Knicks Morning News (2018.07.04)

Andrew Wiggins has a new challenger for worst contract for a young player who is all upside and pointzz.

Booker did show some improvement last year and now he has some talented pieces around him, and Devin Armani Booker is a pretty cool name.

The Booker deal is scary but it’s not in the Wiggins universe. It’s almost never a good bet to go all-in on a high volume, high turnover scorer who doesn’t defend. But getting 26 pts at 56% as a 21 year-old on an upward trajectory means there’s a non-miraculous world in which Booker produces like Lillard and earns the contract. Wiggins’ deal was literally DOA.

It seems that $5.3 million is now the established market rate for talented, pain-in-the-ass big men in the decline phase of their careers.

https://fansided.com/2018/07/03/nylon-calculus-wingspan-defense/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

I really liked this article posted yesterday or whatever, and I wish every coach would ram this down every player’s throat. It’s so true that defense, especially in today’s NBA is mainly about hustle and covering ground, not height or wingspan.

Anecdotally, the non-basketball athletes I used to hate playing against the most were soccer players. They couldn’t dribble or shoot worth a shit but were all over the fucking place on D. I would argue that relatively few NBA players are in “soccer” condition and would get their asses kicked by world cup level players in any sport-neutral conditioning drills.

Here’s a spot-on comparison to another 21yo:

Even if you think that Booker will become the current version of Steph Curry, what made the Warriors become a dynasty was the fact that Curry’s first contract was for way under his value.

When he signed his extension for 4/$44m he was the 4th highest paid person on the team.

If the Warriors has thrown $3o% of the cap at him, LeBron would probably have 2 more rings and Durant would still be in Oklahoma.

I believe Hakeem Olajuwon was a serious soccer player before taking up hoops in Nigeria(?) and he was about as good as a defensive player as you could want.

Steve Nash is another notable example. Although not known for defense, his athleticism was off the charts.

Even if you think that Booker will become the current version of Steph Curry, what made the Warriors become a dynasty was the fact that Curry’s first contract was for way under his value.

When he signed his extension for 4/$44m he was the 4th highest paid person on the team.

If the Warriors has thrown $3o% of the cap at him, LeBron would probably have 2 more rings and Durant would still be in Oklahoma.

This is fair, but the GSW situation is simply an outlier and not replicable. Curry was a freak luck kind of pick, and his early value was diminished by the specter of a chronic ankle/foot issue. But to be fair, they were a workd class team even before signing Durant, and would have been even if Curry was maxed. They just wouldn’t be the GOAT as they arguably are right now.

But try offering guys like Towns, Porzingis and Booker contracts like Curry’s and watch them laugh their way to being free agents.

Happy 4th everyone

Be good
Be happy
Be safe
Go Knicks

Oh…and be like me..STAY IN THE HOUSE AND SOAK UP THE AC lol

Booker is a SG. SGs tend to not fill up the stat sheet as much as the other positions because they don’t handle the ball enough to pile up assists like PGs even if they have the skill set (same would happen to Frank if he shifts to SG) and don’t get as many rebounds as SFs due to size and being on the perimeter virtually all the time. There are always exceptions for players that do dominate the ball, but typically what you want from the SG is high volume very efficient scoring, spacing (value not measured well), and defense.

Booker has all the attributes to become a dynamite SG on offense. He scoring efficiency and 3p% are rising with a TS% of 60% and 3p% of 40% or thereabouts being the target. Even his assists and rebounds are inching up.

His defense is the issue. It would OK if he was neutral on defense, but if he’s going to be a negative it will destroy some of the value he adds on offense.

Basically though, this is one of the problems with drafting very young players. You have them on a cheap contract when they are learning and improving, but they often don’t add much value at that stage. Then when they finally start getting really good, you sometimes have to overpay to keep them on the assumption the improvement will continue.

Booker is by all accounts an excellent scorer. Can’t argue with the free throws and the 3pt%, even though I would like to see better shot selection from him.

I agree SGs don’t fill stats so much as other positions, but doesn’t that also mean paying premium for a dedicated SG is not efficient in a way? If all you want is an efficient scorer that can defend on the position it can be done with a much lesser price than a big max like that.

If Booker manages to reach a 60 ts% with better shot selection now that he has better weapons around him, he’ll be a pretty valuable player, as long as the defense is somewhat passable. But I would rather have a very valuable PG or SF that can affect the game in more ways than sinking such a huge contract for a guy who won’t provide other production across the board.

What has stood out to me the most is how sadly institutional most SUNY colleges are. Other states have attractive, private-school-looking public colleges that attract out-of-state students. Not NY. One’s uglier than the next.

I’m glad I went to SUNY to finish my BA and MA, or I’d be in crippling debt now. My close friend went to Vassar and I was always envious of the straight-male-to-female ratio and the beauty of that Poughkeepsie oasis, but I’m glad I came out with practically no debt and landed a good career anyway. When I applied to CU, it was already up near $45K and (I just read) it’s currently $69K a year to attend now! As beautiful as that place is, I wouldn’t touch it unless I knew I had a job at Goldman Sachs lined up after, and if that were the case, I’d rather jump off a bridge.

Re: Devin Booker, not a good contract but definitely not in the Wiggins stratosphere. There is a world of difference between .560 and .505 TS% on high volume. Wiggins is a total bust, full stop. There’s nothing redeeming about his play — no Avery Bradley “but hey, I can defend!” caveat, no Jason Kidd “yeah but I do everything else” upside — just bad.

Booker becomes a .580 or .590 TS% volume scorer on 25 PPG? Home run.

Wiggins reduced his volume, played next to Jimmy Butler, and still had the worst efficiency of his career. They should have traded him for anything they could get. Sunk cost fallacy is going to fuck the Wolves.

Edit: As usual, my half-Swede, half-Brazilian counterpart beats me to the punch.

I can just see the headline now:

Knicks trade Hardaway and Lee (Yayyy!!!!) For Timberwolves Star (we’re getting Butler!) Andrew Wiggins (burns Starks jersey, quits job, moves to Tibet)

Moving to Boulder this fall. Went to undergrad there, can confirm. But definitely don’t move there, it’s terrible (I mean it’s actually wonderful, but we’re trying to keep even more people from moving there).

Agreed with you guys about Booker and vs. Wiggins. Booker is way better gamble.

How can you blame Phoenix for that deal? Are they going to be able to attract any premium free agents? Phoenix is not LA, and they are looking way up at GS, Houston, etc. They’re going to have to try to get out of the lottery by building from within and keeping their young core happy.

As some have already pointed out, if they offer him a 4/$11 or 12m type deal, he’d laugh and become a free agent.

As with any huge deal, the big risk is that Booker now is satisfied with his income and stops working to improve.

Boulders great but super expensive now. Applying there for PhD work this admissions cycle, though, so I might end up there. Most beautiful place in the world to me is still Upstate New York and Montreal, though. Can’t wait to get back to the North after my stints in ATL and NC.

Booker is not necessarily a chucker. He played for the worst team in the league and was given complete license to shoot at will.

I grew up right outside Stony Brook and I agree that the vast majority of SUNY campuses aren’t theost aesthetically pleasing. That said, I sometimes wish my family had stayed in NY so I could’ve taken advantage of SUNY and CUNY schools very competitive tuition. I received a top notch education at UNC, though, but unique financial circumstances (separated Catholic parents that never divorced, dad made decent money but didn’t support us so I lived with my mother on public assistance while their combined income looked high 5 figures so on and so forth) made it such that though I had the income level suitable for Pell Grants and need based scholarships I received none of them and cameout with a fair bit of debt.

My advice is go to the place that’s the best value for money, so I agree with Jowles on the SUNY schools generally, especially Stony Brook and New Paltz, though it’s a pretty non collegey atmosphere at SBU.

I’ve been thinking about the Hezonja thing. And I’m torn.
Looking at it from a pure basketball perspective, if the idea is for him to replace Beasley and see if he’s a fit moving forward, I think it’s a bad idea. But if the goal is to look at another young and developing player while helping the team get a good draft pick, then it’s a great idea. I don’t know what’s worse, signing him to play SF primarily where he will have trouble keeping up on defense, or having him replace Beasley’s production as a small ball PF. He’s probably got more all around game than Beasley, but Beasley is a far better scorer and rebounder. And with his length he can be a better defender. With Hezonja, I wonder if he can play physical enough to be a smallball PF. If he can improve his rebounding, it won’t matter. His skillset does intrigue me as a smallball PF with his modern offensive game and passing. If he starts, Kanter had better stay healthy because he is the only rebounder we have unless we keep Noah or Robinson shows something in year 1.

See? Torn.

Go Knicks

By the way – as fellow travellers on the good ship ‘sports misery’ I hope you’ll all allow me a moment to forget about the knicks and revel after a first shoot-out win since I was 15 and we were hosting the Euros in 1996…

Back to yesterday’s weather commentary, I live in San Diego and can confirm the weather is beautiful almost every day. Don’t tell anyone, it is getting more and more crowded every year. Balancing out the great weather is the fact that the sports here are terrible. We lost our football team (the team formerly known as the San Diego chargers), have no NBA team, and the baseball team is more of a AAA feeder for other big league teams. So right now it is literally a pro sports wasteland.

The Eastern Conference used to be “big”, but now it’s just really bad. The imbalance has reached ridiculous levels. Western conference teams have won 12 out of the last 18 NBA titles (4 of last 5) and are heavily favored to win next year too. Every player on the last 4 all NBA teams now plays n the West. Let that sink in. It’s almost enough to make me root for the Celtics next year. The all star game is going to be some kind of joke for the next few years unless something changes.

Kind of pissed the Knicks didn’t or couldn’t make a run at Randle. 2 years at 9 million per seems reasonable and he would have fit well next to KP in theory any way. Of course another team cashed in on the Lakers mistake not NY because Knicks.

When I was in college, I visited my sister in Binghamton and my best friend in Stony Brook. I have to say, the difference culture-wise and aesthetically was astronomical, and it is hard to imagine how different the overall experience would have been had I gone that path rather than lucking into an affordable route to Colgate. Neither of them ever go to reunions or have much of a alumni friend network. It’s hard to put a price on that stuff. But at the end of the day, it’ll be between my girl and the coaches. I’m just the ATM.

Hezonja has developed a bit already and looks to have some good fundamentals. Mudiay is a bit younger and has a great physical profile but so far away from being good, it’s doubtful he becomes anything more than an end-of-bench guy. Neither deal is all that consequential, since most second rounders don’t even get as far as Mudiay has. Maybe Fizdale is a whiz at player development and works some magic with them, as well as Frank, Dotson, Troy, Mitchell, Knox and Trier. Otherwise, just let Mudiay and Hezonja go, no harm, no foul.

@37

I’ll be applying to Edinburgh, Oxford, Cambridge, KCL, and maybe the LSE for doctoral work, so there’s a good chance I’ll take the opportunity to explore all the august, ancient unis and their towns that the UK has to offer.

Palmetto bugs are terrifying. But Central and Western NYS are horrific from November to March, often lousy in October, April and May, and not all that great in summer. No A/C in south FL is a bitch, though, no wonder you’re so surly! 🙂

I live in west Knoxville TN. Good cost of living…beautiful Smokey Mountains nearby. A major college town with all the comes with that.

And one of the worst places in the USA to live in if you have allergies…as most people do… Also lots of heat AND humidity. We got it all!

🙂

Lived all over the US and some outside the country. We had 28 of feet of snow in 2 days in Buffalo once; we got on the roof and were diving into the snow. Wild. It was almost as bad in South Bend, Indiana, except the lake was more than an hour away. San Diego is pretty blissful, but boring. Paris is the most beautiful city in the world (caveat: haven’t been to South America, sorry, Bruno), but the people really are nasty. Really don’t like London; a lot of the stuff I don’t like about NYC, except more boring and segregated. Amsterdam is probably the coolest city I’ve been to, lovely, with really down-to-earth people, and Edinburgh is kind of awesome – a world-class small town. All in all, though, I love where I live now the best, in a small town half an hour west of NYC. Small town feel with cosmopolitan people, rich, poor, black, white, with parks, a jazz club, indie theater, good restaurants, and actual seasons… snow in the winter and the pool in the summer.

May have to give Boulder a try, though…

St Andrews is great from what I’ve heard. Tiny tho.

Regarding diversity, Boulder may be the whitest place on earth.

This is definitely true and a large part of why I initially moved away. Also the city is way overeducated so you see a lot of people working jobs they’re overqualified for. Then there’s the whole mystical anti-science portion of the community that this board would dislike.

I haven’t done as much international traveling as I should have at this stage, but the best “city” I’ve ever been to was Montreal. It has most of the upsides of a city like NY, but it’s feels cleaner, newer, safer, and friendlier than NY. It’s too cold for me to live full time, but it’s a great place to visit.

I did not like San Diego. The weather was great, but when I was there there I saw a lot of homelessness and teenage loitering. It was the worst of what I see in NY from time to time multiplied by 2. I saw no upside other than the weather and the rest was downside. I way preferred San Francisco. San Francisco was beautiful. The weather was great. There was plenty to do. But I am hearing it has deteriorated since I was there 15-20 years ago.

Right now if I had my choice I’d spend my summers in Saratoga Springs, NY. I’d head to Lexington Kentucky for awhile (which a really nice city) and then spend my winters on the west coast of Florida to relax.

#58 and 59 Awesome, please tell everyone you know how you feel about San Diego.

Chicago during the months it’s not winter has been amazing every time I’ve been (albeit not that often). If I can winter somewhere else, I would have that listed pretty high.

How is this even possible?

A source close to #LeBron tells me that Bron had zero contact w/#Lakers head coach Luke Walton throughout the Lakers’ entire recruitment process. “LeBron never met Luke at all,” source says — and they still have not met. Walton will be James’ seventh full-time NBA head coach.— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) July 4, 2018

SUNY purchase? where the knicks work out?

Great 4th of July convo here, guys, we had thunderstorms here so spent most of the bbq indoors and it was nice to take an occasional break the hear your thoughts about cities and colleges. My daughter is a club volleyball player and her team has traveled to Philly, DC, Atlanta, Orlando, Lancaster, and most recently Pittsburgh. I didn’t expect much from Pittsburgh but really liked it! What I have generally found is that all have really nice features and are very livable, but it’s hard to top NYC.

JK I live in LA now as well – I’m from the BX and Yonkers, also lived in Albany 3 years and Syracuse off and on since I went to SU for grad school (Newhouse) in ’03. Was beginning my real estate investing career a few years ago when I met the girl of my dreams who lives in LA. So i’ve been here for 2+ years.

Obviously, Syracuse can’t hold a candle to LA. Two things, though:
1. This Southern Cali lifestyle – lets just say I’ve realized I’m not quite that liberal 😉

2. I’m a cheap-ass. And Syracuse is cheaper. Way cheaper.

OT: i’m hoping the Clippers stay mediocre for awhile so I can afford tix again when the Knicks come to town.

P.S. I miss good pizza and heroes.

llcoolbp, SUNY Cortland is in the conversation because her HS coach went there.. But she wasn’t crazy about the campus overall. She loves Ithaca College and the city of Ithaca but they have one of the top D3 volleyball programs in the country and it’s a tough team to make and play for, not to mention a $60K per year price tag.

nicos, SUNY Purchase is a short drive for me, dreary campus but beautiful, very wealthy area, I’ve been there many times and played adult league basketball there. Wasn’t it once was a prison? chrisk06811, the Knicks used to practice there but now have their own facility across the county in Greenburgh.

ah! I went to the Purchase site once, years ago, at the invitation of Paul Silas, former assistant coach, and really a gentleman

Ntilikilla,

I agree about the quote from Fizdale, it is promising. As for Lebron never meeting Walton, LeBron probably figures he’s going to run the team, so why does it matter. I think Walton is in a very tough position now. His preferred style of basketball is not what Lebron does, and his team isn’t set up to be good at his preferred style of Basketball. I don’t know how he is going to adapt. The Lakers may not get great results, despite having Lebron, and that could put a lot of pressure on Walton.

By the way – as fellow travellers on the good ship ‘sports misery’ I hope you’ll all allow me a moment to forget about the knicks and revel after a first shoot-out win since I was 15 and we were hosting the Euros in 1996…

I can assure you all the English expats in Melbourne are letting us know about it, so you may as well join in ha ha

I went to school in Rochester. Winters were brutal, even if you liked the cold. Spring summer and fall were gorgeous though. Great weather, amazing light. Not surprising Kodak set up shop there.