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Monday, July 16, 2018

Knicks Morning News (2018.06.19)

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks tab Oklahoma PG Trae Young in latest ESPN mock draft
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 4:00:09 PM)

    In their latest mock draft, ESPN sees Oklahoma PG Trae Young going to the Knicks at No. 9 overall.

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks’ Kanter learns his father has been sentenced to prison in Turkey
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 1:00:21 PM)

    Knicks C Enes Kanter learned Monday that his father, Dr. Mehmet Kanter, has been sentenced to 15 years in prison.

  • [NYPost] Kentucky youngster works his way onto Knicks’ draft radar
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 7:21:24 PM)

    The hype has hit overdrive for Kentucky freshman small forward Kevin Knox. Kevin Knox Sr., Knox’s father and manager, told The Post he believes the Knicks are considering taking his son with the ninth pick in Thursday’s draft. According to an NBA source, Knox got the better of Michigan State’s Miles Bridges, another projected lottery…

  • [NYPost] Clyde Frazier touts Porzingis, makes Knicks draft request
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 12:16:21 PM)

    Walt Frazier joined forces with probable No. 1 pick Deandre Ayton on Monday at a pop-up shop across the street from Barclays Center — site of Thursday night’s NBA draft. A new run of Puma Clyde sneakers are back, and the company, in its bid to plunge back into basketball, has added the versatile center…

  • [NYPost] Enes Kanter’s dad becomes pawn in Turkey’s fight with Knicks center
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 7:47:43 AM)

    Enes Kanter’s father, Dr. Mehmet Kanter, has been sentenced to 15 years in prison by the Turkish government, who issued an arrest warrant for him, according to reports out of Turkey. The charges are unclear. He is likely to be brought into custody this morning. The Knicks center, who has been an outspoken critic of…

  • [NYDN] Asian stock markets tumble as Trump announces $200B China tariffs
    (Tuesday, June 19, 2018 3:05:00 AM)

    President Trump’s move to escalate a trade battle with China with even more tariffs has sent Asian stock markets tumbling.

    Trump told United States Trade Representative officials Monday to explore 10% duties on $200 billion worth of goods, the latest jab in a back and forth between the world’s…

  • [NYDN] Rebalance the scales: Rein in N.Y.’s prosecutors to prevent abuse
    (Tuesday, June 19, 2018 2:00:00 AM)

    Amid squabbling in the state Senate, lawmakers recently passed a measure to establish a desperately needed commission that will hold rule-breaking prosecutors accountable for putting the wrong person behind bars.

    It’s almost certain to cruise through the Democrat-led Assembly, and could be signed…

  • [NYDN] Brick by brick: A blueprint for fixing NYCHA
    (Tuesday, June 19, 2018 1:05:00 AM)

    No matter Mayor de Blasio’s billion-dollar-plus agreement with the feds to clean up mold, lead paint and more in decaying Housing Authority apartments, without a profound change in how NYCHA does business, the mayor has little hope of being a decent landlord to more than 400,000 New Yorkers enduring…

  • [NYDN] Come and get it: The Department of Education must do more to let kids know about free summer meals
    (Tuesday, June 19, 2018 1:00:00 AM)

    At the end of every school year, the Department of Education used to stall in telling families where kids can get free, federally funded summer meals that are available to all, regardless of income. So the City Council passed a law last year requiring the list by June 1.

    It’s done, but the DOE…

  • [NYDN] Trump criticism supports far-right Germans against Angela Merkel
    (Tuesday, June 19, 2018 12:20:00 AM)

    President Trump may be actively trying to alienate the U.S. from ally Germany, and his factually incorrect attacks on the country’s immigration policy have sided with the country’s rising far-right.

    Americans have seen the human face of Trump’s immigration policies as thousands of undocumented…

  • [NYDN] Readers sound off on immigrant kids, Charles Krauthammer and Social Security
    (Tuesday, June 19, 2018 12:00:00 AM)

    Fear and loathing in America

    Staten Island: I truly don’t understand how people with a conscience can back Donald Trump. He is nothing short of a bully. If he doesn’t get his way, he does despicable things and then blames the Democrats. He wanted the wall and he said Mexico would pay; Mexico said…

  • [NYDN] Laura Ingraham suggests migrant child detention centers are ‘essentially summer camps’
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 11:10:00 PM)

    Laura Ingraham followed a disturbing trend late Monday after describing the child detention facilities housing immigrant youth as “essentially summer camps.”

    The Fox News host followed in the footsteps of Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, who essentially dared Congress…

  • [NYDN] Coney Island beach brawl ends with teen stabbed in back, man slashed in face
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 10:05:00 PM)

    A massive brawl on the sand in Coney Island ended with a teenager stabbed in the stomach and back, and a man slashed in the face Monday night.

    Witnesses said dozens of combatants squared off in three or four separate fights on the beach near Stillwell and Surf Aves. at about 7 p.m. When the dust…

  • [NYDN] Clint Frazier’s latest Yankees stint will last a little bit longer
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 9:20:00 PM)

    WASHINGTON — Clint Frazier joked about being the “26th Man of the Year.” But in reality, his latest stint with the Yankees will be for more than just one day.

    Frazier was summoned from Triple-A Scranton prior to Monday’s resumption of a suspended game against the Nationals from May 15, which Washington…

  • [NYDN] Bartolo Colon becomes winningest Dominican-born pitcher with 244th victory
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 9:10:00 PM)

    Bartolo Colon finally reached the milestone he’s been aiming for since 2016.

    Still chucking at the ripe age of 45, the ex-Met picked up his 244th career victory on Monday night, passing Juan Marichal for the most wins by a Dominican-born pitcher.

    A fan favorite during his time in Flushing, Colon…

  • [NYDN] Mazzeo: Giancarlo Stanton’s adjusted stance (which he won’t admit to) pays dividends with 4-for-5 performance in Yankees’ nightcap win
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 9:05:00 PM)

    Giancarlo Stanton appeared to have made an adjustment in his stance — as YES Network clearly showed during a postgame segment the slugger being less closed than usual and more open and upright than before — yet he didn’t want to admit it.

    “No,” a clearly annoyed Stanton said with a sigh. “I didn’t…

  • [NYDN] Late-show hosts blast President Trump’s zero tolerance immigration policy: ‘Why are you locking up kids at an abandoned Walmart?’
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 8:50:00 PM)

    Stephen Colbert and Seth Meyers used their late shows Monday to defend the thousands of children who have been ripped from their families as part of the Trump administration’s zero tolerance policy.

    Speaking directly to Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, who initially denied the existence…

  • [NYDN] Mets offense finally comes through for Jacob deGrom as ace, Brandon Nimmo handle Rockies
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 8:50:00 PM)

    DENVER — Brandon Nimmo was wondering how he could top his Sunday night performance.

    He’d just hit the game-winning home run in a dramatic come-from-behind win over the Diamondbacks, but Monday he was heading into his home territory. He expected dozens of family and friends in the stands at Coors…

  • [NYDN] Woman bashed and bruised in Tribeca bias attack relives horror
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 8:35:00 PM)

    She didn’t think anything of the odd woman who looked like she was dancing on a Manhattan sidewalk in the middle of a workday — until she took one, kapow, right in the face.

    “I was walking down the block and I did see this woman take her arm and swing it all the way back,” the victim of the broad-daylight…

  • [NYDN] Judge rules Kansas cannot require proof of U.S. citizenship to vote
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 8:30:00 PM)

    WICHITA, Kan. — A federal judge ruled Monday that Kansas cannot require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote, finding such laws violate the constitutional right to vote in a ruling with national implications.

    The ruling by U.S. District Judge Julie Robinson is the latest setback…

  • [NYDN] Ex-Knick Nate Robinson says former coach Larry Brown made him cry, referred to him as ‘the little s—t’
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 8:30:00 PM)

    Former Knicks point guard Nate Robinson alleged he suffered emotional abuse at the hands of Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown in an in-depth story published by Bleacher Report Monday.

    Robinson, a rookie at the time, alleges Brown referred to him daily as “the little s—t” throughout their lone season…

  • [NYDN] Chadwick Boseman gives ‘Best Hero’ trophy to Waffle House slaughter-stopper James Shaw Jr. at MTV Movie & TV Awards
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 8:05:00 PM)

    “Black Panther” hero Chadwick Boseman honored a real life hero at the MTV Movie & TV Awards.

    The 40-year-old actor, who won the “Best Hero” award for his role as T’Challa, beat out Grant Gustin (“The Flash”), Daisy Ridley (“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”), Emilia Clarke (“Game of Thrones”) and Gal Gadot…

  • [NYDN] Long Island town voting rules demote Latinos to ‘second class,’ suit claims
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 8:00:00 PM)

    Election rules for one Long Island town relegate Latino residents to “second-class citizens,” according to a newly filed federal lawsuit.

    Though Latino residents account for a third of the people living in the Town of Islip, a Long Island federal suit filed Monday notes there’s never been a Latino…

  • [NYDN] Eight children separated from parents at U.S.-Mexico border shipped to shelter on Long Island
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 7:50:00 PM)

    Eight children torn from their families at the U.S.-Mexico border have been moved to a federal shelter on Long Island — not because they have family there, but because the agency had beds available.

    The children have been staying at MercyFirst, a nonprofit residential services agency run by the…

  • [NYDN] Giancarlo Stanton rebounds as Yankees take down Nationals in nightcap
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 7:20:00 PM)

    WASHINGTON — Aaron Judge to the rescue.

    With two on and two outs in the ninth inning, Judge flagged down a deep drive from Trea Turner to preserve a save for Aroldis Chapman and a 4-2 victory for the Yankees over the Nationals in Game 2 on Monday night at Nationals Park after they lost the continuation…

  • [NYDN] Ex-CIA worker indicted for stealing agency cyberhacking secrets
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 7:00:00 PM)

    A former CIA worker already jailed on child porn charges stands accused by a Manhattan federal grand jury of stealing agency cybersecrets it used to spy overseas.

    Joshua Adam Schulte of Manhattan was charged in a 13-count indictment, officials said Monday.

    Schulte, 29, a Murray Hill resident, was…

  • [NYDN] ‘Othello’ review: Love and jealousy a fatal mix in Shakespeare classic in Central Park
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 7:00:00 PM)

    Green is the color of envy, the toxic stuff that shakes the otherwise steady Venetian general from his moorings in “Othello.” So it’s no fluke that an emerald cape — not his — is seen early in the Public Theater’s free revival running through Sunday at the Delacorte Theater in Central Park.

    But…

  • [NYDN] Judd Apatow calls for Fox stars to speak up against news division over coverage of Trump administration’s zero tolerance immigration policy
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 6:55:00 PM)

    A day after Seth MacFarlane said he was “embarrassed” to work for Fox, Judd Apatow called for the network’s entertainment division to take a stand against its news channel.

    “I haven’t worked with Fox since 2002. That family promotes evil ideas and greed and corruption. We all choose who to work…

  • [NYDN] Texas nonprofit applies to house migrant kids in downtown Houston
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 6:50:00 PM)

    A Texas-based nonprofit is trying to pitch in with housing an out pour of migrant children in sprawling Houston as the Trump administration struggles to find room for all of them.

    Southwest Key Programs, which runs a massive shelter in an old Walmart in Brownsville, has applied to hold more than…

  • [NYDN] De Blasio attacks the Daily News, claiming ‘bad analysis’ of his possible conflict of interest
    (Monday, June 18, 2018 6:45:00 PM)

    Mayor de Blasio attacked the Daily News on Monday, labeling as “bad analysis” the revelation that a law firm he owes $300,000 to lobbied two of his top aides.

    The News reported the firm Kramer Levin pressed Deputy Mayor Alicia Glenn and de Blasio’s appointee as Planning Commission chairwoman, Marisa…

  • 161 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2018.06.19)

    1. Zanzibar

      I’m gonna go on the record on what I think the NYK should do (in order of preference). Note I’m not saying all of these are doable but I’m giving what I’d be willing to offer Grizz and Raptors and, if they didn’t accept, I’d go on to next option on preference list.

      (1) My top 4 in this draft are JJJ-Doncic-Ayton-Bamba in that order. I’d trade-up for any of those guys because they all have decent floors and very high ceilings. Hard to imagine any of them being busts. I would hope a package like #9/#36/THJ/Troy/Baker would be enough but I’d throw in one of Burke and Dotson if forced.

      (2) Trade for Anunoby offering #9-#36-Troy-Baker. We get a fine young player on a nice contract and eliminate the high risk of a bust or mediocre player at #9.

      (3) Trade down to Clips offering #9/#36. Schmitz has a pretty good track record on #10-20 and he likes Walker-Williams-Huerter (doesn’t like Zhaire). I’m gonna trust him here and two may be better than one in mitigating risk of a bust. I’d do it even if Trae, Porter and Bags were available at #9 and indeed that might be the only trade Clips might accept. Those 3 have too high a bust potential imo and, regarding Trae, I think Frank/Burke plus Kyrie in the wings doesn’t justify the bust risk.

      (4) Take Carter-Knox at #9 in that order.

      Note: I like Mikal but both Schmitz and The Stepien throwing shade forces me to abandon him relative to other options.

    2. Zanzibar

      There’s an important facet to any Grizz trade-up decision. I’m convinced that there’s an excellent chance Kyrie would sign with NYK in 2019. He wants to be “the man” on a big stage and a tandem of he and KP at MSG (not to mention Frank guarding the opposing 1) would be enticing to him. He left Bron so he’d walk out on Boston. I listened to the Ringer Kyrie interview and he was as non-committal to Celtics as possible. Wouldn’t you be happy if our starting lineup were Kyrie/Frank/THJ/KP/KOQ and #9 pick, 2019 pick, Burke, Dot, Troy, Kornet off the bench?

      Would we have enough cap to sign Kyrie if we took Parsons contract? I ran the #’s on the Capulator. I’m presuming deal is THJ/Dot/Burke in scenario 1 and Lee/Baker/Dot/Burke in scenario 2.

      Scenario 1: We would have about 16m in free cap if we re-sign KOQ for 8m/yr. The best option to free up enough cap would be to try clear Courtney from the books (e.g., offer the #36 pick to try to get some team to take him into their cap or try to trade him for a player whose contract expires next summer) LINK TO CAPULATOR RESULTS

      Scenario 2: We would only have about 10m in free cap if Grizz want Lee instead of Timmy. Not possible to sign Kyrie unless you’re able to to make some kind of THJ trade and not re-sign KOQ. If you find a team to take THJ into their free cap, you might be able to keep KOQ.

    3. Frank

      For all my optimism about a Memphis trade, there just doesn’t seem to be a trade that I think Memphis would go for. I mean, they KNOW Luka Doncic is highly coveted by a lot of teams. Like Givony said on Zach Lowe’s podcast, the good teams think he’s great, and the bad teams think he’s overrated. (thankfully it’s all bad teams in the lottery! but that could also mean the Knicks think he’s overrated)

      I guess perhaps cap relief + 9 + a lightly protected future pick might be enough + some rotation vets, but probably not.

      I think I’ve come around to the idea that we should be drafting for ceiling with the lottery pick and trusting the development staff to have that pick reach his ceiling. So in spite of all my Mikal Bridges love from before, I suppose I have to trust literally every scout in saying that Mikal’s ceiling is lower than others.

      In that setting, if the potential pick at #9 is one out of MPJ, Trae Young, Wendell Carter, and Kevin Knox, I guess I would rank them:

      1) Trae Young
      2) Knox
      3) MPJ (the back scares me too much – however if the Hospital for Special Surgery docs sign off on the back then I’d put him easily above Knox)
      4) Carter

      and I’d be happy with any of the top 3. Carter still seems like a luxury pick for a team that isn’t in that place yet. KOQ prob is a reasonable projection for Carter – good passer, good rebounder, rim protector, some range on his jump shot, beyond Carter, KOQ is proven and likely relatively cheap – I’d rather just re-sign him than use a lottery pick on Wendell.

      Interesting noise that Shai Alexander seems to be moving up draft boards, even as early as #6 for Orlando, where he would very much fit the traits Orlando’s FO have loved in the past.

    4. TheOakmanCometh

      There is just no reason to re-sign KOQ at anything above a very low-money deal. Yes he had a good season. Yes he’s a fun player. Yes he’s maybe “worth” $8-10 mil AAV in a vaccum.

      But this isn’t a vacuum. The Knicks have three centers on the roster already. If Porzingis is healthy, he should be getting most of his minutes at center. If he’s not healthy, we should be tanking anyway, not paying veteran role players like KOQ to win meaningless games for us.

      This upcoming season will be KOQ’s age 28 season. We’re not going to be anything close to a contender for AT LEAST the next two years, meaning his age 30 season would be the first one where veteran role players become important. He’ll almost certainly be in decline by then. He’s not a guy who keeps himself in tremendous shape. He finally got himself in good shape this year and had a strong season, but he also played only 18 mpg — a career high.

      By the time we need a good backup center, which he is, there will be plenty of other options. Traditional bigs are flooding the market, and the top of the 2018 draft is going to inject a bunch more centers. Guys like Gortat and Vucevic and Dedmon and Monroe and the Lopezes are going to be available for cheap the next couple of years.

      Rebuilding teams should not be blowing their cap space on low-ceiling vets that they don’t need. Offer KOQ $5m AAV, and if he declines, give him a hug and send him off to sign with a team that actually needs him.

    5. Frank

      Who said anything about blowing cap space? Signing good players to value contracts is not blowing cap space. At the very least, those players are excellent trade assets. My point was that we shouldn’t draft a guy who can only play center in the modern NBA.

      I completely agree that assuming KP is the center of the future, we can’t and shouldn’t be committing big cap space or lottery picks to what will be a backup center. I would not give KOQ more than prob the mini-MLE, or maybe max $6MM AAV over 3 years. He obviously wants to be here, grew up in Queens, NYK fan growing up, came to Fizdale’s press conference even though he’ll prob opt out.

      Who knows, maybe he’ll opt in and hit the market in 2019 when there will be more cap space out there.

      btw I would MUCH rather have KOQ than Gortat, Vucevic, Dedmon, and Monroe.

    6. ess-dog

      Yeah, agree on Kyle sadly. It will be interesting to see how Kanter performs this year with a defensive coach (I’m assuming he opts in). If he can improve even just a little, we could resign him at a low price to back up KP.
      It really does make taking Carter seem like a waste, as much as I like him.
      Well, it seems as if at least ONE major trade will happen in the top 5 this year… Should be an interesting draft.

    7. chrisconley

      I haven’t read a single credible piece of information anywhere saying that Knicks management has interest in Doncic. So I’m not even daydreaming about that possibility even if he (1) does fall and (2) MEM is dumb enough to trade down (3) to us.

      After studying up on Knox the past few days I’m petrified. The only things I like are that he’s young and athletic. After watching tape I don’t see anything to get excited about. A poor man’s Tay Prince that can’t play D. The Ringer loves him and keeps talking about the WV game. The highlights are not encouraging at all. He gets fouled at the rim a lot but all his attempts look awkward and weak and that shit will definitely get sent back in the NBA. His shot is smooth but slow. So he’s good at hitting wide open college threes. Dont think that will necessarily translate. And he gets boxed out and outrebounded by smaller dudes. In college. Yes he’s young and these fringe KY guys are hard to predict but last year’s fringe KY guy the Ringer was all in on was Monk. Dodged a bullet there. Of course with good development coaches he might turn out amazing. I definitely see potential, but I think he’s very high risk.

      It seems like this board is warming up to the idea of Knox. Anyone want to make a case in favor so I dont leave Barclays dejected Thurs?

    8. english_knick

      Woj is saying Orlando is between Trae and Sexton, and he thinks they’ll go Sexton. Porter is making out like he has a high promise.

      Those two moving parts are huge.

      If the top five is ayton, Doncic, Bagley, Bamba and JJJ in some order and Orlando takes Sexton, one of Porter, Carter and Trae is there for us.

      If Porter goes top5, does Orlando jack the pg plan and take whoever drops? Then we’re probably back on the obvious 8 being gone before us.

    9. TheOakmanCometh

      Signing good players to value contracts is not blowing cap space. At the very least, those players are excellent trade assets.

      In theory, sure. But even if KOQ is a value contract in a vacuum, what is he actually worth to the current New York Knicks? We aren’t trying to win right now. We have multiple guys who play his position. He’s a role player. He’s going to start declining soon. So even at a value contract, he may not have value to us specifically.

      It’s like buying a gallon of milk just because it’s on sale for $1. That’s a bargain, but if you don’t need milk it’s just a waste of $1.

      I agree with you that KOQ is better than Gortat, Vuc, etc, but not that much better. He’s probably comparable to the Lopezes. The margin between backup centers isn’t that large. Anyway, I mentioned those guys just as examples of the type of guys who will be readily available to us for cheap in the coming summers. I’d rather keep our cap open to sign a star and then settle for the 12th best backup center than tie up cap space now on the 4th best backup center.

    10. Z-man

      @1
      1. I disagree on JJJ, and less so on Ayton. More generally, it depends on what you’d have to give up (obviously a lot for Ayton at #1)
      2. Absolutely not. The reasonable chance of drafting a great player is more valuable than having a good player in the fold. Maybe for the #36 pick and a young player (Dotson?) but that’s it.
      3. Yes, unless Trae or Porter drop, in which case I’d draft them unless I was absolutely sold that Walker (or Knox) was a stud.
      4. I don’t like Carter, so no. Knox? Very tough call, I’d rather trade down for him but if he’s the BPA in Perry’s mind, fine.

    11. Z-man

      @2 If we can trade up w/o giving up KP, Ntilikina, or any #1 picks other than this year’s #9, I’m all for it. If it gets me Doncic, maybe I throw in a top-5 protected future #1.

    12. Frank

      We’re not trying to win right now, but that doesn’t mean we’re not trying to win the year after that and the year after that. Given how little cap space is out there this summer, this summer is actually a good time to selectively give out FA $ and get guys on good contracts. Kanter ideally will be gone this summer, and if not hopefully will be gone the summer after that. Who else do we have at center? Luke Kornet?
      (I like Kornet actually, but to think that he’s ready for actual big NBA minutes seems a bit overoptimistic).

      KOQ is only 28 now. If he signs a 3 year contract we would have him through his age 31 season. I don’t imagine he will regress much during that contract. And he’s actually a really good player! Like a top 20-25 center by RPM, a +3.5 and +4.5 BPM over the last 2 seasons, and a 0.150+ WS/48 guy. If you can get a guy like that for $6MM/year I think you should do it.

      He’s better than Vucevic who is (by all reports since I don’t watch Orlando at all) a total sieve on defense – Vucevic will also likely make a lot more money than KOQ. Gortat is like 50 (60?). The Lopezes are literal dinosaurs (and not like T-Rex, more like brontosauruses in a league of velociraptors) who are 2 years older than KOQ.

    13. Hubert

      I find it bizarre that Ayton is consensus #1 and yet everyone seems to like 4 players in the draft more than him.

    14. Hubert

      We’re not trying to win right now, but that doesn’t mean we’re not trying to win the year after that and the year after that. Given how little cap space is out there this summer, this summer is actually a good time to selectively give out FA $ and get guys on good contracts. Kanter ideally will be gone this summer, and if not hopefully will be gone the summer after that. Who else do we have at center? Luke Kornet?
      (I like Kornet actually, but to think that he’s ready for actual big NBA minutes seems a bit overoptimistic).

      KOQ is only 28 now. If he signs a 3 year contract we would have him through his age 31 season. I don’t imagine he will regress much during that contract. And he’s actually a really good player! Like a top 20-25 center by RPM, a +3.5 and +4.5 BPM over the last 2 seasons, and a 0.150+ WS/48 guy. If you can get a guy like that for $6MM/year I think you should do it.

      Agree with all this. Kyle O’Quinn is good and any time you can sign a good player for less than his market value, it’s probably a good idea. It’s entirely conceivable that we’re good in 2020/21 and we’d have a useful center making $7mm in the last year of his deal.

    15. Farfa

      I think Ayton’s is probably a case of “no-brainer pick”. Nobody will criticize McDonough if he picks him first (even if Ayton will be a bust), everyone would criticize him if he took Carter or JJJ and they busted out of the league. Then again, I have no idea why Doncic isn’t the clear cut #1.

    16. DRed

      There’s a lot to like about Ayton-he’s huge, he’s mobile, he scored efficiently at good volume, he dominated the glass at both ends, he passes well for a big man, he played big minutes, he can shoot and he’s a better shot blocker than people seem to think (he’s okay, he’s not terrible).

    17. chrisk06811

      I like the optimism, but the guys you want to trade (THJ, Dotson, Baker) are not players that anyone actually wants. Maybe thrown in to make a Parsons dump work, but not anywhere else.

    18. Zanzibar

      Weird how GSW played Zaza, Bell, Looney, West, McGee about 5000 minutes? And they cut Omri so they could keep another big for the playoffs? And that they had any interest KOQ at the deadline?

      How about Knicks just focus on getting productive players? If they had KP/KOQ/Carter, that could be 96 minutes of above average production at the 4/5. You need guys who are able to set picks and I’m not sure KP will ever be able to do that effectively. I’m not sure KP’s body and stamina would hold up playing the 5 for more than a brief period. And he may need 3 more years before he’s ready to play center.

      KOQ is a starting level center. The stats and the eye test support that. He’s much better than those guys you mentioned not just a bit better. His bpm over their entire careers is at least twice as high as all of them. And the gap is even greater looking at last season:
      LINK TO LAST SEASON STATS: BPM of 4.5 compared to .5, .3, .8, 2.7

    19. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, and one of the Bridges are going to lead us to the promised land"

      I’m all for keeping KOQ as long as the deal is fair to attractive. Everyone on the team doesn’t have to be 19-22 years old. If things change, we can always trade a fair contract.

    20. danvt

      What about CLE signing and trading LBJ to OKC for Carmelo?

      LeBron, Westbrook, Adams + shooters / defenders…?

      CLE goes in full tank mode. Melo gets as many shots as he wants and goes away in a year…

      What do you guys think?

    21. rama, king of superfluous poppycock

      Statistical analysis is almost tailor made for players like KOQ. He does a lot to help the team win, but some people can’t see it because he isn’t played a lot and makes at least one dumb play each game. And because he was never perceived as a star, not drafted high.

      But he is in fact a great player, well-above replacement, who is EXACTLY who you should be signing to a value contract if you can get it.

    22. Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada

      To join the chorus, I think we should resign KOQ even if that hurts our short term tanking position. I really think he’s in the David West mold where he’ll be able to be an effective player well into his 30s because his game is not at all predicated on athleticism. Having him on this team for the next 3-8 years could only be a good thing, assuming the price is right.

    23. kevin5318

      I really think he’s in the David West mold where he’ll be able to be an effective player well into his 30s because his game is not at all predicated on athleticism.

      Agreed. Players like KOQ will be useful well into their 30’s barring serious injury.

    24. "Out Fearing!"

      What about CLE signing and trading LBJ to OKC for Carmelo?

      LeBron and Melo are big friends, LBJ wouldn’t do that.

      I think there’s NO CHANCE AT ALL that Trae falls to the Knicks. If he’s available at 8, Cleveland will pick him. If they lose James, they have their playmaker for the future; if he stays, they add a much necessary secondary ballhandler. It will be like that unless someone with more upside, like Bamba (or even MPJ), is there for the get.

    25. Hubert

      All this optimistic talk about trading with Memphis has made me get unrealistic expectations. I need to go back to mentally preparing myself for Collin Sexton so I won’t be disappointed.

    26. GianaDani

      According to experts, its the deepest draft since probably 2003 and there could be 2 hall of fame players in 1-5 and another all-star after that. If this holds to be true, (2 out of 5 – or 40% odds) than this is the time to take a chance, move up and swing for fences.

      At number 9, the odds of picking an all-star are probably 10% or less this year. That ~30% spread risk price is dirt cheap, if all we have to do is pay Chandler $49M to come off the bench for two years (irrelevant to fans – other people’s money) and give up a ~7% shot (protected top 5 on a much weaker draft) next year.

      I’d send Kanter, a fill in, cash, #9, and top 5 protected next year. In two years, we should have two-all stars, 6th man of the year in THjr, and a TON of cap space. Top free agents will be kicking Perry’s door down.

    27. 2FOR18, understands math

      I love O’Quinn, but I wouldn’t re-sign him simply because he will add wins to next season’s team, which should be a full tank mode/develop the kids season with no KP. Without O’Quinn and Jack last season we’d be looking at a legit shot to get Doncic right now. This 30 win shit has to stop.

    28. Frank

      Re: Sexton – listening to Givony/Schmitz/Sam Vecenie etc. — they all really like him. Weaknesses are tunnel vision at times but they love his competitive nature and physical traits.

      I just think that unless you can get a super high ceiling guy like Trae Young, the best play is to see what Frank can do as the starting PG. If he can be average on offense, that makes so many problems go away including our glut at the SG position, as well as finally having a great perimeter defender for once. If he really has grown and is 6’6″ with prob +7 wingspan by report, he’ll be infinitely switchable in addition to being great on the ball.

    29. mase

      If you were KOQ and you knew gs wanted you would you re sign with the knicks?

      Moving up on the draft is such a hard thing to accomplish. I would prefer to move down for the clips picks. I’m sure they have some salary they want to dump

    30. Bruno Almeida

      @7

      You hit the nail on why I’m scared about Knox. For someone with such athleticism, every highlight I’ve seen of him is him driving awkwardly and finishing with a weak one handed floater in traffic that’s getting swatted to oblivion in the NBA. I just can’t see anything on the numbers or the tape I’ve watched that gives me hope, maybe I’m completely wrong but still.

      I’m all for re-signing KOQ and even though I’m open to the possibility of pursuing Kyrie Irving eventually if his knees don’t turn into noodles, I don’t think a chance at a free agent in 2019 should stop us from simply making the correct move in re-signing O’Quinn for a decent contract. It’s been shown for a while that it is possible to dump salary quickly if a team really wants it, so let’s not make a dumb decision to keep an option that might not even open up in the future. If we let guys like KOQ go to have a chance at Kyrie then Kyrie turns around and goes somewhere else, it’s another LBJ – Amare scenario all over again.

    31. Frank

      If you were KOQ and you knew gs wanted you would you re sign with the knicks?

      Prob would have to take a pretty significant pay cut to go to GS. They are in repeater tax hell and they have wing depth issues in addition to wanting someone like KOQ. The taxpayer MLE is 5.3MM total this year and I would assume that KOQ would not get the whole thing if he went to GS. That’d be a pretty big discount for a guy who hasn’t gotten a fat payday yet in the NBA (relatively speaking of course for us regular working schmoes!)

    32. Donnie Walsh

      If you were KOQ and you knew gs wanted you would you re sign with the knicks?

      I feel like GS would prefer Amir Johnson, who’s a little more versatile and experienced (50 career playoff games vs 0 career playoff games) than KOQ for what would probably be comparable dollars.

    33. swiftandabundant

      I’ve warmed up to the idea of Knox a bit but if he is the guy they’re targeting, hopefully they figure a way to do a trade down (even with the 10 spot or with the Clips to get both their picks). If he’s truly the guy we’re targeting I’m cool with that but we need to use the fact that he’s typically projected to go lower as a way to extract another asset out of one of the teams picking right after us.

      Here’s why I’ve warmed up to Knox. 1) Physical measurements. Knox has the body to be a 3 or a 4. Kid looks big and he’s only 18 which is point 2) He’s the youngest player in the draft. I mean, we talk about swinging for the fences on this site all the time and we talk about how the Knicks truly should be rebuilding. Mikal Bridges is a “win now” pick. Miles less so but Knox truly is the high ceiling wing prospect out there and if he’s a few years away from being decent…well isn’t that ok? If we throw him into the fire next year and he looks awful and we lose games because of it…if it doesn’t destroy his confidence isn’t that actually a good thing? 3) There are a lot of reports out there, from Callipari himself…that they played Knox out of position at SG a lot of times. I know this is true because I am a huge UK basketball fan and Knox was one of their only credible 3 point shooters last year. So he played that SG slot (replacing Monk). So yeah, he might have looked more awkward or whatever bc he was playing the wrong position.

      Again, my ideal for drafting Knox would be to trade down. I mean, Knox and Sexton are generally derided on this site but if we got them both with the Clips 12 and 13 (which again I don’t think will happen)…I would be pretty excited about that.

      And man, I would just really find it funny if in 5 years those 2 are the best from this class after how much people on this site have bashed them.

    34. Frank

      Miles Bridges has had very little buzz during this predraft process. I wonder whether it’s because he has a promise, or whether he just hasn’t been great. An article from SI said he might drop all the way out of the lottery.

      Knox, on the other hand, has had tons of buzz. If we really think he’s the pick, I don’t think trading down is a good idea – might be gone.

    35. TheOakmanCometh

      But are we really going to be crying over losing KOQ? The guy averages 15 mpg for his career and has never surpassed 18 mpg. As Zing transitions to center he’ll be squeezed even more. Worse, having him around might encourage the Knicks to play Zing at the 4, which is a bad outcome.

      KOQ is good. I like him a lot. He’s just not a major difference maker given the limited minutes he’ll play and the fact that traditional bigs are being phased out of the league. I would rather keep our cap space open for a chance to sign a max free agent and then sign a backup center who is 75% as good as KOQ than lock up KOQ now and surrender the chance at a star.

      It is not accurate to say that we can just salary dump him whenever we want. Teams are not lining up to trade for older backup big men with multiple years on their contracts. The only centers who were traded during the 2017/18 season who did not have expiring contracts were Asik (packaged with a 1st rounder for Mirotic) and Boban (salary filler in the massive Blake Griffin trade). The Knicks explored trades for KOQ each of the last two seasons and found no takers.

    36. rama, king of superfluous poppycock

      I would just really find it funny if in 5 years those 2 are the best from this class

      They won’t be. Not even close. I mean, no chance. Zip.

    37. rama, king of superfluous poppycock

      The guy averages 15 mpg for his career and has never surpassed 18 mpg.

      Gee, I wonder why that is? Could it be because…he averages something like 18 minutes per game? So…he averages something like 1 point per minute…and if he played 35 minutes, would average more like 30 points per game?

      Are you really using points per game to make your argument?

    38. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      If Mikal Bridges is successful in the NBA it will be because his offense carries him. People love Mikal Bridges’ stats, and there’s a lot to like about them, but I have not been afraid to document my reservations about him:

      1) He more of a 3-2 than a 3-4 considering his height/weight combination, and that’s tough because he doesn’t handle the ball well enough to spend significant time at the two. He also doesn’t have the quickness to keep up with guards defensively.

      2) Despite elite shooting stats his form is odd and I wonder whether or not he will be able to shoot at the same volume against NBA defenders. Iman Shumpert is a replacement level player and he would give Bridges fits all night.

      3) He is not a lockdown defender in traditional terms. He’s great in ball denial situations, he’ll make plays in team defense, but he’s not going to be a guy who muscles up and flat out stops you like a Marcus Smart, Kawhi Leonard, or even a Frank Ntilikina. Bridges just doesn’t have the lateral quickness to get to a spot before a guy and that means foul trouble in the NBA.

      4) He cannot create his own offense, and while that won’t show up in the regular season, it will damn sure show up when playoff teams cut off Porzingis and force Mikal Bridges to beat them off the dribble.

      Now, there’s a chance Mikal Bridges is an elite 3 point shooter and excellent team defender. The guy might be the next Reggie Miller, and I’d love to have that kind of a talent in today’s league. I just don’t watch his film and see a guy that I’m willing to jump out to window with, and I’ve studied him more than every other prospect in the draft.

      Gun to my head he’s the pick at 9, but I would be looking long and hard at Kevin Knox.

    39. ClashFan

      Regarding OQ, we still don’t yet know the plan the Knicks front office has. Have they really moved to the idea of a long (3-4 years at least?) build. If so, then that would explain the supposed interested in Knox. If the Knicks end up taking him, then they should let OQ walk and really tank hard this next season so that, in 2019, the starters include KP, Frank, Knox, and the 2019 high #1 pick.

      If they dream of going after a big name FA (KI?) in 2019 or 2020, then they should try to bring OQ back at a reasonable amount.

      Of course, if OQ really loves NY that much, he could just opt in for another year…

      Seems nearly daily the draft rumors change. Now Trae is falling, maybe all the way to the Knicks, and Sexton moving up. I guess the whole draft will hinge on what happens with MPJ. Does he go in the top 4-5, or fall b/c of his potentially bad back?

    40. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      Today, I’d mock the draft to look like this:

      1) Ayton
      2) Bagley
      3) Bamba
      4) Doncic
      5) Jackson Jr
      6) Young
      7) Porter Jr
      8) Carter Jr
      9) Knox
      10)Your Favorite Bridges
      11) The other one
      12) Lonnie Walker
      13) Kevin Knox
      14) Zhaire Smith

    41. Donnie Walsh

      According to experts, its the deepest draft since probably 2003 and there could be 2 hall of fame players in 1-5 and another all-star after that. If this holds to be true, (2 out of 5 – or 40% odds) than this is the time to take a chance, move up and swing for fences.

      I’m not sure who these experts are, but there’s a lot of data to suggest that this stuff can’t really be predicted by anybody with very much accuracy.

      For example, did you know that the #9 pick has produced the 3rd most number of all star players since the draft went to its modern format in 1989?

      Pick#1 = 17
      Pick#3 = 15
      Pick#9 = 11
      Pick#2 = 9
      Pick #5 = 9

      Outside of the #1 pick, there is historically very little difference between picking anywhere in the top ten when it comes to producing all stars, Hall is famers, useful role players, or total duds.

    42. ClashFan

      @40
      Sexton falling totally out of the top 14? I know that Atlanta is mocked to go with Bamba at 4, but will they really pass on Doncic? They are silly if they do.

      Another thing about the Knicks…if they do covet and end up taking Knox, they need to fix the leak. Stuff like that should not get out. If the Knox stuff is just subterfuge or a bad read by a beat writer, then okay.

    43. ClashFan

      @41
      I don’t know. Looks to me like it is very important to get into the top 3. From 4-9 maybe not so big of a deal?

    44. english_knick

      @14 and others on the ‘it’s good to give out reasonable contracts’ line. In a vacuum, and in some real world scenarios, true. But in our scenario, I say not true. I don’t want to rehash the whole opportunity cost thing – though it might be easier now Reub is gone – but that cap space has inherent value and you should use it optimally for your circumstances.

      In our case, we should be loading up on cost controlled players with upside and hoarding space for players who move the needle from ‘good’ (when we get there) to ‘very Good’. Not from ‘20-win laughing stock’ to ‘30-win launching stock’.

      I love KOQ but he can have a one year deal or a minimum deal from me, or my best wishes as he latches on to a winning team.

      Did you know Boston has no salaries between $6m and $20m? Rookie scale deals and all stars. That’s what they have.

    45. ess-dog

      I can’t see Trae and Porter getting past Chicago and Cleveland unless something absurd happens like Mikal or Sexton goes at 5 or 6. It seems likely that we could be forced into taking Carter or else one of the other guys we’re linked to. I’d still probably take Carter and work out the rest later. Maybe KP will come back and be terrible? Maybe he will be fine? Maybe Carter will lose 20 lbs and will guard the perimeter better than anyone? It’s hard to say. That’s why I think you have to go BPA at 9 and that, to me, is Carter.

    46. domiknick

      @40, Knox’s stock is rising so much they cloned him and he’s being drafted at #9 AND #13. But will their careers be identical or differ? The ultimate nature vs nurture experiment.

    47. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      @47 LOL I didn’t see that. Knox at #9 and then Sexton at 12, Walker at 13.

    48. DRed

      If we’re deciding to take one of the wings, Mikal was by a healthy margin the best college player. But if you think he’s too old, take Miles. Hes athletic, has shown a broad base of skills, and he was a good player in college. Knox is just young and I guess he’s tall.

    49. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      Did you know Boston has no salaries between $6m and $20m? Rookie scale deals and all stars. That’s what they have.

      Even a broken clock is right twice a day, am I right guys?

    50. lavor postell

      Did you know Boston has no salaries between $6m and $20m? Rookie scale deals and all stars. That’s what they have.

      They had Crowder, Bradley and IT making around 8m/yr last year then used them as valuable trade chips.

    51. Bruno Almeida

      @51

      But those were actually valuable players. Is O’Quinn as valuable? I just don’t see the league perceiving his value the way we do.

      Even then, Boston essentially traded away Bradley for Morris who’s a fringe player, then had to package both IT and Crowder, who were at an all time value coming off exceptional seasons with the Nets pick to get Kyrie.

      I like O’Quinn and would like to see him remain a Knick simply because I don’t trust the front office to rebuild anyway, so it’s better to keep the good player. But in a vacuum, teams like the Knicks should not be keeping guys like O’Quinn for 8-10 million a year.

    52. Frank

      I think KOQ could/would come back for anything near/above the taxpayer MLE (~5.5MM starting)
      No way would i give him full MLE (8.5 MM) money. That should be reserved for guys you expect to start and/or at least play 25+ minutes/game.

    53. TheOakmanCometh

      Are you really using points per game to make your argument?

      rama, please read what I wrote. I said mpg, not ppg.

    54. ClashFan

      @49

      If we’re deciding to take one of the wings, Mikal was by a healthy margin the best college player. But if you think he’s too old, take Miles. Hes athletic, has shown a broad base of skills, and he was a good player in college. Knox is just young and I guess he’s tall.

      I wonder if Mills is still so smitten over his big signing last year, THJ, that he’s prioritizing a 4 over a 3? Thus the interest in Knox. If they are thinking about Frank as a 2 and THJ as the 3…

    55. Frank

      DX/ESPN’s most recent mock has us taking Knox over Trae Young.
      That feels like a mistake.

      hard to know given all the buzz Knox has gotten. Certainly physical attributes for Knox are better but man, I would be really tempted to draft Trae Young.

    56. english_knick

      @51 – agree that’s a good point and I’m not saying everyone should go to the current Boston extreme. My point is if KOQ is commanding 6-8m per then right now in our development we’re better hold No that space to accrue other cost-controlled assets or to save it for bigger fish later. The ‘it alsways makes sense to sign fair value deals’ argument doesn’t work for me.

      @51 – jowles, what’s your point?

    57. airkent

      After watching the playoffs and finals I think its pretty clear that you need players that can target mismatches or defend multiple positions. Obviously you want guys that can do both but those are the true unicorns maybe only 7 or 8 guys in the league that can do that.

      That’s why people are enamored with the Bagleys, Konxes and MPJs. With the way teams are playing defense and switching you need guys who can punish the hills, hardens, currys and irvings at the highest levels of basketball.

      Theoretically the guys above would be able to switch on those counterparts also mentioned and not get destroyed…. Maybe none of them can score efficiently enough and/or defend adequately enough to matter but that’s where your scouts come in and pick.

    58. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      Latest news at the top of the draft:

      – Bagley over Doncic at 2 is for real.
      – Bamba told Memphis not to draft him.
      -MPjr’s floor is Cleveland

    59. DRed

      Taking Bagley and Ayton over Doncic is pretty dumb. I guess we’ll find out if Atlanta’s front office is competent.

    60. Hubert

      @14 and others on the ‘it’s good to give out reasonable contracts’ line. In a vacuum, and in some real world scenarios, true. But in our scenario, I say not true. I don’t want to rehash the whole opportunity cost thing – though it might be easier now Reub is gone – but that cap space has inherent value and you should use it optimally for your circumstances.

      In our case, we should be loading up on cost controlled players with upside and hoarding space for players who move the needle from ‘good’ (when we get there) to ‘very Good’. Not from ‘20-win laughing stock’ to ‘30-win launching stock’.

      You’re focused on age only. If you can get Kyle O’Quinn for 3-4 years at ~$6mm AAV, you’re adding a cost-controlled player just like you would if you drafted one.

      The point isn’t to get draft picks. It’s to get players who outperform their contracts. You’re most likely to get that from a draft pick, but a 28 year old can outperform his contract just as much as a 20 year old.

      I don’t think Kyle is going to add ten wins to our tally next year. We can suck just fine with him on the side. Or we can give him the Robin Lopez treatment.

    61. Frank

      Latest news at the top of the draft:

      – Bagley over Doncic at 2 is for real.
      – Bamba told Memphis not to draft him.
      -MPjr’s floor is Cleveland

      Source(s)?

    62. ClashFan

      Crap. Now a report that the Wiz are willing to trade the 15th pick for cap relief. They supposedly want to unload an expiring, either Morris or Gortat. If only the Knicks had the space and the willingness to use it that way.

      Also, The Sporting News reporting that the Sixers are trying to move into the top 5.

    63. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      Ayton and Bagley over Doncic isn’t dumb at all. I know, Doncic is the greatest European prospect of all time and his accolades trump anything anyone has done before him, but the fact of the matter is he does not present a team with the opportunity to physically dominate the opposing line up. DeAndre Ayton is a more athletic version of Karl Anthony Towns, and I’d take the actual Karl Towns over Doncic. Bagley and Ayton were 20 and 10 players in Division 1 college basketball as freshmen, posted great efficiency numbers, have the ability to shoot the three, and are athletic specimens. If Ayton is Towns 2.0, Bagley is Bosh 2.0, and Doncic is Harden, was it really stupid to take Bagley and Ayton over Doncic?

      Doncic is an amazing prospect, but I see both sides of the coin. If I were picking first there’s no way I take Doncic over Ayton, but I’d take Doncic over Bagley. You just cannot teach 7’1” 250 and like zero percent body fat. Ayton will be one of the 5 best athletes in the league until he’s 30.

    64. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, and one of the Bridges are going to lead us to the promised land"

      @58

      I agree with the “theory” behind what you are saying, but one of the things I am worried about with Knox is defense. He doesn’t seem quick enough on his feet to defend smaller guys. He may become a target himself.

    65. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      @62 my phone’s Bleacher Report app. ESPN is reporting Bagley over Doncic, Cleveland.com is reporting Porter Jr won’t get below 8, and ESPN is also reporting the Bamba story.

    66. Hubert

      After watching the playoffs and finals I think its pretty clear that you need players that can target mismatches or defend multiple positions. Obviously you want guys that can do both but those are the true unicorns maybe only 7 or 8 guys in the league that can do that.

      That’s why people are enamored with the Bagleys, Konxes and MPJs. With the way teams are playing defense and switching you need guys who can punish the hills, hardens, currys and irvings at the highest levels of basketball.

      Theoretically the guys above would be able to switch on those counterparts also mentioned and not get destroyed…. Maybe none of them can score efficiently enough and/or defend adequately enough to matter but that’s where your scouts come in and pick.

      It really is an interesting time in the NBA. It feels like the Warriors took us somewhere new. There’s two levels now: what works up until the second round of the playoffs, and what works when the real season starts. Not everyone has caught up to it yet. Maybe it will go away when the Warriors fall apart, but I doubt it.

    67. Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada

      Ayton is wayyyyyy worse a prospect than Towns was. And Doncic is a superior prospect to Towns. No objective evaluation of Ayton’s play makes a compelling case for him over Doncic–the only justification is wishcasting about “theoretical upside”. It’s not even close. “Physical domination” matters less than it ever did in the NBA, and has always mattered less than actual basketball skills like dribbling, passing, shooting, and rebounding, all of which Doncic can do without negatively impacting your defense to the degree that Ayton or Bagley would.

      Ayton is a LaMarcus Aldridge that can jump, but can’t play any D.

    68. TheOakmanCometh

      Do you realize that in 2018-19, the Knicks may have only two players who perform up to their contracts? KOQ and Burke — that’s it. Kanter, Noah, THJ, Lee, Lance, Baker, and Mudiay almost certainly will not. Zing could miss most of the season. Frank, Dotson, the #9 pick, and the #36 pick are wild cards.

      It explains why we’re bad and capped out at the same time.

    69. Brian Cronin

      For example, did you know that the #9 pick has produced the 3rd most number of all star players since the draft went to its modern format in 1989?

      Pick#1 = 17
      Pick#3 = 15
      Pick#9 = 11
      Pick#2 = 9
      Pick #5 = 9

      Outside of the #1 pick, there is historically very little difference between picking anywhere in the top ten when it comes to producing all stars, Hall is famers, useful role players, or total duds.

      I dunno, that sure seems to suggest the standard “Best to be picking in the top five” canard. When five of the top six results are from the top five, it sure seems legit to say that picking in the top five is very important.

    70. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      This “DeAndre Ayton can’t play defense” is about as asinine as it gets, honestly. So he’s not the elite rim protector that you want, but he’s a solid enough defender that he won’t Kanter you into oblivion. But I’m done talking about him; we’re not drafting him and he’ll be tearing up the Western Conference for the next twelve years.

    71. JK47

      Ayton is going #1 because:
      1. He played at Arizona, and the Suns are in Phoenix
      2 .The Suns are dumb

    72. JK47

      I don’t think Ayton is a bad prospect, and I expect him to be a pretty good player. I think some of his defensive issues are overstated and fixable.

      Still not a better prospect than Doncic.

    73. Hubert

      ESPN (Givony) has Young falling to 12! He has SGA and Sexton going ahead of him (to Cleveland and Charlotte), and us taking Knox.

      FWIW, he’s one of those guys whose mocks are definitely based on what he’s hearing, not what he thinks should happen.

    74. Bruno Almeida

      @70

      I mean, do we still need evidence to conclude that? Are we still pushing this agenda to make ourselves feel a little better after botching another season and coming up with the absolute least desirable scenario once again?

      I still can’t understand it.

    75. rama, king of superfluous poppycock

      Oakman, I read too quickly. My apologies.

      The point isn’t to get draft picks. It’s to get players who outperform their contracts.

      This, however, is still the point. That’s the only way to build a successful team. It’s a combination of factors, and signing players who aren’t valued properly is one of them.

    76. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      The ability to physically overwhelm grown men will always be relevant in sports, and that is why Ayton is going to be the #1 pick. Doncic is easily the most accomplished pro prospect in NBA history, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to go on and be the greatest NBA player who ever lived.

    77. rama, king of superfluous poppycock

      Also, Frank is on a rookie deal, so will almost certainly play up to his contract (and Dotson, too, second round money). Lee, FWIW, generally plays up to his contract – average in every way. We need to get rid of him, since he adds wins with no upside and no future. KOQ will at least still be what he is in 2 years, when it may help (if we don’t pick Knox).

    78. Donnie Walsh

      The ability to physically overwhelm grown men will always be relevant in sports, and that is why Ayton is going to be the #1 pick.

      I don’t know, I feel like I’ve heard all this before. Thabeet was a perfect physical specimen. Calhoun called him one of the most physically dominant players in the history of college basketball. His draft profile is ridiculous. And yet he failed to make any impact in the league, despite being healthy and having a strong work ethic and outgoing personality.

      Thabeet killed it for me when it comes to tall, strong, athletic lotto picks that still need to “develop the basics”. The league has changed.

    79. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, and one of the Bridges are going to lead us to the promised land"

      @70

      The sample sizes are too small to conclude much other than picking higher is better than picking lower but most people overestimate the actual advantage. Some teams “may” have more ability, but those samples are too small also.

    80. Zanzibar

      So it looks like Bamba and maybe Doncic don’t want to play for Grizz and Porter refuses to give them his medical records. Ayton and JJJ could be gone and they may have no strong interest in Bags, Trae or anyone else. Perhaps that’s part of why they’re looking to trade down. One of the things we could offer in any Memphis deal would be to route McLemore’s 5m (1 year left) and our #36 to a team that’s got free cap. McLemore hasn’t been very good and the Grizz might want to stay away from luxury tax and minimize costs while making a playoffs push. So if they like Timmy they wouldn’t need McLemore and they could use that money to try to re-sign Tyreke with MLE.

      We also could offer 2018 #9 pick and a 2019 protected pick. Other teams might not have both 2018 and 2019 picks to offer. We also have guys like Burke/Dotson/Troy/Baker who could deepen their bench. In other words, we’ve got a smorgasbord of stuff to offer. The real question would be how much should we offer depending on who’s available at #4. For example, would the cult of Luka crowd here at KB be willing to give #9, #36, Timmy and 2019 pick unprotected for #4 and Parsons if Doncic were available?

    81. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      Since when does DeAndre Ayton need to develop the basics? He was unstoppable this season in the PAC 12. He already has post moves, he already has a jumper from the 3 point line and down, he’s already a beast on the glass, he can shoot free throws, he blocks 2.3 shots per 40 which ain’t great but it’s respectable, and he has a grown man’s body. He was the PAC-12 Player of the Year and got paid $100K to play for the University of Arizona. I think he’s a can’t miss prospect.

      When it comes to Ayton and Doncic, I think you’re looking at two surefire franchise cornerstone types. I have more questions about Bagley, Bamba, Trae Young, Jaren Jackson Jr and Michael Porter Jr, but those guys all have high ceilings but don’t come with the same level of safety that Ayton and Doncic provide. Ayton is already a guy you give the ball and just get out of the way, and doesn’t really have the same off court red flags that a guy like Mike Beasley, the GOAT sports reference page, come with. I’d pick Ayton and sleep well knowing I’m not getting fired.

    82. Brian Cronin

      . For example, would the cult of Luka crowd here at KB be willing to give #9, #36, Timmy and 2019 pick unprotected for #4 and Parsons if Doncic were available?

      I don’t think that the Knicks should be giving up unprotected first rounders for anyone outside of, well, you know, like Lebron or Kevin Durant. Now, loose protections on the 2019, I can live with.

    83. Brian Cronin

      The sample sizes are too small to conclude much other than picking higher is better than picking lower but most people overestimate the actual advantage. Some teams “may” have more ability, but those samples are too small also.

      I’m pretty sure you could expand it to “entire NBA Draft history” and the numbers would likely remain generally the same – the vast majority of the top talent comes at the top of the draft (counting territorial picks as “top of the draft,” of course), which also just makes logical sense, right?

    84. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, and one of the Bridges are going to lead us to the promised land"

      I’m pretty sure you could expand it to “entire NBA Draft history” and the numbers would likely remain generally the same – the vast majority of the top talent comes at the top of the draft (counting territorial picks as “top of the draft,” of course), which is just logic.

      I don’t have the data, but you’d certainly see the trend even there were some odd results. It might be a good idea to combine picks and increase the sample sizes. You could do something like 1-3, 4-6, 7-9 etc… That might make it smoother. The other complications are that formerly teams were mostly drafting 22 year old players and had more data and development to evaluate. That increased accuracy over drafting 19 years old. On the flip side, we probably have better data on athleticism and stats now.

    85. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      I don’t have the data, but you’d certainly see the trend

      define: Knickerblogger

    86. english_knick

      I love Doncic, but 9 and an unprotected first in a year where we know for certain we’ll suck ass? As in, potentially 9, next year’s 1, and take on Parsons? If we offered that the Grizz should bite our arm off.

    87. Bruno Almeida

      This argument is simply not very useful because it doesn’t account for the team making the picks. A guy who went 9th in a specific draft could have gone 5th or 7th if the draft order was different. Saying x players drafted 9th eventually went on to be all stars means nothing because those positions are not set in stone, it’s many front offices making decisions that are frankly impossible to account for statistically unless we had access to every team big board every year. It paints a somewhat general picture that talent is available past the absolute top picks but the decision process involved is so inaccessible for analysis that it matters very little to understand how future drafts will work out.

      If David Kahn was rational or if a better managed team was in the same position Curry would have been drafted 5th, for example, he was never the 7th highest rated player in that particular draft. Or he could have dropped even more if another team picked instead of Golden State. How can we account for stupidity or shrewdness amongst front offices?

    88. JK47

      I really hope we’re not passing on Trae Young because we already have our point guard of the future, Frank “Not A Point Guard” Ntilikina

    89. Zanzibar

      I love Doncic, but 9 and an unprotected first in a year where we know for certain we’ll suck ass? As in, potentially 9, next year’s 1, and take on Parsons? If we offered that the Grizz should bite our arm off.

      I don’t think that the Knicks should be giving up unprotected first rounders for anyone outside of, well, you know, like Lebron or Kevin Durant. Now, loose protections on the 2019, I can live with.

      Isn’t that somewhat illogical? If you believe there’s a 75% chance Doncic will be an NBA all-star wouldn’t the #9 pick plus a #5 pick next year in a projected weak draft be getting him cheap?

      @Silky A few days ago when I was touting JJJ’s BPM you mentioned that Doncic’s BPM would be astronomical. Someone on the ABPR site calculated it at 7.63 and compared it to other Euroleague players. Even if you were to adjust for Euroleague being stronger than NCAA that doesn’t seem so high to me (JJJ at 15.4 bpm). Comments since you’re into this stuff? LINK

    90. djphan

      2.3 blks per 40 is historically low for a lotto big… the last lotto big with that low of a blk rate and who also ‘dominated’ college ball… was jahlil okafor…

      you’re not dominant unless you’re dominant on both sides of the ball…. and 2.3 is ‘sufficient’ for college ball… but in the pro’s it winds up translating to a lot less…. and what that starts looking like is a defensive liability…

    91. nicos

      Givony was on the Lowe podcast and said the that Young had a poor workout with the Knicks and he thought they’d pick Sexton over Young but that Knox was probably going to be the choice. He also described Knox as “oozing with talent” for whatever that’s worth.

    92. english_knick

      @90 – I guess my issues are a) future drafts often seem weaker until they get closer, b) we’re going to be really bad so if unprotected it could definitely be a better pick than 5, and c) I think 75% is on the high side if we mean genuine multi-year all star.

      But people on this site are bringing me round to maybe accepting top-5 protected being included (in a deal, by the way, that I think has no chance of happening). I’d prefer top 10, dropping to top 5 the next year.

    93. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      If you can’t see the difference between Jahlil Okafor and DeAndre Ayton then there is nothing to tell you bro.

    94. JK47

      I have a bad feeling about this draft. In fact I have dread about it. The Knicks are going to draft somebody wack, I can just feel it in my bones.

      I have the clip of Wee-Bey saying “the Knicks done fucked up they draft again” all cued up.

    95. Brian Cronin

      @90 – I guess my issues are a) future drafts often seem weaker until they get closer, b) we’re going to be really bad so if unprotected it could definitely be a better pick than 5, and c) I think 75% is on the high side if we mean genuine multi-year all star.

      But people on this site are bringing me round to maybe accepting top-5 protected being included (in a deal, by the way, that I think has no chance of happening). I’d prefer top 10, dropping to top 5 the next year.

      Yeah, I’d be willing to do loose protections, like top 5.

    96. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      Doncic and Real Madrid won the ACB Finals today. Doncic had 8 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assists.

    97. Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada

      @90

      Can you send me the link to the thread? It’s cool stuff and I’ll respond more fully soon. To clarify though I’m not anti JJJr. Hes probably my 3rd favorite prospect in the draft, depending on how I feel about Trae Young that day.

    98. thenoblefacehumper

      Serious question: how much precedent is there for players like Knox and Walker succeeding? More specifically, how many players that statistically demonstrate exactly zero and plus skills in college go on to be above average NBA players?

      I’m aware it has happened, but it sure does seem so god damn rare that it’d be insane for a talent strapped franchise to bet on it with a lottery pick.

    99. chrisk06811

      so….here’s a question. everyone knows we are going to suck next year. So, would you trade for us if we included our 2019 1st round pick, but it was protected? I’d say top 5 protected…..there’s a 75% chance you’re not getting that pick. top 10 protected……like 95% chance? so that means, whatever a team gets if the protection comes in, that’s what they are really trading for. So, trading a protected pick in the weak 2019 draft could really be like trading our 2020 pick, if you know what I mean.

      That was confusing. if made sense as I was writing it

    100. Brian Cronin

      Well, they sucked last year and still only picked #9 in this draft, so I think there are decent odds of getting the pick next year, especially because this team never tanks. Then, I’m sure whatever protections placed on it would dissipate over time, so you’d get the pick eventually (Top 5 in 2019, then #1 protected in 2020, no protection in 2021, etc.)

      That said, sure, I agree that a Top 10 Protected Knick pick would not be desirable for that very reason. A Top 5 Protected one, though, could have real value. Do you really see this team, if they were, say, #7, intentionally losing games to get into the Top 5 so they wouldn’t have to convey the pick? This is the Knicks. That would be seen as, like, bad form or something like that.

    101. hoolahoop

      DeAndre Ayton is a freakin beast. He’s the only guy in the draft that I’d trade KP to get. Maybe.

    102. ess-dog

      I don’t know why ANY team would make a pick based on ONE or maybe TWO workouts in an empty gym instead of looking at film from 30-plus games and loads of statistics, but I guess I don’t really “know” players like these “professionals” do dur doe.

    103. hoolahoop

      Outside of Porter, Young and Sexton, the knicks are going to draft someone who’s girtty, that will play tough defense and chase down loose balls . . . whoever they think that is.
      They won’t draft a soft player if Fiz has anything to say about it.

    104. hoolahoop

      I don’t know why ANY team would make a pick based on ONE or maybe TWO workouts in an empty gym instead of looking at film from 30-plus games and loads of statistics, but I guess I don’t really “know” players like these “professionals” do dur doe.

      Some players don’t get to show their complete skillset in some systems, especially if they’re not the #1 option. Wendell Carter feels that way. And he’s a smart kid (could have gone to Harvard).

      KP’s interview with Phil weighed heavy in his decision to pick him.

    105. TheOakmanCometh

      Yeah, not sure why Knox ‘s one good workout should outweigh Trae’s season long domination against actual players. That’s the availability heuristic at play. “I saw it with my own eyes, therefore it’s more relevant than all other data.”

    106. TheOakmanCometh

      If Kanter wants to opt out of his $19m expiring contract for a long term deal, I’ll happily offer him 4 years, $16m. That’s $16m total, not annual. I’ll give you a few minutes to think it over, Enes.

    107. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      Kanter should opt out and we should do nothing with the cap space. That’s my plan.

    108. the don nelson era

      @95 – I know the guy who put that clip up! he’s a real class act #tkdfutda

    109. hoolahoop

      How much does “hi-ceiling” vs. NBA ready figure into your pick? Super athlete or solid mediocre?
      Potential has got to be seductive to FO’s.

    110. lavor postell

      The Sixers could seek to trade up a notch for the 18-year-old and offer the Knicks a piece of their slew of draft picks (they have six 2018 picks — No. 26 and four in the second round).

      Alex Rucker, the Sixers’ director of analytics and strategy, said he’s unsure Knox will be on the board.

      “He’s a very talented modern NBA wing, 6-9, fluid, shot the ball great,’’ Rucker said. “In the modern game, Kevin can play two, three positions (2, 3, 4).”

      If this is all an elaborate smokescreen to get Philly to give up an additional asset(s) to guarantee they get the guy they have the hots for that would be an impressive achievement for a Knicks front office.

    111. nicos

      humor me… what differences do you see? [between Ayton and Okafor]

      Ayton’s blockrate wasn’t great at 6.1 but was solidly better than Okafor’s 4.5 (.4 blocks per 40 better). Also Ayton was an excellent defensive rebounder (28.2%) while Okafor wasn’t (18.2). Ayton was also a solid free throw shooter with at least has the potential to add an outside shot- not the case with Okafor. Add in an extra inch of height and superior athleticism and you end up with a much better prospect.

    112. Zanzibar

      Can you send me the link to the thread? It’s cool stuff and I’ll respond more fully soon. To clarify though I’m not anti JJJr. Hes probably my 3rd favorite prospect in the draft, depending on how I feel about Trae Young that day.

      LINK TO THREAD

      Keep in mind that the first spreadsheet was created in January and many of the comments in the thread I believe are referring to the BPM in the first part of the season when Doncic’s stats were better. The author updated the spreadsheet throughout the season. The link I’ve provided in my post #90 is to the spreadsheet at the end of their regular season. Here are the BPMs of some former NBA players on the spreadsheet who apparently played in the Euroleague this year:
      – Doncic 7.63
      – Nick Calathes 6.3
      – Gustavo Ayon 5.64
      – Edy Taveras 4.45
      – Jan Vesely 3.45
      – Nando de Colo 3.08
      – Alexey Shved 3.00

      My initial reaction is that his BPM is fine but not so strong as I would have figured compared to some of those former NBA players. And I’m not anti-Doncic, he’s #2 on my board. I’m just interested in ways to translate Euroleague performance to NBA and NCAA. I know Pelton’s got some sort of system but I’m not sure what he does.

    113. Zanzibar

      Kanter should opt out and we should do nothing with the cap space. That’s my plan.

      Denver is offering the #14 pick to a team who would take Faried. Man that pick in this draft would be nice. Makes me wish we had dumped Courtney’s contract, not signed Timmy in the first place, and not given Baker that 5m. Of course, if Memphis likes Timmy, I might be singin’ a different tune.

    114. ClashFan

      If Kanter would opt out today, would the Knicks be under the cap? If so, they might be able to “buy” Washington’s #15 pick or Denver’s 14.

      I’ll say it again, and I’m not even a huge Trae Young fun. But if he’s there at #9, they need to roll the dice and take him. Frank to the two, and let’s see what happens. Trey’s shooting, handle, and court vision are worth the look.

      Also, I’d much rather the Knicks take Sexton than Knox if they don’t want to go wing. I’d rather gamble on Sexton learning to shoot than Knox learning to hustle, defend and rebound in real basketball games.

    115. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      If Kanter opts out before the draft I would do that trade and then offer 9, 14, and Tim Hardaway Jr to Memphis for the #4 pick if Doncic is still available.

    116. Zanzibar

      – Doncic 7.63
      – Nick Calathes 6.3
      – Gustavo Ayon 5.64
      – Edy Taveras 4.45
      – Jan Vesely 3.45
      – Nando de Colo 3.08
      – Alexey Shved 3.00

      My initial reaction is that his BPM is fine but not so strong as I would have figured compared to some of those former NBA players. And I’m not anti-Doncic, he’s #2 on my board. I’m just interested in ways to translate Euroleague performance to NBA and NCAA. I know Pelton’s got some sort of system but I’m not sure what he does.

      Taking another look at this, we know the bpm’s the players put up in the nba and some of them have probably improved since then. If you subtract from 5 or 6 from those figures, Doncic would have a 1.63 to 2.63 NBA BPM which would be quite excellent for an 18-19yo.

    117. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      The Knicks really need to do whatever it takes to grab Luka Doncic on Thursday if all of Memphis, Atlanta, and Sacramento are offering to trade down.

    118. Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada

      Re: The BPM numbers:

      There’s 3 issues here: 1. translating ACB/Euroleague BPM to NBA or college BPM. 2. How DBPM values its players, which I think ends up overrating JJJ’s defensive contributions (despite their still being elite and NBA-projectable) and 3. the eye test stuff that leads us to speculate (with some merit) about projectability at the next level.

      It’s hard to say just how much better ACB/Euroleague is than the NCAA, though I’d suspect it is significantly better than the NCAA, I don’t have the mathematical bona fides to speculate how much, exactly, however. But Real Madrid did beat OKC in an exhibition match, which, while OKC probably wasn’t going at full tilt, is undeniably impressive, as they had the full complement of Westbrook, Oladipo, Roberson, Adams, etc. If anything, the top euroleague teams are closer to bottom-feeder NBA teams than they are to the NCAA. So I’d hedge towards assuming Doncic would have a big productivity boost if he played in the NCAA.

      Regarding DBPM: DBPM doesn’t really adequately capture defense, because all it does is subtract OBPM from the BPM sum and then classify that as DBPM. So we don’t really get an explanation for why players rank well on DBPM. From looking at a lot of NBA DBPM, it appears that defenders get v overrated if their rebounding numbers or block numbers are very good. Jackson’s block numbers were stellar, and I think that’s the main reason his DBPM grades out as flat out amazing as opposed to very good. On the other hand, I think his OBPM is inflated because I think his 3 point percentage is inflated because of the way MSU’s offense worked. He has a pretty slow release and can’t get it off in space, and he mostly shot from the corners, meaning he’s going to struggle to get his shot off and convert at the NBA level especially with his current lack of ball skills. Put differently, I think BPM overrates JJJ AND he has some projectability concerns that…

    119. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, and one of the Bridges are going to lead us to the promised land"

      define: Knickerblogger

      CJ,

      I’m not sure what that means, but if the idea was to suggest I should have the data, I never bothered to analyze it myself. I’ve only seen what others have published. The reason is, as I suggested, the draft itself has changed. The probability of making the correct choice is lower when you are selecting 19 year old players than when you are selecting 22 year old players because you have more games/data to examine and you don’t have to project as much development at 22. On the flip side, our understanding of the game has improved, there are more stats, and we go through a lot more analysis of these young players now than we used to. No set of data controls well for all those changes and any attempt to do so would reduce the sample size further. That all takes me back to my original conclusion. There’s no doubt picking higher is better than picking lower. That makes obvious intuitive sense and is supported by general data. However, most people wildly overestimate the advantage.

    120. Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada

      (cont’d)

      AND he has projectability concern that Doncic avoids. Doncic’s 3pt shot is projectable because 1. his 3 pters are often high degree of difficulty; 2. what highly correlates to good NBA 3pt shooting isn’t just 3pt% but also 3pt volume–in fact, iirc volume correlates just as much as percentage does, which kind of makes sense (more shots, more practice, more confidence, etc.) All of Doncic’s offensive skills immediately translate to the NBA, and his mediocre individual and team d is probably at least somewhat counterbalanced by his excellent rebounding. He pretty much has no flaws related to his skills. The only thing you can ding him for is, like, foot speed. Whereas Jackson can’t really put the ball on the floor or playmake at this stage, and if his shot doesn’t translate, he immediately become kind of an offensive liability unless he makes up for it with rebounding and more rolling (he sort of has stone hands, tbh.) We’ll see though.

    121. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, and one of the Bridges are going to lead us to the promised land"

      A friend of mine just made a pretty good point to me after looking at Mikal Bridges’s and Damyean Dotson’s college stats.

      They are both SG/SF types that are known for defense and knocking down 3s. They both need some work creating off the dribble . They are a similar size and they are not that far apart in age given that Dotson has already played 1 year in the NBA. One could argue that if we draft Bridges we are getting a very similar player even if Mikal is a bit better at the same age. His point was that if the Knicks are reasonably high on Dotson becoming a solid 3 and D SG/SF, maybe it makes more sense to draft Knox who is more of a SF/PF with more of a scoring upside if we have them rated similarly.

    122. Hubert

      In the Tim Hardaway press conference last summer, Steve Mills made it very clear what kind on players he wanted:

      “ a roster emphasizing youth, athleticism, accountability and unselfishness.”

      I remember noticing he mentioned nothing about production. Ever since then, I’ve been fearful of the choices he might make. When we gave up Willy and acquired Mudiay, that fear heightened because it doubled down on the philosophy that athleticism trumps talent.

      If we end up taking Kevin Knox over a productive player, I think I know all I need to know about the Steve Mills era.

      I thought I was setting my expectations low with Collin Sexton. He’s not a perfect prospect, but I could get behind him at 9. I can’t believe it’s become possible that we may go even below that.

    123. Donnie Walsh

      KP’s interview with Phil weighed heavy in his decision to pick him.

      And his exit interview with him weighed heavy in his decision to try to trade him for Devin Booker.

      (Perhaps too much emphasis is put on “interviews” when the job you’re hiring for is nothing more than putting balls through 10 foot hoop?)

    124. bidiong

      Just caught a little portion of a mock draft program on ESPN and they said the Clippers are getting Trae Young at 12.

    125. Donnie Walsh

      if Kanter opts out, his contract still runs through 6/30, no?

      Correct, Kanter’s space can’t be cleared until after July 1. And he can’t be traded until he opts in. So he’s a moot asset going into this draft.

    126. swiftandabundant

      I can understand being skeptical of individual workouts. I think a lot of kids who end up not being good NBA players could dazzle in a workout.

      But I think the interview is actually SUPER important in determining who you want to draft. An interview might clue you into how hard the prospect will work, whether they’re smart, humble, hard working…or do they all ready think they’re really good, are they gonna get lazy the second they start making millions of dollars. A lot of people will play hard when they’re trying to make it to the NBA and then relax once they’re there since the money is basically guaranteed and you can kinda suck and still make tens of millions of dollars over a career, especially if you’re a lotto pick. So absolutely the interview I think is important.

      So much of this people here act like its all predetermined who is going to be good cause of their college stats and yes, it is incredibly important. But I wonder if some people focus on it so much they lose site of stuff like the interviews, workouts, etc. You might be able to pull up a stat and say “well no player who’s x stat was below this ever became a good player” but then there’s probably at least one exception to that. And you might say “yeah, but its only one exception” to which I would say “yes, but finding that exception is how you knock a draft pick out of the park.”

    127. Zanzibar

      Jackson’s block numbers were stellar, and I think that’s the main reason his DBPM grades out as flat out amazing as opposed to very good.

      Yes but DBPM doesn’t reflect his ability to switch and guard 1-5 so imo his DBPM isn’t inflated. His relatively low defensive rebounding is because he played the 4 next to a legit 5. His offensive rebounding, however, was not good at all and he fouled too much.

      He has a pretty slow release and can’t get it off in space

      Actually Schmitz and Duncan both thought he gets the ball off fast. Schmitz said he’s been draining those shots since high school and he’ll be a PnPop threat in the pros. Duncan expressed some concern that he starts his shot from too low.

      Whereas Jackson can’t really put the ball on the floor or playmake at this stage,

      He’s not that bad at all when he puts the ball on the floor, his turnovers did not occur at those times. But his playmaking is why he’s slated to go after Ayton, Doncic and Bags. Here’s where I differ from just about everybody. I look at the guy and see a very agile, mobile, coordinated and high IQ player which I believe will eventually translate to a very versatile NBA offensive player. It’s critical to remember he played the whole season as an 18yo or a high school senior. As I mentioned, Schmitz thinks he’ll be able to PnPop in NBA. They don’t execute many PnR’s in college but I believe he’ll be at the level right below Deandre on the dive. He’s already pretty good at attacking closeouts. He’s got the jump hook and probably could develop a few more post moves. And he’s a decent passer. So he’ll never be Kareem or Shaq in terms of shot creation but I think in time he’ll be versatile enough that he’ll be a force on both offense and defense. Duncan thinks his ceiling is Horford but I think it’s Garnett.

    128. 2FOR18, understands math

      They’re doing a mock draft on NBA channel . Sekou Smith made the Knicks pick and took sexton. Yuck.
      They had Ayton, Bagley, Bamba, Doncic, Porter, JJJ, Trae and Carter going top 8.
      Yes, I’m watching a mock draft lol.

    129. Hubert

      And you might say “yeah, but its only one exception” to which I would say “yes, but finding that exception is how you knock a draft pick out of the park.”

      No, reaching for that exception is how to fuck up a draft pick.

      You don’t need to be the genius that found a guy at 9 who everyone thought was only the 18th best player in the draft. Just keep it simple and take the best player. That’s how you knock roster construction out of the park.

    130. djphan

      jackson’s low rebounding is probably due to his absurd block rate…. if you’re hunting for blocks you’re generally out of position for the rebound which might explain some of the rebound rates for bridges and ward…. also he took a lot of his 3s… his defensive reb rate isn’t that far out of wack but his o-reb is….

      again… jackson profiles a lot like ibaka…. i don’t necessarily think that’s a bad thing….

      re: okafor vs ayton – now that we’ve established what the difference is between them… the next exercise is figuring out the difference between ayton and all the other franchise centers that have come into the nba… and then figuring out who he’s more similar to ….

      that might be an eye opening exercise for some….

    131. ClashFan

      I wouldn’t be thrilled with the Knicks picking Sexton, but on the bright side it would at least show that the FO is ready to move on from Mudiay. Well, probably.

      But, are these guys already willing to admit that the Mudiay deal was a mistake, and that they basically lit a second round pick on fire? Didn’t Fizdale say that the Knicks were going to fix him?

    132. Knick fan not in NJ at this time

      Correct, Kanter’s space can’t be cleared until after July 1. And he can’t be traded until he opts in. So he’s a moot asset going into this draft.

      Yes, but he wants a long term contract. So couldn’t we do a sign and trade where we give him a contract he likes and trade him someplace right afterwards?

    133. Donnie Walsh

      Yes, but he wants a long term contract. So couldn’t we do a sign and trade where we give him a contract he likes and trade him someplace right afterwards?

      No, at least not before July 1st. (ie, not for 2018 draft picks or cap space to acquire 2018 draft picks)

    134. heavencent35

      Looking at Porter Jr. highlights, i think he could be the one. We need a SF and he seems like a Tatum type of player. I dont think he is injured enough. Could be a paul pierce type of draft for us.

    135. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      @137

      Maybe it’s you who needs to open your eyes to some film. Sports reference is awesome though

    136. djphan

      @133 – the stats are pretty important… but they’re absolutely not the only thing… but if you’re talking about the odds of drafting a real difference maker…. they almost always… like 85%…. at minimum pass certain benchmarks in each statistical category….

      now that doesn’t guarantee that they’ll be good… there are plenty of guys who did incredibly well in college and still failed or disappointed … ie. michael beasley…. but if you wanna draft stephen curry or kevin durant or anthony davis… or ben simmons or kawhi leonard or jimmy butler or draymond green…. then you AT LEAST need to perform up to a certain level by a certain age…

      occasionally you get someone like deandre jordan or russell westbrook…. who really had meh numbers…. but were put into a not so ideal situations… in their case the production didn’t accurately reflect their talent level….

      but those are rare exceptions…. which is why you generally want to start looking at their production first and then start filtering guys from there…. looking at guys who didn’t produce is generally a losing proposition….

    137. heavencent35

      KP and noah for kyrie and a top 10 pick.
      I love KP but i dont think he is conditioned enough to be a superstar.
      If he gets injured again we might not have the same value for him.

    138. djphan

      @142 – i’m pretty sure you haven’t actually watched ayton aside from ‘film’ on youtube or else you probably would’ve noticed how a team like buffalo pretended ayton wasn’t actually there…

      i probably watch more college ball than most here.. .and certainly more than the folks who just decide to pay attention to the draft by watching youtube for the last month or so and call themselves experts…. so i wouldn’t assume anything….

    139. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      Right because one game where Arizona gets blown out by Buffalo wipes away everything he did prior to that game. Even though Ayton had a double double in that game, too.

    140. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      i probably watch more college ball than most here.. .and certainly more than the folks who just decide to pay attention to the draft by watching youtube for the last month or so and call themselves experts…. so i wouldn’t assume anything….

      Yeah, and I probably play a lot more chess than you but I’m still not a Grandmaster–

    141. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      Ayton had a gravity to him this season where defenses collapsed on him off the catch, and it still didn’t matter most times. He could beat centers off the dribble and if they gave him space it’s a mid range jumper. He would kill teams on the offensive glass, you could throw the ball up to him in a double team and he would still come down with it and get you a bucket. There was nothing teams could do with him and that is why he scored 20 points a night on a .650 TS%.

      This discussion is largely irrelevant to the Knicks, though. Ayton will be taken 1st overall and he’ll put up big numbers from Day 1 unless he’s injured. You can bet on a freak athlete like Ayton all you want.

    142. Knick fan not in NJ at this time

      ESPN insiders think we should trade KP and Noah for Kyrie and pick # 27.

      I saw there list of possible trades. I don’t know what they are smoking, because I can’t see why NY would do this. We trade our best defender who can also score for a terrible defender who can score. They are both coming back from injuries, except that Kyrie gets back earlier. Getting a player back from injury sooner and getting rid of Noah’s contract doesn’t help us much because we aren’t in win now mode, at least I very much hope we are not. So why do that trade?

    143. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      Woj with the breaking scoop that Atlanta is going to be deciding between Jarren Jackson Jr and Luka Doncic at 3. Man where would we be without that piece of information?

    144. ess-dog

      Bucks will trade their pick for a veteran wing, apparently, and we have two for them, perfect.

    145. Brian Cronin

      I saw there list of possible trades. I don’t know what they are smoking, because I can’t see why NY would do this. We trade our best defender who can also score for a terrible defender who can score. They are both coming back from injuries, except that Kyrie gets back earlier. Getting a player back from injury sooner and getting rid of Noah’s contract doesn’t help us much because we aren’t in win now mode, at least I very much hope we are not. So why do that trade?

      It was one of those “LOL Knicks” arguments. Now, don’t get me wrong, I think the Knicks organization is still a bad one, but that doesn’t mean I think you should suggest dumb trades just because “LOL Knicks.” The article even notes, “Why wouldn’t they just wait?” and essentially explains it as, “Because the Knicks are dumb.”

    146. Bruno Almeida

      The Givony quote that Doncic is as low as 8 in some of the bad teams big boards really tells you everything you need to know about why management matters so much in moments like these and why projecting drafts is so tough.

      I trust Givony a lot and he has no reason to make this up but man, just how stupid some of these dudes can be. I’m firmly on the “front offices are often ran by stupid people” group but this is a whole new level of insanity. I just hope against reason the Knicks are not one of those teams but they probably are in the list.

      At this point I just want them to draft someone obvious. Just go for either of the Bridges or Carter Jr. or Young if they’re available and call it a day. Drafting a complete bust this year would be a tragedy we really cannot afford. I’m a swing for the fences guy but I feel the fences are like 500 feet away with Knox or Sexton.

    147. Brian Cronin

      With Sexton and Knox, the big problem is not that a team might bet on them, but that they’re precisely the type of player that we all knew, we knew that the Knicks were going to like months ago, whether they are actually good or not, because of Mills’ very specific idea of what he looks for in players. The same school of thought that sent Willy packing and brought in THJ and Mudiay.

      Trey, meanwhile, had to blow people out of the water for months in the G-League to get a chance, because he doesn’t fit their typical mold.

    148. DRed

      My problem with Mills is he says the right shit but he doesn’t seem to know what it means. Like he talks about being patient and doing things the right way and player development blah blah and then he gives Tim hardaway a stupidly huge deal,we’re playing Lee over kids in a season that’s gone off the rails, we’re trading for fucking Mudiay, etc. Knox seems like perfect millsbait. He was underwhelming because he played the 3, not the 4 in college. He’s got great length. He can kinda shoot. If we develop his rebounding, defense, ball handling and playmaking then baby we got something.

    149. JK47

      If we develop his rebounding, defense, ball handling and playmaking then baby we got something.

      This is exactly how I feel. Just draft the guy who is already good at shit, not the guy who’s “a good athlete” and “oozes potential” yet somehow puts up pedestrian numbers when he gets a chance to play. We had this same stupid ass argument over Emmanuel Mudiay just a few short months ago. “If he can learn to finish, and works on his shot, and improves his defense, and makes better decisions, he could be really good!”

      I can’t believe this isn’t blindingly obvious but on the other hand, Knicks.

    150. Jack Bauer

      @156 This

      I couldn’t agree more, just stick with one of the Bridges or Carter or Young if they fall. Don’t blow the pick or make a stupid trade giving up future valuable assets which would set them back even further.

      The Knicks brass idiot meter seems to be spiking unless they suddenly have become smart and are actuallybeing clever. We’ll see, the more I hear and read the less confident I am of a good outcome. Meanwhile the Lakers are on the verge of getting 2 or 3 very good/great players, of course….

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