(Monday, February 11, 2019 6:35:00 PM)
The Knicks have gone from just plain bad to historically awful. And it’s barely even bothering their fans.
The players, however, are not taking it lightly.
They lost a franchise-worst 17th straight game on Monday night with a 107-104 defeat to the Cavaliers, one of the only teams in the league…
(Monday, February 11, 2019 5:20:00 PM)
There haven’t been many highlights for the Knicks this season, but Mario Hezonja provided one Monday night.
He drove baseline unimpeded and rose to the rim with Cleveland’s Marquese Chriss coming from the help side to jump with him. But Hezonja had all the momentum and cocked his right arm back,…
(Monday, February 11, 2019 5:00:00 PM)
Jeremy Lin is on the move again, with the veteran guard getting waived by the Atlanta Hawks and intending to sign later this week with the playoff-contending Toronto Raptors.
The Hawks waived Lin on Monday and Jim Tanner, one of his agents, confirmed Lin’s plan to join Toronto, which was first…
(Monday, February 11, 2019 12:35:00 PM)
In the aftermath of the shocking trade that sent Kristaps Porzingis to Dallas, Dennis Smith Jr. has produced a pair of thrilling, high-scoring games: back-to-back 25 and 31 point outings against Detroit, a top 10 defense. As the only long-term prospect New York acquired in the deal, Smith’s continued…
(Monday, February 11, 2019 6:35:00 PM)
The Knicks have gone from just plain bad to historically awful. And it’s barely even bothering their fans.
The players, however, are not taking it lightly.
They lost a franchise-worst 17th straight game on Monday night with a 107-104 defeat to the Cavaliers, one of the only teams in the league…
(Monday, February 11, 2019 5:20:00 PM)
There haven’t been many highlights for the Knicks this season, but Mario Hezonja provided one Monday night.
He drove baseline unimpeded and rose to the rim with Cleveland’s Marquese Chriss coming from the help side to jump with him. But Hezonja had all the momentum and cocked his right arm back,…
(Monday, February 11, 2019 5:00:00 PM)
Jeremy Lin is on the move again, with the veteran guard getting waived by the Atlanta Hawks and intending to sign later this week with the playoff-contending Toronto Raptors.
The Hawks waived Lin on Monday and Jim Tanner, one of his agents, confirmed Lin’s plan to join Toronto, which was first…
(Monday, February 11, 2019 12:35:00 PM)
In the aftermath of the shocking trade that sent Kristaps Porzingis to Dallas, Dennis Smith Jr. has produced a pair of thrilling, high-scoring games: back-to-back 25 and 31 point outings against Detroit, a top 10 defense. As the only long-term prospect New York acquired in the deal, Smith’s continued…
(Monday, February 11, 2019 3:56:09 PM)
Lakers president of basketball operations Magic Johnson told reporters over the weekend that Ben Simmons had reached out to the team asking if he could get together with Johnson during the offseason to talk to him about playing in the NBA as a point guard with size. While Johnson suggested he’d be on board if […]
(Monday, February 11, 2019 11:55:48 AM)
FEBRUARY 11: The Knicks have officially signed Jenkins, the team announced today in a press release. Jenkins’ new contract will expires next Wednesday. FEBRUARY 9: Shooting guard John Jenkins, whose 10-day contract with the Wizards is set to expire, will join the Knicks on a 10-day deal, tweets Shams Charania of The Athletic. Jenkins appeared […]
(Monday, February 11, 2019 10:00:26 PM)
The New York Knicks lost their 17th consecutive game Monday, setting a single-season franchise record. At 10-46, the Knicks have the worst record in the NBA.
(Monday, February 11, 2019 8:11:32 PM)
CLEVELAND — Knicks coach David Fizdale may need the upcoming All-Star break to go someplace warm and reorganize his thoughts. Ten days before the Kristaps Porzingis blockbuster, Fizdale had stretched the boundaries when he said the 7-foot-3 Latvian had been “really engaged’’ with his team. Either he exaggerated the truth or misread Porzingis. Now the…
(Monday, February 11, 2019 4:21:45 PM)
CLEVELAND — Maybe the Knicks won’t win again until Kevin Durant arrives. The main characters were different but the worst kind of history was made by the Knicks at Quicken Loans Arena on Monday night. With newcomers John Jenkins and Dennis Smith Jr. missing final-second 3-pointers, the Knicks set a franchise record for the longest…
(Monday, February 11, 2019 9:26:21 AM)
CLEVELAND — As the Knicks face the prospect of setting the franchise record for most consecutive losses at 17 in Monday’s “Zion Bowl” against the Cavaliers, rookie Kevin Knox is upset some of the team’s fans aren’t more annoyed. Knicks coach David Fizdale is also disappointed by the perception he’s coaching to lose games to…
(Monday, February 11, 2019 8:53:49 AM)
Kevin Durant is blaming local media for his impending free agency becoming a national story. In explaining last week’s tirade at a postgame press conference, the Warriors forward said he believes team beat writers have gone “behind [his] back,” by writing that the Knicks’ trade of Kristaps Porzingis may foreshadow the two-time NBA Finals MVP…
[NYTimes] Toronto’s Kawhi Leonard Banks Home Game-Winner Against Nets (Tuesday, February 12, 2019 4:12:24 AM)
D’Angelo Russell had 28 points and 15 assists for the Nets, but his shot on Brooklyn’s final possessions bounced off the rim, sending his team to defeat.
[NYTimes] Fairfax Accuser Told Friends She Was Raped by Corey Maggette (Tuesday, February 12, 2019 3:20:05 AM)
A woman who has accused Virginia’s lieutenant governor of sexual assault told friends she had been raped by Mr. Maggette, a former N.B.A. player, while he was at Duke University.
[NYTimes] N.B.A. Denies Threatening Pelicans With Fines for Benching Anthony Davis (Tuesday, February 12, 2019 12:55:46 AM)
Davis, who requested a trade last month, is one of several players who have been healthy scratches this season even though they wanted to play.
[NYTimes] With Anthony Davis on His Way Out, New Orleans Tries to Plot Its Path (Tuesday, February 12, 2019 5:04:37 AM)
The Pelicans only have a few months left with their signature star, but until he is gone, a city hangs in the balance.
(Monday, February 11, 2019 10:01:33 PM)
The Knicks set a new franchise record with their longest losing streak (17 games) in franchise history after losing to the Cavaliers, 107-104, in Cleveland Monday night.
(Monday, February 11, 2019 6:30:16 PM)
The Knicks and Cavs — the two worst teams in the league — will play in Cleveland at 7:00 p.m.
(Monday, February 11, 2019 11:30:00 AM)
The Knicks are currently losers of 16 straight games and have the worst record in the NBA with under half a season to play. This may be reason enough for some to tune out, but the team’s collection of young talent now has a touch over two months to develop their game over extended NBA minutes.
140 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2019.02.12)”
I mean, he just lost 17 in a row. So, if my perception is that he’s trying to win, then he’s doing a horrible job. take that for data?
maybe i’m stretching even my limits of optimism, but I have been semi-encouraged recently with the play of the team.
1- the defense is clearly improving. That is likely a combination of the defense actually improving and lack of Enes/THJ, but over the last month we have the #16 defense in the league. Over the last 5 games, it’s up to the #12 defense. Some of that is the schedule, but given we are #27 in defense for the season, there is a clear uptick. To be honest, given how bad our offense has been (and so the opposing offense rarely has to take the ball from OOB), the defensive effort is all the more impressive
2 – I really like Kadeem Allen. I think he can be a bench piece moving forward. Dude fills up the box score (basically 5 rebounds, 6.5 assists per 36), never turns the ball over (6.4-to-1 AST:TO ratio) and keeps the ball moving. he has a net-net rating of +11.8 (-2.8 while on floor, -14.6 while off floor). Still small sample of course (178 minutes) but I think he is another find from Westchester. It’s only been a few years but it sure seems like guards out of Westchester overperform.
3 – Mitchell Robinson is a boss. No doubt he is the best prospect on the team, and maybe the best player on the team right now.
On a pessimistic note-
1 – Kevin Knox has taken over as tank commander. Hilarious that he’s all upset about fans rooting for tanking when he is literally the tank commander. I am increasingly nervous about him, but sure, give him 35 minutes/game and let him figure it out. As Fizdale said, what are we going to do, lose more games?
2 – Trier looks lost.
3 – The starting lineup looks like it literally has no clue what it’s doing on offense. How did we end up with Deandre Jordan post-ups and facilitating from the elbow?
My only aspiration regarding Kevin Knox is to trade him this summer before the league realizes he’s destined to be a poor man’s Tobias Harris. I wonder if Minnesota would do something surrounding Knox for Robert Covington this summer.
Just you wait. Knox is only 19!! Soon he’ll suck at the age of 20!!
Getting Kanter, THJ, and Mudiay off the court helped the defense.
Now if we could just get Knox off the court and Frank on the court the defense would improve further.
I still think some of the best lineups we had were the ones we tried early in the season when various combinations of Frank, Dotson, Robinson and Vonleh were out there. I also thought it was so ridiculously obvious that the “defense first” lineups were better that I lost some respect for Fizdale when he ended that group quickly and said “they aren’t winning” as if the trash he was putting out there the rest of the time was doing better.
Again, I haven’t given up on Knox, but he is so ridiculously bad and so far away from deserving the minutes he’s getting, it will be interesting to see how they handle it next year. If they do manage to bring in a “star” or two, they will obviously be trying to win and make the playoffs. If that’s the case, unless Knox makes a huge leap in the off season, he can’t play more than backup minutes.
Not able to do a recap today but I’d like to tell you that my new surgically improved eyesight tells me that Knox sucks very bad.
I do have to say that the final play that got Jenkins a wide open look at a 3 was pretty nice. I’d have to go back and look and see if that was actually a play or just improv from DSJ, but you can’t really get a better look than a wide open corner 3 from a guy shooting 43% from 3 point range on ridiculous volume this season.
Also Vonleh has sucked balls the last month or so.
I don’t think putting a very bad Knox out there for 30 plus minutes helps his development. Give him 15-20 and make him do a limited set of things he can do, if there are any. Then we’ll see.
Hard to imagine. Covington is good, and Knox is very, very not good.
That’s a pretty high bar right now, I’d say more like a poor man’s Andrew Wiggins.
I really don’t see the point of limiting minutes. This isn’t David Carr’s 2002 Texans, allowing their prized franchise QB to be violently hit during nearly 15% (!) of his dropbacks. He’s 19! Let him play 40 MPG.
Not to mention that Minnesota, despite their record, is very much in win-now mode. They will be $107M in salary next year (assuming Teague opts in at $19M) and have $53-65M owed to Wiggins + Towns until the summer of 2023. They have no time for “projects,” and would be foolish to give up RoCo’s ~3 BPM for Knox’s negative ~6.0 during the years that they need non-scoring role players to complement their “stars.”
Yes, negative six. That’s our 3-on-3 star!
He might be gassed. He has already played more high energy minute this year than in any other season. He’s also just a role player.
His value comes primarily from high energy switching, defending multiple positions, rebounding and a little play making. You just hope he gives you enough scoring and at an efficient enough level to not be a liability on offense.
With Jordan on the court, both his defense and rebounding are less essential. At that point you need him to be hitting 3s at a high clip (which he’s not anymore) or he’s kind of useless. He’s going through a pretty serious reversion to the mean.
IMO, he was a great theoretical fit next to KP and even good next to Kanter because he could cover for him defensively. Now I’m not so sure we need him, though I still like him as a role player off the bench.
This tank is going so well that I can actually start rooting for the occasional win soon. I’m circling next Friday, Feb 22 against Minnesota as a night I can unabashedly root for the Knicks.
And speaking of Minnesota, yes they would trade Covington for Knox and probably have to throw something in. How many drafts do you need to watch before you realize that the NBA values youth, upside, athleticism, and points more than being smart and efficient? You think a team that gave a $150 million contract to Andrew Wiggins wouldn’t be interested in trading for a 20 year old lottery pick in his second year because he’s wasteful? Come on. Most NBA GMs do not share our sensibilities.
Knox should shoot threes and get out in transition (1.185 PPP for him in transition, solidly above average oddly enough). That’s it.
If he limits himself to those things he might be able to carve out a career as a (small) role player. If he continues to think he’s a “pure scorer,” he’s either gonna ruin his own career or ruin the team that falls for that bullshit (probably the New York Knicks).
I think you have identified the problem.
He doesn’t do anything especially well.
Let’s fantasize a little and say we land Durant and Irving. At that point we’d have one of the best scorers in the NBA, one of the greatest scorers of all time, and plenty of play making between the two.
So what do we need to go with that?
IMO, we need elite role players that are defenders, rebounders, 3 point shooters, ball movers….
You don’t want a guy like Knox that does a little bit of everything on offense at a mediocre level. That won’t add any value.
You want a guy like Robinson scoring efficiently around the basket on limited usage, defending the rim, and rounding.
You want a guy like Frank to focus 100% of his attention on locking down on D and keeping the ball moving.
Robinson needs to get stronger so he can rebound better and Frank need to shoot 2000 3s a day in the off season. Then they will move into the category of elite role players playing along with the star scorers and play makers.
If the Knicks land Durant there will be no time for Knox. I’d prefer we trade him for Kevin Huerter or Robert Covington than something stupid like Bradley Beal
You didn’t want to trade him last week!
The thing is that one of these guys is an elite prospect and the other is on pace to get his second contract from a mid-tier overseas team
I want to keep him now, but I think he’s less essential now.
To me basketball is not all about aggregate stats like WS or BPM (or whatever you favorite flavor is). It’s also about maximizing the output of the TEAM by putting the right mix of players on the court at the same time. I saw Vonleh as the perfect fit next to KP when we put KP at C. So I thought it would be a big mistake to move on from him and then be looking for his replacement a few months later. But his skillset is less essential without KP and especially if we are thinking of keeping Jordan.
It wouldn’t be the first time we disagree. 🙂
Robinson is unquestionably the better prospect because he’s already got 2 elite skills in shot blocking and scoring around the basket. If you tried to make him a primary scorer you’d have a problem (at least for now and in the near future ). Throw him on the court with 2 elite scorers, he’s going to add a TON of value.
Frank is fully capable of locking down on D, switching multiple positions, helping ball movement, and being a secondary play maker. But he’s woeful as a scorer. This thing is, if he adds a 3, he can also easily become an elite role player on a team with 2 primary scorers/play makers even if very few people here understand that because they are looking at boxscore models that are measuring his value incorrectly.
Funny how opinions here change like the wind…
Oh, he can do the minutes. But I doubt he’s learning anything. It’s also a confidence killer, to suck every time you try something.
Piggybacking on last night’s comments….
Paul George really is showing me something this year. I always thought him a little overrated, kind of an eye test special. He’s definitely proving me wrong this year.
I also found Steve Ballmer’s comments about them not having any kind of proprietary data that the fans don’t have to be interesting. I would have thought that there would be something out there by now…
And if Robinson adds a couple post moves, he can “easily” become an elite all-around player.
There’s nothing easy about a player learning a fundamental skill like shooting, especially when that player has made just 29.1% of his shots from distance this season. Over the last two, he’s shooting 30.7% on 267 attempts. There is literally nothing in his offensive game that shows NBA-level talent. As several of us have said, it’s hard to see him as even a functional NCAA guard right now, much less playing wing in the world’s best basketball league. If he were in Euroleague he would be a 12th man at best. He’s simply too bad on offense.
So yes, he could “easily” become an elite role player if he performs the very difficult task of learning how to shoot. See how easy that is? (A: Not at all!)
He’ll suck whether he plays 5 minutes or 40. I just don’t see him getting the yips from playing more minutes. And if he can’t hold his confidence while under a 4-year, $16M deal and being the #3 minutes-player of an NBA franchise as a rookie, he shouldn’t be in the NBA.
I think you could make the argument that it hurts confidence to tell a guy he’s a part of your core and make him ride the pine on a 10-42 team. Mo Bamba getting picked #6 and playing 16 MPG on a lottery team doesn’t make much sense to me, either. (And Bamba has been pretty good, outside of the month of December.)
For Knox, I don’t think he should be playing 40. I think Dred should start his path to the GM position by getting a bench job that involves sitting next to Knox and saying “Don’t do that” (Mudiay), “Don’t do that” (Frank), “Do that” (random opposing player) and then sending him in for two 10-minute stretches per game to try and (don’t) do that.
Hear that, guys? Frank is just one small step away from “elite.” All he has to do is get that 3pt% up and he will be an elite role player!
Never mind the 1.2 FTA/36 or the 3.4 REB/36 or the .380 percentage on 2-pointers. If he just gets that .307 3pt% up, look out, you have an elite role player on your hands!
“Elite.” That’s the funniest thing I’ve seen in a while. Frank is so far away from “elite” he needs a telescope to see “terrible.”
Man the Knox hate on here is STRONG. You guys need to lighten up a bit.
I have no evidence to refute anything you are saying objectively. But the kid had a great December. He’s played more minutes than any Knick rookie I can ever remember in my lifetime. He’s clearly hit a wall.
I’m on the fence about him playing so much. People say he’s not learning anything from playing so much and I’m not so sure. Fizdale said at the beginning that he wanted him to take his licks this year. If he believes he can handle all these minutes and poor play, then let him play. On the other hand, he probably would play A LOT better if he was playing 25 minutes max a game instead of 35 to 40 minutes a game.
Even if Robinson didn’t get into foul trouble so easily, would he look as good as he does if he played 35 to 40 minutes a night? I bet he wouldn’t.
Think about this. Knox has probably played more minutes of basketball this season than he did his entire freshman year at UK and all of his high school career combined (and against much tougher competition). Let him finish out the season. Hit the gym and weight room this summer, work on some specific glaring weaknesses and let’s see how much he improves next year before we right him off.
I get you all don’t like the pick. But he’s a kid. I mean, we should support him and hope he does well. He isn’t a lost cause. Shitting on him endlessly from your keyboard just seems…I don’t know…Mean? Sad? Gross?
I don’t think its about him getting the yips. I think its about his conditioning and ability to play at a high level for 35 minutes to 40 minutes a game. I don’t think confidence is really an issue with him but conditioning is. Maybe Fiz figures playing him so many minutes will get him conditioned and next year if he plays 25 minutes a game he will find that easier because he went through hell this year.
I really don’t mean to pile on Frank. I like everything I’ve seen from him from a character standpoint and it’s not like he’s our only shitty player. We did take him in the lottery and we may have to make a decision regarding his contract soon though, so it’s a good idea for us to have a firm grasp of the kind of player he is, so I guess I’ll respond.
I think Frank is an above average man-to-man defender, but there is absolutely no evidence he is such a game-changing defender that he’s playable even with a 50% TS, much less the 42% he’s currently rocking.
I’ve heard people bring up Tony Allen (who wasn’t a total zero offensively in his prime and got his TS% to around league average levels on average usage), but he lead the league in STL% twice and regularly posted DBPMs that were elite for non-bigs. Not to mention the NBA has only become increasingly centered around offense since Allen’s prime.
I mentioned this the other day–if we’re being painfully literal about the phrase “ball movement,” then sure, Frank helps. He definitely doesn’t, like, call plays for himself. The thing is I see no empirical evidence of Frank being above average when it comes to putting his teammates in good position to score, and that’s very much aligned with my own observations. He pitches the ball to a teammate because he can’t really do anything with it himself and runs to a corner. I fail to see how this adds to an offense.
If we use the phrase “ball movement” the way I’ve always understood it (players being put in a good position to score), DSJ for example trounces Frank in the department.
One day you’re going to have to confront the possibility that it’s actually you, not every single model (some box score based, some not like RPM) and every single other person, that’s wrong here.
Instead of responding to the ridiculous notion that Frank is one mere decent 3PT shot away from being “an elite role player,” I’ll just ask you this; at what age/point in Frank’s career will you say “huh, maybe those infinite indications that he actually just sucks ass were onto something?”
That’s crazy talk. He’s going to turn 21 years old this summer. How much more time do you want to give him?
cue the soft bigotry of low expectations
Countdown to a claim about objective player performance in 3… 2… 1…
.502 TS%, -13.8 +/-, -20 net rating, 21 assists in 488 minutes, rebounding like Bargnani at 6.2 TRB/36
He hit the wall in October and has yet to be scraped off and brought to the ER.
k
k?
The development philosophy with Fizdale is sort of interesting to me. Vonleh definitely has had more freedom under Fizdale than he had in the past – bringing the ball up, posting up, taking dudes off the dribble, etc. Knox CLEARLY would be best off production-wise if Fizdale told him to stand in the corner and wait for spot-up attempts, get out in transition, and then only duress try to take guys off the dribble etc — but that’s clearly not what Fizdale is telling him. Fizdale is asking him (or at least not telling him NOT) to spot up, shoot off motion, be PNR ballhandler, make decisions with the ball, etc etc — and it’s clearly not working production-wise. Is he just trying to get him reps so at some point Knox has seen all the different coverages and understands what will work for him? Or is Fizdale just accumulating game tape so he can see what is salvageable and what’s not?
Contrast that with Mitchell Robinson, who seems to be doing exactly what he should be doing to maximize his on-court productivity. Like, you don’t see him at the top of the key shooting 3’s or whatever. He’s diving on the PNR, catching oops, rebounding, and bashing these poor souls’ jumpers out of the arena.
He’s played about 200 minutes more this year than he did at Kentucky, so if you think Kevin Knox played 200 minutes in high school, okay.
And this is exactly why picking “high upside” freshmen draftees is not a good strategy to use one’s very, very few assets to select and develop young players. If what you’re saying is that he hasn’t played enough basketball to be good at basketball, he shouldn’t be playing NBA basketball.
See, this is where you really lose me. No, I didn’t like the pick. And yeah, he’s a teenager (who will make more over these 82 games than most of us will in our entire careers). And yeah, I hope he does well, because there’s no other choice. He isn’t a lost cause. But he is an objectively bad basketball player, and no amount of hope will change that.
And about “shitting on him from [our keyboards]?” When you enter a highly-compensated sports league, people will have opinions about whether you’ve earned your salary on the court. And aside from his stupid comment about “true New Yorkers,” no one here is saying he should be thrown into the East River. We’re merely saying that he sucks at basketball and has shown nothing but suck so far. And that’s factorial, no matter how you feel about it.
What the hell are you talking about? No one here is actively rooting for Kevin Knox to fail. We’re talking bluntly about his flaws as a player because the team we root for drafted him with a lottery pick a few months ago, which pretty much automatically confers “important player” status on him.
As has been told to you many times before, if you prefer a never-ending stream of nonsensical optimism there’s always…just about every other Knicks based site on the internet.
so while we are talking monthly stats, here are Robinson’s per-36 #s in the month of Feb:
20.8 points, 13.2 rebounds (6.4 offensive, 6.8 defensive), 4.2 blocks, zero turnovers, TS 78 on usage of 14.5
is that good?
Hah, Frank, check this out:
actually- importantly he is averaging 4.7 fouls per 36, which is not good, but better than his 6.2 season average!
this is a very small sample naturally, but hey, we have to root for something.
It’s only against backups while playing for a bad team, so no. If he was good do you really think NBA GMs would have let him get to the second round?
@39 LMAO that’s actually pretty funny
Yeah, please stop with this stupid “rooting for this kid to fail” narrative. It’s idiotic and in bad faith.
I fucking hated Carmelo Anthony and even then I never rooted for him to lose or get injured or something like that, why would I ever want the rookie selected by the sad fucking franchise I’ve invested 20 years watching to fail, just because it would give me 2 inches more on my internet penis measure in an argument with people I probably will never meet?
My opinions on Knox have literally zero implications on how well he’s actually going to play, and what’s fucking sad is someone that constantly derails basketball arguments towards this moralistic crap of “hey if we just believe in him he will do it!” positive energy shit.
I’ve generally not been a fan of Fiz’s player development, but Knox is one instance where I think he’s got it right. Fiz said from day 1 that he’s going to let Knox get his ass kicked. He threw Knox in the deep end and he’s drowning as we expected. I don’t see how making minor tweaks to improve his efficiency in the middle of a lost season is going to do anything other than make us a little less unhappy. Let him learn on his own.
Perhaps it’s because that’s how I cut my teeth when I was 21 years old, as well, but I think this is a perfectly reasonable method of human resource development.
Think about if Knox was drafted by another team and we watched him a few times a year vs. our Knicks or maybe on NBA TV.
I think the universal sentiment would be “thank God we didn’t draft THAT dude”
I already KNOW that all these commonly used models are trash. What I don’t have is the time, inclination, or skill set to try to create something that works better. Besides, my experience with these kinds of things suggests that you are way better off subjectively analyzing data than building automated models. When there are this many variables and their values change depending on the conditions (not to mention missing information) it’s hard to model anything really well. Maybe you could do it with AI, but I don’t know. I just know I have yet to see anything I consider good.
at what age/point in Frank’s career will you say “huh, maybe those infinite indications that he actually just sucks ass were onto something?”
When I’m deciding something about someone I usually err on the side of being dumb (kind of like an oxman razor I heard about once, but I’m dumb)
So as a dumb man, do I believe Frank and Knox are salvageable when someone gives me info showing me how brutal they play? No.
As a dumb man, when I see a coach with poor rotations, poor plays after time outs, and poor minutes management always deferring to guys who dribble and take bad shots… do I second guess that?
As a dumb man, if I see guys like Vonleh and Mitch getting less minutes than guys like Hezonja and Knox, do I say- maybe they see something I don’t, or do I say, maybe the coach is a dumb man too! And maybe these guys really do suck!
That said, if I were Fiz, I’d play the shit out of Mitch, Frank and Knox (not Hezonja)- because what we gonna do, lose more games? At least we’ll know that much more about them, and develop them that much more. It’s not like we’re winning games without them, right brother dumb man fiz?
Collin Sexton, -6.2 BPM:
https://www.reddit.com/r/clevelandcavs/comments/apo9oh/collin_sexton_20_points_highlights_cavaliers_vs/
Top comments:
Where’s all the shitty fuckin hate comments? I don’t see nothing yet… this kid is going to be great for us
(haha, “these are his baby stages”)
I wouldn’t have wasted the #9 pick in the draft on a raw kid like Knox. But if you do draft him, this is absolutely the right way to develop him. If you wanted a guy to stand in the corner to shoot 3s, you draft Mikal Bridges. You don’t draft Kevin Knox and ask him to be Mikal Bridges.
@35
Very good point.
When the team is development mode, it’s hard to tell how much of the negative you see in a player is the coach trying to develop a new skill set and being willing to accept the mistakes and lower efficiency as part of it and how much is the player’s basketball IQ and role on this given team.
There are a few of players on this team that should almost never be trying to create off the dribble, but the team sucks so badly they find themselves in that position more often than would be optimal and they also probably have Fizdale telling them to be aggressive and go for it. It’s not just Knox.
The thing with Frank and Knox that’s discouraging is they both have to get a lot better at almost everything to be good. It’s not like a kid like Miles Bridges where you can say well, he needs to get better at making 3s and he’ll be at least a pretty good pro.
You’d make a great actuary. Or cardiologist. Or hedge fund manager. Or structural engineer. Or any other occupation that uses instinct over evidence-based training and mathematical modelling.
Um, I didn’t say people were actively rooting for him to fail. Those are your words, not mine. Why did you say those were my words? Hmm….
I said people were constantly shitting on him, which is true. Very big difference. And that it was kind of sad/mean/gross to do that on every single thread after every single game when he’s a super young and super raw player. He’s taking enough lumps as it is. Being a post millenial who probably lives on social media, he maybe even reads these comments. Who knows. I just think pointing out his flaws is very different than constantly shitting on him, saying he sucks, will never be good, etc. Its gross.
Anyone that thinks projecting player improvement should not be part of player evaluation is being ridiculous. If you want to argue that making projections is fraught with peril or that some people have better data and insights into making projections than others, that’s a perfectly reasonable position. But to discard such a basic valuation input as whether the player is likely to get better or worse and by how much is patently ridiculous. Argue for better data, not eliminating projections.
Imagine seeing a couple of guys with near-worst stats across the board, noting that their team overall is 10-42, and arguing that the individual stats must be wrong.
I think it’s that one. I agree with Hubert that Knox is actually getting the treatment we’d like to see Fizdale give all of the young players. Knox has been terrible with it, but Fizdale is giving him every opportunity to show something.
Sure, true enough.
But when a player stinks as a rookie, then comes back for his sophomore season and is actually worse, it’s probably not a real great sign.
No one’s arguing that future value shouldn’t be projected. You and much of the board are in disagreement about where the current valuation stands. According to the stats available, Knox is among the worst players in the league. Ntilikina might be the single worst player in the league.
I would dare you to find someone who doesn’t think that Ntilikina and Knox will be better basketball players at 25 than they are at 19. The question is how a player gets from, say, a -6.0 BPM to a +6 BPM, and how often.
There have been a few mathematical model builders that have beaten horse racing for a LOT of money, but most fail despite great educations, an extra 20-30 IQ points, and dedicated staffs. The guys that typically win (though on a much smaller scale) do manual grunt work and subjectively analyze information and data.
I’ve tried to automate my own thinking, but I always get into these endless “what if this”, “what if that” scenarios that break the model in specific cases. I see the same thing in basketball. On a broad basis the models do fine, but some players are woefully undervalued or overvalued because the model is missing information or using incorrect weights for certain combinations.
What I do now for horse racing is build tools and reports that made the subjective analysis quicker and easier.
I understand what you are saying now, but we should be more specific. It’s not that we shouldn’t project, it’s that even if we project more improvement for player X he still looks like a bad deal compared to player Y.
We agree on Knox.
We disagree on Frank because imo the models people are using to evaluate his current value are wrong. They aren’t capturing what he does well and it’s a huge part of the game.
It’s not really true to say “Frank just needs a three point shot then he’ll be a break-even player on offense.”
League average 3pt% this year is .354.
League average eFG% is .523.
League average TS% is .559.
Frank’s 3pt% is .291.
His eFG% is .400.
His TS% is .419.
So needless to say he’s pretty far in the hole. But let’s turn him into Steph Curry as a three-point shooter, let’s give him a .445 percentage from three. How does that affect his eFG% and TS%?
His new eFG% would be 492.
His new TS% would be .508.
That’s with a Steph Curry rate of hitting 3’s.
He would still be a shitty offensive player, 30 points below league average eFG% and 50 points below average TS%. Why? Because he can’t make twos– can’t get layups, bunnies, dunks. And he also can’t generate free throws. Why? Because he can’t dribble and has no handle. He’s horrific around the basket.
So it’s not really accurate at all to say he’d be a “break even” offensive player unless his whole game undergoes some miraculous transformation. Turning him into Steph Curry as a perimeter shooter does not get the job done.
And I hate to break the news to you, but he’s turning into Steph Curry as a perimeter shooter approximately never.
@61
/thread
I agree with the idea that models fail to capture huge parts of the game but I’m done thinking that applies to Frank. If you want to tell me Bradley Beal is underrated bc he defends the 3pt line very well and no system accounts for that, OK. But Frank? The shit he’s good at is important but he hasn’t even been that good at it. The shit he’s terrible at is much more important, and he’s been incredibly bad at it.
That’s really been the thing for me. While I would prefer to see a rookie be good their first year, if they suck, I don’t worry about it. Once they return in their second year and don’t improve, then I am nearing the point of just giving up on them. If they return in their second year and get worse? Then, well, fuck that noise. You can’t get worse in your second year after being bad in your first. It just doesn’t work.
I can’t believe it’s been NINETEEN YEARS since Vince Carter had his amazing dunk contest win and he’s still playing!
I’m actually a bit more hopeful about Knox than I was when he was drafted. I really did not like him going into the draft (I saw him play a lot that year). He seemed real lazy on the court. However, he’s been a much more aggressive player than I thought he’d be. He does try to drive a lot and is a willing rebounder.
But yeah, he’s real raw, read bad. He needs to get much stronger, and somehow develop a much better BBIQ, if that is even possible. He might always be bad. I’m not sure he’ll ever be a decent defender. Right now this is good for the Knicks b/c last night he pretty much drove the tank.
Still, just like Frank (if he ever gets back from his groin pull), just keep playing the dude and cross your fingers. If you are going to draft 19 and 20 years olds, you have to be extra patient. Now that we have him, I feel the same way about DSJ. But will the FO be patient this offseason?
Good game between the Raptors and the Nets, who were without Dinwiddie and Carroll and almost pulled out the W. 24 points for Joe Harris on 10 t-shots.
What is up with Luka’s free throw shooting? Strange that he shot 80% last year on 5/game and is down at 72% this year on 6/game Turnover rate a touch high. To the point about projecting a player to be better, it’s pretty easy to see both those numbers going in a highly positive direction next year.
Ivica Zubac was a -35 in a start for the Clippers yesterday. Lou Williams had 45! on 33 true shots (but 7 turnovers.) And Montrezl Montrezled. Meanwhile, Derrick Rose is an above average NBA guard. Hard to believe.
http://bkref.com/tiny/6YJBu
So in the last 10 seasons, there have been 31 teenage rookies who played more than 1,000 minutes.
The top 7:
Doncic, Irving, Drummond, Davis, Tatum, JJJ, Jarrett Allen — all players you’d be happy to have on the Knicks.
Then you’ve got a bunch of good, average and meh players like Beal, Winslow, Harkless, Holiday, Turner, D. Russell and Jamal Murray, with MVP candidate Giannis at #13. Bunch of scrubs in there too — Exum, MKG, Ingram.
Look at the bottom of the list, though. Ntilikina, Mudiay, LaVine, Knox, Vaughn.
Tell me that you can look at that list and say, “Oh, nothing to be concerned about!” Obviously this list skews toward bad teams that are willing to play rookies a ton of minutes, but even if you back it out to >500 MP, Knox is still 42nd of 43 and Ntilikina jumps to 34. Kanter makes an appearance at #40, so given that he was, for a time, a pretty dominant offensive big, there’s your outlier. The rest of the list’s dregs continued to be shitty players.
Back it out to 2001 and Knox comes in 68th of 71. (Zaza and Telfair bottom out the list.) Back it out to 1990 and Knox is 73rd of 76. Of the shot-clock era, 74th of 77.
There’s no way around the fact that there are very, very few players who played as badly as Knox has and went on to become serviceable NBA players.
Yeah, Kanter also didn’t play basketball the year before he came to the NBA. As we have seen with Mitch, that’s very difficult to overcome.
should it really be any other way on a fan forum…
i’m not sure where to find a shot selection chart (or stats), but, i thought coming in to the year knox’s thing was going to be getting to the rim…it doesn’t seem like he gets to the rim all that much really…
i just found it: https://stats.nba.com/players/shooting/
wow, most of his shot attempts (5.6) are from 20 feet out or more…he only has attempted 3.1 shots per game (hitting at a rate of 46.7%) from five feet and in…
Man, I don’t know what’s with you- How can you completely ignore the fact that Knox is a RISING STAR??? And Fiz is going make sure he gets a chance to speak to LBJ for a few minutes during All-Star weekend- Invaluable!
@68 while the data is most definitely not promising it really is still a very small sample. And the trend clearly shows that there are many more of them (31 in last 10 years versus 77 total in shot clock era). So we will see much more data over the next 10 years because of the trend to drafting younger as to whether those terrible starts in the 19-20 years can be overcome or not. And if so, how long it takes.
@66
I keep hearing this idea that you’ve got to be extra patient with every 19 year old and while that’s obviously true to an extent, I also look around the league and I don’t really see it.
We’re watching a draft class where the top 5 is all around 19-20 years old and they’re all showing production or real promise. Even Young and Bagley who are the weakest in terms of production, are obviously NBA players already. Knox and Ntilikina are not being treated with the same respect because they have literally shown nothing and they’re stats are absolutely terrible – worse player in the league level.
Yes, it is possible for players like this to improve and it’s even likely that they will improve, but can we stop with this BS that it’s 4-6 years until we can evaluate player performance?
There is definitely a lot to be concerned about!
The Knicks basicall went all in on a hand that has a 60% chance of busting. It was a terrible decision.
Where we are now is this:
– Some of us are looking at the fact that we have a couple of outs and can still pull out this hand that we shouldn’t have gone all in on.
– Some of us are detailing how likely it is that we’re going to bust.
A dude the other week had Knox on his first team All-Rookie Team! Count the pointzz!
https://twitter.com/TheFrankIsola/status/1095416198945271814?s=20
Frank Isola, the undisputed king of Knicks slander, is saying the New York media isn’t tough anymore. Durant and Isola might actually have a fist fight if the Knicks go on a 3 game losing streak.
Not sure what this referring to but I think the consensus on this board has been pretty firm on Frank and Knox pretty much all the way. Most people panned the Knox pick. Most people were skeptical of the hype coming out of summer league (which has proven quite durable). Most people have been waiting for real production.
With Frank, as soon as we saw him there was general amazement at how high and crappy his handle was and how limited his explosiveness off the dribble was for a point guard prospect. Nothing’s changed there. I don’t think anyone has ever given him a pass for that or complimented him on his defense without pointing out how inept he has looked on offense.
This is absolutely true, but there are almost no players who were in the league at 19 who played as badly as Knox. There weren’t even that many guys who were in the league at 19 and played at all, good or bad. So when you’re saying “No 19 year old forward who has played as badly as Knox in the NBA has ever been good” you’re talking about like 7 guys.
For anyone interested in possible portents, I decided to take a peak at the road to the kentucky derby. There is a horse named Knicks Go who won the Breeder’s Futurity at Keeneland last fall as a 70-1 shot, and then ran second as a 40-1 shot in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.
So a horse named after the Knicks pulled off the equivalent of signing Durant and Kyrie.
Yeah, I was thinking about that recently when there was some sort of superlative attached to some teen in the NBA (maybe it was Knox?), something like “The first teenager to do X since Lebron James!” and I thought, “Well, yeah, but how many teenagers play a lot in the NBA? It’s almost all guys in the last decade. Not exactly a huge sample size.”
@78 that is exactly my point. where is the cut off on that list for players that can make it from bad to good and how long does it take? would we rather have JJJ sure but there is very little data there at all.
But how relevant is it that he’s a “teenager”, how many 20 year olds that are this bad get better? Does it really matter that Knox is 6 months younger than those guys?
Will he really learn so much in those extra 6 months that he’ll make up for the fact that his production right now is absolutely terrible? Or if he stayed 2 more seasons in Kentucky? You guys can bank on that all you want, I’ll believe it when he does it. As of now, we’re discussing what he’s showing us and what he’s showing is terrible.
There have been 61 seasons played by an age 20 forward since 1998 per b-ref. I’m sure you could throw in some combo guard forwards and get a few more, but we’re still in fairly unexplored territory.
I think there are some teenagers who are clearly underdeveloped physically and for them 6 months can make a real difference. Knox is reportedly still growing and pretty clearly lacks NBA-level strength at the moment. I think he’s got more chance for improvement than some other guys but as you say, he’s absolutely terrible at the moment. Adding some strength and weight plus some ball-handling improvement should go a long way towards improving his game but his base level is so bad he’s like Mudiay- he could improve a lot and still be bench fodder.
i’m curious, is there anyone who would have taken knox or was neutral on draft day but feels differently now? i’m not talking about the chance to cherry pick the best looking low-pick rookie here (hi mitch). rather, given a redo,is there any former knox-optimist who would now trade knox for a dice roll to get 1 of the subsequent 5 picks:
mikal
sga
miles
jerome robinson
porter jr
We could also say that Knox will be advantaged in the sense that he will have about 2,000 minutes of NBA experience going into his 20-year-old season. So if he puts up another all-time-worst season next year, we could ding him for his experience as much as we can praise him for being young.
I again say that it’s bad practice to draft these young guys if their age forces management to make high-risk extensions like those of Aaron Gordon, Zach LaVine, Evan Fournier, Devin Booker, Andrew Wiggins, Justise Winslow, Dante Exum, Meyers Leonard, and anyone else who was still 22 or 23 and full of “upside” at the time of their oversized rookie extension.
Also, here’s a list of average draftee age by year.
https://heatcheckcbb.com/2017/06/23/the-2017-nba-draft-class-is-one-of-the-youngest-ever/
So yeah, it’s getting younger, but I wouldn’t really call it some kind of extraordinary leap.
pt, unlike with the Ntilikina pick, there was almost universal agreement that Knox was somewhere between a highly questionable and a terrible pick. At this point, I think nearly all of us would be happy with at least 3 out of the 5 players on that list instead of Knox, and for some, all 5. Sadly, Knox is indeed out pick, as is Frank (sigh) so these kind of hypotheticals, especially when the answer is so obvious, aren’t all that useful. At the very least, a better question would be: who would you now trade Knox for straight up? You could include Zhaire Smith on the list. He was definitely mentioned as a reasonable #9 pick at draft time. Lonnie Walker, too.
Personally, I’m not as down on Knox as some. He does show some flashes…a clutch 3 here, a steal, rebound, or block there…and he does have great size/length for a combo forward. There’s still some hope that he’s in the “came out of college way too early” pool. Doesn’t mean I’m optimistic, just holding out hope.
Get to see Lebron play basketball tonight live. Hope the Hawks at least keep it close, if not pull out the whole win!
Nice, Silky, have fun!
Jowles, the article clearly suggest that non-NBA-ready players are declaring for the draft, and are then getting picked for “upside” more now than ever. If you go back a bunch of years, nearly every teenager drafted was thought to be “can’t miss.” Now, GMs picking in the lottery are made to feel stupid if they draft an accomplished upperclassman (e.g. Mikal) over an intriguing freshman or Euro teen.
The other thing is that coaches were much less inclined to play rookies in general, and certainly teenagers who sucked.
Get to see Lebron play basketball tonight live. Hope the Hawks at least keep it close, if not pull out the whole win!
smart move. i’ll be there on thursday to watch 18 minutes of mitchlob and 30 minutes of hell. less smart.
The idea that a young player gains an advantage by playing more minutes has been thoroughly debunked by many nba statisticians, most notably Kevin Pelton. 500 minutes or 2,000 minutes doesn’t matter. That’s the problem with everyone counting minutes here. 4,000 NBA minutes accumulated in age 19 and 20 is not the same as 4,000 Andrea Bargnani minutes from age 23 & 24. We’re applying a method that’s meant for an apple to an orange.
I recall hearing in interesting point made during a baseball interview. The question was something like “why do rookies play so poorly?”
The answer was enlightening: Rookies know nobody on the team, players, coaches, trainers, support staff, traveling secretary etc. The spend energy leaning names and developing relationships. They don’t know their way around the facility, how to find decent parking. They’re in a new home, have access to money they didn’t previously have. There’s more. All of these things are not specific to hitting and fielding, but the rookie player cannot specifically concentrate on the game. Once they get in a comfort zone the performance follows.
I don’t like what I see when I watch Knox/Frank/Trier et all, but I am willing to give them ample time to develop before I run them out of town. Frank is 19 and working in a foreign country. Knox hasn’t finished growing into his giant feet, but he’s on his own in NYC.
So I was curious to see how bad Knox’s terrible season has been so I decided to compare his numbers to the worst player who’s ever worn a Knicks uniform and isn’t part of JR Smith’s immediate family.
It’s not good.
Knox’s and Bargnani’s numbers are shockingly similar, the only real difference being that Bargnani was a better shooter. The good news is if he continues like this, after 7 seasons we can trade him to the worst run team in the league and expect to get back a 1st round pick!
@92
I do worry about how playing with the Knicks affects a chance for a young player, too. Maybe there’s a chance that Knox, Frank, or DSJ would fare better in San Antonio with Pops? Last year here there was Dead Man Walking Jeff Hornacek coaching and this year Fiz the Carnival Barker.
And then there’s Mills and Dolan. D’oh!
🙂
So is anyone going to address the obvious reality that Ben Simmons is already colluding with Magic to leave a winning championship contending team in Philly for the Lakers? The NBA has a real problem.
This whole post was some really stellar old man yelling at clouds, but I am enamored of this continued insistence: that it is just so difficult to really know anything, Strato has no choice but to trust his trust his impeccable gut.
Ntilikina has numbers showing that last year he was elite at one very specific element of playing basketball – guarding the ball handler in PNRs. He has numbers showing he was extremely bad at most everything else. And this year he’s been worse across the board, on defense as well as offense. To insist at this point that he’s anything remotely like a promising prospect is a strong indicator that it’s just gas.
For what its worth, I have no problem with anyone giving up on FRANK. His second season has been a huge let down, worse than his rookie. That’s ok if you have a great rookie season and have a bit of a sophomore slump but no improvement worries me. I hope we still give him next year to improve but I’m not expecting it to happen at this point. IT seems like he gets injured a lot too.
Knox, though…is a rookie. I just don’t think we should ever write a rookie off no matter how bad they are especially when they show a lot of potential, which I think he has shown. December was a pretty good month for him. He’s played too many minutes though.
I don’t think Frank has regressed in the skills sense this year compared to last. But his first year he only played point guard when he played. This year he plays 2 or even 3 a lot of the time. When he’s at the two or the three, he just looks lost and doesn’t do much of anything. This averages in with his stints at point guard this year to make him look worse overall. When he’s playing point guard, to me he looks the same or a little better than last year. It’s hard to test this with statistics, because I don’t know how to get his statistics sorted out by which position he was playing.
When I read this, I thought, maybe this is part of the Knicks strategy for tanking. Contrast this with how Milwaukee plays. When I watched them play the Knicks, almost every shot was a three pointer by someone who could make it, or another sort of good shot, like Giannis in transition. I can’t believe that Fizdale doesn’t know enough basketball to organize the team a little differently and have, in this case Knox, only or mostly do what he does best. (not that he will turn into Budenholzer, he just will be better at organizing the team). But he doesn’t do that. Instead, by having every player try to do many things, the team gets worse and Fizdale and the management learn more about what each player can do. So you get a worse team record and more learning about each player. If this is a deliberate strategy on the Knicks part, it’s actually kind of brilliant.
I honestly think Fizdale is trying to get them to develop a broad set of skills. I just don’t think it’s working, and I’m not sure it’s even a good approach to development. I don’t think it’ll necessarily be harmful though..
I read an article by Pelton where he talked about effects of playing time on PER, so I’m unconvinced by him. But if you say that others have shown no impact on improvement, that’s fine.
Maybe the hardest thing in the NBA to predict is which players of each almost uniformly-shitty rookie class will become stars. (Contrast that with asking, say, whether Tyson Chandler will develop a jumper this year, or if James Harden will be bad at scoring next year.) I was trying to point out that Knox is uniquely shitty among his contemporaries, and few in history, even of those given PT as teenagers, were as shitty as he currently is.
By no means should he be written off (unless someone were like, “Hey, will you give us the high-upside rookie Knox and some of your crusty detritus for Anthony Davis?”) but he has a real low floor to rise up from.
Louisville’s giving an early test to Duke right now. Zion’s been neutralized and Barrett is struggling to create off picks. Should be an interesting game.
Louisville and their defense always a challenge.
Zion hit a nice three
It’s looking more and more likely that the Lakers won’t make the playoffs. From 8 consecutive conference titles to the lottery, when he could be playing the Jimmy Butler role in Philly! Good job, Team LeBron!
Good Sivers-Celts game
It’s incredible that the mini-controversy over Brad Beal taking 5 steps on the way to the hoop is still going.
I spoke too soon on Zion being neutralized
27 points on 19 TSA, 12 rebounds, 3 steals, 1 blocks, 1 turnover
The rest of his team shot:
4-14
7-19
1-3
2-10
0-2
Crazy
My point is that doing this probably means the team wins fewer games, and that may be a deliberate side effect that Knick’s management wants.
Well, I learned a valuable lesson about turning games involving Zion off early.
Zion is straight ridiculous. He moves like Dwyane Wade but is 3 inches and 65 pounds bigger. And he’s probably stronger than Lebron. It must be so disheartening for the dudes trying to contest him around the rim.
I love Anthony Davis and it seems unlikely that peak Zion will be as good as peak AD, but potentially 5 years of cost-controlled Zion + 6 years age difference might give me significant pause (like maybe FULL STOP) to include him in any deal for AD if we are so lucky to have that choice.
I can see the Barkley comparisons but what’s crazy is that he’s probably 30 lbs bigger than Barkley was also. I mean it’s nuts.
Here’s a thought:
First let me unequivocally say that I do not expect Knox and DSJ to be as good as or better than KD & Kyrie, but I do think they can develop into really good players.
The presence of the aforementioned 2 may make KD & Kyrie less of a priority than a Kawhi and AD. They are young, talented, and cost controlled. I’m not saying that I wouldn’t love having KD & Kyrie, but developing the kids we have and a top pick isn’t a frightening alternative, considering we have talent to develop at the same positions KD & Kyrie play.
But..we should probably go hard after AD and Kawhi as long as it doesn’t cost us Mitch
What we’ve seen more much of this season, especially since Dec 1st, is a lot of confusion based on players taking on tasks they’re not used to. At first thought, that might seem bad, but it really isn’t. That’s because 2 key early steps in player development involve (1) identifying areas for growth and (2) helping the players themselves to learn how facilitate their own learning (having coaches helps, but they can’t be everywhere all the time). To do this, you have to trust that your players are willing to take a lead on this.
As an aside, part of what Fizdale is doing on both sides of the ball that don’t go far beyond simple concepts is to develop players’ BBIQ and instincts, so that down the road (ideally in the playoffs), they’re able to move and counter-move faster and better than their opponents. It’s probably the main reason the Knicks offense has as bad as it is. Fortunately, that lasts only for so long as you’re on the not-fun part of the learning curve.
I get that everyone wants to be on the fun side of the learning curve, but that has to be earned, which is what we’re seeing now.
I don’t think Fizdale is doing a terrible job. He just happens to be saddled with two of the worst players in the NBA. Since they’re the most recent 1st round draft picks in a rebuilding year, he has to play them.
Instead of being mad at people for not supporting Knox, today I will ask a more productive question.
Which of the following young players on our team so you areas most likely to have a good NBA career and why?
DSJ
Mudiay
Knox
Frank
Trier
Kornet
I excluded Mitch cause he’s the obvious answer. I excluded Mario and Vonleh cause they’re both free agents.
The interesting thing is that the “young” Lakers were starting to look good in the 2nd half of the season last year. After years, the draft rebuild was at least starting to make very slow progress even if they were still a lot of years away. Now they don’t have Randle or Zubac, they had a few strike outs in free agency and with trades, Lebron’s window will start closing soon, and it all feels less optimistic.
Are we talking “intrinsic value” as a basketball player or are we talking about the perception of the media and fans. They are unlikely to be equal.
Knox and DSJ are the most likely to generate enthusiasm among fans and media because they are scorers that can make highlight plays. Frank is the most likely to actually contribute to winning.
Kornet, hands down. He’s already an outstanding shooter (.597 TS% on 18.3 USG%) and he’s 7’1″ — basically what I wished Porzingis would be. He seems competent enough on defense and he’s real tall. He’s the perfect size to play stretch 4 and gives a Mitch-type center plenty of room to operate in the paint.
I’d probably pick Trier next, but his “regression” has been catastrophic. Compared to Frank and Knox, his scoring is Hardenesque, though.
Mudiay should be in the CBA.
As part of the deal it becomes necessary to stop insisting he aggressively attack the rim and create shots off the dribble. He’s not good at that at this stage in his development.
What we’ve been doing with Frank is a less extreme version of asking Robinson to stand on the perimeter and shoot long 3s all day like KP and then complain that his efficiency isn’t up to par.
Like Robinson, Frank has a LIMITED offensive skill set at this point. But Robinson is very good at the one thing he can do on offense. Frank is not. Frank is active, can make plays, keeps the ball moving etc.. but he can’t shoot very well. If he adds a consistent 3 and we limit his usage to the things he CAN DO, he’ll be fine on offense. He’s a ROLE player. But he can be a very valuable role player because he is an impact defender that makes plays when he focuses his energy on it as we saw in the last handful of games when Fizdale finally told him to “just be Frank”.
This is a good question and much better contribution to discussion than haranguing people for not loving the guy with the 47% TS!
I’d probably rank them:
Kornet
DSJ
Trier
Knox
Mudiay
Frank
Kornet is literally already good so as long as major regression isn’t coming so he’s first by default.
DSJ has shown the most growth of all of the guys who have been in the league multiple years and is still very young. Long way to go, but the skillset is there.
Trier is currently better than DSJ, but is older and has a game that lends itself to a lower ceiling.
Knox is terrible and will probably always be bad-to-terrible, but there’s a small chance he can become a productive 3PT bomber.
Mudiay is currently better than Knox, but is significantly older and still very bad.
Frank Ntilikina, like 99.9999%+ of the world, is not a NBA player.
Interesting piece on DSJ in the Athletic. It’s easy to forget how immature these guys are – they’re children in many regards.
It’s good that he’s working with Steph’s shooting coach. Improving at both lines (ft, 3pt) would raise his stock a ton, and he should be able to do it.
He’s never going to be the kind of passer Doncic is, but he will keep learning where to put the ball after basic cuts and picks.
If we luck into the top pick, I could see him becoming a part of a young core with Zion and Mitch. Then a guy like Durant would just be gravy – a coach on the floor.
The dream looks a lot different if we don’t get Zion, though. Ja is clearly the #2 guy imo and if we pick 2nd, you kinda have to move DSJ. After that, I think we raffle off #3 to the highest bidder bc Barrett scares the crap out of me. Maybe you can get something like the Doncic deal for him, though I doubt it.
I also have zero faith in Knox and would love to package him for something before the rest of the league catches on, but that won’t happen either. I guess best case scenario is that Durant comes in and Knox plays behind him as a sort of understudy.
I don’t have a lot of hope left for Frank either, but at least he can be a bench defender until we are forced to move him sometime before his next contract.
I’ll try to make this easier. It’s not just gut.
When Kanter joined the Knicks, virtually every boxscore models said he was an all-star or borderline all-star player that added a lot of wins. Some people here were very enthusiastic when we got him based on those stats.
At the time I was very skeptical because I had seen him play defense, seen teams target him, saw that his on/off stats were generally terrible, and seen other players that also scored a lot off offensive rebounds not have the real on court impact that the models suggested.
I knew the models were broken in his case.
For me it wasn’t necessary to create a better model or show via data exactly how good he was. I’m not paid to do that. I’m a fan. But I knew the model was not accurately reflecting his production.
There are patterns and profiles to the flaws in the boxscore models that become more apparent when you compare what they say to what is actually happening in the real world on the court. They all underrate some things and overrate others.
The extreme ones stand out.
All I am saying is that Frank’s profile is the type that tends to get undervalued. My observations and the on court results also suggest he is better than he looks based on those models. He’s still a net “negative” player, But even though I can’t give you an exact “number” I don’t think the path to positive is nearly as far or difficult as people think.
Translation: Phil Jackson drafted Frank Ntilikina so I will twist myself into whatever pretzel is necessary to claim that Frank Ntilikina is a good player
I agree so much. I’m a little torn between Vonleh and Kornet, but I would love to see the Smith/Trier/Dotson/Kornet/Mitch lineup. I think Smith is a terrible defender, and Trier is meh, but the combo of defense and efficiency from all five would be excellent. And Frank/Dot/Vonleh/Kornet/Mitch would never score a point, but maybe the opposing team wouldn’t either.
But Trier should play with Mitch at all times for dunking purposes.
Bullshit. He had never posted a positive BPM until coming to the Knicks. And yes, he was good at offense for some of those years, and he was unquestionably a good offensive rebounder, if not the best in the league per-minute.
You can look for yourself instead of just making shit up!
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kanteen01.html
WS48 and WP48 had him rated well because he scored efficiently and grabbed a ton of ORB, but yes, the team defensive adjustments probably did not account for his wretched defense. But again, look at the BPM/RPM/RAPM/PIPM numbers from those years and you will stand wholly corrected.
In his best season pre-NYK, VORP had him worth a whopping 0.8 wins against replacement. And it’s no surprise that at age 25 and 26, he put up the best numbers of his career.
I agree, the path for Frank is straightforward:
-Become an elite 3PT shooter by sheer force of will. Being Curry-esque isn’t enough as we determined yesterday, so we’ll need to aim for something like prime Steve Kerr but on much more volume. Shouldn’t be too hard.
-Become a good playmaker out of nowhere despite, in your own plan, punting on becoming any kind of penetration threat. It’s difficult to think of any above average playmakers who are a total non-threat to score on the drive, but hey, someone’s gotta be the first!
-Get his defense to the point where it’s commensurate with the idea some people currently have in their heads. This will likely have to involve more or less doubling his STL%. I don’t know how many players have done this historically but I see no reason why my boy Frankie can’t be the first. This will also be done by sheer force of will.
It’s amazing that people don’t see how simple this is. It’s similar to how some morons think “get those guys into at least a 500% season so we could get some free space to rebuild” wasn’t a good, or even coherent, team building strategy. Use your heads, people!
Kornet-in too few minutes-has been the 2nd or 3rd best player on the team this year, so you’d have to bet on the guy who has already been a productive NBA player over a bunch of prospects who have largely sucked. After that I’d probably take DSJ, who is at least acceptably bad for a young PG. I don’t know if he’s likely to have a good NBA (I’m setting a low bar for good-like league average productivity) career, but I think he has a shot.
Asking a lottery-pick guard/wing to do one of the most basic and important tasks in basketball is too much. Really gotta step it back and tell him to work on his ball handling and shooting. While in the NBA. While on a guaranteed 4-year contract. While having cost a lottery pick. While there are countless players out there who can dribble and shoot but didn’t happen to be anointed by a guy wearing a hat with a symmetrical roman numeral on it that helps him remember in the mirror how many titles Jordan, Pippen, Horry, Kobe, Odom and Pau won for him.
To me both MitchRob and Kornet are the unqualified best of our young class both talent-wise AND b/c they are the only ones smart enough to self-impose limits on what they try to do. They’re building confidence in smaller skill sets. Good for them.
All the other guys (Trier, DSJ, Mudiay, Knox, even fucking Hezonja) are just taking turns playing playground MVP for Coach Fiz who is blatantly encouraging it.
I have some memory (or hallucination if I’m mistaken) of Fizdale quoted as saying (paraphrase) that he’s always looking for That Guy who can take control of the game down the stretch. He should be doing the exact opposite, because That Guy is only coming here via the draft or free agency … if at all.
Sadly, Fizdale ends up pretending to befriend these kids, which embellishes his rep as a “player’s coach.” They all say they absolutely LOVE his “confidence” in them to be That Guy, but it’s leading them to performances that may land them out of the NBA.
By now I just wonder if some of these kids might be asking, “Yeah thanks for thinking of me to take the last shot, coach, but can you maybe teach us how to run the pick and roll or set a screen. I’m only nineteen.”
The Sixers are so freaking bad at the end of games. You saw it last night and all through last years playoff series with Boston.
And Horford seems to frustrate Embiid. If they meet again in this year’s playoffs, I wouldn’t count on the Sixers beating the C’s (unfortunately)
You already did.
Kornet is currently an actually good player so hopefully someone is paying attention and he sticks even if we have to waive his hold. Trier probably has a moderate NBA career in him. DSJ might end up being really good if he gets his turnovers under control.
There’s a story out today that Perry asked the Kings for Bagley in a Porzingis trade. That’s worrying. Bags is another all-offense, black hole type of player who is unlikely to be a Top 2 player on a good team. WHy does Perry like these guys so much?
@129 good post, KB App. I particularly liked this bit:
Fiz wants to be graded on development but he equates development with making someone aggressive and confident. Setting a screen is a good example. I would be positive about him as a coach if we finished the year with 14 wins but I saw every kid on the team setting solid screens and effectively switching on D. Why not spend a lost year focusing on fundamentals? That’s what mark jackson did with his kids at golden state before they started winning.
Btw just saw the box score from Pelicans magic. Jeez. Talk about mailing it in. 3 points for AD and they got blown out at home by the Magic.
WHERE ARE THE RUFF RYDAHS?
I dunno, Bagley was supposed to be the worst defensive player in the history of the world coming out of Duke but he has held his own. He gets a block and a half per 36 and he’s a tenacious defensive rebounder, and he’s in his age 19 season. He has not been as bad on defense as advertised. He actually looks like a pretty good prospect to me.
Put up a fresh thread on Mitch.
Anyone else aware that Jenkins is turning 28 next month? I like his shooting, his numbers are off the charts, and if we end up with a top FA or Zion, he’s a guy we should be signing next year if just to shoot for 10 minutes a night as your 8th player.
Guys, David Fizdale isn’t doing anything wrong when it comes to the development of the young players on this team. Almost all of Dennis Smith Jr’s offense is coming out of pick and roll sets, and he’s learning on the job how to properly navigate those situations. Kevin Knox gets the ball on 3 point kick outs or he’ll bring it up the floor. He’s learning how to operate out of the triple threat and how to take advantage of catch and shoot situations. Mitchell Robinson and Luke Kornet are catch and finish players, and Fizdale doesn’t have them trying to post up. Last year Luke Kornet didn’t side step defenders, but now he does it to create open opportunities for himself. Mitch Rob isn’t fouling as much as he did in the beginning of the season.
I guess my point is you can’t give Fizdale shit for the way our guard/wing prospects are developing and not give him credit for the way our front court guys (Vonleh, Robinson, and Kornet) are coming around. We simply drafted/scouted better on front court guys than we did on back court guys.
@133 — Absolutely agree. Fiz has the excuse that they’re all kids. Teach them.
Instead, I feel like we’re watching every single one of our guys revert to being the “best” kid on their high school team.
As better posters here have mentioned, the sample size is so small for teenagers in the NBA. Maybe the numbers will ultimately show most kids would benefit from learning the game in college to gain skills/confidence (if not $) — with exceptions being the most obvious talents like Moses Malone … Zion (maybe?).
@135, Bagley was universally hated here because he wasn’t Luka Doncic and played on a team where Wendell Carter Jr was under-hyped. The reality on Bagley is that Duke brought a retired number out of the rafters to recruit him, and then he proceeded to be the first guy since Tim Duncan to lead the ACC in points, rebounds, and FG% as an 18 year old. Marvin Bagley was always a phenomenal prospect, it just didn’t help his case that he got drafted ahead of Luka Doncic by the KANGZ.