Knicks Morning News (2023.03.19)

“JK47 says:
March 18, 2023 at 23:36
I figured Brunson would be good, but never in my wildest imagination did I think he’d be 4 BPM good. I thought Josh Hart would be a nice pickup but I didn’t expect him to play like a more low usage, high efficiency version of Scottie Pippen. I didn’t see the return of 4 BPM Julius Randle coming, and I thought if anybody was likely to have a breakout it was RJ, which is the one positive development that didn’t happen.”

It certainly wasn’t irrational to think that Randle and Brunson wouldn’t be as good as they have been. But I don’t think we’re looking at their 99th percentile outcomes either.

In Brunson’s case, the sample of his play without Doncic was small, but not so small that it seemed like a fluke. He’s doing exactly what he did in those games. His overall numbers seem very sustainable, maybe except for the 41% 3pt shooting. His USG% and AST% are both higher than they were overall with DAL, but again, not in the sample without Doncic. Frankly, it would have been disappointing if he didn’t play this way after watching him destruct Spida in the playoffs like he did.

In Randle’s case, he had 3 good seasons out of 5, including an all-MBA season. The main question was whether he could do it without unsustainable 3-pt shooting, and with more deferring to Brunson. What bugged me most was when folks insinuated that he was either in physical decline, or had irredeemable character issues. He’s probably close to his ceiling this year, but there might be a bit more efficiency to squeeze out of him if we find a true alpha at another position. But I don’t see any reason to believe that what he’s doing is unsustainable for the length of his contract.

Hart’s BPM with us is coming down to earth, and I like some aspects of the Pippen analogy but he was an all-time great so maybe that’s a bridge too far. Maybe Ron Artest? Trevor Ariza? Draymond Green? Marcus Smart? The nice thing is he doesn’t seem to have one iota of asshole in him.

RJ is so maddening. I truly wonder what Thibs sees in the game films that he pores over (really, does anyone doubt that he does that?) that justifies his love for him. The numbers are so glaringly negative. If there is one cause for optimism it’s that he is probably a better 3pt shooter than he has shown recently, and is getting up towards 50% from 2. His shot selection seems better since Hart was acquired and his TS% is .548 since the ASB even with a dismal 27% from 3. Maybe he’s hearing footsteps? In any case, Hart is the perfect role model for RJ.

I remember as a 10yo who religiously listened to every game baack then how much I respected and feared Dave Debusschere as an opponent, partly due to the reverence that Marv Albert expressed for him. He felt like a legit superstar at that moment in time. When we acquired him I was literally floored. It definitely made us a championship caliber team, and at such little cost…a washed Bellamy and a lovable scrub in Howard Komives.

Josh Hart is definitely a revelation of a low-cost mid-season acquisition, but maybe we’re getting carried away?

“There are some similarities though and Hart’s impact is undeniable.”

We are 12-3 since acquiring him. If we had stood pat, I cringe to think what our record would have been in those 15 games, especially the ones without Brunson…7-8 at best?

His stats are mind-boggling:
30.3mpg
13.3pts-8.5rebs-4.7asts-1.6 stls per 36
56% from 3
62% from 2
.730 TS%
4.9 BPM
.202 WS48
.423 FTr
OnCourt: +15.4
On/Off: +13.9

The dude has been a fucking cheat code.

From after the Portland game:
“It’s great,” Hart said, “I think this team was trending upwards when I got here, and I was able to just fit right in and continue to help this team grow…I’m in a new position right now, where I’m sitting here and we’re really playing for something. I haven’t really been in that position before in my career, and I think that’s just making myself even more hungry, and the rest of the guys in the locker room.”

I didn’t realize that Josh Hart had only played for losing teams before now…that’s pretty cool that he’s referring to our team as “really playing for something…”

Raven, my objection to the narrative about Julius’ volatility has been that it doesn’t allow enough for context. From my perspective, his vibe was exacerbated by being in a role for which he really isn’t well-suited, and also compounded by being embarrassed by the booing and negativity in front of his son, which is understandable but obviously unacceptable. I just don’t agree that he’s as weak-minded as some here think. It took an enormous amount of mental strength to go from where he was at last year’s nadir to where he is right now. He knows who he is, and even after last week’s setback, he sort of owned it and moved on.

The brain farts are infuriating, but lots of players around the league do the same stuff…even Jokic got stripped and had passes stolen in Randle-like fashion yesterday. Randle does it more than most stars, but he gets paid way less than them so I can live with it.

And that’s the key for me…whether he is outplaying his contract or not. He is certainly doing so this year. And his “revised” mental state is a big part of that. It’s not perfect, but I think your characterization of him as an “emotional mess” is pretty extreme.

I mean, virtually every player complains to the refs incessantly these days. Coaches too! I agree that Randle wears his heart on his sleeve more than most, but he also is the kind of player that doesn’t show contact well and doesn’t get as many calls as he should.

He’s clearly not the most cerebral player out there, and is less self-aware of his limitations than I would like. He’s an awful lot like Melo in all of these regards, including playing through contact and complaining to refs. I don’t care for Randle’s antics all that much, but wasn’t a fan of Melo’s grinning or stuff like his yelling “get the f outta here” to his teammates when getting an uncontested defensive rebound to pad his stats.

And I would have been way more accepting of Melo’s warts if he was on a team with someone who could get him to defer, like maybe CP3 (who can also be a hothead, but I digress…). Melo was probably worse…can you imagine prime Melo deferring to the likes of Jalen Brunson? He certainly didn’t defer to Jeremy Lin! (although he did slightly to Billups and Iverson, but again I digress…)

But that’s what Randle conjures up for me…a Melo-level star (statistically speaking) with similar warts who is at least deferring to the cooler-headed Brunson and who didn’t cost a max contract and a trove of assets to acquire.

The data on “average” return for picks 15-25 is not really all that useful in this discussion. First, draft picks in this range are hit-or-miss, and usually miss. Second, many of the hits often require 2-3 years of seasoning, and if they are truly hits, you get 1-2 years of cheap production and then have to pay them. I think looking at median data would be more useful, since the data is probably skewed by outliers on the high end.

If you ignore factors like injury risk (which can be a concern for any player) Hart is pretty much a sure thing to be far better than the median player selected in that range. Not to mention that he seems to make other players on the court with him better…meaning that the counting stats only tell part of the story.

Beyond that, the Knicks’ FO is clearly looking to maximize wins without a heavy cost in “win now” acquisitions. It’s hard to imagine a more perfect transaction in that regard than the Hart trade. You had insurance against it being a complete flop in the short run with the lottery-protection.

Honestly, I don’t know why we are even debating this, it’s such a clear win.

So our magic number vs. MIA is 6, right?

Their next 4 games: NYK, BKN, @TOR, @NYK
Our next 5: MIN, @MIA, @ORL, HOU, MIA

If our magic number isn’t down to 2 or lower by then, I’m going to be upset…but as I said, if we can’t win when we need to, we’re not going anywhere in the playoffs anyway, so no matter what happens against MIA I have faith that we can go at least 6-4 and get the job done.

As to BKN, our magic number with them is 8 but they are in freefall and their next 3 games are vs. CLE, CLE and @MIA. I’m conflicted about how I want them to do…is it really all that important to try to catch CLE?

These next 10 days should be fun!