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35 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2025.05.10)”
Even with Cleveland’s win last night, it’s fascinating how well underdogs have done so far in this round. The Denver-OKC series seems to have exposed an Achilles heel in the season’s most dominant team: when things get tight, SGA is really the only guy capable of generating offense on his own. The same could probably be said about us and Brunson, though.
Eye test, but I think Jalen Williams is pretty capable as well. And Holmgren if he has the right matchup. But I’m curious what the stats say.
In the improbable event that we make it to the Finals, I wouldn’t hate not having to play against that OKC defense again. And from a narrative standpoint, Wolves-Knicks would be spectacular.
But first, we’ve got to take care of business against these accursed Celtics. Fingers crossed that KAT starts bombing away from the perimeter today.
What both the Knicks and Pacers did in the first 2 games of this round feels different than anything in recent history. Anyone remember the ’92 Lakers (sans Magic) who, as an 8 seed, went up 2-0 against the Suns team who eventually made it to the Finals? That is the closest association I have… there was also the time the ’92 Knicks took Game 1 (but not Game 2) from MJ and the Bulls in the 2nd round.
Pretty poor showing by OKC, losing to the Nuggets on a night where Jokic had 20 points on 25 shots, was 0-10 from 3 and had 8 turnovers.
Playoffs basketball this year, for many reasons, and to a greater degree than usual, feels like a completely different game from the regular season.
I was shocked the Nuggets won last night. Went to sleep early. Doesn’t even look like vintage Jokic.
I’ve been saying the entire year that OKC needs to pack up their depth pieces and consolidate them into another star, they have all these interchangeable dudes like Joe, Wallace, Wiggins, even Dort and Caruso were pretty bad last game, who can give you minutes here and there but don’t move the needle at all in the playoffs.
They look like the Harden Rockets, where their entire offense requires SGA to dominate, but when he shoots only 5 free throws and can’t get into rhythm like that it’s not enough.
If anyone else is gonna be at MSG and wants to meet up somewhere before let me know! TNFHGF is now well acquainted with the fact that I have a bunch of internet friends I love dearly, most of whom I’ve never met.
I think it’s fair to say that the contrast between regular season and playoff basketball has never been greater. A lot of these games look like 1990’s basketball…low scoring defensive slugfests. Scoring is down from 113.8 to 107.6 per game. Only the Magic, Hornets, and Nets averaged fewer than 107.6 during the regular season. That suggests that if you took the average of playoff teams only, the gap would be significantly greater.
OKC has so many options on how to move forward that it boggles the mind. The biggest advantage they have is a multitude of ways to avoid massive tax penalties while having a rock-solid floor of conference semis and perennial true contender.
Acquiring another “star” might mess with that mix. Presti might believe that he is so good at the draft and at talent evaluation, he should just continue to fleece teams out of SGA’s and picks and find more Chets, J-Dubs, etc.
The iHart move is an example of a FA move that would not have been possible if he was paying multiple stars max contracts. But the clock is ticking on Jalen and Chet, and iHart and Caruso are going to seem pretty expensive when those rookie deals are extended. It will be interesting to see whether Presti goes all in if they get knocked off this year. But that’s a long way from happening, this current series is far from over and I’d be surprised if they don’t get past the Nuggets. If they do, they should be heavily favored in the next round.
“If anyone else is gonna be at MSG and wants to meet up somewhere before let me know! TNFHGF is now well acquainted with the fact that I have a bunch of internet friends I love dearly, most of whom I’ve never met.”
Enjoy the game, should be a madhouse! Hpoefully there won;t be too many Massholes in green jerseys in the crowd.
That was the question about them all year. Could Chet and Jalen step up when teams load up to stop SGA?
The ironic thing about us is we might be one of the best equipped teams in the league to handle teams loading up on our star but we don’t use them effectively. SGA is out there giving the ball to his teammates and being let down. Brunson’s got guys who SGA would love to give the ball to but he isn’t passing it to them.
We might be on the verge of experiencing the 99th percentile outcome in these playoffs (100% health plus BOS, CLE, OKC all out in the second round). But this Captain Clutch narrative is looming over us. Make no mistake: I want Brunson taking the big shots. Just give up the ball when you’re doubled, bc you are not hitting those shots, and your teammates are really good.
What Josh Hart in particular has done to make himself a threat late in games is remarkable. Almost all our biggest late game shots in this series involve him in some way, whether it’s been directly via an assist or indirectly via intelligent motion. Used to be no one covered him on that pick and roll bc he wasn’t a threat. Now I think it’s bc they know Brunson never passes it to him.
The playoffs afford defensive schemes and defensive players significant advantages that the regular season just can’t. More information, more practice, tighter sphincters. In a league built on high octane offense where 3point variance is mitigated by volume that shit can translate wickedly as the market gets squeezed. The market is getting squeezed hard right now and maybe Elmer Fudd’s sticktoitiveness might be getting some grace. It’s rabbit season.
Hauser listed as doubtful as of yesterday. If he is out and KP is still under the weather, that is a huge help. If that happens, I wonder if Mazzulla will bring someone else in for at least spot minutes in the 2nd Q…Queta, Tillman, Craig…probably not but it wouldn’t shock me.
OTOH, if KP is close to 100%, he’s been pretty good at MSG despite relentless booing.
porzingis not on injury report hauser doubtful which is same as not playing
“Fingers crossed that KAT starts bombing away from the perimeter today.”
KAT has not been getting clean looks, mostly because the Celtics are not leaving him, like, ever. They are mostly sticking a wing on him and pushing him out of the post as far as possible, daring him to either take a long 2 or power-dribble into the post where help is lurking. They are not leaving him to double on PnRs. Last game he did a good job of overpowering Horford before a double came (maybe they felt that Horford had the size to contain KAT without help). I don’t expect much change from that strategy.
In that case, rather than force up contested or rushed 3’s, I’d like to see more of KAT posting up, maybe a step deeper, and also see him hitting the offensive glass, especially when Brunson is tilting the floor and putting up soft shots that don’t carom beyond the restricted area. He’s excellent at finishing when he gets deep offensive rebounds, but can also pass out to open 3pt shooters like Josh Hart did. The and-1 he got in crunch time was huge.
I am not expecting KP to give them more than 10-15 minutes. He’s not injured, but his illness has left him weak and frail. He has always tended to fade as the season goes on do to his anemia anyway.
Their defense is elite, but their offense has been overrated all year.
Part of the reason their overall offense it’s ranked so high is that their bench is so strong. For “x” minutes every game they have better players on the court than most other teams, including some of the other very good ones. That advantage is not as valuable in the playoffs. I think it’s possible to argue Denver’s starting 5 is better on offense than OKC’s. Hell, imo the Knicks starting 5 has more talent on offense than OKC. Our bench is just terrible and our defense a weakness.
If Denver can really lock in on the defensive side I think they have a chance to pull off this upset, but OKC is still the favorite. It is hard to believe they pulled that out last night given how well Joker was defended and how poorly he played.
Interesting that the Celtics, Cavs and Thunder are all still favored in their series despite being behind.
I wouldn’t be surprised if either the Cavs, Celtics, or Thunder pulled it out.
It’s interesting that we have much better gambling odds to win today than we did in g1 and g2, and it makes empirical sense. However, intuitively winning today is absolutely unfathomable because it would be so bad for the Celtics and so good for us. Refs have strongly favored Boston so far and I expect that to be turned up to 11 with Horfird getting away with NFL screens every single play. They will make threes, we’ll continue to run the eorst offense in the NBA, and that’s all that differentiated the previous games from us getting blown out.
I expect blowout losses today, Monday, and really in the next 4 games. Even taking Boston to 7 feels unlikely, and actually beating them impossible still.
Interestingly, bbref thinks yesterday’s results increased our chance to win this series slightly, snd also increased our tiltle odds to 4.7%. I suspect that is where they will prak for the postseason.
It’s so interesting that despite our 2 game buffer this game feels like a must win because game 4 is a definite loss either way. Sweeping the Celtics would be unimaginable and the pressure of a game 4 that would put us down 2-2 would be insurmountable. So we have to won today but it would almost guarantee we win the series so we won’t. Then we have to lose game 4 for the aforementioned reasons, then we have to lose game 5 because that would be way too many playoff road wins in a row for us and way too many playoff home losses for Boston.
So then we’re down to game 6 and having to beat BOS twice in a row in must win games which will never happen so there you have it: Celtics in 6 or maybe 7 are the only remaining possible outcomes. i just eish I didn’t have to wait 2 more weeks for this all to be over!
Our bench isn’t terrible when Mitch is healthy and Deuce isn’t in whatever slump he’s been in since coming back from injury.
I think the Pacers are frauds with outstanding opponent injury luck, and the Celtics forced a game 7 down 0-3. There’s every objective reason to still like the favorites.
These Thunder though… they wilted last year as the 1 seed and they’re playing against a team whose roster has championship pedigree and the best living basketball player.
I’m seeing shades of Hakeem’s 47-win Rockets vs. MVP David Robinson’s 62-win Spurs in 1995
I think we are going with a 7 man rotation the rest of the way. Everyone else is situational.
That’s likely going to be true both ways, too. When it’s 7 v 7 I have no issue with a short rotation. It only becomes problematic when it’s 7 v 9 like vs the Pacers last year and they’re playing the long game sending waves of fresh players at you.
That was some of your best work, Pags. But you’re missing something: maybe the Celtics just aren’t who you think they are.
We shall see.
My thought on the Celtics has always been that their weakness is lack of an elite inner circle offensive player. Tatum is amazing, but a step down from the Jokic, Curry, or Giannis type of guy you usually need to win a championship.
They have enough aggregate talent that it doesn’t really matter, and to the extent Tatum is below the threshold, it isn’t by much. He’ll shoot better, but the refs are letting teams get physical and the Knicks have been locked in on him in particular.
We just need Brian to predict that the Celtics blow us out tonight and we’ll have this series in the bag
Well KP is in the starting lineup so there’s that.
When was the last time the Knicks lost 3 straight home games? We might be due for a win just because of that.
Z-Man I’m from Saratoga and I usually go up to visit family in August. I love 9 Maple.
Can’t shake the feeling that the Celtics will wake up and we’ll lose the series in the end. But reading you guys has given me more hope, we also have things we can be better at. I guess i need one win out of games 3 and 4 to start believing.
You can do it, Knicks, go for it.
They need to win no fewer than 10 more games before I’ll start believing.
I’m just waiting for the avalanche of 3s to bury us.
That’s not good.
This kind of blows my mind. I fully expect the Celtics to win some games if not the series, but the idea that we’re about to start game 3 and game 5 is TBA “if necessary” – and not because we’re down 0-2 – is crazy.
Edit: in other words, this might be the high water mark of the season, but it feels pretty good
In the game thread of Game 2 when it looked like we were heading for a certain loss, I commented “maybe they’ll start missing everything again” half jokingly, and then that’s exactly what happened. Not sure how many times we can pull that same rabbit out of the hat. We made the big plays when it counted and took advantage of the opportunity they handed us twice now, but it doesn’t seem very likely that we will keep getting those opportunities.
We CAN play better than we have, though.
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