You Can Call Me “Mellow Yellow” About the Donovan Mitchell Trade

I don’t think enough is being made of the actual years of the picks. The Caves gave up unprotected first rounders in 2025, 2027, and 2029, and pick swaps in 2026 and 2028. They already have their 2023 pick traded out (top14 protected, which now seems like a lock to convey. To say that the Knicks unprotected firsts were “more valuable” is not necessarily true. I have been pretty firm on not trading any of our own firsts beyond 2026, and because we all know that the farther picks are out the more valuable they become, I doubt that making that trade, even if we kept our own 2023 and 2024 and all of the protected picks, would have left any of us feeling very happy. There is no guarantee that CLE won’t hit a major bump in the road in the next 7 years, so it’s quite the haul they gave up. Imagine not having our own pick outright until 2030, just to get Mitchell…that would literally be insanity.

I also think that criticizing Leon for what he initially is rumored to have offered is not fair. I always find reporting through “sources” a bit sketchy, especially early on in negotiations. The bottom line is, a deal wasn’t made and it is in the best interests of the team that it wasn’t made at anywhere close to the amount that CLE gave up. They had enough surplus assets and a rotation core to go all in all the way to 2030. That’s eight fucking years. There doesn’t seem to be much they can do to make another deal of consequence that doesn’t involve Spida, Mobley, Allen or Garland in that time frame. And who knows, maybe Mitchell hates CLE and opts out in year 3 of his current deal. Maybe tension develops between him and Garland, or one of the bigs.

And frankly, for me, this pushes the jury out on the Leon regime once again. I have consistently said that we can’t judge this group fully until opening day 2023-2024, barring a blockbuster trade. Had Ainge accepted an offer that Leon possibly knew that he wouldn’t, we’d be having a conversation about how Leon, like his predecessors, sold the farm for a flawed star that had no chance of making us a top 5-10 team. Now we continue to have a chance to talk about possibilities and potential, which is what nearly all of us wanted. It still sucks that he committed the original sins of hiring Thibs and foregoing a true rebuild, but damn, I’m really happy that we get to see the answers to the RJ, IQ, Grimes, and Obi questions right here. I’m really glad that we will likely have two picks (to punt on) in the upcoming draft.

Now if only we could find a way to get Julius, Fournier and Rose off the team….paging Rob Pelinka…I’d really be fired up!

I’m just not believing that the initial offer is as stated in any real sense, or that there was ever a chance that a deal could have gotten done at that price if Ainge had only said yes. It just makes zero sense that that was a legit firm offer and then shortly thereafter the Knicks wouldn’t offer anywhere near that amount. You are not going to convince me that the Knicks made a firm offer of Mitchell Robinson, Obi Toppin, RJ Barrett and 3 unprotected firsts, and then wouldn’t offer 3 unprotected picks ever again. My guess is that it was a “feeler” type of offer, being that Ainge was on record saying that he wanted 7 first rounders, and “offering” 3 under those circumstances isn’t really an offer, it’s a feeling out for a middle ground. Again, no “serious” offer came close to what was in that initial offer, so it makes no sense that the Knicks were negotiating to make the gap between the parties bigger than it originally was.

Also notice that there is no mention of the 4 protected picks in that initial offer, just 3 unprotected picks or pick swaps. Does that make any sense? Not to me.

I will say this, though. If you are keeping all of the unprotected picks and there are no pick swaps, meaning just a clean 3 unprotected picks in 2023, 2025, 2027 then you could make an argument that it was a much better deal for the Knicks than ones that could have gotten a deal done at the end. You would have avoided (over)paying Mitch and RJ a combined $44MAAV for the next 4 years, and would still have 6 #1 picks, including 3 of your own, in the next 6 years. But it still would have been a very bad move and I’m glad the offer was made at a time when there was zero chance that Ainge would even consider it.

I’m guessing that the daily update bot has not been engaged yet, so Brian or Mike K would have to do it manually. It’s offseason and not a massive thread yet (and no ugly exchanges between me and Hubert because I am choosing to ignore his trolling), so probably best to keep it on topic.

I think Leon and Thibs have to have a very frank (npi) talk with Julius. They have to tell him in no uncertain terms that he needs to fully embrace the “Chris Bosh” role with this team. Not just do it, but embrace it. They should tell him that if he is not enthusiastic about that, no hard feelings, they will work to move him as soon as they can and even be prepared to attach an asset to move him. They should tell him that he will increase his his chances of being moved by at least appearing to accept that diminished role with energy and positive vibes, even if he is faking it.

In either case, if the season starts and he regresses (both play-wise and emotionally) back to his 2021-22 shitty self, he should have his minutes diminished and even be removed from the starting lineup. If he balks at that, he should be benched entirely until he can be dealt at a minimal cost. If it gets really bad, just tell him he needs to stay away from the team. I don’t think it will get that bad, but that should be the mindset of management and the coaching staff.

If Thibs is not on board with this line of thinking, he needs go be fired. Management and coaching staff have to be on the same page. Most importantly, WWW and Thibs need to see eye-to-eye on this. If one of them has to go, it needs to be Thibs.

From Berman article:
“The Knicks reportedly moved to extend Barrett once they caught wind that the Cavs were favorites to trade for Donovan Mitchell.”

This suggests that the Knicks knew beforehand that the Cavs were serious suitors. It also suggests that on August 25 when Fred Jones put out there that the Jazz had several offers “worth pursuing” that the Cavs offer was on that list. When they pulled out on August 26, it was with the caveat that they declared Garland, Mobley and Allan untouchable. Makes it sound like there was something close to the Cav’s final offer on the table before RJ was signed and that Ainge was convinced he could use it to squeeze the Knicks for more assets. Once Ainge kept insisting that they could get more from the Cavs than Leon was offering, Leon set the RJ deadline and said take it or leave it. Ainge chose to leave it. Then Ainge probably just milked the two pick swaps out of the Cavs or something like that to finalize the Cavs deal, and had no interest in going back to the Knicks because RJ was not an asset anymore.

“The current trajectory of this particular team kind of proves that “rebuilding takes too long” is not a great argument. This is an extremely incremental kind of build we have going here. I do appreciate that we haven’t made Eddy Curry/Joakim Noah/Andrea Bargnani level mistakes, but it’s hard to get excited about a team with the floor/ceiling combination of this particular Knicks team.”

This regime inherited arguably the worst roster in the NBA (projected to win 23 games) has had two seasons and coming up on three offseasons on the job. In that time they have pretty much transformed the roster. We have 3 vets…one on the last guaranteed year, one with two years left at market value, and one overpaid disgruntled player locked into an ill-advised extension that can be moved with sweetener. They re-signed Mitch to a reasonable extension, same with RJ, drafted solid rotation players at 8, 25, 25 and possibly 34, 36 and 57. They still have all of their own picks and 4 surplus protected picks that are likely to convey in the next 2-3 years. They just signed the single most coveted FA on this market to a reasonable deal despite his current teams willingness to match or exceed the Knicks’ offer. They (I’ll concede against their wishes but whatever) making a foolish deal for a flawed star.

They have a very interesting young team with five kids in the rotation (six if you include Brunson and Hartenstein) and as Ainge made clear, most of these players could intrigue a team looking to part with a star. Even Cam Reddish has a team interested in him.

So in two year’s time, the Knicks have assembled a team that a star of Donovan Mitchell’s stature would be excited to play for. He will not be the last star of at least that stature that will be seeking a trade in the next few years. Now that Chet is a big question mark, keep your eye on SGA. Also, keep your eye on teams in the West that have made big moves but still languish in the play-in realm.

In summary, I don’t see how this can be even remotely compared to the transitions that FOs have made in the past, or to regimes that have failed to improve their teams dramatically over a 5 year span. We are technically not even in year 3 of this process, and a consolidation trade is almost certainly going to happen in the next month or two. Other teams need to consolidate too, and some additional second-level deals are possible. We can also facilitate deals as a third team.

I’m really looking forward to October 4.

Thanks guys! CDiggy, glad you are into your gig’s vball so that at least someone isn’t bored by my daddy-gloating!

As to Julius, Most of us felt that locking up Julius at what is less than half of the current max was a sound move at the time. I guess that those who felt otherwise can gloat, but any fair-minded analyst would not crucify management for it…maybe mildly criticize it but it was a signing that a guy like Pat Riley or even Ujiri would probably have made. Fournier was not a great signing, but it was really re-signing Noel, Rose, Burks, and Taj that kinda stunk.

But in the position we are in, so much depends on finding out what we actually have. Barring injury, the only players you can count on for playing within a relatively narrow range are Mitch, Fournier, and Rose. Everyone else has both significant upside and downside. I think this is the year we learn who Randle, Brunson, RJ, Grimes, IQ, Obi and Hart really are. I guess you can throw Cam in there but he probably won’t be on the opening day roster, and Deuce, Sims and Keels almost certainly won’t be in the rotation and Rokas will be kept overseas.

https://knickerblogger.net/2021/08/05/espn-com-julius-randle-agrees-to-4-year-117-million-extension-with-new-york-knicks/#comments

Here is the link to the comments thread from the day Randle was extended. The only poster vehemently against the signing was E, and while he was correct, he made some statements that at the time were simply not true (read TNFH’s rebuttal.) Hubert was a bit concerned but not against the signing…he only accurately predicted that Randle would jump at the extension rather than play it out in hopes of a max, and suggested that his poor playoff performance was a factor in that, although he attributed his performance more to issues with spacing and coaching.

The one point made in favor of the deal then that still stands today is that Julius was paid like a 2nd or 3rd option, which is the role he was ultimately destined for. Isn’t that the question that is on the table this year, i.e. can Randle accept being a third option to Brunson and RJ, who are now getting paid as much as (technically more than) him?

I think it would be prudent management to demand that from Julius before selling at rock bottom. Even look at establishing a 1A-B-C framework where the lead guys share the rock equally and all have responsibility as distributors.

Ziggy Stardust is a masterpiece. Over the years my feelings about best song on that album evolved, from Suffragette City as a kid to Lady Stardust in my old age.

“Space Invadersays:
September 4, 2022 at 20:25
We are definitely lay people here.”

Speak for yourself.