKN, MIA, MIL, ATL, TOR, CHI, CLE ) underperform, in order of importance:
1. Julius Randle earns his contract (.560+ TS%, 3.0+ BPM)
2. RJ Barrett earns his contract (.540+ TS%, 1.5+ BPM)
3. Brunson earns his contract (.580+ TS%, 7+ AST/36)
4. Rose plays more than 50 games
5. IQ plays 1800+ minutes and averages 20+, 5+ and 5+ per 36 on a .570+ TS%
6. Grimes and Fournier play similar minutes and both have TS%s near or above .600
7. Obi plays 1600+ minutes and hits 34+% from 3
8. Mitch outplays his contract
9. Hartenstein significantly outplays his contract
10. If anyone gets injured, McBride, Reddish and Sims fill in and post positive stats
Even if we finish under the Vegas projections, it would be great if most of these things happen.
I only have one must for this team.
Wembanyama
Z-man, looking at your ten musts hammers home just how bad this roster is–basically everyone has no regression and most improve. At the same time, other than 4, 9, and 10 (which I don’t really care that much about) I would be thrilled if even three of the remaining seven musts happened. Less than that and I move into Owen’s camp.
Y’all don’t learn when it comes to these tall skinny kids huh?
i do admit we have a poor record drafting French players, in particular 7-footers.
“Wouldn’t the issue be that not only does he not think that, but that he was willing to give up a good deal of his ammo for him?”
You could be right, but I’m not the only one that thought a backcourt of Brunson and Mitchell would become problematical in the playoffs, especially if they kept RJ at SF. A front line of Mitchell and Obi/Randle was not going to make up for that lack of size. IMO that team would be a recipe for regular season success and playoff failure. Maybe it didn’t weigh heavily in the decision relative to the asking price, but I’m sure someone thought about it or at least should have.
He is not the next Weis.
It’s probably foolish to think he will be the next great star. Odds are still against and it certainly won’t be here. But he does seem far more likely to turn a franchise around than anyone discussed here in the last year.
Z-Man
If all those things happen, IMO we are going to finish with 50-55 wins. Of course I don’t expect all those things to happen. I’m hoping for a few less negative things than last year and a couple of positive developments. The key issue is defense. If we defend like a top 10 or better team, we are going to be in a lot of games and Brunson and Rose won’t outright blow all the close ones down the stretch like we did last year.
Plus, other teams won’t be as fortunate as they were last year (it was the reverse the year before). The Celtics have already lost Gallinari, their C is having knee surgery, and their excellent coach is out. Things happen. We’ll have our share of injuries but we have a very deep and balanced team right now.
If everyone comes to play DEEEFENSE every night we are going to be a fun team.
RJ Barrett has almost no chance of hitting 1.5+BPM but even if he does and goes over 54% TS that’s not worth $20M+.
Btw I wasn’t talking about Wemby being French. I’m simply saying show me the last sub 220 pound 7 foot wunderkind that worked out in the NBA. Wemby may be the most talented basketball player I’ve ever seen but I’d set his all star game appearance line at 3.5 and All NBA appearance at 2.5 just because I do not trust that body type to stay healthy.
Giannis came into the league sub-200 if I’m not mistaken
If we somehow lucked into Wemby I would trade him to the highest bidder ASAP. Dont trust that body to stay healthy over the course of an 82 game season and playoff run.
We could get a star or a great pick package for him.
The guy is an athlete. Looks more like Durant or Giannis to me than Porzingis or Gobert. Not that he will match the former two but I think he has the tools to be a true star.
If we lucked into the number 1 pick of a draft with a potential generational player and we traded him away for… more picks!? Now that would be very Knicksy!
Correct! Giannis came into the league at 196 lbs, but he was only 6’9. He’s now at 242 lbs and 6’11. It’s a risk, but you clearly have to take the guy (Wembanyama).
Wembanyama is a mix between Frank (both french) and KP (both european 7 footers). I don’t know why Strat isn’t clamoring for us to tank this season. 😀
***show me the last sub 220 pound 7 foot wunderkind that worked out in the NBA.***
I don’t know if he was the last, but Durant had a lot of question marks around his lanky, wiry frame, and his inability to bench-press 90 lbs. He was around 7′ 215 when he came into the league I think.
Which I guess is the basis of a reasonable if/then question:
IF you had the #1 pick and had to use it on one of the following set outcomes, THEN you consciously choose to use the pick on which player?
player A: 1 in 8 chance of being the next Durant (and 7 in 8 chance of being a total bust)
Player B: 1 in 4 chance of having Yao Ming’s career statistics and accolades (and 3 in 4 chance of being a 7’5″ flame-out)
Player C: 1 in 2 chance of having an Al Horford/Rasheed Wallace type of career. (and 50% chance of never stepping onto a court due to injury)
Player D: 100% chance of being just like Marcus Camby. (no all star selections, but highly productive and surprisingly durable during a 16 year career)
deGrom can’t get any of these shitty hitters out
Giannis came into the league at 6’9″ 196, but he didn’t gain 45lbs overnight.
Here’s an article: https://ballislife.com/the-greek-freak-is-getting-freakier-the-growth-of-giannis-antetokounmpo/
It goes on to say the following:
(1) The GM of the Bucks said at one point that he went up to 6’11” and 217. And since it’s the GM saying it, that probably means he was still lighter.
This was 2014, a year after Giannis was drafted. He was 19 going on 20.
(2) Giannis weighed 222 in 2016.
(3) Giannis didn’t make an all-star game until 2017, he weighed 230. He would have been 22.
Wembayana is currently 18 and turns 19 in January. He’s got 3.5yrs or so to put on 10 lbs (if 220 is your cutoff, 20 to get to Giannis’s all-star weight).
Anyways, I’m not too worried about his weight at the moment. He could gain 15lbs just from the natural aging process.
In contrast, Chet weighs 190 and is about a year and a half older than Victor. I still believe in Chet, but the weight concerns are more pronounced.
I look at Wembayana and I see Ralph Sampson. 7’4″ and 228 (Ralph), superstar in the making, multiple all-star games right off the bat (including all-star MVP), then knee and back damage slowly but surely destroyed his career — pretty much cooked four years in.
If someone from the future told me a player would only be healthy for 4 years, but would be a 4 times all star on those years, and would bring our team to one NBA Finals, i’d definitely take the guy.
(1) It’s not that I’m not worried about Victor’s weight (and height, which to me seems more worrisome), but I don’t think an 18yo is done growing yet. Maybe he’ll never fill out, but there’s a good chance he does put on considerably more weight in the future.
(2) Fwiw, he does already have an injury history. So it is a concern one way or another.
(3) Sampson came into the league at 23. Maybe Victor gets injured a lit playing skinny in the NBA sooner, but again I’d imagine he can put on more than 18lbs in 5 years.
Whay is the Knicks ceiling if iHart blossoms and puts up an All-Star type season?
Los Mets with ugly loss. Stake DeGrom to 3 -run 1st inning lead, McNeil misplays what should have been an out into 2 run hit, and Oakland plays like they have 4 gold glovers.
The good thing about stanning VW is that if he isn’t good three years from now the RJ discourse will have prepared me to never ever admit I got it wrong.