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173 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2024.11.19)”
You’re pretty much just a defender, OG. Look at your rebounding, USG, and assist numbers to start and then to drill down, really and honestly ponder what goes through your mind when you have the ball and embark on a foray to the basket. It probably isn’t “Now’s my opportunity to set up a teammate,” or “If I can get to this spot, it will open things up for my teammate,” right?(*)
Philosophers of all stripes have held for millennia that self-awareness is a positive virtue. They’re not wrong.
(*) And if you’re really interested, you could look at film of the guys in the association who aren’t just defenders, note the skills they show and the things they do on the floor — and contrast/compare. I’m sure the film of your former team’s game last night is already available; it would be an opportunity to both learn and reminisce. A two-fer!!
Here we go again…
He started it!
Delusions in the minds of lead Knick players serve the interests of no Knick factions.
Jalen Brunson:
FG 9-15 (60%) 3P 5-9 (55.6%) FT 3-3 (100%)
And 11 assists with 0 (ZERO!) turnovers!!! š±
Oh, and 1 steal.
Welcome back, cap! š§”š
But for some reason not RJ.
Cavs-Celtics going to be interesting
Whetting your ax on a bot item, that is next level stuff
Albeit 3 straight games against teams we should beat, it looks like the offense is starting to jell. Defensively, KAT needs a crash course in rim protection. He seems eager to defend, but it looks like he’s never learned to use his size correctly. Mitch was the same way for a few years too..but Thibs set him straight. I have no doubt that between Thibs, Bryant, Harrington, and maybe even Ewing- that he’ll get better at it this season. KAT still guards bigs like they are all ball handlers, if that makes sense. Sometimes all he needs to do is show his 250lbs and 7’4″ wingspan, and that will be effective enough in the paint
Mitch was a lot younger and rawer than Mitch was when Thibs got his hands on him, and hadn’t received good coaching before in the pros. Thibs already coached KAT once before, and KAT also played for several years under Chris Finch, who seems like an excellent defensive coach. I don’t think it’s impossible that a more mature and smarter KAT can improve on what he’s been defensively. I just don’t know that we should expect a significant amount of improvement. It’ll be more about better communication and him understanding the scheme better ā and/or Thibs tweaking the scheme as more results come in with this starting lineup.
really and honestly ponder what goes through your mind when you have the ball and embark on a foray to the basket.
this but for knickerblogger posting
It probably isnāt āNowās my opportunity to set up a teammate,ā or āIf I can get to this spot, it will open things up for my teammate,ā right?
renowned teppanyaki rhetorician E would have said:
“Hallucinating creation as the sole purveyor of Association offense is narcissism so extreme it verges on solipsism.”
in human speak, creation is not the only offensive scarcity. the matrix of rare but useful conjugates is vast (ok, ptmilo speak). for example, the capacity to shoot and and attack closeouts and back cut and bully mismatches while finishing at the rim are not promiscuously endowed in singular players.
in the last 5 years, 359 players have played 3000+ minutes. if you wanted one who took at least 6 3s and 7 2s per 36 and shot 38%+ and 54%+ on them, you had seven choices. One was OG anunoby. it doesn’t make him jayson tatum, but he ain’t defense only.
That should be “Mitch was a lot younger and rawer than KAT is now when Thibs got his hands on him”
In other words, within the limitations and parameters of his low-ceiling, uncreative (*) offensive skill set, OG is very effective or even extremely effective.
Already noted, never quarreled with. Reiterated again. Kumbaya.
(*) And quite self-focused, although I don’t chalk that up to selfishness in any way, but in processing capacity and inclination — ultimately part of skill set.
Iām really not sure who thought OG was solely a defensive player. He always has been considered a three point shooter. I think this team might improve his scoring for two reasons. One, when KAT is on the perimeter thereās space for cuts and drives. Two, as Hart said in one of the articles above, when a smaller guy is defending him, he can take advantage. Now that teams are finding they need a bigger defender on Brunson, OG may get easier matchups. Also, a lot of teams donāt have many good big defenders and they will be stretched thin on defense.
Eās like the receiver who puts on a big celly after catching a 3 yard screen pass while losing by 28, except heās losing the OG Trade Takes Game by a lot more than that.
RE: Anunoby. His skill set makes him somewhere between an elite 3&D-plus guy or a low end efficient 2 way player. Either version is great for him and the team as long as he doesn’t try to do too much with the ball. So, he’s not exactly just a defender. But his elite defense and efficient shooting is what got him that bag. He really needs to work on his rebounding though- since he’s a 4 for us now. But whatever he is, he’s awesome on this team.
Agreed 200%. I don’t expect a whole lot of improvement in paint protection, but I do expect some. His shot blocking had been better in years past, so with paint discipline he should be better. I do appreciate his defensive pride and the way he tries to lock in one on one. However, the NBA for bigs is largely a team defense sport these days. It’s not like when Ewing played. So KAT has to buy all the way in on drop coverage, and if he’s not as good as Hartenstein at it, Thibs will adjust. I imagine adjusting when both sides are so used to approaching defense in different ways is incredibly difficult for Thibs. Especially when Thibs’ way has been so effective for him in NY
Do we think the Wizards get to 10 wins this season? That’s about as bad of an NBA team as I can remember watching
Sims went full Mario bouncing off his enemy’s head for that one dunk. He may have tapped A twice for the double jump too.
Why would I be celebrating giving up not one, but two guys who do possess high-ceiling, creative offensive skillsets, that include quick mental processing of facilitation of others, for one guy who doesn’t?
I think you’ve misread or misinterpreted.
E with the age old question, would you rather have a team of 5 RJ Barretts or 5 high-level players with synergistic skill sets?
PT I am glad you summed that up at the end because I was lost.
I was taking about the Wizards last night and someone asked me who their star was. Uhh, Jonas Valenciunas? Malcolm Brogdon?
I think Towns and Mitch are apples and oranges on defense. Mitch was fast twitch from the jump. I am setting the over under on Towns blocking a three pointer at 2.
Mitch is a great athlete for a big. Towns is not.
Mitch never quite got there as a defender, I.e. truly elite, but he is miles better than Towns.
Towns plays small on defense somehow. I donāt even know what the difference in measurables is, if any, but with Mitch you feel his presence on the floor and this is not just the case for KAT
“E with the age old question, would you rather have a team of 5 RJ Barretts or 5 high-level players with synergistic skill sets?”
I will virtually always roll the dice with young, high skill set guys over lowering my ceiling and lowering/hedging my risk with niche, limited skill set guys with more predictable and dependable outcomes. The Knicks weren’t and aren’t in a position to trade two of them for one — as we see with their putrid bench.
There’s really not much more to say about it than that. The trade was a talent/skill sap from the get-go, and consequently has been return to sender for me from the get-go. Nothing I’ve seen since the trade changes that and there’s nothing there since the trade that would change that.
Compare and contrast the two-for-one KAT trade that was a clear winner from the get-go and remains a clear winner. That one was a net enhancer of skill.
“I was taking about the Wizards last night and someone asked me who their star was. Uhh, Jonas Valenciunas? Malcolm Brogdon?”
Definitely *not* Jonas “Valenciunas”!
BTW, I’m pretty sure that they would consider Jordan Poole, Kyle Kuzma, and Bilal Coulibaly to be their “stars.” It’s just that Kuzma has been out a bit.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5929383/2024/11/19/knicks-og-anunoby-defense-offense-nba/?source=user_shared_article
Some highlights:
And because this one is really gonna drive someone up the wallā¦
Your dream team of Zion Williamson, Ja Morant, RJ Barrett, DāAndre Hunter, and Cam Reddish not only wouldnāt be able to beat the Wizards this year, but theyāre also older than them.
E, besides more potential, “your” Knicks would have goals, right? Would it be the ECF, the Finals, a Championship? Because if Leon’s way can reach the same goal you’ll then have to agree that this was a good plan, right? Then let us know what great goals “your” Knicks would have.
A championship, of course. (*) Skill and talent wins championships.
Julius/DDV for KAT — skill-accretive, closer to championship.
RJ/IQ for OG — skill-depletive … well, you know.
No need to complicate things.
(*) Followed by maxing potential in the out-years. The world doesn’t end after the first championship.
Iāve always thought the Thibs Big Man School was vastly overstated (Mitch and iHart were pretty good without him) but if Jericho Sims keeps protecting rims like this Iāll have to reconsider.
Let’s check which skill wins a championship first, ours or RJ’s.
PT I am glad you summed that up at the end because I was lost.
of all the places i’ve chirped in my seven hundred years of internetting, kb is the king and queen of inverse reviewing my banger art. were there a blank stare button, i might not have the pluck to soldier on.
RJ/IQ for OG skill depletive? I donāt think so. OGās size and defense matter.
That’s not the measuring stick though. RJ isn’t going to win a championship with Ochai Agbaji and Gradey Dick, but the question is whether he and IQ could win one with Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson.
The answer is obviously yes; RJ contributed greatly to a curb-stomping of the third-highest SRS team in the association less than two playoff seasons ago and wing-defended in major minutes for the best playoff defense in the association. That one’s been Knickerblogger memory-holed and rationalized, of course, for pretty clear reasons — but it really and truly did happen.
lmao
I can’t believe we are still debating OG.
Swapping RJ for OG at SF probably had the single greatest positive impact on the team we’ve seen in years. The only bigger one was going from Payton/Kemba to Brunson. Both of those were easy to predict and predicted by many of us.
The idea tha we gave up scoring “potential” is legitimate, but this team is currently overloaded with scoring talent in the starting lineup and is doing a great job moving the ball, making plays and generating the space that allows Towns, OG and Hart to get to the rim and Bridges to get solid mid range shots. It doesn’t need RJ’s inefficient 21 points and bad defense! What it needs is high level defense and efficiency on good usage, which is what it’s getting from OG.
āWe were somewhere around Knickerblogger (Barstow) on the edge of the desert when the drugs began to take hold.ā
They have the 21st ranked defense in the NBA.
Their bench sucks.
Isn’t narcissism worse than solipsism? I always took it as a version so extreme as to become a disorder.
Otherwise love your posts, Milo. And Owen’s wit was missed here for awhile, glad to see him posting more. Same for Donnie.
See, E? Wit makes Donnie, curdled Knick hater, fun to read despite his heel turn! I know you have it in you….
I give E credit for vigorously sticking to his RJ shtick.
I think when you field a top 4 where IQ is your “lockdown” defender with 2 sieves and a semi sieve, the answer is clearly no. I don’t know who your 5th man is….
Not trolling, actually curious if people here consider ādefenseā a āskillā or notā¦
??
Whoever it is now. The counterfactual is everything else the same, but OG out, RJ/IQ in. And then continued out through like 2031.
The claim appears to be that a championship is impossible under that situation. That seems a bit odd.
Here’s my hot take today to make sure this OG (E) thread goes well over 100 –
“OG is a poor man’s Kawhi Leonard”
Discuss…
It is, but pure individual defense pales in comparison to offense. If offense is a 10, individual defense is like a 1 or 2.
OG is a skilled defender for sure, but the fact of the matter is a Cam Thomas can light him up when he’s on, and there’s not a lot to be done. And the team is 21st overall in defense.
The game now is pick-and-roll, ball movement, fluidity, open lane. It’s not Mark Jackson backing his ass into his defender for 15 seconds while everyone else stands and watches anymore. There’s only so much individual one-on-one defense is going to bring to the party. And it’s not much.
Isnāt narcissism worse than solipsism? I always took it as a version so extreme as to become a disorder.
it might be worse but i don’t think you can say it’s more extreme, since solipsism is a sort of limit. i would say narcissism is to solipsism as existential despair is to nihilism. at the limit the “disorders” fade to incoherence, like roy jones jr.
blank stare emoji.
We’ve all acknowledged that going from I-Hart to Towns was a huge plus for the offense but downgrade to the defense at C. We are waiting to see how it all functions on a net basis after 20-30 games or so and when Precious and Mitch are back.
If we still had RJ instead of OG the defense would be way worse and RJ’s inefficient scoring and inconsistent 3 point shooting would make the spacing and offense worse.
The bench needs help in part because Precious, Mitch and Shamet are out, but we have 2-3 young players that can slowly grow into their roles while we wait to see if Shamet can make it back.
Once everything (everyone) is evaluated a move will be made at the deadline if necessary. We have assets to make a move that addresses these issues. We don’t need a boatload of assets anymore because we have our #1, #1a, #3 and 3a scoring options. We don’t need a star scorer.
Narcissism is much worse in my experience. No contest. Unless it’s just in books.
Great individual defenders are generally excellent team defenders. You aren’t winning often in professional sports without excellent team defense. Four poop individual defenders aren’t winning often.
We got Cam Payne to play there instead of Barrett, let’s call it a wash.
Then the important, driving variable isn’t OG; it’s Mitch and Precious. That kinda makes my point for me.
Pure speculation. They never had the 21st ranked defense with RJ and often had very good defenses — including in the 2023 playoffs.
You boys are just imagining things regarding things that don’t exist to confirm your biases regarding things that do. It’s fine; we all do it from time to time. It’s just seemingly more pronounced and obvious with this one.
In the 2023 playoffs, the defensive rating was 13.1pts better when RJ sat.
I remember last year when E was badly losing some idiotic argument he tried to move the goalposts by extending the timeframe. Our optimal window is the next four years, not seven.
Iām again going to throw some cold water on the idea that Thibs is a great defensive coach. Maybe he was at one time, but in the modern game Iām really not so sure. He coaches ONE way and heās gonna coach that way regardless of who the personnel is. This particular team is woefully underachieving defensively and has at times looked hapless against some very vanilla offensive strategies.
Iām just not seeing the brilliance. He sees round holes everywhere, so you have to give him round pegs, otherwise heās just gonna try to jam the square ones in there. Getting Mitch back isnāt important because Mitch is a transformative player, itās important because Mitch is a round peg.
Maybe this isnāt a great defensive team personnel-wise, but it should be better than 21st in the league even with the injuries weāve had.
You are wasting Precious time on this debate.
With RJ instead of OG, the defense might be bottom 3 and nothing Mitch or Precious could contribute could get us to a realistic target of a top 10 defense.
I see no evidence anywhere on planet earth including eye test that RJ is a plus defender let alone as good as OG. Most evidence indicates he’s a negative on that side.
You need all your important pieces on each side to maximze that side. We are missing pieces on the defensive side.
If we were missing Towns or Brunson, the offense would suffer.
The 2022-2023 Knicks had the 19th best defense even with 82 games from iHart and 72 games from Mitch…
I agree.
I think we have to give it some time to jell before thinking about making changes. We aren’t going to be a great defense with Brunson and Towns at PG/C, but imo we can be better than we are now. A top 10 quality defense for the stretch run and playoffs should be a goal once everyone is back and used to playing with each other.
That’s all well and good, but the missing element is transferring the eye test to impact on overall team defense. You’re positing a world where we see a guy play a certain way when he’s on or around the ball and extrapolating that directly to a major impact on team defense and there’s a lot of reason to believe it’s not that simple.
What we absolutely know for sure is that OG Anunoby can exist playing major wing minutes on meh or shitty team defenses, and has for the majority of his career and that RJ Barrett can exist playing major wing minutes on really good defenses. Beyond that, it’s mostly speculation.
Offense is much more individual skill-based than defense, and skilled offensive guys have far more ultimate impact on team offense than skilled defensive guys.
There are many “events” on the offensive side of the ball that are almost entirely a function of offensive skill where there’s little a defense can do, and there’s nothing like that on the defensive side of the ball.
Is Toronto winning a lot?
Bottom line for me is that they moved out two highly-skilled, young guys primarily to fix Thibs’s defense and yet here we are like 50 games later and Thibs’s defense isn’t remotely fixed.
For some, the counter to that is “Well, it isn’t OG’s fault.” That’s fair. My counter-counter to that is that I don’t really care whose fault it is because there was no reason to believe the roster would stay exactly the same for the next five years after the trade. If the next move fucked up the defense — it didn’t really that much, but I’ll play along — then that should have been planned for. And if the real important variables all along were Mitch Robinson and Precious, and not really OG — as we’re now unsurprisingly hearing — that should also have been planned for, too.
And now their bench sucks, too.
With that, I’ll spit out my narcissist pill and move on.
Unsurprisingly, Sam Amick says the Nets are open for business, Cam “Empty Calories?” Thomas included: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5931434/2024/11/19/cavaliers-jayson-tatum-mvp-celtics/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=bsky&source=bsky
Finney-Smith or Cam Johnson would both be really helpful to us, but the Nets will get better offers for each of them.
Our defensive rating was 14.5pts better with OG on the court.
Between Mitch going down and trading for OG, we had a 123 DRtg.
Before OG got injured, we had a 104.8 DRtg.
After OG got injured, we had a 115 DRtg.
OG comes back for 3 games, we have a 95 DRtg.
Goes down, DRtg is 114.
Pure speculation. They never had the 21st ranked defense with RJ and often had very good defenses
knicks defensive rating with rj on the court relative to league rankings
2019-20 30
2020-21 5
2021-22 21
2022-23 27
if you can’t see rj’s defensive flaws you have more to see. i do think his offensive strides seem interesting and may be more than just context.
JK, Iāve made a similar point about Thibs before: what makes people think he is a great defensive coach is the fact that he demands great defensive players on his roster and he typically refuses to play bad ones unless theyāre incredible on offense like Brunson or Towns.
He is not Bill Belichick. He has one scheme and needs the right guys to run it.
Re: OG, I donāt want to only ever talk about his salary. Heās a very good player and guys like that undoubtedly help you win.
IMHO though Isaiah Hartenstein was more impactful on both sides of the ball and he makes 75% of OGās salary on a contract thatās intentionally bloated on the front end.
Maybe instead people are underrating Thibs’ offensive systems!
Weāll see how much of Hartensteinās value actually translates to another team. The Thunder are the #1 defensive team without him, so itās pretty questionable whether heās going to give them $30M of value. I would guess he probably ends up playing for another team before that contract expires.
Hartenstein looked great here because he was a round peg.
If only narcissists would come to the same end as ole Narcissus himself….
Meanwhile, it appears to be Players-Only Meeting O’Clock down in Philly:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/42486989/sources-tyrese-maxey-challenged-joel-embiid-76ers-meeting
E’s dedication to dying on abandoned hills is so strong I think he will be calling RJ Barrett “young” for the duration of his NBA career. Even the linear passage of time is too much data for E to incorporate into a pre-existing opinion.
33 years-old and still in ~95 TS+ land? Look, he’s a young, skilled player and the Star J turn is just around the corner.
The Knicks calling to trade with the Nets now would be like Rudy Giuliani calling to trade with the Georgia poll workers.
Strange time to dwell on OG’s offense. He’s shown things in the past few games that I didn’t think were in his potential skill set. Yes, don’t want him to try to execute complex moves off the dribble. But simple moves that used to fail seem to be working.
Haven’t watched RJ or IQ this year. As of the trade I had written off and would have bet against either’s potential of becoming a star, let alone a player that contributes to consistently winning team basketball. They are players that can flash as stars, but it’s a mirage. Then again I thought that about Darius Garland — looks like a may be wrong there.
What I am highly confident in is that our top 6 and possibly Mitch are winning players. Can’t ask for anything more.
Also, 7 year windows should only be a goal for teams inextricably mired in mediocracy. Please banish that phrase from the lexicon.
Hot take. The goal of team building is 1) have a puncher’s chance at a chip, and 2) execute moves that move you closer to that goal without precluding you from ever reaching that punchers chance. If you follow rule 1 and 2 you may stumble into being the favorite for a chip. But if you define successful team building as exclusively gunning for the favorite position, you end up in perpetual asset gathering mode. Sure it’s great to own multiple lottery tickets. But fuck, who wants to watch 29 bad seasons on average before you are the favorite? (there can only be one favorite) People tend to overestimate the value of each lottery ticket AND underestimate the value loss from hitting on a lottery ticket but having that ticket not fit your build. Top executives don’t want to have shit teams for 7+ years. So, for the most part, either you have an executive unwilling to suck for a long time, or you have an executive capable of making consistently accretive moves. /EOC
And thatās why Leon was earning plaudits from every corner, even me! He was consistently putting round pegs in round holes.
Bridges seemed like the perfect fit, too. I thought the idea was to have some sort of dynamic multi-ball handler backcourt like Garland and Mitchell. But we donāt seem too interested in trying to make that happen.
The Towns trade in isolation looks like an all time heist but heās so good he changes the shape of the holes you need to fit. A guy like OG is less important with Towns here than a guy like, say, Bam Adebayo would be.
Btw Hartenstein looked great in LA, too. Heās a really good player. I donāt think he is any less ācontext independentā than OG is.
I think Thibs could be doing more, but I disagree with this take. He’s been trying different things these last few games. I don’t think I had seen the amount of hedging P&Rs that we saw in the last two games. It hasn’t always worked, and maybe that’s a personnel or maybe it’s a coaching thing that they need to get used to. But I do think they are trying different stuff.
I begrudgingly love Tyrese Maxey. The stones on that guy to call out Embiid. Wow.
+1, and I’d still do this. Mikal has the potential to be a significantly better “Alec Burks, point guard,” than “Alec Burks, point guard” was. I’d move JB off the ball on some possessions in favor of Mikal, and make Mikal the full-time point forward on the second unit.
Might not work out, but pace Salvador Dali, er, TNFH, basketball linear time isn’t such that you have the luxury of waiting for the answer to the test until after the test is over. We could actually use some extra narcissism or solipsism from TNFH, in the sense of self-focusing and realizing that when he says, “I have to wait for IQ,” he’s already given his verdict on the trade and he’s on the “hill.”
I’ll even lend him my mirror!
Iāve read this a bunch of times, and Iām pretty well steeped in internecine Knickerblogger lingo, and I still have no idea what the fuck it means or what picayune point it is attempting to make.
Simple example to show. TNFH’s position is that he has to “wait for IQ” or words to that effect in order to judge the trade. That was his position then and it appears to still be his position based on recent comments.
Let’s call OG a 6 with a ceiling of 6.
The only reason to “wait to see what happens with IQ” is if you think IQ could become better than a 6. If he can’t become better than a 6, there’s no reason to wait — we know now it’s a great trade. (*)
The possibility that one/both of the players given up could become better than OG is literally the “hill” — the one that the resident narcissist is allegedly “dying on.” There’s nothing more complicated than that about it.
(*) We’ll leave aside the side point that if RJ’s a negative 2, as TNFH insists, IQ would have to become not just better than a 6, but at least an 8 in order for the wait to make sense. But to simplify, we’ll call RJ flat.
LOL. The year will be 2031, RJ Barrett will be a 31 years old bench piece and E will still be talking about his high scoring ceiling.
This debate reminds me of my days playing pickup basketball. Usually 4 of us would go together and we’d need to pick up a 5th. There was a player similar to RJ who was very good and tough to cover but his teams always lost. He’d want to run with us but we hated playing with him cause he’d try to score too much and didn’t play defense even though we’d usually just play zone.
There was a player like OG who we would always pick up cause he could shoot great, hustled his ass off and loved playing with us. We would never leave the court cause we’d always win including beating RJ all the time cause teams would always pick him up but they’d lose time and time again to us.
I really miss my mid to late 20’s…
I already had a lot of respect for Maxey after his classy behaviour in last year’s series, my respect keeps growing.
My translating skills aren’t enough to understand all the nuances and references but today’s thread has an hypnotic tone that is sucking me in…
One thing I’m sure, KnickerBlogger is a rather hilly place… š
100pct what Big Blue said. You don’t even need to be a good shooter to be that 5th guy that seals the win.
Also, OG’s finishes near the rim have been spectacular over the last few games.
Good post, BBA.
I played organized basketball for several years, but it doesn’t matter because the Knicks didn’t lose with RJ. They won. The whole idea falls apart.
But with that said, let me give you my impression from my playing days. Putting aside the hustlebunny/brown nosey element which most of us detested — OG’s not in that category, unlike some people that might be named — it’s not really that enjoyable to play with a dude who had a couple go to moves and nothing else. You can always tell when he’s thinking “OK, now I’m going to try one of my moves” and you knew that if it didn’t work, he’d never hit a cutter or even really look for one and would just make a milquetoast pointless pass to someone else and you’d have to start all over, with less time on the shot clock if there was one.
RJ on the other hand, while he’s certainly a bit hoggy, is an excellent passer. When he makes a foray, you stay involved because there’s a good chance he’ll hit you with a pass if you get yourself into position.
It’s also annoying to play with a dude who’s 6-8 and buffed but can’t really rebound for shit and barely mixes it up on the glass. RJ isn’t that.
I guess I don’t really get the “loved playing with us” part. OG’s been bitching about his offensive role and non-recognition for several years now on multiple teams. I manage egos in real life who sometimes have bizarre opinions of what they bring and at some point, even though you can’t say it out loud obviously, it becomes a “you aren’t that great, just shut the fuck up about it already,” which is probably why I spent my civilian time responding to the Athletic article.
But different strokes, different folks, tomato-tomahtoh.
I think not enough weight is being given to the fact that at some point management decided to be less of a long term development team and tried to accelerate the rebuild with guys that were already at or approaching their peak instead of players like RJ, IQ, Grimes and Toppin whose peak may be further out.
Guys like Hart, OG, Towns, Bridges and Brunson are all at or close to their peak. That gives managaement a 4-5 year window to compete at a high level and also make changes/additions over that time.
That’s one reason I was glad we added a few rookies this year. We had moved so far away from development, I thought it made sense to start restocking young players for the inevitable period when someone like Hart starts to slow down. By then maybe a guy like Dadiet is set to compete as a starter and he’ll be part of the next group longer term.
That still seems like a very tortured construction that doesnāt seem to say anything useful.
Quickley is 25 and heās no longer on a rookie contract. There is probably not some cathedral ceiling outcome remaining in his development curve. We know pretty reliably what he isā a not-so-great shooter who makes up for that a bit with an ability to get to the FT line. Nice player. Not likely to become something substantially more than that.
“RJ on the other hand, while heās certainly a bit hoggy, is an excellent passer. When he makes a foray, you stay involved because thereās a good chance heāll hit you with a pass if you get yourself into position.
Itās also annoying to play with a dude whoās 6-8 and buffed but canāt really rebound for shit and barely mixes it up on the glass. RJ isnāt that.”
For a long time I’ve been wondering how I can disagree with E on so many things, and now I get it — he actually lives in a parallel universe! Enjoy your version of RJ, E. He sounds delightful.
Then there’s no reason to “wait” on the trade as TNFH did and still does. If RJ’s a negative and IQ has no chance to ever be as good as OG, the answer is clear, full stop.
Okay then, no reason to āwait.ā Your entirely picayune, tortured, and petty argument has been āproven correct.ā Go have a cookie or something.
Well, I think both of them can become better players than OG and certainly combined can. TNFH is the one that’s “waiting.”
Or is he?
Well, since none of us has Biff Tannen’s sports almanac, we don’t really know the answer to this insufferably stupid fake “gotcha” question.
If OG was the starting SF for Riley’s Knicks instead of Charles Smith they would’ve probably won back to back titles in 1993 and 1994.
Lol love the reference. Thibs has always reminded me of Biff Tannen in terms of appearance and demeanor
RJ would kill if he took OGs minutes on that championship run next to Kawhi.
???
they had a horrible record his rookie year. They were a 500ish team his sophomore year until D Rose came along and then they got swept in the first round by Atlanta. Year 3 they had a losing record. Year 4 they got Brunson, so it was not some RJ leap that propelled them to the playoffs. He did ok in the playoffs. The only reason people said he did well is because he did better compared to his regular season and randle did not do well. But if you look at the actual game stats, its not like he took over in the playoffs. They whooped the Cavs because they absolutely dominated them up front with Mitch and iHart (something you dismissed as moneyball wins).
Then last year we were doing OK with RJ, who was having ANOTHER horrible season. Then we traded him and had the best month of regular season Knicks basketball in the 21st century once RJ was replaced by OG.
There’s still miscommunication or poor understanding of rotations. It could be the defense is still being worked out, shifting from drop to more traps and switches. It could be a between the ears issue for the personnel. Or it could be a coaching failure.
In one clip, it looked like OG & Sims don’t know who should stick with Bub. Sims takes him after a lazy pick while OG sticks with Valanciunas. Sims fades back to Valanciunas, thinking OG should step up, and Bub is left with the open midrange jumper (he misses but Valanciunas gets the easy rebound and outback).
There’s low hanging fruit like that the defense needs to fix.
Maybe even 3 straight. That team was super solid with an attitude and a marquee big.
Trying to decide if I’m going to watch the Cavs-Celtics game tonight. I really want the Cavs to get spanked, just to quiet the “Is it a super team?” narrative that’s growing, but really, anyone but the Celtics please. Might make any and all outcomes annoying. But might also be a really good game.
Yeah Raven feel the exact same way. Lose-lose situation.
“The gap in effective field goal percentage between the Cavaliers and second-place Knicks is larger than the gap between the Knicks and 13th place.”
Funny bit of the day goes to Strat! š
WHAT?!!?
https://x.com/ianbegley/status/1858720259848769644?s=61&t=rCQRO7yjlVQ7a4q4G8yX2A
Because I seem to have sent someone into a tizzy:
My take the day of the trade was:
That remains my take. Move you have to make, losing IQ hurt, etc etc etc.
I have no idea what point E thinks this proves. Given that OG is the subject of all-star and/or all-defense chatter, I am quite satisfied with how it’s aging.
We know how E felt and continues to feel. We’ll see how it plays out!
Problem is E will never lose this debate cause no matter how bad RJ plays and how good OG and the Knicks are he’ll just always say they would’ve been better with RJ.
That you’re on the “hill,” too. That was always the point.
You’re kind of trying to have it both ways and hedge — “move you have to make,” “irrational reasons” — but the ultimate “holding” of your “opinion” is the statement that “I wouldn’t have personally made it.”
Well, neither would I have. That’s the “hill.”
You’re right that losing the debate wouldn’t rest on looking back ten years from now — that’s easy — but I could “lose” it if it was shown in the here and now that I’m fundamentally wrong about the players’ ceilings and skillsets and I guess the reasonable odds of them doing good things with them — but I don’t think there’s any serious case to be made that I am.
TNFH is in pretty much the same place, although for different reasons, so it’s good to have company!
Ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Hey E, have you ever been wrong about anything, ever? Frank Ntilikina? Cam Reddish? This laughable nonsense? This wholly debunked shit?
Hill Country IPA? It’s quite good.
You’re all discussing with a guy who just called RJ Barrett an excellent passer. I mean, at this point this is more on you guys for repeatedly engaging his fantasy.
How can you possibly be proven āwrongā in the āhere and nowā about a playerās ceiling? A playerās ceiling is a theoretical construct. You donāt know what any playerās ceiling is unless you have Biffās almanac.
This is the essence of many of Eās posts. Start with an unfalsifiable theory, and then claim victory when the unfalsifiable thing isnāt disproven. Russellās Teapot.
Russell’s Teapot everyone…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell%27s_teapot
I’m pretty sure that if someone said Eric Gordon or PJ Tucker had high ceilings and skillsets it could be disproven.
“Start with an unfalsifiable theory, and then claim victory when the unfalsifiable thing isnāt disproven.”
Then there shouldn’t be such pushback. That’s another alternative, especially when there isn’t really disagreement as with the “hill.”
I’m not sure what victory you think I’ve claimed.
If you can find a team that went to the NBA finals that had a player with a career statistical profile as bad as RJ Barrettās in their starting 5, then Iād understand going all in on him at least a little bit, because thereād at least be a historical precedent that have been unaware of. But from where I sit, no good team has ever been helped by a player as bad as Barrett, and nobody as bad as Barrett has been has ever suddenly turned into a great player. Not only does he have a career negative BPM, heās never had a positive season, ever, in what is now 4+ years and 11,000 minutes old. Seems so strange to bet on reaching a ceiling from so far beneath the powder-room floor.
Iād say that a player who is 24 and has played 11,000+ minutes in the NBA with a career 92 TS+ and 91 eFG+ has already established some hard boundaries vis a vis āceiling.ā Iām gonna go ahead and guess there arenāt many players who played that many minutes at that age with scoring efficiency that putrid who went on to become true stars in the NBA. RJās numbers at his age are actually worse than noted duds Harrison Barnes and Andrew Wiggins at the same age. He looks remarkably similar to those players, except worse.
I mean, really, thatās what weāre debating here. Can RJ Barrett be as good as Andrew Wiggins or Harrison Barnes someday? Or, dare to dream, maybe RJās vaunted ceiling could go EVEN HIGHER than those unremarkable players? I guess thatās why we play the games, so we can find out the answers to these burning questions.
But in the real world, thatās RJās actual ceiling. āHas an outside chance to be slightly better than Harrison Barnes.ā
I’m so checked out on the Jets I just found out they fired Joe Douglas around lunch time. Mr. Dolan is no longer the worst owner in NY sports.
I was picturing Russell Westbrook having a tea! š
If RJ’s best year is better than Eric Gordon’s best year I will be shocked…
RJ is polarizing because he is all over the place and the mathematical average of those many places in 11K minutes is “inefficient usage soaker.”
To see unrealized upside in RJ, you have to believe in small sample size theater. My any reasonable standard, he has had two things you can kinda hang your hat on:
-His performance in over 500 playoff minutes, when the pressure and competition matter
-His post-trade performance in Toronto, 32 games of excellent play (for anyone who dismissivelyy references his 0.1 BPM in those games, that’s OG’s career average BPM, and it is only 0.5 this year when OG has supposedly been playing out of his mind.)
That’s RJ’s upside, plain and simple. Those two samples, though small, aren’t irrelevant outliers, especially the 32 TOR games last year. He played a different role on a different team with a different coach. He thrived in that role. And that was at age 23 when yes, players can still improve.
So far this year, he is again in a role for which he is poorly suited. Not surprisingly, his efficiency has dropped. In my opinion, it remains to be seen whether he can up his efficiency again when Barnes and IQ return and he is once again getting assisted on 60+% of his 2’s and 98% of his 3’s rather than the rock bottom career low 29% on 2’s and 76% on 3’s on career-high 31% USG thus far this year. Even with that said, his increase in AST% shouldn’t be overlooked…he is the team’s primary playmaker, another role for which he is horribly suited, yet his AST/TOV ratio is actually pretty good!
E’s diatribes about how we got fleeced on the deal because OG is this and RJ is that are triggering, but folks should just move on from the RJ-bashing at least until RJ is back in the role he thrived in last year. Even then, his defense is so indifferent that I have no doubt that the trade was a net win if IQ is not considered. Whether it was as a whole, or whether OG is worth the new contract, are open questions and no amount of arguing will settle it right now.
I see your teapot and raise you an: ambiance of information…
Big Sloppy Notions…
genius analysis…
E doing yeoman’s work to single handedly entertain key KB members…
providing a much needed outlet…
I forget E, are you a giants/jets, yanks/mets fan also?
like those folks whom hang out in those old carnival/fair dunk tanks…
maybe you could sell tickets…
Z-Man, that seems like a pretty reasonable analysis of RJ to me, but Iāll add that the 32 games in TOR after the trade last year are the numbers that look like outliers. That stat line jumps off the page. I do believe that RJ getting assisted baskets is crucial if heās going to be a useful player, but even with that in mind the post-trade numbers look outlier-ish. He was a full 100 points higher than his career eFG% and TS% numbers, and even with more assisted baskets I just donāt believe thatās sustainable. There is just nothing else in his body of work that remotely suggests a .600 eFG%, .615 TS% player.
Put him somewhere between his efficiency numbers from this year and those numbers, and youāre right back at the Wiggins/Harrison Barnes type player he always seemed to be, with maybe a slight bump for age-related improvement.
Staying out of running victory laps around empty hills. Instead, although I pay little to no attention to football, some here do, so I give you this quote from Kapadia:
“The Jets have won 54 games in the last 10 seasons; that ranks 31st ahead of only the Jaguars. The Giants? Theyāve won just two more games (56)ātied with the Browns for third fewest.”
Ouch. Smells like early Millennial Knicks…
OG didnāt play any minutes on that championship run. His appendix burst before the playoffs.
And itās kind of a death blow to the very stupid āimpact on winningā narrative if his team can win a championship with literally nothing from him.
None of the above geo, though I go to Yankee Stadium a few times a summer now and don’t really detest the Yankees by any stretch. It’s basically the Knicks/Rangers ported to the summer sport, so it works for me vibe-wise, although there are certainly Mets fans among the Knicks/Ranger fanbase as we see at KB.
Since the Giants recent glory years, the Jets and Giants have often started the seasons in different places, hope-wise, but somehow it seems like they always end the season with similar dismal records.
I am having flashbacks to talking about Melo with Ruru.
Going to check back in on RJ when his TS+ is over 100 at least and all his other numbers are up and people are saying stuff like āheās found a new gear on defense.ā
So opted out of watching Celts-Cavs. But before turning it off after the first few minutes, I did discover that I dislike the Celtics more than I dislike the Cavs super-team narrative. Go Cavs…
I am watching the game and thinking what I always think when I watch the Celtics: how the hell is Al Horford still so fucking good.
Not a convincing 1st half for the Cavs
They could win 50% of their games going into the All Star break and it would still be a very convincing first half.
Celtics couldnāt miss. It happens.
He was a 21 year old backup on that team and they gave his minutes to Kawhi and Pascal in the playoffs, that doesn’t really tell you anything about OG now.
Celtics shooting 65% from 3 is giving me PTSD
Cavs must’ve thought tonight was a playoff game.
OG’s defense isn’t even “impacting good team defense” much less “impacting winning.” The entire idea that he somehow impacts winning beyond the things he does on the floor is cray-cray.
He’s made one all-defensive team in his career.
For whatever reason, mostly Knickcentric cultural, people want to believe OG is some super-special defender and want to believe his super-special defense and the other “little things” he does somehow uniquely impact winning and that’s fine — but there’s simply nothing to the idea. If another fanbase insisted it about one of their guys, KB would scoff.
It’s Eckstein-ian.
I’d propose a cease-and-desist on the entire idea. It’s kind of beneath the place.
Six-point game on the green court ….
Its not just his defense, OG’s offense impacts his team winning alot more than RJ’s offense does.
Watching Memphis struggle against the Jokic-less Nuggets and somehow half of the Memphis team is hurt again.
Who is this Keita guy? Never heard of him
Owen trolling Cybersoze is my new favorite wrinkle to this weird, weird thread.
Does it help if I tell you his name is Queta?
I just wish Cyber was awake to enjoy my trolling, glad he is finding his wayā¦.
Glad this got competitive also
He didn’t stay up for Queta/Keita?
Itās 3 oāclock there right?
I think Horford is one of my favorite NBA players right now. Shame who he plays for.
For the Knicks sake I hope Horford has a Jason Kidd type year where his legs just go at some point
And when he was injured last year we played 8 games with Jericho Sims and Precious Achiuwa as our starting bigs and 2 games without Jalen Brunson. That doesn’t really tell you anything, either.
It’s alway been a stupid argument.
Derrick White is one of the most underrated acquisitions I can think of in a long time. Brunsonesque
Gah. Horford running the break after White denies that layup by Garland.
Celtics are good and well run and it stings.
Didnāt realize how good Tatumās number are. Positively gaudy on the year
The Cavs are playing without 1 starter and 3 key bench pieces and their bench still has played 72 minutes halfway through the 4th. 12th man/undrafted rookie Craig Porter has 15 points on 8 shots in 25 minutes.
Vince Wiliams just fucked up his ankle, maybe there’s something in the water in Memphis
Garland’s playing like dog shit. Not impacting winning.
Z-Man, that seems like a pretty reasonable analysis of RJ to me, but Iāll add that the 32 games in TOR after the trade last year are the numbers that look like outliers. That stat line jumps off the page. I do believe that “RJ getting assisted baskets is crucial if heās going to be a useful player, but even with that in mind the post-trade numbers look outlier-ish. He was a full 100 points higher than his career eFG% and TS% numbers, and even with more assisted baskets I just donāt believe thatās sustainable. There is just nothing else in his body of work that remotely suggests a .600 eFG%, .615 TS% player.”
Just to be clear, I am not predicting or concluding anything beyond “there are reasons to believe that RJ has upside.” If you are a Toronto fan, you are probably way more impressed with what he has done in a Raptors uniform than we are and don’t give a shit how he played with Thibs and the Knicks, three years of which were with a terrible PG and four of which were besides an even higher usage player who occupies the same space.
There are some things that stand out about last year’s stats. His average shot distance was 8.7 feet, a full 3 feet shorter than his average with the Knicks. He cut out shots from 10ft out to the 3pt line almost completely. His 3PAr was significantly lower, and he was assisted on more of the attempts he did take. This would account for a better 3PT%, The vast majority of his corner 3’s were assisted spot ups, and he hit 43% of those. Is that sustainable? We’ll see. So far this year he’s hitting 54% of his corner 3’s but taking far fewer from there and assisted on fewer of them.
I think we have enough evidence to conclude that he would not be a plus player playing for Thibs in a Randle-Brunson centric slow-paced iso-heavy offense. Darko’s style of offense and utilization of RJ seems to have worked well.
Except of course that the Raps lost most of those games and were kinda tanking with no pressure.
So if folks want to take the under on 1.0+ BPM seasons or 100+ TS+ seasons, I totally get it…but I’m going to give it a full season with a full squad in TOR before passing final judgment. In any case, E is way over the top.
MOBLEY AND MITCHELL ARE PLAYING 38+ MINUTES IN A MEANINGLESS NOVEMBER GAME DOES THE BUTCHER ATKINSON WANT TO GET EVEN MORE GUYS HURT
Haā¦ both CLE and BOS are each only playing 8 guysā¦ hope those coaches get fired.
Edit: DRed and I crossed streams
All these guys grew up dreaming of winning the Emirates Cup, they are ready to sacrifice everythingā¦.
There was a time on knickerblogger that someone would have argued that shooting 3-21 was good
The gravity of that kind of thing is incredible tho. Opens up lanes for offensive rebounders you wouldnāt believe.
Hmm, that’s one perspective I guess.
Another would be that a years-long endless barrage of “RJ sucks at every single facet of the game, always has always will” combined with an endless barrage of “It isn’t just the things he does on the floor, OG has a super-duper, super-special impact on winning!!” is “over the top.”
But again — different strokes, different folks.
Oddly enough Memphis is one of the very few places that gets all its drinking water from underground, the Memphis aquafer. It is separated from some polluted and toxic water above it, including arsenic, by a thin and not complete clay layer. So yeah, there probably is something in Memphis’s water.
I don’t think arsenic causes twisted ankles, however. Although it does have neurological impacts, so maybe…
I should add that part of the argument for last year’s data NOT being an outlier is that it is the most recent data set, discounting for this year’s injury situation in Toronto forcing him into a suboptimal role. I don’t think that makes his Knicks data moot, just that it should be discounted in his current situation.
Z-Man’s doing yeoman substantive work on the topic, but I’ll add a more straightforward version that isn’t intended to be over the top, but might come off as such, not sure.
He put up star numbers in 32 games in TO last year. If he plays like that all the time, he’s a star, full-stop. He can even lose some TS% points from that number and still be a star.
That’s his ceiling — star. And that’s not just a projection from some freak physical skills like Anthony Randolph or something — it’s numbers he has already put up.
And now this year, he’s adding passing/facilitation to the mix — which was always there, by the way.
Nothing mysterious or indecipherable about it. Only complicated if one is looking to complicate it.
Not sure what Harrison Barnes, career usage in the 18s, has to do with anything.
Will he hit his ceiling? Maybe, maybe not. We’ll see. But we know his ceiling.
Well, losing by three when your opponent shoots 54% from three on high volume in one of the unfriendliest locations in the world is not really something to hang one’s head about.
The Memphis water raised Aretha, B.B., the Reverend Al, and Booker T. Not sure what the Grizzlies problem is. Maybe they should move back to Canada.
While we talk about the Knicks taking more threes, the Celtics just went out and made the most threes in NBA history over any 15 game span.
https://x.com/timbontemps/status/1859062598806675589?s=46&t=0wqff4cNt-sCGcDs-uMExw
Celtics played a chippy, annoying game in the fourth and the officials let them get away with it.
Wankers.
I think one of the hardest parts of wishcasting RJ is that he was probably one of the streakiest players I’ve ever seen. He’d constantly have good streaks — three games, five, maybe even 10 — and then regress to being crappy again. Meanwhile, during the streaks, we’d be all “RJ’s finally arrived, right?”
So I completely agree with Z-Man’s interpretation of good vs. bad use this year vs. last year in Toronto, but his history is so very replete with false starts, star turns that fell flat, and the like, that pretty much all data is suspect. Which makes him hugely polarizing. Even his career averages are suspect, they clearly state he more or less sucks, and certainly some here think the book is written. But, you know, see Toronto last year. He’s finally arrived, right?
Regardless, I’d way rather have OG. Just so I don’t have to watch the endless drives left into traffic for the block. OG’s worth the trade and the money just on aesthetic principles.
nice work raven, reading now about coal ash…i had no idea…
E, I agree with you that the RJ have also been over the top at times, but you have largely been blindly defending him in the face of his really shitty looking B-R page. I suppose you can triangulate back to your hatred of Thibs’ coaching style not mining RJ’s latent greatness, but the fact is that OG has been the much more impactful 2-way player in Thibs’ system, like, by a country mile. The “what coulda been if only we had a coach that properly valued RJ” stuff is tiresome. Call us when TOR hits the .500 mark on the wings of his moxie.
It can be simplified even more. The reason he’s streaky like that is because he has wonky shooting form. If he fixes that form, he’ll be a star. If he doesn’t — and he very well may not — he won’t be a star.
Using him the right way matters and can help boost his math, but ultimately it comes down to whether his form wonkiness continues to make too many shots hit the back rim or go in and out, rather than through the basket. Thibs didn’t use him right, and he was saddled too much with Julius’s backwash, but if he’d put more shots through the basket here rather than off the rim, he’d already be a star. That’s on him.
I’ll leave this one alone for awhile. Diminishing returns and all.
no diminishing returns…monetize your revelation…call the maple mamba and tell him you have the magic elixir/guidance to make him a star…once he hears the pitch “dude…just fix your shitty form”…I’m sure he’ll sign on the dotted line and you’ll get royalties for all those future years of stardom…and while your at it…bring Bridges and Payne into the E portfolio of “fix your form…become a star” players…
RJ has been good on offense since he left. He still doesn’t seem able to shoot and as far as I know he’s still a negative on defense. He’s still not good enough to be a star and he doesn’t make for a very good complementary player given his shooting and defense.
Would’ve been nice if he showed more here and we could’ve traded him at a better price.
IQ had a similar effect on team defense that OG did but was never going to stop guys like Giannis or Embiid the way OG can. IQ doesn’t do as well against smaller players either.
OG has been one of the best defenders in the league. It’s plainly obvious to just about everyone except a select few on this board and is backed up by the numbers.
One player doesn’t make a defense work, just like one top-10 offensive player doesn’t singlehandedly make an offense work. Look at Giannis’s top-10 OBPM and the Bucks’s 20th ranked offense.
RJ & IQ cost $58M this year compared to OG’s $36M. We can fit nearly all of Mikal Bridges into that space.
The cloud potential of RJ is great but at some point that wave function needs to collapse into a particular player that’s actually great at basketball.
When you’re doing well you take low variance strategies. When you’re doing poorly, you take high variance strategies. The Knicks are doing well and are better served with the low variance OG. The Raptors suck and need the higher variance of RJ & IQ.
The nebulous “someday” isn’t helpful either. RJ cohering into a cromulent player in Brunson & KATs down years is a waste. OG is good now.
WP, sir… Bridges is leading the league AVERAGING 38.5 MPG. He and Hart played 91 minutes v the Nyets, not 78, but who is counting.
RJ has not been good offensively this year. Last year, yes. This year, absolutely not.
Itās early in the season, but there is no such thing as a good offensive player with a 90 TS+. That is a detrimental offensive player.
Itās been a long thread for you, E. Your fingers are tired and your head is hurting. Someday we will all look back on this and have a good laugh.
The Raptors were 11-21 with RJ last year. It’s good they optimized him though.
And they were missing 4 key guys from their regular rotation. That game for them was the equivalent of the Knicks playing without Bridges, Deuce, Precious, and Payne. Except they still used a full 8 man rotation, and only two guys played more than 31 minutes (Mitchell and Mobley at a reasonable 40 & 38).
Not to mention the Celtics played very well.
All in all a very respectable showing for a Cleveland team that looks to have put some distance between themselves and us as the top contender in the East. Iāll probably win that over 48.5 bet by early March, and Iād be very surprised if these two teams are not in the ECF.
We are currently 4th in the East and I think that feels right. I like the Magic a lot, too, but theyāre not out of reach. I think the Cavs and Celtics definitely are.
Way to early for seeding and assuming Cavs hold on to that #1 seed, but NYK highest probability path to EC Finals is to see Cavs in the 2nd round unless a healthy Philly or Milwakee is the 8th seed.