Knicks Morning News (2018.01.05)

Well, considering KP had a .498 ts% in December and has a .398 mark in this first two games in January, maybe Dion Waiters or Michael Carter-Williams will too.

melo has finally gotten it. He’s limiting the isos and mostly shooting open 3’s. It took him 13 years, but he may finally be in the process of understanding team ball. I said it in an earlier post, but I think the loss to the Knicks demoralized him so much that something clicked in his head.
Plus there’s been some regression to the mean with Westbrook and PG.
They’re still not getting past the second round, but at least they’re not a mess anymore.

My current theory: Perry is leading a stealth tank and simultaneously trying to showcase the vets. Bringing up Burke will hurt the stealth tank. Once the vets are dealt or the trade deadline passes, whichever comes first, the overt tank will kick in. At that point, the kids will be playing, the vets that are left will be getting 0-15 mins a night, and KP will be shutdown with a bad something.

@6 – i agree with almost all of that except i think that they started off better than expected and hesitant to dismantle a potential playoff team… if they collapse this month i’m sure we’ll see some deals….

if we were stealth tanking we wouldn’t have signed hardaway

Trey Burke can stay in the D League forever if it means we have a better chance of uniting Trae Young and Frank Ntilikina.

Maybe I’m late to this party but does anyone else want to put the Wizards loss 90% on Hornacek and his need to play Jarrett Jack? Jack’s been better than expected (not that hard to do when your expectation is that he should be retired) but did anyone bring up how terribly amazingly stupendously awful he was trying to guard John Wall? Here are the Wall’s stats:

With Jack on-court: 25.7 minutes, 9/15 from the floor (including 7/8 at the rim), 8 FTA, 3 rebounds, 8 assists, 1 turnover

With Jack off-court (ie. with Frank guarding him): 8.6 minutes, 0/3 from the floor, 1 FTA, zero rebounds, 1 assist, 2 turnovers

WTF would you leave John Wall against Jarrett Jack for more than 5 minutes when it was so obvious a the start of the 3rd that Wall was just hunting Jack and taking him to rack over and over?

Burke is not up because Jack is playing. The Knicks have to cut someone loose to let him play. Sessions is the likely candidate to go. I would much rather go with the kids at this point. If Burke and Ntilikina both develop, maybe their the point guard tandem of this team’s future?

The Knicks are performing exactly the way I thought it would. If they win 4 games in January it’ll be a miracle. This is the killer stretch and has not started well. KP needs to work through his fatigue. THJr will help but maybe KP needs to take one game off every 5 games to stay sharp.

I predicted us to win between 7-9 games this month and these two losses don’t change my prediction. It was the Spurs and the Wizards on a back to back. We had a shot at the Spurs but the Wizards on the road on the 2nd half of a back to back, of course we lost that game. Now we have 9 winnable games in a row with 6 games against non playoff teams. This stretch is a good test. If we win between 5-7 games we’ll be fine. If we don’t then hope is pretty lost.

@14

I agree 100%.

As soon as Hardaway is back and gets a couple of games under his belt Frank should be the starting PG. He’s not enough of a threat on offense now. It might put even more pressure on KP. But once we have our #2 option in the lineup, Frank should start.

I also think it was crazy to not have Noah active against Gortat. Our Cs turned Gortat into an all-star on offense.

This stretch is a good test. If we win between 5-7 games we’ll be fine. If we don’t then hope is pretty lost.

No hope at all. Here’s an optimistic view of how I see January playing out:

@ Mia – loss
@ Dal – loss
Chi – win
@ Min – loss
NOP – crushing loss
@ Brk – loss (3rd game in 4 nights, 2nd of a back-to-back)
@ Mem – loss
@ Uta – loss
@ Lal – loss
@ GSW – loss
@ Den – loss
@ Phy – loss
Brk – win
@ Bos – loss

This team goes as KP goes. If KP starts shooting well we’ll be competitive in January. We’ll probably even win a few games that look tough if Hardaway comes back and plays well. If KP continues his slump and Hardaway is out for most of January or comes back on a minutes restriction and playing subpar, we’ll be going into stealth tank soon after the end of January.

I think the Knicks and the Heat are very similar teams and I have no idea who’ll win, probably Miami since it’s a road game.

The fact that Hornacek keeps playing Jack so many minutes is just a sign of desperation. He understands he wasn’t hired by this front office and that if the Knicks show no signs of improvement he’ll get fired when the season ends, it’s just as simple as that. It’s the same reason he keeps starting Lance. I’m completely done with him and I’ll cherish the day he gets fired.

Lance should really not be playing anymore unless we’re tanking. He and Ron are the same player — all hustle, no production. Lance’s ability to play 20+ minutes and post almost no counting stats is actually impressive.

Ron Baker is a perfectly cromulent NBA guard. Lance Thomas is a replacement level player.

if you’re relying on Perry in particular to be the tanker in chief you’re barking up the wrong tree. Go listen to the last five minutes of that interview he did with bj Armstrong and rick bucher when he was between jobs post Orlando. unprompted he brings up how opposed he is to tanking and the putative taint of instilling a losing culture. he wasn’t even a team gm giving a pc answer to a question, he was just a guy offering his unsolicited take.

This is a case where “tank” has become synonymous with “the process”, as opposed to simply playing young players who need experience to develop. Perry was a GM candidate at the time, and no one (now) wants to hear their GM supporting another “process”.

I don’t want the Knicks to start Jack and Sessions in the backcourt so they start losing games. That’s the surest way to tank. I just want to see them use precious minutes on players who need them, like Hernangomez and Dotson. Or see them used on a player with high upside, like Burke. We will likely lose, but it’s not tanking, per se.

I have a question that I honestly can’t find an answer for:

If KP isn’t the type of alpha to build around, how do we get that player?

Personally, I don’t see an answer through the draft. In free agency, I see answers- but those answers are extreme long shots. I love Bagley, I love Doncic, and I think Porter is very good as well. But I’m not sure if they’re as good as KP, or if they will ever be. Bagley’s close though. I mean that kid is NIIIIICE. But should Perry consider trading KP for that 1st that will get him in a Knick jersey? IMO, this is a catch 22 in a serious way…

Hey maybe the team falling apart and KP falling off the cliff again means we can give him that extension for less than we would have before if he’d kept up the hot start and lead us to a low playoff seed. IE, the same way GS was able to get Curry for cheaper on his first post rookie contract.

I say we gotta stop worrying about labels like is KP a legit number one option superstar you build around. And we gotta stop thinking we can only build a legit contender or else what’s the point.

Manage the team well. Draft well. Don’t overpay for free agents. Make smart trades. Have a good coach. Develop young players. Build a team that can win 45 to 55 games every year and get to the second round of the playoffs consistently. After that, so much of it is luck and timing.

We know KP is a good two way player and a unique one at that. We know when he’s on he can lead a team to wins. We’ve got to be patient with this. To me, suggesting we trade KP is a panic move. Its similar to wanting to overpay for a veteran free agent to “win now.” Its a panic move. We need to not make panic moves. The team is actually about where we thought they would be this year. Its only because we had some early season success that people’s expectations have changed and people are more frustrated now with the losses.

I don’t want the Knicks to start Jack and Sessions in the backcourt so they start losing games. That’s the surest way to tank. I just want to see them use precious minutes on players who need them, like Hernangomez and Dotson. Or see them used on a player with high upside, like Burke. We will likely lose, but it’s not tanking, per se.

Here’s the problems with that scenario.

1. O’Quinn and Kanter are in their option year. If you bench them in favor of younger “inferior” players they are going to go ballistic. Their agent is also going to go ballistic. Their career and future paydays are on the line.

2. Any other veterans that feel they are getting less than their deserved minutes are going to get pissed off and demand a trade.

Things like that create the kind of poisoned locker room environment we are trying to avoid. They also get noticed by other players around the league. They impact your ability to attract talent later. That’s typically why the “youth movement” doesn’t occur until late in the season when the team is totally out of it and the games are meaningless. At that point all the veterans are willing to sit for the benefit of the team even if they are the better player.

Of course, you can try to trade all your veterans. But that has downsides in terms of developing the young players and doesn’t make sense unless you can actually win the trade and move in a positive direction.

Until this season is dead and buried:

Frank will start when he has earned the right.
Willy will get more minutes when they trade O’Quinn or he wins the job from him.
Dotson will get more minutes when he has proven he deserves it in practice or they trade Lee

Frank will start when he has earned the right.

Well Jack has a TS% of .474 and Frank’s is .438. Both horrid, but at least Frank actually attempts to guard his man.

I really don’t get the downside of starting Frank at this point.

@35, that is a good answer and explanation.