Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Monday, September 16, 2019

Post Game: Grizzlies beat Knicks, 96-84

Potential Links

  • [msn.com] Grizzlies 96, Knicks 84: Scenes from the dawn of the Dennis Smith Era
  • [lmtonline.com] Grizzlies-Knicks, Box
  • Full BoxScore:
    http://www.nba.com/games/20190203/MEMNYK#/boxscore

    Score by Period:

    Team 1 2 3 4 TOTAL
    Grizzlies 19 23 32 22 96
    Knicks 22 19 21 22 84

    Four Factors

    TEAM eFG TOR ORB FTR
    MEM 0.457 0.067 0.205 0.143
    NYK 0.466 0.163 0.134 0.220

    Simple Box Score

    Name min pts fga 3pm ftm or Reb ast stl to blk pf +/-
    Caboclo, Bruno 16:54 0 4 0 0 1 2 1 1 1 0 4 8
    Jackson Jr., Jaren 25:44 16 11 1 5 5 7 2 0 0 0 5 18
    Gasol, Marc 31:43 24 19 1 1 2 9 5 1 1 0 2 24
    Conley, Mike 34:07 25 17 2 5 1 8 7 3 1 1 0 25
    Holiday, Justin 36:59 19 16 5 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 1 17
    Green, JaMychal 9:27 0 2 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 -7
    Mack, Shelvin 25:05 2 8 0 0 0 2 4 2 0 1 3 -5
    Carter, Jevon 10:30 0 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 0 0 -12
    Rabb, Ivan 13:37 5 6 0 1 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 -3
    Noah, Joakim 16:01 4 4 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 1 3 -10
    Washburn, Julian 19:53 1 1 0 1 0 5 1 1 0 0 1 5
    Washburn, Julian 19:53 1 1 0 1 0 5 1 1 0 0 1 5
    Watanabe, Yuta 0:00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Grizzlies 240:00 96 91 9 13 10 49 25 8 7 3 20 12
    Name min pts fga 3pm ftm or Reb ast stl to blk pf +/-
    Knox, Kevin 35:03 17 18 3 4 1 2 0 1 2 0 3 -13
    Vonleh, Noah 24:15 9 5 1 2 1 6 2 0 1 0 1 -12
    Jordan, DeAndre 29:28 12 4 0 6 1 12 2 1 1 1 1 -13
    Dotson, Damyean 19:33 5 7 1 0 0 3 2 0 1 0 1 -23
    Smith Jr., Dennis 25:30 8 9 0 2 0 3 6 1 2 1 3 -14
    Allen, Kadeem 20:25 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 1 1 2 3
    Kornet, Luke 20:17 11 9 3 0 1 4 1 0 0 3 1 -3
    Matthews, Wesley 28:27 5 8 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 1 11
    Hezonja, Mario 22:00 14 8 2 2 2 8 1 1 2 0 1 4
    Trier, Allonzo 15:02 3 3 1 0 0 4 1 0 4 0 2 0
    Hicks, Isaiah 0:00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Kanter, Enes 0:00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Thomas, Lance 0:00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Knicks 240:00 84 73 12 16 6 45 20 4 16 6 16 -12
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    209 comments on “Post Game: Grizzlies beat Knicks, 96-84

    1. Grocer

      Didn’t get to watch, gonna scope the replay later.

      the Mavs picks, which let’s be honest, how good will the Mavs be? Even after the trade, do the look better than Sacto even? They are still going to be bottom dwellers in a stacked West, even with Doncic improving.

      I can’t get the trade machine to work today, and I don’t know who’s holding other people’s picks, but I think this is probably as good a return as it gets. Who else is in the position where future picks might be worth something, has a young player to send back, and has expirings? Maybe Atlanta parts with Collins, but I kinda of doubt it. There’s nobody else in the east with a young player to send back who’s picks might be good. Maybe Memphis parts with JJJ but I think they want to hold onto picks. The other options are already playoff bound, the picks would be pretty bad. This might have been the best deal out there.

    2. Grandmaster Tank and the Furious Fiz

      Obviously, we will need a month to really look at Wesley Matthews and DSJ. I believe in building through the draft, which requires patience, which means they get more than a sleepy afternoon on the move to prove themselves.

      But the greatest fear I have would be the “Chris Childs” problem — you want to trade for people who play well in 82 games all around the league and not on their one or two visits per year in MSG. As I recall, Chris Childs looked great visiting New York. Once on the team, he was a reasonable backup PG but the weakest link on the backup squad that included Marcus Camby, Lattrell Sprewell, and others.

      If we lost KP but got modest talent in return, those two 1st Round picks won’t cut it. We will still need a Zion plus a Ja Morant, because we have too many “pretty good” point guards.

    3. Jack Bauer

      Watching the Boston v OKC game now. I’d take Kyrie on the Knicks- warts, flat earth conspiracy, and all. He would be by far the best point guard on the Knicks since maybe Clyde. He definitely comes with risks but it would be fun to watch great point guard play at the Garden for once. I do think he passes the ball some and makes plays for the other guys. Clutch when it counts too, you need a guy like that on your squad to win the close games down the stretch.

      I’d also take Rubio as a consolation, always liked his game which has really blossomed in Utah.

      Terry Rozier reminds me a little of Toney Douglas……if Toney Douglas could actually play.

    4. Hubert

      Jordan is going to make some team very happy if the Knicks waive him. I just don’t see a contender with enough expiring deals for a possible trade.

      Sacramento. They need a backup PG, too. Mudiay and Jordan or Kanter for Randolph, McLemore, Koufas gives them two bench pieces for non rotation players. That should net us something.

    5. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      the Mavs picks, which let’s be honest, how good will the Mavs be? Even after the trade, do the look better than Sacto even? They are still going to be bottom dwellers in a stacked West, even with Doncic improving.

      Completely depends on Porzingis’ return. Doncic is for real, for real. His 3.9 BPM ranks 14th of 39 of players who have played >1500 minutes. For reference, Kevin Durant is sitting at 4.4.

      An update– here is the list of rookies who put up 3.5 BPM in >1500, similar to a list I posted a month ago.

      Jordan
      Robinson
      Paul
      Sabonis
      Magic
      Duncan
      Webber
      Bird
      Jokic
      Simmons
      Kawhi
      Doncic
      Penny
      AK47
      Shaq
      Pierce
      Bowie

      Decent company, no? And Doncic is the only teenager of the bunch.

      The guy is going to be a 6’7″ James Harden in a couple years. It is entirely upon the Mavs to give him the #2 and #3 stars to get deep in the playoffs, but there is a zero-percent chance they are a lottery team if they manage to simply put a few average players around him. He’s going to transform that franchise to instant contender like LeBron did the Cavs and Durant did the Sonics/Thunder.

    6. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      because we have too many “pretty good” point guards.

      Are we talking about the 2019 Knicks right now? I don’t see a single “pretty good” guard on the whole roster.

    7. Early Bird

      Would people take Deandre Jordan and Wes over THJr & KP? If so, we may end up with a lottery pick next year.

    8. geo

      looking at the top of the upcoming free agent class (plus AD) – they’re all flawed dogs…

      just about everyone one of them (except for KD and klay) torched their team to try to control their career…

      a bunch of them come with some serious health/availability concerns…

      some just won’t be good personality/locker room fits here…

      point being, more and more I’m hoping to get lucky in the draft, and pick up players like: rubio, teague, middleton, tobias…

      I don’t know – need to see who’s available this summer…

      I would kind of be okay with KD, but, I think it would be a mistake to wipe our available roster money on just two players…

      that could mean another year of tanking, or, possibly with a couple of “good” players and some growth from our young players we can see a .500 squad as early as next year…

    9. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      Porzingis and Doncic theoretically sounds great, but Porzingis’ health and ridiculous contract is going to put a cap on how good Dallas can be long term. I don’t believe that Kristaps Porzingis’ body is going to stay healthy long term. Having Doncic is going to make it that much easier for him, but at the end of the day they’re going to need him to be twice as healthy and twice as productive as he’s been so far for that deal to work out.

      The Mavs made a terrible mistake.

    10. wetbandit

      Completely depends on Porzingis’ return. Doncic is for real, for real. His 3.9 BPM ranks 14th of 39 of players who have played >1500 minutes.

      I’m not as sure. Porzingis has had average stats, and hasn’t shown anything great so far, even though he has the ‘upside.’ I do think he’ll get better, but not much. Doncic is for real, foreal.

      But they are capped out this summer, and I’m not buying that KP isn’t taking the best contract he can, so they will have 20-30M in 2020 for the next season, when we take their pick. It really depends on who they surround Doncic with, and whether they gambled too much on KP.

      I’m not so sure they’re playoff lock in the next 2-3 yrs.

    11. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      The Mavs made a terrible mistake.

      And this is probably the only Knicks website on earth where you can write this, be correct, and have a good number of posters back you up on it. God bless the KB.

    12. Owen

      Yeah, I agree what Dallas did is puzzling. With Doncic in hand I would have gone for someone with a much higher floor than KP. Seems a senseless risk. But I suppose they see him having real superstar capability and having those two locked down will allow them a lot of room to build a contender, as opposed to picking up a supermax Guy.

      And Grocer, John Collins is also the guy I had been thinking about that I would have been happier getting back than the Dallas package. Don’t know if they do it but he is in that sweet spot of being young and underrated. I think if the Hawks had kept Doncic it could have been a possibility.

    13. alsep73

      Jesus Rodriguez:

      Per source #Knicks came close to trading Lee and Frank to #Magic before agreeing to send include Lee in the KP deal. Frank is still being shopped.

      Ross was the name part of those talks. The injury to Frank and the KP concerns had Knicks and Magic move in a different direction for now.

    14. rama got that Fizdale Magic

      For the Knicks, the trade reeks of competency. It was a real blow emotionally, as I do believe KP is underrated on the blog, and I wanted to see him come back healthy and strong, but his injury issues (and stamina) are reason enough to feel like it was a smart move.

      I also think it was a good play by Dallas. The risk is very high…but if KP stays healthy (Big If), they got a game-changer on D to go with their game-changer on O. They dumped a poor player in Smith who didn’t fit well with Luka, two players they won’t re-sign, and two picks that are not likely to be good unless KP gets hurt.

      Obviously, KP gets hurt and they are doomed. But if not, they have a good team soon as next year, and Cuban has been able to spin that into more several times.

    15. geo

      yeah, the mavs definitely do need to get this right, if not – that’s a whole lot of “dead” salary dragging them down…throughout their roster…

      with their current assets it’ll be difficult for them to have much more than a single first round pick in the next four years…

    16. geo

      so jesus sez…

      bye frank…kevin, keep a bag packed…

      I like this kind of gm’ing…

      can’t wait to see what our roster will look like after the trade deadline…

    17. bockadoo

      Cuban made this trade with his heart, not his head. Like the guy who marries his second wife because she reminds him of his first. It will be “cool” to have the next Dirk and they’ll sell a lot of tickets but the good times won’t last long. KP is already injury prone at age 23 and he’s 7’3”. The odds are not in his/their favor. I don’t think we could have gotten a better offer. Perry was right to jump on this deal.

    18. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      They’re looking at paying KP, Tim Hardaway, and Harrison Barnes over $65M next year. I wish we could have gotten their 2020 unprotected pick

    19. Brian Cronin

      The biggest thing for Dallas would be to somehow hit the top five this year, as it would push back the pick to the Knicks until 2022 at the earliest. I imagine that they’ll be tanking like crazy.

    20. bidiong

      I don’t want them to trade Frank. I don’t care that he’s been bad. I want him to have the opportunity to make a turnaround!

    21. d-mar

      Maybe this is a good day to play the “Which franchise would you trade places with right now?

      I would say Warriors, Bucks, Nuggets, maybe Celtics.

      Kind of interesting to think about, a few weeks ago that list would have been way longer.

    22. geo

      I hear ya…but, it’s a business, and, frank is bad for business cuz frank is bad at basketball…

      I like him too…blame the numbers…

    23. thenoblefacehumper

      Trading Frank for two seconds would be a smaller scale version of the KP trade in that it would be widely panned but prooooobably represent value gained

    24. chrisconley

      @1, thank you!

      I don’t love the trade but I do like it. One of the biggest criticisms on here (which is the only place that criticisms matter imo, bc this site is one of the few places that understands KP’s true value) is that we should have at least gotten more given public perception of KP’s highly valued unicornity.

      From where? Who would like to spend 20 min and find a better deal? People suggested getting Bagley or Hield. Yeah right. 0% chance Sac takes back shitty salary, offers us 2 firsts, and parts with either of those two players for the risk of losing KP after he takes the QO (or best case to max his injury-prone ass). I also don’t think ATL does it with John Collins. In fact I think both of those teams laugh in Perry’s face if he suggests it.

      This is coming from someone who hates DSJ. Advanced stats show us that he’s replacement level at best. He’s super young and can improve blah blah blah. He’s always had a shitty attitude which was my concern pre-draft.

      I really think this is one of the best packages we could have gotten given the circumstances (doesn’t mean it’s great). Of course they did this with KD in mind. I think Perry or Mills or both literally said everything they do this year will be with KD as top priority. And we fucking dodge the KP max! Plus with the flattened lottery odds and Dallas being in the west, there is a non-zero probability the 2021 pick is a good pick. Imagine if KP goes down and misses a significant portion of that year! Totally in play.

      Listen to Nate Duncan’s pod on this if you haven’t.

    25. Z-man

      @21 we have lots of cap space and some extra draft picks, but we don’t have a single sure-fire star. I’d take Philly for sure, and I’d probably take Phoenix (I like Booker more than most) and oddly, I’d strongly consider Sacramento. Indiana is a tough call. Utah is interesting.

      But in terms of a tabula rasa for a GM, the Knicks is where it’s at.

    26. ClashFan

      @26
      So, someone finally answered the question I’ve asked a couple of times. In a DSJ and Mudiay backcourt, who eats the vaseline?

      I really hope the Knicks dump Mudiay and move Frank to the wing. Show some patience!

    27. chriskZIPCODE

      A friend from Europe asked me what I thought of the KP trade, I said, well it’s great that we got those pics. He said yeah, but you guys really don’t pick all that well.

    28. Bruno Almeida

      @26

      He really does remind me of Marbury… so athletic but he does not understand the game at a high level. At least he is willing to pass and the athletic skills are undeniable, but both statements were true speaking of Marbury as well.

      Now that he’s on board, let the kid play. If he ever learns to get to the line a lot and develops a bit of court vision there’s a chance he’s a plus player, it’s not impossible.

      Now, Matthews, as I’ve been saying, is a tank commander. I think people who thought he could be a problem for the tank really didn’t watch much of him this season, he’s done athletically and he plays like he’s desperate for a new deal next season. His shooting numbers aren’t overall terrible but his impact is very low, kinda like a new version of Courtney Lee.

    29. BigBlueAL

      The funny thing is Marbury had by far the best season of his career in his first full season as a Knick. He actually had an excellent season in 2004-5.

    30. Z-man

      Wes is washed, true. SJ, however, still looks great and might actually be better than he was because he’s not as vulnerable to Hack-a-Jordan. He’d be an outstanding 4th piece at something like 3 years/$40 mill.

    31. Grocer

      The biggest thing for Dallas would be to somehow hit the top five this year, as it would push back the pick to the Knicks until 2022 at the earliest. I imagine that they’ll be tanking like crazy.

      I wrote a whole thing and it got eaten by the internet grue. I’m too lazy to do it all again! Basically, yes, but this trade didn’t make them much worse in the short term, at least by BPM. Powell can cover for Jordan pretty dang well, Lee is probably better than Mathews at this point and Barea/Finney-Smith definitely are, THj is better on offense than DSj (though much worse on defense). It might be hard for them to gain much tank ground.

      Dallas keeping their pick this year is our worst case scenario. There’s a decent chance their cap situation plus the quality of the rest of the West make the 2021 pick fairly decent for us. All bets off in 2022.*

      *I guess the more picks the year one and done goes away the better, but that’s still conjecture and I do not love the idea of drafting kids outta HS.

    32. Bruno Almeida

      @31

      I think he has dropped off a lot on defense, specially in terms of effort, I watched some Dallas games where he looked like he didn’t even care to stop people driving to the rim, his blocks have been very underwhelming for the last 3 seasons. But yes, he’s still a wonderfully productive finisher inside and rebounder, those guys will always bring some positive value to the team.

    33. GoNyGoNyGo

      @14 My sentiments exactly. We “loved” KP because he showed legitimate talent and we’ve been starved for it. So far, he’s been a fringe all-star at best, when healthy. While it feels awful, if we can sign a true top-10 player and another all-star, with our cap space, it’s a real improvement. Add a couple of picks or maybe flip 2 firsts to move up in a draft, and it becomes icing. We got picks and cap space for a fringe all-star that is a real injury risk.

    34. djphan

      you don’t need to be a rocket scientist or be incredibly smart to be a good player in this league… if you’re getting to the basket and converting that’s almost enough to provide plus value on the court by itself…..

      smith can already do that as we see saw today…. yes there’s warts in his game…. but he is incredibly close to putting it all together…. the turnovers will almost certainly come down…. and then he’s a ftr spike and/or better shooting to really catapult him into a viable starter….

      dangelo russell’s career trajectory is a good analog… dogged by high turnovers and poor shooting early in his career.. and then the turnovers very gradually came down… the shooting very gradually improved… and with a spike in his assist numbers he is now an actual all star….

      i was very excited for nabbing smith… it’s not very often we get a decent prospect in a trade and he might turn out to be the best player in it…..

    35. Z-man

      Smith has excellent tools, jumps out of the gym and his shot isn’t broken. His upside is all about what is between the ears and in the chest,

    36. Totes McGoats as Totes McGoats

      I don’t know about you guys, but I REALLY wanna see a DSJ/Ntilikina/Knox/Vonleh/DJ starting lineup for the rest of the season. Hopefully Matthews gets traded so that Dotson and Trier can continue to get playing time. If Sacto is willing to throw in a pick, we should make that Kanter for ZBo trade right now.

      Question about DJ. What would it take to re-sign him? He’s an excellent fit on this roster.

    37. Bruno Almeida

      I think DJ is not getting the same level of deal, there’s real decline in his performance in some areas and he’s already 30. I would say a 3 year, 45 million deal certainly gets it done, maybe something along the lines of 10 million a year, but that would only make sense if we do get Zion and or a real max player at least.

    38. alsep73

      What’s our Bird rights situation with DJ? And would people rather use the room exception on him or Vonleh if we achieve the impossible KD/Kyrie dream?

      Totes, I’m also very down for DSJ/Frank/Knox/Vonleh/DJ, though Kornet or Mitch would also be fine at the 5.

    39. Frank

      Managed to watch part of the game yesterday, and came away reasonably impressed with DSJ. Even without any actual practice with the team, he looked engaged on defense, even getting around picks etc (shocking for a Knicks PG!), and his athleticism is just so obvious. He also looks bigger than I expected somehow, although I guess he’s only 6’1.5″ without shoes. And it didn’t seem that he was too much a chucker or ball-hog (certainly no more so than Timmy), but obviously it was a very small sample I saw.

      I still am coming away from this last week with the idea that the Knicks did the right thing here, and for the right reasons. Although I’m sure it had maybe a little something to do with it, this doesn’t at all seem to be a Jeremy Lin situation, where it seemed some of the reason we didn’t match was related to Dolan thinking Lin was an ingrate i.e. didn’t know his “place”. On any number of levels, from risk management re: KP’s injuries and constant agitating, to getting more draft picks, to getting more financial flexibility, and to maximizing the potential ceiling, this move really seems like it was the right thing to do.

      All this belly-aching on Twitter from various writers about the Knicks not doing their due diligence really seems to be post-hoc damage/narrative control by opposing GMs (see: Boston). There is definitely a reason for opposing front offices to portray Perry as panicking or incompetent so that their pending FAs (see: Kyrie) might pause before signing with the Knicks this offseason. If these writers were really doing their jobs, the question isn’t “Did you know he was available?” but rather it is “would you have given 2 picks, 1 unprotected, and taken on two bad contracts, and given a lottery pick from 2 drafts ago to get KP?”. As Knicks Film School very eloquently explained, there…

    40. Zanzibar

      Why in the world would we want to re-sign Jordan to a contract when we have Mitch whose stats are way ahead of DJ at this stage of their careers? Speaking of Mitch, his being out sick for yesterday’s game is very worrisome. Is he about to be traded (Pels maybe and FO fretted another ankle injury? I hope they don’t trade Mitch. I said I’d rather they include KP in a Davis deal instead of Mitch.

      I hope we keep Mitch and Kornet. They give us a lot of flexibility. Mitch is PnR while Kornet is PnPop and both space the floor in different ways.

    41. Zanzibar

      Landing 3 of KD/AD/Kawhi/Kyrie would be what is known as a TRIPLE DIP REBUILD.

      Forget DSJ – he’s a lousy shooter off motion and that won’t improve much. He’s shooting 33% from 10-16 which is worse than even Frank. If anything Frank was showing some ability for a long time in hitting that shot off a pick. Defenders will just go under the pick against DSJ. DSJ’s ceiling is Felton.

      Sign Kyrie and KD this summer and then offer DSJ/Knox/2019 pick/Mavs #1 pick. That should be competitive with any Lakers offer and, who knows, maybe Kawhi is a Laker and they decide to keep their youngins. Of course, maybe they sign Kawhi and then offer them for Davis.

    42. Frank

      looks like I got cut off –
      the rest of the post was that there were only a few teams that could’ve potentially matched this haul, with Brooklyn being pretty unrealistic just given the geographical rivalry. Dallas was the perfect trade partner — a team with Luka/Dirk that could reasonably believe that KP would definitely re-sign, thereby increasing his value to them (he’d probably re-sign anywhere but then might agitate his way out of town after getting his $) and an owner that wants to be big-time but has struck out on FA after FA.

      Re: Dallas – I highly doubt they are going to tank from here out. Maxi Kleber is a really good player and can hold down the 5 position for them, they played better without DSJ than with DSJ this year, and Courtney Lee and even Timmy will contribute to winning there. They also have to sell KP to some extent, and going from one tanking situation to another is probably not what he and Janis want to see.

      From the Knicks’ perspective (as long as Dallas doesn’t jump us this year), it wouldn’t be so terrible if Dallas gave their pick to Atlanta next year instead of this year. 2022 is supposed to be that double draft with high schoolers allowed again, and might be a better year to have an extra unprotected pick both from a drafting perspective but also an asset perspective.

    43. Frank

      Yeah I really like Kornet. I imagine they will re-sign him to a long-term deal using EB rights after they do all their other FA work this summer. Still averaging 17 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.4 blocks per 36 with 59.5 TS on 18+% usage. He’s probably played himself into a room or taxpayer MLE-type deal and would be a good backup C behind Mitch longterm.

      (I guess the question is whether Mitch will be around if we sign KD/Kyrie – can’t imagine that those guys want to wait for Mitch to develop)

    44. Zanzibar

      I imagine they will re-sign him to a long-term deal using EB rights after they do all their other FA work this summer.

      Problem is he’s a RFA and some team might swoop in and make him an offer right away. That could be a problem if Davis is still available and Pels put Knicks and Lakers in a bidding war.

      (I guess the question is whether Mitch will be around if we sign KD/Kyrie – can’t imagine that those guys want to wait for Mitch to develop)

      I mean Mitch by every stat is already very productive. His role is limited and well-defined so I don’t think that would be much of an issue. If it is, use the room exception to bring in a vet center for a year.

      BTW speaking of centers, Knicks should have kept Noah (even lit) and we might have been able to include him in that Mav’s deal. Throw in Lance and I think the #’s work.

      One last item on centers: I think Kings should be interested in Jordan. They could test drive him for the rest of the year and if it’s a fit re-sign him for 10m/yr. Maybe we net a 2nd round pick and ensure that our regular deposits to the tank bank continue.

    45. Bruno Almeida

      @41

      We don’t have DJ’s bird rights, he signed a one year deal with Dallas so he doesn’t qualify.

      I wouldn’t be against bringing him back for another year or two as Mitch is not really ready to be the full time starter IF the Knicks intend to be competitive next season, which is contingent on getting Zion and or top free agents. If neither of those happens of course you just let Jordan walk.

      If someone offers a decent pick for him, even a decent 2nd, I would still take it, but there’s a chance that he could be a part of the next decent Knicks team.

    46. alsep73

      It’s funny that we originally viewed Kornet as a poor man’s KP substitute who gave a glimpse of what the offense could look like when Porzingis returned. But he seems to have some value beyond that.

    47. bobneptune

      Speaking of Mitch, his being out sick for yesterday’s game is very worrisome. Is he about to be traded (Pels maybe and FO fretted another ankle injury? I hope they don’t trade Mitch. I said I’d rather they include KP in a Davis deal instead of Mitch.

      This was the first thing I thought of when he was a late scratch yesterday. If he has to go in a trade for AD….. well…. bye, bye!

    48. Frank

      Problem is he’s a RFA and some team might swoop in and make him an offer right away. That could be a problem if Davis is still available and Pels put Knicks and Lakers in a bidding war.

      seems unlikely to me that anyone is swooping in for Kornet of all players — especially given he is restricted, I don’t imagine anyone will be tying up any significant cap space waiting on the Knicks to match or not- not with 40% of the league being FAs or something like that.

      So question for the group – if we somehow win the lottery and are also somehow able to land Kyrie and KD in free agency, would anyone here trade Zion and pretty much everyone else for AD (which is the only way the $ would work)? I guess you can tell I would much rather keep Zion.

      But what if we fall to, say, #4 in the draft. Would you guys trade whoever #4 is plus, say, Dallas’s unprotected 1st, + DSJ + Knox + Frank and whoever else to get AD? (I think I might say yes to that — I’m not really sold on Knox, DSJ will be superfluous and unhappy if we get Kyrie, and losing Frank is not that big a deal)

    49. Brian Cronin

      But what if we fall to, say, #4 in the draft. Would you guys trade whoever #4 is plus, say, Dallas’s unprotected 1st, + DSJ + Knox + Frank and whoever else to get AD? (I think I might say yes to that — I’m not really sold on Knox, DSJ will be superfluous and unhappy if we get Kyrie, and losing Frank is not that big a deal)

      Of course you do that deal. It’s a steal. I just doubt that New Orleans does that. I think they’re looking at the 2019 Draft as strictly a Zion or not Zion deal. Otherwise, they’re looking for young current NBA players with a realistic chance of being good plus picks. Which is why the “Godfather” offer is still Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown plus picks. Since Tatum could easily slot in as their next young star. Heck, with Okafor playing really well (and signed through next season for peanuts), you could actually put together an interesting (not good, but interesting) team with Holiday, Moore, Tatum, Mirotic and Okafor (provided Okafor continues his strong play).

      But sure, if New Orleans is cool with that deal, I’m definitely down with that deal.

    50. Brian Cronin

      And I agree that I am not even slightly concerned about a team swooping in on Luke Kornet. Maaaybe if he was a UFA, but not as an RFA.

    51. thenoblefacehumper

      I’m not even a top-10 KB capologist but I think the only “rights” we have on DAJ are 120% rights, and even those will be renounced on day 1 of free agency to open up the cap space (his hold is ~$27M).

      I highly doubt he’ll be back here next year, so ideally he won’t even be here a few days from now.

    52. Brian Cronin

      Yeah, I’m on the same wavelength in that I think (hope?) that this is all just a bluff to see if someone will trade picks for Matthews or Jordan before Thursday. If not, I would have to imagine that both of them will be bought out. But because of that, I would also have to imagine that the other NBA teams think the same thing and thus, no one will part with picks for them.

    53. ptmilo

      But because of that, I would also have to imagine that the other NBA teams think the same thing and thus, no one will part with picks for them.

      they may think this but they still have to compete with other teams. if you’re the kings and know your chances of landing him after being waived aren’t great, it can make sense to give something up for him.

      djphan, was that really you saying that dsj might be better than porzingis because getting to the rim is so valuable but you also would redraft zach collins ahead of fox?

    54. Brian Cronin

      True, the Kings would be the one team I could see maaaaybe doing it. The other ones, though, would all be confident that they could get Matthews and Jordan to pick them once they became free agents. Like if you’re Houston, no way do you trade anything for these guys.

    55. Brian Cronin

      You know which trade really mystified me? The Portland/Hood deal. Does Hood even improve Portland?

    56. Zanzibar

      And I agree that I am not even slightly concerned about a team swooping in on Luke Kornet. Maaaybe if he was a UFA, but not as an RFA.

      You don’t think some team would place a 6m offer sheet in front of him? Any team in the league that has cap or their MLE could do that. And if 2 of Kyrie/KD/Kawhi haven’t committed to the Knicks and are making the Melo tour matching Luke would take away the needed cap space. I suppose you could tell Kornet not to sign an offer sheet and we would give him up to X dollars using EB rights but he might be too smart to trust this FO.

      Just about everybody here was OK cutting Kornet to make room for Trier. The consensus here was he was a scrub. How many centers are there who hit 3’s at above 40%? But that’s not it – he shoots it fast so it’s tough to give him space and then close out on him like Wade did to Novak in the playoffs. It’s the modern NBA.

    57. thenoblefacehumper

      It’s tough to say what will happen with Kornet until the sample size gets bigger. I love the way he’s looked so far but you can’t discern much from a guy hitting 40/94 3PA. As of now I doubt we’d have much of an issue with him in RFA but if he gets to 1000+ minutes and is still looking like Novak it’s possible that becomes a headache. It’s still worth playing him though because we need to find out just as much as everyone else whether or not he’s an asset worth keeping/pursuing.

    58. ptmilo

      You know which trade really mystified me? The Portland/Hood deal. Does Hood even improve Portland?

      neil olshey is impossible to understand. one of his first moves as clippers gm was to trade an unprotected 1st and one year of baron davis’ contract for mo williams. the clippers were 21-37 at the time! it’s unlucky the pick won the lottery and ended up being kyrie but that clippers pick had a 28% of landing first. twice as good as any team this year.

      he also traded will barton plus a first (which became malik beasley) mid year for afflalo who was already washed, another crazy mid-year deal.

      he’s made some good moves too. the aminu contract was great and of course the nurkic trade has been a true homerun.

    59. bobneptune

      Reading some tea leaves and maybe a little wishcasting here but maybe something is up with NO….

      By league rules, Smith, Matthews and Jordan CANNOT be traded in combination with another player til after the deadline (2 months). Kanter, for some odd reason is still on the roster (why after acting like such a dick recently and glued to the bench). Robinson was ill yesterday. two trades:

      DSJr for Darius Miller

      Kanter (for cap purposes)
      Frank
      Knox
      MR
      choice of 2 picks: NY 2019 top 1 protected , NY 2020 or 21 , either of 2 Mav’s picks

    60. alsep73

      And I could buy the team’s interest in having Jordan mentor Mitch as more than a smokescreen. But I assume Wes and Kanter are gone after the deadline, one way or another.

    61. Ntilakilla

      That Berman article has all the stink of the Knicks front office leaking some kind of faux interest in Matthews to get his name out there before the deadline is through.

    62. Hubert

      I do agree that the Mavs made a mistake (the risk is too high). That doesn’t mean they’re going to be bad, though.

      Porzingis on a max here is different than Porzingis on a max there. Doncic (and to a lesser extent, Carlisle) makes all the difference.

      Let’s start with what we all know: KP is a wingman, not the man. Here he would have been paid to be the man and that would have made it much more difficult to find the real man. But when healthy he has the potential to be an outstanding #2, especially with a coaching staff that presumably won’t tolerate his terrible shot selection.

      In Dallas, they have a ridiculous value contract in Luka. So even if they max Porzingis, they’re still paying their two best players around $40mm. From a team building perspective, that’s an incredible advantage over the rest of the league. We’d have to pay KD and Kyrie $71mm, for instance.

      Next year will be step 1 for them. They’ll roll out a top 4 of KP, Luka, Hardaway, Barnes. The latter two will limit their ceiling. But after next year, all they have to do is stretch Hardaway and then they will only have ~$46mm in salary committed to Luka, KP, and the Hardaway penalty. That’s also the year we have their pick, too, so if KP does stay healthy we’re probably getting shitty picks.

      I do think Dallas made a mistake but the upside is very high if KP stays healthy.

    63. Brian Cronin

      Berman is actually reporting that Wesley Matthews is receiving trade interest, more so than Jordan.

      Oh, Matthews totally has more tradeability than Jordan. Jordan’s the better player, but the extra $4 million makes his deal harder to fit into teams’ cap space.

    64. thenoblefacehumper

      Matthews is definitely washed, but if you’re trading a single second rounder you could still do worse. Any team trading for him is basically asking him to stand in a corner for 10-15 minutes a night.

    65. Farfa

      Thing is, we could trade Matthews only to a team with an expiring contract that pretty much matches his contract.

      I don’t see many teams who really need Matthews right now and have that pre-requisite. Maybe Utah?

    66. Brian Cronin

      Thing is, we could trade Matthews only to a team with an expiring contract that pretty much matches his contract.

      I don’t see many teams who really need Matthews right now and have that pre-requisite. Maybe Utah?

      Agreed, which is why I bet most teams are just going to wait and see if they get bought out.

    67. Zanzibar

      DSJr for Darius Miller
      Kanter (for cap purposes)
      Frank
      Knox
      MR
      choice of 2 picks: NY 2019 top 1 protected , NY 2020 or 21 , either of 2 Mav’s picks

      You might think – and perhaps rightly so – that I should be institutionalized but I wouldn’t trade Mitch and I think Frank will end up a better player than DSJ and Knox. I would offer NO: Lance, Knox, DSJ, 2019 pick unprotected, the two Mav’s 1st round picks, and a Charlotte 2nd round pick. If we have to add Frank, then you do it.

      Mitch is a game changer. I wrote this a while ago but there’s never been a center in the history of the NBA as fast in general and as fast off his feet as Mitch. His shot blocking and vertical spacing are just too valuable.

      Regarding Frank, his on/off for the year is now +1.8 (+2.0 last year). I’ve noticed a change in him the last few games. He’s stepped it up on defense and on offense he’s making a decision and acting on it without hesitation. That’s an important step for him. I think his 3FG% will go up. I’d much rather have Frank than DSJ or Knox if we land two stars. I would include him in a Pels deal if that’s what it took but I’d hold him out to the end.

      DSJ is a lousy shooter off the dribble and a low IQ player with some personality issues. Is this the profile you want spearheading the offense in the future? Knox is more interesting. He’s young and didn’t start playing organized Bball until late. But he’s got a major awareness problem which manifests itself on both offense and defense. How is a former QB so damn dime deficient?

      So here’s what my target would be for next year:
      Frank/Mitch/Kornet/Trier/Dotson/Room Exception and 2 of KD/AD/Kyrie/Kawhi

    68. Brian Cronin

      Can you imagine a defensive front court of Mitch and AD? No one would be able to get a shot off!

    69. Frank

      veteran 3 and some D guy who has an expiring contract definitely has value around the league. Philly, Minnesota, Sacramento, etc would be reasonable destinations.

      DAJ may even have value — if he’s bought out he’s definitely going to Houston, so wouldn’t a team like, say, the Clippers benefit from trading Teodosic and Gortat for him? I’m not sure whether DAJ is persona non grata there, but it’s not a bad fit.

      Maybe Sac wants DAJ for Koufos + Zach Randolph. They have a ton of 2nd round picks, surely 1 of them could be sent this direction?

    70. Brian Cronin

      Veteran 3 and D guys definitely have value, but Matthews is making $18 million. That’s a hard contract to fit into anyone’s cap. Jordan is making even more.

    71. Farfa

      If we could get AD without sending them Mitch you just have to do that.

      Sadly, I don’t think Knox + Frank + Kanter + Trier + unprotected Dallas pick + 2019 Knicks 1st does the trick.

    72. Farfa

      Veteran 3 and D guys definitely have value, but Matthews is making $18 million. That’s a hard contract to fit into anyone’s cap. Jordan is making even more.

      And the only way we would take back a contract that doesn’t end in 2019 is if we could nab the 2019 Suns, Bulls or Hawks pick, which won’t happen like ever.

    73. Brian Cronin

      I think that does the trick if the pick is Zion, so that’s why the Knicks have to wait until the offseason (and technically until after Zion signs his contract, for cap purposes). But yes, otherwise, I don’t think New Orleans cares about just a lottery pick in 2019. Otherwise, they want somewhat proven young players.

      And then, of course, there’s the whole “Do you want to trade Zion for AD?”

    74. Farfa

      And then, of course, there’s the whole “Do you want to trade Zion for AD?”

      I don’t think I’d do it unless AD signs an extension. Otherwise give me Zion, a real max player (my preference would go to Kawhi but it’s near impossible, then KD, then Kyrie) and who knows what with the remaining cap (another star who wants to play in NYC for a winning team and shaves a bit of his price? A bad contract with a good pick attached?)

    75. wetbandit

      I wouldn’t trade Zion for AD, but it is a purely emotional (we tanked this whole season, lost KP in the process, have no young huge prospect I really love — ok, probably Mitch — and I don’t want to give up MY generational prospect for your generational piece who seems unhappy and may still go to LA)

      Ok, maybe not purely emotional, I wouldn’t want to take on AD and lose him and have absolutely nothing.

    76. bobneptune

      You might think – and perhaps rightly so – that I should be institutionalized but I wouldn’t trade Mitch and I think Frank will end up a better player than DSJ and Knox.

      I completely agree with you . Mitch is a baby who is playing incredibly well and the things that he is terrible at (free throw shooting and offense in general other than lobs can only get better and the things that he is good at (shot blocking/athleticism) can’t get bad for 8-10 years without catastrophic injury. He is pure upside with a base of a ws/48 =.170 player on a 4 year minimum contract.

      But AD might be the best player in the game for the next 6-8 years so I am going to have to gve something of substance to get him.

      Believe me I am not interested in moving him except in a package for a legit 2 way game changer…. he is too valuabe at his salary if he never gets any better and that is unimaginable.

    77. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      I know one thing for sure about Dallas, and it’s that they will be an excellent team in the month of November.

      The thing about Porzingis is that it’s not only that he has to overcome a devastating knee injury, but he has to overcome poor shot selection, stamina, and rebounding issues. If you think Porzingis’s shot chart is going to turn into Luke Kornet’s shot chart overnight, you’re kidding yourself. I see a lot of jargon about how Porzingis and Doncic will make a deadly screen and roll/pop combination, but that would mean Porzingis would have to set an actual screen and/or go to the Amar’e Stoudemire school of slipping screens.

      Doncic should make KP’s life much easier on offense, and Porzingis should cover a lot of Doncic’s defensive mistakes. The combination, in theory, has the potential to be the best one two punch in basketball. This could end up being a situation where Porzingis (with the medical staff, Doncic, and Carlisle) ends up reaching his sky high potential and doubles his availability and production, but it could also be a situation where Porzingis never plays more than 60 games in a season and uses the latter 30 games to depress his on court value. Doncic is so good that he should elevate them to being a contender so long as KP is healthy, but a 7’3” skinny guy with a reconstructed ACL isn’t a great bet to stay healthy.

    78. Hubert

      They’re looking at paying KP, Tim Hardaway, and Harrison Barnes over $65M next year. I wish we could have gotten their 2020 unprotected pick

      This is why I think Dallas is getting panned a little too much. We could have gotten swap rights on this year’s pick or next year’s. Those are both going to be great picks. But they held on to that.

      Instead they gave us an unprotected pick in the year after they have KP + Luka + $80 million in cap space. It’s never wise to assume your pick is going to be in second half of the draft, but unless Luka blows out his knee, that pick is going to be in the second half of the draft. KP can blow out his knee again and Luka might already be so good that he can carry a team to the playoffs alone.

      That pick is best used as a trade chip this summer before everyone knows that a draft pick from a Luka Doncic team is never going to be a great pick.

    79. DRed

      . Porzingis has had average stats, and hasn’t shown anything great so far, even though he has the ‘upside.’

      when he was 22 he led the NBA in blk% and hit almost 40% of the 3 point shots he took. Our elite player development system couldn’t keep him healthy or coach him out of his bad shot selection.

    80. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      Also, I’ve seen enough Zion to know I wouldn’t trade him for anybody. Zion is built like a tank and looks like a great bet to play 75+ games of high intensity, highly productive two way basketball. He’s a triple threat away from being an automatic bucket in the half court, and his transition exploits are well documented at this point. I know it’s hard to argue that Zion would be better than AD, but I do think Zion’s age 19-29 seasons will be more valuable than AD’s age 26-34 season.

      We don’t have Zion Williamson as yet, but if we win the lottery there’s no way I trade that ticket.

    81. TheOakmanCometh

      The Kings have 3 second round picks each in 2020 and 2021. It makes sense for them to give up one or two of them in a DeAndre for Z-Bo + Koufos trade.

    82. Brian Cronin

      I completely agree with you . Mitch is a baby who is playing incredibly well and the things that he is terrible at (free throw shooting and offense in general other than lobs can only get better and the things that he is good at (shot blocking/athleticism) can’t get bad for 8-10 years without catastrophic injury. He is pure upside with a base of a ws/48 =.170 player on a 4 year minimum contract.

      But AD might be the best player in the game for the next 6-8 years so I am going to have to gve something of substance to get him.

      Believe me I am not interested in moving him except in a package for a legit 2 way game changer…. he is too valuabe at his salary if he never gets any better and that is unimaginable.

      Yeah, I fucking LOVE Mitch, but come on, if they could get AD without trading Zion but with trading Mitch (like if the 2019 pick is not Zion), you gotta do it.

    83. TheOakmanCometh

      Yeah, I fucking LOVE Mitch, but come on, if they could get AD without trading Zion but with trading Mitch (like if the 2019 pick is not Zion), you gotta do it.

      Considering that AD is the 0.001% outcome for Mitch, yeah, you’d have to be insane not to include him in an AD trade.

    84. Brian Cronin

      when he was 22 he led the NBA in blk% and hit almost 40% of the 3 point shots he took. Our elite player development system couldn’t keep him healthy or coach him out of his bad shot selection.

      Yeah, damn, man, some of this “Oh, wait, he’s not a Knick anymore? Oh shit, I just realized that I don’t think KP is good at all” stuff is way over the top.

    85. Brian Cronin

      Considering that AD is the 0.001% outcome for Mitch, yeah, you’d have to be insane not to include him in an AD trade.

      Well, the question is – would you do that trade if AD didn’t agree to an extension?

    86. Owen

      You’d have to be crazy to trade Mitch for AD.

      Amirite?

      :-)

      Honestly, I love Mitch so much there is a part of me that actually feels that right now. But Mitch looks like a guy who will give you a strong 24 minutes a game for the next few years until he fouls out.

      Although, he seems to have gotten his foul issues under control somewhat lately. Hasn’t fouled out in the last six games!

    87. Hubert

      FWIW we’ve talked about KD, Kyrie, and AD a bit in this thread, but it’s mathematically impossible unless Kyrie and Durant want to take very large pay cuts.

      AD = $27,093,019
      KD = $38,150,000
      Kyrie = $32,700,00
      Noah’s dead money = $6,431,667

      That’s $104,374,686 before empty roster penalties.

    88. thenoblefacehumper

      Piggybacking on #83, the reason I liked the trade isn’t because I think there’s little-to-no chance we “lose” it. I’ve said before that I think KP can be a great player and if he does become one the trade will obviously be viewed pretty unfavorably (unless DSJ explodes, we nail one of the picks, etc.).

      The reason I liked it is because our version of losing the trade is not nearly as bad as Dallas’. In our version, we undersold on a player who seemed like he was going to find his way out anyway. That sucks, but it happens and there’s nothing inherently damaging about it. In Dallas’ version, they trade significant assets for an average-ish player to whom they proceed to give a 5/$156M contract. That’s franchise crippling stuff (we should know).

      The risk associated with Porzingis might be more palatable to us if we were in a different place on the win curve, but with where we are now we’d basically be totally screwed if he didn’t become a superstar. It was the right move.

    89. Max

      In the remote possibility that we’ll get Zion I’m not trading him, even for AD.

      – He’s 7 years younger than AD (and AD is injury prone, never played more than 75 games in a season)

      – He could work as a third banana with 2 max guys for the next 2 years then become the first option, allowing you to reload with FA around him when his rookie extension starts (after year 4).

      – I’m barely surviving this shame of a season, all in the hope of getting him… :-)

    90. Hubert

      By league rules, Smith, Matthews and Jordan CANNOT be traded in combination with another player til after the deadline (2 months).

      Really??? Most league rules make a little sense. Like I understand why you can’t buy out a player and let him return to his old team.

      But what is the purpose of letting you flip one player immediately as long as there is no other player in the deal?

    91. d-mar

      when he was 22 he led the NBA in blk% and hit almost 40% of the 3 point shots he took.

      Yeah, but let’s be real here, these are his percentages from inside the 3 point line:

      3 to 10 feet .381
      10 to 16 feet .430
      16 to 3 point line .422

      I mean, his mid range game basically sucks. I agree that Knicks fans are going a little overboard trashing the guy, but he really hasn’t been that great an NBA player and he’s always hurt.

    92. Brian Cronin

      FWIW we’ve talked about KD, Kyrie, and AD a bit in this thread, but it’s mathematically impossible unless Kyrie and Durant want to take very large pay cuts.

      AD = $27,093,019
      KD = $38,150,000
      Kyrie = $32,700,00
      Noah’s dead money = $6,431,667

      That’s $104,374,686 before empty roster penalties.

      Oh, yeah, they’d totally have to take paycuts, but come on, if you had AD in place and were looking to add those guys, it would be hard to imagine that they wouldn’t be willing to do so. We’re not talking about taking $5 million less, we’re talking more like $1-2 million each.

    93. Hubert

      The thing about Porzingis is that it’s not only that he has to overcome a devastating knee injury, but he has to overcome poor shot selection, stamina, and rebounding issues.

      He doesn’t have to be that good for Dallas’ picks to be outside the lottery. Luka will be in his third year by then and he will probably be able to carry a team to the playoffs by himself at that point. He almost did it this year.

      If you think Porzingis’s shot chart is going to turn into Luke Kornet’s shot chart overnight, you’re kidding yourself.

      I believe in coaching and in the influence of other players. Even Carmelo Anthony had a great shot chart when Jason Kidd was on the floor with him. It might not be overnight, but I’ll be shocked if by the end of next year Porzingis’ shot chart looks anything like it was here.

    94. Knick fan not in NJ who thinks our rookies will lead us to a lousy lottery pick in 2019

      I think most people here are undervaluing Porzingis by assuming that his future performance will be the same as his past performance. He is young enough he should improve over the next several years. Even if he only got stronger, that would be normal for his age and would help, but he is likely to improve in other ways too.

    95. Farfa

      Oh, yeah, they’d totally have to take paycuts, but come on, if you had AD in place and were looking to add those guys, it would be hard to imagine that they wouldn’t be willing to do so.

      Isn’t the whole point of KD going to NYC his desire to build his legacy? How would he do that with AD and Kyrie?

    96. thenoblefacehumper

      when he was 22 he led the NBA in blk% and hit almost 40% of the 3 point shots he took.

      Porzingis definitely has a skill set that, if deployed by an AI system, would probably lead to him being a very productive NBA player. But don’t we know better than anyone else that that’s no guarantee he actually becomes one? I mean if you put Klay Thompson’s brain in Carmelo Anthony’s body, the latter might have multiple 60%+ TS seasons.

      I could be wrong, but I highly doubt no one on the Knicks’ coaching staff ever told KP to take better shots. I mean, I’m no fan of gendered/sexist insults, but isn’t that what Hornacek was getting at? As for keeping him healthy, it’s always possible our medical team just sucks but Occam’s Razor pulls me in the direction of thinking that’s always going to be an issue to some extent for a 7’3″ guy with anemia.

    97. Hubert

      Oh, yeah, they’d totally have to take paycuts, but come on, if you had AD in place and were looking to add those guys, it would be hard to imagine that they wouldn’t be willing to do so. We’re not talking about taking $5 million less, we’re talking more like $1-2 million each.

      Let’s say you managed to keep Mitch and strip the whole roster.

      AD + KD + Kyrie + Mitch + Lance’s $1mm buyout + Noah’s stretch money + 8 empty roster penalties = $114mm

      That’s $5mm over the cap so you’re asking them to take $2.5mm less in year one, and that compounds over the life of the contract since all the raises are based of year 1. It’s probably a considerable cut over the life of the contract AND you have to pick up 8 players with just the room exception and vet minimums.

      If you want to keep low priced guys like Trier, Kornet, and Dotson, they have to take an additional $2.5 million in pay cuts in their first year.

      I’m all for big dreams, but I don’t think the math works on this one. I can’t see Durant leaving a super team to take less money for another potential super team. Maybe you get Kyrie to do a one-and-one at a discount this year and max him out later, but now you’re getting into Joe Smith/Minnesota territory.

      Most likely our dreams should be capped at two of these guys. I think that’s a better team-building strategy anyway.

    98. chriskZIPCODE

      I’m starting to sweat if Dallas can tank and pick top 5. Right now, they have the 11th worst record, so the odds are under 10% . But, if they move to 8th, they have like a 25% chance, and 6th would be 37%.

      NO is 1 win worse than Dallas, Det, Wash and Orlando are 2 wins worse, Memphis is 3 wins worse. that’s 6 teams, some of which are trying to win. Dallas has a rough schedule and much more incentive to lose.

      To me this trade leaves Dallas with KP, Luka, and that’s it. and they are capped out. So, if they have no pick in 2019 ,when we get our first pick in 2021, they might be mediocre. But, if they add a top 5 guy, and then that pick pushes to 2022, then they could be worth a lot less

    99. Z-man

      I was one of the first to jump aboard the KP train pre-draft, and I really wanted him to be THE GUY for us. My problem with KP since then is that he revealed himself to be a me-first guy a la Melo pretty much from day 1. The concept of “making your teammates better” or “modifying your game to meet the needs of the team” never seemed to have occurred to him. He clearly wants to be more like the athletically freakish ball-skill players (Durant, Giannis, and less so, Davis; even Melo is a candidate for this group and seems to have heavily influenced KP) and less like the “find my niche and dominate within that niche by playing intelligently within myself for the betterment of the team” (Duncan, Jokic, Dirk.) He thinks he has (or can develop) guard skills when it is clear that he can’t. I rarely have seen him make the great, intuitive pass, or even look very interested in passing, or restricting himself to efficient shots. Maybe a more established and respected coach like Carlisle and a gifted facilitator like Doncic will foster change in him, and if he can stay healthy, he’s potentially a top-10 level player. But he absolutely has to change his game and his attitude, and would not have done so in a Knicks uniform. So fuck him.

      I think his durability issues are overstated…he played over 2000 minutes as a 20 and a 21 yo and missed 10 and 16 games respectively during his first 2 years, not a crazy-high total. He was on his way to playing more as a 22yo until his knee blew out, and played through minor injury quite a bit. The most fragile parts of him seemed to be his ego and his stamina over the course of a long season. I think my points above about him wanting to shoehorn himself into a player that he isn’t suited to be contributes to his injury and stamina issues.

    100. Farfa

      I mean, I’m no fan of gendered/sexist insults, but isn’t that what Hornacek was getting at?

      It’s also hard to take only right shots if there’s nobody able to pass you the ball in the right spots. But yeah, I think he could have been more disciplined in his offensive choices.

    101. Ntilakilla

      It seems Pelicans fans are interested in what the Knicks have to offer. Some aren’t too thrilled with the games the Lakers are playing and seem to prefer a package of DSJ, Knox, Mitchell Robinson, top 3 2019 pick, and a future 1st.

    102. Zanzibar

      FWIW we’ve talked about KD, Kyrie, and AD a bit in this thread, but it’s mathematically impossible unless Kyrie and Durant want to take very large pay cuts.

      AD = $27,093,019
      KD = $38,150,000
      Kyrie = $32,700,00
      Noah’s dead money = $6,431,667

      That’s $104,374,686 before empty roster penalties.

      The sequence is:
      (1) Sign Kyrie and sign KD
      (2) Trade for AD

      If this goes to the summer, I think we have a better chance of landing AD. Kyrie’s gonna leave the Celtics and join the Knicks. Kawhi might join the Lakers and then they’ll keep their young players instead of gutting their roster for AD.

    103. Hubert

      I mean, I’m no fan of gendered/sexist insults, but isn’t that what Hornacek was getting at?

      Can you remind me what this is referencing? I’ve forgotten.

      I could be wrong, but I highly doubt no one on the Knicks’ coaching staff ever told KP to take better shots

      KP, Melo, JR, Knox, Mudiay… yeah I think it’s fair to assume we don’t focus on optimizing shot selection here.

    104. Ntilakilla

      Can you remind me what this is referencing? I’ve forgotten.

      This.

      Willy Hernangomez is Porzingis’ best friend on the Knicks. Mindlessly, Hornacek got Hernangomez alone one dreadful day and conveyed to him what he should’ve conveyed to Porzingis face-to-face: “Tell your guy to stop playing like a pussy!

      Porzingis essentially shut it down after that. Screw Hornacek! Screw Jackson! Screw the exit interview!

    105. Hubert

      The sequence is:
      (1) Sign Kyrie and sign KD
      (2) Trade for AD

      The sequence helps a little bit because of the 125% rule, but you still have to strip the roster to get enough salary to trade for AD and you still have to figure out why Durant would want to leave Golden State to play with two superstars.

    106. Brian Cronin

      The sequence helps a little bit because of the 125% rule, but you still have to strip the roster to get enough salary to trade for AD and you still have to figure out why Durant would want to leave Golden State to play with two superstars.

      Since they’d all be new guys here, then it wouldn’t be KD joining Steph’s team. It’d be his own new team. KD would clearly be the “leader” of this new Big Three. Heck, AD’s biggest knock by other NBA guys is that he seems like he would prefer to be the second gun of a Big Three rather than being the top guy (it is ridiculous that NBA guys treat this stuff like a demerit on his personality, but that’s the way these guys think).

      But yeah, don’t get me wrong, this whole thing revolves around KD being a weirdo. He really should just stay in Golden State.

    107. Ntilakilla

      It’s also hard to take only right shots if there’s nobody able to pass you the ball in the right spots.

      You know, this sounds fartingly similar to the excuses Melo’s apologists raised everytime his crappy shot selection was mentioned as a knock against his game. If only Melo had the right type of point guard to get him ball in the right places on the court his efficiency would skyrocket and we’d see the benefit of devoting an entire offense around such a talented, high volume scorer. All the while the roster would turn, new coach after new coach would come promising to better utilize Melo’s talents, and the same low efficiency shots would continue.

    108. marechal

      The narrative for Durant would be easy: joining the Warriors after the best season ever to win a championship is quite different than building your own team of stars to bring a trophy to one of the most inept franchises in the league. He would be hailed as a savior.

    109. Hubert

      This.

      Yikes.

      Also somewhat cringeworthy from that article:

      Hornacek’s frustration with Porzingis was … a combination of his allegedly soft play on the court and what was deemed as immature behavior off of it.

      That reportedly includes Porzingis consistently arriving at the training facility and consistently parking in the spots designated for management.

    110. Zanzibar

      The sequence helps a little bit because of the 125% rule, but you still have to strip the roster to get enough salary to trade for AD and you still have to figure out why Durant would want to leave Golden State to play with two superstars.

      Not really.

      If the AD trade is DSJ/Frank/Knox/lots of picks, we end up with:
      AD/KD/Kyrie/Mitch/Dotson/Kornet/Trier/Room Exception. That’s 8 players so not a gutted roster. But you’re right it might be too strong for KD who could be accused of just doing the whole GSW thing again.

    111. DRed

      I’m starting to sweat if Dallas can tank and pick top 5. Right now, they have the 11th worst record, so the odds are under 10% . But, if they move to 8th, they have like a 25% chance, and 6th would be 37%.

      Getting a pick in 2021, the year when the draft will have college freshmen and the first class of straight from HS players, might be better than having one in 2020.

    112. Farfa

      You know, this sounds fartingly similar to the excuses Melo’s apologists raised everytime his crappy shot selection was mentioned as a knock against his game. If only Melo had the right type of point guard to get him ball in the right places on the court his efficiency would skyrocket and we’d see the benefit of devoting an entire offense around such a talented, high volume scorer. All the while the roster would turn, new coach after new coach would come promising to better utilize Melo’s talents, and the same low efficiency shots would continue.

      Wait, I’m not saying that KP is a victim of something else. I just have, for intellectual honesty’s sake, to concede that maybe having a better point guard or a better system than the Triangle could have helped him. That said, I think ultimately he’s the main culprit for his middling efficiency. If you’re 7’3″ and you see your midrange shots aren’t really falling, you should actively seek an advantage somewhere else.

    113. Brian Cronin

      Getting a pick in 2021, the year when the draft will have college freshmen and the first class of straight from HS players, might be better than having one in 2020.

      It’d be 2022 vs. 2021 (instead of 2021 vs. 2020), but yes, otherwise, you could definitely be right.

    114. Ntilakilla

      @115

      I don’t know if you’re a Mets fan or not, Hubert. But this entire controversy and many of the rumors swirling around it like the one you referenced remind me so much of the Matt Harvey controversy circa 2015. So many similarities its mind-boggling. The immaturity, the entitlement, the difficulties with management, the injury issues, the inflated sense of value, the enabling of a very self-interested sports agent, etc.

    115. Hubert

      If the AD trade is DSJ/Frank/Knox/lots of picks, we end up with:

      But it can’t be. Once we sign KD & Kyrie we’re out of cap room and we can’t trade $12mm in salary for $27.5mm. We’d have to put together $22mm in player salary to make the trade work. That’s DS + Frank + Knox + Trier + the player we select in the draft + possibly more depending on what slot we draft.

    116. Zanzibar

      Heck, AD’s biggest knock by other NBA guys is that he seems like he would prefer to be the second gun of a Big Three rather than being the top guy (it is ridiculous that NBA guys treat this stuff like a demerit on his personality, but that’s the way these guys think).

      Yeah, I mean look at the Pels record and they have some decent talent on that roster. (Mirotic, Holiday, Randle). It makes you you question just how valuable the brow is. That’s one of the reasons I wouldn’t include Mitch in any trade. Another is that I believe Mitch will be a game changer and you don’t include a player like that in a deal where the other team is being forced to trade its star. Frank/Knox/DSJ/2019 pick/two Mav’s picks/some 2nd round picks imho would be better than the Lakers offer.

    117. Brian Cronin

      But it can’t be. Once we sign KD & Kyrie we’re out of cap room and we can’t trade $12mm in salary for $27.5mm. We’d have to put together $22mm in player salary to make the trade work. That’s DS + Frank + Knox + Trier + the player we select in the draft + possibly more depending on what slot we draft.

      Frank, DSJR, Knox and the pick would get the deal done (they’d have to wait for the pick to sign, of course, so it couldn’t become official until August), salary-wise.

    118. JK47

      Then Harvey, after years of sulking, pouting and pitching like garbage, left the Mets and immediately raised his K rate and lowered his FIP by a run and a half.

      I noticed the similarities between KP and Harvey, sure.

    119. Ntilakilla

      Wait, I’m not saying that KP is a victim of something else. I just have, for intellectual honesty’s sake, to concede that maybe having a better point guard or a better system than the Triangle could have helped him.

      No doubt, Farfa. I am not singling you out or anything. I’m just realizing the similarities between a lot of the discourse surrounding KP’s and Melo’s shot selection. I think both really signal how fans tend to fall in love with what a player can be while ignoring who they have shown themselves to be. And while Rick Carlisle might be a HOF coach, he’s not a miracle worker either. There was this idea that he was going to develop DSJ’s many athletic gifts into an NBA starting caliber point guard capable of playing the position as a high IQ level. Now there’s this idea that he is going scheme and coach KP into a type player he hasn’t shown himself to be 3+ NBA seasons.

    120. thenoblefacehumper

      It’s certainly possible that Porzingis would have been more productive with us if he had better coaching, better teammates, etc.

      But yeah, it’s hard to avoid the feeling that we’ve had this argument before. Porzingis is of course much younger than Melo/Bargnani/JR etc. so I think there’s a somewhat significantly higher chance he puts it all together, but at the end of the day it’s the same conversation.

      Put it this way–there are plenty of players we all agree would be no-brainer signings for any team (with exceptions at the extremes), even at 5/$156M. AD, KAT, Jokic, Curry, the list goes on. Even as rookies/sophomores, I never heard anyone have to write off extremely long periods of mediocre play as the result of having bad teammates, or coaches, or medical teams. Tons of these guys began their careers on total shit show teams. No matter what you think of Porzingis, he’s simply not in this group. What that means is that if you’re thinking purely rationally, it would be insanely hard to justify a team in our position giving him that deal.

    121. Ntilakilla

      Then Harvey, after years of sulking, pouting and pitching like garbage, left the Mets and immediately raised his K rate and lowered his FIP by a run and a half.

      Yes, but nowhere near his pre-injury level, which is the point. Unless you think a 4.33 FIP and a 7.8 SO/9 rate is worthwhile…

      (It’s not, both are below the league average)

    122. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

      There’s almost never just one reason for a player being unhappy, but it’s sounding more or more like it was KP that wanted out because he was tired of all the losing and had no faith in the current mangement. I can’t say I blame him, but he should hve known they would bad again this year. I guess he was looking for some signs of progress. Instead he saw he was part of the worst team in the NBA and many years away from contention even if they were fortunate enough to land a good player in the draft.

    123. ClashFan

      @124
      Isn’t Harvey also rumored to have some drug and/or alcohol issues? IIRC Harvey had two really bad injuries/surgeries, not just one.

      Also, Harvey actually dated hot models, not just awkwardly hitting on them on social media!
      :-)

    124. Hubert

      The immaturity, the entitlement, the difficulties with management, the injury issues, the inflated sense of value, the enabling of a very self-interested sports agent, etc.

      He definitely exhibits a lot of these traits. On the other hand, he exhibited them towards Phil Jackson and James Dolan, so I’m inclined to give him a pass. Part of me actually appreciates it.

      I don’t get the feeling he’ll be rolling up and parking in Mark Cuban’s spot any time soon.

    125. thenoblefacehumper

      Fascinating that Strat now thinks Porzingis is a fantastic evaluator of front office ability. I could swear I recall him denying this being the case when Porzingis was equally unhappy with a different management team. I wonder what changed?

    126. Hubert

      Isn’t Harvey also rumored to have some drug and/or alcohol issues?

      It wasn’t a rumor, and it was definitely “and” not “or”.

    127. Ntilakilla

      Isn’t Harvey also rumored to have some drug and/or alcohol issues?

      He was a partier, like to go out and get smashed out on the town. But it wasn’t like this stopped him from being a total beast before blowing out his right elbow.

      IIRC Harvey had two really bad injuries/surgeries, not just one.

      Yes, he had that issue with thoracic outlet syndrome after recovering from Tommy John surgery, which he originally complained the Mets management kept him too long in recovering from (sound familiar to you?).

      Also, Harvey actually dated hot models, not just awkwardly hitting on them on social media!
      :-)

      Oh yeah, that dude fucked a lot.

    128. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

      Scoring efficiency is the result of skillset and role. KP has the skillset to be very efficient. He was close to 40% from 3 last year, 80% from fron the FT line, and he CAN finish around the basket. His role was larger than that because it made sense from a basketball perspective for him to create off the dribble at times when nothing easy was available. If someone else did it the results would have been even worse because our secondary players were so bad. The problem for him last year was that he never found the sweet spot between taking on more responsibilty and avoiding the really trash shots and instead passing out of the double team. He was just beginning to figure iit out when he got hurt.

      KP is not the same as Melo because Melo could never raise his efficiency much by shooting more 3s. Not could he dunk on lobs etc.. His only option to be efficient was to get to the rim and finish or draw fouls. He did that when he was young, but he never added a consistently good 3 and slowly lost his ability inside.

    129. Ntilakilla

      Part of me actually appreciates it. I don’t get the feeling he’ll be rolling up and parking in Mark Cuban’s spot any time soon.

      That’s part of the problem, IMO. We give these antics a free pass because the respective organizations involved are such a mess at the top we assume the player they are feuding with is right by default. But I am not convinced that Dolan, Mills and Phil being problematic automatically means that the particular player they are taking issue with is being reasonable. Much of the sports media and the Knicks media often took this stance during the Melodrama with Phil, absolving the former because of the latter’s clueless attitude and off-putting arrogance. But it could just be that all parties involved are all assholes in their own way. This is often the case in dysfunctional organizations, by the way, since dysfunction from the top permeates every level of a operational culture.

    130. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

      Fascinating that Strat now thinks Porzingis is a fantastic evaluator of front office ability. I could swear I recall him denying this being the case when Porzingis was equally unhappy with a different management team. I wonder what changed?

      Phil was the beginning of the problem (the way he treated Melo seemed to be a big issue for KP becauase they had a good relationship). But once Phil was run out of town and the team got worse two years in a row it was about basketball and direction.

      To me this is as basic as 1+1=2.

      You can rebuild by tanking a year. But if you take it too far you raise the risk of any good players you do have wanting out and free agents not wanting to join you. No one wants to lose 6-7 years of their career waiting for a series of 19 years rookies to mature and start reaching their peak (assuming you actually select a few good ones) . I’ve been talking about this for over a year. Now we are “all in” on cap space or we are going to lose another couple of years because KP was the most advanced and best player of the rebuild. Nothing is broken in the rebuild. It’s just potentially delayed even more unless a couple of stars join. Time matters in any plan!!

    131. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      I’m definitely going to root for the Dallas Mavericks (except for in 2021 where I want them to tank and 2023 where I want them to pick 11th) despite the falling out with KP. Doncic and KP were the two guys I wanted together in New York (Frank, Doncic, and Porzingis made so much sense together), but now I can root for them irrationally on somebody else’s books.

      I definitely think the odds are against Porzingis here, though. He tore his ACL and wasn’t even that good or durable before that happened. He’s also anemic and about to be overpaid. Doncic and Porzingis will likely fall somewhere between Embiid/Simmons and Booker/Ayton, and there’s a lot of real estate between title contention and tank contention. What makes Embiid/Simmons so much better is likely a combination of coaching, teammates, and the fact that Embiid and Simmons are great basketball players.

      Ayton/Booker, Towns/Wiggins, Embiid/Simmons, and now Doncic/Porzingis. I guess what I’m trying to get at is all of PHX, MIN, PHI, and DAL have young tandems but you begin to see early how overpaying guys can get you in trouble. Doncic is probably the best prospect of the group (because he’s not a better player than either Simmons or Towns today), but simply having a guy like that doesn’t guarantee success. The Mavericks need to be right about Porzingis or somebody will get fired.

    132. Ntilakilla

      Scoring efficiency is the result of skillset and role. KP has the skillset to be very efficient.

      I remember the earlier iteration of this trope. Back then it was Olympic Melo. Olympic Melo was the efficient version of regular Melo who led his Olympic teammates with a far more unselfish and efficient style of play that had him taking lots of catch and shoot 3 point shots. We were supposed to see Olympic Melo for years, he was even supposed to make an appearance in Oklahoma and Houston. But the funny thing about Olympic Melo was that he only showed up during the Olympics. Now we have Euro KP, the version of KP who showed up in the Eurobasket tournament for Latvia – he will be the efficient 50/40/90 we always knew he could be.

    133. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      @140 I remember KP’s shooting numbers being inefficient in last year’s Eurobasket tournament. When I checked he had a TS% around like .516 for the tournament. I could be wrong, but I think the only time we’ve ever seen Super KP was in November of 2016 and 2017.

      EDIT: KP had a TS% over 65% in Eurobasket. I stand corrected. He was great in that tournament.

    134. Hubert

      Frank, DSJR, Knox and the pick would get the deal done (they’d have to wait for the pick to sign, of course, so it couldn’t become official until August), salary-wise.

      So we’re left with Mitch, Trier, Kornet, Dotson, and maybe Vonleh on the room, plus an assortment of veteran minimums. We have no flexibility to make trades because we can’t put together salary. All we have is the mid-level exception every year and our draft picks. I just don’t think you can build a team like that.

      If New Orleans is willing to trade Davis to us, sign Kyrie and pass on giving 35% of the salary cap to Durant. That’s two 26 year old superstars and with a ton of young kids backing them up who can be developed or packaged with picks for better pieces. That strikes me as more likely to succeed.

    135. Zanzibar

      If New Orleans is willing to trade Davis to us, sign Kyrie and pass on giving 35% of the salary cap to Durant. That’s two 26 year old superstars and with a ton of young kids backing them up who can be developed or packaged with picks for better pieces. That strikes me as more likely to succeed.

      I’d rather have Kyrie, KP, and Mitch than just Kyrie and AD. Would any of you include Jaren or Ayton in a deal for AD if you were the Grizz or Phoenix? If you wouldn’t but are willing to include Mitch, it’s because he’s a 2nd round pick.

    136. JK47

      Porzingis needs not one but two things to go right to be worth a big contract:
      1. Improve efficiency
      2. Stay healthy

      Either of those things goes wrong, and he’s a cap killer.

      A true max player looks like Anthony Davis. KP has MILES to go to catch up with Davis. He’s about half an Anthony Davis. The smart thing to do is to give that money to somebody who has already demonstrated .200+ WS48 talent, not invest it in a guy who might get there someday if he improves a whole lot. It’s hard to get an Anthony Davis! But that doesn’t mean you should buy the off-brand version of Anthony Davis if you can’t get the real one.

    137. Frank O.

      On the Dallas side, I think Doncic will make KP way, way better.
      KP has never played with a great guard.
      Doncic will put KP in all the right situations. KP won’t have to create his own shot, likely will get a lot of oops and dishes in the paint, and still take his threes.
      But KP won’t need to handle the ball as much as they Knicks made him. He’ll have a guy giving it to him in all the right places.
      I think time will show that this pairing will be very good to great.

      But I still think the Knicks made a smart move.

    138. geo

      i know it’s not really possible, but, i kind of wish we could keep DJ around…

      @MikeVorkunov
      “I’m way more handsome than he is,” DeAndre Jordan says of the comparisons between him and new Knicks teammate Mitchell Robinson. “But other than that, yeah you definitely see some similarities.”

    139. geo

      hopefully at this time on friday – kanter, mud, and lance are no longer on our roster…

      for myself, finally moving on from lance will be a sure sign the worm has turned for the knicks…

    140. Early Bird

      Even if KP does improve his TS% to around .600. How does one value him given that he’s a poor rebounder?

    141. Brian Cronin

      So we’re left with Mitch, Trier, Kornet, Dotson, and maybe Vonleh on the room, plus an assortment of veteran minimums. We have no flexibility to make trades because we can’t put together salary. All we have is the mid-level exception every year and our draft picks. I just don’t think you can build a team like that.

      That’s exactly what Miami did and they went to, what, four straight NBA Finals? We’re talking the Eastern Conference here. That team is a beast. Although I think you probably pass on Vonleh for the room at that point and use the room on a guard. Maybe TJ McConnell?

      I mean, holy shit, “Yeah, they have Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis, but who else do they have?” Come on!

    142. Brian Cronin

      EDIT: KP had a TS% over 65% in Eurobasket. I stand corrected. He was great in that tournament.

      Phew with the correction. I was like, “Huh? Wasn’t he really great in Eurobasket?”

    143. Farfa

      The Mudiay thing is the most low-key intriguing one: do they keep him only to let him expire? Do they try to flip him for a second?

      I think it’s safe to say that they’re not gonna extend him now. Even if I never liked the basketball player, what happened to him is the equivalent of getting your fiancee stolen by someone slightly more attractive than you at the last moment possible. I feel a bit for him

    144. Brian Cronin

      Yeah, I do feel a bit for Mudiay, especially since he can’t even show off since he’s injured.

    145. Zanzibar

      Yeah, I do feel a bit for Mudiay Frank, especially since he can’t even show off since he’s injured.

      How about that tweet from Courtney’s burner account that Knicks were about to trade Frank and Courtney for Ross? Man the FO were desperate to shed salary. Strat would have fainted if Cuban hadn’t rescued us and that trade had gone through.

    146. Frank

      KP’s biggest offensive weaknesses are that he doesn’t have the handle or the athleticism create his own shot other than a post-up over a smaller guy or create offense for others – and doesn’t have the vision to be able to create shots for others. But you get him with space behind the arc or on the move and he’s great. With Doncic being the shot creator, I think KP can/will be really really good as a possession finisher. Assuming he and Luka both stay healthy, I think he will be a 28 usage 60 TS guy. I don’t think he’ll ever average more than 2 assists per 36 or a TRB% over 15, but if they can find the right front court mate for him and let Luka handle all the shot creation duties, it could work out really well for the Mavs.

      Honestly I respect the Mavs for pushing their chips in – really both teams are taking big swings here. I hope it works out well for both teams.

    147. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      I wonder how much money DeAndre Jordan would be willing to lose if Kyrie and KD want to come here. He’s made over $100M in his career but hasn’t won a championship as yet. Maybe we could get Kyrie Irving to take a small discount this year on something like a 3 year deal with a player option on the 3rd year (so he can opt out and get the max salary after 10 years of service in 2021), and then offer the rest of that money to DeAndre Jordan. Maybe if instead of 38 and 28, Irving and Durant start at $35M and $25M, and we trade Ntilikina for a pair of 2nd round picks to clear up some cap room for DJ.

      If we could somehow get Irving, Durant, and Jordan on the team this summer, that should give us the best chance of any team to win a championship. I’ll take Irving, Stephen A Smith, Durant, Zion, and DeAndre Jordan against any team’s starting five.

    148. geo

      for those of you whom haven’t already stumbled across this – here’s a listing of the lotto odds by season’s end team placement: http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

      fuck, that 47.9% chance to get the 5th pick (even as the worst team) is kind of depressing me…

      oh well, it’ll either happen or it won’t…

    149. Z-man

      Also, Harvey actually dated hot models, not just awkwardly hitting on them on social media!
      :-)

      Oh yeah, that dude fucked a lot.

      Not to rumor-monger, but I have it on very good authority (a friend who lived adjacent to KP’s apartment) that KP was no slouch in this department.

      That’s exactly what Miami did and they went to, what, four straight NBA Finals? We’re talking the Eastern Conference here. That team is a beast. Although I think you probably pass on Vonleh for the room at that point and use the room on a guard. Maybe TJ McConnell?

      I mean, holy shit, “Yeah, they have Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis, but who else do they have?” Come on!

      Boston did sort of the same thing. Very few people expected Rondo to be a 4th star, and the rest of the team was an assortment of vet’s minimum to mid-level guys.

      If you can sign any three of Kyrie, KD, AD and Kawhi without stripping all of your draft assets, you do it without blinking. If all of your fungible draft assets and rookie-scale guys are the price, then maybe you hesitate.

    150. MSA

      I think he will be a 28 usage 60 TS guy

      I don’t think KP will ever be that guy. It’s incredibly difficult to get this numbers and I don’t think it’s a matter of environment but talent.

      Here’s the short list for this season:

      https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&year_min=2019&year_max=2019&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=mp_per_g_req&c1stat=usg_pct&c1comp=gt&c1val=28&c2stat=ts_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=60&order_by=ws

      Only 22 players managed to get to 28/60 USG/TS in history.

    151. Owen

      I think everyone in NY has a friend who partied with Matt Harvey.

      I watched the Eurobasket game between Latvia and Slovenia. It was amazing and Porzingis had an efficient 30+. Anyone who watched that game (and the semis and finals) knew it was utter insanity Doncic wasn’t at worst the second pick in the draft.

    152. Hubert

      Boston and Miami had more on their rosters than what we’d have in this scenario.

      Boston had Rondo, Perkins, Tony Allen, and Glen Davis before they got to picking up veteran minimums.

      Miami had Chalmers, Haslem, Anthony, and somehow convinced Mike Miller to sign for the room before they got to picking up veteran minimums.

      We’d have Mitch, Trier, Dotson, and the room exception.

    153. abk

      If we could somehow get Irving, Durant, and Jordan on the team this summer, that should give us the best chance of any team to win a championship. I’ll take Irving, Stephen A Smith, Durant, Zion, and DeAndre Jordan against any team’s starting five.

      So in your super optimistic free agent scenario we also win the lottery? Not a realistic way to plan a team.

      Even if we finish with the worst record we have a 52% chance at picking #5, meaning our odds are higher to pick there than #1-4 combined. And we’re fairly likely to not finish with the worst record. Any smart team planning will be done with the idea we’re picking 5th or 6th, and anything better is a lucky fluke. We should be planning with the idea that Romeo Langford or whoever your non-Zion/Ja/Barett choice is becomes a future Knick. Anything else is just wishful thinking until May 14th.

      We’re probably significantly more likely to get KD than Zion at this point. If there’s any kind of under the table agreement then we’re MUCH MUCH more likely to get KD. And for those thinking trading up, consider how many of us wouldn’t trade Zion for AD. That means all of the AD offers should be comparable to what it would take to trade up for Zion (2019 #1, Mitch, both Mavs picks, Knox…).

      And would whoever the lucky team is even do that? Star power counts for a lot in the NBA, both for winning and for revenues. Not sure why someone would trade essentially 9 cost-controlled years of Zion for much of anything. I don’t think I would do it for AD on a one-year deal or a super-max.

    154. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      @158

      Back in 2012 there was an aggressive argument about whether Harden was a product or Thunder synergy. The great jon abbey stopped championing future HOFer Josh Selby long enough to tell us that not only was Harden not worth the Thunder worrying about, but that he capped out as a 6MotY and would come to earth if played as a starter.

      There is no player in league history that shot .600 TS% on 28 USG% because of fit, spacing or synergy. That shit is entirely talent-dependent.

      We all wanted to see Porzingis as that guy despite him showing us that he wasn’t capable of it. Dallas now gets the privilege.

    155. Hubert

      There’s a Porzingis presser in Dallas right now. Rick Carlisle is kissing Janis Porzingis’ ass.

    156. geo

      hmmmm…possibility of beasely out in laker land and melo in?

      this occurred after the recent warrior/laker game:

      The confrontation, earlier reported by The Athletic, was “heated,” according to a source but calmed down rather quickly. Beasley, who also got into a verbal spat on the sideline with Walton during the Lakers’ 138-128 overtime victory in Oklahoma City on Jan. 17, repeatedly referred to Walton as “bro” during the exchange Saturday, which touched a nerve with the coach

      funny thing is – i wonder who’s on shakier ground there – beasely or walton…

      between beasely and melo – i might actually pick melo for their situation…

    157. chriskZIPCODE

      Not to rumor-monger, but I have it on very good authority (a friend who lived adjacent to KP’s apartment) that KP was no slouch in this department.

      As his agent, do you think Janis got 10% of that ass? or is that weird cuz they’re brothers?

    158. geo

      must have been an interesting conversation with dennis smith jr and the front office/coaching staff – yeah, you’re our guy – unless we draft morant, or, pickup a better point guard (or better fit) in free agency…

    159. abk

      Lakers apparently upped their offer to Ball, Kuzma, Ingram, Rondo, Lance, and two firsts while also taking Solomon Hill’s contract. Still not a lot of potential star power coming back to NO.

    160. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      And I don’t want to get too far in the totally-not-gonna-happen NBA 2K19 trade machine rabbit hole, but when you have Durant, Kyrie and Davis, you don’t need much more than switch-friendly wings/long guards that can guard multiple positions and don’t totally brick you out of games.

      The Heat got lucky with Ray Allen and Birdman, but they weren’t a deep team at all. And when you have prime LeBron, you don’t need to be. The upside for super-deep teams like the Raptors and Warriors is that they don’t need to ride their stars through the early rounds of the playoffs. Hard to quantify the value of that, but ultimately it’s the ability to play a Curry/Durant duo 40-42 MPG during the Finals that sets a top-heavy team apart.

    161. ess-dog

      Funny that Milwaukee is on the list. Can they beat our offer? I think if N.O. wants a proper rebuild, a Knicks trade makes the most sense. If they just want the best players, it’s Clips/Bucks.

    162. rama got that Fizdale Magic

      geo, thanks for the tankathon link. I knew the odds had been flattened, knew that our chance at #1 was only 14%, but … I don’t think I fully appreciated we have a 48% chance of picking 5th. That’s appalling.

      If we want AD, we should trade for him now. I would obviously take Zion over AD, but 14% chance of Zion, and 48% chance of Reddish (???) – trade the #1 pick now while there is still the perception of value.

      Even then, we probably can’t best the Lakers, despite their offer being kind of meh – especially when they’d have to take Rondo back (wasn’t there a bit of bad blood there?) and Stephenson, known for always being a good teammate.

    163. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Ball, Kuzma, Ingram, Rondo, Lance, and two firsts

      I know the firsts won’t be worth much as long as LeBron lives and breathes, but my god that’s a lot for one player about to make $46M AAV.

    164. abk

      I know the firsts won’t be worth much as long as LeBron lives and breathes, but my god that’s a lot for one player about to make $46M AAV.

      Well Rondo and Lance are just to match contracts I think. But yeah, if we were to trade all that’s been discussed for AD, how do we build a team around him? I think it’d have to be in the offseason after we’ve already signed the two max free agents. Because otherwise we won’t have the space if we acquire Davis first right?

    165. Hubert

      while also taking Solomon Hill’s contract

      That adds no value to the offer. I doubt New Orleans thinks they’re players for Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They’ll have to spend to the floor next year anyway.

      It’s basically Ball, Kuzma, Ingram, and two firsts.

      A side by side of that vs a similar offer from us:

      Ball v Smith
      Ingram v our 2019 pick (Zion protected)
      Kuzma v Trier
      Rondo & Lance v Kanter (salary filler v salary filler)
      Two firsts from an LA team with LeBron and AD v two firsts from a Dallas team with Doncic and KP

      Line by line, I think the first two are even. Kuzma is better than Trier. Dallas’ firsts are better than LA’s.

      But we have the advantage of not being the team that New Orleans believes tampered with their star. So in an offer that close, I think we win.

    166. Brian Cronin

      Well Rondo and Lance are just to match contracts I think. But yeah, if we were to trade all that’s been discussed for AD, how do we build a team around him? I think it’d have to be in the offseason after we’ve already signed the two max free agents. Because otherwise we won’t have the space if we acquire Davis first right?

      Correct, unless the two max guys took significant pay cuts.

    167. Zanzibar

      If true and not just an attempt to get Lakers to up their offer, it’s Brow stating he’s willing to join:
      > LBJ in LA
      > Giannis in Milwaukee
      > Kawhi in Clipperville
      > Kyrie in NYC

      SGA, Harrell and Harris would be a terrific offer if Pels don’t want to rebuild but Harris is gonna be a UFA this summer and he might not commit to NO.

      Milwaukee doesn’t have anything to trade.

      Lakers offer is impressive until you realize that Ingram and Kuzma are not very good and Lonzo is no sure thing.

      If Knicks include Mitch, Knox, and unprotected 2019 1st as part of any deal (other picks and players would be included), I think Pels would take that offer. Why is Woj saying that Knicks don’t have enough to make a deal now that they’ve traded KP? Guy should just do what he does best which is answer his phone and shut up otherwise.

    168. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      But yeah, if we were to trade all that’s been discussed for AD, how do we build a team around him?

      You don’t. But Davis doesn’t seem to realize that eating his cake means he can’t have it, too.

      This is why Durant seems like such a moron to me: he’s one of the few players who was able to join a stacked team without them giving up anything and without having to take a huge paycut like David West, Karl Malone, Heatle LeBron, et al. I really hope Durant doesn’t think the grass is greener. I’d hate to see him in blue and orange, disgruntled with a supermax at age 34.

    169. geo

      geo, thanks for the tankathon link. I knew the odds had been flattened, knew that our chance at #1 was only 14%, but … I don’t think I fully appreciated we have a 48% chance of picking 5th. That’s appalling.

      i know right…it’s crazy, for months i’ve read folks here speaking about the lottery odds – but, it wasn’t until i looked at that graph that reality came and smacked me upside the head…ugh, wake me up on may the 15th…

      May 14 — NBA Draft Lottery 2019 (Chicago)
      June 20 — NBA Draft 2019

    170. abk

      Ball v Smith
      Ingram v our 2019 pick (Zion protected)
      Kuzma v Trier
      Rondo & Lance v Kanter (salary filler v salary filler)
      Two firsts from an LA team with LeBron and AD v two firsts from a Dallas team with Doncic and KP

      I think our 2019 pick is much more valuable than Ingram. Ingram’s about to go into the last year of his deal and then probably get overpaid. Our 2019 pick, even Zion protected, is hugely valuable to me. The only risk is if we do win the lottery, in which case our pick probably wouldn’t be in the lottery at all in 2020 (with AD and Kyrie or whoever).

      I’d take Ball over Smith, but still think our offer is better. We’d prefer to wait til the offseason though, so we can get the two max FAs.

    171. abk

      We’ve been talking about those odds all season!

      Lol right? Been saying all season to forget about Zion; he is not part of the team in any realistic planning. Be happy we have a decent shot at someone like Ja Morant, or could use the pick to trade for AD.

    172. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      I don’t think any of the players on the Lakers are worth accepting as a return for a legit superstar (funny that Nance and Randle were the only decent players last year, given away for practically nothing) but it’s still a lot of bodies to give up for Davis. Kuzma, Ingram and Ball have played about 40% of the team’s minutes this year. You have to replace about 3,000 minutes if you give all three up for Davis.

    173. geo

      We’ve been talking about those odds all season!

      words versus pictures…pictures win in this situation :)

      it’s one thing to write: having the worst record in the league guarantees you a 47.9% chance of picking fifth…it’s a whole other story to see those tiny, small percentages sitting underneath the first, second, third and fourth picks – and, then that HUGE 47.9 number sitting beneath pick number 5…

      the whole graphic is basically yelling at you that although you tanked correctly (for once) – the mostly likely outcome is you’ll end up with the fifth pick…

      i know that’s not what it means – but, it is what it looks like…

    174. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      We’ve been talking about those odds all season!

      you underestimate… the transience of knowledge… in geoland… everything is ephemeral… and that’s how he likes it…

    175. Hubert

      I think our 2019 pick is much more valuable than Ingram.

      I agree, but Ball is probably more valuable than Smith. Overall, I think a top 2 of Smith plus a top 1 protected pick is at least as valuable as Ball and Ingram. I also think the Dallas picks are more valuable than LA’s.

      I’m not saying New Orleans should accept that from us. I’m just saying that’s not a great offer from LA, we can easily top it.

    176. abk

      I don’t think any of the players on the Lakers are worth accepting as a return for a legit superstar (funny that Nance and Randle were the only decent players last year, given away for practically nothing) but it’s still a lot of bodies to give up for Davis. Kuzma, Ingram and Ball have played about 40% of the team’s minutes this year. You have to replace about 3,000 minutes if you give all three up for Davis.

      But they still have a max slot even with AD, so AD and the free agent would replace most of that. You can find some other role players with something like LeBron, Kawhi, and AD.

    177. abk

      i know that’s not what it means – but, it is what it looks like…

      That’s exactly what it means. We’re very unlikely to get Zion, and we’re fairly unlikely to even have Barrett or Morant available at our pick. Our most likely outcome is one of the many wings who has yet to pull apart from the pack of hyped guys.

    178. geo

      you underestimate… the transience of knowledge… in geoland… everything is ephemeral… and that’s how he likes it…

      a had a turkey sandwich for lunch…that was a good thing…

    179. abk

      I agree, but Ball is probably more valuable than Smith. Overall, I think a top 2 of Smith plus a top 1 protected pick is at least as valuable as Ball and Ingram. I also think the Dallas picks are more valuable than LA’s.

      I’m not saying New Orleans should accept that from us. I’m just saying that’s not a great offer from LA, we can easily top it.

      Agreed. And with the top FAs in hand, it’s probably a no-brainer. Here are some other questions for thought:

      1. Would you make that trade right now (maybe even adding a bit more in assets), knowing it probably means you can only add one max player with AD?
      2. Would you make the trade in the offseason (assuming we don’t win the lottery) if two of KD, Kawhi, and Kyrie have already signed elsewhere? Aka we’re not forming a big three right away
      3. Do you make the trade at any time without a guarantee AD will sign an extension?

    180. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      I really don’t know who the other teams will pick in the #2 slot, assuming that no one is dumb enough to pass on Zion at #1. I have to believe that about half of the lottery-bound teams would take Barrett at #2, making the #3 slot quite appealing to the Knicks with Morant sitting there ready to be a starting PG from day 1. Top-3 protections would be a requirement for me. I’d tell the opposing GM that there’s nothing that will budge me from that position.

      Even if you end up with Barrett sitting there at #3, you could very well trade down to pick up more picks. People think he’s a #1 overall talent, which is stupid, but I’d be happy to exploit that line of thinking.

    181. Ntilakilla

      Have people here cooled down on Lonzo Ball? I know Lavar is a pain in the ass as always. But he’s still got plenty of room to grow. He’s moderately improved his FG%. Man, I just think he does so many things without having to score the ball.

    182. Kevin Udwary

      We have a lot of picks to make a run at Zion if we really want him. The Mavs were able to trade up a couple spots to get Luka by giving up one future first. Could we potential trade up from 5 to 1 by giving up a 2020 and 2021 1st? I would think that would be damn tempting to a rebuilding team, and may be worth it on our end if we really can get 2 actual max free agents.

    183. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      The fact that Luka wasn’t a #1 pick means a lot to this hypothetical. Zion is the clear-cut #1 this year and there’s really no one close. The Mavs exploited the NCAA bias to great effect.

      I think Zion is a future MVP candidate and I’d still be worried about mortgaging three drafts for him. He’s still just a prospect. Three 1sts is the price you pay for a proven superstar, not a guy who’s “merely” having one of the best seasons in NCAA history — Michael Beasley made the same claim.

    184. Kevin Udwary

      You need the cap space for a superstar, though. If we cap out on 2 max free agents for years to come, are we going to be in the position to use those picks on something more than mid round flyers? I know selling out the future for the present has killed us over and over, but it seems like we are kind of already doing that if we are focusing on filling all our cap space next year on max level veterans. Might as well try to add a potential superstar on a rookie contract to that.

    185. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      If we end up with any pick outside of the top 3, I’ll know for sure that God hates Jim Dolan

    186. alsep73

      Michael Beasley made the same claim.

      Jowles, what did you think of Beasley as a prospect at the time of that draft? Just curious.

    187. Owen

      I don’t think anyone is trading down from #1 this year. You’d be a fool to pass on Zion. A fool out of a job.

      Please no one tell me what I thought of Beasley. I don’t like getting things wrong.

    188. swiftandabundant

      Kevin, having first round picks and using them for mid first round prospects is completely different than trading those picks and not even having a shot at drafting anyone at all. Plenty of good players, sometimes stars, are available in the mid first round, early second round, etc.

    189. ptmilo

      If we end up with any pick outside of the top 3, I’ll know for sure that God hates Jim Dolan

      this is your walter mitty knickerblogger climax. dolan inherits the knicks and rangers and msg and a few billion for offloading cablevision besides and we get romeo langford but it’s karma.

    190. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Jowles, what did you think of Beasley as a prospect at the time of that draft? Just curious.

      I thought he was one of the best prospects ever seen in the NCAA, even with the limited advanced stats we had at the time. I think any other opinion would have been laughed at, and with good reason. Same response if you told me Steph Curry would put up the best offensive seasons in the 3PT era and win multiple MVPs.

      I also wanted DeAndre Jordan to be a Knick, so I wasn’t a complete fool.

    191. dtrickey

      I thought he was one of the best prospects ever seen in the NCAA, even with the limited advanced stats we had at the time.

      IIRC at the time, a lot of the commentary was that you could pick Rose or Beasley no.1 and it would probably be the right pick, which probably gives weight to the idea that whilst Zion is great, 3 first rounders would be overs for him.

    192. abk

      Hawks win again. 8 wins ahead of us, which makes them practically impossible to catch up with. That means we are all but guaranteed for a bottom 4 finish.

      From a lottery odds standpoint, our chances at the top picks are essentially set. The 28th – 30th records have identical odds at picks #1-4, and the 27th place has only slightly worse odds. In other words, at this point what we’re tanking for is to get the 5th pick rather than the 6th or 7th pick if we don’t get drawn in the lottery.

      In other other words, tanking further is not particularly important. Would be far better for our young guys to crush it than to get a 30% better chance at picking 5th rather than 6th.

    193. Early Bird

      I’d much rather have the 5th pick than the 6th. We don’t know who will be available. We were 1 pick away from Steph Curry. That stuff matters.

    194. dtrickey

      In other other words, tanking further is not particularly important. Would be far better for our young guys to crush it than to get a 30% better chance at picking 5th rather than 6th.

      That’s the reasoning we used to help us sleep at night missing out on KAT after TH2 went supernova in the last week of the season.

    195. abk

      I’d much rather have the 5th pick than the 6th. We don’t know who will be available. We were 1 pick away from Steph Curry. That stuff matters.

      Statistically 5th is only slightly better than 6th. I’d of course rather have 5th than 6th too, but the difference is marginal. Check this out:

      https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-is-winning-the-nba-draft-lottery-really-worth/

      The difference in production between the first and second pick is larger than the difference between #3 and #10. In most drafts there are 1-2 fairly surefire stars, and then typically after that it’s a bit more random.

      That’s the reasoning we used to help us sleep at night missing out on KAT after TH2 went supernova in the last week of the season.

      No, it’s not. In fact it’s the opposite: my entire point is we can’t do anything at this point to improve or really even harm our chances at a top 1-4 pick. Literally any tanking or not is bickering between a slight improvement in odds of picking 5th over 6th or 7th. It’s not nothing, but it’s very unlikely to cost us a star player, unlike lowering your odds of picking 1st by 50% (which is what happened in your example). That’s an enormous difference in likelihood of getting a star.

    196. Early Bird

      Yes, but that’s the thing about averages–it doesn’t go that way every time. Sometimes it makes no difference, sometimes you end up with Jordan Hill instead of Steph Curry.

      On the other hand, we have literally nothing to gain by passing any other team.

    197. rama got that Fizdale Magic

      I also wanted DeAndre Jordan to be a Knick, so I wasn’t a complete fool.

      Wishes should have time stamps.

    198. abk

      Yes, but that’s the thing about averages–it doesn’t go that way every time. Sometimes it makes no difference, sometimes you end up with Jordan Hill instead of Steph Curry.

      On the other hand, we have literally nothing to gain by passing any other team.

      Of course, and sometimes the sixth pick turns out way way better than the fifth. On average, it doesn’t mean much though.

      No one would disagree that we have nothing to lose by tanking. That’s quite obvious, but my point was that at this point the importance of tanking is diminished. We basically cannot improve or hurt our odds of picks #1-4 (slightly worse odds if we finish 27th, but odds are exactly the same for 28th-30th). I’ll leave it at that.

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