2020-21 Game Thread: Knicks @ Nets

The Knicks head to Brooklyn to take on their borough rivals, the Brooklyn Nets, with the Nets having already lost to the Chicago Bulls last night and playing without Blake Griffin (who sits the second night of back-to-backs), so this could be quite the opportunity for the Knicks to have a statement game, with their “Big 15” taking on the Nets’ “Big…2, I guess?” with Keven Durant missing another game but James Harden likely rejoining Kyrie Irving tonight.

If Harden is out, then this very much becomes a very winnable game.

Let’s go, get over .500, Knicks!

173 replies on “2020-21 Game Thread: Knicks @ Nets”

From the last thread in case HCJ misses it,.

The Honorable Cock Jowles:
It feels like it’s been a few months

but strat has indeed returned to comedy

Think whatever you wish, but this is the truth.

I was using the exact same model that is used to calculate SRS for Basketball Reference as the base for my model. I had conversations with a person at Basketball Reference and he explained it and provided some help at the start. I think he even gave me a sample spreadsheet to start. I ran that model every day on my own to make sure it matched exactly what Basketball reference was publishing. It always did.

Then I had a separate spreadsheet where I added in my adjustments to the scores to reflect injuries, home/away for each team, and some extreme scheduling issues. I ran that daily. That produced a different set of SRS numbers that more accurately reflected things not included in Basketball Reference SRS.

The Home/Away adjustments were provided by someone associated with Wins Produced at the time. I think it was Arturo.

The injury values were based on on/off data I tracked when players were out injured and bookie odds lines changes for injuries I was tracking on my own.

There is NO QUESTION AT ALL that what I had was superior to what is published now. Of course, there may be other private people (including bookies) that had way better models, but what I had was without doubt better than just SRS.

I was using that model as a core for line making along with other insights from gambling research I was doing on my own to bet basketball from 2011-2012 through 2015-2016. I was already tapering off the last couple of years. I netted profits in every year. By 2015-2016 I was convinced if I had any edge left it wasn’t worth the trouble. So I stopped and put that extra energy into horse racing (which I have been playing for decades) and built the horse racing database I use now.

I have to say, as much as I appreciate advanced stats I don’t get the value of SRS at all. It’s virtually indistinguishable from MOV.

There is NO QUESTION AT ALL that what I had was superior to what is published now.

i swear, i’ll tell people this exact thing all the time, and yet still they question me…it’s soooooo…something…

edit: oh, i see now you were referencing gambling…

thought of you the other day strat, was flipping channels and came across BattleBots, i’ve seen it before, but it’s been a while…pretty entertaining stuff actually, love seeing so many super geeks gathered together…

it did sort of act though as a gateway drug to Ancient Aliens though, it was either on the same channel or station or so close by…i’ve been pretty good for a few years of avoiding that kind of stuff (once it’s in your head, it becomes pervasive)…i wanna believe…

Go Kinks

Yankees are looking so lifeless at the plate to start the season I think I’m going to pay all my attention to the Knicks game tonight. Last time a Yankees and Knicks game was on at the same time and I paid more attention to the Knicks game was probably 2013.

Strat, it sounds like good work.

Thanks, but I never could have pulled it off without the help I had.

The one thing I tried but failed at was trying to weigh more recent games more than old ones. I wasn’t sure what weights to use or how to test it. I didn’t have a lot of back data.

So what I did was create another spreadsheet that just looked at last 10 game and last 20 games. Then I could compare those numbers to the full season numbers and subjectively decide what to do.

When I had a play what I usually did was if the 10 and 20 game numbers made it seem the same or even better, I would make the play. If the 10 and 20 game numbers made it seem bad, I held back the bet. So that way I felt like I was incorporating recent game analysis without it dictating a bet.

geo

I watch both shows.

Battle Bots I legitimately love. Ancient Aliens is half comedy and half hmmmn, this may explain a lot of things. lol

Trying to watch the Knicks, Yankees and a live YouTube breakdown of the Jets trade at the same time is gonna be a challenge.

The Nets have 3 guys who can win games by themselves.

It’s kind of absurd.

Thibs gonna have a heart attack with how bad the Knicks are playing defense this quarter.

Ok, the answer to the trivia is probably not Jasón Kidd, but he’s the only guy I can think of.

Knick fan not in NJ: Ok, the answer to the trivia is probably not Jasón Kidd, but he’s the only guy I can think of.

What is the question? I have the YES feed… ugh!

All you betting folks: why did they hire “Jesse Pinkman” to hawk that sports book on League Pass? I mean I love BREAKING BAD, but is he making betting seem cool, tough, simple, what?

I’m at the point where I don’t think any of IQs 2 point shots are going in when he takes them… or maybe like 10%…

Randle blatantly doesn’t get back on defense… instead chooses to argue the non-call… just not feeling that…

The question is which player who played for both the Knicks and Nets scored the most combined points for both teams.

Knick fan not in NJ: The question is which player who played for both the Knicks and Nets scored the most combined points for both teams.

Yeah, i would say Kidd too. Because he’s the only one i can remember, but he played great years for them (back to back NBA Finals, if i remember correctly) so he might be the right answer.

Kyrie Irving is a videogame.

Bullock’s in his best stretch as a Knick, I’d love Obi to learn everything from Taj,
IQ’s shooting slump continues, D-Rose with a nice first half…

I don’t care how many players the Nets are missing, I want this game…

cybersoze: Knick fan not in NJ: The question is which player who played for both the Knicks and Nets scored the most combined points for both teams.

Gotta be Bernard, right?

Maybe not. The longevity thing.

Yankees offense is no longer asleep.

That was picturesque.

This is obviously distinct from being the best player, but Kyrie is definitely the player about whom I’ve most often said “he’s just ridiculous.”

Knew Your Nicks: Are the Raptors tanking or what?

If i was their GM, i’d tank the season. There’s minimal chances to be better than 10th (the last for the play-in), but in the reverse standings they have only 2 wins more than the 4th place, so they could easily get a great draft position.

The Stanton grand slam went 471. It would not have gone out in the original (1923-37) stadium (490).

Nothing like building a 13 pt lead then immediately allowing 3 fast break baskets in a row.

The trivia question was answered, Buck Williams followed by Bernard King

we make so many bonehead plays… like teams do bad things… we do bonehead things…

Randle needs to do a better job of getting back… he’s the biggest culprit in that dept

all because of their boneheadedness / laziness on the def glass… and now one on one D Rose … I could not be more unimpressed by these guys sometimes…before i could submit this comment… julius… no pass… just shoot it… oh… and now a steal… 7 knick turnovers… thats how bad we are currently playing…i cant finish a comment before we make 3-4 awful awful awful plays

So many dumb turnovers from Randle and RJ, it’s disgusting…

And I hate bad shooting triple doubles…

Yes, RJ with 5 turnovers already. It’s a regular thing; he’ll have to clean that up to take a next step.

How could Gibson and Burks lose that ball?
IQ is targeted regularly on defense…

Thibs did it again… Toppin needs to have better nose for the ball absolutely, but he 100% boxed out his man… HArris just outmuscled Quickley for that rebound…

OBi and Quickly to the bench…

defensive rebounds would be great right about now… WE ARE AN AWFUL OFFENSIVE TEAM

I hope they feel the shame of being dominated by Alize Johnson..,

Rose disappeared in the second half,
Randle and RJ became turnovers machine and nobody could buy a basket,
it’s pathetic…

this thread reads like it’s about to be the most painful loss of the season…

RJ’s been bad with turnovers this game, but he’s only averaging 2.0 a game in 34 minutes, which doesn’t seem especially bad and is improved from last year. Having occasional games with several turnovers is going to happen with any player that touches the ball frequently.

Interesting point Mike, thanks.

After I insulted RJ I was going to write that it was time for him to put the team on his back but then I thought nah, that’ll just look silly. But he’s trying…

geo:
this thread reads like it’s about to be the most painful loss of the season…

We’re just not used to being in so many winnable games… its ALWAYS devastating

Raven:
Interesting point Mike, thanks.

After I insulted RJ I was going to write that it was time for him to put the team on his back but then I thought nah, that’ll just look silly. But he’s trying…

The weird thing is I mentally agreed with you before looking it up haha. Kind of seems like RJ goes through a lot of games with minimal turnovers but has enough obviously dumb ones that they stick out.

I was sure that winning the challenge would lose us three points one way or the other…

i dont understand how ineffective Julius is with Kyrie guarding him 1 on 1…

If we’re going to lose to Brooklyn I’d prefer it be because their big three dropped 90 on us rather than allowing Jeff Green to pretend it’s 2009 and drop 20 on us

If Jeff Green only played the Knicks he’d be a first ballot Hall of Famer.

Noel is a very good backup but he is not a quality starter. Just Horrible on offense.

I wonder what our record is if we have Mitch in and get another 3-5 points a game out of the center position

RAndle cant even jump anymore… what the hell is that shot julius… im riding him tonight yep

Bad decision by Payton there. Had RJ wide open for 3 in the corner instead of Noel

Most of us had written this one off as a loss, so even though it’s disappointing we couldn’t capitalize on our good luck it wouldn’t be the worst loss of the season.

Enjoying RJ’s game but thought I’d point out all of those assists… currently at zero

sorry… thats not the play… thats NOT the play… we dig our own graves …

They had four guys who were 11-18 from three out there, and the guy who was 0-4 took it.

Well, exciting game anyway…

If you’re shooting a 2 to tie you have to have a plan to get to the rim. I’d much rather see a contested 3 for the win than a contested long 2 for the tie. Ugly.

How often have the Knicks actually hit a game winning or tying shot in the last 10 years or so? Seems like never

Oh wait Ndour …

We deserve to lose again, we were killed by Green and Alize Johnson and again we can’t get a defensive rebound when it counts, just as against the Heat and Mavs, shame on our players…

Randle is 0-1500 on game ending shot,
going back to last year missed FT that cost us a game…

Noel’s missed FT’s were a killer…
Rose went 0-6 in the second half,
his last shots were short, he still doesn’t have the legs after covid…

We can’t win a game with a decent team (the Bucks G- Leaguers don’t count),
we’re maybe the best of the worst…

This game shows why triple doubles are stupid, they must be recorded only if the team win…

Again same decent things from Toppin, but he still gets the Thibs’ clockwork treatment…

I’d love to grab that kid Mitchell from Baylor with the Mavs pick. Reminds me of Marcus Smart.

BigBlueAL:
Melo actually hit a bunch believe it or not.

I’m not a big Melo fan but I was at MSG for the 2012 Easter Sunday game against the Bulls when he hit a 3 to send it into overtime and then another 3 to win the game and it’s one of my favorite Knicks memories.

Yup, the Mets blow another wonderful Jacob DeGrom start. The same old villains: bullpen and crunch-time defense.

And maybe the manager could’ve gone one more inning with DeGrom, who cruised through 6 innings. 77 pitches, IIRC.

As a fan of the Knicks, Mets and Gonzaga, tonight would have been a good night for my TV to go on the fritz…

The physical disparity between Baylor and Gonzaga is ridiculous. Every guy on Baylor is jacked.

gonzaga wasn’t really challenged by a high quality team all tourney until ucla… and ucla wasn’t a great team either… nobody quite gets into your grill like baylor does and that visibily shook the whole zags team.. especially when they had a nasty habit of picking up their dribble which is like the worst thing you can do against those kinds of teams.. west virginia is somewhat simlar defensive style and they gave gonzaga their most competitive game of the year before the final four so what baylor did in hindsight shouldn’t be too surprising.. they were also an upper echelon team….

Are we talking about the same Baylor where all those women got raped and the AD Ian McCaw and President Ken Starr got fired for helping cover it up to save their athletic program from NCAA sanctions? Like sixty women, right? Just making sure we’re talking about the same Baylor.

Yup, the Mets blow another wonderful Jacob DeGrom start. The same old villains: bullpen and crunch-time defense.

And maybe the manager could’ve gone one more inning with DeGrom, who cruised through 6 innings. 77 pitches, IIRC.

Well, they got a clean 7th our of Castro, who actually looked pretty nasty. If deGrom had pitched 7, they would have just brought in May anyway, and May was terrible.

Also in Metsian fashion it was the defensive replacement who made the terrible throwing error that blew the game open.

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