Coming off of a win, the Knicks are really on a huge playoff push now, with the Knicks now 7-11 under new coach Mike Miller.
They head to Milwaukee to take on the best regular season team in the NBA.
Should be interesting.
Let’s go! Knicks?
Coming off of a win, the Knicks are really on a huge playoff push now, with the Knicks now 7-11 under new coach Mike Miller.
They head to Milwaukee to take on the best regular season team in the NBA.
Should be interesting.
Let’s go! Knicks?
200 replies on “2019-20 Game Thread: Knicks @ Bucks”
I doubt it will happen, but if Wooten dresses I want to see Miller throw him in the deep end and run with Giannis. I think the end of bench 2-way player gets destroyed by the reigning MVP, but fuck it, lets see if he sinks or swims.
Enter The Woo-ten.
Hubert, I am at the bar, how do I recognize you?
From ESPN. Sounds like another reason not to want Drummond.
KnickFanInNJ and I are sitting at the bar bonding over not wanting to trade for Andre Drummond
hubie shared this photo a couple of years ago while doing his modeling stuff…
*spoiler alert*
the knicks lose this game
Well this game should be well over before the Democratic debate starts
I vote we put Mitch on Giannis and just see how it goes
Randle’s trying at least
I’m starting to hate Bullock’s quick trigger
dotson bricklaying tonight
Brandon Clarke and Ja Morant have scored 17 points on 7 shots so far.
Randle is is showcasing his talents.
Giannis really makes a defense look porous. I mean, it is porous but, you know, porouser.
Mitch had been doing okay on giannis but he got cooked on that last possession
man giannis against our 2nd unit is just atrocious….
Giannis is a beast.
But the Bucks surround him with a deep, deep team. Kyle Korver is the 11th man in and Robin Lopez didn’t dress.
Bucks seem like they changed strategies attacking Mitch on Giannis, threes and picks freeing other players. Also wow did Mitch get shook on that crossover.
Wooten?
I don’t think 28% FG is gonna get it done tonight
Knox came to ball again tonight.
Randle showing up.
Can’t say the same for the rest
Kevin “Mr. Dimes” Knox is showing out
why is portis in… why…
Mitch misses another shovel pass…
Bucks are an interesting team. It’s a lot of guys who were the second or third best player on a bad team. And then Giannis. None of them really jump off the page. But it’s a great team.
put in kenny wooten!
Non-Randle starters a very normal 2-12
It’ll be a happy day when I don’t have to watch Bobby Portis in a Knicks uniform
Julius Randle stop travelling challenge
giannis is a monster
i’m sensing this may be a straight dvr delete type game…i’m guessing i can figure out something more entertaining to do with my evening…i haven’t brought out the vice and ball peen hammer for a while…
Who is Donte Divincenzo???
I ref high school basketball and I call that shuffling the feet travel at least once a game.
But I’ve never called it twice on the same kid. Cmon Julius!
He was the NCAA tournament MOP one of the years Villanova won a title
Did you watch the 2018 NCAA championship game? He was ridiculous in that game for Nova
I’m not a huge NCAA guy, I’ll watch the tournament sporadically. I’m becoming more of a fan, because thinking about Knicks picks are more exciting than the Knicks
Donte is a pretty amazing story. He had a nice season for Nova but nothing earth shattering, had a crazy good final college game and mostly based on that game got picked 17th by the Bucks.
And now he’s a very productive NBA player.
Dante’s athletic testing at the draft combine was also very strong
still at work – let me live vicariously through you TNFH…whatcha all drinking man…what did you end up eating, how was it…does hubert really look like a sexy underwear model type dude…details, details, details…
Pat Sullivan is a big guy
Legit never occurred to me that Payton could get ejected from a game. Huh.
Sharpshooters Dotson and Bullock a combined 0-13.
RJ strokin the 3
RJ looking like Allan Houston with his 3pt stroke tonight.
Did Barrett have an exorcism or something…. 5-6 from deep and 4-4 from the line.
Maybe just having that succubus Keith Smart removed…..
Really nice to see RJ busting his ass out there and seeing his 3’s and FTs fall. Maybe there is hope.
I turned to the Democratic debate on CNN. It went to break. I switched back to the Knicks and saw the score and turned back to CNN to watch the commercials.
It really bothers me that Damyean Dotson and Bobby Portis will run a two-man game when RJ Barrett is on court. I find this team goes too many possessions in a row without directly involving RJ.
I stopped watching at the half, wish I’d seen RJ go off tho
Who’s #14?
I’m also worried that Mitchell Robinson may never be a starter in this league. I’m growing tired of his inconsistency when it comes to personal fouls.
just looking at the box score…it looks like mister mitch is having some kind of recent regression…
Sometimes, while watching these things play out*, I find myself thinking “Bobby Portis is a decent backup 4.”
*Difficult to qualify this sort of thing as a ‘game.’. “Do you even watch the games?” “I watch the Knicks?”
bingo…don’t think i’ve watched any other teams for a full game yet this whole season…that houston and memphis game looked like it was fun though…
Houston is unwatchable when Harden bounces the ball for 20 seconds and then hoists up an off balance 28 footer to go 13-39 from the floor. He played like vintage Jamal Crawford the last 8 minutes
Great meetup tonight. Nothing encapsulates the knickerblogger experience more than 6 strangers heartily enjoying a great conversation while the team is down 30 and no one is paying attention.
The highlight of the conversation might have been when “Nah Nah” posed the following question:
“What circumstances would need to occur to get JK47 to play guitar for JD & the straight shot.”
The conclusion we came to is there would have to be a threat to one of his loved ones (wife, child, etc.) because JK47 himself would easily choose death
I was just thinking…If B Street could talk…
-Diplomatic immunity from murder
-A massive stroke
-A majority ownership stake in the Knicks
-Hiring dibs on the next GM
Well JK could “accidentally “ swing his guitar wildly during a guitar ride and clock JD in his dumb head. That I’d pay to see.
I actually came up with the answer while I was walking home.
It would have to be a Back to the Future kind of thing where JK47 accidentally interruped his father’s courtship of his mother and needed to get them to kiss at the Enchantment Under the Sea Dance, where JD is scheduled to play but is about to cancel the show bc his guitarist cut his hand.
Wish I could have made it.
Yep, sorry to miss it also
We also had the obligatory Frank argument so it really felt like home. One question “what would it take to consider Frank a success (besides great stats). One answer was starting point guard on a winning team (i.e. 42 wins or more)
I learned that defending Frank is so much harder when you have to look another person in the face and do it.
I’ll do a quick recap in case Farfa can’t get to it –
– Giannis scored 37 points in 21 minutes and barely broke a sweat
– We can’t defend the 3 point line (news flash)
– RJ had a very nice game, if he could maintain some semblance of decent 3 point shooting he could be a really productive player
– RDWRD – Randle did what Randle does
– Our shooters can’t shoot
Pretty much on point d-mar.
Right now I’m far from home and nursing the Ragnarok of food intoxications, so hard pass on this recap. The good news is that if you’ve already barfed the universe before watching the Knicks you’re at least safe from their vomit inducing play.
“The Ragnarok of food intoxications?”
That’s the recap we need 😉
Hope you are having an awesome time in Sicily…
It’s Sardinia (the homeland of Lady Farfa) but yes, apart from this terrible dizziness and the Fizdale magic that got a hold of my stomach thanks to a spoiled olive, everything is amazing.
Especially the seafood, as always; oysters, sea urchins, mussels, clams, shrimps. Top three in the world.
I’m thinking about coming back to NY in the spring to visit family. Might have to plan my trip around a KB viewing party of a meaningless late-season, lottery-odds-crushing Knicks win against a playoff team resting their starters.
If only I were within 2,000 miles of NY would have been nice to join you all, sounds like a fun time. Definitely more fun than watching Dotson and Bullock laying enough bricks to rebuild Milwaukee several times over
Feel better Farfa and enjoy Sardinia!!
I assume Wooten didn’t make it to Milwaukee in time? Otherwise a perfect game for him
@d-mar, you forgot Payton’s ejection!!
My day rate for playing guitar for The Straight Shot is $1 million per gig, $500K per rehearsal.
Call me, Jimmy.
last night in the bucks broadcast steve novak said that in 2012 he was invited to the dunk contest. apparently the nba really wanted someone to dunk over jeremy lin on a couch bc he was sleeping on landry fields’ couch. landry was the original invite but had to beg out because of injury. then they asked jr smith who demurred for reasons not recalled. then they asked novak (!), who declined.
presumably (but not mentioned) it was only then that they asked shump, who accepted, but eventually bailed due to injury, relegated the jeremy lin couch dunk to the dustbin.
I’ll do it for half that, Jimmy! Of course, I don’t know how to play any other instruments than the saxophone and I last touched one of those in middle school, but that just means you don’t have to feel intimidated by your bandmate’s successful music career!
also if you have league pass you need to watch the grizz. they are incredibly fun to watch even if you control for my stan crush on melton. they have been finishing games with morant melton brooks/crowder jjj and clarke, just a really dynamic, unusual group on both ends. imagine flubbing doncic and still having such a nicely positioned stable of assets.
Down to go to a meetup (Clydes Wine and Dine anyone). I couldn’t last night as my buddy is a huge jazz fan and got tickets to watch the park slope nets.
@73
I watched the entire 4th yesterday and I was so impressed, it seemed like they would collapse but they just kept playing defense and hitting shots. Morant was sublime, JJJ had a great block on Harden and Melton is a legit role player.
1. I’m fairly sure Payton is a little better than he’s been showing in NY so far based on the healthy stretches he’s had elsewhere, but I think we are starting to get to the point where’s it time to concede he’s a backup PG and unlikely to break out much further at 25.
2. Randle is playing better, but I still think there’s an issue with spacing around the rim and the fact that he’s a primary option in NY and defenses are keying on him more in NY than they did elsewhere. If we ever add a star player than can shoot and think he’ll be alright.
3. RJ may be catching his second wind after Fiz ran him into the ground for awhile.
4. This groin issue with Frank is becoming a problem. If he eventually needs surgery to correct it, that will become a major setback to his development in the way Dotson’s off season surgery seems to have stalled his progress and set him back. In the mean time missing games at the exact point he was starting to break out a little is not helping.
5. Mitch needs to expand his game or some teams or going to continue to be able to take him out of the game enough to sharply reduce his potential impact.
6. teams are getting physical with Doncic, he’s still trying to do too much, he’s missing the KP space & help D, and he’s starting to come back to earth from the combination.
I had to resist a strong urge to post the combined line for Morant/Clarke/Melton
Here we go.
I generally assumed Elf’s TS% would make its way back to at least .500. Instead it’s getting worse. He shows every other skill you want. Did he and Frank have a Freaky Friday swap on their shooting strokes?
Randle would be great next to a Brook Lopez or late career Marc Gasol type. Terrible next to Mitch who can’t even shoot midrange shots like Taj. Breakout the Mitch 3!!! (Honestly I think the clogged paint is part of why Elf is shooting so terrible. Lots of Knicks taking fewer paint shots this year, Elf included.
I think we just have to live with Frank missing 5-10 games a year for the groin
I was curious what would happen if I looked at Luka’s recent game log.
He is averaging 28-10-8 this month, albeit on marginally lower shooting %, largely due to a 4-15 performance vs Philly in which he still managed to score 19 points on 15 shots with 12 assists and 8 rebounds in an 18 point win.
If that’s “down to earth”, how subterranean are our players?
Why would I care about Clarke going 6-7 for 14 points and 7 rebounds in 24 minutes when I could have Bobby Portis, who’s a year and a half older, making more this season than Clarke will make over his first four seasons, who performs significantly worse in this, his 5th NBA season, according to literally every metric we have available to us?
Any more horrific 19-year-old scorers in the top 10 this year? Sign me right the fuck up.
Imagine being so enamored with an underperforming tall guy that you squint at a 4-game stretch in an MVP-caliber season to suggest that the tall guy’s mere presence on the floor is the reason that the MVP candidate is having a mild slide from otherwise-historic heights. Amazing.
Yeah, I know, some guys have a tough time dealing with the realities of the game and would prefer to just look at the boxscore, but Doncic is getting his ass kicked almost every night by physical defenses when he goes inside, the Mavs are complaining about it to the refs and the league, his efficiency is falling because of it, and the other teams keep waltzing to the rim because Doncic can’t stay in front of anyone and their only help defender and rim protector is out.
Doncic is an all time great prospect at 20, but how this guy is in the conversation for MVP is laughable. It has to be because he’s white and the league is desperate for another white superstar. We should have that conversation in another 2 years when he gets in better shape and learns how to use his enormous talents and skills to play smart basketball.
I put $10 last night on Frank hitting .100 WS/48 by 2023. And I only had a few drinks!
JK, I’m a little disappointed, because I argued that no amount of money would get you to play with the Straight Shot. I was in the camp it would take family issues that could only be resolved by a sudden influx of cash. You’ve let me down, man.
At least the game wasn’t a letdown – because we watched maybe two minutes of it, tops. As KFinNJ or maybe Glidepath said, it was the perfect game for a meetup, because there was no reason to pay attention. The outcome was preordained….
Coming from a guy that hasn’t watched more than a couple of Dallas games all season and probably wouldn’t notice the defensive adjustments and physical beating Doncic has been taking over the least 6-7 games even if he had.
Shouldn’t be too hard to do.
I’ll leave. There’s much point in me discussing basketball here and just riling people up.
this should be bookmarked, as it might be the worst KB post of the decade and we’re only 15 days in
I’m not half the musician that JK47 is, but I would play for far less than his day rate only to have some juicy first-hand stories for y’all
Also I would platonically seduce him to convince him to sell the team
to DRed
Jaren Jackson is currently shooting 41.5% from three on a higher rate than KP. With a ts% over 60%. And he isn’t constantly injured.
Please don’t. I can only speak for myself, but I believe your contributions here are very valuable.
My apologies if I came off too harsh. You just have this thing where you try to will things into existence by saying them repeatedly.
It’s really hard to make an evidence-based case to support your claim that KP’s absence is hurting Luka.
Only because you demonstrated the kind of person you are by leaving off the “let’s have this conversation in 2 years when he’s in better shape and learns how to play the game correctly” part. IMO, anyone that thinks the current Doncic is in the same galaxy as James, Giannis, or Kwahi right now doesn’t know anything about basketball.
Dude, you’re arguing that a guy at ~.600 TS% on 37% usage with like a million triple-doubles on the league’s best offense — leading #2 Houston by three goddamn points per 100, which is a fucking chasm — is somehow less than a top-5 player in the league right now.
It’s a ridiculous position to take. This is not a grey area. He is clearly one of the league’s best players, matador defense or not.
If this is not playing the game “correctly,” I don’t know what is. He has a 47% AST rate and can’t legally drink yet.
Here’s a question, Strat:
How did the Mavs go from a 109.4 ORtG (20th) to a 117.1 ORtg (1st, higher than any of the GSW teams between 2014-2019) in the course of one offseason?
Unless of course you actually watch basketball games and see what is happening on the court in terms of offensive and defensive adjustments and how it’s impacting various players. People are looking for basic boxscore stats, but the reality is on the court. The stats are our flawed attempt to try to capture it best we can.
Maybe some of what the coach has to say about what is blatantly obvious to someone watching all the Dallas games like I do will help.
https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2020/1/14/21063961/mavericks-opponents-are-living-in-the-paint-with-kristaps-porzingis-out
https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/01/05/rick-carlisle-frustrated-with-increasingly-physical-play-against-luka-doncic/
https://www.talkbasket.net/63472-luka-doncic-on-whether-teams-get-physical-against-him-its-true
Strat states his opinions straightforwardly and I’m fine with that. It’s not outrageous to suggest that having KP on the floor makes life easier for Doncic.
I appreciate you Strat. We often disagree, but you make good faith arguments. Some posters can’t say that
Like, 16 hours ago I pledged to spend less time arguing with Strat. Seems like he caught word of that and is testing me.
Joe Morgan smdh
O’rly??? Payton is shooting poorly because “Randle is clogging the paint?”
Have you ever looked @ Payton’s career shooting stats? Over 10,600 minutes he shoots a whopping 29.8% from 3 and an abysmal 62.7% from the line!! I’m trying to think of a point guard EVER shooting 62% and off the top of my head I can’t. I don’t think Randle clogging the lane has effected his FT shooting %. From 0-10 feet HE IS SHOOTING A HIGHER % THAN LAST YEAR!
HE JUST CAN’T SHOOT THE EFFING BASKETBALL….PERIOD. His intense suckitude shooting the ball limits him to a limited 12-18 minute back up on a decent team.
The bard of Oradell, NJ once said, “You are what your record says you are!”
His full season includes mostly games WITH Porzingis and Hardaway spacing, without teams realizing they have to get physical with him inside to wear him down, and without KP cleaning up the mess every time he gets beat.
His last 7 or so games include various combinations of him getting the shit beat out him by defenses which caused his TS% to fall “for the period” and watching players blow by him with no one there to help.
No amount of getting physical is going to stop James, Khawhi, or Gainnis. Plus, all 3 of those guys are huge pluses on defense instead of clear negatives. Doncic is not in the conversation with them YET. If you need a dictionary to look up the definition of “YET” I’ll provide one.
He has enormous talent and skill, but he’s negative defender and he’s in a perfect situation for his skillset when the team is healthy (4 players out making space so he can get inside). He’s not in the same class as those other guys and has a lot to learn to maximize his skillset.
A big part of Doncic’s efficiency drop over the past 8 games has been a 10% dip in FT% that is all thank you
I’m trying to think of a point guard EVER shooting 62% and off the top of my head I can’t.
rondo
Strat, I’m puzzled about how KP is supposed to help with defenses that play physical against Doncic. Is KP supposed to be some Oakley-esque enforcer? Will bricking a bunch of 3s and mid-range 2’s force defenses to not foul Doncic hard? What even is this argument?
Doncic is still putting up great #’s, in January, without KP. Hubert already pointed out that there’s only been a slight dip in TS% w/ a very small sample size. He’s one of the best players in the league with or w/o KP.
Kawhi is shooting a career worst in eFG% but ok
I didn’t get this, either. But yeah, I haven’t watched the games. I’m happy to listen to you tell me why you think teams are getting physical with Doncic now but were unwilling or unable to do that when Porzingis was there.
I’m sure you’re right that the Mavs could use KP’s rim protection when Doncic gets beat. We all agree that’s the elite part of KP’s game.
It’s me that should pledge to not discuss anything with you until you learn something about basketball.
I am actually watching the games (for 50 years) and seeing the offensive and defensive adjustments taking place on the court. I’m trying to bring some life to the stats and explain why we see some variations over and above randomness (including the impact of beating the shit out of a guy impacting his ability to shoot).
I’m not a coach or even an “Xs”and “Os” expert. I don’t claim to be. But I’m well beyond just looking at the boxscore. I made money gambling on this game at one point.
When I tell you that space matters, that teams are getting way more physical with Doncic inside, and it’s starting to wear him down and beat him up, it’s because I’ve seen all the games and can see it in his body language, effort, and shots. He’s been hurting a little and dragging his ass around the court at times in a way that was not true earlier in the season. He needs help and more space.
If I say he and others are getting beat and KP is not there to help now, it’s because I see it so often it starts to make an impression. That causes me to look at data and see what Carlisle is saying about it in interviews.
You and others seem to want to believe everything can be reduced to single number.
In some idealistic world that would be true, but it’s not true in ours. Stats are incredibly important, but we don’t have the entire story in the numbers yet and the models available to fans suck. You have to watch the games carefully and see the how and why things are happening.
I vote for leaving Strat in peace.
Although I think it’s pretty clear that Luka is what he is with or without KP on the floor as someone said.
that has to be one of the odder comments i have ever read posted here…well done sir, good work indeed…
i’m going to spend some of the day thinking of something even weirder than that to write down…a very challenging and noble pursuit i would say…
It’s never going to eliminate it. But he’s a big boy. He better get used to harder fouls.
It’s kind of like what Randle is going through now in NY . If there’s a lot more space, you can get to the rim one on one and finish or draw a foul easier. If help defense comes, you are sometimes driving into a wall and taking more and harder contact.
There’s less help defense when KP (and even Hardaway this year) are standing outside because they are afraid to leave KP alone even several steps beyond the line.
People talk about hockey assists, screen assists, and even Koby assists (lol), but creating space or drawing double teams in the post (like Shaq, Kareem, Hakeem) is similar. It creates easier shots for your teammates even if you never touch the ball.
preach baby preach…i be trying to tell this shit to people all the time…mothfuckers just need to recognize already…
eyes > numbers
let ’em know: we don’t need no stinkin’ badges strat…
I would trade our entire roster for Luka, and probably throw in a few picks as well.
Give me Luka and a bunch of G leaguers and I’ll still watch every minute of every game he’s on the court.
He’s a once in a lifetime, transcendent talent.
Link
For anybody to lazy to click on the link, that’s the complete list of teams in history to post an ORtg greater than 117. It’s one team – this year’s Mavs.
123 in the minutes Doncic has played without KP
Wait, the Mavs have a 123 o-rating with Luka out there without KP?
That is nuts. How many minutes is that?
And that’s match
We’ve seen this play before.
Step 1: Strat makes a point that seems highly questionable at best and insists that anyone who disagrees is a simpleton
Step 2: Strat is empirically proven to be incorrect
If the formula holds, we’ve now reached Step 3: Strat stops responding, but comes back within a few days to make the same point that was proven wrong.
500 min
TNFH, you forgot the most important step of all, Step 4, where once Strat responds with his nonsense, you then spend half of your day and 1000 words to refute said nonsense. And that, my friend, is the cycle of life (KB style).
Ruruland > Carmelo Anthony >> Strat > Kristaps Porzingis
Payton’s career TS% is right around .500. He’s been over .500 each of the last 3 years.
If you bother looking at the numbers, Elf’s percent of shots from 0-3 ft dropped from 40% to 30%.
The paint is too crowded because we don’t have shooters. I’m not saying Elf would hit 40% of his shots from 3 or 90% of his FTs. Elf would be able to take 40% of his shots as layups like he has every single year in the league.
But go ahead and raze those strawmen to the ground.
I oftenly agree with Strat and many times feel that he’s expressing what I’m thinking too but my laziness and lack of good english don’t ‘allow’ me to do.
In KPs case i believe too that he’s a special player and despite having not seen all Dallas games this season i must admit that KPs game don’t seem to me so good so far.
A slight confusion between projection, reality and desire to be correct/prophet can sometimes blur someone’s vision and make him seem ‘strange ‘ but that don’t mean he don’t know shit.
He just ‘gambled’ too much on that one.
But offensive rating is just a number! Points scored and points allowed are just numbers! They will never reflect reality!
The strat cycle has gotten to a point where I just can’t honestly answer without joking or being ironic. It’s a shame because it keeps clogging every thread with the same idiotic shit, but oh well, I guess I’m not helping either with this post so let’s leave it at that.
When the facts aren’t in you favor pound the table. Payton’s lack of shooting efficiency is because he sucks as a shooter, not some roto rooter effect of Randle clogging anything..
Some facts:
Randle is shooting 31% of his shots from 0-3 feet this year vs 45% last year. Randle is shooting 28% of his shots from 3 vs 18% last year. He is demonstrably spending more time away from the basket than ever.
Payton is shooting 58% from 0-3 feet this year vs 54% last year. His problem is he can’t get to the rim as well (hamstring issues?). Plus the fact that everybody knows he can’s shoot so the lay off him to protect against him driving.
When you shoot 25% from 3 and 53.6% from the line your shot is broken….
The fault dear Brutus is not in our stars, but in ourselves that we are underlings
Elf is having a poor season by his own standards, and then his own standards themselves are not sky-high, so…
He’s a stopgap guy at PG really, not a long-term piece. He’s still on the team and I’ve already forgotten that he ever played for us.
I literally can’t believe how broken Payton’s shot is. It’s like he can’t process the concept of arc.
Isn’t there some kind of training aid that might help him? Like a glass wall that he’d have to shoot over?
it’s okay, sit this one out strat…I got this…
step 1 – refute or minimize the data:
yeah nice numbers, no doubt i could go online right now and find 2 or 3 other reference items that state the exact opposite of this supposed god like performance reflecting the very limited scope of offensive ratings…
the only thing is though, I don’t really need to waste my time, because that’s stuff is irrelevant if you really watch the games…
step 2 – muddy the water as much as possible:
as great as doncic is, he’ll never be as tall as KP…
step 3 – indiscrimately attack those who oppose your view:
the only reason you all are so against KP is because you hate lithuanians and people from the balkans in general…how sad…
step 4 – double down on your position…
we’ll see what happens down the road when KP’s waiving from the stage at Canton down to his buddy luka sitting in the stands and hoping to maybe make it in to whatever euro ball hall of fame situation exists…
step 7 – cover your trail:
if things don’t quite work out the way you predict, blame it on the misinterpretation of your words by others…
this arguing stuff is easy…I should have gotten in to this debate thing earlier…I feel like I’m really good at it…
Bobneptune is pounding the table an awful lot…
is it wrong to hope kyrie spontaneously combusts at some point while walking the ball up the court…
Yup…. I pounded the table with numbers…. I suck!
Yeah…. I forgot to take Randle’s Elfrid Kryptonite Effect !!!
Payton’s ball handle while shooting mid rangers look like he burnt his fingers while pan frying fishes.
okay mister I don’t know english so well, how in the heck then are you able to put together stuff like this:
actually, I know we have a few folks here for whom english is a second or third/etc. language they’re fluent in…
still though, I would think using metaphors and analogies in a different language/culture would be incredibly difficult…
Nothing brightens up my day more than coming home from work and reading a KB thread. I freaking love this place.
I don’t know if “Using metaphors and analogies in a different language/culture world” is incredibly difficult but it’s definitely risky since many sayings have different meanings in many countries.
It’s as risky as a Frank drive and ‘in your face dunk’ but also equally rewarding!
Please bookmark this thread for the next time this Luka nonsense comes up
It helps if you understand what the numbers mean and don’t throw out arbitrary numbers. You’re bringing Pointzzz thinking to a TS% fight.
Let’s breakdown Elf’s numbers, (using eFG% instead of TS% because it makes the math simpler):
By necessity, a decrease in percentage of shots at the rim results in an increase in shots elsewhere on the court.
Compared to his career numbers the decrease in 0-3 ft shots has shown up in the midrange, the worst place it can show up.
Elf shoots 58% from 0-3ft, 39% from 3-10ft, and 35% from 11-16ft
When Elf takes 10% of his shots from 0-3 ft and moves it to the 3-16 ft range, his eFG% drops by .20. We can represent the effect on his eFG% with the equation: % of shots taken * % change = .100*-.200 = -.020. So if Elf’s eFG% is .500 it drops t0 .480 by shifting his shooting distribution. This year Elf is actually shooting worse from midrange (likely variance) so the real world number is -.030, whereas -.020 is the expected number.
If we account for Elf’s increase in 0-3 ft % (which is in fact a regression to his career avg of .58). The formula is 30% * 4% = .300 * .040 = .012. The change in eFG% is half the change we get from shot distribution. Moreover, the real value is not .012 but a slightly negative number if we use his career rate as a baseline and attribute random variance to the insignificant changes.
Elf’s 3p% is down ~.050 from his career average and he takes 20% of his shots from there. So .050 * .200 *1.5 (correcting for 3pts instead of 2pts) = .015. So this real world number is worth ~1/2 the real world value from shot distribution. 3p% is extremely volatile so it’s entirely possible that the number will regress to .300 by the end of the year.
FTs are messy because it changes our %s so I’ve left them out, but generally the 0-3 ft range boosts FTA and raises TS% more.
#Numbers
And since you’ve cited Randle’s shot distribution as well, we can look at his numbers and think he’s drawing defenders away from the paint or we can look at his numbers and think he’s also struggling to get to the basket. Let’s go ahead and make the crazy assumption that Randle wants to take the most efficient shots. In that case Randle should be shooting in the 0-3 ft range as well where his eFG% is ~.620; his eFG% from 3pt range is ~.450. Randle has almost perfectly redistributed his untaken 0-3 ft shots to the 3pt line, amounting to 15% of shots. -.17*.15 = -.0255. But I’m sure that has nothing to do with his massive drop in TS%.
Randle isn’t spacing the floor, he just can’t get into the paint this year because the NYKs start 4 players who cannot shoot the ball. That or he really loves being as inefficient as possible.
Guess who else is taking the fewest shots from 0-3 ft of his career?? Marcus Morris.
RJ has no other data points.
Taj is incapable of shooting from anywhere else.
So yes. The clogged paint is a thing and it affects player’s scoring more than most other factors, especially for players who can’t hit threes.
Kristaps was a late scratch for the Mavs tonight
Early Bird, you are certainly correct that the changed shot distribution is affect Payton and Randle’s numbers this year, but I’m not sure it’s the Knicks players who are clogging the paint. Any opponent that has the personnel to do so is packing the paint against us because they know that’s where we score best from. That makes it harder for Randle to score close and makes it harder to Payton to get to the basket. Thinking about this, it’s actually really impressive that Barrett gets to the rim as much as he does and as a nineteen year old rookie too.
@135
A 25/17/15 triple double today on 18 shots, even while missing all his 5 threes… imagine thinking this kid isn’t a mega superstar already.
For all you Doncic fans, tonight was one of his better performances. He only forced a few bad shots and passes trying to do too much and only stole a few rebounds from teammates while stat stuffing, but otherwise all his talents and skills on offense were on full display. When he gets into top shape and can defend consistently, figures out that doing less can sometimes mean more at the team level, and controls his shot selection from outside better, he’s going to be scary good. Until then, the hype train will be way ahead of itself, because you know, boxcore.
just heard the kyrie interview about him saying his team needs some better players…what a clueless dick he truly is…
This kind of tripe isn’t even artful trolling.
One of his better performances???? The guy who is 2nd in the NBA in VORP, 2nd in the NBA in BPM, 2nd in assist %, 3rd in FTs, 4th in the league in assists, ws/48 and PPG has probably had a few “better” performances than just about every other player in the league not named LeBron or AD.
And…. oh…. he does all this incredible volume with a TS% of 60%
Is he a perfect player…. no. could he improve his defense and protect the ball a little better… sure.
But there is no logical way to call him anything other than a transcendent player today who is healthy, plays every game , elevates the level of the players around him and hasn’t reached legal drinking or smoking age.
I understand the desire to nut hug poor KP but fabricating and not accepting the transcendence of Luka just makes you look like a small person.
“For you Doncic fans” looks dangerously like “for you chocolate fans”
Find me someone in the whole basketball universe who doesn’t fully appreciate Luka
Self awareness is important!
How the fuck can one hold an opinion like this with a straight face
I’m an old metalhead, so when I saw boxcore, I thought to myself, “Hmm, metalcore, deathcore, mathcore, grindcore, is boxcore a new metal subgenre I haven’t heard of?” I don’t know, but I suspect I’d have a greater appreciation for boxcore than eyecore.
re: Doncic –
Strat – I often sort of agree with you, perhaps not in whole but at least some of the concepts.
Doncic is 20 freaking years old, leading a motley crew of dudes who honestly suck to one of the best offensive ratings in NBA history. The most used lineup with Luka is with KP, but the 2nd most used lineup has THJ, Dorian Finney Smith, Maxi Kleber, and Dwight Powell, and has an offensive rating of 131.5. At age 20 he is putting up numbers literally never seen before in the NBA, and dragging a really crappy team to a really good record. Sure teams are trying to beat him up, and it’ll probably have some effect because his usage is so high and he’ll get tired eventually. Even so, that stuff will not work when he’s 25.
At age 20 Kawhi had a usage of 14.5% and was like the 4th option on the Spurs.
At age 20 Lebron was great. basically unprecedented… averaged 23/6/6 on TS 55…. vs Luka 31/11/10 on TS 60
At age 20 Giannis averaged 14/8/3
Luka will probably never be the defenders that those 3 were/are, but honestly, we are talking about 3 of the greatest players in NBA history — possibly 3 of the top 10 players of all time. And Luka’s ceiling is not even here yet.
If I understand Strat correctly, he didn’t say Doncic was bad, but that he prefers James, Kawhi or Giannis as MVP candidates and doesn’t consider Doncic in their league yet. I understand a lot of you disagree, but he is being consistent in preferring two way players to players whose only major positive attribute is efficient scoring.
@150 – yeah Giannis is the MVP for sure. Ridiculous numbers, great on both ends of the floor, leading what will be one of the all-time great regular season teams.
Not related, but I have become a bit more bullish on Knox. Will never be a great player (certainly not defensively), but he’s finally a WS+ player and all of his peripheral numbers have improved since last year – steals, blocks, rebounds, turnovers. Those were the things I was most worried about — if it’s a matter of his jump shot, I kinda feel like that’s the thing most likely to be good for him. His passing actually has been surprisingly ok. Defense is still rough but every now and again he makes the right rotation (Baby steps!)
I agree that Doncic is not yet MVP material, but it’s mainly a narrative thing (second year player, not yet paid his dues, blah blah blah). If Dallas wins 50+ he should be at worst 4th in MVP balloting. Giannis should repeat in a landslide, LeBron will be second. Probably Harden third.
That said, what the hell was that thing about “you Doncic fans”?
I think we can all agree that Luka has some holes in his game still and also that he might be the best 20 year old the game has ever seen. His numbers are absurd and they are 26-15 with a bunch of journeyman and castoffs (and BOBAN!).
What rational person expects a 20 yr old to be in the real conversation for MVP?????? He is certainly among the top 10 players in the league and maybe the top 5 today. Is there a player you would trade him head up for today except maybe AD or G1annis???? Not me…..
Doncic has never won a playoff game. Can he ride when it’s ruff?
It’s possible Doncic has been playing a bit over his head for the first half of the season, but for the sake of argument if he’s really only the 10th most productive player in the league instead of the 2nd or 3rd that’s still crazy for a 20 year old.
May I suggest that, while he should be analyzed correctly and without bias, there should be no requirement that everyone actually like him?
I don’t. I don’t like his mannerisms, the way he wears his uniform, his beard, etc. Part of it might be that I don’t like anything about the Dallas Mavericks, either — including their coach who I’ve never liked going all the way back to his days as a Celtic or even UVA. There’s little arguing his quality, though, and it will be interesting to see how he plays in the playoffs. I’m hoping he falls flat on his face.
No, that’s what he pivoted to.
His original position was that Doncic is now struggling bc Porzingis is out. KP’s absence, he said, has freed teams up to beat up on Luka in ways that they couldn’t do when Porzingis was on the floor.
It’s all part of his narrative that Luka needs KP, who has massive value that the box score can’t capture.
In reality, Luka is performing extremely well without Porzingis, and Porzingis continues to be an overrated overpaid chucker with good rim protection.
I created a proposal to trade Marcus Morris on the Knicks DAO. I realize the site is difficult to understand and use, but we’re working on it.
Until it has a better UX/UI I’ll create proposals on my own from time to time, hoping to reflect the blog’s opinion (nothing formal obviously). We’d be able to look at them in the history screen and see a track record of our collective intelligence.
The trade Morris proposal is here.
By all means dislike Luka if you have to but personally I can’t understand how the heck anyone could. He’s a joy to watch. Except that it’s very painful because he could and should be a Knick. I literally can’t turn on a Mavericks game without thinking about Luka in the Garden.
But yeah, mileage may vary.
The Mavs have a pretty huge split making them the 3rd best team in the league, 1st in offense and 17th in defense. I wonder how anomalous that is historically.
Also, that Mavs roster is total rubbish. It’s an All Star group of castoffs and journeymen, absolutely classic NBA flotsam and jetsam. It’s a heavy lift and Luka has made it look pretty easy so far.
I agree he probably only go down from here but you have to appreciate what he has done.
2004-05 Phoenix Suns finished 1st in ORtg and 17th in DRtg and had 62-20 record. The Spurs defeated them in the WCF.
I guess that makes Luka the new Steve Nash. Seems about right.
A mavs-rockets playoff series would be pretty interesting
I like RJ and I’m fairly optimistic about him becoming a very good NBA player, but every time I watch Ja Morant or check out his box scores, I get really pissed that Memphis got him and we didn’t. I mean, ok, we didn’t get Zion, but could we at least get the 2nd pick?
He would have completely transformed this franchise.
Strat starts with a core thesis and works backwards from there. He’s made a lot of claims that KP is a great player and that Phil Jackson was actually a pretty good GM, and he’s gonna make everything fit in with those concepts. He’s not gonna be backing down from any of that regardless of what actually happens on any basketball court.
There’s an actual great player on the Mavs? Well, a lot of the reason he’s great, you’d know if you watched the games, is because KP does so many asskicking non-boxscore things, take KP away and all of a sudden that Luka guy is not so great. Point out that the Mavs offensive rating is even better without KP? Don’t expect that to get addressed, instead expect “do you even watch the games doe” and “boxscore shmoxcore.”
I’d feel bad about piling on but this is the guy who told me “stick to music, you know nothing about basketball” so I feel pretty good about piling on. Luka Doncic is a Strat narrative-wrecker. We have years of Joe Morgan-quality takes coming, folks. Sit back and enjoy the lulz.
by BPM Ja Morant is the 4th most productive 23 years old and younger player on the Grizzlies. That team has a very bright future if they don’t get unlucky with injuries or do something stupid.
The Grizzlies’ team president:
But did he even watch the games?
The Grizzlies’ EVP of Basketball Ops:
I wonder if he has 40+ years of experience watching basketball so he actually knows what the fuck he’s doing.
And the craziest thing is that most of the hype around Doncic is because he plays the game in an insanely exciting way to watch. If you take away all the numbers and think about who are the top players in “watchability”, he has to be at the very least in the top 3 right? I’d much rather watch him throw cross court passes and fool defenders for an entire game than watch Leonard hit mid range jumper after jumper with clockwork efficiency, or Giannis barreling down defenders who are outmatched.
He should be the king of the eye test, a guy you can instantly see is special when you watch a quarter of him playing. Just like Curry, LeBron or Durant, the numbers back up everything we’re watching on the court, which is the mark of a true superstar, all-NBA talent. I’ve always hated the Mavs because I can’t stand Cuban, but I find myself watching Mavs games just to see what the guy is going to do.
Ja is another very impressive 20 year old. Doesn’t hurt quite as much watching Luka but it’s not that far off. Will be interesting to see what kind of sophomore leap he makes.
I somehow was able to put together enough search terms to find my speculation before the draft, as to whom we’d want to pick #2 to ensure that he’d be available (and hopefully Barrett would not be) at #3.
https://knickerblogger.net/knicks-morning-news-2019-03-22/#comment-653526
Clearly PHX was looking for a point guard (Rubio at 3/$51M), so I was likely right about that one. Cleveland took pure-PG Garland at #5, so it stands to reason that Morant would have been a possible pick at #2. Atlanta would have been crazy to take him, but they also selected Reddish and Hunter, so they have no fucking idea what they’re doing. Chicago took Coby White, so yeah, again, another combo guard that could have been taken to groom into a PG.
Dolan’s Razor prevails.
I personally love watching Giannis mash dudes into paste in the paint, but Doncic’s creativity and touch around the rim is a beautiful thing. He’s going to be a Mav for the next ten years plus, so we might as well get used to it.
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I’m fine with RJ; he’s going to be the perfect Robin to the Batman the franchise still needs. Love his maturity, his defense, his handle, his ability to get to the hole, and now that Keith Smart has been dismissed, his FT shooting has really come around. When/if it ever comes to pass, he will be emotionally fine with being a 1A or 2 guy; he doesn’t have that Iverson/Melo thing where you can’t bring in another star because their personalities are so warped and their egos so massive. I’m very bullish on him.
And, hey look — Kyrie’s throwing his teammates under the bus after a 6 for 20, minus-27 effort again! Signing him would have been an epic disaster.
Irving’s speech pattern reminds me of the very dumbest students I had teaching college writing.
Yeah, at least we can feel good on the Kyrie/Durant decision, but dammit, this upcoming draft will be big, so we really need to keep losing.
If we stay in the 1 – 7 range, who do you take? Cole Anthony, LaMelo, and Edward all look like massive risks.
Oh yes! For one, I’m on board with disliking his mannerism and root for him to lose every playoff game he’ll ever play. I’m just wired that way, I hate smug guys and chosen ones alike. Watching LeBron win three titles hurt physically.
The thing is, though, that “you Doncic fans” suggests there’s a very divisive argument about him. Well, there’s not. Strat is entitled to his opinion, of course, but “you Doncic fans” in this context looks like “you human people”, because it’s not fandom we’re (they’re?) discussing, it’s sheer production and winning numbers.
I stand by that.
Also, don’t let PTMilo see this Jowles. In fact, 2/3 of those players would currently rate as our best point guard…
I’d put Harden at the top of the list of players I don’t really enjoy watching. I get that his efficiency and scoring are historic, but his massive usage and endless parade to the free throw line is not really a fun viewing experience IMO.
I’m so glad the Knicks didn’t sign Kyrie Irving.
Harden averages 1.5 FGAs per 36 than Luka and his ftr is only slightly higher (.040). Harden takes 2 more FTs per 36. It’s one reason I’d like to see a Houston-Dallas series.
I kinda like watching Harden, just because he takes control of the game so much, but yeah, it gets repetitive after a while. I watch games almost every day, and I’ve watched plenty of Harden games where I wasn’t super entertained by it. Still love him as a player, but I’d rather watch Doncic, the Grizzlies or the Bucks right now as league pass teams.
per Woj:
Atlanta has traded guard Allen Crabbe to Minnesota for PG Jeff Teague and Treveon Graham, league sources tell ESPN. Hawks get a backup for Trae Young.
And the iso 3s. They are the worst.
I wish there were better ways to watch condensed games. I hate commercials and dead air.
Why do people dislike Harden taking tons of shots and fts but love watching Luka take pretty much the same amount of shots and free throws?
Doesn’t Minnesota need a PG now? Weird trade. Are they just tanking?
Carlos Beltran resigns.
I think the Astros stole a World Series win — I’m not interested in the butterfly effect shit, they cheated to get a competitive advantage — but seeing three prominent, well-regarded managers get absolutely hosed for their involvement? It’s a hell of a deterrent at the execution level.
No one’s going to do this bullshit again.
NBA condenses most games to 10 min of the scoring plays. Not great for defense viewing or how often guys miss, but gives a sense of player styles and what happens.
luka is the shiny new thing…. there’s lots of similarities with both him and harden… luka is probably as much of a whiner and flopper as harden is… but they similarly have great handles and don’t get any credit for their incredible athleticism…
altho strat is early on the anti-luka hate…. luka wasn’t on most ppl’s radar until basically a couple months ago…. there hasn’t been enough time for the lashback… the lashback will def come especially in this day and age…
Yeah, I want to see all plays, good and bad. I’m sure most of us agree that it’s pretty damaging (as a poster of this particular board) to be limited to successful plays.
Yeah, but this is solid gold. This is not sophomore-year Fox or rookie-year Tatum or Mitchell. Luka is already a superstar.
It’s hard to see him keeping this level of success for another 40 games — he’s currently shooting a stupid 75.9% from 0-3 with just 8 dunks (1.1% of his shots). But I will be surprised if he dips lower than .200 WS48 or 8 BPM, still an MVP-caliber season.
It will be robbery if he is not 1st-team All-NBA.
Right now it’s:
Harden
Luka
LeBron
Giannis
Davis
and I don’t think there’s much debate there. Maybe Jokic sneaks in there over Davis when Davis inevitably misses time.
As a Met fan who loved Carlos Beltran as a player, I gotta say I’m very glad that he stepped down.
I love baseball, I’m a bigger baseball fan than hoops fan, and this whole Astros thing is the worst. Fuck everybody involved in that scheme.
I think the Taubman thing was worse. Cheating is as old as baseball. This was just a new spin.
Not to say sexual harassment is new to baseball but the whole thing was completely despicable.
Speaking of baseball, would any of you Knickerblogger nerds have any interest in joining an Ottoneu fantasy baseball league if I set one up? It’s Fangraphs’ brand of fantasy, sabermetrically inclined, keeper leagues with auctions. Minor league prospects are also draft-eligible so if your team sucks and you want to tank, you can trade your win-now guys for prospects.
I’ve never played but it seems cool. Let me know if any of y’all are interested. I think the cheapest leagues are $20 a head.
I’d probably do it as long as no one tells my wife.
I’d prefer it be a weekly league though.
@#193 JK47
(long time reader/non-poster here). I’m a bigger Met fan/baseball guy having played in college and a little pro ball. But my main league takes up waaaay too much time for me as is. If you don’t get a lot of action for this league maybe you’d want to join that one. We might want to add one or 2 guys next year…and one of the members used to play drums in State Radio and the commish works at Universal Music Group.
put pete in…
@193 JK47
Fantasy Baseball – Interested.
I hate the highlights. Being in a different timezone if I watch the games I watch the replays and skip the commercials. It’s fun, and takes a lot less time.
Meanwhile, Markelle Fultx had a triple double last night in a 1 point win. If he can come right I will believe anything is possible for RJ.
I watched the Fultz full highlights. Those assists were pretty weird. He was just passing to covered guys who were hitting their shots. He looks really comfortable weaving through half-court defenses though, which is an impressive thing against that Lakers defense, even without Davis.