Knicks Morning News (2019.05.14)

I can’t believe that after months of waiting for this day it managed to sneak up on me.

Sunday, May 12, 1985. I went with my dad to Marshalls in Nanuet, NY. Neither of us had any concept of the draft lottery as appointment television. It was Sunday afternoon, clothes shopping time – maybe an OP T-shirt for me and a button down striped shirt for my dad. The electronics store near Marshalls had TV’s facing the sidewalk of the shopping center. That’s where we found out the lottery results walking back to the car.

” If the Knicks are serious about a potential trade for Davis, some reports suggest it may take Williamson (making Tuesday’s lottery all the more important), Kevin Knox, and Mitchell Robinson to get a deal done.” Oh sure, definitely, league sources. They’ll get right on that.

If the Knicks are slotted 4th or 5th then Hachimura becomes an intriguing possibility. He has touch around the basket, can shoot and has an ability to intercept passes defensively. Rebounding is coming along, but he’s still only 20 years old. The Suns may scoop him up if they are 3rd or 4th and we end up in 5th. We would be able to pair him with Mitch, keep Trier and Dotson, and sign 2 max free agents. Knox’s development would not be under the same scrutiny in year 2.

Besides the Cavs, obviously, who do you NOT want to get Zion?

Philadelphia (they have the slimmest of chances).

I’ve been invited to the MSG season ticket holder lottery event. Maybe I should just stay home, squeeze one of my nuts in a vise and then hit the other one with a ball-peen hammer.

I have been, as well. I think. I’ve been invited to something at MSG that’s supposed to have Scott Perry present, so I assume that’s the same thing.

I kinda want to go, but I don’t trust myself not to corner him and make him listen to all the plans for talent acquisition I’ve put together on my spreadsheets. “Scott, listen, did you know there’s a way to get KD, AD, and Kyrie without giving up Mitch or Knox? What’s your email? I’ll send it to you.”

I’ve decided to watch the season finale of Flash with my son. Can’t handle the anxiety of waiting for the ping pong balls to tell me what we’ll be arguing about in the years to come.

What a maroon. Can you imagine how much better the Rockets would have been defensively against Golden State had they been allowed to go over the luxury cap to bring back Ariza? But nooooo, now that it’s too late, now he’ll go over the cap. What a dick.

But I was told definitively on this website that a contending team would never make a bad roster decision based on money.

As long as Dallas stays out of the top 5, I’m not going to get upset. You can kind of see where they are going with the Cam interest. Imagine Cam, Knox, Durant and Mitch switching everything with a ton of length and athleticism on defense. It would help if Knox could play defense and either Knox or Cam could score, but hey, I didn’t say it was a good vision, but does have some logical consistency with what they have said.

But I was told definitively on this website that a contending team would never make a bad roster decision based on money

We really don’t have to keep doing this! We’ll see if Paul Millsap is made available at a decent price this offseason. It’ll get resolved one way or another. My position continues to be that he will not be available at a price that would allow for picking up him AND another piece that, together, would outweigh Kyrie’s production. Yours is that him, and another such player, will be available at such a price. We shall see!

I’m not that excited about the lottery tonight. My opinion on these college players can’t possibly be as good as my opinion on pros that I have seen play dozens of times against a variety of matchups and styles. Some of these kids are still growing. Some are more filled out physically and will be ready sooner, but that says nothing about 5 years from now. It’s a crap shoot.

If we pick in the top 3, I feel good about all 3 players having a chance to become a very good player.

If we drop to 4th, I feel good about D’Andre Hunter becoming a very very good two-way role player.

After that it gets sketchier for me. I lost some of my enthusiasm (or more accurately hope for Culver) after others spoke so highly of him, but there are still some intriguing players. Most of it may not matter though. It’s all about the 3 on 3.

We really don’t have to keep doing this!

You’re right. Especially today. Couldn’t help myself. My bad.

I would definitely trade either Zion or Mitchell for Davis, but not both. When you have a player like Zion or Mitchell, you are hoping and praying that one of them someday turns into what Anthony Davis already is, but you shouldn’t actually expect it to happen. More likely is that they turn out to be very very good, not all around “great” like Davis.

To seal that deal, I would gladly throw in some limited combination of Dallas’s 2 first rounders, one of our other young players or picks if that’s what it took to get it done.

You don’t get many chances to sign a young elite two-way superstar.

Classic Strat.

I’m more excited that I have the Raptors and Bucks in the conference finals. That means I’m getting to the finals against the Warriors in a position to let it ride or hedge to a profit. The only way it could be better is if the Warriors got upset.

Anybody based in the DC area that wants to watch the lottery tonight? I don’t know any Knick fans down here.

So the Knicks are gonna “play the hand we’re dealt” in free agency. Um, have they ever heard about folding? You can do that if KD is not coming. You can fold/punt and rent the cap space.

NBC Sports (fwiw) has the Knicks “keeping an eye on” Rozier and Morris from the Celtics in free agency. Uh oh.

Crossing fingers tonight.

is it even possible?

It is not. The Kings’ pick goes to the Celtics if it is anything but #1 overall and it goes to Philly if it is #1.

So let us hope that the Kings don’t land in the top five!

This seems really inconsistent with your position on value signings. Three years of Mitch giving 80% of AD’s production at 5% of the cost seems like value, no? Isn’t it easier to build a team around that contract than AD’s?

I agree with your point 100%. There are scenarios where we could get two other stars and keep Mitchell that would be better than making a trade, but in isolation Davis is a prize that’s hard to pass up on.

I’m value oriented, but to win a championship, you need 2-3 offensive stars depending on each’s quality. Right now we have exactly zero. I love Mitchell Robinson and can’t believe we were either lucky or smart enough to get him where we did, but all he can do on offense is dunk on lobs and put back OREBs. That makes him more of a 3rd option or extremely valuable role player. He might eventually expand his game, but I’ll take a bird in the hand over one in the bush.

This is the same thing that Bennett did with the Thunder. He refused to pay to keep Durant, Harden, Westbrook, and Ibaka together,

It’s a little different. Those guys were all young and had a very long widow. Ariza was on the wrong side of 30 and went “oh for 9” from 3 and “oh for 12 overall” in a game 7 after having a bad game 6.

Of course, given Dolan’s Razor, we’ll probably end up with:

Kemba – Cam Reddish – KD – Knox – Mitch Rob

KD is so good that even the worst case scenario is a respectable enough team.

Yeah I keep Mitch if we get Kyrie and KD. Of course AD would be awesome but it makes the team top heavy for sure. All 3 have injury concerns, so if one goes down, the team is really hurting and if 2 go down, you’re screwed. I think the “Big Three” thing is way overrated. Two superstars and an amazing supporting cast that makes for a balanced team is the way to go in my opinion.

It seems they’re again doing the weird format where they announce the #1 pick first by reading out the ping pong ball number combinations, then the #2 pick, etc. It’s weird because as a fan you don’t know what any of the ball numbers represent, so there’s nothing to take away from any of the readouts. I liked it better when they went in reverse order, announcing the #14 pick first and then counting down.

It seems like there’s an opportunity to make the event more exciting by explaining the ping pong ball numbering better and having some sort of live updating of odds based on the balls drawn so far. Someone on P&T was actually saying you can reverse engineer it, and worked out that the Knicks have like a 50% chance at drafting #1 overall if a 1 ball is drawn first.

If anyone is interested in seeing how it’s going to work, here is last year’s drawing. Go to 6:40 in the video and try to make heads or tails of what all the number combinations mean:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wFlQRdOo9U

It seems they’re again doing the weird format where they announce the #1 pick first by reading out the ping pong ball number combinations, then the #2 pick, etc. It’s weird because as a fan you don’t know what any of the ball numbers represent, so there’s nothing to take away from any of the readouts. I liked it better when they went in reverse order, announcing the #14 pick first and then counting down.

It seems like there’s an opportunity to make the event more exciting by explaining the ping pong ball numbering better and having some sort of live updating of odds based on the balls drawn so far. Someone on P&T was actually saying you can reverse engineer it, and worked out that the Knicks have like a 50% chance at drafting #1 overall if a 1 ball is drawn first.

If anyone is interested in seeing how it’s going to work, here is last year’s drawing. Go to 6:40 in the video and try to make heads or tails of what all the number combinations mean:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wFlQRdOo9U

That’s the literal lottery itself. That’s not what is aired on TV. That’s done so that there is proof that Team X got Pick #3. Each team sends a representative down there, as well, but they can’t communicate with anyone. So that’s why the order was done differently, because it was not televised. I didn’t know it was recorded, but it makes sense (for conspiracy theorists).

The televised lottery still does the countdown from #14 down.

I would not entertain the idea of trading Mitch for AD.

I would build a package around Morant or Barrett, possibly even Zion, for the opportunity to build a KD-AD-Mitch frontline. But no Mitch.

That’s the literal lottery itself. That’s not what is aired on TV. That’s done so that there is proof that Team X got Pick #3. Each team sends a representative down there, as well, but they can’t communicate with anyone. So that’s why the order was done differently, because it was not televised. I didn’t know it was recorded, but it makes sense (for conspiracy theorists).

The televised lottery still does the countdown from #14 down.

Ah ok. Well good! Was wondering why they’d have such a non-viewer friendly format. So then, the order we want to hear I believe is:

#14: SAC / BOS
#13: Miami
#12: Charlotte
#11: Lakers
#10: Minn
#9: Dallas
#8: Memphis
#7: New Orleans
#6: Washington
#5: Atlanta
#4: Chicago
#3: Phoenix
#2: Cleveland

Any deviation from that means a precipitous fall in the chance we are drafting #1 or #1-4.

I would build a package around Morant or Barrett, possibly even Zion, for the opportunity to build a KD-AD-Mitch frontline. But no Mitch.

I’m probably crazy, but I think I’d rather have Mitch than Zion also (yeah, I’m definitely crazy).

Zion is close to 100% to be far the best rookie next year because he’s physically ready to play at the NBA level and his skills translate easier. But his greatness at the college level is partly the result of his athletic advantage and physical dominance over other college players. He’s not a supremely skilled ball handler, play maker, shot maker etc.. piling up stats.

When he comes to the NBA, he’ll be more than strong and athletic enough to hold his own on both ends, but the gap will narrow. There are going to be nights where he’s undersized playing against a taller, longer, athletic big that’s also very strong. He’ll be productive, but he’s got a long way to go to be assured of becoming a superstar.

There could easily be a couple of players in this draft that will start out way behind him that will eventually pass him if he doesn’t expand his game. Expanding his game is no more a lock for him than Mitchell even though he’s ahead of Mitchell in some in some skills while Mitchell has the size and length.

Can a Ja/Kyrie backcourt work out? I dunno but I’d love to see it happen.

Also, can we please stop Cronin-cursing the KD-to-Knicks stuff?

Seriously. I’m the guy touting The Secret here, but when Brian said this it made me cringe:

Honestly, the fact that KD is almost certainly coming here takes a lot of the pressure out of the lottery, in my view.

I’m probably crazy, but I think I’d rather have Mitch than Zion also

You take Zion over Mitch in a vaccuum. But you can make a salary-based case for wanting to trade Zion more than Mitch.

You can’t get AD, Kyrie, and KD with Zion. It’s a mathematical impossibility. You can get Kyrie-KD-AD-Mitch.

A main reason not to trade Zion is that you’d have to trade almost all the other young pieces just to make the salaries work. I certainly would not include draft picks in a trade for AD if Zion is involved — Zion is/will be the most valuable trade asset in the entire league because of his potential and also how many years he’ll be under team control under a (presumably) below-market contract.

Essentially, if I were trading Zion (+Frank+Knox+DSJ+Trier), I could argue that the Knicks are the ones who should be getting draft picks back.

Remember Andrew Wiggins (who was highly touted as a #1 pick) was traded straight up for Kevin Love, who was very highly thought of at the time — not AD-level but still an upper echelon player. Trading Zion +the kids literally is sending the that same #1 pick plus 4 additional first round picks.

So the Knicks are gonna “play the hand we’re dealt” in free agency. Um, have they ever heard about folding? You can do that if KD is not coming. You can fold/punt and rent the cap space.

this is pretty much my expectation for the off-season and tonight (pick 4 or 5)…who knows, maybe things will work out more favorably, but, at the moment – i’m thinking of a 25 win 2019-2020 season…probably get the 8th pick next year…

at least we have one another 🙂

If we pick #4 or #5 I guess my partner will ask for pre-emptive divorce, given that she’ll be certainly sleeping before going to work at 4:30 AM and I will wake up even the devils in the deepest areas of hell.

that’s so funny…

seriously though – how in the heck can something so smooth sounding cause so much devastation:
the curse of cronin…that sounds straight out of hyboria…

You take Zion over Mitch in a vaccuum. But you can make a salary-based case for wanting to trade Zion more than Mitch.

I wasn’t even thinking that far ahead. I don’t know who else is coming and I’m not going to try spin my wheels too much. Mills and Perry won’t listen to me anyway. 🙂

All I know is that out of all the free agents and players available, imo, Anthony Davis is far and away the greatest prize. He’s an all time great player that imo hasn’t even reached his peak yet and he’s young enough to be here for 2 contracts. As great as Durant is, this is the tail end of his peak. He’s likely to start declining while on his next contract.

i think the fact that AD was only able to lead his team to better than a .500 record two out of his 7 seasons is a huge red flag…

he can’t drag a less than optimum team along with him, same as kyrie…KD and kawhi probably can, i think there’s a good chance zion will be able to…

I’m really not sure that the Morris and Rozier rumors are anything but noise. But, in a different article, Perry is quoted as saying

Perry added that he’s looking for veteran players who can add to their young roster and be part of the Knicks’ championship core.

“We’re looking to add some talented players that fit into our culture, guys who are committed to building a championship contender in New York. Competitive guys who understand what it takes to win at this level. We have a good young core of players but we feel that we’re going to need to add some veteran players who have been through the wars if you will, who understand the winning, like we talked about.”

It sounds like he is switching to win now mode. If we don’t get Durant, I don’t think that is a good idea; and if we do get him, why is he interested other veterans who are not stars?

@ 67 who other Mitch Rob would be considered part of a “good young core”? maybe Trier? Knox b/c unlike Frank he has not been around enough to move on from yet? Are these vets who have been through the wars guys like Lance? I just hope it is patter to fill up some questioners page as a professional courtesy. Assuming the deus ex machina of Durant fails to materialize, we better get the 1 or 2 pick and keep moving forward.

I just hope it is patter to fill up some questioners page as a professional courtesy. Assuming the deus ex machina of Durant fails to materialize, we better get the 1 or 2 pick and keep moving forward.

I’ve no idea what they’ll do but I think maybe that’s kind of the idea? Earlier this year they essentially said they wouldn’t use space on mediocrity. I’m hoping they are just keeping options open and keeping other FOs guessing. I mean, technically talented/committed/veteran players would include folks like Durant, you know?

“I sacrificed obviously my talent the most,” he said. “I think me being out there and giving my full style of play, how Terry Rozier play. I feel like I couldn’t be that person this year.”

First there was TDDWTDD

Next there must be TRPHTRP

Beam him up, Scottie!

You guys do realize that there’s a 6 in 7 chance that Zion is not coming here

@75

Yes, but until that 15% chance is eliminated tonight at around 845, I’m with Hubert on practicing the Law of Attraction. After 8:45 I’m going back to griping about Dolan’s Razor and our future draft pick Cam Reddish.

Really hope if we do luck out we don’t trade Zion (or Mitch). I don’t think I’d be able to take him dominating the league for 15 years even if we do win a championship off the back of an AD trade.

“I’m told if the Knicks do get that #1 overall pick that they will shift their focus toward a potential deal for Anthony Davis”

I’m not saying Lenny Bruce is fearless but..

Next there must be TRPHTRP

geo would just like to co-sign that TRPHTRP is not a bad player for a team to have…geo is just not sure what kind of deal TRPHTRP will be getting this off-season, at 8 to 10 million a year, maybe not so bad, above that, geo doesn’t really think TRPHTRP is that great…

I have no idea why you wouldn’t want KD is you managed to draft Zion.

I feel like Dolan’s Razor doesn’t apply to tonight. It should be reserved for when unlikely things happen to screw the Knicks. Tonight, we are more likely to get the 5th pick than any other, so when it happens, it’s just what it is. Now, if Dallas gets a top 5 (~26% chance), pushing back our 1st round compensation, and maybe screwing us out of the back end 1st rounder of the KP trade, then that would definitely be Dolan’s Razor.

I cannot watch tonight. Decided I am going to watch another show at halftime for an hour, turn off my phone and then gently log into Knickerblogger later after it’s all over. Good luck, compadres.

I feel like Dolan’s Razor doesn’t apply to tonight. It should be reserved for when unlikely things happen to screw the Knicks.

No, that is not correct. Many of the unkind cuts of Dolan’s Razor are due to incompetence, not mere bad fortune. I invented Dolan’s Razor so I shall be the arbiter of when it applies.

Dolan’s Razor: the most irritating possible outcome will be the actual outcome

@89 I see where you’re coming from, I just think it’s silly to get uspset tonight when we get the 5th pick, since it is by far the most likely pick we get.

Dolan’s Razor: the most irritating possible outcome will be the actual outcome

Ergo, Dallas gets #1, Knicks get #5

Kevin, it’s more likely that we get 1-4 than 5, right? Instead of thinking of individual outcomes, think of the 1-4 as a single outcome. It’s getting me through today.

@95

Only barely. It’s near 50-50 that we draft #5 or we get one of the #1-4 picks.

Based on the evaluations I don’t think there’s really a ton of value to be lost moving between #3 to #5. Seems like Morant is the clear consensus at #2, and maybe you give some bump to Barrett, but there’s a cluster of potentially valuable guys. The main value I can see of picking #3 is there are probably a couple organizations that overvalue Barrett, so you can get a lot in a trade down. I don’t expect our FO to extract that trade down value though, but I’m open to being surprised…

A moment of silence for the great Tim Conway.

“deserve ain’t got nothin’ to do with it.”

I believe that Will Munny in Unforgiven…

You guys do realize that there’s a 6 in 7 chance that Zion is not coming here

There’s really almost a zero chance when you think about it, because we’re almost definitely going to trade the pick if Durant wants to come here.

But I’m still going to be excited when we win.

“Deserve’s got nothing to do with it,” was Munny’s.

A couple of years ago I had a dream that Charles Oakley represented the Knicks at the draft lottery, and the Knicks landed the #2 pick.

I’m convinced that the Knicks cannot “win” a draft lottery unless Dolan at least makes up with Oak, which, of course, will not happen. So, I figure the pick will be 3 or later. That’s somewhere between Zion/Ja and Dolan’s Razor.

the key is to avoid watching the first 9 picks. any team that jumps into the top 4 will feel like a dagger, and there’s only an ~8.8% chance no team has jumped before the 5th pick is revealed. And even that miracle wouldn’t be much of a boost when it comes to Zion, only raising our odds to 21.5%.

If you get Zion just keep Zion and build around him and his many controllable years for the love of fucks sake

Conflicting timelines can compromise the short term and the long term

I can understand that, but you have to give up stuff for Davis, and probably give up quite a lot, and you have to pay him too. With KD, you only have to pay him.

We can debate the best way to proceed with the #1 pick tomorrow.

I ended up passing on the MSG event. I’ve decided that watching the endless bullshit of tonight’s production will just agitate me. I went with an 7:30pm dinner reservation instead. Hopefully I get caught up in the company until my phone starts blowing up after we win.

Knicks fans, take your seats!

The more I think about it, the #2 or #3 pick is actually be the best possible outcome if Perry is hell bent on trading the pick to win now with Durant.

Morant or Barrett can still headline the best trade for AD, and we wouldn’t live with a decade of regret for trading Zion.

getting drinks and dinner ready

fine strategy indeed, hmmmm, this coupled with z-man’s vise device should complete the evening…

Well, at the very least I just had a great pizza. I didn’t waste this night.

Lauryn and Bob told me Zion Is coming….no way we don’t get him.This time, math,reason , razors got nothing on us.
We get to Zion and he stays.

I’m going to skip being on here once the lottery starts. I’ve already alerted my fiancee and coworkers to NOT spoil the results to me. I’m also avoiding all social media until I’m emotionally ready to find out the results.

All the Laker fans (i.e. my fiancee and supervisor) are all like “GO LAKERS! #LOLKNICKS” while I’m like, “FUCK OFF YOU SPOILED BRATS! YOU WERE ALL ALIVE WHEN YOUR SQUAD LAST WON THE TITLE. YOU DON’T NEED ZION! LET (aging) LEBRON LEAD YOU BACK TO PROMINENCE!!!”

EDIT: I did not actually tell my future wife nor my supervisor to actually “Fuck off”. I’m a Knicks’ fan, I’m not stupid. lol

Those Laker fans have all their suffering ahead of them.

This whole thing is simple if we win the lottery and get Zion….Sign Durant and Kawhi and go to the ECF.

This is just sports and some dumb team I root for.

So why does it feel like I’m about to find out if I’m going to Vietnam?

I don’t know why you’re all so down on Cam Reddish. He was coached by David Cutliffe dont ya know.

The media is already putting out stories about the Knicks trading Zion for AD but man if you read Knick fans comments on those tweets and especially on the IG post the Knicks put up today with Ewing and Allan Houston at the Lottery the Knicks will get killed by their fans if they trade Zion even for AD.

I’ll be honest if they win the lottery and trade Zion I’ll be beyond pissed, even if it means a Big 3 of AD, KD and Kyrie. There’s no possible way they can trade Zion if they win the lottery.

@137 I see what you did there… lmao

"An NBA veteran player that's very, very connected told me 15 minutes ago: KD to the Knicks is 100% done and he's made calls to other players." — @ColinCowherd pic.twitter.com/Swrm5xdfPj— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) May 14, 2019

@143 If it’s coming from Colin Cowherd it must be true. 🙂

Cowherd got Daniel Jones right. And I’m still sick over it.

There’s no possible way they can trade Zion if they win the lottery.

The only thing that should stop that trade is Dolan wanting to make more money. He’ll make more money with the Zion hype train than with Davis.

The chances that Zion actually winds up being better than Davis have to be less than 50-50. Davis is already probably a top 15-20 player of all time and he hasn’t even peaked or been on a good enough team to cement his greatness on the biggest stages yet. People are forgetting how incredible Davis is.

If you want to assume Zion will be as effective as an undersized PF in the NBA as he was being Godzilla against college kids, I’m not going to argue too much. But then he still has to get a lot better to be in the conversation with Davis. By the time he becomes that player (if he does), we would have already extended him, he won’t be cheaper, and Davis will probably be still better.

If we get the first pick is it a wise move to trade that pick to AD?

Im really not liking that move. it will get as the cap space and AD is good but injury prone. I know Zion could be a question mark but i would love to have Zion for the rookie deal and take chance on him ( he could be a better player). With or without KD.

Not sure if same logic could be apply if we get 2 or 3 (that’s barret or reddish).

that’s just a mean thing to tell others…man, i love naps now…naps and gardening…holy fuck am i getting old…

I have 2 words for you.

Woodford Reserve.

After all this hype, how are we all going to feel when we draft Cam Reddish because he locked down Kevin Knox in 3 on 3?

You guys are just going to have to reconcile yourselves to the fact that KD is coming. I know that years of being a Knicks fan have beaten all of us down, but there is more smoke around this thing than in the Los Angeles area during California wildfire season.

so it was 30 years since we have a chance for number 1?

Thats funny in a way because our team sucks for more than a decade.

A bad team means we should be in a lottery but i think we are worst.

Never had that young draft pick to change our fortune and no wins.

Mediocre.

Hope this year is a change in direction. Hope we all learned in our mistakes before.

what ime is the draft? will it start in 10 min?

Why does it feel like finals game 7 tonight?

It will be hilarious when the Pels win this thing.

okay, time to sign off for a while…i’ve made a command decision while sitting here still at work – i’m gonna need a couple of glasses of wine and some smoke before checking out this lottery stuff…

who knows, maybe we’ll get lucky…and, then trade zion away…

preparing for the worst….

Woj reporing that if the Knicks land Zion, he will be staying at MSG. That is promising on one front, but probably means Mitch is likely gone if a deal for AD is done.

if we land the 5th if we land the 5th if we land the 5th

This shit is crazy

All I know is we made it past 5. Knicks film school put up a shot of the bars reaction.

Wow wow wow wow

Well, fuck. Better than 5.

Considering how likely we were to get 5, 3 isn’t too bad. Looks like we will have Ja or RJ to choose from. It’s not Zion though…..

Is Zion enough for AD to stay in NO? I doubt it, but that is a heck of a starting 5 with those 2 alone.

Also, fuck LA. 11th worst record and they land in the top 4. Fuck the Lakers and their charmed life.