Knicks Morning News (2022.09.20)

Repeating sentiment from end of last thread, Woj threw a bucket of cold water on our double draft dreams:

If one-and-done is changed, it’s expected the starting date would be several years into the future; in part because of commitments already made by teams to trade future draft picks under the current framework of the 19-and-over system.

What is the furthest-away pick that has currently been traded? Does somebody own another team’s 2027 pick yet? Their 2029 pick?

Alan, we Knicks fans should know the answer to that one, easily. Utah owns 2029 CLE pick, unprotected. Along with 2025 and 2027, and swaps in 2026 and 2028.

I figured, Cyber. So if Woj’s reporting is correct, then the earliest the double draft could be in 2030. Which seems kind of ridiculous. If I was a teenage basketball star, I might be inclined to file a class action suit about this.

Maybe they’ll settle on middle ground (2027) ?

What I’m most excited/hopeful about for us this season.

1. Brunson. I mean, I can’t wait to see what it’s like to have a real starting caliber point guard lead this team.

2. RJ’s development. My hope is for both RJ and Randle, the arrival of Brunson will up their efficiency. But this is the season for RJ to take that step.

3. IQ, Obi and Grimes. Kind of a cheat to lump them all together like that but I expect one of them to take a leap that surprises us all. My bet is on IQ.

4. The Randle Renaissance. Look, he’s a talented basketball player and a load to handle. Dude can score and grab boards and plays good defense when engaged. If Brunson can get him to be more efficient and get the turnovers down, he gives full effort on defense and maybe the 3 point shooting returns a bit, we could be falling in love with him again.

5. Mitchell Robinson. Kind of sad to have him be the last one but if Mitch can get the free throws up to a respectable 70 or 75 percent and just add like one post move, take and make a 10 footer every now and then, he could take that next step too. I feel like we have barely talked about Mitch this off season but he is still so young and is coming into camp with a nice contract and fully healthy.

I don’t know. I look at these 5 things and I see them all as real possibilities. Of course every team says “well if X, Y and Z go well we could be good this season” but I feel like these 5 things are all strong possibilities and not just wishful fan thinking.

Swifty, like the poster in Fox Mulder’s office says, I want to believe. I’m just really dubious on Randle, who is accustomed to being a very high usage player, and fairly skeptical on RJ ever becoming efficient. The thing about Brunson is that he’s much more of a scorer than a playmaker. And while he will score far more efficiently than our two starting forwardsI don’t know how much his game is necessarily going to open up theirs.

(Remember when one of the reasons to feel optimistic about RJ was that he had the potential to be a very good secondary playmaker? He’s been decent at it, but his assist numbers have stagnated for a while now. It would help if Brunson had a relatively high-level passer to play alongside, and RJ is the only guy in the starting lineup with potential to be that. He just isn’t that yet.)

Here is my take on Randle. When he came here, he was given the role as “the man” on a shitty Fizdale team that had no point guards and 9 power forwards. His attitude wasn’t the problem that season but the Lebron point forward thing was.

Then Thibs came in and did his thing where he gets everyone to buy in on defense and play balls out. And Elf, while an absolute zero on offense, was healthy and starting and with him and IQ we were able to muddle through on defense with Randle being the main focus on offense. Then Rose came in and gave us a jolt on offense that catapulted us to the 4th seed. But we got exposed in the playoffs.

So the FO thought we’ll get Randle some help and got Fournier and Kemba. Only problem was Kemba was absolutely washed and made our defense far worse. Fournier wasn’t really the issue but his bad defense only made it worse. We went from Elf and Bullocks who combined with Mitch/Noel and effort from RJ and Randle gave us a good defense, to Fournier and especially Kemba being turnstiles on defense. And they didn’t help the offense either. So now Randle still has to be the man on offense, teams are still honing in on him but he’s told you’ve got help with Kemba but the defense is far worse too. He got in his head. Do I still try to do it all myself on offense or do I defer? Oh wait, this guy just blew by Kemba again and I gotta cover.

So he got frustrated. The expectations were higher because of the previous season. We started losing and he got more frustrated and he gave up some on defense. Then the fans turned on him and he felt betrayed by that because of how hard he had worked the previous season.

I think all of it is actually quite understandable from his perspective although he took it too far.

Now he has a REAL point guard who is in his prime. Brunson ain’t a lock down defender but he’s not going to hurt us. If Grimes starts, he can be like Bullocks 2 seasons ago. We can get back to what worked for us the previous season except our young players should all be better than they were that year. Brunson is better than Elf and old man Kemba too.

It also did not help that Rose and Noel were hurt all of last season. they were such a huge part of the previous season. Hopefully Rose is healthy but also, IQ gained some experience with him being out. And Hart should be a guy who we can rely on. Maybe Noel is the better defender but Hart will give us more on offense.

I don’t know. I see enough to believe we can be as good as we were 2 seasons ago, if not a little better.

Hard to believe DSJ is out of the league before Franky, although maybe he gets a last-second training camp invite (yes, this is an invitation for Strat to go off.)

I’m sure some teams were at least thinking about the possibility of a draft change and how it would impact the value of future picks. I’m not certain the league should actually do anything about it. Just because some teams were smart to think in those terms and other not does not mean the league is compelled to protect the dummies. No one bails out teams when they make shortsighted trades of players or players and picks. If they vote for a change I think it should go live the next year.

RJ ‘s efficiency drop last year to a large extent was a function of him shooting tougher 3s more often and not hitting the easier corner 3s nearly as well (at least in part because they were defending him better on the easier ones).

I don’t think he’s going to get a regular diet of easy corner 3s anymore, but he almost has to do better than last year. If he also feels less self inflicted pressure to score 20 PPG now that’s he’s been paid and gets a little help from Brunson’s presence his overall shot quality should improve a bit. Then whatever he brings to the table in terms of improvement will add to that. I think we could easily see a solid improvement in RJ’s efficiency this year. I doubt he’ll get it up into the 57% range or higher, but if he can get back to a little above the previous year while playing a more rounded game and getting defended better that would be encouraging.

“The thing about Brunson is that he’s much more of a scorer than a playmaker. And while he will score far more efficiently than our two starting forwards, I don’t know how much his game is necessarily going to open up theirs.”

I wouldn’t classify Brunson as either a scorer or a playmaker in his best manifestation. He’s simply a winner. I know that’s a platitude thrown around often about too many players, but I truly believe that in his case it is appropriate. He’s very capable of being the “brain” of a winning team.

In my opinion, his game and presence is not all that different than the athletically compromised version of Derrick Rose we acquired in 2021. Even Rose’s most fervent haters saw the immediate impact he had on that team, and how he became, in effect, the team’s heart and soul despite his defensive deficiencies and being labeled as a “score first” PG. I would say that guys like that “score first” because it’s usually the right play for them to do so because they are good at it. However, they also use their scoring to put teammates in position to score efficiently by getting the defense off-balance. A guy like Raymond Felton couldn’t do that because he couldn’t score effectively enough.

Put differently, if you can’t play well when you are on the floor with Jalen Brunson, you probably are not a good player.

“Hard to believe DSJ is out of the league before Franky, although maybe he gets a last-second training camp invite (yes, this is an invitation for Strat to go off.)”

DSJ is one of those guys that is physically capable of doing things that catch your eye all while the team is worse while he’s on the court.

Personally, I think DSJ deserves one more shot at the NBA from someone, as long as it’s not us. From what I gather, he was going off on Donovan Mitchell in practice games recently. So either he’s feeling good again physically, Mitchell is a scrub on defense, or a little of both. I think it’s probably the last one.

My concern about Randle is that he won’t be able to handle it when the crowd turns on him. This is for sure going to happen early on, especially when he struggles. It takes a very strong mind to tune that stuff out to the point where it doesn’t affect performance or attitude. Francisco Lindor is an example of someone who was able to do it successfully. I don’t believe that Randle has that in him, but I am willing to give him every chance to do so, especially because I do believe that he is a good guy who loves his kids and was most distressed because his son was hearing the boos and ridicule. I don’t feel sorry for him but I understand his pain. If he can’t get past that, he has to go, even at the cost of a first rounder. If he can, and accepting a lesser role is part of that, I’m fine with giving him a long leash.

I hope he is seeing a sports psychologist and working as hard on managing his emotions as he is on the physical part of the game.

DSJ seems to have no understanding of how to think the game of basketball at the NBA level. He’s the Andrea Bargnani of PGs.

DSJ has made the comment that’s he’s finally fully healthy again. I think Dallas has an opening for a guard.

What i want to see most:
1 – Grimes starting next to Brunson (do it, old man!), because if it’s Fournier, the defense will be bad and that’s not fair on Brunson. We need to put Brunson in a winning situation. I’m super interested to see how this backcourt can work, i have high expectations for those two. I’m not sure Brunson can’t be a playmaker, i think in Dallas they gave him the task to emulate Doncic when he was playing in his place, and playing alongside Doncic he couldn’t playmake because you need the ball to do it. 😛
2 – Quick. I’d prefer for us to trade DRose to clear this cloud, but looks like we won’t do it. So what i want to see is Quick being the PG on the 2nd unit. DRose is the 2nd guard and plays off the ball, he can do that. We invested a lot of time to transform Quick into a PG, and he seemed to be getting there at the end of the season. We need to keep developing his PG skills even further.
3 – RJ, of course. He’s due to make a huge leap or else the top3 pick status isn’t panning out. I’m rooting hard for him to become a star and prove us all that we already have a 1B or 2A kind of player. But as i can read stats, i’m not holding my hopes (too far) up.
4 – Mitch and Hart. How will Mitch play now that he has the money? Can Hart really be an effective stretch-5?
5 – Obi. I’d like to see him play more, but with our Randle redemption project i think it’s more likely that we don’t get to see that. Yeah, it’d be good if Randle got better, but i don’t like him, this wasn’t just a bad season, he was a bad teammate and that’s not acceptable. And on top of that he’s blocking Obi, i can’t understand why we didn’t unload Randle this offseason. There’s a decent chance his value gets even worse the more time we wait to do it.
Basically i want to see everybody except the vets. 😀

Here’s a great article about Brunson when he was still in HS:

https://www.espn.com/chicago/story/_/id/12594857/jalen-brunson-potential-next-long-line-great-basketball-stars-chicago

It’s truly amazing to reflect on what he has accomplished since that time. I am inspired by this kid. No matter how it turns out, I am thrilled at the prospect that he is going to be wearing the orange and blue for a long time. If KBers truly appreciate the game of basketball when played at its most intelligent level (see: Knicks circa 1968-1974) then this is the guy we need to hang our hat on.

“DSJ has made the comment that’s he’s finally fully healthy again.”

He always has an excuse.

None of the Kemba stuff had anything to do with Randle melting down. He melted down from virtually the beginning of the Hawks playoff series.

Jalen Brunson has never averaged so much as 5 assists per game in an NBA season. Nor did he in the Mavs playoff run last spring. If you’re looking for Chris Paul or John Stockton, you’ll have to look elsewhere. He’s a combo guard.

Randle reacted poorly to Kemba from minute one, it seems. And not so much because of his defense — because Julius wasn’t exactly trying on that end, either — but because he seemed lost without having the ball in his hands so much. His usage rate was a little over 25 in his last year in LA, close to 28 when he was in NOLA, and hovering between that and close to 30 in New York. This is not just a case of Fizdale and then Thibs giving him the keys to the car. This is the kind of player he sees himself as, and the way he knows how to function on a basketball court. If Brunson is handling the ball a lot, and if we are trying to showcase RJ more, what the hell is Julius going to do? He has the skills to be a good complementary player, but can he wrap his head around the idea and agree to do it?

Thinking Randle is all of a sudden going to just voluntarily downsize his role is nothing more than wishcasting. There’s no evidence at all that he’s willing or able to do it.

It’s incumbent on Thibs, whose job could be at risk, to get Randle to adapt his game to fit the best interests of the team. He can take a cue from Brian Daboll, who effectively benched Golladay because he could not outperform David Sills ( though Golladay’s issue may be more physical decline than attitude).

The difference between the two situations, Bo, is that the Giants can already treat Golladay as a sunk cost. This is a rebuilding year, and they can cut him after the season without destroying their salary cap situation. (They would have done it this year, but he would have cost more to cut than to keep.) And Golladay already seems to be melting down over his reduced role. I want Obi playing a whole lot more. But burying Randle in the first season of a four year deal would create a whole lot of problems.

Alan, good point! Thibs has to try to rebuild Randle’s value for a possible trade, if not for the good of the team. That said, if Randle would not listen to Kenny Payne, then short of hiring Randle’s mom as a bench coach, Thibs has to reallocate some of his playing time, even if it’s not an outright benching ala Golladay.

I really don’t think what happened to Randle last year is confined to the basketball court–it was the pouting when the team was winning that convinced me of this. That is why I believe a change of scenery is best for everyone. Since that now looks unlikely, I think the only course is tough love–adopt or get benched. The crowd is less likely to turn on him if he gets benched for bad play.

“E, all merc’d outsays:
September 20, 2022 at 10:36
Jalen Brunson has never averaged so much as 5 assists per game in an NBA season. Nor did he in the Mavs playoff run last spring. If you’re looking for Chris Paul or John Stockton, you’ll have to look elsewhere. He’s a combo guard.”

Thanks, I’m glad we established that Brunson is not one of the best guards in the history of the game.

Beyond that, I’m not sure what your comment means. Do you mean it as a slight to Brunson’s playmaking ability or to his ability to run an offense effectively? Or that he can’t be counted on to put up higher assist numbers without dramatically increasing his TOV% or hurting the offense in some way?

Let’s see: last year, Brunson played in 16 games without Luka. In those games he played 34.3 mpg and averaged 7.5 assists and 2.1 turnovers and the team was plus 71 points in 583 minutes with him on the floor.

In the 3 playoff games that Luka didn’t play, he played 39mpg and averaged only 5.3 assists but had a AST/TOV ratio of 5.3 while scoring 32ppg on shooting splits of 51/41/85.

So if by combo guard you mean he is equally proficient as a scorer and playmaker, I totally agree. If it’s meant as some sort of pejorative pidgeonholing, I don’t.

Maybe Noel is the better defender but Hart will give us more on offense.

iHart is much better defender than both Noel and Mitch. Better rim protector; he can also guard the PmR and switch to defend guards at an elite All-NBA first team defense level.

full disclosure: talking my own book.

“BernieErnie says:
September 20, 2022 at 11:19
I really don’t think what happened to Randle last year is confined to the basketball court–it was the pouting when the team was winning that convinced me of this. That is why I believe a change of scenery is best for everyone. Since that now looks unlikely, I think the only course is tough love–adopt or get benched. The crowd is less likely to turn on him if he gets benched for bad play.”

I agree with this wholeheartedly. It will be interesting to see how he processed the negative karma from last year and reacts to the crowd when the inevitable boos and O-BI TO-PPIN and R-J BA-RRETT chance start to ring out. As E said, there is no evidence to suggest that he will willfully and/or successfully adapt. But he should get every chance to do so, and ample rope to hang himself.

He melted down from virtually the beginning of the Hawks playoff series.

He didn’t melt down in the Hawks series. He just played poorly. The meltdown was with the fans and team and that happened well into last seaon.

I think the distinction is important. One was just not playing well when the competition got harder. The other was an emotional/mental thing that could be a sign that he’s not cut out for NYC or maybe he was just having a rough time and is over it now. We don’t really know.

Plenty of really good players have bad playoff series in their careers.

Not surprised at all that DSJ is having trouble hooking on with a team. The guy has yet to grow up. Maybe he will in time to carve out a rotation role with a team before his athleticism is fully depleted, maybe not.

I agree with (Swift?). Julius couldn’t adapt to the laser focus on him in the Atlanta series, which while on him (and Thibs) isn’t a meltdown per se. Reminded me of when Riley’s laser gameplan killed Linsanity.

It’s certainly possible that this led to bad mental gymnastics during the offseason that carried through into the next season and helped cause his meltdown. Who knows, I’m not his shrink, and it’s a fascinating story line going into this season.

I think DSJ’s best course of action would be go over to China (a la the Vaseline eater), and become a highlight reel dunking machine.

d-mar, maybe DSJ should figure a way to play in Eurobasket and be the MPV…
🙂

If DSJr can fix whatever the Knicks did to break his shot, then he could be a useful 6th man for someone

***He didn’t melt down in the Hawks series. He just played poorly. The meltdown was with the fans***

IF Randle melts down with fans, which of the following assumptions must be true?

a) he played well in 2021 because there were no fans
b) he played poorly in the playoffs in 2021 because there were fans
c) he played poorly in 2022 because there were fans
d) he played poorly in 2020 because there were fans
e) he played well in New Orleans because there were no fans
f) he would have played well at the old Boston Garden because there were no fans

The wild thing about RJ & Randle (and a bunch of other NBA players) is that it would be extremely simple for them to become significantly more efficient and there’s something like a 0% chance either one of them will do it.

Starting lineup for the All NBA Headcase Team?

Randle? Simmons? Fultz…?

PS — I mean that “gently” since I’m generally happy for anyone (except Michael Jordan) to overcome problems and succeed.

Someone mentioned we’re not talking about Mitch enough, so here, this in from ESPN NBA player rankings, Mitch is ranked 98th this year (not ranked last year). With this said:

One huge question for 2022-23: How much will Jalen Brunson’s arrival help Robinson? One of the league’s premier lob finishers, Robinson didn’t enjoy great setup play last season. Enter Brunson, whose 61 passes leading to dunks last season were more than any New York starter completed, according to Second Spectrum tracking.

He didn’t melt down in the Hawks series. He just played poorly.

*********************
He melted down. His body language was bad from like the second possession and he got into that quasi-fight in Atlanta, which was pure temper tantrum.

E is a master psychologist and has deep insight into the minds of the Knicks front office

Pelton’s NBA player rankings (26-100) are out on ESPN.com (aim is to rank on 2022-23 play, only):

Mitch — 98 (between Kevin Love and Grant Williams)
Randle — 71 (between Al Horford and MPJ)
Brunson — 67 (between Myles Turner and Desmond Bane)
Barrett — 63 (between Jalen Green and Jerami Grant)

Cue TNFH’s “league-wide draft” …..

Barrett at 63 is just ridiculous. That’s insane.

Brunson, Randle, Rj = lot of mouths to feed, as people have noted frequently. I honestly don’t see how things go smoothly but, hey, it could happen.

CBS Sport’s Top100 is out too. Randle is 74th, RJ is 63rd and Brunson is 60th. Mitch doesn’t make the list. Our previous building block (KP) is 85th. Our recent, and future, targets are 41st (Dejounte), 36th (Shai) and 22nd (Donovan Mitchell).

Randle and RJ are clown rankings bro. Clown rankings.

Seems like there are some serious believers in RJ’s year 4 leap out there in the wider world. Either that or the people who make these lists saw how much Seth Partnow got yelled at for not ranking RJ on his list and decided it just wasn’t worth it.

Nothing would change my outlook on the Knicks like RJ making this great leap. But I just don’t get how the bulls can be so bullish.

Hmm…Kevin Pelton ranks KB’s gold and silver medalists in the Most Detrimental Player of the 2021-22 NBA Season pageant in his top-100? And CBS independently does the same thing? Must be a conspiracy.

DRed, you really believe there’s 0% chance that RJ can make a huge leap? Care to elaborate?

NBA Rank is hardly determined by Pelton alone, it’s the consensus of ESPN’s “experts.” They poll over 200 “reporters, editors, producers, and analysts.”

It’s generally complete garbage that should be ignored. IIRC Kobe was regularly in the top 15-20 even when he reached the absolutely shameless gunner stage of his career.

RJ and Randle’s ranking tells me that the NYK PR department is doing a hell of a job. All hail Steve Stoute!

Just scrolling through this year’s NBA Rank, it is in fact garbage that should be ignored. The first thing I noticed was Dillon Brooks is ranked fairly far ahead of Anfernee Simons. That’s a joke.

Then I noticed Russell Westbrook is ranked ahead of Desmond Bane. That’s downright disqualifying.

I stopped scrolling at that point but I’m sure there’s other egregious nonsense.

Let’s put a lid on the NBA Rank talk.

The rankings are pretty silly but maybe Randle being in the top 75 on both lists would mean there might be some kind of a market for him. I still think dumping him to Indiana with picks attached or doing a Hayward swap or maybe a Westbrook swap could work. We need to forget getting anything in return and treat him like the slightly toxic asset he is. Moving him needs to be a priority.

Kevin Pelton ranks KB’s gold and silver medalists in the Most Detrimental Player of the 2021-22 NBA Season pageant in his top-100? And CBS independently does the same thing? Must be a conspiracy.

Does it logically follow that RJ and Randle were not two detrimental players in the 2021-22 because a panel of internet voters predicts they will be the 63rd and 71st most productive players in 2022-23?

Do you believe NBArank holds more validity than BPM, TS%, VORP, and other various statistics?

Are these real positions?

***************************

Yeah, because all those metrics measure what’s already happened, whereas NBARank is trying to project 2022-23 performance and contribution. That’s it. It’s not even an asset ranking; it’s strictly “What’s our best take on what’s going to happen next year and next year only.”

So RJ and JR can both be seen as trashily detrimental last year, but still be predicted to rank where they rank for this year. There’s no inconsistency.

are the rankings purely tied to previous performance, or in part do they account for potential performance?

BPM also has some players ranked in positions that are insane, should we forget this stat altogether? Of course not. Top100 lists are like that, there’ll be some players wrongly ranked, maybe 20, or 30 even, but the rest is a list we can use to check how players are being valued. Picking 2 or 3 mistakes and dismissing the whole list seems strange to me. I bet that if RJ and Randle were out of the list, we’d have a lot more support on the validity of said list.

“Note: ESPN’s NBArank panel, composed of over 200 reporters, editors, producers and analysts, were asked to rank players based on their predicted contributions — quality and quantity — for the 2022-23 season only.”

are the rankings purely tied to previous performance, or in part do they account for potential performance?

Yeah, it’s a mix between past performance and a prediction on how will the player do in 2022-23.

In terms of the league-wide draft, looks like if you use the CBS list, only the Magic, Spurs, Rockets, and Jazz don’t have a player ranked higher than the Knicks’ highest-rated player — Brunson at 60. ESPN is way higher on Jalen Green than CBS is, he’s ranked higher than Barrett, the Knicks’ highest-ranked player there.

Remember playing nba fantasy for the first time, ten plus yrs ago, losing the live draft, playing with autoselected players based on nba rankings and finally winning the tournament!
These rankings may be not exactly accurate but they’re not also tarot card reading…

As far as the league-wide draft goes, these lists are just for the upcoming season. In a more holistic draft the Rockets and Magic have guys going ages before any of our guys.

We’re probably just ahead of the Jazz and Spurs because they made a very conscious and strategic decision to trade their good players, but this will only last 9 months or so. Both of those teams’ upcoming draft picks are a near-lock to be better assets than any of our guys.

Like it or not Randle is productive.
Whether he can be a healthy part of a winning team or a cancerous egoistic one that will decay and be remembered as an albatross it’s his own decision.
If He doesn’t want to succeed Nobody can’t help him.

The thing i like to see most this season?
As most if not all knicks fans wanna see JBrunson transforming the whole starting squad.
The guy I’d love to see succeed most?
JSims
Despite being the third C in the rotation i like this kid’s demeanor and love to see him make it in this league.

i like this kid’s demeanor

i’ve been very pleasantly surprised to date on what he can bring to the court…

i think you can run him out there this season with the expectation that there won’t be too tremendous a drop-off if he fills in for mitch…

just looking at summer league though – it sure seems like maybe he can do more…

“Do you believe NBArank holds more validity than BPM, TS%, VORP, and other various statistics?

Are these real positions?”

I don’t think it’s a question that needs to be answered.

Re stats: I think that all basketball metrics are subject to interpretation, especially those based solely on box score stats. This is especially true when attributing credit or blame for team success or failure. Based on my interpretation of both Randle’s stats and the team’s stats, I don’t accept the reasoning behind “the most detrimental player in the NBA” judgment. He was in the shitty lineups that he was in and expected to play played the outsized role that he played. In essense, he was the most high-profile player in the two lineups with the most minutes, and received the brunt of the blame that I feel might have been more equitably distributed. That doesn’t absolve Julius from blame, just points out that there were many mitigaging circumstances that call the label of “most detrimental” into question.

Re rankings: I don’t think that projecting that Randle will regress to the mean of his past 5 years and be on the back end of the 100 best starters in the NBA (assuming nearly everyone on the list is a starter) is particularly outlandish, or even unlikely. He’s been at that level in 3 of his last 5 years. He’s 27 years old, fully healthy, and likely will be in a more balanced and capable lineup than he was last year. He has a history of rebounding from bad years. Frankly, I think it’s a more likely outcome than a repeat of whatever happened last year.

If that’s not good enough for you, here’s where we have some common ground: let’s say that I convinced you to accept that projecting Randle to be the 74th best player in the NBA next year is fair, even accurate. We certainly would agree that having #74 as your high-usage go-to guy doesn’t bode well for team success. Even as your second star, #74 aint great shakes because every playoff team has 2 or more players higher on the list than #74. But having #74 as your third or fourth best option on offense would be fine. That’s true for nearly everyone in that range.

Which brings us back to that fundamental question: Is Randle simply “bad” or just bad for the role he held last year, and on a team without someone even in the top 20-30 of those rankings? I lean more towards door #2, but respect that others are more pessimistic.

We’re probably just ahead of the Jazz and Spurs because they made a very conscious and strategic decision to trade their good players, but this will only last 9 months or so.

So right now we’re the 3rd worst team in the NBA, and we’ll be the worst team of all 30 teams in 9 months? Do you really believe that?

In terms of future path to contention based on current assets, third-worst is probably generous. If you throw in the cluelessness about the concept of purgatory, it’s probably worst.

If the question is “who’s best set up to win 45 games in 2025?” they’re not the worst. But wrong questions tend to beget wrong answers.

I believe that if the players buy in Thibs’s DmadnessPlan we’re going to BingBong hard this year.
If not prepare for End of a few Eras…

Cyber, that’s quite far from what I said.

Trailer for HBO’s Linsanity doc which I just learned about: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSU2j8FJi_M

Looks pretty good and I’d love to revisit the most exciting Knicks’ moment of the last 20 years.

+1 on wishing JSims a good season.

Thx, ThisChicanery for that Linsanity link. Hadn’t heard about it. I’m verklempt all over again …

Cyber, that’s quite far from what I said.

Not trying to pick on you, just to make myself clear. I was talking about our position assets-wise, which i thought was what you were talking about. Lakers have a strong chance that Lebron starts his decline and AD never gets his career back on track because of injuries. Kings, should i explain their situation? Even Orlando and Rockets are not a lock to turn it around. Their players still need to fulfill their potential. Or are the Knicks players the only ones who won’t fulfill their potential? Have you seen the Spurs high draft picks lately (Lonnie Walker, Vassel, Primo)? Who says they’ll draft a good player, some bad luck with the ping pong balls, they select 5th and pick a player like those. I could go on, but what i mean is, if the other teams have potential, so do the Knicks. We have RJ, Grimes, Quick, Obi, Mitch, Hart. Let’s say Quick, Grimes and RJ will reach their potential, now the team looks a lot better, only needing a star PF to be a great team. I’m not Swift (don’t be mad, i love your optimism) and i don’t believe 100% this is what’s going to happen, but i think you have 0% on this happening and that’s also wrong.

In terms of future path to contention based on current assets, third-worst is probably generous. If you throw in the cluelessness about the concept of purgatory, it’s probably worst.

If the question is “who’s best set up to win 45 games in 2025?” they’re not the worst. But wrong questions tend to beget wrong answers.

awwwwwww c’mon E…that ain’t fair…

the whole 3rd worst roster in the league thing is some serious new york hyperbole…

i forgot what our “predicted” win total for next year is, but we should be a 38 to 44 win team next year…we won 37 last year with some real issues going on…

there’s going to be at least 7 to 9 teams with a worst record than us next year…

or, are you saying in the year 2025 we’ll have the 3rd worst roster in the league?

Some notes from the CBSSports List:

Bucks had 3 players in the top 25

Celts had 7 players in top 100

The Bucks, Warriors, Sixers, Celts, Griz, Suns, Pels, Wolves, Cavs, And Raptors all had at least 3 players higher than #60 where our first player was picked.

Six teams had 4 or more players ranked better than Randle.

All 5 Suns’ starters were ranked higher than our highest ranked player (Brunson)

dang but you lot are an infectious bunch…

spent a good bit of the day worrying if the car dealer people was gonna try to hose poor al when he showed to simply buy a car…a promised vehicle with a promised price…

hope things went smooth today al…

those are some discouraging numbers z-man…

if you’re someone hoping for a winning season – you gotta really be hoping the sum is greater than its parts…

i intend to start the season hoping for wins…come february we’ll see how i feel then 🙂

The roster is one thing
The other is the coach
And there’s also the game plan
It’s like the orchestra, the conductor and the composition
Don’t expect to be blown out by a Top Karajan led Orchestra playing Old McDonald had a farm Ee i ee i o
Neither by a bunch of amateurs playing Beethoven’s 9th
But if these three factors meet each other in satisfactory quality Everything is Possible
Remember the previous season Celtics?
They had some fine players and a brand new smart coach. They were missing the game plan.
When they found it and started believing in it they turned their season around.
Otoh We saw super talented teams that went nowhere…
Talent is badly needed in this league but it takes a few more ingredients to win it all

Hat’s off to Geo for knowing and caring about so many of us.

@Cyber You mentioned seeing insanely high bpm’s for some players. I can’t remember ever seeing anyone with a large sample fitting that description. Can you give me an example?

walkerandbendercornerstones

I agree with just about your entire lengthy post from earlier in the day.

@Cyber You mentioned seeing insanely high bpm’s for some players. I can’t remember ever seeing anyone with a large sample fitting that description. Can you give me an example?

Last season, Kevin Love was 17th, Horford 18th, Sabonis 21st, Harrell 24th, Mitch was 39th (we can agree he’s not a Top50 player, right?), Steven Adams 41st, Capela 42nd (and he had a bad season), Valanciunas 47th, Tyus Jones 48th. None of these players is a Top50 player. Well, Sabonis was 47th and 50th on the Top100 lists, so maybe he’s borderline Top50, but BPM has him way higher. I think the stat has a flaw if the player is a C, or sometimes if he’s a backup (like Love and Jones). But i use it to compare players, having the flaws in mind, i think we can still get a good analysis.

The car is purchased!!!!

I created a spreadsheet where I listed each team’s top 100 players, then did the following calulation to rank their starting lineups overall:
-Multiplied their top-ranked player’s rank by 1, their second-ranked player by 2, third ranked by 3, etc. (if a team only had 3 ranked players, I filled in the blank with a “100” since by then I assumed it’s just a generic NBA starter.) So the maximum value a team could get is 100*(1+2+3+4+5) which totals to 1500.
Then I subtracted the team total from 1500 so that high scores would be better (the other way was disorienting, sue me!)

So, for example, the two teams with no top-100 players (Spurs and Rockets got 0 points (1500-1500=0)

Results:
Celts were tops overall with 784 points, followed closely by Suns with 778 (so those woud be conference finalists.)

The East came out like this:
Top 6: Celts, Raps, Cavs, Sixers, Bucks, Nets
Play-in: Bulls, Hawks, Heat, Knicks

The West:
Top 6: Suns, Dubs, Pels, Nuggets, Wolves, Griz
Play-in: Clips, Lakers, Blazers, Mavs

Obviously this list is “garbage” and the methodology crude, but I wonder whether the order would change much with a more refined list and the same methodology. Obviously leaving the bench out of the calculation is a serious deficiency, but at the very least it seems like it did a reasonable job of creating 3 groups in each conference: top-6, play-in and lottery teams.

YES!!!!

The pessimistic view is that the east is very tough and the Knicks are probably going to be battling for the 10th seed assuming Charlotte drops down a notch the Wizards are better with a healthy Beal and a full season of KP.

The optimistic view is that everything that could possibly go wrong went wrong last year, but this year we are going to see a turnaround from Randle/RJ with better PG play, Grimes will take over the former defensive role Bullock had, Brunson will be a huge upgrade from last year (and Payton), Rose will have his issues but he’ll give us solid minutes for most of the season and give us solid PG play 48 minutes a night (could be a sign of the apocalypse), Obi, Quick, Reddish, and Mitch will all inch forward, Hart will be even better than we think, and our bench is going to be killer good.

I’m starting to lean towards the latter. 45 wins is doable.

I’m sure there will be injuries and a few other negative surprises, but we have excellent depth. This team is going to surprise on the upside. So let it be written, so let it be done!

Great news, Alan. Congrats. 😉 It was worth the wait. Now you can start a podcast where you do your interviews on your car! 😀

Timberwolves have 3 in the top 32. One was acquired with the number 1 pick overall in 2020 when they won 19 games. The Knicks spent that season chasing completely counterproductive marginal wins on the backs of uber-mercs like Elfrid Payton, Marcus Morris, Alec Burks, Reggie Bullock, Julius Randle, etc., and wound up winning 21 and drafting eighth.

Vintage Knicks. Philosophically, they haven’t changed a lick, although certainly this year’s team projects to be better than ’19-’20’s.

And the Timberwolves are still not a guaranteed contender. They’re kinda maybe on the cusp. With three top 32 players, one of whom might be top 20 at this time next year. Which just goes to show how very, very far away the Knicks are.

geo, the one thing the Knicks might have going for them vs. other teams is that there isn’t much separation between their best and their worst rotation players. A bench of Hartenstein, Obi, IQ, Rose and Fournier/Grimes/Cam is gonna be a problem for other teams’ bench unit. But we are almost certainly a play-in team, and more likely than not will have to win 2 play-in games for the 8th seed.

I should note that 7 of the top 10 teams in my take with a grain of salt calculation were EC teams.

“A bench of Hartenstein, Obi, IQ, Rose and Fournier/Grimes/Cam is gonna be a problem for other teams’ bench unit.”

IMO we have one of the best benches in the league.

I like that z-man, no serious rotation stars, but overall fairly solid rotation…

I know I’m overly fixated on one single roster position for the new york knicks, but brunson, rose, quik and evian can all move the ball pretty well…

it’ll be interesting over the season to see how much offense grimes can create…

at this point, I’d prefer to see RJ and julius not do too much creating…

“Timberwolves have 3 in the top 32.”

That’s great for them! But after not winning a single playoff series in 18 years, they are hardly an argument for sound managerial competence. After enduring 8 straight miserable seasons, the Wolves tanked their way to a 25% chance of drafting KAT in 2015, then proceeded to win zero playoff series in the next 7 years. In the 5th of those 7 years they tanked their way to a third seed in the lottery with a 14% chance of the #1 pick and a 50+% chance of picking 5-7, they lucked into another #1 pick (god forbid we ever move up even when we do tank!)

Now, they traded four firsts out to 2029, a pick swap, and this years first rounder to get the 29th ranked player. It will be interesting to see how things pan out after this all-in move, but as you said, nothing is assured.

Cyber, you’re reading way more into my comment than I actually said. I said if there was a league wide re-draft, the Knicks would probably be the 28th team to have a player picked. Before the Spurs and Jazz strategically traded their good players, we’d probably be dead last.

This doesn’t have to be a huge problem…if the team it applies to has a plan to fix its high-end talent deficit e.g. the Jazz and Spurs planning to pick highly in the draft(s).

It’s a huge problem if the team it applies to has no plan to address this deficit. I won’t say anymore because it will make people mad at me but hopefully you catch my drift.

***I created a spreadsheet where I listed each team’s top 100 players, then did the following calculation…***

I guess the thrill of golf wore off already. (You are going to make those retirees feel so inferior when you arrive in Bologna with your construction efficiency spreadsheets.)

I just realized this is the first new car I’ve ever owned. Huh.

Knicks not having Big Dogs is very well known around the league and no one denies it.
The fact that we’re the most valued Team of the league tho despite not being successful and also the attempt to build a respectable situation during the last few yrs could attract one or two biggies in the near future, right?
Ain’t this possible or are we still seem like a hopeless place for a big dog to come?

geo, the Knicks can fix their high-end talent deficit by continuing to hit singles and doubles in the draft, free agency and trades until one of three things happen:
1) a non-top-of-lottery player turns into high-end talent (examples: Giannis, Jokic, Kawhi, Bam, Booker, Spida, Gobert, Siakam, Butler, SGA, Draymond, Middleton, maybe Maxey, maybe Hali)
2) a free agent wants to come here and will take less than the 5-year max to do so
3) a high-end talent will request/demand a trade under less favorable conditions for the trading team (e.g. in a contract year)

None of these methods are as likely to land a high-end talent at a non-all-in cost as tanking for several years (in a general sense at least, i.e. ditching all vets and playing the kids regardless of record.) There’s no way to dispute this.

But that doesn’t mean that hitting singles and doubles to keep building up a competitive roster while laying in wait is not “a plan” or. “direction.” It also doesn’t mean that what the Wolves or Cavs gave up for Gobert and Mitchell is what all such deals will cost in the future, or that high-end free agents are extinct. So long as you incrementally upgrade your roster, and have draft assets in surplus, good things can happen.

Direction Alert
We got the Theatre, the conductor and the orchestra
We’re just waiting for the soloists

And We’re already Sold Out!
Faith and Patience babes!

“Donnie Walsh says:
September 20, 2022 at 21:32
***I created a spreadsheet where I listed each team’s top 100 players, then did the following calculation…***

I guess the thrill of golf wore off already. (You are going to make those retirees feel so inferior when you arrive in Bologna with your construction efficiency spreadsheets.)”

Nah, played yesterday. I was actually trying to distract myself from the the aftermath of learning that my D3 volleyball player might have a serious knee injury and needs to schedule an MRI. As they say, you are only as happy as your least happy kid.

I’m also finally getting around to replacing a length of sheet rock on a section of ceiling after a serious leak a few months ago. It’s so freaking tedious and I’m not very good at taping but it will save me probably $1000 and I have the time, so Bologna will have to wait a while.

As i often say to a coworker of mine (just before he’s ready to fuk things up):
‘If you want to be taken seriously
You have to be serious’
And…Like it or not… the Knicks are serious lately
Expect the “Stray” Big Dogs to take them seriously soon…
Woof Woof Woof

#you are only as happy as your least happy kid#

True for a pet also
My best wishes for a quick recovery zman

I mean yeah, if some unlikely stuff happens the Knicks’ position can improve. I just don’t get why this continually gets pointed out as if it’s remotely unique. The Wizards can also draft the next Giannis.

Smart teams can reduce the uncertainty. Obviously no one can eliminate it, but smart teams can give themselves a lot of leeway.

We’re not a smart team, so we sit around and win 37 games hoping we draft the next Giannis, or high-level free agency becomes a real thing again, or someone demands a trade to us and only us and his team abides.

Sorry to hear about the knee injury. If the way my dad *still* reacts when I let it slip that I’m dealing with some injury or sickness is any indication I’d imagine you’re pretty worried.

If it’s any consolation, she’s almost definitely much less worried than you.

Thanks TNFH and nu ur nx, much appreciated!

Tanking Forever was a Philadelphia Experiment, Tanking every now and then to get a top talent is a usual nba thing.
Becoming a desired destination is another usual nba strategy that would be good for the Knicks to try too!

“The Wizards can also draft the next Giannis.”

The Wizards are an interesting team. They have some nice pieces and I wouldn’t be shocked if they wind up somewhere in the play-in. Johnny Davis may have been a nice get in the draft. They have a nice product to put our on the floor for their fans this year. As to the future, I’m not a fan of Beal’s contract and who knows what will happen with KP and Kuzma next year?

One of the wildest Yankee games I’ve ever seen.

wishing your daughter well…that’s a tough one, my goodness…until they aren’t, gotta believe the tests results will be positive…take it from there…

I know that many kbers are fascinated with the draft and almost junkies to predict the hidden talents and the busts.
I get that following the Ncaa and playing the scouting game can be fun

BUT

Let’s Not Be Delusional Worshippers of the PhilaExperiment and forget about Reality cause after yrs and yrs of analysis we’ve seen in this blog that constantly tanking teams are constantly in the bottom while Now and Then Tanking teams and Desired Destinations usually contend for the chip.
As my ancient perverted ancestors used to say before starting their Dionysian orgies…

Pan Metron Ariston

We did our Tanking
Now it’s time for The Next Step
Becoming a Destination

Walt Perrin is the plan. He assembled the best team in the league in 2021. He used the 13th and 27th picks to do it. He’s in our front office.

There’s a model. It’s proven. We’re doing it.

“We’re not a smart team, so we sit around and win 37 games hoping we draft the next Giannis, or high-level free agency becomes a real thing again, or someone demands a trade to us and only us and his team abides.”

a) I mentioned that the roster can improve incrementally by hitting singles and doubles in the draft, free agency and trades, so not sure “sit around and win 37 games” is what they’re trying to do.

b) you don’t have to draft the next Giannis…the next SGA, Mitchell, Maxey, Bam, etc. would do just fine.

c) not sure why you think that free agency won’t become a thing again…it doesn’t have to be limited a superstar in his prime. It’s still undetermined where Brunson tops out. If he turns out to be better than FVV, or on a par with 26yo Kyle Lowry (don’t laugh, their stats are reasonably comparable) does that count somewhat as high-end talent? CP3 went to the Suns well past his prime and that seems to have worked out well.

*here’s a comparison between Brunson’s last two seasons (ages 24-25, 4200 minutes), and Lowry’s first two seasons after he was traded to the Raptors (ages 26-27, 4900 minutes)

https://stathead.com/tiny/MBBKo

Lowry didn’t make an all-star team until he was 28, and then made 6 straight appearances. He didn’t post a higher TS% than Brunson’s .583 last year until he was 30 years old, and except for his first 3 all-star years his usage high was 23.1 and was mostly at 20 or below until he turned 28. He averaged more assists than Lowry but also more turnovers. He was clearly a better defender despite being even more undersized. I don’t think Brunson will be a 6-time all-star or anything, but it will be interesting to see whether he flourishes (or falters) in a less restrictive situation.

Timelord just had another knee procedure. If Horford finally shows his age that Celtics team is primed to disappoint

***Even Orlando and Rockets are not a lock to turn it around. Their players still need to fulfill their potential… I was actually trying to distract myself from the the aftermath of learning that my D3 volleyball player might have a serious knee injury and needs to schedule an MRI.***

First off, sorry about your daughter’s knee. Hope the mri comes back negative.

Second off, speaking of Orlando meeting their potential and career threatening knee injuries, is Jonathan Isaac ever going to play again, or is he done in this league. He was breaking out as a real game changer when he got hurt, but it’s been TWO YEARS now. And the Magic haven’t even said yet whether he’s ready for training camp. Yeesh. (Has anybody ever missed two years and just picked up where they left off? The only guy that even comes to mind is McDyess, and, though his elder incarnation was admirable, he wasn’t ever his 20 year old self again.)

(*still… the irony never gets old that he blew out the same knee he refused to take during the anthem with all of his teammates. Part of me doesn’t miss him at all)

I think the Celts overachieved last year and got a bit lucky in the playoffs. I know they picked up Brogdan but he’s injury-prone their bench is only so-so and they are very thin at the 4-5. The East is big!

***Walt Perrin is the plan. He assembled the best team in the league in 2021. He used the 13th and 27th picks to do it. He’s in our front office. There’s a model. It’s proven. We’re doing it.***

There’s a model. It’s proven. We are doing it… very poorly.

“We” gave him the 11th and the 19th pick, then “we” took them away from him.

I think the plan has nothing to do with Perrin. He’s like the gun that Gus McRae gives Newt in Lonesome Dove. It’s better to have Perrin and not need him than it is to need Perrin and not have him.

Leon still doesn’t seem to think he needs him.

Thanks Hubert. As to Isaac, it’s been a long time and it was a serious injury but he is only 24 and if fuly healed should pick up where he left off. They are saying he looks really good, but who knows?

***Thanks Hubert. ***

Oof.

Alan : Congrats and enjoy!!
Z-man: Truer words cannot be spoken re your daughter. Hoping all is okay
Quite a night for NY baseball. Looks like Mets and Braves will go down to the final 3 games in ATL near season’s end.

Alansays:
September 20, 2022 at 21:38
I just realized this is the first new car I’ve ever owned. Huh.

So how does it feel?

Z-man, I hope the MRI is good

Cyber, you’re reading way more into my comment than I actually said. I said if there was a league wide re-draft, the Knicks would probably be the 28th team to have a player picked. Before the Spurs and Jazz strategically traded their good players, we’d probably be dead last.

You’re right, yesterday was late here and i read your comment wrong. Actually on a league wide draft i agree with you, but it’s because we have a lot of players of about the same level. So to pick the first we could be dead last 3 months ago, but to pick 5th we’d be leaning towards average, imo. I disagree with your analysis of how bad being the last team to have a player picked, but hey we just have to agree to disagree. 😉
I guess during the season i get mad at optimists (hi Swift!) because if what’s really happening don’t allow for said optimism, it looks like out of touch to keep negating the reality in front of our eyes. And during the offseason i get mad at pessimists because we still don’t have proof that said pessimism is granted. Who would bet all his money that RJ won’t be much improved to start the season? Yeah, that’s it. It’s a good gamble but it’s not impossible. One month from now we’ll have 4 preseason and 2 regular season games, and we’ll probably know better if we’re doomed or not.

You are going to make those retirees feel so inferior when you arrive in Bologna with your construction efficiency spreadsheets.

Hahaha, Z-man the Umarell*!! 😀
* – Copyright to Jowles. And thanx for bringing up this word, i didn’t knew it at all and now i use it a lot. I even take time to explain it to people that don’t understand what i’m talking about. 😀

my D3 volleyball player might have a serious knee injury and needs to schedule an MRI. As they say, you are only as happy as your least happy kid.

Oh man, that’s tough. I hope the MRI comes clean and it’s just a scare. And a very wise thing you say, i wholeheartedly agree that our happiness is connected to our kids happiness from the moment they’re born into this (crazy?) world.

Congrats on your first brand new car, Alan! Enjoy that new car smell!

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