David Fizdale’s Knicks coaching career got a major jolt from the defibrillator on Thursday, with the Knicks getting a big, big victory over the Dallas Mavericks in the Garden. Two-thirds of the Knicks’ victories this season have hilariously come against a pretty decent Dallas Mavericks team. The Knicks clearly should pretend that every NBA team has offended them, as they are now 1-3 in “revenge games” with their only other win coming in Bobby Portis’ “revenge game” against the Bulls. Portis’ good initial game clearly led to him feeling sated, as he then sucked in the rematch.
Anyhow, if you’re Fizdale, then these next two games are ones you have circled in your calendar as, “Holy shit, these two games might save my job,” as the Knicks get two very winnable games here against the Charlotte Hornets and then the Cleveland Cavaliers. Two wins here and suddenly they’re 5-8 and that’s halfway respectable. I always tend to assume that the Knicks, all things being equal, will always trend towards the middle of the pack, since that’s the worst place to be when it comes to the draft, so I think we’ll see a period here where Fizdale’s coaching career gets off life support for a time.
If Fiz could somehow hold on to the job due to some good coaching on his part, I would be quite grateful, as I don’t want Steve Mills and Scott Perry hiring another coach at the moment, because Keith Smart is a real possibility and Mark Jackson always lurks out there, as well, as a sort of shadowy coaching monster, reading to fuck things up even further.
So here’s to you, Fiz, hopefully you figure some shit out and beat an overachieving Hornets team that is still just 5-7 (some fine coaching from Poppovich coaching tree hire, James Borrego).
Let’s go, Knicks!
224 replies on “2019-20 David Fizdale Coaching Death Watch: Game 3 – Knicks vs. Hornets”
another chance to own the garden…you would think that would be enough of a drug in of itself to inspire an athlete’s performance…
anyone at the game?
Fiz told the press tonight that he may play RJ more at the 3, and may play more of Frank and DSJ together. Both things we’ve been talking about lately. Hopefully he actually does it.
I’ll definitely miss the explosive PFfull and PGless lineups !
The Hornets are actually surprisingly decent, this has a huge chance of being the Malik Monk statement game.
On the subject of Robinson’s minutes, PTMilo notes a few days ago that the Knicks actually give up more points with Robinson on the floor than off. This got me thinking maybe his team defense isn’t good yet. If this is the case, maybe coming off the bench is appropriate. He will certainly get minutes either way.
stupid foul by randle. Already annoyed and its only the first few minutes.
like a pack of hungry dogs out there
Nice D!
Not bad !
Frank with a steal to RJ on the fast break. You love to see it.
rebecca reading knickerblogger on the sideline
FRANK TO MITCH
THE FRENCH CONNECTION
That was an outrageously disrespectful block my god
Almost like a normal nba team !
Man If there is a 3pt shot in the 1st the Hornets haven’t seen it yet.
Robinson is the player that the Hornets thought they were getting when they signed Biyombo.
lol that guy was so worried Mitch was going to swat his shit he tried to throw it over the backboard
Someone link me to the block
that quarter looked like a kid’s birthday party game with mitch as the angry ex d3 dad who decided to suit up
https://twitter.com/nyknicks/status/1195870365182025728?s=21
Link for the Mitch block
Three assists in that quarter for Magic Ntilikina
That was a massive brain fart by DSJ to finish the quarter. If he wants to get back into game touch you gotta actually be on the court. Not sitting the rest of the 1st in foul trouble
Portis is an overpaid God !
Ball movement has been fantastic so far. What is Frank’s PB for assists? Likely to break it if he keeps this pace up.
Someone please tell Knox to stick to shooting. Dribbling and passing aren’t in his repertoire.
i am so glad we didn’t give rozier any money….
Boy, I sure wish we’d run more of that PnR if Frank is going to be the PG.
More Taj. Less Randle and Portis.
Mitch Rob is just ridiculously good around the basket.
Whenever they show a closeup of Randle, this question flashes through my mind: “Why is young Bernie Mac wearing a Bernard King jersey?”
Randle is such a low-IQ ball player.
And more Mitch!
BTW, it looks like whenever Barrett drives he’s got two guys on him or one plus another shading him.
Except those last 2 baskets…
That should’ve been designed for Barrett to drive into the paint for that last shot, not Randle. He tries to play like a 3 when he’s on the perimeter but he clearly isn’t (as many of guys have pointed out).
Julius should see a therapist.
He believes his last name is Erving.
It does amaze me that it took Fizdale this long to figure a lot of things this board thought obvious from the jump this season. Play Taj and Mitch at Center, pair them with Portis or Randle, Barrett should play the 3, etc.
rj’s getting a lot more attention on his drives…. that’s probably why he’s working on his midrange game…
he needs to keep attacking unless he’s wide open….
Taj Gibson is a good basketball player
Nice to see the team play like an actual NBA team
It strikes me that Randle aspires to be Morris on offense. Bully your way everywhere and throw up a dumb shot.
Where’d this kid Graham come from?
kansas pg… lives and dies by the 3…. same exact game in college…
Damn Dennis got the Mitches
Back to shit mode
they’ve sank more 3s than 2s….
Maybe the Knicks should sell out to defend the 3-ball…
What happened to the rebounding though?
Wow, it came tumbling down fast.
That was nifty play from Frank
They should really pass the ball to Mitch and let him dunk it on every possession.
It does seem the Hornets have used the 3 to get back into it while their zone D is keeping the Knicks out of the paint.
That was a good find from Frank.
Just letting Mitch dunk the ball is super effective.
mitch has been open like every time in this zone…
finally bobby…. that play is there everytime!
It only took 13 games for everyone to realize that Mitch will dunk the basketball on 70% of the passes you throw to him
That was a crazy shot by Frank.
Pretty move from Frank but he should have passed to Mitch and let him dunk it.
MitchRob the Zone Buster!
it’s kind of crazy how charlotte just does not account for mitch on every play… i am so mad that nobody on the floor seems to realize this…
I’ll take more of that from Frank. Get into the paint and make some shit happen!!!
My God. This Mitch dunk on one foot.
jesus christ
I hope Mitch is OK.
Thank you Borrego
wtf just happened
wtf is that…. that’s on fizedale…. he pulled that same shit with mitch’s concussion….
PROTECT YOUR FUCKING PLAYERS
Give Mitch No19 !
Mitch hopped down the court on one leg, set a screen and then dunked the ball.
I wish the NBA was like MLB and the Knicks could extend Mitch for 10 years.
mitch should be sitting here
Mitch shouldn’t be out there
The RJ Barrett show!
7 of his last 8 on the line… good stuff rj…
RTrey!
Dubious foul call there
Randle took one shot too many going into a triple team.
Scared to watch this final possession….
Unbe-fucking-lievable.
HOW THE HELL DID HE HIT THAT?!?!?!!!
Lol what the fuck
son of a gun…
After spreading the ball we lived and died by Randle at the end.
lol knicks
That was a rough way to lose.
Really not sure why they didn’t draw up a play where Mitch dunked the ball for the last shot
What a crappy last play. How about running some screens or something?
Amazing what decent coaching and a 21st century looking roster can do even with little talent.
Changed my mind, fire Fizdale tonight. No excuse for not calling time when Mitch was limping around.
Man, what a shot from Graham. Heartbreaking but can’t be too mad when the guy hits one like this, he was very well guarded.
I’m very confused as to why Frank and Ellington were on the court for the final shot and not Barrett, who was pretty hot, but I guess the play was to go for Randle and it wouldn’t have mattered much.
I missed most of the game. Looks like DSJ went back to awful tonight? Frank still can’t hit shots (though decent secondary stats).
Why was RJB -10?
ARRRGGHHH!!!
We absolutely need a better late-game shot taker than Randle.
And Charlotte had us in defensive mismatches waaaaaay too much. Their guards are just too feisty for a big to contain them on the perimeter and we can’t have our guards routine get caught on post-ups late-game.
I mean, damn. I dunno how much you can put this one on Fizdale because he just doesn’t have the guard play and enough outside shooting. I dunno…
Lenny Wilkins got fired immediately after a loss at MSG similar to this one…..
Back-to-back games where one player beat us single-handedly with his three point shooting. Let’s see how Fiz will adjust….
lol, Fiz won’t adjust.
It was a brilliant play ATO by Borrego. Charlotte really is an example of what good coaching can do with a mediocre team.
tough loss… tough shot… this is what i’m talking about with frank… there’s really no reason he should be paying any attention to washington with 6 seconds on the clock….
fizdale needs to explain himself with not calling timeout playing 4 on 5…. and then putting him back in…. after pulling the same shit with his concussion…..
barrego has to fucking call a timeout for him! wtf is wrong with you!
@85 you know I did wonder if the Knicks would’ve been gutsy enough to try an alley/lob to Mitch. I think they could’ve caught the Hornets off-guard.
It’s becoming clear what has to be done but it’s still politically impossible.
Randle has to move to the bench.
He’s not a good fit with Mitch who has to be on the court and if he’s not an efficient scorer inside exactly why is he playing when he’s a negative on defense?
I’d go small and play Frank, Dotson, RJ, Morris, and Mitch, but if Fiz insists on going bigger, then use Portis at the PF. He’s no worse than Randall given these lineups but at least there’s likely to be more space for Mitch.
Randall is a good offensive player, just not in these lineups the way we are using him.
just saying if you’d played the guy who scored 17 points on 8 shots more minutes in the game you lost by 1 you probably would have won
Tbh i don’t feel so bad despite the heartbreaking Loss.
Fiz should go home.
And wins are keeping him around.
Too many mistakes.
Dennis just racked up a bunch of stupid fouls and couldn’t stay on the court
Soooo are we gonna talk about DSJ’s 5 fouls in 10 minutes or nah?
At the end I think he took Robinson out because he was hobbling. I was surprised he came back in.
They may have some kind of minutes restriction on him for reasons we aren’t aware of. He’s a young guy, lots of ankle injuries and recent concussion.
On the last play there was no reason to have Frank on the court unless he was inbounding the ball.
He was running the offense great all night, but there wasn’t enough time left to need that from him. They needed another shooter. It most likely didn’t matter, but over the very long haul mistakes like that will matter every once in awhile.
Compare our play out of the timeout with Charlotte’s play out of the timeout. One was an actual play that Charlotte had actually practiced, the other was “throw the ball to somebody and then shoot it.”
One was a swish, the other was an airball.
Some of the kids played good at times though, so I ain’t mad at this game.
They don’t run any set plays all game…. why should they begin with 2 seconds left?
DSJr is what he is.
He’s an amazing athlete with some PG skills but with a low BB IQ. Guys like that will do some amazing things and have some great nights that will encourage and mislead casual fans, but they give away more than give long term with blatant and sometimes subtle mistakes.
He’s young and may figure it out, but I have way more faith in young guys with high BB IQs to figure things out eventually than the other way around.
We have some good young pieces and in general I’d feel pretty good about the situation other than management and to a lesser extent Fiz. I just sort of wish Randall was one of the guys with a 1 year deal.i like him. He’s a good offensive player but bad fit and expensive and embarrassing to have on the bench. Not helping his trade value either.
Fiz tried to get the game by playing tough D and he almost succeeded till Charlotte started hitting its threes and making the so called zone look like a bad joke.
In the modern Nba you can’t give easy 3s to teams that don’t have dangerous slashers or dominant post players.
The game has changed.
12 games determine his next three years… expert analysis….
I was only joking about having Mitch in for the last play, but not starting Mitch so you can prioritize Julius Randle for some reason is why we lost this game. Mitch missed maybe 3 or 4 minutes because of his ankle. He played 26 minutes. He wasn’t in foul trouble and he is by a huge margin the best player on the team. Portis, Randle and Gibson were 14/30 for 35 points. Mitch scored 17 points on 8 shots. Get Mitch 5 more minutes and 3 more shots and the Knicks win the game. Big picture I understand it’s not that important that he’s not starting but not playing your best player the most minutes is going to lose you close games.
Charlotte was 17 for 48 from 3pt, Knicks 6 for 20.
Sounds like I missed a good Mitching. Love to hear that the Knicks are treating their best asset with the care he deserves.
If you are talking to me, I was one that kept saying before the season that Randall was a bad fit with Mitch (and he has been) and doubled down on it when I saw the rest of the team. So maybe I knew his skill set and the challenges he would face better than some other people. I was also on record saying there was a good chance his 3p% from last year was the fluke because teams preferred him shooting 3s than getting inside. That would change if he actually improved and he became a priority for the defense.
I’m hoping he and Fiz figure it out because he’s on the team and I like him. I wanted him with KP. but when it’s fairly obvious coming in there could be challenges and issues, that’s typically not the way you want to start off unless we are talking about great players. Randall is not a great player. He’s not even a VERY good player because of deficiencies on defense. He’s a good player.
@109
I honestly think some of the things Fiz is doing that don’t make sense are more or less forced by politics. Randall was the “Star” signing and is the highest paid player. Fiz understands the reasons Randall is struggling relative to expectations or hopes. So he’s trying to figure out how to make it work. That’s why you sometimes see Randall with Portis. He’s trying to help Randall get going. It’s a mistake though. Mitch is the player that belongs on the court and if Randall can’t get rolling in these lineups then Randall should come off the bench or something else must change. Good luck telling Mills that Randall is coming off the bench and he should explain that one to Dolan. Lol
Mitch did play a lot, but it made sense to take him out after he took that hit to the ankle. He was very strong today, was everywhere on the boards. I didn’t think Randle was too bad today either, he made a couple of interesting passes, he just seems to be trying to do way too much and failing at it. In the end we have a bad team with few offensive options and a coach that has not installed a coherent offensive scheme, and it’s so damn obvious to see. Every time the ball moves and the players are getting into good positions, something good happens, there were good moments of Frank and others finding teammates for good shots… but they’re just few ans far between in the middle of a ton of bad ISOs by guys like Morris and Randle who should never be going ISO in the first place. There’s still way too many possessions where a guard brings it up slowly, wastes 8 seconds, then two guys run to the top of the 3 pt line accomplishing nothing, and it ends up in a bad ISO.
David Fizdale needs to take a page out of Adam Gase’s book and get his front office executive fired. Steve Mills is probably the worst POBO in the league and Fiz, who’s showing to be a below average head coach (just like Gase), needs to basketball talk his way into longevity.
“Look Jim. The best player on our team is Mitch. He’s our best defender, he dunks everything, and our studies are showing he’s a fan favorite. He was 2nd in the NBA last year in blocks per game, and he was a rookie! You know what Mills and Perry did? They went out and spent THIRTY. SEVEN. MILLION. of your dollars to guys who are best playing the same position as our best and one of the youngest players! And they’re WORSE than him.”
“Look Jim. You’re not a bad owner. You get a bad rap and everybody says you run a shit organization but that’s not the truth. You’re a great guy who is trusting the wrong people. Steve Mills doesn’t care about you, and he spends your money on power forwards and private dinners at Carbone instead of spending it on a winning basketball team. I can’t coach this team to wins because Mills didn’t give me anything to work with. I know a couple good guys in this league and I’ve come from Pat Riley’s championship organization. Get rid of Steve Mills and Scott Perry. Let’s put together a winning team in the front office, and everybody will be talking about how James Dolan’s Knicks are great and he finally got his act together. You’ve always had your act together. It’s that damn idiot Mills who is ruining your rep. He couldn’t even get us a sitdown with the stars. Durant said he signed in Brooklyn because he liked what those guys were building. Marks and the Nets are simply better than Mills. Mills is the problem. Not me. Not you. Let’s leak some dirt to Berman and get Mills on the next plane to Montana.”
@115
Wow! Send to Fiz.
@115 ahhahahaa!!!
I can get behind that, because with whatever criticisms we may have this year about Fizdale, it pales BY FAR in comparison to the 15+(?) years of ineptitude by Mills. If Dolan never sells, then Mills is the first that has gots to go.
It’s eternally mystifying that Gase really did pull that off this year. He’s such a mediocre head coach and yet he was able to join a team and push out a GM within, what, a month? Crazy times.
i thought that was supposed to be morris, from the corner…
yeah, there was absolutely no way graham was missing that last shot he took…it’s like the whole night was on a steady path to that moment…
weird shit with fiz not calling a time out for mitch…got to imagine mister mitch won’t shed a tear when fiz’s time is up…fun to watch him beasting around the boards…heck, with all the shots we miss – offensive rebounding is super important…
still in all, much better effort and execution throughout the game than normal…not surprising for a bunch of guys who just started playing together…
taj has been a really pleasant surprise this year…less portis is definitely more better for the team…keeping the ball out of randle’s hands needs to be an increased focus…
it looks like with frank, dot, barrett, mitch and taj getting steady minutes our defense has improved…
knox is due for another good game…
Hmmmmm….. it looks as old POP isn’t quite as woke as y’all believe. Even after six years as a Spurs assistant he thinks T Duncan should run the team in his absence:
You can read into that whatever reality you might…..
https://nypost.com/2019/11/17/becky-hammon-coaching-confusion-ensues-after-gregg-popovich-ejection/
Huh? The implication is that he’s not about to do it as a publicity stunt. That’s pretty fucking woke, boomer.
Ummmm….. no….. it clearly states in the heat of battle he believed Duncan calling the shots gave the Spurs a better chance of winning….. and I’m pretty sure that is Pop’s actual job.
Maybe we should consider Tim Duncan as coach
I wasn’t thrilled with Fizdale last night, but he may be what the team needs at the moment. The team didn’t adjust well to the zone defense, and their last play was bad, but the team is playing hard for him and seem to working together better than they did and those are good things
Hmmmm…. If you are asking whether if a guy who played 47,000 NBA minutes and 9,300 playoff minutes , was coached by one of the best coaches of all time through 3 decades and whose nickname is ” the big fundamental” and was/is highly respected among his peers would make a better coach than DizFail….. I’m guessing I’d take the over……
I am surprised the Tim Duncan is interested in coaching. He seems like the last guy in the world who would want to go and do a press conference
tim duncan is too tall to be an nba coach
Some players actually like the game.
All you need to know about Duncan was over 47,000 regular season numbers his ws/48 =.209 and over 9,300 playoff minutes = .194….. virtually the same player in the biggest moments vs the best competition as he was on a Tuesday night in January……
In China he was known as the “Stone Buddha”
(posted this in wrong thread)
So NYK are spending much effort trying to make Randle work. What does Randle do well? Nice at driving and finishing after some motion/screen. Are we sure Mitch couldn’t do that? He’s got a soft touch at the rim, able to finish in ways other than dunking. He’s coordinated. Instead of Mitch just being a screen-setter, maybe offense should include others setting screens for him. In time, he’d be a better version of Randle without the lousy defense.
I’ve arrived at the conclusion it’s better to try to expand Mitch’s game on offense. Results won’t happen right away but we shouldn’t be in a hurry. Randle’s a guy who may be best suited as a scorer on a 2nd unit like Harrell. If he’s not willing to accept that on the Knicks, try to trade him to a more competitive team like TWolves for Dieng and unprotected 1st.
Pop is the last guy in the world who wants to do press conferences.
That didn’t stop Herb Williams!
This game was best case scenario all around.
Good play from RJ. Mitch beasting. Decent game from Frank. A nice loss for the tank and for Fizdale’s death watch.
I’m not excited by a Fizdale death watch, though we’re certainly getting one. I’d like a Mills death watch, which he richly deserves. Or a The Knicks are up for Sale watch. But yeah, we’re not getting one of those.
It’s more that Duncan has been retired for a while and there wasn’t much talk of him wanting to coach before it actually happened. So many fantastic players ended up being not so great coaches, so I’d rather wait and see.
The Spurs though really look like a dead team. I think it’s been enough time that we can declare the DeRozan – Aldridge experiment a failure, and while they do have some young guys who look like decent role players, there’s not much else going for them. I don’t doubt they could eventually settle down and make the playoffs as a low seed as they did last season, but with DeRozan likely leaving next summer and Aldridge’s contract ending in 2021, they should really just blow this up.
Julius Randle is shooting way more threes, but missing 80% of them. His free throw rate is way down. He’s shooting far less from 0-3 feet, less from 3-10 feet, and shooting more from 10-16 feet and WAY more from 16 feet-3pt.
He’s also shooting for a much lower percentage from 0-3 feet and 3-10 feet. His assisted basket percentage has cratered, as has his dunk percentage.
Basically he has removed all easy baskets from his game, and is taking almost all shitty shots. It’s a travesty how the Knicks are using this guy.
Jets win again! Looks like I might be right that Fiz is fired before Gase.
🙂
Always a good day when the NY green team wins and the Boston green team loses…
I’m interested in how Joe Douglas builds this offensive line. We absolutely need better linemen across the board, but we also need a pass rusher and a cornerback. I just want one of Jeff Okudah, Chase Young, of Andrew Thomas. Hopefully Joe Douglas is the guy even if Adam Gase isn’t.
I would have bet the over for GSW
a pornstar is tweeting ‘your player needs to pay me what he owes me’ at the okc thunder
Looks like point draymond isn’t working out great
The travesty is that all of this was easy to predict (and was predicted by me). Nothing is ever black and white, but it’s fairly clear that historically most of Randall’s efficiency has come from playing close to the basket and drawing fouls.
The entire point behind spacing in basketball is to allow players like Randall to operate inside without getting doubled or facing help and to allow ball handlers that are good at penetrating and finishing to do the same.
We put Randall on a team with a C that also operates inside (already not ideal for him) and players like Frank, Barrett, Payton, DSJr, and Taj Gibson that more or less kill spacing and other mediocre shooters (granted that Morris has been hot in the short term).
This was clearly not an ideal scenario for Randall. Anyone that knows basketball should have realized there was a risk that his efficiency was going to drop either because he was facing tougher defense, forced to change his shot selection, or both. That’s why Fiz has been using Portis at C with Randall a bit more than some would like. The Randall/Mitch combination is not ideal for Randall theoretically and hasn’t been so great on the court so far either. As of right now it’s the worst 2 man combination on the team while Randall/Portis has been one of the better ones. The challenge is figuring out how to use Randall effectively. We need better spacing without giving up other positive attributes.
It’s weird that you continue to call him “Randall” even when quoting posts that spell his name correctly.
now you made me go read his other posts…ugh, lord jesus – why would I even care…
I’ve never really paid too much attention to the Grizzlies before, but they have three extremely nice young pieces acquired in the last 15 months, and they could be looking at a very fast turn-around after their Fiz induced rebuild. That franchise is so under the radar, but so solid. I bet it would be fun to be a Grizzlies fan, though I’d never know, because I grew up a knick fan and, ya know, the Mecca the Basketball, the Allure of the Big Apple, the World’s Most Famous Arena, the biggest stage in the world, etc… (*sigh)
Strat is actually correct. Part of accepting his $63,000,000 to come here, Julius had to legally rename himself after Randalls Island. It’s a NY thing. (In fact, when Dolan took over the knicks, he tried to make Charlie Ward change his name to Charlie Wards Island, but Ward said “no”, and that’s the reason the Knicks never extended another of their rookies ever again).
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rikerto01.html
Agree with many who have said that it’s time for Randle to go to the bench. He and Mitch are a nonoptimal combination, and Mitch is clearly just a better player at this point.
Start Frank, one of Dotson/Knox, RJ, Morris, and Mitch. I might actually prefer Knox in that group just so the 2nd unit doesn’t have all the flammable defenders.
Randle and Portis would be terrible defensively on the 2nd unit but at least they make some sense together offensively.
Question is whether Fiz is willing to take the heat from the player/agent/FO and move their big $ signing to the bench. Seems unlikely.
btw does anyone know how a rookie extension might work for Mitch? Might be a good way to get him on a below-market contract, especially since we will be swimming in cap space anyway — although his cap hold next summer will be miniscule.
So was messing around on B-R looking for other rookies that have had as well rounded a rookie year as RJ is having (scoring, rebounds, assists, steals) and came across what might be a pretty good comp for RJ — Lamar Odom. RJ is definitely a bit more of an alpha personality that Odom, and is definitely smaller and probably less capable of playing the 4 primarily, but the skillset is pretty close even aside from the obvious left-handed thing.
Fiz was quoted in this NY Post article https://nypost.com/2019/11/17/little-guards-continue-to-be-knicks-biggest-problem/
as considering playing Frank and DSJ together to better defend speedy guards. Assuming, he wants to play RJB at the 3, he hopefully moves Randle to the 2nd unit, where he could build his confidence against 2nd units.
Also, apparently many KBLoggers came from https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/longjo01.html
As I grew up in a town contiguous to where Tom Rikers Island did, I played park ball with him. Dude was crazy.
Markelle Fultz somehow an above average NBA guard now by WS/48 – .111. I can’t remember if I was for or against acquiring him.
I think someone needs to do a Morgenstern and Guildenkrantz style piece on the real lives of Randall, Ward, and Riker.
As for the latter, I always love stories about people who played against future NBAers in their youth. I have my own about matching up against Dan Gadzuric. It’s always the best when it’s some eventual journeyman or 13th man on the bench and they were built like absolute superhumans and completely unstoppable.
Not quite yet. Wait a bit…it’s just a matter of time before Monta Ellis immigrates to the Knicks given our guard situation.
Random references to seminal works from the Theater of the Absurd is something I love about this blog. Well played, Owen.
Quick thought on LeBron after watching NBA highlights this morning: How the fuck? Seriously. How?
I looked at the Lakers/Hawks boxscore before I went to sleep because the Hawks are interesting and Lebron was something like +42 at halftime.
This might be embarrassing for the FO, but I propose moving Randle next month, and inserting Mitch as the starter while moving Mook to PF, RJ to SF, Ntilikina to SG, and DSJ to starting PG. Then they can focus on finding a home for Ellington. A perfect scenario for me would be getting picks back for Randle and Ellington while calling up Wooton and Hinton or Allen. I can roll with that roster for the rest of the season.
Truth is, if Portis were the starter at PF, he’d probably be putting up similar numbers or better than what Randle is giving us. I hoped Randle could flourish- I think he’s a good player. But I just don’t think this is the right situation for him. I think he’d be great in Miami.
It’s time for Fiz to figure these kids out before the walls close all the way in on him. It might save his job if he proves himself worthy of that development rep, and it would hopefully *fingers crossed* show that Mills needs to go after throwing Fiz under the bus 10 games in. Again, I appreciate the presser for the fact that they are willing to communicate, but I hate how it was delivered and how it undermined the coach.
I doubt Randle has much market value at the moment. I’m hoping Fiz can figure something out that makes him more productive.
Ellington has no value. He is generic roster filler. Nobody is giving up anything of value for him.
He’ll be one and done here.
True..honestly, I would release Ellington..like right now. But! Contenders are always looking for shooting, so maybe either LA team, Milwaukee, Philly, Boston, or Toronto would be willing to give up a pick for him
i have no idea why ppl are so eager to give up on randle…. he was a useful and very good player on two separate teams the last two years and he’s only 24…. there were also people.. i believe even the same ones… ready to stamp d’angelo russell’s fate in golden state after 5 games… and he’s been roughly the same player he was in brooklyn…
we haven’t even past a month yet… early returns don’t look good but it’s very clear that we’re not using him properly… and it’s also clear that we haven’t gotten good pg play in any of our games… probably the best one came from elfrid in the opener and that was randle’s best game!
whatever you get in return for randle is not gonna be close in value to what he could be… and he could be a very good piece… some patience is warranted or else you’d look as dumb as the guy that traded fultz for jonathan simmons…..
Is it not clear to everyone that Randle is playing worse because his shot selection is worse because the offense is worse because Fizdale is worse?
It’s on Mills/Perry that we acquired Randle, Morris, Portis, and Gibson. But that doesn’t mean the individual acquisition of Randle was bad- I actually think it was a good pick up. Problem is when you’re playing 4 power forwards and Frank……
Randle didn’t lose 100 points of eFG% because he suddenly started sucking. We’re trying to use him like an off-brand LeBron James and it’s not going well.
Good coaches figure out ways to get the most out of their players and that’s not happening here.
Well said, djphan. We have a forward glut that needs some working out but trading Randle now isn’t the best way to resolve it.
Morris needs to be traded bc he has value and there is a market for him. Portis is an expiring that could be used to acquire a draft pick if the brass is willing to admit that Anthony Davis isn’t walking away from LeBron to come here.
If we just wait a few months our front court should be down to Randle, Mitch, and Gibson. Payton will be back. And we might even have a coach that can figure out how to utilize a good player like Randle.
Yeah, I don’t think anyone has given up on Randle. But he is clearly straining to be something that he is not.
Yeah I wouldn’t panic trade Randle. He’s been absolutely brutal, but franchises that make major decisions based on 432 minute samples are sucker franchises. The “overlap with Mitch” makes some sense but also doesn’t fully explain the problem–he wasn’t markedly better in the 4 games Mitch missed.
Some of it is simple, he has traded some 0-3 feet shots for mid-range garbage. That’s not really ever a good idea and there’s not much to say about it other than he should cut it out. The 3PT issue is more complicated. I wouldn’t tell him to stop shooting just yet because if he can get back to the 34-35% range that’s a shot that benefits his game (as we saw last year). However if we get a large enough sample size to include last year was a mirage, it might be time to tell him to can it until further notice. Some of his misses sure ugly. True “bricks” in every sense of the word.
No man is an island.
Russell’s on-off #’s for career (earliest first): Minus 5.2, Minus 4.7, Minus 4.9, Plus .7, Minus 11.3
Russell’s on-off #’s in last year’s playoffs: Minus 43.0 (that’s not a mistype)
I’m not sure that’s the profile of a player worth 25m/yr. He’s gotta be terrific on offense to offset his lousy defense. He’s a terrific passer but doesn’t bend the defense – his career FTr is similar to Frank’s. He’s gotta be a terrific shooter as well. Coaches in the playoffs are like sharks who smell blood and Nets being Minus 43.0 worse in the playoffs with him on the floor in 148 minutes doesn’t bode well.
Randle is in many respects a similar player. Above average on offense but gives most of it back on defense. Harrell is a similar player to Randle with much better stats and he’s been a perennial bench player. Why not trade Randle (TWolves for Dieng and 1st rounder) and then sign Harrell for 20m/yr if you like this kind of player? I think Randle and Harrell are 13m/yr guys who are primary scorers off the bench. Long term, I think Mitch could give you Randle’s offense (off ball screen, catch drive and finish). Better to invest in Mitch expanding his game on offense.
Staaaaaaaaaaaaahp we litigated raw +/- in like 2008
Gotta look at it for players who are on the extremes in terms of defense. Had you done that, you wouldn’t have liked Calderon so much in that Chandler trade.
Some of Randle’s collapse in efficiency is somewhat due to bad 3 point luck. He’s taking open 3s and just missing them a lot more than you’d expect given his career. However, Randle’s assisted baskets have gone down significantly from around 50% of his 2 point shots to 34%.
I’m not “giving up” on Randle. I just think it will be an uncomfortable fit asking him to now be the #2 guy. I believe this should be and already is Barrett’s team. And you guys are right- Fiz needs to use these guys better. I know Mook has more trade value, but he plays solid D and stretches the floor. So, this wouldn’t be a panic trade for me. Given Randle’s age and potential, you can probably get a better pick for him than you can for Mook. Mook goes to a contender. Randle can be traded anywhere.
But I think we are all in agreement on Fiz. He clearly has no idea how to develop Randle. No sane coach would consistently put Randle in the same positions that Fiz puts Randle in. Randle’s is not, and will never be a point forward. Shaq and Dream were excellent ballhandlers and passers for their size, but you didn’t see them initiating from the perimeter. Fiz needs to use him in a way that makes his ballhandling and passing a legit weapon. And if you’re gonna continue to ask him to be top dawg when there’s clearly a better option on the team, the answer is to trade Randle…or get the Fiz firing over with already. But who’s to say Miller won’t use Randle the same way? I dunno..maybe I am panicking lmao
i think we all were skeptical but hopeful that randle’s 3pt shooting was for real…. and while on catch and shoot the shot looks good… he’s also increased his non-assisted 3p shooting… which isn’t good! he shouldn’t be doing that!
he’s reacting badly to his current struggles in terms of his shot mix… he’s resorting to midrange and 3p shots… that’s not his game although those need to be developed…. but his game is getting into the paint through pnr’s… ucla cuts… off ball screens or just getting him while he’s moving…. when he’s in the post and or iso’ing from the top of the key the whole defense can key on him and he’s not good enough to take on that second guy that rotates over…. he’s quick and strong for his size and he can bully guys that are even slightly out of position…. when the defender and others are set it’s super easy to stop just about anyone… let alone randle…
he’s also progressing though…. career highs in assist rate and lowering his usage… he’s trying! i imagine this will eventually get figured out in some fashion and we’ll get a better idea once payton comes back since they actually played together last year… payton got him about 4x in easy positions to score in the SA game… no pg on our roster has been able to do that since….
so just be patient.. this is what playing the youth looks like…. progression isn’t always linear and randle’s already proven that he can be good in this league…. he just can’t do it alone….
if you think randle is having problems now… a guy like harrell who is even more dependent (70% 2p assisted rate) on others and the paint area is gonna be even worse!
harrell’s progressing well also…. but he’s also 2-3 yrs older than randle in an offense that’s actually utilizing him well with more than enough players that can put him in efficient opportunities…. you’re paying more for randle since he’s younger and there’s hopes that he can be more than that….
it’s very much possible and the model is someone like blake griffin.. and a 24 yo blake griffin would not be bad at all for the amount of money we are paying and his age…. there’s upside there if we can figure it out and it behooves us to do invest the time and money unless you have something better to do with it….
trying to figure out if frank is your backup pg is not it…..
Yes, let’s dump Randle while he’s having a rough start to his season. Do a reverse Danny Ainge, sell low.
Makes sense to me.
Systems matter. Fit matters. Coaches matter. Chemistry between players matters.
Randle is struggling because Peyton has been out and he’s being asked to do stuff he isn’t good at doing. Panicking now and trading him would be the heights of LOLKnicks.
We got him here this year and next. Get Peyton back and draft another PG next off season. Get a good coach to coach this team and he’ll be fine.
I think since he signed a 4-year deal (of which he’s in year 2), Year 3 is non-guaranteed and Year 4 is a Team Option that the Knicks would be foolish to let him walk or be traded under any circumstances. He’s vastly underpaid, I can’t imagine him resigning for anything less than a $20m per year. when the time comes Not only is he a fan favorite, he’s ridiculously productive. I mean, he’s even #2 in PER and PER usually undervalues his type of production. If he can learn not to foul so much, this is a player that you can easily build around.
But back to his contract, since he was a second-round pick, the Knicks are not subject to the rookie scale limits. They can offer him whatever they want. And he has two more years to prove he can stay on the floor. But they need to not alienate him in the meantime. Because after year 4, barring injury, he will be getting paid, even if he can’t say on the floor for more than 25 minutes.
The Knicks shouldn’t be trying to offload Randle this year. But they should absolutely move him to the 2nd unit if he can’t figure out how to play effectively with Mitch (or without, he’s been brutal either way).
Dude is a 6 year vet, so there’s probably not much development left. ‘Peak’ Randle isn’t even a great player, it’s probably not worth it to try to ‘get him going’ at the expense of developing any of the younger guys, especially your best player. Let him feast on some backups and see if he gets his confidence back or whatever, feelings be damned.
For one thing, I think that trade makes a lot more sense with Bobby Portis. Dumping $17mm in salary traditionally costs a 1st rounder. They’d be nearly $30 million under the cap this summer if they make that move.
I want to be incredulous that we’re already, before Thanksgiving, discussing trade destinations for the newest members of this wet dogshitpile of a roster, but this is the Knicks, so we’re right on plan.
Fire everyone in the front office, top to bottom. Fire Fizdale and hire a coach who knows what the fuck he’s doing. And fuck James Dolan to hell and back.
So let me get this straight. If TWolves offered Dieng and an unprotected 1st round pick for Randle, you’d think Knicks would be stupid to take that? We need a reserve center at the moment and that 1st round pick could be valuable in trading for a legit starter in the future. Watch Randle’s off ball defense – he’s Amare. I doubt that improves. I had hoped playing the 4 versus the 5 he’d be better but that hasn’t happened. He needs to be elite on offense to offset his defense especially in the playoffs. And on offense do people believe Mitch couldn’t in time run off a screen, catch, drive and finish? That’s what Randle does best on offense.
Remember that time we dodged the Greg Monroe bullet? Seems like we’re about to get the same experience.
You didn’t say unprotected. I think they are extremely unlikely to offer that but in this imaginary scenario I’d have to admit that an unprotected pick from a team as historically bad as Minnesota would get me listening.
In reality, the trade would be a lottery protected pick. And since that’s the cost of dumping Dieng alone, it seems like you’re giving Randle away for literally nothing.
RE: Mitch – he has a 4 year contract with the 4th year a team option I believe. They will do the Jokic thing where they decline the 4th year and let him go into restricted free agency (if they didn’t do that, then he would unrestricted after the 4th year although we’d still have bird rights). I was just wondering whether there was a way to lock him up early.
Anyway, here’s something stefan bondy wrote last month:
Needless to say the Knicks should offer that asap. Who knows, maybe he will even take it. Hard to turn down $50MM guaranteed that still lets him become a free agent by age 26 or 27.
Randle’s problem isn’t playing with Mitch, the problem is Payton is out. It’s not real complicated. It’s not as if being on the second unit is going to get him the guard play he needs to be effective, or even that he’s somehow incompatible with Mitch.
Yep. That’d be a pretty Knicksy move, but out of character for Perry.
The roster needs to be built around the defense of Frank, Mitch, and Rowan. Which means basically a superstar higher usage PG, and a stretch 4, with a Vinnie Johnson-type combo guard when the matchups or flow aren’t great for Frank, or even to start over Frank. The Knicks have three all-defense type guys (two for absolute certain, one with that kind of ceiling) on their roster now, all 21 or under. If they can’t build something out of that, it’s their own fault.
Having Payton back may help with his scoring efficiency and TO’s but those aren’t his only issues. The defense has been even worse than advertised and he’s bricking a lot of wide-open 3’s. Don’t see Payton’s return fixing either of those.
The real question the team should be asking is how to maximize Mitch’s contributions. They should try to have three 3pt shooters on the court with him at all times. If Randle can’t hit 3’s then he’s gotta sit.
I doubt anyone’s offering the full $55M to Mitch. Too few minutes. Boban is making $3.5M this year, WCS is making $2.1M, Dwight Howard a vet’s min. Guys like Hassan Whiteside ($27M) are probably going to have a rough time ahead of them in free agency. “Backup center” types do not get any money these days and even true-C draft picks are falling by the wayside — Jaxson Hayes was the only lottery-selected C, one of three in the 1st round (#8, #18 Bitadze, #27 Kabenzgele). The summer-of-2016 mentality is very much over.
This is not to say that Mitch won’t be worth the money they have to pay for him. Just that I don’t think the market is going to be awash with anything but Drummond and a whole bunch of guys getting MLEs, vet’s mins and Knicks’ No-Upside Specials.
Even if that’s true, Island isn’t worth the effort of juggling personnel around to “get him going.” You don’t make any decisions at all aimed at getting him going. He’s not worth that. The decision on Payton’s minutes are completely independent.
What likely happened is that instead of just waiting for him to jump on the $63M he wasn’t going to get from anyone else, Mills also promised him that the offense would be built around him and that he could chuck at will. That of course was absurdly stupid, but Mills gonna Mills.
Randle and Payton played 800 minutes together last season and it was one of the Pelicans’ least productive tandems. (Turnovers went up with that pairing, and eFG% came down).
Well, maybe not every sense…
Its obvious that Griffin wanted no piece of Randle but was there anyone else competing with Perry on that first day to sign him? Who are they? If yes, call those people and see if they still need/want him.
the new york knicks are only two and a half games out of the playoffs…the worm is about to turn…then die…
well, that should squash some of that talk…and yes – it sure does look like julius randall should be coming off the bench…
and yeah, i know what you all are up to with all this – payton is coming back to save the day talk – ain’t happening…leave our man frank alone…
The Knicks have lost three games on last second shots. Our last two games and one of the Boston games. If we’d won those we’d be six and seven and in the playoff picture. Of course these are the Knicks we are talking about. But it just shows the fine line between a respectable record and a coach on a deathwatch.
the idea behind waiting for payton isn’t that he is going to save randle… the whole point behind it is that he’ll look better than however he is looking with the worst pg’s in the nba….
and if you want to look at lineup data.. what little time randle has had with payton this year… it’s one of the few still left in positive territory… in fact 3 out of the 4 lineups that are still positive are with payton also…
it still might not be good but he probably won’t be super handicapped like he is now…. so please… chill out…
what would i do without you dj fan…you’re the only one here on the board i really like to mess with…first you’re pretty darn smart (your draft stuff is like scripture for me) – but, mostly i sense you have a good soul and you’re just so earnest…i just can’t resist 🙂
oh yeah, and – i love how you format your writing…hmmmm, kind of reminds me of someone elses’…
The good news about Randle is that he’s taking the focus off of Frank.
Seriously, Randle’s a really good player being used wrong. He clearly needs a PG that can organize for him. He clearly shouldn’t be a primary ball-handler. I agree that Elfrid will be good for him. And maybe he also needs to play off of a star, like he did when he played with AD.
LOL I just found out Frank has the best plus/minus numbers of any Knick receiving major minutes…even Mitch.
You’re trying to argue that a team with a -10.26 SRS is on any kind of “fine line,” other than between appearing as an NBA team and an NBGL team? Nah.
-9
-4
-23
+7
-12
-2
-21
-22
+4
-21
-18
+3
-1
If a 6-7 record with a negative ~8 MOV (which is about what it would be if the Knicks had won those games) convinces a front office that the coach should be safe, that front office is positively moronic.
Spot on.
Randle and Payton played 800 minutes together last season and it was one of the Pelicans’ least productive tandems. (Turnovers went up with that pairing, and eFG% came down).
well, that should squash some of that talk…and yes – it sure does look like julius randall should be coming off the bench…
not on team randle but 18-19 nop facts are:
w randle/payton: 113.6 ppp, efg 53.9, ts 56.95 to/100 14.38
all other: 111.6 ppp, efg 52.7, ts 56.0, to/100 14.36
I think Frank is getting too much blame here for Randle’s poor start. Randle isn’t a roll man and Frank can make an entry pass to the post just fine. The issue is he’s never in the post. That ain’t on Frank and it won’t get better with Smith or Payton.
i’m not even sure exactly what i’m supposed to be looking for here, except for his ws/48 and vorp – his stats look pretty much the same as the last couple of years…
the big difference seems to be in frank hooking up with his old coach vincent collet this off-season…i mean yeah, frank’s a little older and bigger, stronger – but, collet seems to have been able to help things click upstairs for frank…physically/athletically – he has the tools, always has…
i get it though – past performance is a good indicator of future performance…unless it’s not…it’ll be hard tonight to watch frank start the game, and, not remember just how terrible he’s been his first couple of years…
if we somehow “hit” on frank and knox (with this let’s draft the youngest players available strategy – pretty unconventional in basketball) becoming positive players – that’s going to go a long way toward us getting back to simply being a bad or mediocre team, and, not the very worst team…i’m rooting hard for them both…
I’m pretty thrilled that Frank is actually stealing the ball this year. Still not happy that he’s functionally incapable of putting the ball in the hole, but hey, keep that BPM on the rise, monsieur.
Frank > Draymond
I’m not not knocking Draymond because his value on defense alone is significant, but it makes you wonder how many of his assists came from passing to 3 of the greatest shooters/scorers in the history of the game and how much of his scoring/efficiency was the result of looks he would never get on the typical NBA team.
Frank still sucks but this year he can actually dribble and take it to the tin. He’s obviously a shooting guard, but he’s not the same guy from last year or year before. He still makes me want to punch him in the chest every time he brings the ball up and just gives it to Julius, though. I hate that shit.
I’ll keep saying it until he stops shooting the ball this well, but Kevin Knox is on track to be our starting power forward next year. Last year was a train wreck season but the kid reminds me of Danilo Gallinari. Especially since Knox has more or less been playing within himself these days, he just has the feel of a guy who is going to pick his spots on offense and be a nice complementary piece between RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson. I hated Knox last year, called him trade bait, but both his 3 point shooting and the development of our two franchise cornerstones makes me think this is a guy who needs to be a Knick long term.
That said, I’m out on Julius Randle as a starter. He’s a ball dominant true power forward with no moves, no defense, and he’s a bad 3 point shooter. I’d limit him to 28 minutes a night against 2nd units where he can punish guys like Bobby Portis when he’s not a Knick next season, but I can’t imagine a starting line up where he’s more valuable than on off-ball role player.
Hmm, despite playing with a glorified g-league squad Draymond still averages more assists per 36, has a better turnover to assist ratio, and a higher TS%. And while Frank has been very good defensively this year the Knicks have still gotten lit up by guards since he’s been back in the rotation vs. Orlando- Sexton, Fox, Kemba, Graham, White, and Luka all led their teams in scoring and in one of the two games game a guard didn’t lead the opposing team in scoring Tony Snell went 9 for 9 from three. I’m not sure what that says about the value of a lock-down guard but I’m going to go ahead and say that interior defenders have a bit more say in the outcome of games so Draymond>>Frank.
I also want to point out that Danilo Gallinari is an excellent basketball player and by no means do I expect Kevin Knox to turn into a career .589 TS% .143 WS/48 guy. I do think it’s possible, though.
I don’t know what the fuck kind of offense Fizdale is running but it appears to have a strong “give the ball to Randle and let him create something” kind of component to it. That’s not good. That needs to be removed. Dude needs to not be dribbling the ball and making spin moves and trying to do up and unders through three defenders and all of the heinous shit he’s doing now.
On/Off is very noisy, but the team has been better with him on the court than off the court for 2+ years now and his French team was also better with him on the court. The Knicks are a bad team, plus it could all be noise, but the longer it’s sustained the more it looks like an indication that some of the things he does well are not captured by most models.
IMO, every single “all in one” model is flawed in one or more ways.
Some are missing too many important value oriented positive or negative stats or defense.
Some overvalue or undervalue a single stat or certain combinations of stats.
Some can’t tease out the impact of lineups, matchups, coaching, system, role etc.. on a player’s own stats.
Some handle most players well, but fall apart badly for specific edge cases.
If I had the time, inclination, and staff to do so, I’d have a large detailed spreadsheet for each player with very detailed offensive and defensive skill categories. I’d rate each player on each skill using data and scouting, put a value on each skill based on studies, build a player profile, and then try to maximize the team output by combining profiles in ways that maximize team output given studies on all that work.
Absent all that for serious fans, I think on/off data covering multiple years along with some informed subjective analysis of the team, other player’s skills, roles, system, lineups etc.. is probably more accurate than just blindly accepting some single metric.
It’s just not good for short term analysis or if you aren’t informed enough to understand what could be impacting the numbers.
Two comments. One is I didn’t mean such a record would mean the Knicks are a good team. If you win all three nail biters you play, that’s probably mostly luck. But I do think that such a record would remove Fiz from the hot seat, even if the stats didn’t justify that.
My second comment is that in order to conclude an average is really representative of something, it helps if the data is roughly normally distributed. In this cae it isn’t at all. The Knicks lost five games by seventeen or more points and played six games where they lost by five point or less or won. There are only two other games they played that were in between those values. That’s close to a bimodal distribution. I don’t what caused the difference between those two sets of games, but I doubt the distribution will stay the like this all season. If the distribution stabilized a little, then maybe the SRS will tell us what we have. Right now it’s too soon to tell.
@209
Calm down. I was making a joke because of how poorly Draymond played over those 6 games. I don’t actually think Frank is better than Draymond. But maybe Draymond isn’t as good as Draymond….if you know what I mean.
dray played just 2600 minutes from 2014-19 in which neither curry nor durant was on the floor. he averaged 8.3 ast per 100. when steph, durant or both were on he averaged 8.9. doesn’t look like playing with gods had as big an effect as you might suspect. i didn’t take klay out, but that doesn’t leave dray with anything like an aberrational offensive group.
There’s a chance that Draymond Green isn’t trying quite as hard this year.
his teeth look pretty great though…
Sometimes I feel like djphan’s less knowledgeable burner account. I’m real, I swear I’m real! [stares in mirror for thirty minutes repeating that]
This is basically my thinking. Fiz is relying on Barrett and Randle et al to create all the offense. When Payton plays that seems to change some, that’s all. I certainly don’t think Payton is great fucking shakes but he’s certainly a better creator for others than Frank or DSJr are.* Which isn’t blaming Frank for Randle’s woes so gtfo with that. Also hoping that the open 3’s will eventually start falling, as that seems more reasonable than ‘he’s permanently worse than he’s ever been.’ Yes, he’s the fifth or sixth best player on the team, but he’s the fifth or sixth best player while playing worse than he has in the past so..
*Basically anyone can create for Mitch, why that isn’t the main option I do not know.
But what does it say that people thought you were serious?
You mean Draymond isn’t playing as well as Draymond used to? Because, uh… maybe we should introduce you to this thing called BPM, which has been showing Draymond’s regular-season performance as slipping since his (surprise!) age-25 season.
Anyone could have guessed that an undersized PF/C would peak from 24-27 and start slipping thereafter, although he’s still one of the best playoff performers this century. Most likely, to my mind, is a combination of near-total disinterest and normal aging.
No one takes box score aggregators as seriously as you pretend they do, but I still guarantee you’d be better off building a team with BPM than with raw on/off and the eye test.
You could put together a garbage team with guys who have positive on/off numbers. Much harder to do with BPM!
According to a line in a New Yorker article profiling Silicon Valley incubator Y Combinator, “Many people in Silicon Valley have become obsessed with the simulation hypothesis, the argument that what we experience as reality is in fact fabricated in a computer.”
The key paper for simulation theory, the idea to which Musk was referring, is a now extremely famous 2003 paper by an Oxford philosophy professor named Nick Bostrom, the founding chair of Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute.
Bostrom’s core idea was a compelling one. It has been amended, and different forms of it have sprouted, but in its most basic form it goes like this: First, assume humanity makes it in the future. If we do, computing power will likely increase; the more powerful computers get, the closer these theoretical future beings will get to the point where they are able to simulate worlds with conscious beings like us in them. Then, evaluate how likely it is that, across the whole span of time, we are the ones living in the real original world rather than in one of those simulations of it?
the only real choice left to any of us is: to doubt it all, or, believe it all…
If all that we know exists does so both entirely for and entirely within our experiencing mind, then we are all gods of our own tiny universe.
I am a real boy! I am!
elon musk is a fucking idiot.
i’ll tell ya, my faith takes a hard enough hit whenever i think too deeply on the whole not-so-original messiah “story”…i’ll take a hard pass on the notion i’m actually “stuck” in a matrix…